|
on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Richard N. Langlois (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | This paper will revisit the intersection of Chandler with Williamson (and the NIE more generally) and attempt to draw lessons from it. I will argue that despite their similar influences, from both the Carnegie School and more generally from the varied currents of post-war managerialism, Chandler and Williamson modeled the corporation quite differently. On the one hand, their disagreement had what I view as a salutary effect the economics of organization by lending the imprimatur of Chandler to the capabilities approach. On the other hand, Chandler’s rejection of the NIE also arguably threw out the Coasean baby with the Williamsonian – or, more precisely, the asset-specificity – bathwater. I attempt to outline a path for post-Chandlerian business history that retains the lessons of Weber and the Carnegie School while adding the lessons of Coase. |
| Keywords: | Alfred Chandler, Oliver Williamson, Ronald Coase, transaction costs, capabilities, diversification, asset specificity |
| JEL: | B15 B25 B31 L21 L22 L25 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2025-07 |
| By: | Michael D. Bordo (Rutgers University and Hoover Institution); Mickey D. Levy (Hoover Institution) |
| JEL: | E52 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:341 |
| By: | Gregori Galofre-Vila (Universitat de Valencia); Victor M. Gomez-Blanco (CUNEF Universidad) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a network-based bibliometric analysis of economic history, focusing on the field’s intellectual structure, institutional dynamics, and evolving research themes and methodologies. Using data from the five leading journals in the field—The Journal of Economic History, Explorations in Economic History, Economic History Review, European Review of Economic History, and Cliometrica—we map collaboration and citation networks from 2000 to 2024. The findings highlight the continued dominance of Anglo-American and Western European institutions, with emerging contributions from Spain, Italy, and the Netherlands. We also document interdisciplinary ties to economics, finance, demography, and other social sciences, and the enduring influence of seminal scholars alongside a rising generation of researchers. Finally, we identify a clear methodological shift from largely descriptive quantitative analyses to more sophisticated techniques, particularly panel data models and quasi-experimental designs. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of economic history’s evolution, highlighting both its intellectual richness and persistent institutional imbalances. |
| Keywords: | Economic history, Cliometrics, Bibliometric analysis, Network analysis |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bci:wpaper:2501 |
| By: | Davide M. Coluccia; Gaia Dossi |
| Abstract: | Novel products, processes and technologies are important drivers of economic growth. Davide Coluccia and Gaia Dossi show how migrants from Britain to the United States in the late 19th and early 20th century not only took new ideas with them, but also helped to bring American innovations back to the old country. |
| Keywords: | age of mass migration, innovation, networks, out-migration |
| Date: | 2025–06–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:708 |
| By: | Fabio Gatti; Joel Huesler |
| Abstract: | The correspondence of historical personalities serves as a rich source of psychological, social, and economic information. Letters were indeed used as means of communication within the family circles but also a primary method for exchanging information with colleagues, subordinates, and employers. A quantitative analysis of such material enables scholars to reconstruct both the internal psychology and the relational networks of historical figures, ultimately providing deeper insights into the socio-economic systems in which they were embedded. In this study, we analyze the outgoing correspondence of Michelangelo Buonarroti, a prominent Renaissance artist, using a collection of 523 letters as the basis for a structured text analysis. Our methodological approach compares three distinct Natural Language Processing Methods: an Augmented Dictionary Approach, which relies on static lexicon analysis and Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) for topic modeling, a Supervised Machine Learning Approach that utilizes BERT-generated letter embeddings combined with a Random Forest classifier trained by the authors, and an Unsupervised Machine Learning Method. The comparison of these three methods, benchmarked to biographic knowledge, allows us to construct a robust understanding of Michelangelo’s emotional association to monetary, thematic, and social factors. Furthermore, it highlights how the Supervised Machine Learning method, by incorporating the authors’ domain knowledge and understanding of documents and background, can provide, in the context of Renaissance multi-themed letters, a more nuanced interpretation of contextual meanings, enabling the detection of subtle (positive or negative) sentimental variations due to a variety of factors that other methods can overlook. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp25251 |
| By: | Inga Ivanova; Grzegorz Rzadkowski |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analyze how market prices change in response to information processing among the market participants and how non-linear information dynamics drive market price movement. We analyze historical data of the SP 500 market for the period 1950 -2025 using the logistic Continuous Wavelet Transformation method. This approach allows us to identify various patterns in market dynamics. These patterns are conceptualized using a new theory of reflexive communication of information in a market consisting of heterogeneous agents who assign meaning to information from different perspectives. This allows us to describe market dynamics and make forecasts of its development using the most general mechanisms of information circulation within the content-free approach. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.09625 |
| By: | Paolo Croce (Bank of Italy, Economics, Statistics and Research DG, Economic History Division); Matteo Filippi (University of Zurich); Paolo Piselli (Bank of Italy); Andrea Ramazzotti (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF) |
| Abstract: | Internal migration facilitates an efficient allocation of labor within the economy, but are its sending and receiving areas affected differently? We address this question through the lens of Italy during the Golden Age (1950s-1970s), a period of population reshuffling with no parallel in the country’s history. Exploiting detailed spatial data on migratory flows, we can characterize the impact of short- and long-distance migration on economic development and structural change in the provinces of origin and destination. To tackle endogeneity of migration flows, we build on recent advances in the shift-share IVs literature: we interact past interwar government-authorized migrations with employment growth during the Golden Age to estimate exogenous short-distance migrations; origin-destination railway distances with provinces’ employment growth for long-distance ones. We find that short-distance emigration negatively affected origin provinces’ value added per capita mostly through lower business creation and productivity, while it determined even larger productivity gains in destination provinces. Similarly, although short-distance immigration boosted structural change away from agriculture in favor of the industrial sector, emigration curbs it in the provinces of origin, by reducing employment, value added and productivity in industry. We do not find comparably strong results for long-distance flows, which are shown to negatively affect origin provinces mostly through the employment rate, while the effects on productivity are limited; receiving provinces are also not as affected. We attribute the difference between short and long-distance effects to selection by type of migrants, where the most productive ones tend to favor nearby destinations. |
| Keywords: | Internal migration, Regional development, Economic growth |
| JEL: | J61 N14 O12 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–06–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:751 |
| By: | James K. Galbraith; Ravi Kanbur; Kunal Sen; Andy Sumner |
| Abstract: | Seven decades ago, Simon Kuznets put forward the hypothesis that as economies developed, national inequality would first increase and then decrease—an inverted U-shape. He provided preliminary evidence for the hypothesis on the basis of the limited data available at the time, and theorized the genesis of the curve as arising from the twin forces of structural transformation of the economy and political economy pressures. |
| Keywords: | Kuznets, Inequality, Structural transformation, Political economy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-46 |
| By: | Tadashi ITO |
| Abstract: | This study revisits the question of the nexus between economic interdependence and militarized interstate disputes. Despite deepening ties between countries through trade and investment after the Second World War, the number of militarized interstate disputes has not decreased. Incorporating the political regimes of trade partners into analyses and addressing a potential methodological issue in the literature, this study finds that the stronger the trade ties between a pair of countries, the less likely they are to enter militarized interstate disputes. A trade-peace nexus exists for pairs of democracies. The nexus is weakened or almost nonexistent when one of the pairs is an authoritarian regime. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25065 |
| By: | Martin Feldkircher; Petr Korab; Viktoriya Teliha |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the evolution of central bank topics using a corpus of over 20, 000 speeches spanning nearly three decades and a range of topic models. We identify thirteen themes, including monetary policy, financial stability, digital payments, and climate-related finance. Examining their development over time, we classify these themes as "evergreens", "waning threads", or emergent "rising stars", and show that early adoption and topic leadership are nearly equally shared between emerging and advanced economies' central banks. In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, topic focus converged worldwide, with a renewed emphasis on financial stability. Finally, static covariate regressions link topic prevalence to inflation regimes, central bank independence, and speech format, highlighting the impact of macroeconomic and institutional factors on communication priorities. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, financial stability, digital payments, climate-related finance |
| JEL: | C55 C88 E52 E58 D83 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-35 |
| By: | Morgan, Marc; Souza, Pedro |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a novel assessment of the Kuznets curve for an underdeveloped country engaging in rapid late development. We mobilize new long-run data for Brazil, combining surveys, administrative records, and national accounts statistics, to compute macro-consistent income shares and other distributional indicators since the 1920s. Our estimates show a more nuanced picture for the traditional Kuznets hypothesis than what the existing literature has suggested. The major complication for the standard narrative lies in the period roughly between 1950 and 1964, for which existing estimates are either too infrequent, not disaggregated enough, or incomplete to be able to offer a coherent analysis. Given the political and institutional changes that followed, we argue that this period holds the key to what we term the Kuznets curse —the tendency in late-developing countries, according to Kuznets, for endogenous social conflicts linked to rapid structural change to be resolved by authoritarian regimes that ensure adherence to the high-savers accumulation model. We explain the political economy of the Kuznets curse through a narrative approach that combines structuralist development economics with a neorealist approach to institutional change, making use of public discourses and debates among policy-makers and intellectual elites. |
| Keywords: | Distribution, Late development, Political economy, Kuznets, Brazil |
| JEL: | D31 D33 E64 J31 N36 O1 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gnv:wpaper:unige:185943 |
| By: | Sophia Cho; Thomas M. Mertens; John C. Williams |
| Abstract: | Interest rates have fluctuated significantly over time. After a period of high inflation in the late 1970s and early 1980s, interest rates entered a decline that lasted for nearly four decades. The federal funds rate—the primary tool for monetary policy in the United States—followed this trend, while also varying with cycles of economic recessions and expansions. |
| Keywords: | zero lower bound (ZLB); ZLB; risk; Financial derivatives |
| JEL: | E52 |
| Date: | 2025–07–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:101205 |
| By: | Nicholas Z. Muller |
| Abstract: | Despite the central role of firewood in the development of the early American economy, prices for this energy fuel are absent from official government statistics and the scholarly literature. This paper presents the most comprehensive dataset of firewood prices in the United States compiled to date, encompassing over 6, 000 price quotes from 1700 to 2010. Between 1700 and 2010, real firewood prices increased by between 0.2% and 0.4%, annually, and from 1800 to the Civil War, real prices increased especially rapidly, between 0.7% and 1% per year. Rising firewood prices and falling coal prices led to the transition to coal as the primary energy fuel. Between 1860 and 1890, the income elasticity for firewood switched from 0.5 to -0.5. Beginning in the last decade of the 18th century, firewood output increased from about 18% of GDP to just under 30% of GDP in the 1830s. The value of firewood fell to less than 5% of GDP by the 1880s. Prior estimates of firewood output in the 19th century significantly underestimated its value. Finally, incorporating the new estimates of firewood output into agricultural production leads to higher estimates of agricultural productivity growth prior to 1860 than previously reported in the literature. |
| JEL: | N11 N12 N51 N52 N71 N72 Q23 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33974 |
| By: | John Komlos; Marek Brabec |
| Abstract: | We employ a generalized additive model with complexity-penalized splines to estimate the trend in BMI values of both adults and children, using data in the 18 cycles of the NHANES surveys. To ensure a consistent obesogenic environment across survey participants, we restrict the sample to U.S.-born individuals and emphasize birth-cohort effects rather than period effects, prevalent in the literature. This choice reflects the premise that an individual’s weight at any time is shaped by cumulative exposures beginning at birth. Birth cohorts are more likely to share comparable social, cultural, technological, and economic environments across the life course, unlike measurement cohorts. Our findings indicate that BMI values rose throughout the 20th century, albeit at varying rates. The annual rate of increase among those born in the 1920s was close to 0.1 unit but the trend decelerated during the Depression and war, reaching a trough in the 1940s or early 1950s. Black females are an exception to this generalization, since their BMI values continued to increase at 0.1 per annum rate throughout the first half of the century. Those born in the 1950s and 1960s experienced an acceleration of their BMI values, coinciding with the emergence of an increasingly obesogenic environment and decline in willpower, a latent variable that, to our knowledge, remains underexplored in the obesity literature. We also document the tapering of BMI values by the late 20th century and plateauing among children in the 21st century, consistent with the conjecture that the obesogenic environment may have reached a saturation point. |
| Keywords: | BMI, obesity, obesogenic, overweight, willpower, self-control, dopamine |
| JEL: | I1 N0 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11932 |
| By: | Balatti Mozzanica, Mirco; Kose, Ayhan; Mckinnon, Kate Frances; Palombo, Edoardo; Sugawara, Naotaka; Verduzco Bustos, Guillermo; Vorisek, Dana |
| Abstract: | The first quarter of the twenty-first century has been transformative for emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). These economies now account for about 45 percent of global GDP, up from about 25 percent in 2000, a trend driven by robust collective growth in the three largest EMDEs—China, India, and Brazil (the EM3). Collectively, EMDEs have contributed about 60 percent of annual global growth since 2000, on average, double the share during the 1990s. Their ascendance was powered by swift global trade and financial integration, especially during the first decade of the century. Interdependence among these economies has also increased markedly. Today, nearly half of goods exports from EMDEs go to other EMDEs, compared to one-quarter in 2000. As cross-border linkages have strengthened, business cycles among EMDEs and between EMDEs and advanced economies have become more synchronized, and a distinct EMDE business cycle has emerged. Cross-border business cycle spillovers from the EM3 to other EMDEs are sizable, at about half of the magnitude of spillovers from the largest advanced economies (the United States, the euro area, and Japan). Yet EMDEs confront a host of headwinds at the turn of the second quarter of the century. Progress implementing structural reforms in many of these economies has stalled. Globally, protectionist measures and geopolitical fragmentation have risen sharply. High debt burdens, demographic shifts, and the rising costs of climate change weigh on economic prospects. A successful policy approach to accelerate growth and development should focus on boosting investment and productivity, navigating a difficult external environment, and enhancing macroeconomic stability. |
| Date: | 2025–07–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11169 |
| By: | Kenny, Sean; Stuart, Rebecca |
| Abstract: | We construct estimates of quarterly GDP for Ireland from 1950, linking to official data from 1995 onward, using a novel factor-augmented Chow-Lin interpolation. Compared to the only alternative series (OECD, 2025), our procedure exploits the variation in a large number of official quarterly economic data and our estimates are broadly consistent with contemporary reports. Our series permits a more granular identification of business cycle turning points than was previously possible. The frequency and magnitude of quarterly contractions in the 1950s and 1980s dwarfed those of other decades resulting in lower average growth rates. In contrast, the 1990s are confirmed as a decisive period of higher growth and rapid convergence. |
| Keywords: | Irish quarterly GDP, principal components, Chow-Lin interpolation, factors, economic growth |
| JEL: | E01 N14 O47 O40 P44 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:320436 |
| By: | Victoria Biagi; Alexander Cardazzi; Zachary Porreca |
| Abstract: | Violence is often viewed as an intrinsic feature of illicit markets, driven by competition, disputes, and predation. We argue that the connection between violence and markets is not exclusive to illicit markets and that in the absence of strong institutions these factors exist ubiquitously. Using an estimator of spatial concentration, we document the empirical relationship between violence and markets in the 14th century. We then employ a large language model to analyze the coroner’s accounts of the era’s homicides, finding that many of these incidents were driven by avoidable escalations of business-related disputes. Employing a novel difference-in-differences estimator for spatial concentration, we proceed to causally identify the impacts of the introduction of London’s first professional police force in the 19th century on this concentration. We find that the police force’s introduction led to a 54% reduction in the degree of concentration of violence around marketplaces. Our findings suggest that it is not the nature of the commodities being sold in illicit markets that drives violence, but is rather the absence of formal institutions of enforcement and dispute resolution |
| Keywords: | marketplace violence, medieval violence; spatial concentration; local large language model |
| JEL: | K42 N93 R12 C21 K40 N90 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp25239 |
| By: | Gruschetsky, Valeria; Piglia, Melina |
| Abstract: | El trabajo aborda la historia de la "Ruta 2", el principal camino turístico argentino que une la ciudad de Buenos Aires con el gran balneario nacional, Mar del Plata. Se enmarca en una perspectiva de historia del transporte y de las movilidades. Desde esa mirada, las infraestructuras son entendidas como activas productoras de territorios, relaciones sociales y cultura, en tanto mediadoras de la vida social, económica, política y cultural. El artículo se concentra en tres momentos clave, con el objetivo de poner en relación infraestructura, tecnología automotriz, territorio, paisajes y experiencias de los turistas-automovilistas: la construcción de la ruta pavimentada a fines de la década de 1930, la masificación del uso de automotores y del turismo y el déficit vial entre los años 1960 y 1980; y, finalmente, la transformación de la ruta en autovía concesionada y provincializada, a finales del siglo XX. |
| Keywords: | Infraestructura del Transporte; Automóviles; Ruta Turística; Obras Públicas; 1938-2000; |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:4353 |
| By: | McLaughlin, Eoin; Moro, Mirko; de Vries, Frans P. |
| Abstract: | The regulatory shift by competition and antitrust authorities, allowing limited industry collusion in sustainability-related investments to align markets with broader environmental and social objectives, suggests a re-evaluation of competition as a mechanism for promoting collective welfare. Drawing on Adam Smith's classical works as presented in The Wealth of Nations and The Theory of Moral Sentiments, this paper explores this issue through a historical lens while at the same time showing how this innately connects to the established literature on sustainable development, in particular justice and inclusive wealth. Combined, we discuss the role of modern competition policy in adjudicating and evaluating trade-offs in societies' overall welfare function that comprises negative externalities and natural capital. |
| Keywords: | Wealth of Nations, Justice, Investment collusion, Antitrust, Sustainable development |
| JEL: | B21 D63 K21 L41 Q01 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hwuaef:320415 |
| By: | Leland D. Crane; Akhil Karra; Paul E. Soto |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the ability of large language models (LLMs) to estimate historical macroeconomic variables and data release dates. We find that LLMs have precise knowledge of some recent statistics, but performance degrades as we go farther back in history. We highlight two particularly important kinds of recall errors: mixing together first print data with subsequent revisions (i.e., smoothing across vintages) and mixing data for past and future reference periods (i.e., smoothing within vintages). We also find that LLMs can often recall individual data release dates accurately, but aggregating across series shows that on any given day the LLM is likely to believe it has data in hand which has not been released. Our results indicate that while LLMs have impressively accurate recall, their errors point to some limitations when used for historical analysis or to mimic real time forecasters. |
| Keywords: | Artificial intelligence; Forecasting; Large language models; Real-time data |
| JEL: | C53 C80 E37 |
| Date: | 2025–06–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2025-44 |
| By: | Yu Sasaki (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | This article explores the diffusion of illegal literature and its impact on the French Revolution. Extant literature focuses on the role of modern communications technologies in understanding authoritarian longevity. I argue that pre-modern print media can be a powerful tool to generate support for political change. I construct a new data set by drawing on a corpus of more than 600 illegal books circulated in the eighteenth century. Using the number of émigrés and death sentences as my proxies for the revolution, I show that the diffusion of illicit literature has a positive and significant impact on nobles and clergymen who fled from France but not those who received death sentences. My analysis provides evidence that foreign publishers play a crucial role in the growth of the clandestine market and suggests that technological progress strengthens contemporary authoritarian survival by controlling the flow of information in society. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2025cf1252 |
| By: | Deckker, Dinesh; Sumanasekara, Subhashini |
| Abstract: | The number 13 is widely regarded as unlucky in many Western societies, yet its symbolic meaning varies significantly across global cultures. This superstition, known as triskaidekaphobia, raises questions about the interplay between myth, cognition, and cultural transmission. This study aimed to investigate the origins, evolution, and cross-cultural symbolism of the number 13, exploring how it has been constructed as a taboo or sacred number across different civilisations and religious systems. Adopting a qualitative narrative inquiry and comparative analysis approach, the study synthesised data from religious texts, mythologies, historical documents, scholarly literature, and architectural practices. Theoretical frameworks from symbolic anthropology, cognitive psychology, and sociology guided the interpretation of the data. Findings reveal that the fear of 13 is not universal but culturally contingent. In Christian and Norse traditions, it is associated with betrayal and cosmic disruption; in Ancient Egyptian, Hindu, and Maya cultures, it symbolises spiritual transformation and cosmic order. The modern institutionalisation of the taboo in Western architecture and media reflects the power of narrative and collective belief over objective reasoning. The number 13 functions as a symbolic threshold—its meaning derived from narrative structure, cultural boundaries, and cognitive heuristics. This study underscores the importance of viewing numeric taboos as culturally produced phenomena rather than inherent superstitions. |
| Date: | 2025–06–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:s3drq_v1 |
| By: | Keitaro Nagai (Hakuoh University) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the transition from coal-to petroleum-based production in Japan’s chemical industry during the high-growth era by focusing on the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) raw material conversion policies. Through case studies, this study reexamines the prevailing view of MITI’s role in Japan’s economic development, highlighting a collaborative policymaking process between the government and industry. The analysis elucidates how acetaldehyde production shifted swiftly to petrochemical methods during the Second Petrochemical Phase Plan (1960–1964) as MITI’s policies incorporated earlier proposals from industry. For ammonia, the transition happened through the First and Second Large-Scale Expansion Plans launched in 1965 and 1967, respectively. These policies were formally established by the MITI, but they were implemented in response to requests from industry stakeholders. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Policy, MITI (Ministry of International Trade and Industry), HighGrowth Era, Chemical Industry, Energy Transition |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2516 |
| By: | Engelbert Stockhammer |
| Abstract: | Comparative Political Economy (CPE) is a field in the social sciences that explores the interaction of economic dynamics and political institutions in a comparative cross-country fashion. Recently, the growth models approach (GMA), which builds on post-Keynesian economics (PKE), has challenged the more supply-side oriented varieties of capitalism approach. This paper gives an overview of the debate around GMA, with a focus on macroeconomic issues. It first, discusses the fragmentation of the 19th century political economy approach into heterodox economics and the subsequent formation of CPE and International Political Economy in the social sciences. Second, it clarifies the relations between VoC, GMA and PKE. Third, it reviews debates on identifying growth models empirically; the interpretations of finance-led growth; and the application of GMA to emerging economies, which requires extending and possible reconsidering the analytical framework of GMA. It concludes by discussing similarities and differences between the growth models approach and the French Regulation Theory and Social Structures of Accumulation. It argues that GMA’s analytical framework has been shaped by the experience of the pre-GFC boom and current debates are about building a more general analytical framework. |
| Keywords: | Post-Keynesian Economics, Comparative Political Economy, growth models, economic growth |
| JEL: | B20 B50 E12 O43 P51 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2515 |
| By: | Patrick Bayer (Duke University); Kerwin Kofi Charles (Yale University); Ellora Derenoncourt (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | In this chapter, we introduce a new framework for studying the evolution of racial inequality in the labor market. The framework encompasses two broad forces – distributional and positional – that affect labor market gaps by racial and ethnic identity over time. We provide long-run results on the evolution of Black-White earnings gaps, including new results for Black and White women, and we review the evidence on historical factors affecting racial gaps. We then provide new results on racial gaps among other groups in the U.S. and discuss the evidence on racial gaps outside the U.S. We then discuss the role of prejudice-based discrimination in driving racial gaps, particularly in the post-civil-rights era, a period when such discrimination has been thought to play a declining role in racial inequality. We describe forces that can amplify existing discrimination, such as monopsony and workers’ perceptions of prejudice in the economy, and we discuss recent literature directly measuring discrimination through expanded audit studies and quasi-experimental variation. We conclude with a discussion of existing and new frontiers on race in the labor market, including stratification, reformulations of prejudice, and understanding the way race has shaped purportedly race-neutral institutions throughout the economy. |
| Keywords: | Race, labor markets, inequality |
| JEL: | J15 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:343 |
| By: | Eva Davoine (UC Berkeley); Joseph Enguehard (ENS de Lyon & University of Bologna); Igor Kolesnikov (UC Berkeley) |
| Abstract: | We examine the political costs of taxation in early modern France. We focus on efforts to enforce the salt tax, the rate of which varied across regions. Using a spatial difference-in-discontinuities design, we compare municipalities just inside the high-tax region with those just outside, before and after a reform aimed at curbing illicit salt smuggling. We find that tax enforcement led to a twenty-fold increase in conflicts between taxpayers and the state in municipalities in the high-tax region. This effect persists until the French Revolution, supporting the view that enforcing the salt tax incurred significant political costs. Finally, we document that the likelihood of conflict increases with tax differences between neighboring regions, which we use to derive an upper bound on the political costs of increased tax enforcement in this historical period. |
| Keywords: | Taxation, Protest, Conflict |
| JEL: | D74 H26 H39 K42 N43 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbp:wpaper:027 |
| By: | Bill Martin |
| Abstract: | Eleven years ago, the Office for National Statistics, Britain's main statistics agency, attempted to merge 2 sets of time series data in order to backcast a long history of the country's capital investment. The restored investment figures became the series for total investment in the official 'historic' national accounts between 1948 and 1996. The ONS chose to merge old investment data with new national accounts data using splicing, a common technique, and did so 'bottom up': by adding up detailed backcast figures to derive the total. This paper, a sequel to one published in September 2024, argues that the ONS methodology was a mistake. Extraordinary differences between some of the old and new data series should have alerted the ONS to the deficiency of its approach. And the agency failed comprehensively to sense check its results. The implausible rewrite of Britain’s economic past that resulted is still embedded in the national accounts, but might be corrected as a result of a new ONS investigation begun in response to the earlier paper. Official correction is not assured, however. As matters stand, those wishing to draw lessons from Britain’s economic past are still advised not to rely on the 'historic' national accounts. |
| Keywords: | National accounts, capital investment, UK post-war economic history, backcasting, splicing |
| JEL: | C82 E01 N1 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbr:cbrwps:wp543 |
| By: | Zachary Bleemer; Sarah Quincy |
| Abstract: | Going to college has consistently conferred a large wage premium. We show that the relative premium received by lower-income Americans has halved since 1960. We decompose this steady rise in ‘collegiate regressivity’ using dozens of survey and administrative datasets documenting 1900–2020 wage premiums and the composition and value-added of collegiate institutions and majors. Three factors explain 80 percent of collegiate regressivity’s growth. First, the teaching-oriented public universities where lower-income students are concentrated have relatively declined in funding, retention, and economic value since 1960. Second, lower-income students have been disproportionately diverted into community and for-profit colleges since 1980 and 1990, respectively. Third, higher-income students’ falling humanities enrollment and rising computer science enrollment since 2000 have increased their degrees’ value. Selection into college-going and across four-year universities are second-order. College-going provided equitable returns before 1960, but collegiate regressivity now curtails higher education’s potential to reduce inequality and mediates 25 percent of intergenerational income transmission. |
| JEL: | I23 I26 J62 N32 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33797 |
| By: | Angel De la Fuente; Pep Ruiz |
| Abstract: | En este Documento de Trabajo se describe brevemente la última actualización del módulo sectorial de la base de datos RegData FEDEA-BBVA, 1955-2023. This Working Paper briefly describes the latest update made to the sectoral module of the RegData FEDEA-BBVA database, 1955-2023. |
| Keywords: | Remuneration, Remuneración, Sectors, Sectores, Employed, Ocupados, labor market, mercado laboral, Spain, España, Macroeconomic Analysis, Análisis Macroeconómico, Regional Analysis Spain, Análisis Regional España, Employment, Empleo, Working Paper, Documento de Trabajo |
| JEL: | E01 R1 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bbv:wpaper:2507 |
| By: | Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé; Martín Uribe |
| Abstract: | We estimate transitory and permanent import tariff shocks in the United States over the postwar period. We find that transitory tariff increases are neither inflationary nor contractionary, and are not associated with monetary tightening. In contrast, permanent tariff increases trigger a temporary rise in inflation (a one-off increase in the price level) and a brief tightening of monetary policy. Consistent with the intertemporal approach to the balance of payments, transitory tariff increases reduce imports and improve the trade balance, whereas permanent increases leave both largely unchanged. Transitory shocks account for approximately 80 percent of tariff movements. Overall, tariff shocks are estimated to be a minor driver of U.S. business cycle fluctuations on average and even during episodes of substantial tariff hikes, such as Nixon 1971, Ford 1975, and Trump 2018. |
| JEL: | E31 E52 F13 F41 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33997 |
| By: | Nobutaka Suzuki |
| Abstract: | Abstract |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hst:ghsdps:gd23-305 |
| By: | Wulong Gu and Michael Willox |
| Abstract: | Canada and the United States share a deep economic relationship marked by intricate supply chains and infrastructure networks. While the performances of the two economies have diverged for brief periods, indicators, such as real gross domestic product and employment, typically show a tight common trend over the long term. The period from 1961 to 2001 in Chart 1 underscores the interconnectedness of both economies. |
| Keywords: | temporary foreign workers, study permit holders, transition to permanent residency, industrial retention, accommodation and food services |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2023–12–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:2023012e |
| By: | Yu Sasaki (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of postal service in city growth in pre-industrial France. Extant research shows that modern-day state-funded infrastructure projects, such as railways, predict growth. I examine the consequences of the post when the pace of expansion was slow and technological innovations were few. I highlight how the French post evolved from the crown- only information tool to a public service and how investments on the physical infrastructure lagged behind. Digitizing untapped published sources, I construct market access via postal routes on the city level from 1500–1850. My analysis finds that it is strongly negatively as- sociated with growth. It also highlights how the proximity to rivers matters to growth, while more geographically-bounded interactions are not impactful. My instrumental-variable esti- mation points to how post-Roman political consolidation in Gaul misaligned the subsequent urban networks from contemporary perspectives, leaving an ill-conceived design on which the French post was built. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2025cf1253 |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | The objective of this article is to present some of the current thinking and arguments about central bank digital currency (CBDC) from the perspective of those who have vested interests in central bank digital currency (CBDC) and from those who are opposed to CBDC. The article gives the reader an opportunity to reflect deeply about CBDC and to make their own opinion about CBDC based on the informed insights of others. From the collection of quotes, it was found that the concept of a central bank digital currency has come to stay, and many central banks want to issue a CBDC in the distant future. It was also found that, despite the efforts of central banks and pro-CBDC enthusiasts to publicise the benefits of a CBDC for citizens, many people continue to raise daunting questions about the potential for government overreach and surveillance, loss of competitive advantages for deposit-taking financial institutions, loss of privacy for citizens, and concerns that CBDC development is an unwholesome distraction for central banks, among other concerns. There is also a perceived negative sentiment about CBDC, and this sentiment is unlikely to change anytime soon. |
| Keywords: | central bank, CBDC, central bank digital currency, wholesale CBDC, retail CBDC, financial stability, financial crisis, financial inclusion, payments. |
| JEL: | E52 E58 E59 O31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124263 |