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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Arnold Cassola (University of Malta, Msida, Malta) |
| Abstract: | The origins of Maltese migration to Corfu go back to the first half of the 19th century, when Sir Thomas Maitland was appointed Governor of Malta on July 23, 1813. A couple of years later, in 1815, the Greek Ionian Islands were declared a British protectorate, and consequently, Maitland was appointed Lord High Commissioner for the Ionian Islands, which included Corfu, Paxos, Cephalonia, Lefkas, Ithaca, Zakynthos, and Cythera. Maitland continued to serve as Governor of Malta until January 17, 1824. Corfu, on the other hand, remained under the protection of the British Crown until 1864. Since Corfu was quite poorly developed, Maitland encouraged Maltese inhabitants to migrate to Ionian Islands and help build the infrastructure there. The scope of this paper is to identify, through the documentation contained in the Corfu Archives, the first Maltese people whose presence was recorded on the Greek island, how they got there from Malta, and other relevant information. According to the certificates of clean bill of health in possession of the Historical Archive of Corfu, in the 1816-1830 period, the number of people leaving Malta for Corfu included 81 men, 18 women, 23 boys under the age of 14, 5 girls under the age of 14, and 9 infants, whose age was not specified. The paper will also show that, unlike in Sicily or Tunisia, where Maltese typically normally married amongst themselves in the first years of migration, in Corfu, it was much more common for Maltese to marry foreigners. |
| Keywords: | Migration, Malta, Migrants, Corfu, 19th Century |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0505 |
| By: | Broadberry, Stephen (Nuffield College Oxford); Zhai, Runzhuo (Renmin University) |
| Abstract: | Recent developments in historical national accounting suggest that the timing of the Great Divergence hinges on the different trends in northwest Europe and the Yangzi Delta region of China. The positive trend of GDP per capita in northwest Europe after 1700 was a continuation of a process that began in the fourteenth century, while the negative trend in the Yangzi Delta continued a pattern of alternating periods of growing and shrinking, but reaching a new lower level. These GDP per capita trends were driven by different paths of innovation. TFP growth was strongly positive in Britain after the Black Death, in the Netherlands during the sixteenth century and again in Britain from the mid-seventeenth century. Although TFP growth was positive in China during the Northern Song dynasty, it was predominantly negative during the Ming and Qing dynasties, in the Yangzi Delta as well as in China as a whole. |
| Keywords: | Great Divergence; technology; growth accounting JEL Classification: N10, N30, N35, O10, O57 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:771 |
| By: | Charlier, Niels; Tideman, Nicolaus |
| Abstract: | We begin this essay with an analysis of the criticism of orthodox economics from a philosophy of science and methodological point of view. Rather than idealized models, a careless definition of ”capital” appears to be the problem. We owe this careless definition to John Bates Clark (1847–1938). Clark introduced a new paradigm that proposed that land is not a separate factor of production, but only a form of capital. His theory was a reaction to the American economist and philosopher Henry George (1839–1879) who sold millions of books and was exceptionally popular. George advocated a substantial land value tax and influenced political debate for several decades in the Anglo-Saxon world and elsewhere. We sketch George’s ideas in their historical context and give an overview of his unappreciated impact on global scientific, political and cultural history. Finally, we also show George’s relevance in today’s world and provide a scientific and social critique of the Clark paradigm. |
| Date: | 2025–08–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ep2a6_v1 |
| By: | Vinicius Schuabb |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the short- and long-term effects of immigrant assimilation policies in Brazil following the Mass Migration period. I focus on the Nationalization Campaign, launched by the federal government amid rising anti-immigrant sentiment during the Great Depression and the two World Wars. Using newly assembled archival data spanning the twentieth century, I assess the impact of these policies on the educational outcomes of immigrants and their descendants, following the forced closure of hundreds of immigrant-community schools. In the short term, the campaign significantly reduced educational attainment among targeted immigrant groups across state, municipal, and individual levels. In the long term, immigrants who were school-age during the campaign attained less education over their lifetimes, with adverse effects extending into the second generation. The magnitude of these effects was mediated by the degree of cultural proximity between immigrant groups and native Brazilians. These findings underscore the enduring consequences of assimilationist policies and offer insights for contemporary debates on immigration and education policy. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.02836 |
| By: | Ermisch, John |
| Abstract: | The aim of the study is to explore the contribution of childlessness to changes in English cohort fertility over time and in relation to that in other European countries. The study found that during important historical periods of change in English completed fertility a change in childlessness played a very important role: contributing 56% of the large rise in fertility (of 0.42 children per woman) between the 1920 and 1934 cohorts and 44% of the large fall (0.44) between the 1934 and 1960 cohorts. But for more recent cohorts (born since 1960) changes in childlessness played a varying but usually minor role in accounting for changes in English cohort fertility compared with other countries. The paper shows that there are, however, countries in which a rise in childlessness has made large contributions to a large decline in their cohort fertility since the 1960 cohort (e.g. Japan, Spain and Poland). Also, high current levels of childlessness in these countries are an important reason why their cohort fertility is so low compared to England and some other countries of Northern and Western Europe (e.g. Sweden, France and the Netherlands). Based on information on fertility intentions and historical experience it is argued that that changes in childlessness were mainly the result of an accumulation of usually unpredictable period influences on fertility. |
| Date: | 2025–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:gkqw6_v1 |
| By: | Gregg, Amanda; Ruderman, Anne |
| Abstract: | The eighteenth-century French slave ship the Bonne Société traded bundles of goods in exchange for slaves in Loango. We present detailed evidence from the ship’s trading log that decomposes the goods in the bundle and identifies the European and African merchants selling captives to the ship. Prices steadily increased throughout the captain’s stay in port, and the captain increased the bundle’s price by adding more goods and adding high-priced goods. Sellers participated both as one-shot traders and as repeat traders. These results add a nuanced picture of how this destructive trade worked in practice. |
| JEL: | N77 N87 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–08–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129101 |
| By: | Naomi R. Lamoreaux; John Joseph Wallis |
| Abstract: | In previous work we have highlighted the importance of revisions to state constitutions that mandated that laws be general and uniform throughout the state. Indiana (in 1851) was the first state to adopt a general-law mandate, but most other states followed suit by the end of the century—most of them in the 1870s. This paper focuses on Pennsylvania, one of the states that made the change in the 1870s. We show that the movement to revise the state constitution was led by Republican party bosses seeking to suppress factional strife they thought was threatening their party’s dominance and perhaps even its existence. Their effort succeeded. We argue that it was the shift to general laws in Pennsylvania and other states that led to the emergence of a party system in the United States dominated by two durable political organizations. |
| JEL: | N0 N4 N42 P0 P10 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34171 |
| By: | Toader Omelcu (University of Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | Although the term mission has not been used, within the Pentecostal movement in Romania, the work of preaching the Gospel has been a primary concern of all believers. It was the ministry of simple believers, done through direct witnessing in specific contexts, that became an opportunity to witness. However, the difficult context in which Pentecostalism was born in Romania hindered the institutional development of the Christian community, but not its numerical growth. This led to chain reactions from the country's traditional churches, as well as from the authorities who were building their own kingdom. As a result, we aim to highlight the main historical, social, and religious conditions that marked the course of the Pentecostal mission in inter-war Romania and how they influenced the missionary trajectory of the Christian community. |
| Keywords: | Context, Mission, Conditions, Pentecostalism, Numerical Growth |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0545 |
| By: | Cara Ebert; Leander Heldring; James A. Robinson; Sebastian Vollmer |
| Abstract: | We study the role of the English Industrial Revolution in promoting social mobility and ending the society of orders: one based on rigid social categories and regulated by inherited characteristics. We combine two new datasets on individual wealth holdings before and after the Industrial Revolution. Our main finding is that noble and gentry titles as well as surnames explain significantly less of the variation in wealth after the Industrial Revolution. Moreover, these declines are substantially larger in the parts of England most impacted by the Revolution. We also explore the extent to which different characteristics predict being rich. We then study a key facet of this increased social mobility - geographical and occupational mobility. We show that people with surnames that were more mobile tended to be in the north and working in manufacturing. Moreover, areas that experienced greater outward mobility were more urbanized; less agrarian; had institutionalized markets; more gentry; were poorer (as proxied by tax revenues); and were more likely to be the residence of a member of parliament. |
| JEL: | D31 J60 N63 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34153 |
| By: | Massimo Cervesato (Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | This article contrasts the ontological foundations of two major strands of the public choice tradition: the Virginia school, led by James M. Buchanan, and the Bloomington school, represented by Vincent and Elinor Ostrom. While their early collaboration was grounded in a shared ambition to apply economic reasoning to political analysis, the Bloomington school remained long marginalized. Its renewed visibility following Elinor Ostrom's Nobel Prize in 2009 has prompted efforts to reconcile the two schools. This article argues, however, that such reconciliations are only possible at the cost of simplification, which overlooks an ontological divide concerning the nature of collective action and the so-called 'constitutional moment'. Buchanan's framework, centered on exchange among rational individuals and the principle of unanimity, stands in sharp contrast to the Ostroms' institutionalist approach, which emphasizes reciprocity and the formation of "communities of shared understanding" as the foundation of collective action. These ontological differences underpin distinct methodological commitments and ultimately entail important nuances in their practical approaches to public sector governance. In highlighting this contrast, the article also advances the relevance of social ontology as a conceptual lens for the history of economic thought |
| Keywords: | Constitutional Choice; Ostrom (Elinor); Ostrom (Vincent); Buchanan (James, M); Social Ontology; Rules; Methodological Individualism |
| JEL: | B25 B31 B41 B52 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:25017 |
| By: | Bartscher, Alina K.; Kuhn, Moritz; Schularick, Moritz; Steins, Ulrike I. |
| Abstract: | Using new household-level data, we study the secular increase in U.S. household debt and its distribution since 1950. Most of the debt were mortgages, which initially grew because more households borrowed. Yet after 1980, debt mostly grew because households borrowed more. We uncover home equity extraction, concentrated in the white middle class, as the largest cause, strongly affecting intergenerational inequality and life-cycle debt profiles. Remarkably, the additional debt did not lower households' net worth because of rising house prices. We conclude that asset-price-based borrowing became an integral part of households' consumption-saving decisions, yet at the cost of higher financial fragility. |
| Keywords: | Household debt, Home equity extraction, Inequality, Household portfolios |
| JEL: | G51 E21 E44 D14 D31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:324154 |
| By: | Björn Brey; Joanne Haddad; Lamis Kattan |
| Abstract: | State-led repression of minority identities is a well-documented phenomenon, yet its implications for national identity remain understudied. We examine how the Soviet state-induced famine (1932–33) shapes contemporary Ukrainian national identity through vertical (familial) and horizontal (community/state) transmission. Using newly geocoded individual-level data, we find that individuals from high-famine-exposure areas are more likely to identify as Ukrainian. We document that under Soviet rule, family networks preserved identity, while church closures weakened community transmission. After independence, state-led remembrance efforts, revitalized horizontal transmission. Our findings show how repression and remembrance shape identity persistence and reflect the famine’s lasting influence on Ukrainian-Russian relations. |
| Keywords: | political repression, national identity, intergenerational transmission, historical memory, trade, conflict |
| JEL: | D74 N44 P20 P35 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12080 |
| By: | Ayoub Bourass (Professeur de l’enseignement supérieur à l’université Hassan II, faculté des sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales de Mohammedia) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the distribution of powers in tax decision-making in Morocco, revealing a deep-rooted inequity embedded in the country's political history. From the Makhzen state, where the Sultan held a tax monopoly used as a tool of control, to the contemporary state, taxation has remained a domain dominated by the executive and the monarchical institution, marginalizing Parliament and countervailing powers. The colonial period rationalized the system not to make it fairer, but to serve economic exploitation, thereby deepening inequalities. After independence, despite the appearance of modernization, tax decision-making remained concentrated in the hands of the monarchy and influenced by international financial institutions, while economic elites, such as the CGEM, have exerted growing pressure. This system, marked by a democratic deficit and lack of transparency, contradicts the official discourse on tax justice. To address this, it is essential to strengthen parliamentary autonomy, ensure genuine representation, and transform taxation into a lever for redistribution and democratic legitimacy. |
| Abstract: | Cet article examine la répartition des pouvoirs dans la décision fiscale au Maroc, révélant une inquiétudeprofonde ancrée dans l'histoire politique du pays. Depuis l'État du Makhzen, où le sultan détenait un monopole fiscal utilisé comme instrument de contrôle, jusqu'à l'État contemporain, la fiscalité est restée un domaine dominé par le pouvoir exécutif et l'institution monarchique, marginalisant le Parlement et les contre-pouvoirs. La période coloniale a rationalisé le système non pas pour le rendre plus juste, mais pour servir l'exploitation économique, creusant ainsi les inégalités. Après l'indépendance, malgré une apparence de modernisation, la décision fiscale est restée concentrée entre les mains de la monarchie et influencée par les institutions financières internationales, tandis que les élites économiques, comme la CGEM, exercent une pression croissante sur les réformes. Ce système, marqué par un déficit démocratique et un manque de transparence, dément le discours officiel sur la justice fiscale. Pour y remédier, il est essentiel de renforcer l'autonomie du Parlement, d'assurer une véritable représentativité et de faire de la fiscalité un levier de redistribution et de légitimité démocratique. Abstract:This paper examines the distribution of powers in tax decision-making in Morocco, revealing a deep-rooted inequity embedded in the country's political history. From the Makhzen state, where the Sultan held a tax monopoly used as a tool of control, to the contemporary state, taxation has remained a domain dominated by the executive and the monarchical institution, marginalizing Parliament and countervailing powers. The colonial period rationalized the system not to make it fairer, butto serve economic exploitation, thereby deepening inequalities. After independence, despite theappearance of modernization, tax decision-making remained concentrated in the hands of the monarchy and influenced by international financial institutions, while economic elites, such as the CGEM, have exerted growing pressure. This system, marked by a democratic deficit and lack of transparency, contradicts the official discourse on tax justice. To address this, it is essential to strengthen parliamentary autonomy, ensure genuine representation, and transform taxation into a lever for redistribution and democratic legitimacy. |
| Keywords: | tax history, taxation authority, tax state, gouvernance fiscale, histoire fiscale, État fiscal, pouvoir fiscal, Décision fiscale, démocratie fiscale |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05226752 |
| By: | Klieber, Karin; Coulombe, Philippe Goulet |
| Abstract: | Local projections (LPs) are widely used in empirical macroeconomics to estimate impulse responses to policy interventions. Yet, in many ways, they are black boxes. It is often unclear what mechanism or historical episodes drive a particular estimate. We introduce a new decomposition of LP estimates into the sum of contributions of historical events, which is the product, for each time stamp, of a weight and the realization of the response variable. In the least squares case, we show that these weights admit two interpretations. First, they represent purified and standardized shocks. Second, they serve as proximity scores between the projected policy intervention and past interventions in the sample. Notably, this second interpretation extends naturally to machine learning methods, many of which yield impulse responses that, while nonlinear in predictors, still aggregate past outcomes linearly via proximity-based weights. Applying this framework to shocks in monetary and fiscal policy, global temperature, and the excess bond premium, we find that easily identifiable events—such as Nixon’s interference with the Fed, stagflation, World War II, and the Mount Agung volcanic eruption—emerge as dominant drivers of oftenheavily concentrated impulse response estimates. JEL Classification: C32, C53, E31, E52, E62 |
| Keywords: | climate, financial shocks, fiscal multipliers, local projections, monetary policy |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253105 |
| By: | Lu Dong (School of Slavonic and East European Studies, London, England) |
| Abstract: | This study employs public choice theory to analyze how the interplay of geopolitical aspirations and domestic interest-group competition shaped economic transition policies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) following the collapse of socialism. Focusing on Poland and Hungary (1989–2004), the research examines how political elites balanced demands for rapid EU and NATO integration against rent-seeking behaviors by domestic actor, such as former nomenklatura networks, emerging oligarchs, and labor unions, during privatization and market liberalization. The study argues that the urgency to “rejoin Europe†geopolitically created perverse incentives, enabling elites to prioritize symbolic compliance with Western institutions over equitable institutional reforms. Findings reveal that privatization schemes often served as tools for consolidating political patronage rather than fostering competitive markets, while fiscal policies accommodated both EU austerity mandates and localized clientelism. This duality produced hybrid economic systems characterized by formal neoliberal frameworks and informal crony capitalist practices. The research challenges narratives of CEE transitions as purely technocratic successes, instead highlighting how public choice dynamics entrenched inequalities that persist in contemporary debates over democratic backsliding and EU cohesion. By integrating the history of economic thought with international relations theory, this work contributes to interdisciplinary debates on the political economy of post-socialist transitions and offers cautionary insights for states navigating geopolitical pressures amid institutional fragility. |
| Keywords: | Public Choice, Post-Socialist Transition, Rent-Seeking Behaviour, Geopolitical Integration |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0508 |
| By: | Erik Madsen; Martin Rotemberg; Sharon Traiberman; Shizhuo Wang |
| Abstract: | Evasion is a key obstacle to raising customs revenue. We study how improved administrative capacity enables governments to combat evasion by redesigning tariff codes. Using newly compiled historical records from the Early American Republic, we show that as Customs administration matured, the tariff code became more complex and more reliant on specific (quantity-based) tariffs in preference to ad valorem (value-based) ones. We develop an equilibrium model of tariff administration with costly verification of declared values that explains these twin trends: Administrative capacity allows Customs officials to disaggregate goods and assess tailored specific tariffs, obviating misvaluation while minimizing price distortions. The model successfully predicts several additional empirical patterns: Specific tariffs tend to be assessed on goods that are homogeneous, cheap, or lightly taxed. |
| JEL: | D82 F10 H26 N41 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34143 |
| By: | Ioan Szasz (Pentecostal Theological Institute in Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | This paper offers a comprehensive and critical exploration of the Christian perspective on war through theological, biblical, historical, and ethical lenses. It examines the tension between the Old Testament's accounts of divinely sanctioned warfare and the New Testament’s radical ethic of peace and nonviolence. The study analyzes key ethical paradigms embraced by Christian thinkers—activism, pacifism, and selectivism—highlighting their theological justifications and implications. Central attention is given to the development of Just War Theory, from its foundational articulation by Augustine and Aquinas to its modern applications in addressing nuclear warfare, terrorism, and humanitarian interventions. Eastern Orthodoxy's approach is examined as a model of tragic necessity, emphasizing war’s toleration rather than glorification. Ultimately, the study affirms that Christian ethics perceive war as a result of human fallenness, only permissible under strict moral constraints, never as an ideal. It concludes that Christians are called to be peacemakers, actively pursuing justice while rejecting violence as a normative means for resolving conflict. |
| Keywords: | Christian Ethics, War, Pacifism, Just War Theory, Activism, Peace, Violence |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0538 |
| By: | Carlos Madeira |
| Abstract: | This work shows the impact of financial crises across industries and the total manufacturing sector. I find both a direct impact of financial crises on all manufacturing growth and an additional effect through an external finance dependence channel. Externally dependent industries experience lower growth during banking and currency crises, especially in emerging markets and developing economies. Banking, currency and sovereign debt crises cause an average reduction in total manufacturing growth of 2.7%, 6% and 1%, respectively, with the direct effect being the most significant component. Finally, I show that macroprudential policies adopted after the Great Financial Crisis attenuated the fall in growth caused by banking crises. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1044 |
| By: | Yuchen Guo; Matthew O. Jackson; Ruixue Jia |
| Abstract: | Do social networks and peer influence shape major life decisions in highly polarized settings? We explore this question by examining how peers influenced the allegiances of West Point cadets during the American Civil War. Leveraging quasi-random variations in the proportion of cadets from Free States, we analyze how these differences affected decisions about which army to join. We find that a higher proportion of classmates from Free States significantly increased the likelihood that cadets from Slave States joined the Union Army, while almost all cadets from Free States joined the Union Army (if they decided to join the war). We further examine how cadets' decisions affected their military rank and career outcomes. Our findings highlight that peers still influence choices even when they are life-altering and occur during periods of extreme polarization. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.09419 |
| By: | Alexandros Koskinas (Department of Economics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece); Nikolaos Chatzarakis (Department of Economics, New School For Social Research, USA) |
| Abstract: | In the third volume of Capital (1894), Marx attempts to explain capitalist prices as a redistribution of an already created ‘wealth’ from the production process, along with profitability portraited as the ‘economic result’ of the exploitation of labor. To do so, he presented an algorithm for transforming the labor values into prices of production, which are defined in such a way as to follow the capitalist laws of exchange. Marx’s method was deemed inadequate, and attempts were made to ‘correct’ it, resulting to the well-known result of the impossibility of simultaneously satisfying the Marxian Equivalences (Bortkiewicz 1907). This shortcoming has led to a rich literature on the ‘transformation problem’, as well as to many different proposals for its solution; however, none of them has so far succeeded in being promoted as the undisputed solution to the ‘transformation problem’. In this paper, we argue that this limitation is not, as argued in the literature, a result of the futility of Labor Theory of Value to capture the exchange processes, but that of the identification of the (Sraffian) exchange prices with the (Marxian) prices of production. Moreover, we propose yet another solution to the ‘transformation problem’ by providing a new definition of prices of production, distinct from that of exchange prices, which consistently indicates a specific redistribution of the labor values in the process of circulation; under this definition, both equivalences posed by Marx are satisfied. Finally, we also present the main methods proposed to solve the (static) ‘transformation problem’ that are found in the literature, according to the interpretation they attribute to the transformation, and a numerical example, so as to distinguish them from the solution proposed in the paper. |
| Keywords: | Labor theory of value, transformation problem, prices of production |
| JEL: | B14 B24 B51 D46 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:new:wpaper:2513 |
| By: | Feizi, Farhad; Testa, Francesco |
| Abstract: | Growing studies are challenging the overgeneralization of entrepreneurial discourse as a reason for turning it into an empty label. Merged with its manufactured global popularity, they underscore the ideological-political services that such an elastic, in content, and popular, in form, notion can offer to its powerful adopters. Exploring how far this elasticity can go to be utilized by a political leader with anti-American ideology, and why, unlike his counterparts, he embraces entrepreneurial discourse, the present work studies the narrative of entrepreneurship in the words of Iran’s Supreme Leader and its discursive reflection in different media and attempts to theorize it by the logic of international relations. The study reveals six aspects of his politicized conception of entrepreneurship, and the extent to which written and visual media have amplified each. Moreover, it proposes that liberal mimicry can theorize his adoption of entrepreneurial discourse in form while strategically customizing its content. |
| Date: | 2025–08–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7y3am_v1 |
| By: | Joseph G. Altonji; John Eric Humphries; Yagmur Yuksel; Ling Zhong |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the gender gap in log earnings among full-time, college-educated workers born between 1931 and 1984. Using data from the National Survey of College Graduates and other sources, we decompose the gender earnings gap across birth cohorts into three components: (i) gender differences in the relative returns to undergraduate and graduate fields, (ii) gender-specific trends in undergraduate field, graduate degree attainment, and graduate field, and (iii) a cohort-specific “residual component” that shifts the gender gap uniformly across all college graduates. We have three main findings. First, when holding the relative returns to fields constant, changes in fields of study contribute 0.128 to the decline in the gender gap. However, this decline is partially offset by cohort trends in the relative returns to specific fields that favored men over women, reducing the contribution of field-of-study changes to the decline to 0.055. Second, gender differences in the relative returns to undergraduate and graduate fields of study contribute to the earnings gap, but they play a limited role in explaining its decline over time. Third, much of the convergence in earnings between the 1931 and 1950 cohorts is due to a declining “residual component.” The residual component remains stable for cohorts born between 1951 and the late 1970s, after which it resumes its decline. |
| JEL: | I24 I26 J16 J31 J7 N32 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34133 |
| By: | Luca Gavril Denes (Aurel Vlaicu University of Arad, Romania) |
| Abstract: | Throughout the centuries, as the Church—united with the state—strayed further and further from the truth of the Holy Scriptures, various groups of Christians strove to remain faithful to the pure teachings of the New Testament. Thus, God never remained without His people, people who confessed Him both by their lives and with their mouths, even at the risk of their lives. Among these groups, the Donatists, Waldensians, and Anabaptists are particularly noteworthy. Subjected to savage persecution by the Western Church, harassed everywhere, tortured, slaughtered, and largely massacred, these people "did not love their lives, even unto death." As the author of the Epistle to the Hebrews says: "...some, in order to obtain a better resurrection, did not want to receive the deliverance that was offered to them and were tortured. Others suffered mockery, beatings, chains, and imprisonment; they were stoned, sawed in two, tortured; they died by the sword; they went about in sheepskins and goatskins, destitute, afflicted, mistreated—of whom the world was not worthy—wandering in deserts and mountains, in caves and holes in the ground" (Hebrews 11:35-38). This study aims to explore these spiritual awakenings and the courageous communities and individuals behind them, showing how their convictions and sacrifices helped pave the way for the Protestant Reformation. |
| Keywords: | spiritual awakenings, Protestants, religious reforms, Waldensians, mystics, Wycliffe, Hus |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0547 |
| By: | Carlos So (The Treasury) |
| Abstract: | This analytical note finds that discretionary fiscal policy was acyclical on average from 1988 to 2024. Within this sample period, there are indications that discretionary fiscal policy was counter-cyclical in some periods and pro-cyclical during others. The results suggest that discretionary fiscal policy was counter-cyclical from the mid-1990s up to the start of the COVID 19 pandemic. In contrast, the results suggest that fiscal policy was pro cyclical in the early 1990s and during 2021-2024. A review of the historical events at the time suggests some reasons why this may have occurred. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, pressures on fiscal sustainability motivated fiscal consolidation even as the economy was weak. From 2020, fiscal policy loosened in response to the COVID-19 pandemic with the intention that this would be counter-cyclical to reduce the severity of the anticipated economic downturn. From late 2020 however, the economy turned out to be much stronger than expected (perhaps, in part, caused by the strength of fiscal stimulus itself, along with substantially looser monetary conditions). Combined with expenditure that was enduring rather than temporary, this resulted in large fiscal deficits while the economy was operating above capacity. |
| JEL: | E62 |
| Date: | 2025–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nzt:nztans:an25/04 |
| By: | Brainerd, Elizabeth (Brandeis University); Malkova, Olga (University of California, Irvine) |
| Abstract: | Do religious beliefs affect responses to fertility incentives? We examine a 1982 maternity benefits expansion in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in a difference-in-differences framework with similar East European countries as comparisons. To isolate the importance of religion, we compare women who did and did not grow up in religious households when religion was formally outlawed, resulting in similar adult characteristics among women in the Baltics by importance of religion. Maternity benefits increased fertility only among women who grew up in religious families, providing novel evidence that cultural norms transmitted through the family can amplify the effects of public policies. |
| Keywords: | parental leave, family policies, culture, fertility, religion |
| JEL: | J13 J18 P20 Z10 Z12 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18081 |
| By: | Hiroto Sato; Konan Shimizu |
| Abstract: | In social learning environments, agents acquire information from both private signals and the observed actions of predecessors, referred to as history. We define the value of history as the gain in expected payoff from accessing both the private signal and history, compared to relying on the signal alone. We first characterize the information structures that maximize this value, showing that it is highest under a mixture of full information and no information. We then apply these insights to a model of markets for history, where a monopolistic data seller collects and sells access to history. In equilibrium, the seller's dynamic pricing becomes the value of history for each agent. This gives the seller incentives to increase the value of history by designing the information structure. The seller optimal information discloses less information than the socially optimal level. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.11029 |
| By: | Timothy J. Kehoe; Xing Xu |
| Abstract: | In the late 1980s, Mexico opened itself to international trade and foreign investment, followed in the early 1990s by China. China and Mexico are still the two countries characterized as middle-income by the World Bank with the highest levels of merchandise exports. Although their measures of openness have been comparable, these two countries have had sharply different economic performances: China has achieved spectacular growth, whereas Mexico’s growth has been disappointingly modest. In this article, we extend the analysis of Kehoe and Ruhl (2010) to account for the differences in these experiences. We show that China opened its economy while it was still achieving rapid growth from shifting employment out of agriculture and into manufacturing while Mexico opened long after its comparable phase of structural transformation. China is only now catching up with Mexico in terms of GDP per working-age person, and it still lags behind in terms of the fraction of its population engaged in agriculture. Furthermore, we argue that China has been able to move up a ladder of quality and technological sophistication in the composition of its exports and production, while Mexico seems to be stuck exporting a fixed set of products to its North American neighbors. |
| JEL: | F43 O32 O47 O57 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34181 |
| By: | Zehra Usta; Martin Andersson; Katarzyna Kopczewska; Maria Kubara |
| Abstract: | A common proposition is that certain technologies play a catalytic role in regions by paving the way for the emergence of new related technologies, contributing to the development and diversification of technology clusters. This paper employs unsupervised machine learning algorithms with temporally informed association rule mining to identify catalytic patents in clusters in the UK. Using data spanning over 30 years (1980-2015) we show clear asymmetric relationships between patents. Some act as evident catalysts that drive future patent activity in clusters. The results point to a strong empirical relevance of asymmetric relatedness between patents in the development of clusters of technology. They also highlight the usefulness of machine learning algorithms to better understand the long-term evolution of clusters and show how temporally informed association rule mining can be used to analyses asymmetries in relatedness and to identify catalyst technologies. |
| Keywords: | clusters, innovation, cluster dynamics, technological relatedness, asymmetric relatedness, innovation catalysts, patents |
| JEL: | O31 O33 R12 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2528 |
| By: | Chiavini, Nicholas |
| Abstract: | Albany, New York’s historic streetcar network, decommissioned in 1946, played a central role in shaping the city’s development and the vestiges of this now defunct transit system are clearly visible. While much of the literature on the legacy of streetcar networks has focused on urban form and density, fewer studies have examined their continued influence on contemporary transit ridership and policy. This research investigates whether Albany’s former streetcar corridors continue to sustain elevated transit ridership and whether current land use and transportation policies effectively leverage this historic transit legacy. Using a mixed-methods approach, this research combines geospatial analysis, ridership data, demographic and land use trends, and policy review. A key component was the digitization of Albany’s 1923 streetcar network in Geographic Information Systems (GIS), enabling spatial comparisons with the city’s current transit conditions. Findings show that bus stops located along former streetcar routes experience significantly higher ridership than non-streetcar stops and are characterized by higher housing density and lower car ownership rates. These results reinforce earlier studies documenting the persistence of streetcar-era development patterns, particularly the concentration of density and transit-supportive land uses along former lines, while also extending the literature by directly connecting these legacies to present-day ridership. The Capital District Transportation Authority’s Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) lines also largely align with these historic corridors, underscoring their continued importance as transit spines in the city. Despite these historic advantages, this research found that Albany’s zoning and land use regulations often fail to reinforce these corridors, permitting development patterns that undermine their transit potential. The results highlight the need for policies that integrate land use and transportation planning, ensuring that new development leverages the city’s streetcar legacy for contemporary transit success. The enduring influence of Albany’s streetcar network demonstrates how historic infrastructure continues to shape mobility patterns and offers lessons for cities seeking to strengthen transit-oriented development today. |
| Date: | 2025–08–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:r6nfh_v1 |
| By: | Tianyu Fan |
| Abstract: | This paper establishes geopolitical relations as a first-order determinant of economic growth. We construct a novel event-based measure of bilateral geopolitical alignment by employing large language models with web search capabilities to analyze over 440, 000 political events across 196 countries from 1960--2019. This comprehensive measure enables us to identify the precise timing and magnitude of geopolitical shifts within countries over time. Using local projections with country fixed effects, we find that a one-standard-deviation improvement in geopolitical relations increases GDP per capita by 9.6 log points over 25 years. These persistent effects operate through multiple reinforcing channels -- enhanced political stability, increased investment, expanded trade, and productivity gains. Across our sample, geopolitical factors generate GDP variations ranging from -35% to +30%, with developing nations facing particularly severe penalties from international isolation. Our findings reveal how geopolitical alignment shapes economic prosperity in an increasingly fragmented global economy. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.04833 |
| By: | Mark Fisher; John Severini |
| Abstract: | This study demonstrates the extent to which prominent debates about the future of AI are best understood as subjective, philosophical disagreements over the history and future of technological change rather than as objective, material disagreements over the technologies themselves. It focuses on the deep disagreements over whether artificial general intelligence (AGI) will prove transformative for human society; a question that is analytically prior to that of whether this transformative effect will help or harm humanity. The study begins by distinguishing two fundamental camps in this debate. The first of these can be identified as "transformationalists, " who argue that continued AI development will inevitably have a profound effect on society. Opposed to them are "skeptics, " a more eclectic group united by their disbelief that AI can or will live up to such high expectations. Each camp admits further "strong" and "weak" variants depending on their tolerance for epistemic risk. These stylized contrasts help to identify a set of fundamental questions that shape the camps' respective interpretations of the future of AI. Three questions in particular are focused on: the possibility of non-biological intelligence, the appropriate time frame of technological predictions, and the assumed trajectory of technological development. In highlighting these specific points of non-technical disagreement, this study demonstrates the wide range of different arguments used to justify either the transformationalist or skeptical position. At the same time, it highlights the strong argumentative burden of the transformationalist position, the way that belief in this position creates competitive pressures to achieve first-mover advantage, and the need to widen the concept of "expertise" in debates surrounding the future development of AI. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.16692 |
| By: | Domnisoru, Ciprian (Aalto University); Malinovskaya, Anna (Yale University); Taylor, Evan J. (University of Arizona) |
| Abstract: | We quantify the effect of education on mortality using a linkage of the full count 1940, 2000, and 2010 US census files and the Numident death records file. Our sample is composed of children aged 0-18 in 1940, observed living with at least one parent, for whom we can construct a rich set of parental and neighborhood characteristics. We estimate effects of educational attainment in 1940 on survival to 2000, as well as the effects of completed education, observed in 2000, on 10-year survival to 2010. The educational gradients in longevity that we estimate are robust to the inclusion of detailed individual, parental, household, neighborhood and county covariates. Given our full population census sample, we also explore rich patterns of heterogeneity and examine the effect of mediators of the education-mortality relationship. The mediators we consider in this study explain more than half of the relationship between education and mortality. We further show that the mechanisms underlying the education-mortality gradient might be different at different margins of educational attainment. |
| Keywords: | mortality, health, education |
| JEL: | I1 I2 J1 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18085 |