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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | William J. Collins; Nicholas C. Holtkamp |
| Abstract: | We shed new light on historical black-white disparities in wealth and economic mobility by examining datasets of linked census records. First, we compare black and white men’s intra- and inter-generational mobility into property ownership between 1870, the first census taken after the Civil War, and 1900. Conditional on not owning property in 1870, black men’s mobility rate into property ownership was far lower than white men’s. If black men’s post-1870 mobility had mirrored that of landless white men, the black-white home ownership gap in 1900 would have been small. Second, we show that for black men located in cotton-intensive counties in 1870, the likelihood of owning property in 1900 was far lower than for black men located elsewhere. This is apparent in national samples as well as in samples restricted to the states of the former Confederacy, with and without extensive controls. This pattern is connected to the prevalence of sharecropping and relatively high black population shares. For white men, the difference in upward mobility between cotton-intensive and other areas was much smaller or non-existent. Many black households did acquire land and homes of their own in this era, an important channel for economic advance, but racism and discrimination slowed their mobility into property ownership. |
| JEL: | I3 J70 N31 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33860 |
| By: | David Jacks (National University of Singapore); Kevin O’Rourke (Sciences Po); Alan Taylor (Columbia University); Yoto Yotov (School of Economics, Drexel University) |
| Abstract: | We introduce a new dataset on British exports at the bilateral, commodity-level from 1700 to 1899. We then pit two primary determinants of bilateral trade against one another: the trade-diminishing effects of distance versus the trade-enhancing effects of the British Empire. We find that the impact of gravity fell by a factor of roughly three between the 1780s and 1850s. The impact of empire on British exports was extremely large throughout, but the impact of 18th century mercantilism was much higher than that of empire in the liberal late 19th century. |
| Keywords: | Long run historical data, distance, empire, gravity, international trade |
| JEL: | F10 N70 N74 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202525 |
| By: | Tymoigne, Eric |
| Abstract: | A monetary approach that combines Chartalism, Nominalism, and Command origins of monetary systems is often deemed to have emerged only recently, while the Aristotelian approach (Commodity, Metallism, and Market origins of monetary systems) is the only one that existed until the end of the eighteenth/early-nineteenth century. In the major studies of the history of monetary thought, the Chartalism-Nominalism-Command approach is mostly left unmentioned, or at best reduced to an incoherent banality. The paper shows that this approach has a long and rich intellectual history among uropean monetary thinkers. In Europe, Plato was its first exponent, albeit in a very rudimentary way, and so one may call it the “Platonic approach.” It is developed by Roman legists (such as Javolenus, Paulus, and Ulpian) and Medieval legists (such as Du Moulin, Hotman, and Butigella) who note that coins are similar to securities and that debts are serviced when nominal sums are paid rather than specific coins tendered. During the Renaissance and early modern period, a series of scholars and financial practitioners (such as Law, Dutot, Thomas Smith, and James Taylor) emphasize the financial logic behind monetary mechanics and the similarity of coins and notes. In the twentieth century, authors such as Innes, Knapp, Keynes, and Commons build onto the groundwork provided by these past scholars. In China, the Chartalism-Nominalism-Command approach develops independently and dominates from the beginning under Confucian and Legist thoughts. They emphasize the statecraft origins of monetary systems, the role of tax redemption, and the irrelevance of the material used to make monetary instruments. Clay, lead, paper, iron, copper, and tin are normal and convenient means to make monetary instruments, they are not special/emergency materials. The essence of a monetary instrument is not defined by its materiality but rather by its chartality, that is, by the promise it embeds. The Platonic approach rejects the categories and conceptualizations used by the Aristotelian approach and develops new ones, which leads to a different set of inquiries and understanding of monetary phenomena, problems, and history. |
| Keywords: | History of monetary thoughts, monetary theory, Chartalism, Nominalism, asset pricing, redemption |
| JEL: | B10 B11 B20 B26 E42 E62 G12 H30 K12 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124797 |
| By: | Karsten Heinz Schönbach (Free University of Berlin) |
| Abstract: | Ever since the publication of Henry Turner's German Big Business and the Rise of Hitler, most histo-rians in both Germany and the United States have dismissed the idea that support from German major industry played a key role in bringing Hitler to power. This consensus is wrong, as I have shown in a series of works that began with my doctoral dissertation at the Free University of Berlin and now extends to more than ten different works, including two books. These works rely extensively on ar-chival resources that were either inaccessible or only selectively open to earlier researchers. This paper analyzes in detail one of the most crucial episodes in Hitler's rise to power – one that pre-vious historians, particularly Turner, have profoundly misjudged thanks in part at least to the short-comings in the documentary sources available to them. This is the history of the political relations be-tween Hitler, the NSDAP leadership, and the German "coal industrialists" in the period from 1926 to 1933 and the key role these firms played in supporting and financing the eventual Nazi triumph. |
| Keywords: | German Coal Industry; Great Depression, Rise of Nazis, Germany Economic History |
| JEL: | D72 J52 N14 N34 N54 N64 P12 |
| Date: | 2024–10–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp230 |
| By: | Escribano Sáez, Álvaro; Rodríguez Solano, Juan Andres; Arranz Cuesta, Miguel Angel |
| Abstract: | Since the influential works of Friedman and Schwartz (1963, 1982) and Hendry and Ericsson (1991), on the monetary history of the United States of America and the United Kingdom from 1876 to 1975, there has been a great concern in the literature about the instability of money demand functions. This concern together with the results of the New Keynesian models, produced the abandonment of money as an instrument of monetary policy. Recently, using M1 as the measure of money, Benati, Lucas, Nicolini and Weber (2021) have shown, for a shorter and recent period of time, that there is a stable long-run money demand for a long list of countries. However, to date there are no studies showing that alternative stable longrun and short-run money demand equations exist since the XIX century. By means of nonlinear cointegration and nonlinear equilibrium corrections (NEC), we present empirical evidence of stable nonlinear UK money demands models of real broad money balances from 1877 to 2023. The properties of these NEC models are assessed via Monte Carlo simulations. Rational polynomials error-correction models are used to generate a simple nonlinear Granger´s representation theorem together with a two-step estimation procedure, which satisfies well-stablished asymptotic conditions. As a byproduct, with four different but stable money demand specifications, we empirically identify key abrupt historical periods, corresponding to World Wars I and II, regulatory changes and the COVID period, generating a common 6.5% excess inflation effect, over the historical 2.2% constant average inflation rate since 1877. |
| Keywords: | Money demand stability; Nonlinear cointegration; Nonlinear equilibrium correction; Nonlinear error correction; Rational polynomials; Opportunity cost of holding money |
| JEL: | E41 E43 E47 E51 |
| Date: | 2025–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:werepe:47122 |
| By: | Sebastián Katz (Central Bank of Argentina); Eduardo Levy-Yeyati (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella) |
| Abstract: | Based on long series of per capita GDPs, we characterize the economic divergence of Argentina in the 20th century relative to a group of countries with comparable initial income per capita. We find the divergence to be considerably longer than usually conjectured, with two marked tranches in the first half of the century and in the post war period, the latter being associated with GDP underperformance despite the relative decline in population. We identify specific dates for the inflection points, discuss the context in each case, and propose a potential explanation of the divergence together with a description of the highly volatile plateau displayed since the 1990s. |
| Keywords: | divergencia económica; PIB per cápita; desempeño económico; Argentina; crecimiento económico; volatilidad económica; siglo XX |
| JEL: | N10 N16 O40 O54 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcr:wpaper:2024114 |
| By: | Harding, T. Swann |
| Abstract: | Table of Contents: I – In the Beginning --- II – The First Thousand Dollars --- III – The Patent Office Gives Farmers Aid --- IV – Who Is Isaac Newton? --- V – Era of Genteel Futility — the Department, a Bureau, Under Commissioners --- VI – Improved Organization and Slow Growth --- VII – The Long Era of “Tama” Jim Wilson ---VIII – Houston, Planner, and World War I — March 6, 1913 to February 1, 1920 --- IX – Aftermath of World War I — February 2, 1920 to March 4, 1925 --- X – Calm Before the New Deal — March 5, 1925 to March 4, 1933 --- XI – The New Deal in Agriculture --- XII – Wickard, Dirt Farmer, and World War II — September 5, 1940 to June 30, 1945 --- XIII – Aftermath of World War II – July 1, 1945 to the present --- XIV – Is the Job Done? |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, International Relations/Trade, Labor and Human Capital, Land Economics/Use, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing, Political Economy, Public Economics, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usdami:358658 |
| By: | Tsoulfidis, Lefteris |
| Abstract: | Smith's theory of value and distribution, which emphasizes labor time as the determinant of prices, has been widely misunderstood. Ricardo misinterpreted it as relevant only to primitive societies, while Marx mistakenly aligned it with his own labor theory of value. In reality, Smith’s perspective oscillates between a labor-based and a labor-commanded approach to relative prices, intended for modern economies. Neoclassical economists further distorted Smith’s views by incorporating utility theory. Moreover, while Smith is often linked to the theory of a falling rate of profit due to competition, he actually attributed it to rising capital intensity. Contrary to the belief that Smith was a staunch advocate of free markets, he supported reasonable government intervention. |
| Keywords: | Labor theory of value, falling rate of profit, labor commanded, capital intensity |
| JEL: | B00 B31 B51 N00 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124796 |
| By: | Hatton, Timothy J. (University of Essex) |
| Abstract: | The transition from sail to steam for emigrant ships on the route to Australia took place in the early 1880s, nearly two decades later than on the route across the Atlantic. The lag can be accounted for by the incremental improvement in steam technology and by aspects of economic and business organisation. Most of the steamship ventures that were initiated failed, but with one important exception. Brunel’s pioneering steamship the SS Great Britain made 32 voyages to Australia from 1852 to 1875 with a total of nearly 16, 000 passengers. The Great Britain’s success provides a unique perspective on why steam failed to rule the emigrant trade until the 1880s. Among the key features are the characteristics of the ship and the way it was adapted for the long voyage to the antipodes. Also important was the shrewd management of its owners, and an element of luck. |
| Keywords: | shipping organisation, steamships, colonial Australia |
| JEL: | F22 N77 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17926 |
| By: | Tullio Jappelli (University of Naples Federico II, CSEF, and CEPR); Ettore Savoia (Sveriges Riksbank and CeMoF); Alessandro Sciacchetano (London School of Economics and Political Science) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies a place-based industrial policy (PBIP) aiming to establish industrial clusters in Italy in the 1960s-70s. Combining historical archives spanning one century with administrative data and leveraging exogenous variation in government intervention, we investigate both the immediate effects of PBIP and its long-term implications for local development. We document agglomeration of workers and firms in the targeted areas persisting well after the end of the policy. By promoting high-technology manufacturing, PBIP favored demand for business services and the emergence of a skilled local workforce. Over time, this produced a spillover from manufacturing – the only sector targeted by the program – to services, especially in knowledge-intensive jobs. Accordingly, we estimate higher local wages, human capital, and house prices in the long run. We provide suggestive evidence that these persistent effects may depend on the initial conditions of targeted locations. |
| Keywords: | place-based industrial policy, employment, wages, agglomeration |
| JEL: | J24 N94 O14 O25 R58 |
| Date: | 2024–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:733 |
| By: | Lucia Corno (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Eliana La Ferrara; Alessandra Voena |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the historical origins of female genital cutting (FGC). We test the historical hypothesis that FGC is associated with the Red Sea route of the African slave trade, where women were typically sold as concubines in the Middle East and infibulation was used as a means to preserve virginity. Using individual-level data from 28 African countries combined with historical records of Red Sea slave shipments from 1400 to 1900, we find that women from ethnic groups whose ancestors experienced greater exposure to the Red Sea slave trade are more likely to undergo infibulation or circumcision today. They are also more inclined to support the continuation of this practice. Our findings are robust to instrumenting Red Sea slave exports with the distance to the nearest port used for this route. We also leverage a dataset on oral traditions (Folklore) to show that greater exposure to the Red Sea slave trade correlates with a stronger association between infibulation and the cultural values of chastity and purity, which may have facilitated the diffusion of infibulation among local populations. |
| Keywords: | FGC, FGM, social norms, slave trade, Africa. |
| JEL: | O10 I11 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie1:def138 |
| By: | Gottschalk, Sandra (Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, ZEW); Schmucker, Alexandra (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Wolter, Stefanie (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Zimmermann, Florian (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "The Mannheim Enterprise Panel linked to the Establishment History Panel (MUP-BHP) is made up of cross-sectional datasets from 2010 onwards. Cross-section datasets include all linkable liability companies (GmbH) and limited liability entrepreneurial companies (UG) from the Mannheim Enterprise Panel (MUP) and their linked establishments in Germany that are recorded in the Employee History Panel (BeH) as of 31 December. This linkage of companies and establishments is based on a record linkage of the address data of the MUP held by the Leibniz Institute for European Economic Research and the establishment address data at the IAB. The individual cross-sectional datasets contain information on the establishments and enterprises as well as an additional file on shareholders. The data sets can be combined to form a panel. This data report describes the Mannheim Enterprise Panel linked with the Establishment History Panel (MUP-BHP) 2010-2023." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Datenaufbereitung ; Datengewinnung ; Datenqualität ; Datenzugang ; IAB-Beschäftigtenhistorik ; IAB-Betriebs-Historik-Panel ; Datenfusion ; Querschnittuntersuchung ; Mannheimer Unternehmenspanel verknüpft mit Betriebs-Historik-Panel ; 10.5164/IAB.MUP-BHP1023.de.en.v1 ; 2010-2020 |
| Date: | 2025–05–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfda:202503(en) |
| By: | Lane, Nathaniel |
| Abstract: | I study the impact of industrial policies on industrial development by considering an important episode during the East Asian miracle: South Korea's heavy and chemical industry (HCI) drive, 1973--1979. Based on newly assembled data, I use the introduction and termination of industrial policies to study their impacts during and after the intervention period. (1) I reveal that heavy-chemical industrial policies promoted the expansion and dynamic comparative advantage of directly targeted industries. (2) Using variation in exposure to policies through the input-output network, I demonstrate that the policy indirectly benefited downstream users of targeted intermediates. (3) The benefits of HCI persisted even after the policy ended, as some results were slower to appear. The findings suggest that the temporary drive shifted Korean manufacturing into more advanced markets and supported durable change. This study helps clarify the lessons drawn from the East Asian growth miracle. |
| Keywords: | industrial policy, big push, East Asian miracle, industrial development |
| JEL: | O25 L5 O14 N6 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:318267 |
| By: | Daiji Kawaguchi (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Tetsuji Okazaki (, The University of Tokyo); Xuanli Zhu (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo) |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2025cf1249 |
| By: | AIBA, Ikuto; YAMAGHISHI, Atsushi |
| Abstract: | We examine how the inflow of external income shapes the pattern of urbanization and the economic structure. We focus on the unique case of Okinawa in Japan, where many US military bases were constructed for strategic reasons and the income inflow from them accounted for up to 40% of the aggregate income. Using newly digitized data, we first document rapid urbanization near the bases, driven by service sector expansion rather than manufacturing. We then develop a new quantitative spatial model and calibrate it to the Okinawan economy in 1970. Our counterfactual analysis highlights that the US-base related income was crucial to urbanization without industrialization. Contrary to Dutch disease concerns, we find that such urbanization without industrialization significantly increased aggregate income and welfare. |
| Keywords: | Urbanization, Service sector, Quantitative spatial model, Military bases, Okinawa |
| JEL: | O14 O18 N40 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hituec:767 |
| By: | Matus-López, Mauricio |
| Abstract: | This article presents a scoping review of the scholarly literature on the historical, institutional, and economic evolution of the health systems of Chile, Uruguay, and Costa Rica. These three countries were selected due to their differing institutional trajectories—market-oriented (Chile), universal public (Costa Rica), and hybrid-transitioning (Uruguay)—as well as their shared current status of near-universal coverage and high human development. The review aimed to systematically map peer-reviewed publications to identify key institutions, landmark reforms, long-term quantitative indicators, and critical assessments of system performance. A structured search was conducted in Web of Science, Scopus, and SciELO using terms related to health systems, institutional development, financing, and the three countries. After removing duplicates and applying thematic and geographic filters, 42 articles were selected for full-text analysis. Findings show a disproportionate focus on Chile, reflecting its globally unique model of function separation and private insurance. Costa Rica's system is consistently framed around the centrality of the CCSS and its primary care reforms, though discussion of the private sector remains limited. In Uruguay, the 2007 reform establishing the Integrated National Health System (SNIS) receives positive coverage, while earlier periods remain underexplored. Across cases, available quantitative data is fragmented and short-term, limiting comparative and longitudinal analysis. Despite coverage gaps, the review confirms key trends identified in broader literature and underscores the need to incorporate non-indexed sources—such as national reports and historical monographs—to fully grasp the institutional evolution of Latin American health systems |
| Keywords: | health care; health systems; history; institutions; Chile; Uruguay, Costa Rica, Latin America |
| JEL: | I11 I14 I15 I18 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124790 |
| By: | Siwan Anderson; Sophia du Plessis; Sahar Parsa; James A. Robinson |
| Abstract: | Research on female political representation has tended to overlook the traditional role of women as leaders across many societies. Our study aims to address this gap by investigating the enduring influence of historical female political leadership on contemporary formal political representation in Africa. We test for this persistence by compiling two original datasets: one detailing female political leadership in precolonial societies and another on current female representation in local elections. Our findings indicate that ethnic groups historically allowing women in leadership roles in politics do tend to have a higher proportion of elected female representatives in today’s formal local political institutions. We also observe that institutional, rather than economic, factors significantly shape the traditional political influence of women. Moreover, in accordance with historical accounts, we uncover evidence of a reversal of female political power due to institutional changes enforced by colonial powers. |
| JEL: | D72 J16 N47 P00 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33838 |
| By: | Facundo Alvaredo (PSE-WIL, LSE-III, and IIEP-UBA); François Bourguignon (Paris School of Economics and University of New York in Abu Dhabi); Francisco Ferreira (London School of Economics and IZA); Nora Lustig (Tulane University and Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | Drawing on a comprehensive compilation of quantile shares and inequality measures for 34 countries, including over 5, 600 estimated Gini coefficients, we review the measurement of income inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean over the last seven decades. We find that there is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding inequality levels for the same country/year combinations. Differences in inequality levels estimated from household surveys alone are present but they derive from differences in the construction of the welfare indicator, the unit of analysis, or the treatment of the data. With harmonized household surveys, the discrepancies are quite small. The range, however, expands significantly when, to correct for undercoverage and underreporting especially at the top of the distribution, inequality estimates come from some combination of surveys and administrative tax data. The range increases even further when survey-based income aggregates are scaled to achieve consistency not only with tax registries but with National Accounts. Since no single method to correct for underreporting at the top is fully convincing at present, we are left with (often wide) ranges, or bands, of inequality as our best summaries of inequality levels. Reassuringly, however, the dynamic patterns are generally robust across the bands. Although the evidence roughly until the 1970s is too fragmentary and difficult to compare, clearer patterns emerge for the last fifty years. The main feature is a broad inverted U curve, with inequality rising in most countries prior to and often during the 1990s, and falling during the early 21st century, at least until around 2015, when trends appear to diverge across countries. This pattern is broadly robust but features considerable variation in timing and magnitude depending on the country. |
| Keywords: | income inequality, measurement, Latin America and the Caribbean |
| JEL: | D31 D63 O54 |
| Date: | 2025–06–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:719 |
| By: | Johannes Buggle (University of Innsbruck); Max Deter (Max Deter Berlin School of Economics, University of Potsdam, CEPA); Martin Lange (ZEW Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how network ties between local social leaders influenced the diffusion of mass protests in an autocracy. We focus on the Protestant Church and the Peaceful Revolution in East Germany. To quantify the role of leader networks in protest diffusion, we compile biographical records of over 1, 600 Protestant pastors, including their employment and education histories. Our findings reveal that network connections led to an increase in protest diffusion by up to 4.9 percentage points in a given week. Moreover, we highlight the importance of network centrality, pastors as information bridges, and the interaction with preexisting grievances and repression. |
| Keywords: | autocracy, religion, protests, networks, leaders |
| JEL: | D72 D74 N44 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pot:cepadp:87 |
| By: | Medel-Ramírez, Carlos |
| Abstract: | The document presents an in-depth analysis of a crucial chapter in the history of human rights in Mexico—the 1958 Poza Rica event, often referred to as Goyo's Massacre. This book investigates the harrowing episode that unfolded in the wake of accusations of electoral misconduct, highlighting the severe crackdown on oil workers who were protesting, by the authorities. The book draws on the intellectual frameworks of notable figures such as Amartya Sen, Martha Nussbaum, and John Rawls to critically analyze the moral and social repercussions of this bleak period. It addresses the restriction of fundamental rights, including civic participation, access to public services, and the guarantee of security, rights from which the victims were deprived. Moreover, it explores the massacre's lasting impact on Mexico's human rights discourse, catalyzing legal and social reforms to address the nation's past and influence global conversations on human rights. Furthermore, the book details the National Human Rights Commission (CNDH)'s strategies for remedying these injustices, including calls for public apologies, maintenance of commemorative sites, initiatives for formal recognition of victims, and psychological assistance for their relatives. It aims to deepen discussions on human rights and justice by providing a comprehensive and morally aware exposition of the Poza Rica Massacre's continuing legacy. |
| Keywords: | Poza Rica Massacre Human rights violations Historical injustice Mexico's political landscape CNDH investigation |
| JEL: | K00 K42 N46 O54 Z18 |
| Date: | 2024–02–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120423 |
| By: | Kox, Henk L.M. |
| Abstract: | The statistics on foreign direct investment (FDI) used to be important quantifiers of ownership-based control over foreign companies. However, during the 2008 financial crisis, IMF and OECD changed the FDI definition to obtain more information on intra-company finance activity. They did so by giving cross-border loans between affiliated subsidiaries (within the same parent firm) the same status as acquiring ownership of foreign firms. The change became effective in 2013. The paper shows that it resulted in a systematic drop of quality and consistency of FDI statistics, while causing massive double counting. It made comparison between pre- and post-2013 FDI statistics impossible. We propose a methodology to repair this historical mistake by emulating the pre-2013 FDI definition, which was based primarily on FDI assets. The paper provides a full proof-of-concept with a dataset holding bilateral FDI between 232 jurisdictions over the period 2001-2022. The dataset is strictly based on reported data; it uses no estimation or imputation. The new dataset is evaluated quantitatively by a comparison with the original source data. The paper also quantifies the dimensions and the country structure of 'phantom FDI' that resulted from current double-counting practices. |
| Keywords: | foreign direct investment (FDI); accounting framework; multinational companies; capital account; double counting; balance of payments. |
| JEL: | C18 C33 F21 F23 F3 F38 M2 |
| Date: | 2025–05–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124812 |
| By: | Aurélien Goutsmedt (ISPOLE - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain, F.R.S.-FNRS, ICHEC - Brussels Management School [Bruxelles]); Francesco Sergi (LIPHA - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire d'étude du Politique Hannah Arendt Paris-Est - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - Université Gustave Eiffel) |
| Abstract: | This article introduces a new conceptual framework for examining the transformation of central banks' activities at the intersection of science and politics. The article relies on the results of four historical case studies gathered by the special issue "The Scientization of Central Banks. National Patterns and Global Trends"—to which this article provides also an introduction. We start with an analysis of Martin Marcussen's concept of "scientization", originally formulated to describe the changes within central banks since the 2000s. After highlighting how Marcussen's concept has raised different interpretations, we broaden our scope to examine how "scientization" is applied in the wider social sciences, extending beyond the study of central banks. This brings to the fore two ideas: scientization as "boundary work" (redrawing the line between "science" and "non-science") happening both in the public-facing ("frontstage") and internal ("backstage") activities of organizations. Finally, we suggest how these two ideas can be used to reinterpret "scientization" of central banks as the emergence of central banks as "boundary organizations". This reframing allows us to untangle and clarify the phenomena previously conflated under the original concept of scientization, offering a more coherent framework for ongoing research on central banks. |
| Keywords: | Central bank, Scientization, Expertise, Boundary organization |
| Date: | 2025–04–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04518367 |
| By: | Álvaro Fernández-Gallardo (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Iván Payá (UNIVERSIDAD DE ALICANTE) |
| Abstract: | Recent theoretical studies have highlighted that both the level of public debt and the unit cost of servicing the debt (r-g) play a role in the sustainability of public finances. This paper builds on this literature and introduces a new approach to analysing the relationship between economic downturns and sovereign debt risks by considering the total public debt burden, that is, the interaction between the level of debt and r-g. We conduct this analysis for 18 advanced economies over a span of 150 years, uncovering three novel findings. First, we document that the level of public debt and the interest-growth differential convey distinct information about public finances conditions, reinforcing the argument for incorporating both measures in the assessment of sovereign debt sustainability risks. Second, we offer a long-term historical perspective on the role of the total public debt burden in shaping the severity of recessions and the pace of subsequent recoveries. Our findings demonstrate that a high public debt burden is associated with deeper economic contractions, sharper declines in investment, deflationary pressures and pronounced credit contractions during recessions. Further analysis of plausible transmission mechanisms suggests that an elevated total debt burden at the onset of recessions is linked to more limited accommodative policies during financial crises. Third, we document the feedback effects of financial crises on the components of the total public debt burden, demonstrating that both the level and cost of public debt systematically deteriorate, thereby heightening the risk of sovereign debt crises in the aftermath of financial turmoil. |
| Keywords: | financial crises, sovereign debt sustainability, r-g, local projections |
| JEL: | E62 G01 H63 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2527 |
| By: | Christian Ochsner; Lukas Schmid |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of the largest adverse health shock in modern medicine - the 1918 influenza pandemic - on subsequent shifts in health-related attitudes and behavior and future-oriented policies. Our analysis builds upon self-digitized, individual-level death-register excerpts, vaccination records, and popular vote counts. We find that greater exposure to influenza leads to a decline in societal support for public health measures at the aggregate level, mainly triggered by deceased peers. However, individual-level data reveal increased vaccination rates in families who experienced influenza-related deaths. These differences did not exist before the pandemic. Our findings link to a U-shaped relationship between suffering from the pandemic and support for effective health policies. Places with predominantly indirectly-affected families drive the aggregate backlash. This challenges the idea that past health shocks improve life expectancy through societal learning. |
| Keywords: | health behavior, health attitudes, 1918 influenza pandemic, mistrust |
| JEL: | I12 I18 H51 D72 N34 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11903 |
| By: | Basile Clerc |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relevance of the incomes policy advocated by Claude Gruson in the 1960s to address the inflationary pressures characteristic of the crisis of the "Fordist regime" in France. To this end, we draw on the unprecedented study of the Gruson report submitted to Georges Pompidou in 1964. Despite its theoretical coherence, this policy was rejected by Pompidou, who ordered the physical destruction of the report copies due to its "sensitive" nature. Rooted in the perspective of the regulation theory and enriched by neo-realist political economy, this study demonstrates how Gruson’s proposal, based on a “proto-regulationist” analysis of inflation, could have acted as an institutional stabilizer by limiting distributive conflicts at the heart of the crisis. Pompidou’s decision, emblematic of the realignments taking place in the 1960s, marks a step towards a neoliberal regulatory framework. The article thus highlights the interactions between structural transformations and political decisions, underscoring how the abandonment of incomes policy reflects the shifts within the "dominant social bloc" in 1960s France. |
| Keywords: | incomes policy; crisis of Fordism; regulation theory |
| JEL: | E64 N00 E31 M48 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2025-26 |
| By: | Bosker, M.; Haasbroek, M. |
| Abstract: | We use detailed historical data on India’s domestic infrastructure to show how its high domestic transport costs have conditioned the local labour market consequences of its drastic import tariff liberalization in the early 1990s. We find that districts located farther away from the country’s main international gateways are better shielded from the resulting increased foreign import competition: their non-agricultural employment falls less than in otherwise similarly exposed districts located closer to India’s major ports. At the same time, they also benefit less from improved access to foreign intermediates: non-agricultural employment increases less than in districts with a similar input-output structure but located closer to the country’s main ports. These employment responses also vary across firms of different sizes: employment in small to medium sized firms is hit hardest by increased import competition, whereas employment in medium to large firms benefits most from better access to foreign intermediates. This difference between small and large firms is also most pronounced in districts best-connected to India’s major ports. |
| Keywords: | Words Gains from Trade, Domestic Infrastructure, Local Labour Demand, India |
| JEL: | F14 F15 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–04–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camjip:2512 |
| By: | Morea, Alejandro Hernán |
| Abstract: | En febrero de 1817, el gobernador de Salta, Martín Miguel de Güemes, ordenó la prisión del coronel José Antonio Moldes y la apertura de un sumario bajo la acusación de socavar su autoridad, intentar pervertir el orden de la defensa y conspirar para la formación de un partido propio. Moldes no solo rechazó los cargos en su contra, sino que, en su defensa, alegó que la reunión que había tenido en la campaña salteña solo había versado sobre el derecho de gentes, las bases del gobierno representativo y los principios de legitimidad de la autoridad. La acusación tuvo lugar cuando las Provincias Unidas discutían cuál debía ser el rumbo de la nueva nación una vez declarada la Independencia el 9 de julio de 1816. A partir de trabajar con el expediente seguido contra moldes, se buscarán dilucidar el rol que tuvo este sumario militar en el proceso de exclusión política de este militar salteño en un contexto donde las bases del sistema político republicano no estaban consolidadas y no parecía haber mecanismos claros de resolución pacífica de los conflictos dentro de los marcos institucionales existentes. |
| Keywords: | Historia; Provincias Unidas; Sumario Militar; Exclusión; Argentina; 1816-1819; |
| Date: | 2025–05–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:4326 |
| By: | Daniel S. Hamermesh |
| Abstract: | This study examines publications in three leading general economics journals from the 1960s through the 2020s, considering levels and trends in the demographics of authors, methodologies of the studies, and patterns of co-authorship. The average age of authors has increased nearly steadily; there has been a sharp increase in the fraction of female authors; the number of authors per paper has risen steadily; and there has been a pronounced shift to articles using newly generated data. All but the first of these trends have been most pronounced in the most recent decade. The study also examines the relationships among these trends. |
| JEL: | A14 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33731 |
| By: | Richard K. Crump; Nikolay Gospodinov |
| Abstract: | Since World War II, the U.S. economy has experienced twelve recessions—one every sixty-four months, on average. Though infrequent, these contractions can cause considerable pain and disruption, with the unemployment rate rising by at least 2.5 percentage points in each of the past four recessions. Given the consequences of an economic downturn, businesses and households are perennially interested in the near-term probability of a recession. In this post, we describe our research on a related issue: how much uncertainty is there around recession probability estimates from economic models? |
| Keywords: | recession predictability; term spread; uncertainty; quantification |
| JEL: | C52 C53 E32 E37 |
| Date: | 2025–05–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:100023 |