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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Jagjit Chadha; Ana Rincon-Aznar; Sylaja Srinivasan; Ryland Thomas |
| Abstract: | The main problems with reconstructing a consistent historical dataset after the First World War are problems of modernity. Frequent changes to the system of national accounts that reflect the changing nature of the economy cause breaks and discontinuities that are difficult and costly to apply retrospectively. This paper explores to what extent it is possible to create a consistent, usable and comprehensive high frequency macroeconomic dataset back to the 1920s and earlier. This paper provides an inventory of the available macroeconomic statistics in the UK for the last hundred years or so. The focus is on documenting the higher frequency (daily, monthly and quarterly) macroeconomic data that are available after the First World War, rather than longer run annual time series which has been the focus of other collections. It discusses some of the challenges that need to be overcome in order to create a continuous historical dataset over this period. The inventory follows the structure of the Economic Trends Annual Supplement (ETAS) that was produced for many years by the Office for National Statistics. It covers statistics on National Accounts, prices, labour market indicators, selected demand and output indicators and financial market data (including money and credit aggregates). |
| Keywords: | Economic history; macroeconomics; UK economy; national accounts |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:niesro:64 |
| By: | Lukas Starchl (University of Graz, Austria) |
| Abstract: | Ludwig Mises' interest in large-scale problems concerning the institutional framework and social as well as economic requirements for a well-functioning economy, makes Mises' writings on supranational governance particularly interesting. Based on a reading of his German language publications and archival material, this paper analyzes the development of Ludwig Mises' ideas of supranational governance in his time in Vienna and locates them in the broader historical and intellectual context. The paper focuses on two particularly important elements of that project. First, his steadily vanishing trust in a narrowly defined popular enlightenment, to be understood as his trust in the peoples' capacity to grasp the perceived infallibility of liberal economics and consequently the harmony of interest across all individuals. The second element, inextricably linked to the first one, is his perspective on democracy and its role in the political framework of a global capitalist order. |
| Keywords: | Ludwig Mises, Supranational Governance, Democracy and Economics, Global Capitalism, Nationalism and Economics |
| JEL: | B13 B25 B53 P16 F15 F55 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grz:wpaper:2025-07 |
| By: | Thomas Delcey (LEDi - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dijon [Dijon] - UBE - Université Bourgogne Europe) |
| Abstract: | Where does financial economics come from? This article studies the origins of foundational ideas of financial economics such as price spreads, arbitrage, and the interpretation of price as a reflection of information. Based on his publications and archival and interview materials, this article traces Holbrook Working's intellectual journey between the 1920s and 1960s. Working was a leading North American agricultural economist who conducted pioneering analyses of futures markets and speculation and strongly influenced early financial economists like Paul Samuelson, Paul Cootner, Hendrick Houthakker, and Lester G. Telser. Working sheds light on a North American view of speculation that contrasted with the prevailing British view. |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05056404 |
| By: | Andrea Matranga; Timur Natkhov |
| Abstract: | This article examines the emergence of extractive institutions using the case of serfdom in early modern Russia. We argue that serfdom consolidated under the pressure of landhold ing military elites who gained political influence due to the prolonged struggle with steppe nomads. To contain nomadic raids, the Russian state erected defense lines on the southern frontier, and granted lands in the area to soldiers in charge of its defense. The soldiers could not farm while on defense duty, nor could they compete in the market for peasant labor, as the land had been selected for its defensive rather than agricultural value. The system was therefore only sustainable by restricting labor mobility. In response to the volume of landholders’ collective petitions, the Russian state gradually tied peasants to the land and institutionalized serfdom in the written law. Using newly digitized population data from the 17th century, we show a higher prevalence of serfs and military landholders in districts on the defense line. We also find a higher prevalence of small estates – up to 25 serf households sufficient to support a soldier and his family. Placebo tests show that these patterns do not hold for non-serf peasants, or for merchants and artisans. To ensure causality, we develop a novel algorithm that reconstructs the optimal invasion routes for nomads and pinpoints the optimal location of the defense line using topographic data. Our results highlight the primacy of political economy factors over purely economic ones, such as the land-labor ratio or the grain trade, in the development of serfdom. This sheds new light on the possible mechanisms of institutional divergence between Eastern and Western Europe in the early modern period. |
| Keywords: | serfdom, extractive institutions, factor markets, early modern Russia |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:735 |
| By: | Becker, Bastian; Waitkus, Nora |
| Abstract: | Inherited wealth has often been accumulated under circumstances seen as undeserving by present-day standards. However, there is surprisingly little knowledge about the political consequences of wealth's history. We argue that illegitimate accumulation nurtures opposition and calls for redistribution, even after multiple generations. To test our theory, we conduct a survey in Germany, where many wealthy business owners inherited companies that made large fortunes during one of the darkest episodes of human history, the Nazi regime of 1933-1945. We demonstrate with a vignette experiment that individuals perceive heirs of businesses that cooperated with the Nazi regime as less deserving than other similar heirs, and are more likely to support the targeted redistribution of such inherited business wealth. Therefore, undeservingness can be inherited and passed on from one generation to another. These results align with general views and attitudes about the German economy. Our findings add to studies on the historical origins of public opinion as well as deservingness by showing how illegitimate wealth accumulation affects political attitudes across generations. |
| Keywords: | wealth; deservingness; redistribution; entrepreneurs; history; injustice |
| JEL: | D63 H20 N34 |
| Date: | 2025–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128206 |
| By: | Philipp Koch; Viktor Stojkoski; C\'esar A. Hidalgo |
| Abstract: | Can we use data on the biographies of historical figures to estimate the GDP per capita of countries and regions? Here we introduce a machine learning method to estimate the GDP per capita of dozens of countries and hundreds of regions in Europe and North America for the past 700 years starting from data on the places of birth, death, and occupations of hundreds of thousands of historical figures. We build an elastic net regression model to perform feature selection and generate out-of-sample estimates that explain 90% of the variance in known historical income levels. We use this model to generate GDP per capita estimates for countries, regions, and time periods for which this data is not available and externally validate our estimates by comparing them with four proxies of economic output: urbanization rates in the past 500 years, body height in the 18th century, wellbeing in 1850, and church building activity in the 14th and 15th century. Additionally, we show our estimates reproduce the well-known reversal of fortune between southwestern and northwestern Europe between 1300 and 1800 and find this is largely driven by countries and regions engaged in Atlantic trade. These findings validate the use of fine-grained biographical data as a method to produce historical GDP per capita estimates. We publish our estimates with confidence intervals together with all collected source data in a comprehensive dataset. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.09399 |
| By: | Kok, Joris |
| Abstract: | Representative data on historical minority populations are often absent or costly to collect, while previously used sampling methods have led to small or biased samples. This paper presents a method to systematically identify Jews by leveraging the distinctiveness of Jewish and Gentile names in Dutch population data. Using two external sources for verification, I evaluate efficiency and accuracy of Jewish samples identified through different combinations of given names and surnames. The results show that incorporating additional family names, such as those of parents, substantially increases sample sizes while simultaneously minimizing errors. Using name distributions by ethno-religious background from mid-nineteenth-century Amsterdam population registers, between 81 and 86 percent of Amsterdam-born grooms and brides are accurately identified as either Jewish or Gentile on Dutch civil certificates between 1811 and 1932. I further demonstrate that the method is effective across time and across the Dutch provinces, producing Jewish samples that closely match their local population shares. Finally, I illustrate the potential of the approach by documenting the socioeconomic ascent of Amsterdam Jews from the second half of the nineteenth century onward, and discuss ways to extend the method through data linking and the incorporation of additional information. |
| Date: | 2025–05–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:c2aer_v1 |
| By: | Gilles Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | The 1980s marked a turning point in the pop music industry, with increasing tensions between artistic experimentation and corporate control. Amid this shift, synth-pop emerged as a space where aesthetic evolution often clashed with commercial imperatives. From this point of view, the trajectory of the German band Propaganda (1983-1990) offers a compelling lens through which to explore the tensions between artistic ambition and managerial constraint within the 1980s music industry. Signed by the British label ZTT Records, the band operated under an innovative yet tightly controlled regime of technological production and promotional strategy. While this centralized and hierarchical framework fostered a distinctive sonic identity, it simultaneously curtailed the band's creative autonomy and strained internal cohesion. Unequal distribution of roles and resources contributed to organizational fragmentation, exposing a core paradox: a project framed as a collective endeavor, yet driven by top-down perspective of control. This article analyzes Propaganda's evolution to illuminate the ambivalent consequences of the industrialization of pop music-where formal professionalization and curated aesthetic experimentation often come at the expense of collaborative artistic agency. |
| Keywords: | Aesthetics, Commercial strategy, Creativity, Label politics, Music industry, Propaganda, Synth-pop, ZTT Records |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05094648 |
| By: | Fabio C. Bagliano; Claudio Morana |
| Abstract: | The paper yields a structural account of economic integration in the Eurozone from its inception to post-pandemic developments by considering a broad range of convergence measures. We introduce a novel FAVAR framework, extracting the structural shocks driving the Eurozone business and financial cycles directly from the cyclical components they generate. Productivity advancements have been the critical trend convergence factor, shaping long swings in real, labor market, and financial dispersion. Subdued cost-push shocks were the key driver of Eurozone nominal and competitiveness convergence throughout 2015 but have become an all-rounded divergence force since then. Fiscal discipline imposed by the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) increased real and financial divergence during all recessionary episodes, while the ECB expansionary monetary policy was a convergence factor. The SGP suspension during the recent pandemic recession and recovery has partially counteracted divergence pressures. Looking forward, convergence will crucially depend on how productivity dynamics and economic growth will fend off further unfavorable cost-push developments, which might become pervasive in a deglobalization-driven new macroeconomic regime. |
| Keywords: | real, nominal and financial convergence and divergence; Eurozone; economic integration; recessions; financial crises; subprime financial crisis; sovereign debt crisis; pandemic recession; FAVAR models. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:729 |
| By: | Forbes, Kristin; Jongrim Ha; Ayhan Kose |
| Abstract: | Central banks often face tradeoffs in how their monetary policy decisions impact economic activity (including employment), inflation and the price level. This paper assesses how these tradeoffs have evolved over time and varied across countries, with a focus on understanding the post-pandemic adjustment. To make these comparisons, we compile a cross-country, historical database of “rate cycles” (i.e., easing and tightening phases for monetary policy) for 24 advanced economies from 1970 through 2024. This allows us to quantify the characteristics of interest rate adjustments and corresponding macroeconomic outcomes and tradeoffs. We also calculate Sacrifice Ratios (output losses per inflation reduction) and document a historically low “sacrifice” during the post-pandemic tightening. This popular measure, however, ignores adjustments in the price level—which increased by more after the pandemic than over the past four decades. A series of regressions and simulations suggest monetary policy (and particularly the timing and aggressiveness of rate hikes) play a meaningful role in explaining these tradeoffs and how adjustments occur during tightening phases. Central bank credibility is the one measure we assess that corresponds to only positive outcomes and no difficult tradeoffs. |
| Date: | 2025–05–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11130 |
| By: | Apostolidis, Paul |
| Keywords: | critical theory; capitalism; work; employment; labour; Amazon |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128205 |
| By: | Sergio Correia; Stephan Luck; Emil Verner |
| Abstract: | Why do banks fail? We create a panel covering most commercial banks from 1863 through 2024 to study the history of failing banks in the United States. Failing banks are characterized by rising asset losses, deteriorating solvency, and an increasing reliance on expensive noncore funding. These commonalities imply that bank failures are highly predictable using simple accounting metrics from publicly available financial statements. Failures with runs were common before deposit insurance, but these failures are strongly related to weak fundamentals, casting doubt on the importance of non-fundamental runs. Furthermore, low recovery rates on failed banks' assets suggest that most failed banks were fundamentally insolvent, barring strong assumptions about the value destruction of receiverships. Altogether, our evidence suggests that the primary cause of bank failures and banking crises is almost always and everywhere a deterioration of bank fundamentals. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.06082 |
| By: | Saka, O.; Ji, Y.; Minaudier, C. |
| Abstract: | We show that politicians facing a binding term limit are more likely to engage in financial de-liberalisation than those facing re-election, but only in the wake of a financial crisis. In particular, they implement policies that tend to favour incumbent financial institutions over the general population, such as increasing barriers to entry in the banking sector. We rationalise this behaviour with a theory of political accountability in which crises generate two opposite effects: they increase the salience of financial policies to voters but also create a window of opportunity for politicians captured by the financial industry to push potentially harmful reforms. In line with the implications of our model, we show that revolving doors between the government and the financial sector play a key role in encouraging bank-friendly policies after crises. |
| Keywords: | Financial crises; political accountability; democracies; term-limits; special-interest groups. |
| Date: | 2024–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cty:dpaper:24/01 |
| By: | Vasiliki Fouka; Marco Tabellini |
| Abstract: | This chapter reviews the literature on the relationship between culture and political preferences. We distinguish conceptually between the direct cultural transmission of political ideology and the transmission of more primitive preferences and beliefs that influence preferences over policies, parties, and forms of government. While there is substantial evidence that political preferences persist across generations and within communities, the literature often does not specify which primitive values and beliefs drive this persistence. A growing body of work points to a multifaceted mapping from underlying preferences and beliefs over the material world and social relations to political ideology. In this chapter, we summarize these studies, organize their findings in a coherent framework, and suggest possible directions for future research. |
| JEL: | D72 N30 P0 Z1 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33786 |
| By: | Pierre Donat-Bouillud (Czech Technical University in Prague, Northeasterm University); Coralie Hirschi (Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CNRS, IRD, Centre d'Econonomie de la Sorbonne); Etienne Le Rossignol (Université de Namur) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the educational legacies of Christian missions established before independence, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, focusing on contemporary disparities in educational content, quality, access, and outcomes. Using georeferenced data from over 20, 000 schools and two million students participating in the Examen National d'Etat (Exetat) between 2016 and 2019, as well as primary data from a phone survey of 624 school directors, we explore how proximity to Catholic and Protestant missions during the colonial period influences educational opportunities today. We find that schools near historical Christian missions offer a broader and higher-quality curriculum, with increased access to study tracks outside the basic Pedagogy section. Students attending these schools are more likely to pass the Exetat and achieve grades qualifying for university admission, although the magnitude of the effect is modest. Supply-side factors, such as better infrastructure and more conducive school environments, explain half of the missionary proximity premium, while demand-side mechanisms, including students' sorting and selection account for additional variation. Our findings reveal that the strong partnership between missions and the colonial state entrenched spatial inequalities in educational access and quality, inequalities that persist to this day |
| Keywords: | Christian Missions; Education; Democratic Republic of the Congo |
| JEL: | Z1 Z10 N9 O1 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:25013 |
| By: | Daniel Souza; Aldo Geuna; Jeff Rodríguez |
| Abstract: | We investigate the emergence of Deep Learning as a technoscientific field, emphasizing the role of open labeled datasets. Through qualitative and quantitative analyses, we evaluate the role of datasets like CIFAR-10 in advancing computer vision and object recognition, which are central to the Deep Learning revolution. Our findings highlight CIFAR-10’s crucial role and enduring influence on the field, as well as its importance in teaching ML techniques. Results also indicate that dataset characteristics such as size, number of instances, and number of categories, were key factors. Econometric analysis confirms that CIFAR-10, a small-but- sufficiently-large open dataset, played a significant and lasting role in technological advancements and had a major function in the development of the early scientific literature as shown by citation metrics. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence; Deep Learning; Emergence of technosciences; Open science; Open Labeled Datasets |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:738 |
| By: | Oscar Claveria (AQR-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain.); Petar Soric (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Croatia.) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between economic uncertainty and the redistributive effect of taxes and government transfers in the UK and the US over the period 1980-2021. We find that the sign of the relationship between uncertainty and redistribution goes from being negative at the beginning of the 1980s to taking a positive and significant sign in recent years. In the US, economic uncertainty Granger-causes the redistributive effect of taxes and transfers in the short run, but the same does not hold for the UK. |
| Keywords: | economic uncertainty; redistributive policy; income inequality; taxes; government transfers. JEL classification: C50, D30, E62, H50. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202415 |
| By: | Sylvain Zeghni (LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Gustave Eiffel) |
| Abstract: | Note de lecture sur l'ouvrage de Nat DYER, Ricardo's Dream : How Economists Forgot the Real World and Led Us Astray, Bristol University Press, 2024, 344 pages |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05072949 |
| By: | Marc-Antoine Faure; César Ducruet |
| Abstract: | Once developed by geographers, shipping network research has long remained a peripheral subfield of academia. Increased shipping data availability and computational power, combined with renewed graph-theoretical methods, caused an unprecedented growth of shipping network studies since the late 2000s. This article provides an in-depth bibliometric analysis of no less than 329 peer-reviewed papers published between 2007 and 2025. First, it describes the gathered corpus from diverse angles, such as the growth of papers, the main journals, its disciplinary background, and the pattern of co-authorships. Second, we use a natural language processing (NLP) approach, namely the structural topic model, to undertake an in-depth analysis based on the contents of abstracts. We identify four main topics, of which trade and connectivity; hubs and centrality; vulnerability and robustness; and communities and spatial structure, which are discussed according to their innovative character compared with wider research on ports, maritime transport, and network science. Three additional subgroups received peripheral attention despite their core importance: environmental issues (of which, marine bioinvasions), socio-economic development, and the role of shipping alliances. We conclude that network science methods still have important potential in shipping network port and maritime studies, and propose several pathways for further research. |
| Keywords: | bibliometric analysis; complex networks; graph theory; maritime transport; scientometrics; shipping network; social network analysis; structural topic modeling |
| JEL: | R41 F10 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2025-27 |
| By: | Daniel Levy (Department of Economics, Bar-Ilan University, Israel; Department of Economics, Emory University, USA; ICEA; ISET, TSU; Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis); Haipeng (Allan) Chen (Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, USA); Sourav Ray (G.S. Lang School of Business and Economics, University of Guelph, Canada); Elliot Charette (Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, USA; Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Minneapolis, USA); Xiao Ling (School of Business, Central Connecticut State University, USA); Weihong Zhao (Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, USA); Mark Bergen (Carlson School of Management, University of Minnesota, USA); Avichai Snir (Department of Economics, Bar-Ilan University, Israel) |
| Abstract: | Studies of micro-level price datasets find more frequent small price increases than decreases, which can be explained by consumer inattention because time-constrained shoppers might ignore small price changes. Recent empirical studies of the link between shopping behavior and price attention over the business cycle find that consumers are more (less) attentive to prices during economic downturns (booms). These two sets of findings have a testable implication: the asymmetry in small price changes should vary over the business cycle—it should diminish during recessions and strengthen during expansions. We test this prediction using a large US store-level dataset with more than 98 million weekly price observations for the years 1989–1997, which includes an 8-month recession period, as defined by the NBER. We compare price adjustments between periods of recession (high unemployment) and expansion (low unemployment). Focusing on small price changes, we find, consistent with our hypothesis, that there is a greater asymmetry in small price changes during periods of low unemployment compared to the periods of high unemployment, implying that firms’ price-setting behavior varies over the business cycle. |
| Keywords: | Asymmetric Price Adjustment, Small Price Changes, Consumer Inattention, Price Rigidity, Sticky Prices, Business Cycles, Unemployment, Recessions, Expansions |
| JEL: | E31 E32 D11 D21 D80 D91 L11 L16 M31 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rim:rimwps:25-05 |
| By: | Dario Caldara; Matteo Iacoviello; David Yu |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a monthly shortage index spanning 1900 to the present, constructed from 25 million newspaper articles. The index captures shortages across industry, labor, food, and energy, and spikes during economic crises and wars. We validate the index and show that it provides information beyond traditional macroeconomic indicators. Using predictive regressions, we find that shortages are associated with persistently high inflation and lower economic activity. A structural VAR model reveals that, compared to a traditional supply shock, surprise movements in shortages produce less inflation relative to their GDP impact, suggesting that shortages are associated with constraints on price adjustment that limit inflation but magnify the decline in real activity. We also show that post-pandemic shortages and inflation were primarily driven by supply forces, with demand factors playing a less important role. |
| Keywords: | Shortages; Inflation; Textual analysis; Predictive regressions; Structural VAR model |
| JEL: | C32 C55 E31 N10 |
| Date: | 2025–05–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1407 |
| By: | Mathieu Couttenier; Sophie Hatte; Lucile Laugerette; Tommaso Sonno |
| Abstract: | Public speeches by leaders can serve as a cost-effective tool for fostering peace, yet their effectiveness remains uncertain, particularly in divided societies experiencing violent conflict. This paper examines the impact of the Catholic Pope's peace-promoting speeches on conflict dynamics in Africa. To investigate this, we construct a novel dataset covering all papal speeches explicitly addressing violent conflict events in Africa between 1997 and 2022. Using event-study methods, we find that papal speeches reduce overall conflict by 23% on average. However, these effects vary significantly depending on the Pope delivering the speech. While Pope John Paul II and Pope Francis's speeches are associated with substantial reductions in conflict, Pope Benedict XVI's speeches show no significant overall effect but are linked to increased battles and religious violence. We further explore four mechanisms driving these heterogeneous effects. First, the impact of papal speeches is significantly stronger in areas with a Catholic presence, where violence drops by up to 69%. Second, the effectiveness of a speech depends on the bishops' ideological alignment with the Pope's vision, with speeches delivered by a Pope who appointed the current bishop being 17% more effective. Third, political leaders play a crucial role in amplifying the Pope's message, as violence significantly declines in birth regions of national leaders. Finally, the response of armed groups varies depending on their religious affiliation and prior history of violence. |
| Keywords: | conflict, violence, religion, leaders, peacebuilding |
| Date: | 2025–04–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2094 |
| By: | Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana; Nieves Carmona-González |
| Abstract: | This paper uses fractional integration methods to obtain comprehensive evidence on the evolution of the number of hot days, defined as those with temperatures above 35 °C, in 54 countries from various regions of the world over the period from 1950 to 2022. The variable analysed is a key indicator of global warming, and the chosen modelling approach is most informative about the behaviour of the series as it provides evidence on the possible presence of time trends, on whether or not mean reversion occurs, and on the degree of persistence. In brief, the findings indicate the presence of considerable heterogeneity among the countries studied and highlight the importance of tailored climate policies based on both global and local factors. |
| Keywords: | number of hot days, climate change, persistence, fractional integration |
| JEL: | C22 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11925 |
| By: | Jerg Gutmann; Pascal Langer; Matthias Neuenkirch |
| Abstract: | It is well-established that political leaders matter for domestic outcomes, but statistical evidence for their relevance in international politics is still scarce. Here, we ask whether the personal relationship between political leaders can change the propensity for nonviolent conflict between nation-states in the form of sanctions. Panel probit models with data for the period 1970 to 2004 are estimated to evaluate whether more similar leaders are less likely to sanction each other. Our results indicate that higher leader similarity significantly reduces the likelihood of sanction imposition. The effect is most pronounced for sanctions imposed through unilateral political decisions. The probability of such sanction imposition ranges from 4.9% at the highest observed leader similarity in the sample to 13.0% at the lowest. Leader similarity seems to matter especially for sanctions aimed at democratic change or human rights improvements, for non-trade sanctions, and when at least one autocracy is involved. Finally, leader similarity has become more important after the Cold War. |
| Keywords: | geoeconomics, international sanctions, leader similarity, political leaders |
| JEL: | D70 F51 K33 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11921 |
| By: | Panagiotis Asimakopoulos |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to document tax legislation and create a dataset, consisting of 120 laws that brought significant changes in the vast majority of categories of taxes in Greece from 1974 to 2018. We create an exhaustive Tax Law Database consisting of Laws that brought significant changes in the tax system and more importantly covered the vast majority of categories of taxes in Greece from 1974-2018. Our dataset, tax revenue figures, national accounts covered the period up to 2018 excluding Greece exit process from enhance fiscal surveillance, government change after election of 2019 and Covid-19 implications. |
| Keywords: | Taxation policy, structural reforms, fiscal policy. |
| JEL: | E62 E63 |
| Date: | 2025–04–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2025_04 |