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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
By: | David de la Croix (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Mara Vitale (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)) |
Abstract: | 131 popes ruled the Catholic Church from the year 1000 to 1800. Using the database we constructed on early European academia, we find that 21 of them held academic positions prior to their election. We show that these professors who would become popes were not different from non-academic popes in terms of productivity (number of elected cardinals and saints, number of bulls promulgated), but generally came from humbler backgrounds. An interesting pattern emerges: the 21 academic popes were all elected before 1625. From this pattern, we conjecture three complementary explanations. (1) With the Scientific Revolution, early modern universities became more secular or declined compared to their medieval predecessors. (2) The papacy was captured by Roman aristocratic families during the Early Modern Period, which barred outsiders from accessing it. (3) Following the Council of Trent, seminaries provided an alternative path for religious knowledge. |
Keywords: | Social Mobility, Church and Universities, Human Capital in History, Early Modern Institutions, Historical Political Economy |
JEL: | N33 I25 D63 |
Date: | 2025–07–29 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2025011 |
By: | Karan, Mehmet Baha; Westerman, Wim (University of Groningen) |
Abstract: | Probably, the Knights Templar as bankers of the Crusaders and softeners of the Churchs view on taking interest, impressed early Italian bankers. In particular, the Medici family from Florence established good relations with the Church and wisely benefited from the economic conditions during the Renaissance.The Netherlands differed from prior leading areas in that banking developed here in tandem with economic growth in an open environment. Moreover, the skilful Dutch had access to financial markets and controlled them. The bank money of the Amsterdam Bank of Exchange ensured financial stabilityand fuelled economic activity. English banking started with the Goldsmiths, who deposited money from the public. The public trusted the Goldsmiths, who could therefore circulate money deposited with them.In this way, a fractional reserve system emerged. While the financial sector grew under open conditions, the Bank of England started as the first modern central bank. France experimented with paper money, but the experiment under the flamboyant Scot John Law became a failure. During the Napoleonic era, the Rothschilds appeared on the stage. Their banking empire was based on the network of five brothers in major European cities. The Rothschilds, with their strong family ties and circulating money across borders, were virtually untouchable. J. P. Morgan, with his strong relations, was the most notable banker in America's Gilded Age. Beyond this, he was successful also in heavy industries, being an outstanding businessman and a true leader. He even saved the U.S. economy from a crisis twice and co-moulded its central banking system. The Ottoman Bank was one of the oldest modern banks operating in adeveloping country. Being established with much foreign capital, it served as an independent central bank in Turkey after the Ottoman Empire. Throughout the 20th century, banking was largely organized country-wise. ‘National Champions’ such as Citibank dominated the scene, often benefiting fromrelationships in (semi-) colonies. Following the breakdown of the post World War II monetary system, thin lines between creative deal making and clear unethical tactics were crossed by unscrupulous bankers at times. In hindsight, economic freedom and liberal democracy were a critical factor in the developmentof banks as economic cornerstones. It is therefore essential that their entrepreneurial conditions are kept intact, whereas the Global Financial Crisis has shown that controls, internal norm setting and sector innovations may be helpful. Banks and their current partial replacers serve a public task. |
Date: | 2024 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gro:rugfeb:2024012-eef |
By: | Fabio Sánchez (Universidad de los Andes); Lucía Buitrago (Universidad de los Andes); Diego Duarte (Universidad de los Andes); Alejandra Páez (Universidad de los Andes) |
Abstract: | Resumen Este artículo examina las repercusiones del establecimiento del orden colonial en la Nueva Granada entre mediados del siglo XVII y finales del siglo XVIII. Se argumenta que la colonización española configuró una economía fuertemente dependiente de la minería aurífera, la cual estructuró el comercio exterior y condicionó la producción agrícola y artesanal, subordinada a las necesidades de los centros mineros. A lo largo del siglo XVIII, la intensificación de esta producción coincidió con un mayor control fiscal y político por parte de la Corona, en el marco de las reformas borbónicas. En cuanto al trabajo, se evidenció una transición desde formas coercitivas —como la encomienda y la esclavitud— hacia regímenes semilibres con bajos salarios, cuya forma y valor variaban según región, sector y ocupación. Este proceso implicó además una recomposición étnica de la fuerza laboral, con el incremento de mestizos y blancos pobres ante el declive de la población indígena. El resultado fue una sociedad profundamente desigual, donde la propiedad de tierras, esclavos y minas era restringida y jerarquizada. Finalmente, el Estado colonial tuvo una presencia desigual, particularmente limitada en territorios con alta segregación racial y escasa provisión de bienes públicos.<p> Abstract This article examines the repercussions of the establishment of the colonial order in New Granada between the mid-17th and late 18th centuries. It argues that Spanish colonization shaped an economy heavily dependent on gold mining, which structured foreign trade and conditioned agricultural and artisanal production, subordinated to the needs of the mining centers. Throughout the 18th century, the intensification of this production coincided with greater fiscal and political control by the Crown, within the framework of the Bourbon reforms. Regarding labor, there was a transition from coercive forms—such as the encomienda and slavery—to semi-free regimes with Iow wages, the form and value of which varied by region, sector, and occupation. This process also entailed an ethnic recomposition of the labor force, with an increase in mestizos and poor whites in the face of a declining indigenous population. The result was a deeply unequal society, where ownership of land, slaves, and mines was restricted and hierarchical. Finally, the colonial state had an uneven presence, particularly limited in territories with high racial segregation and scarce provision of public goods. |
Keywords: | Nueva Granada, economía colonial, reformas borbónicas, historia económica de Colombia, desigualdad e |
JEL: | N96 O43 O54 |
Date: | 2025–07–24 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021425 |
By: | Jose Luis Oreiro; Kleydson J. G. Feio; Bruno Matelli; Isadora E. S. Quaresma |
Abstract: | This paper analyses the evolution of Dani Rodrik’s thinking on economic development and industrialization between 2004 and 2024, a period during which his vision shifted from an industrialization-centred perspective to a more nuanced and multidimensional approach. The study examines how his understanding of the role of manufacturing and services in economic development was transformed due to contemporary challenges, including premature deindustrialization, technological change, and environmental imperatives. Through a systematic analysis of his major works, the paper identifies three distinct phases in his thinking: early (2004-2013), focused on industrial and exchange rate policies; middle (2015-2016), marked by the recognition of premature deindustrialization; and recent (2019-2024), characterized by an emphasis on the services sector and adaptive policies. The first two phases of Rodrik´s thinking had as common trace a growing convergence with many of the ideas developed by New-Developmentalist authors. In the last phase, however, Rodrik’s intellectual evolution reflects a return to more neoclassical tenets as compared to the more new-developmentalist approach of his early thinking due to a growing pessimism about industrialization as the main driver for economic development. |
Keywords: | Exchange rate, Industrialization, Economic Development, Dani Rodrik |
JEL: | O11 O14 O24 |
Date: | 2025–07 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2517 |
By: | Alexsandros Cavgias; Cristian Navarro (-) |
Abstract: | This paper provides the first causal test of the widely debated hypothesis that British colonial institutions promoted sexual prejudice—defined as negative attitudes toward sexual minorities—in postcolonial societies. We document five main findings. First, after accounting for differences in contemporary economic development, OLS estimates from a cross-country sample of former European colonies reveal that former British colonies exhibit higher sexual prejudice than those of other European powers. Second, Geo-RDD estimates show that former British colonies have significantly greater sexual prejudice than former Portuguese colonies in Southern and Eastern Africa, where local norms did not systematically condemn same-sex relations. Third, Geo-RDD estimates indicate that former British and French colonies display similar levels of sexual prejudice in Western Africa, where a higher share of the population adheres to religious norms condemning same-sex acts. Fourth, additional evidence from areas in South America and Southeast Asia not characterized by homophobic social norms before colonization reinforces the external validity of our findings from Southeastern Africa. Finally, mechanisms analysis suggests that the persistence of sodomy laws fully accounts for the negative association between British colonial origin and contemporary sexual prejudice across countries. Overall, our results indicate that British colonial origin notably increased sexual prejudice in societies with social norms different from the penal codes imposed by colonizers. |
Keywords: | Sexual Prejudice, British Colonization, Colonial Institutions, Sodomy Laws |
JEL: | J15 J16 O10 O43 Z13 |
Date: | 2025–07 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:25/1117 |
By: | Stephan Heblich; Dávid Krisztián Nagy; Alex Trew; Yanos Zylberberg |
Abstract: | Does industrial concentration shape the life and death of cities? We identify settlements from historical maps of England and Wales (1790–1820), isolate exogenous variation in their late 19th-century size and industrial concentration, and estimate the causal impact of size and concentration on later dynamics. Industrial concentration has a negative effect on long-run productivity—independent of industry trends and consistent with cross-industry Jacobs externalities. A spatial model quantifies the role of fundamentals, industry trends, and Jacobs externalities in shaping industry-city dynamics and isolates a new, dynamic trade-off in the design of place-based policies. |
JEL: | F63 N93 O14 R13 |
Date: | 2025–07 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34029 |
By: | Grytten, Ola Honningdal (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
Abstract: | During the late decades of the 20th and early decades of the 21th century East Asia experienced significant economic growth. However, the Philippines diverged due to slower growth rates. By establishing new and revised historical series for historical development of GDP in purchasing power parities along with productivity series, the paper concludes that almost lack of total productivity growth caused the bad performance of the Philippines. The reason for the inferior development seem to be dysfunctional political and managerial systems, with significant corruption and lack of investments in infrastructure. The system made foreign direct investments stay low until the last approximately 15 years, when the Philippine economy started a convergence process. |
Keywords: | Economic growth; Productivity; foreign direct investments; corruption; Asia; Philippines |
JEL: | E01 E02 E60 N15 N45 |
Date: | 2025–08–04 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2025_016 |
By: | Todd Gardner |
Abstract: | This study introduces a methodology that goes beyond the urban/rural dichotomy to classify areas into detailed settlement types: urban cores, suburbs, exurbs, outlying towns, and rural areas. Utilizing a database that provides housing unit estimates for census tracts as defined in 2010 for all decennial census years from 1940 to 2020, this research enables a longitudinal analysis of urban spatial expansion. By maintaining consistent geography across time, the methodology described in this paper emphasizes the era of development, as well as proximity to large urban centers. This broadly applicable methodology provides a framework for comparing the evolution of urban landscapes over a significant historical period, revealing trends in the transformation of territory from rural to urban, as well as associated suburbanization and exurban growth. |
Keywords: | suburb, exurb, statistical geography, methodology |
Date: | 2025–06 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:25-40 |
By: | Patrick A. Testa; Jhacova A. Williams |
Abstract: | Election results act as powerful signals, shaping social behavior in ways that can be dramatic and even violent. This paper shows how racial violence in the post-Reconstruction U.S. South was tied to the local performance of the anti-Black Democratic Party in presidential elections. Using a regression discontinuity design based on close presidential vote shares, we find that Southern counties where Democrats lost the popular vote between 1880 and 1900 were nearly twice as likely to experience Black lynchings in the following four years. This backlash was enkindled by local elites, who amplified narratives of Black criminality through newspapers after such defeats. These findings point to the strategic use of racial violence by Democratic elites, prefiguring the formal vote suppression of Jim Crow. |
JEL: | D72 D83 I31 J15 N31 O10 |
Date: | 2025–07 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34004 |
By: | Bergeaud, Antonin; Deter, Max; Greve, Maria; Wyrwich, Michael (University of Groningen) |
Abstract: | We investigate the causal relationship between inventor migration and regional innovation in the context of the large-scale migration shock from East toWest Germany between World War II and the construction of the Berlin Wallin 1961. Leveraging a newly constructed, century-spanning dataset on Germanpatents and inventors, along with an innovative identification strategy based onsurname proximity, we trace the trajectories of East German inventors and quantify their impact on innovation in West Germany. Our findings demonstrate a significant and persistent boost to patenting activities in regions with higher inflows of East German inventors, predominantly driven by advancements in chemistry and physics. We further validate the robustness of our identification strategy against alternative plausible mechanisms. We show in particular that the effect is stronger than the one caused by the migration of other high skilled workers and scientists. |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gro:rugfeb:2025002-i&o |
By: | Karen Clay; Akshaya Jha; Joshua A. Lewis; Edson R. Severnini |
Abstract: | This paper documents the evolution of US carbon emissions and discusses the main factors that contributed to the historical carbon emissions rollercoaster. We divide the discussion into four periods – up to 1920, 1920-1960, 1960-2005 and after 2005. For each period, we discuss the main drivers of national carbon emissions. We then discuss trends in carbon emissions in the electricity sector. Electricity sector emissions were initially very small, but would become the largest source of US carbon emissions over the period 1980-2015, and the largest contributor to decarbonization since 2007. In the final section, we distill lessons from the U.S. experience that may inform decarbonization strategies in developing economies. |
JEL: | N72 Q31 Q48 Q54 |
Date: | 2025–07 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33983 |
By: | Hiroshi Kumanomido (LMU Munich); Yutaro Takayasu (The University of Tokyo) |
Abstract: | Why can elite families often maintain their social and economic status over multiple generations? We show that adoption can contribute to the persistence of elite status by utilizing a unique historical framework of prewar Japan. However, the preference for adopted heirs may lead to selection bias in the process of choosing heirs, potentially biasing OLS results negatively. To address this selection bias, we use the gender of the firstborn child as an instrument for the adoption decision. We find that having an adopted heir increases the probability of maintaining elite status in the son’s generation by 27% compared to having a biological heir. Furthermore, we show that this result is driven by matching high-quality adopted sons with fathers who were highly successful in their early lives. |
Keywords: | intergenerational transmission; adoption; succession; family; elite; |
JEL: | J12 J13 J62 N35 |
Date: | 2025–07–28 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:537 |
By: | Robert W. Dimand (Brock University [Canada]); Christian Walter (LAP - Laboratoire d’anthropologie politique – Approches interdisciplinaires et critiques des mondes contemporains, UMR 8177 - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
Abstract: | The Nobel Prize-winning work of Harry Markowitz (1952, 1959) at the Cowles Commission and Cowles Foundation established optimal portfolio diversification (minimizing risk for a given expected return) as central to financial theory. Much less attention has been given to the first Cowles Commission study to show that diversification reduced portfolio risk: Dickson Leaven's article "Diversification of Investments" (published in Trusts and Estates, 1945). Leavens, a statistician on the Cowles Commission staff and author of a Cowles monograph on silver money, came to this insight as the result of computing returns on twenty randomly-selected portfolios for Alfred Cowles to use in Cowles's 1944 Econometrica article "Stock Market Forecasting, " which argued that, with one apparent exception, stock market forecasters had failed to out-predict random portfolios. We present Leavens' little-known contribution and explore his role in the development of financial economics at the Cowles Commission. |
Keywords: | Portfolio choice, diversification, Alfred Cowles, Cowles Commission, Dickson Leavens, Harry Markowitz |
Date: | 2024 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05148912 |
By: | Ran Abramitzky; Leah Platt Boustan; Harriet M. Brookes Gray; Katherine Eriksson; Santiago Pérez; Hannah M. Postel; Myera Rashid; Noah Simon |
Abstract: | We introduce a new rule-based linking method for historical Census records. We augment earlier algorithms based on name, age and place of birth (Abramitzky, Boustan, Eriksson, 2012, or “basic ABE”), with five matching characteristics – middle initial, county of residence, and spouse and parents’ names. Relative to basic ABE, ABE-Extra Information (“ABE-EI”) greatly increases match rates, improves accuracy and is similarly representative of the population on most attributes, with geographic mobility being one important exception. Relative to machine learning algorithms, ABE-EI has somewhat lower match rates, improved representativeness, and offers full replicability. We also create the first ABE-based links for women. |
JEL: | N31 N32 |
Date: | 2025–07 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33999 |
By: | Cosma Onorio Gelsomino |
Abstract: | This paper examines Italian monetary events between the mid-1960s and the late 1970s in the context of the crisis of the 'golden age' of Western economic development, also considering the factors that made the Italian experience somewhat different from that of other countries. The essay documents the pervasiveness of the interventions through which Banca d'Italia carried out the policy of stabilizing long-term interest rates in the second half of the 1960s and in the early 1970s. It goes on to show that monetary accommodation in the period preceding the oil crisis of 1973, as well as in certain moments of the subsequent phase, was due not only to the increasing borrowing needs of the State, but also to a precise monetary policy choice; lastly, it examines the partial macroeconomic re-balancing of the late 1970s. The vicissitudes of the bond market – which interacted with monetary policy and contributed to the financial stability problems that emerged towards the mid-1970s – are an important thread of this analysis. |
Abstract: | Il lavoro esamina le vicende monetarie italiane tra la meta' degli anni Sessanta e la fine dei Settanta, inquadrandole nella crisi dell' "eta' dell'oro" dello sviluppo economico occidentale e considerando le specificita' che resero l'esperienza italiana in parte diversa da quella di altri paesi. Il saggio documenta l'ampiezza degli interventi con cui la Banca d'Italia attuo' la politica di stabilizzazione dei tassi d'interesse a lungo termine nella seconda meta' degli anni Sessanta e nei primi Settanta; mostra che l'orientamento accomodante seguito nel periodo precedente alla crisi petrolifera, e in alcuni momenti della fase successiva, derivo' non solo dalle difficolta' di finanziamento del fabbisogno pubblico, ma anche da una precisa scelta di politica monetaria; esamina il parziale riequilibrio della parte finale del decennio. Un tema di fondo, infine, e' costituito dalle vicissitudini del mercato obbligazionario, che interagirono con la politica monetaria e contribuirono ai problemi di stabilita' finanziaria emersi intorno alla meta' degli anni Settanta. |
Keywords: | storia monetaria; inflazione anni Settanta; crisi valutarie; politica monetaria |
JEL: | N14 N24 E52 E58 |
Date: | 2025–07 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:workqs:qse_55 |
By: | Jaime Bonet-Morón; Yuri Reina-Aranza; Adriana Ortega; Ana Rosa Polanco |
Abstract: | El Catatumbo es una región ubicada en el Nororiente de Colombia en la frontera con Venezuela, que históricamente ha sido escenario de olas de violencia. En los últimos años, se ha consolidado como una de las zonas de mayor cultivo de coca en el país. Esta situación ha generado conflictos entre grupos ilegales y las fuerzas del Estado por el control del territorio, los cuales han causado el desplazamiento de residentes de la zona que huyen de los enfrentamientos. Este artículo describe la situación económica y social de la región del Catatumbo, desde una perspectiva histórica y a partir de los datos disponibles de diferentes fuentes secundarias. El propósito es aportar evidencia que permita entender varios de los mitos y realidades del Catatumbo, de tal forma que sirva de insumo a las discusiones de política pública de la región. **** ABSTRACT: Catatumbo is a region located in northeastern Colombia on the border with Venezuela, which has historically been the scene of waves of violence. In recent years, it has established itself as one of the areas with the largest coca cultivation in the country. This situation has generated conflicts between illegal groups and state forces for control of the territory, which have caused the displacement of area residents fleeing the conflicts. This article describes the economic and social situation of the Catatumbo region from a historical perspective and based on data available from various secondary sources. The purpose is to provide evidence that allows for an understanding of several of the myths and realities of Catatumbo, in a way that can inform public policy discussions in the region. |
Keywords: | Historia, Catatumbo, conflicto, inversión pública, History, Catatumbo, violence, public investment. |
JEL: | N96 R11 R51 |
Date: | 2025–07 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:region:334 |
By: | Ver\'onica B\"acker-Peral; Vitaly Meursault; Christopher Severen |
Abstract: | Multimodal LLMs offer a watershed change for the digitization of historical tables, enabling low-cost processing centered on domain expertise rather than technical skills. We rigorously validate an LLM-based pipeline on a new panel of historical county-level vehicle registrations. This pipeline is 100 times less expensive than outsourcing, reduces critical parsing errors from 40% to 0.3%, and matches human-validated gold standard data with an $R^2$ of 98.6%. Analyses of growth and persistence in vehicle adoption are statistically indistinguishable whether using LLM or gold standard data. LLM-based digitization unlocks complex historical tables, enabling new economic analyses and broader researcher participation. |
Date: | 2025–05 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.11599 |
By: | Ezzedine Ghlamallah (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon); Ahmed Danyal Arif |
Abstract: | This article explores the universal condemnation of interest and delves into the metaphysical aspects of monetary systems. It critically examines the historical and philosophical viewpoints against interest from various cultures and religions, including ancient Greek and Roman societies, Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. The paper highlights the ethical, economic, and metaphysical reasons behind the condemnation of interest, associating it with injustices like exploitation and social inequality. Additionally, it discusses the concept of free money advocated by Silvio Gesell and its similarities to the Islamic practice of zakāt, emphasizing the negative economic impacts of hoarding wealth and advocating for a monetary system that discourages such practices. The metaphysical analysis draws on Aristotelian principles, suggesting that just like physical entities, monetary systems should adhere to natural laws of entropy and equilibrium, thus challenging the current financial practices that encourage perpetual growth and destabilize economic systems. The paper concludes by proposing a redefinition of money that aligns with these metaphysical principles, advocating for the abolition of interest to achieve a more equitable and stable economic system. |
Keywords: | Islamic economics, monetary metaphysics, debt, currency, ribā, zakāt |
Date: | 2024–06 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05160176 |
By: | Samuel Bazzi; Martin Fiszbein |
Abstract: | This chapter explores the impacts of migrants on the culture of their destinations. Migrants often assimilate to local social norms and practices, but they also tend to maintain their own culture. Sometimes, beyond preserving their culture, they influence their new neighbors. We propose a conceptual framework to understand when migrants shape culture at their destination—and how. We identify two key conditions for influence (ideological intensity and power structure) and three channels of influence (cultural spillovers, organizational mobilization, and political leverage). We combine insights from political economy, social psychology, and evolutionary approaches to illuminate pathways of influence in historical perspective. Our review offers a new perspective on the mechanisms of cultural transmission, using illustrative cases to characterize the various ways in which migrants shape culture in their destinations. |
JEL: | D02 F22 J15 N30 P00 Z10 Z13 |
Date: | 2025–07 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34001 |
By: | Brandtjen, Roland |
Abstract: | This paper compares the inter-war 1930s with the post-2014 international system to identify structural continuities that threaten contemporary stability. A tri-layer literature review integrates archival records, modern governmental datasets and global opinion surveys, normalising disparate time-series for direct cross-epoch comparison. Four recurring fault lines emerge: expansionist revisionism, democratic backsliding, intergenerational economic strain and multilateral erosion. Case comparisons-Germany-Austria 1938 vs. Russia-Crimea 2014; League of Nations budget collapse vs. today's UN funding crisis-demonstrate how weak enforcement and fiscal shortfalls embolden aggressors and extremist movements. Quantitative indicators show youth incomes 13% below parental cohorts across the OECD and UN humanitarian appeals funded at only 13%, echoing Great-Depressionera precarity and institutional paralysis. Yet divergences-nuclear deterrence, digital mobilisation and global value-chain interdependence-moderate direct analogies, constraining full-scale war while amplifying ideological contagion. Early-warning thresholds for expansionism, democratic erosion, economic discontent and multilateral under-funding are proposed to guide automatic policy responses. Recognising both historical rhymes and contemporary differences is essential to forestall a reprise of the 1930s' systemic collapse. |
Keywords: | Comparative politics, Democratic backsliding, Territorial revisionism, Multilateral institutions, Historical institutionalism |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iubhbm:323585 |
By: | Susana Santos |
Abstract: | The contribution of Richard Stone (1913-1991) to the development of national accounts, awarded him with the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1984. In the scope of the first versions of the system of national accounts (SNA), conceived under his chairmanship, his attention was mainly focused on the production and consumption of goods and services. However, the distribution and redistribution of income was also addressed by him, in a way that, from our point of view, continues to make sense. This perception motivated its adoption as the basis for the interpretation and adaptation to the latest versions of the SNA, now presented. Thus, after the measurement of the income generated in the production of goods and services and its distribution through the institutional sectors, a chain of redistribution is developed into four rounds. The description, accompanied by a numerical example, involves the so-called distributive transactions of the national accounts and ends with the identification of the institutional sectors’ use of income in goods, services and non-produced non-financial assets. A possible approach based on a so-called social accounting matrix (SAM) is also briefly presented, as a possible tool to measure and model the economic activity of a country, with emphasis on our topic. This is, in turn, an interpretation and adaption of the approaches of Graham Pyatt (1936-2023) and his associates. |
Keywords: | Income distribution and redistribution; national accounts; social accounting matrix. |
JEL: | E01 E16 |
Date: | 2025–07 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03862025 |
By: | Jesús Giráldez Rivero (Departamento de Economía Aplicada (Área de Historia Económica), Facultad de Economía y Administración de Empresas, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela (Spain)); Pedro Varela-Vázquez (Departamento de Economía Aplicada (Área de Historia Económica), Facultad de Economía y Administración de Empresas, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela (Spain)) |
Abstract: | The literature has highlighted the importance of various factors in explaining the success or failure of cooperatives based on the study of multiple historical cases. The aim of this paper is to identify the determinants of the performance of Spanish consumer cooperatives using a sample of 14 societies between 1898 and 1935. The results show that their successful performance was driven by a combination of favourable economic contexts and internal factors such as greater experience, management skills, and lower dependence on external financial resources. |
Keywords: | Packaging, Food Industry, Marketing Innovation, Product Differentiation, Spain |
JEL: | L66 M31 N34 |
Date: | 2025–07 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahe:dtaehe:2502 |
By: | Hossain, Mobarak; Beretta, Martina |
Abstract: | Intergenerational educational mobility, capturing the extent to which children’s education is associated with their parents’ education, has become a major global policy discussion. Studying its long-term patterns across countries remains difficult, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), due to limited early twentieth-century data. Analyzing about 53.7 million observations from 92 countries, using mainly IPUMS census data, we find that recent cohorts exhibit increasing educational mobility across various world regions, with post-Soviet countries as exceptions. This increase is more prominent for daughters, resulting in a narrowed gender-based mobility gap in many LMICs, while reversing this pattern in high-income countries (HICs), with daughters being more mobile in recent decades. Nevertheless, mobility remains higher in HICs than in LMICs. Moreover, we identify a significant association between the expansion of schooling and intergenerational mobility. This expansion is associated with a more substantial rise in intergenerational mobility for daughters, especially in relation to their mothers’ education compared to that of their fathers. Our results demonstrate strong external and internal validity through a series of robustness checks, including data triangulation and comparing estimates from different sources. |
Keywords: | intergenerational mobility; education; inequality; twentieth century; global comparison; LMICs |
JEL: | N0 |
Date: | 2025–08–04 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128832 |
By: | Mirco Balatti; M. Ayhan Kose; Kate McKinnon; Edoardo Palombo; Naotaka Sugawara; Guillermo Verduzco-Bustos; Dana Vorisek |
Abstract: | The first quarter of the twenty-first century has been transformative for emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). These economies now account for about 45 percent of global GDP, up from about 25 percent in 2000, a trend driven by robust collective growth in the three largest EMDEs - China, India, and Brazil (the EM3). Collectively, EMDEs have contributed about 60 percent of annual global growth since 2000, on average, double the share during the 1990s. Their ascendance was powered by swift global trade and financial integration, especially during the first decade of the century. Interdependence among these economies has also increased markedly. Today, nearly half of goods exports from EMDEs go to other EMDEs, compared to one-quarter in 2000. As cross-border linkages have strengthened, business cycles among EMDEs and between EMDEs and advanced economies have become more synchronized, and a distinct EMDE business cycle has emerged. Cross-border business cycle spillovers from the EM3 to other EMDEs are sizable, at about half of the magnitude of spillovers from the largest advanced economies (the United States, the euro area, and Japan). Yet EMDEs confront a host of headwinds at the turn of the second quarter of the century. Progress implementing structural reforms in many of these economies has stalled. Globally, protectionist measures and geopolitical fragmentation have risen sharply. High debt burdens, demographic shifts, and the rising costs of climate change weigh on economic prospects. A successful policy approach to accelerate growth and development should focus on boosting investment and productivity, navigating a difficult external environment, and enhancing macroeconomic stability. |
Keywords: | economic growth, business cycle synchronization, spillovers of business cycles, emerging markets, developing economies, global integration, macroeconomic policies |
JEL: | E32 E60 F02 F44 O11 |
Date: | 2025–08 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-44 |
By: | Pascal Michaillat |
Abstract: | This paper develops a new algorithm for detecting US recessions in real time. The algorithm constructs millions of recession classifiers by combining unemployment and vacancy data to reduce detection noise. Classifiers are then selected to avoid both false negatives (missed recessions) and false positives (nonexistent recessions). The selected classifiers are therefore perfect, in that they identify all 15 historical recessions in the 1929–2021 training period without any false positives. By further selecting classifiers that lie on the high-precision segment of the anticipation-precision frontier, the algorithm optimizes early detection without sacrificing precision. On average, over 1929–2021, the classifier ensemble signals recessions 2.2 months after their true onset, with a standard deviation of detection errors of 1.9 months. Applied to May 2025 data, the classifier ensemble gives a 71% probability that the US economy is currently in recession. A placebo test and backtests confirm the algorithm’s reliability. The classifier ensembles trained on 1929–2004, 1929–1984, and 1929–1964 data in backtests give a current recession probability of 58%, 83%, and 25%, respectively. |
JEL: | C52 E24 E32 J63 N12 |
Date: | 2025–07 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34015 |
By: | Munoz, Ercio; Van der Weide, Roy |
Abstract: | This paper introduces a new global database with estimates of intergenerational income mobility for 87 countries, covering 84 percent of the world’s population. This marks a notable expansion of the cross-country evidence base on income mobility, particularly among low- and middle-income countries. The estimates indicate that the negative association between income mobility and inequality (known as the Great Gatsby Curve) continues to hold across this wider range of countries. The database also reveals a positive association between income mobility and national income per capita, suggesting that countries achieve higher levels of intergenerational mobility as they grow richer. |
Date: | 2025–07–07 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11166 |
By: | Bindseil, Ulrich; Mäkeler, Hendrik; Pihl, Christopher |
Abstract: | Central bank collateral frameworks and the liquidity transformation they allow for play important roles for financing long term economic projects (and thereby economic growth) while preserving financial stability. To shed light on early central bank collateral frameworks, this note analyses a document of the Riksens ständers lånebank of 1682 which pledges real estate to serve as collateral for a loan of the Riksbank to the farmer Olof Olofsson. A transcription and translation are provided and the document is analyzed in the context of the 17th century operations, balance sheet, and mandate of the Riksens ständers lånebank and the related literature. We recall the role of central bank credit to private debtors in early central banking, and that, contrary to some prominent views, government financing was more the exception than the rule as key reason to establish and operate central banks before 1700. We also derive lessons for today's central bank collateral frameworks and their role in liquidity transformation. |
Keywords: | Central bank collateral, early central banking, central bank operations |
JEL: | E32 E5 N23 |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ibfpps:323592 |
By: | Turkoglu, Oguzhan; Firestone, Berenike; Čehajić-Clancy, Sabina; Ditlmann, Ruth K. |
Abstract: | Informing people about historical atrocities and injustice is considered critical for sustaining democracies and preventing similar atrocities in the future. Yet, what remains unknown is whether exposure to factual information about ingroups' historical injustices, such as genocide, slavery, or colonial crimes, leads to increased willingness to address those injustices? In the first study to systematically assess the impact of such exposure in five countries (Canada, France, Germany, Spain, United States), using large samples (n> 1500 per country) and a comprehensive battery of outcomes, we find limited impact of exposure to factual information. Participants in the experimental condition reported increased acknowledgment of the injustice and intentions to dismantle it in some but not all countries. Across all countries, we find that exposure led to self-reported learning, which predicted all measured outcomes. These findings suggest that whilst factual information is important, other ingredients are needed to facilitate broader dismantling of past injustice. |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbtod:323590 |
By: | François Destandau (SAGE - Sociétés, acteurs, gouvernement en Europe - ENGEES - École Nationale du Génie de l'Eau et de l'Environnement de Strasbourg - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, ENGEES - École Nationale du Génie de l'Eau et de l'Environnement de Strasbourg) |
Abstract: | The question of spatially differentiated pollution policies first appeared in the economic literature in the early 1970s. For the past 50 years, economists have considered how best to introduce location-specific pollution policies such as Pigovian taxes or tradable permits, and on the basis of which site-specific attributes (polluter characteristics, pollution diffusion, environmental objective, etc.). This article reviews the questions raised and the theoretical results obtained. The central question is when to take account of the local characteristics and when to apply a uniform policy. Through this question, the authors seek to improve environmental policies to fight pollution more effectively. |
Keywords: | Spatialized Regulation, Pollution, Tradable Permits, Pigovian Taxation, Spatialized Regulation Pollution Tradable Permits Pigovian Taxation |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05156444 |
By: | Tasnádi, Attila; Puppe, Clemens |
Abstract: | In many professional activities humans are getting better generation by generation. This is supposed to be the case, for instance, in sports and in science. Is it true in the arts? In this paper, we consider violinists from the time period in which audio and video recordings became possible. Based on the number of YouTube views, and by employing different aggregation methods, we find that listening to violinists from the mid of the previous century does not seem to be significantly less attractive to audiences than listening to contemporary violinists. Methodologically, our analysis contributes to the growing literature on the aggregation of incomplete lists. In particular, we introduce a generalization of the Nash collective utility function for incomplete lists. |
Keywords: | group decisions and negotiations, multi-criteria decision making, aggregation of incomplete lists, Nash collective utility function, top violinists |
JEL: | D71 |
Date: | 2025–07–22 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cvh:coecwp:2025/01 |
By: | Lambin, Roosa; Muangi, Winnie C. |
Abstract: | Tanzania has made notable progress in expanding its social protection system, yet the influence of colonial governance models, entrenched donor dependency and limited population coverage of existing provisions remain significant. This case study critically explores the historical and contemporary processes of social protection policymaking in Mainland Tanzania, drawing on qualitative interviews and documentary analysis. Colonial legacies continue to shape Tanzania's economic structure and institutional frameworks. Extractive colonial economies prioritised cash crops and mining, embedding a dependency that persists today and limits fiscal space for domestic investment in social protection. The British administration introduced formal governance and social protection institutions that remain pertinent today, but they continue to largely exclude the informal sector and rural populations, despite recent efforts to introduce social insurance schemes for informal sector workers (e.g. National Informal Sector Scheme, NISS). Postcolonial dynamics also play a defining role. Tanzania's early Ujamaa socialist model under President Julius Nyerere fostered broad welfare ambitions, many of which were later dismantled under neoliberal Structural Adjustment Programmes in the 1980s. Since then, global policy agendas and actors have heavily influenced domestic policymaking. Donor-driven programmes dominate key areas such as cash transfers (e.g. the World Bank-supported and targeted roductive Social Safety Net programme), and development partners use various policy transfer mechanisms to shape domestic policies and programmes. The scarcity of domestic resources significantly hinders the pursuit of universalist social protection investments. Despite this, the role of domestic actors remains pivotal. Nyerere's legacy continues to inspire social policy thinking, and civil society and political elites actively shape - and sometimes contest - social protection arrangements. At the same time, limited implementation capacity and corruption undermine effectiveness of social protection delivery, particularly in rural regions. The study identifies pathways forward: strengthening domestic financing through better taxation and value-chain participation; enhancing government leadership and coordination; integrating informal, community-based social protection mechanisms; and promoting regionally driven, South-South cooperation. These shifts require reimagining social protection, rooting it in Tanzania's socio-cultural and economic fabric to build a more inclusive and resilient system. |
Keywords: | International development cooperation, Africa, social security |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:321872 |
By: | Roy, Tirthankar |
JEL: | N0 |
Date: | 2023–12–31 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125364 |
By: | Francisco Rivadeneyra; Scott Hendry; Alejandro García |
Abstract: | A well-functioning monetary system is characterized by public and private forms of money that exchange at par as value flows freely between them. A relevant retail public money—whether in the form of cash, a central bank digital currency or both—is a necessary component of such a monetary system. |
Keywords: | Central bank research; Digital currencies and fintech; Payment clearing and settlement systems |
JEL: | E4 E42 E5 E50 E58 |
Date: | 2024–07 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocadp:24-11 |
By: | Gabriel Rodriguez (Departamento de Economía de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú); Mauricio Alvarado (Departamento de Economía de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú) |
Abstract: | This paper examines the evolution of the inflation uncertainty-inflation relationship in seven Latin American countries and the G7 from Q1 1948 to Q4 2023, using the time-varying parameter stochastic volatility in mean (TVP-SVM) model of Chan (2017) and its extension incorporating time-varying mixture innovations (TVP-SVM-TVMI) from Hou (2020). The key findings are as follows: (i) the TVP-SVM model is preferred in 8 out of 14 countries; (ii) inflation uncertainty has been higher in Latin America than in the G7, particularly during the 1980s "lost decade"; (iii) log-inflation uncertainty is more persistent in Latin America; (iv) there is no evidence supporting the hypothesis of Friedman (1977) in any of the countries analyzed; (v) the Cukierman-Meltzer hypothesis (1986) holds, as the uncertainty-inflation relationship is positive and time-varying in all countries; (vi) this relationship is stronger and statistically significant during periods of high inflation uncertainty; and(vii) there is evidence of more structural breaks in this relationship in Latin America than in the G7. Palabras claves: Inflation Uncertainty, Inflation, Latin America, G7, Bayesian Estimation and Comparison, Stochastic Volatility in Mean, Time-Varying Parameters, Structural Breaks. JEL Classification-JE: C11, C15, C58, E31, N16. |
Keywords: | Inflation Uncertainty, Inflation, Latin America, G7, Bayesian Estimation and Comparison, Stochastic Volatility in Mean, Time-Varying Parameters, Structural Breaks. |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00544 |
By: | De Beer, Pieter |
Abstract: | The global system we inhabit is often described in terms of markets, capital, and labor, but beneath these abstractions lies the deeper question of how coordination produces power and how power organizes coordination. Among the most influential traditions attempting to answer this question are Marxism and Capital as Power (CasP), two frameworks that, while sharing certain roots, diverge sharply in their interpretation of what capital is and how it operates. This divergence has led to ongoing tension. Marxists often argue that CasP misrepresents or abandons the core of Marx’s critique, while CasP theorists argue that Marxism remains tethered to outdated economic metaphysics. Both claim to reveal capitalism’s inner workings. But must we choose between them? *** This essay argues that we do not. Through the lens of Coordination: the Fabric of Power (CfP), a broader theoretical framework that views coordination itself as the primary material of power, we can move beyond this impasse. Rather than asking whether capital is labor-time or capitalization, CfP reframes the question: How is coordination patterned, withheld, or manipulated in ways that produce asymmetries of power? In doing so, it offers a synthesis that integrates the structural insights of Marxism with the empirical clarity of CasP, not by erasing their differences, but by metabolizing their strongest claims. |
Keywords: | coordination, capital as power, capitalization, differential accumulation, domination, fabric of power, labour, Marxism, mode of power, production, sabotage, surplus value |
JEL: | P16 |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:323254 |
By: | Roberto Esposti (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (UNIVPM)) |
Abstract: | This paper investigates the interdependence among prices in the commodity and natural resource market segment. The analysis is performed using a large dataset made of about 50 commodity prices observed with monthly frequency over a period of almost half a century (1980-2024). These different commodities are clustered in five groups (energy, metals, agriculture, food, other raw materials) in order to discriminate the interdependence within and between groups. The adopted method consists in building a Commodity Price Network (CPN) defined via Granger causality tests. These tests are performed with two alternative empirical strategies: pairwise VAR models estimation (pairwise Granger Causality) and sparse VAR models estimation (sparse VAR Granger Causality). Both price levels and price first differences are considered in order to take the possible non-stationarity or price series into account. Network analysis is performed on the different networks obtained using these alternative series and modelling approaches. Results suggest relevant differences across series and methods but some solid results also emerges, particularly pointing to a generalized interdependence that still assigns a central role to some metals and agricultural products. |
Keywords: | Commodity Prices, Price Interdependence, Granger Causality, Network Analysis, Sparse VAR Models. |
JEL: | C32 Q02 O13 |
Date: | 2025–07 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wpaper:498 |
By: | Dathe, Uwe; Nientiedt, Daniel |
Abstract: | Der in der Thüringer Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Jena aufbewahrte Nachlass der Publizistin Edith Eucken-Erdsiek enthält reiches Quellenmaterial zu den weltanschaulichen Debatten der Weimarer Republik, zu Leben und Werk von Walter Eucken und zur Geschichte des Ordoliberalismus zwischen 1950 und 1985. Der wissenschaftliche Wert des Nachlasses wird durch die nähere Beschreibung der einzelnen Nachlassgruppen deutlich. Da zahlreiche Belegexemplare bislang unbekannter Veröffentlichungen zum Nachlass gehören, fügen wir dem Nachlassverzeichnis eine Bibliographie der Schriften Edith Eucken-Erdsieks an. |
Keywords: | Ordnungsökonomik, Ökonomische Ideengeschichte, Literaturanalyse, Deutschland |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:aluord:321874 |
By: | Antoine Bozio (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales); Malka Guillot (ULiège - Université de Liège = University of Liège = Universiteit van Luik = Universität Lüttich); Lukas Puschnig (IPP - Institut des politiques publiques); Maxime Tô (IPP - Institut des politiques publiques) |
Abstract: | We document the evolution of working‐age individual pre‐tax and disposable income inequality in France since the late 1960s using household surveys. Disposable income inequality declined over the 1960s and 1970s and remained stable thereafter. This trend can be explained, in part, by changes in the tax and benefit system, notably through changes in employer contributions, and the evolution of the national minimum wage. Other dimensions than income bring a less positive perspective: low‐income individuals are now more likely to be immigrants, have low education, and live in households with no working adults. |
Date: | 2024–09 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-05144264 |
By: | Bigoni, M.; Camera, G.; Gallo, E. |
Abstract: | Globalization offers unparalleled opportunities to expand welfare through cooperation across large networks of unrelated individuals. Social exclusion – permanent or temporary – and monetary exchange are institutions that in theory can incentivize cooperation. In an experiment, we evaluate their relative performance and interaction in anonymous networks of different sizes. Permanent social exclusion (ostracism) reduces long-run economic potential by leading to sparse networks. Monetary exchange and temporary social exclusion perform similarly well in small networks. In large networks, however, monetary exchange is the only institution that promotes full cooperation by crowding out ostracism and keeping the network complete. An insight is that monetary systems outperform social exclusion mechanisms in promoting cooperation in globalized social and economic networks. |
Keywords: | Cooperation, Experiment, Money, Network, Social Exclusion |
JEL: | C92 E40 D85 C73 |
Date: | 2025–07–23 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camjip:2519 |
By: | Westerman, Wim (University of Groningen) |
Abstract: | Design/methodology/approach The article studies five bankers scandals related to bankers trades in the post 'Bretton Woods' 1970s2010s era, by way of literature reviews and casual observations. I discuss currency speculations at the regional German Herstatt-Bank in 1974, Asian stock market speculations of 'rogue trader' Nick Leeson at the British Barings Bank in 1995, likewise but way larger activities of 'lone wolf' Jerôme Kerviel at the French giant Société Générale in 2008, manipulations by London-based traders of interest and foreign exchange rate levels around 2010 and the fraudulent Bulgarian OneCoin cryptocurrency pyramid scheme led by Ruja Ignatova (“Dr Ruja†) imploding in 2017. Purpose The study aims to describe exemplary banker trading scandals in a remarkable ‘open global markets’ period and to comprehend major reasons behind them, taking on board the views of reputed scholars and partially going beyond these in terms little or not used before. Findings Accounting systems, compliance (management control with corporate governance) and regulatory loopholes may create banker trading opportunities that negatively and / or positively thrilled individuals and bank trader groups may want to grasp in a culture where free market and free spirit thinking, talking and acting can enfold under favorable economic conditions. It may not pay though. |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gro:rugfeb:2025007-eef |