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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Giacomo Corneo |
| Abstract: | History shows militarily dominant states that pursue imperialism, relying on their might to extort resources from weaker states. Occasionally, the latter revolt and the dominant state suffers some casualties. This paper explores imperialism along steady-growth paths. If the dominant state maximizes domestic welfare, it should eventually give up imperialism because its safety costs asymptotically overrun its material benefits. To shed light on diametrically opposed historical records, I propose a model of endogenous ideology and war bias in which the political elite cares about self-image. If that concern is strong enough, the political elite gradually identifies with its country's mission of hegemony and imperialism persists. It is first driven by material concerns and later by ideal ones. Despite its divergent preferences, the population of a dominant state generally has little interest to oppose imperialism. |
| Keywords: | imperialism, long-run growth, value of life, self-image. |
| JEL: | H80 N40 O00 Z10 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11797 |
| By: | Francis, Joseph A. |
| Abstract: | Two natural experiments challenge the view that slavery impeded the growth of American capitalism. An event study shows that farm values fell relative to the national average in slave states following abolition. A spatial regression discontinuity design (RDD) then suggests that any negative effects of slavery’s legality on farm values on the free-slave state border were counteracted by the institution’s practical utility. An explanation of these results can also be advanced: slavery provided a relatively cheap agricultural labor force in parts of the South where white Americans preferred not to settle. From this perspective, the growth of American capitalism was promoted rather than impeded by slavery. |
| Keywords: | economic history, event study, spatial regression discontinuity design, slavery, United States |
| JEL: | J47 N11 N21 N51 O43 |
| Date: | 2025–04–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124379 |
| By: | Sheila Masson; Alan Potts; Allan Williams; Steve Berggreen; Kevin McLaren; Sam Martin; Eugenio Noda; Nicklas Nordfors; Nic Ruecroft; Hannah Druckenmiller; Solomon Hsiang; Andreas Madestam; Anna Tompsett |
| Abstract: | During the 20th Century, aerial surveys captured hundreds of millions of high-resolution photographs of the earth's surface. These images, the precursors to modern satellite imagery, represent an extraordinary visual record of the environmental and social upheavals of the 20th Century. However, most of these images currently languish in physical archives where retrieval is difficult and costly. Digitization could revolutionize access, but manual scanning is slow and expensive. Here, we describe and validate a novel robot-assisted pipeline that increases worker productivity in scanning 30-fold, applied at scale to digitize an archive of 1.7 million historical aerial photographs from 65 countries. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2503.24063 |
| By: | Claridge, Jordan; Delabastita, Vincent; Gibbs, Spike |
| Abstract: | Much of our understanding of the dynamics of historical economies has been shaped by insights drawn from long-run wage series. Behind much scholarship concerning pre-industrial wages lies the quest for a representative ‘average’ wage trend. Indeed, much methodological discussion surrounds what characterizes an ‘average’ labourer and how best to capture their wages. This paper offers an alternative perspective by undertaking a comprehensive assessment of the diverse forms and levels of remuneration, including both pay rates and methods of payment. We find groups of workers whose working and earning was seemingly unaffected by the societal transmutations which followed the Black Death. At the same time, we find evidence of the ‘commercialization’ of labour markets: a process in which cash wages on lords’ demesne farms were increasingly shaped by market forces, and a more professionalized labour force was supplemented by a variety of higher-paid peripheral jobs. This paper highlights the need for a holistic perspective to fully appreciate the dynamics and statics of pre-industrial labour markets. |
| Keywords: | wages; labour markets; medieval England; inequality |
| JEL: | J33 J42 N33 N53 |
| Date: | 2025–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:128024 |
| By: | Sascha O. Becker; Amma Panin; Steven Pfaff; Jared Rubin |
| Abstract: | This chapter examines the role of religion in economic development, both historically and today. Religion’s influence varies globally, with high religiosity in countries like Pakistan and low rates in China. Despite declines in some Western countries, religion remains influential worldwide, with projected growth in Muslim populations due to higher fertility rates. Religion continues to shape societal norms and institutions, such as education and politics, even after its direct influence fades. The chapter explores how religious institutions and norms have impacted economic outcomes, focusing on both persistence and decline. It also examines cultural transmission, institutional entrenchment, networks, and religious competition as mechanisms sustaining religion’s influence. We explore the relationship between religion and secularization, showing that economic development does not always reduce religiosity. Lastly, the chapter highlights gaps in the literature and suggests future research areas on the evolving role of religion in economic development. |
| Keywords: | religion, economic development, religiosity, cultural transmission, secularization, historical persistence, religious competition, networks, social norms |
| JEL: | D85 I25 J10 N30 O33 O43 P48 Z10 Z12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11724 |
| By: | Salvatore Carrozzo |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of a temporary forced internal migration on the voting behavior in the receiving municipalities. During World War I, around 500, 00 thousand displaced nationals were resettled from the Italian government within the country and stayed in the receiving place for less than two years. Leveraging on the quasi-random relocation policy and the short stay of displaced individuals, I evaluate whether hosting a large share of forced migrants affects voting behavior in the subsequent elections. Findings indicate that an increase in the share of hosted displaced individuals corresponds to a decrease in the vote share for the Italian Popular Party (PPI), the Catholic party. This aligns with historical evidence highlighting the significant role of Catholic associations in assisting displaced people at arrival. The negative impact on the Catholic party persisted for two consecutive elections, 1919 and 1921, before dissipating in 1924. Anti-competitive behavior for public services is likely to explain the voting behavior. |
| Keywords: | displaced people, political outcomes, public spending, resettlement policies |
| JEL: | D72 H53 I38 N34 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11737 |
| By: | Amélie Allegre; Oana Borcan; Christa Brunnschweiler; Christa N. Brunnschweiler |
| Abstract: | We examine colonial-era primary education as a determinant of modern-day attainment and gender disparities in education. We construct a novel dataset from the French Protectorate in Morocco, combining archival data on colonial school locations in 1931 and 1954 with the most recent Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data in arbitrary grids. We analyse the influence of colonial schools on the probability of attaining primary and secondary education in 2004. Overall, schools dedicated to Moroccans in 1931 exhibit a persistent positive impact on education outcomes, but only in the absence of nearby schools reserved for Europeans. Stark gender gaps in access during the Protectorate were narrowed in places with schools for Jewish Moroccans. These had a positive impact on girls’ contemporary levels of education, but a negative impact on the enrolment for boys following the dismantling of Jewish communities after 1948. DHS measures of preferences for female education point to a social norms transmission mechanism between Jewish and Muslim Moroccan communities. |
| Keywords: | education, colonial legacy, female education, Morocco, French Protectorate |
| JEL: | N37 O15 I21 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11725 |
| By: | Doepke, Matthias (London School of Economics); Foerster, Hanno (Boston College); Hannusch, Anne (University of Bonn); Tertilt, Michèle (University of Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | During the first half of the twentieth century, many US states enacted laws restricting women's labor market opportunities, including maximum hours restrictions, minimum wage laws, and night-shift bans. The era of so-called protective labor laws came to an end in the 1960s as a result of civil rights reforms. In this paper, we investigate the political economy behind the rise and fall of these laws. We argue that the main driver behind protective labor laws was men's desire to shield themselves from labor market competition. We spell out the mechanism through a politico-economic model in which singles and couples work in different sectors and vote on protective legislation. Restrictions are supported by single men and couples with male sole earners who compete with women for jobs. We show that the theory's predictions for when protective legislation will be introduced are well supported by US state-level evidence. |
| Keywords: | structural transformation, labor market competition, women's rights, political economy, protective legislation, family economics, gender |
| JEL: | D13 D72 D78 E24 J12 J16 N30 O10 O43 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17857 |
| By: | Timothy J. Hatton |
| Abstract: | This chapter focuses on economic and demographic aspects of intercontinental migration. The coverage is selective, with a particular focus on emigration from Europe to the ‘New World’ in the first globalisation era. This is where most of the rich quantitative historical literature has concentrated, often employing the methodology that has been used to analyse more modern data. The first section reviews the motivations behind, and determinants of, the major historical migration flows. This is followed by an outline of migrant selectivity or self-selection—how the composition of migrants compares with that of the source population. I then turn to aspects of migrant integration in destination countries with a focus on intermarriage between immigrants and the native-born and on migrant fertility. The final section examines if and how dramatic changes in the world economy and the rise of immigration policies changed migration between the two eras of globalisation. This is followed by a short conclusion. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:hpaper:130 |
| By: | Mhamed Ben Salah (South Mediterranean University, Mediterranean School of Business); Cédric Chambru (ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon, CERGIC - Center for Economic Research on Governance, Inequality and Conflict - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon); Maleke Fourati (South Mediterranean University, Mediterranean School of Business) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses spatial variations in the enrolment rate of Tunisian pupils in 1931 to estimate the weight of colonial history on medium- and long-run educational attainment. We assemble a new dataset on the location of public primary schools and the number of pupils and teachers, together with population data for 1931. We match these data with information on education at the district level, derived from two population censuses conducted in 1984 and 2014. We find that a one per cent increase in the enrolment rate in 1931 is associated with a 2.37 percentage points increase in the literacy rate in 1984, and a 1.89 percentage points increase in 2014. We further investigate the exposure to colonial public primary education across different age cohorts. We find that our results are mainly driven by older generations, and tend to fade for younger cohorts. While we provide qualitative evidence that a cultural transmission of education may have contributed to this persistence, we also argue that the continuous effort and investment made by Tunisian governments to achieve universal primary enrolment best explain the decline in spatial disparities in educational attainment. |
| Keywords: | Colonial investment, Colonial settlers, Primary education, Literacy, Tunisia |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05004027 |
| By: | Edward Nelson |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the revival in the analysis of monetary policy rules that took place during the 1990s. The focus is on the role that John Taylor played in this revival. It is argued that Taylor’s role—most notably through his advancing the Taylor rule, developed in 1992−1993 and increasingly permeating discussions in research and policy circles over the subsequent several years—is usefully viewed as one of building bridges. In particular, Taylor created links between a monetary policy rules tradition closely associated with Milton Friedman and an interest-rate setting tradition long associated with central banks. The rules tradition had looked unfavorably on interest-rate setting, while the central bank tradition was unfavorably disposed toward policy rules. The Taylor rule helped create a compromise between the traditions, while also advancing an interest-rate reaction function that helped create a revival during the 1990s of economic research on monetary policy rules. |
| Keywords: | Taylor rule; Interest rate rules |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2025–03–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2025-23 |
| By: | Quentin Belot Couloumies (UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Céline Baud (Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres) |
| Abstract: | Through a longitudinal case study spanning 1965 to 2020, this article scrutinizes the evolution of the influential French Peugeot family's ownership strategies. It elucidates how the family transitioned from industrial management to becoming a significant player in international financial investment. By delving into archival materials and conducting interviews with key executives and family members, this study illustrates the family's adeptness at maintaining control over its industrial empire by associating external financiers and in fine unlocking resources for other lucrative financial ventures. This transformation was facilitated by a sophisticated three-tiered holding structure, which served dual purposes: overseeing capital control and managing private wealth, often through private equity mechanisms. Given the widespread adoption of such financial structures among European corporations and wealthy families, we advocate the need to pierce this "holding veil" to understand capital accumulation transformations for large families in the long run. |
| Keywords: | Capital Accumulation, Holding company, Family ownership, Corporate financialization, Business economics, Governance, Accounting, Sociology of elites |
| Date: | 2025–03–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04911536 |
| By: | Gregory Heem (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Luc Marco |
| Abstract: | The first practical guide to the regulations governing the leasing of accounting services was published in 1899 by business lawyer Louis Rachou under the enticing title Code des comptables. This edition was a great success, with the Ministry of Commerce purchasing several hundred copies. A second edition appeared in 1908, again written by the legal advisor to the Société Académique de Comptabilité. By the mid-1930s, however, the text had become outdated and out of date. That's why our author enlisted the services of another business lawyer specializing in private accountancy: René Georges-Etienne. This edition, re-examined, corrected and enlarged, underwent a final revision in 1939, again under the direction of Louis Rachou's favorite collaborator. Thus, for 40 years, this was the reference work of the French accounting profession. It is the third edition of 1934 that we offer in this annotated reprint, as this volume has disappeared from the main public libraries in our country. By taking stock of the legal regulations governing accounting firms, the self-employed and even itinerant accountants, this work is the precursor of today's professional ethics manuals. As such, it deserves to be reread and meditated upon to understand how accountants took the reins of their profession at the time of the great economic crisis of the 1930s. |
| Abstract: | Le premier guide pratique sur la réglementation du louage de services comptables a été publié en 1899 par l'avocat d'affaires Louis Rachou sous le titre alléchant de Code des comptables. Cette édition a connu un vif succès puisque le ministère du Commerce en a acheté plusieurs centaines d'exemplaires. Une deuxième édition parut en 1908, toujours sous la plume du conseiller juridique de la Société Académique de Comptabilité. Mais au milieu des années trente, le texte avait vieilli et n'était plus à jour. C'est pourquoi notre auteur s'est adjoint les services d'un autre avocat d'affaires spécialisé en comptabilité privée : René Georges-Etienne. Cette édition, re-vue, corrigée et augmentée, fera enfin l'objet d'une dernière révision en 1939, toujours sous la direction du collaborateur préféré de Louis Rachou. Ainsi, pendant 40 ans, ce fut l'ouvrage de référence de la profession comptable française. C'est la troisième édition de 1934 que nous proposons dans cette réédition commentée, car ce volume a disparu des principales biblio-thèques publiques de notre pays. En faisant le point sur la réglementation juridique qui encadrait les cabinets de comptabilité, les indépendants et même les comptables ambulants, cet ouvrage est le précurseur des manuels actuels de déontologie de la profession. A ce titre, il mérite d'être relu et médité pour comprendre comment les comptables ont pris les rênes de leur profession au moment de la grande crise économique des années trente. |
| Keywords: | Comptable, Comptable en entreprise, Comptable agréés, Expert comptable, Louage de service, Louage de services, Louis Rachou, René Georges-Etienne, Histoire de la comptabilité, Histoire de la profession comptable, Prud'homie, Prud'homme, Prud'hommes, déontologie, déontologie du comptable, Profession comptable, Profession comptable française, Profession comptable libérale |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05011444 |
| By: | Yükçü, Onur |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how ethnic networks shaped trade among Armenian, Greek, Jewish, and Turkish traders in Istanbul after the collapse of the OttomanEmpire. I draw on a novel micro-dataset of 3, 777 transactions extracted frombulletins of the Istanbul Commodity Exchange published in December 1928.These sources provide detailed information on commodity type, geographicalorigin, price, quantity, contract type, and the names of buyers and sellers. Incontrast to much of the trade literature that relies on administrative unit-levelethnic or religious shares, the use of transaction-level data enables a more preciseanalysis of the role of ethnic networks in commerce. Building on the theoreticalframeworks developed by Janet T. Landa (1981) and Avner Greif (1989, 1993, 2006), I also test how ethnic homophily operated through certain channels. Theempirical findings reveal the existence of a Greek trade coalition in post-OttomanIstanbul: Greek traders were significantly more likely to transact with one anotherand less likely to trade with Armenians, Jews, or Turks. Greek-Greek transactionsare associated with an average increase of approximately 26% in transaction valuein flour trade. The Greek trade coalition appears to have reduced transaction costsfor its members, equivalent to approximately 10% of the seller's profit. Since Icontrol for flour quality, the findings on transaction value and costs are notconfounded by quality-related variation. Moreover, in long-distance tradeinvolving agricultural imports, Greek traders were more likely to trade with one another. |
| Keywords: | Homophily; Greek merchants; Ottoman economic history; Interwar Turkey; Cultural networks |
| JEL: | N85 F14 D85 |
| Date: | 2025–04–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:46490 |
| By: | Jost, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Mit der Abschaffung der D-Mark und der Einführung des Euro waren Hoffnungen verbunden, aber auch Befürchtungen, dass die neue Währung nicht so stabil wie die D-Mark sein könnte. Die D-Mark gehörte international über 50 Jahre zu den zwei Währungen mit den niedrigsten Inflationsraten. In diesem Beitrag wird die Entwicklung der Preise und der Kaufkraft in Deutschland in zwei gleich langen Perioden vor und nach der Euro-Einführung verglichen. Der Euro weist dabei sogar geringere durchschnittliche Inflationsraten, gemessen an den Verbraucherpreisen in Deutschland, als die D-Mark auf. In den Jahren 1999 bis 2020 herrschte weltweit ein günstigeres Inflationsumfeld, was es auch der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) leichter machte, ihr Preisstabilitätsziel zu verfolgen. Die ersten schweren Herausforderungen ergaben sich für die EZB seit 2021, als die Inflationsrate aufgrund negativer Angebotsschocks und einer beispiellosen Fiskalexpansion auf über 10% anstieg. Die Deutsche Bundesbank konnte in ähnlichen Krisen in den 1970er Jahren mit einer konsequenten Stabilitätspolitik den Preisauftrieb deutlich stärker und nachhaltiger bekämpfen als die meisten anderen Länder. Ein Erfolg, zu dem auch ihr hoher Grad der Unabhängigkeit von der Politik beitrug. Ob dies der EZB gelingt, bleibt abzuwarten. Anfang 2025 liegt die Inflationsrate im Euroraum und in Deutschland trotz einer tiefgreifenden Konjunkturschwäche mit 2, 5% noch immer über dem Inflationsziel von 2%. |
| Abstract: | The abolition of the D-Mark and the introduction of the Euro were associated with hopes but also fears that the new currency might not be as stable as the D-Mark. The D-Mark was one of the two currencies worldwide with the lowest inflation rates for over 50 years. This article compares the development of prices and purchasing power in Germany over two equally long periods before and after the introduction of the Euro in 1999. The Euro even had lower average inflation rates measured in terms of consumer prices in Germany than the D-Mark. Between 1999 and 2020, there was a more favorable inflation environment worldwide, which also made it easier for the European Central Bank (ECB) to pursue its price stability objective. The first serious challenge for the ECB arose since 2021, when the inflation rate sharply rose above 10% due to negative supply shocks and a strong fiscal expansion. In similar crises in the 1970s, the Deutsche Bundesbank was able to combat price increases much more strongly and sustainably than most other countries. The independence of Deutsche Bundesbank from politics contributed largely to its success. Whether the ECB will succeed in lowering inflation to its target level of 2% over the medium term remains to be seen. At the beginning of 2025, with 2.5 % the inflation rate in the Euro area and Germany is still above the inflation target of 2% despite a sustained economic weakness of the Euro area economies. |
| Keywords: | D-Mark, Euro, Inflation, Kaufkraft, Geldpolitik |
| JEL: | E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hawdps:315754 |
| By: | Ingman, Gustav (Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | Recently, there has been increasing research interest in the historical composition of central bank reserves. However, studies in this area is hindered by a lack of data, as such data spanning multiple centuries is only available for a small number of countries. This paper presents an empirical analysis of the development of the Swedish Riksbank’s foreign exchange (FX) reserves from 1823 to 2023. It introduces two new datasets: a monthly time series with the composition of the FX reserve’s components from 1908 to 2023, and an annual dataset providing the distribution of foreign currencies within the FX reserve from 1823 to 2023. This paper offers new insights into the long-run evolution of the central bank reserves of Sweden, contributing to the broader understanding of the trajectory of historical foreign currency reserves. It is published together with an appendix file containing the data. |
| Keywords: | Central; bank; balance; sheet;; Reserve; currencies;; Currency; composition |
| JEL: | E58 F31 N23 N24 |
| Date: | 2025–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0449 |
| By: | GIRARDI, Daniele; GRAU, Nicolas; VENEZIANI, Roberto; YOSHIHARA, Naoki |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a novel axiomatic analysis of exploitation as the unequal exchange of labour, derives an empirical exploitation index at the individual level, and estimates its distribution in the US in 1975-2022. We show that, among possible definitions of exploitation, only one satisfies a small set of formally weak and normatively salient axioms. From this definition, we derive an individual-level exploitation intensity index which provides a new measure of well-being and inequality, complementary to existing ones and able to jointly take into account the distributions of income and work time. In US data, exploitation intensity provides additional information compared with standard income inequality measures and predicts important well-being and political outcomes. Inequality in exploitation increased more than income inequality since 1975. |
| JEL: | D63 D5 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hituec:765 |
| By: | Cowell, Frank; Van de Gaer, Dirk |
| Abstract: | Using a simple model of family decision making we examine the processes by which the wealth distribution changes over the generations, focusing in particular on the division of fortunes through inheritance and the union of fortunes through marriage. We show that the equilibrium wealth distribution exists under standard assumptions and has a Pareto tail that can be characterized in a simple way for a variety of inheritance rules and marriage patterns. The shape of the distribution is principally determined by the size distribution of families. We show how changes in fertility, inheritance rules and inheritance taxation affect long-run inequality. |
| Keywords: | inheritance; inheritance taxation; wealth distribution |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127769 |
| By: | Tomaz Cajner; Carol Corrado; Arthur B. Kennickell |
| Abstract: | This paper was written for the academic conference held in celebration of the 100th anniversary of the Division of Research and Statistics (R&S) of the Federal Reserve Board. The work of the Federal Reserve turns strongly on empirical efforts to understand the structure and state of the economy, and R&S can be thought of as operating a large factory for discovering and developing data and analytical methods to provide evidence relevant to the mission of the Board. This paper, as signaled by its title, illustrates how the measurement research component of the R&S factory often looks far beyond current conventions to meet the needs of the Board—and has done so since its earliest days. It would take a far longer paper to provide a complete history and evolution of measurement activities in R&S; here, we provide an indicative review focusing on selected areas from which, we believe, it is easy to conclude that R&S has been—and likely will continue to be—an important innovator in economic measurement. |
| Keywords: | Data collection methods and estimation strategies; Business cycles, productivity, and price measurement; Financial accounts and financial data; the Survey of Consumer Finances; Blended data |
| JEL: | C89 E01 E30 |
| Date: | 2025–03–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2025-19 |
| By: | Gustafsson Kurki, Pär (Swedish Defence Research Agency - FOI) |
| Abstract: | This is a response to Kathryn Hendley and Peter Murrell’s criticism of “The emergence of the rule of law in Russia”, Global Crime, Vol.14, No.1, 2013. In that paper, I challenge the main claim in Kathryn Hendley, Peter Murrell, and Randi Ryterman’s “Law, Relationships, and Private Enforcement: Transactional Strategies of Russian Enterprises” in Europe-Asia Studies, Vol.52, No.4, 2000. Hendley, Murrell, and Ryterman claim that economic actors in Russia relied on the law and commercial courts because the latter were relatively effective. I argue that, in the late 1990s, economic actors trusted the commercial courts because they believed that they could influence the judicial outcome with bribes. In their reply, Hendley and Murrell (2014) conclude that Gustafsson (2013) cannot teach us anything about Russia or about their own work. In this paper: I defend my assessment of the commercial courts and discuss the influence of widespread corruption in the Russia of the 1990s. I also argue that their favourable view of Russian law and legal institutions is based on a sample that is marked by a serious error. This means that their conclusion about my work is an opinion rather than a verified fact. |
| Date: | 2025–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:juq7g_v1 |
| By: | Giommoni, Tommaso (University of Amsterdam); Tabellini, Marco (Harvard Business School); Loumeau, Gabriel (VU university Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | We study the fiscal determinants of the French Revolution, exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in the salt tax - a large source of royal revenues and one of the most extractive forms of taxation of the Ancien Régime. Implementing a Regression Discontinuity design (RDD), we find that parts of France subject to a higher salt tax experienced more revolts against the monarchy between 1750 and 1789. These effects already appear in the 1760s, but become stronger over time and peak in the 1780s. Combining the RD model with variation in local weather conditions during the 1780s, we document that droughts amplify the effects of the salt tax on revolts by increasing wheat prices and activating latent discontent. Then, we connect the discontent generated by the salt tax to the French Revolution. First, we provide evidence that riots spread more quickly in high tax areas. Second, we show that areas burdened by a higher salt tax report more complaints against the salt tax in the list of grievances collected by the king in the spring of 1789. Third, we document that legislators representing areas with a higher salt tax are more likely to demand the end of the monarchy and to support the death penalty for the king. |
| Keywords: | extractive taxation, regime change, French Revolution, state capacity |
| JEL: | D74 H20 H31 O23 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17825 |
| By: | Michelle R. Garfinkel; Constantinos Syropoulos |
| Abstract: | We provide a selective overview of the literature on the linkages between interstate conflict and international trade, paying special attention to how trade openness (i) affects arming incentives, (ii) the channels through which its effects travel, and (iii) its consequences for the emergence of war (or peace) as an equilibrium outcome. We also discuss how restrictive trade policies may interact with national security concerns and what they imply for welfare. |
| Keywords: | gains from trade, national security, arming, war and peace. |
| JEL: | C78 D30 D70 D74 F10 F51 F60 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11801 |
| By: | Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana |
| Abstract: | This note provides extensive evidence on the persistence properties of real GDP in 17 European countries and in the US over the period 1960-2023 using a fractional integration framework. The analysis suggests that in all cases shocks have permanent effects on the level of real GDP. This is consistent with the idea that it is the growth rate of output which is stationary and fluctuates around a long-run equilibrium level. Further, the degree of persistence varies across countries, with the US, Greece and Spain exhibiting the highest one and Sweden and Ireland the lowest. Policy makers should take such properties into account when formulating appropriate stabilisation policies. |
| Keywords: | real GDP, time series, persistence, fractional integration. |
| JEL: | C22 E23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11764 |
| By: | Ganev, Georgy |
| Abstract: | No, the original barter theory of the origins of money (“the barter story” for short) has not been rejected. What has been rejected is a narrowly specific, and apparently parentless, version of the barter story based on the standard neoclassical synthesis modelling assumptions of homo œconomicus and fully-fledged market economies. As in all other myths, the myth of the rejection of the barter story contains a grain of truth, namely, that the actually lived human communities are much more complex and nuanced than assumed by the standard neoclassical synthesis economics rendition of the story. These grains of truth, as valuable and helpful as they can be for the improvement of economics, cannot change the conclusion that the original barter story remains standing. |
| Keywords: | barter; money; origins of money |
| JEL: | A12 B15 B29 E49 N10 |
| Date: | 2025–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124237 |
| By: | Tommaso Giommoni; Gabriel Loumeau; Marco Tabellini; Gabriel Loumeau |
| Abstract: | We study the fiscal determinants of the French Revolution, exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in the salt tax - a large source of royal revenues and one of the most extractive forms of taxation of the Ancien Régime. Implementing a Regression Discontinuity design (RDD), we find that parts of France subject to a higher salt tax experienced more revolts against the monarchy between 1750 and 1789. These effects already appear in the 1760s, but become stronger over time and peak in the 1780s. Combining the RD model with variation in local weather conditions during the 1780s, we document that droughts amplify the effects of the salt tax on revolts by increasing wheat prices and activating latent discontent. Then, we connect the discontent generated by the salt tax to the French Revolution. First, we provide evidence that riots spread across space through a process of contagion that is stronger in high tax areas. Second, we show that areas burdened by a higher salt tax report more complaints against the salt tax in the list of grievances collected by the king in the spring of 1789. Third, we document that legislators representing areas with a higher salt tax are more likely to demand the end of the monarchy and to support the death penalty for the king. |
| Keywords: | extractive taxation, regime change, French Revolution, state capacity. |
| JEL: | D74 H20 H31 O23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11798 |
| By: | Heiss, Andrew (Georgia State University) |
| Abstract: | This essay provides an overview of statistical methods in public policy, focused primarily on the United States. I trace the historical development of quantitative approaches in policy research, from early ad hoc applications through the 19th and early 20th centuries, to the full institutionalization of statistical analysis in federal, state, local, and nonprofit agencies by the late 20th century. I then outline three core methodological approaches to policy-centered statistical research across social science disciplines: description, explanation, and prediction, framing each in terms of the focus of the analysis. In descriptive work, researchers explore *what exists* and examine any variable of interest to understand their different distributions and relationships. In explanatory work, researchers ask *why does it exist* and *how can it be influenced*. The focus of the analysis is on explanatory variables (X) to either (1) accurately estimate their relationship with an outcome variable (Y), or (2) causally attribute the effect of specific explanatory variables on outcomes. In predictive work, researchers as *what will happen next* and focus on the outcome variable (Y) and on generating accurate forecasts, classifications, and predictions from new data. For each approach, I examine key techniques, their applications in policy contexts, and important methodological considerations. I then consider critical perspectives on quantitative policy analysis framed around issues related to a three-part "data imperative" where governments are driven to count, gather, and learn from data. Each of these imperatives entail substantial issues related to privacy, accountability, democratic participation, and epistemic inequalities—issues at odds with public sector values of transparency and openness. I conclude by identifying some emerging trends in public sector-focused data science, inclusive ethical guidelines, open research practices, and future directions for the field. |
| Date: | 2025–03–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:cwymb_v1 |
| By: | Sulin Sardoschau (Humboldt University Berlin); Annali Casanueva-Artis (Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Freedom of speech is central to democracy, but protests that amplify extremist views expose a critical trade-off between civil liberties and public safety. This paper investigates how right-wing demonstrations affect the incidence of hate crimes, focusing on Germany’s largest far-right movement since World War II. Leveraging a difference-in-differences framework with instrumental variable and event-study approaches, we find that a 20% increase in local protest attendance nearly doubles hate crime occurrences. We explore three potential mechanisms—signaling, agitation, and coordination—by examining protest dynamics, spatial diffusion, media influence, counter-mobilization, and crime characteristics. Our analysis reveals that large protests primarily act as signals of broad xenophobic support, legitimizing extremist violence. This signaling effect propagates through right-wing social media networks and is intensified by local newspaper coverage and Twitter discussions. Consequently, large protests shift local equilibria, resulting in sustained higher levels of violence primarily perpetrated by repeat offenders. Notably, these protests trigger resistance predominantly online, rather than physical counter-protests. |
| Keywords: | protest, signal, hate crime, refugees, right-wing |
| JEL: | D74 J15 D83 Z10 D72 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2508 |
| By: | Martins, Guilherme Klein; Carvalho, Laura |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the long-term effects of fiscal austerity on democratic institutions. While previous studies have established a link between economic crises, fiscal consolidations, and short-term electoral outcomes, our analysis extends this discussion by examining how austerity-induced economic insecurity undermines key dimensions of democracy over time. Using a comprehensive dataset of narrative fiscal shocks across 17 OECD economies (1978–2020) and 14 Latin American and Caribbean economies (1989–2020), we employ a semi-parametric estimation method to identify the causal impact of fiscal austerity on democratic backsliding. Our findings indicate that contractionary fiscal policies weaken institutional checks, reduce freedom of expression, and erode electoral integrity. These effects persist beyond immediate electoral cycles, leading to broader democratic erosion. The study highlights the importance of policy choices in shaping political institutions and suggests that alternative macroeconomic strategies, such as countercyclical fiscal policies and targeted social protection, may help mitigate the risks associated with austerity while preserving democratic governance. |
| Date: | 2025–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2vf5a_v1 |
| By: | Xue, Melanie; Zhang, Boxiao |
| Abstract: | We study the short- and long-term effects of affirmative action policies in the context of China. During imperial China, official positions were awarded to the most academically talented individuals through a multi-stage examination process administered by the central government. In 1712, a reform was implemented to address disparities in exam performance, aiming to equalize acceptance rates across provinces and increase representation from underrepresented regions. Using a unique dataset, we analyze career outcomes and find that more candidates from underrepresented provinces secured positions without compromising their performance after the reform. However, sub-provincial units showed different trends. Although the reform ended in 1905, the gap between underrepresented provinces and others widened again, but some effects of the reform remained. Moreover, the intervention had spillover effects, extending its impact to secondary education. |
| Keywords: | affirmative action; education; inequality; China |
| JEL: | H75 I28 J71 N40 |
| Date: | 2025–04–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:128023 |
| By: | Anna Matysiak (University of Warsaw); Daniele Vignoli (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Universita' di Firenze) |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses whether women's employment in the 21st century remains a barrier to family formation, as it was in the 1980s and 1990s, or—similar to men's—it has become a prerequisite for childbearing. We address this question through a systematic quantitative review (meta-analysis) of empirical studies conducted in Europe, North America and Australia. We selected 94 studies published between 1990-2023 (N=572 effect sizes). Our analysis uncovers a fundamental shift in the relationship between women's employment and fertility. What was once a strongly negative association has become statistically insignificant in the 2000s and 2010s—and even turned positive in the Nordic countries and parts of Western Europe (France, Belgium, and the Netherlands). This shift is evident both among childless women and mothers and has occurred across all analyzed country clusters, except in the German/Southern European group, where the relationship has remained negative. These findings challenge longstanding assumptions about work-family trade-offs and suggest a reconfiguration of the economic and social conditions underpinning fertility decisions in contemporary high-income societies. The paper calls for a reconceptualization of the employment-fertility relationship and development of a new theoretical framework that better captures these evolving dynamics in contemporary high-income societies. |
| Keywords: | Women's employment; Fertility; High-income countries; Meta-analysis |
| JEL: | J13 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fir:econom:wp2025_02 |
| By: | Likavčan, Lukáš; Frank, Adam |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to explore an astrobiological genealogy of the concept of the Planetary vividly discussed in contemporary environmental humanities and social sciences, and to offer a framework for an articulation of political-economic models based on this concept. Following Bentley Allan, we propose to treat the Planetary as an example of scientific cosmology, thus emphasizing how astrobiology supports a much broader philo- sophical worldview that shines a new light on persistent problems related to organizing human inhabitation of the Earth. Starting with the analysis and speculative elaboration on Allan’s theory of cosmological shifts in international orders during Western modernity, we associate the Anthropocene discourse as an inaugurating moment in the consolida- tion of the Planetary’s scientific cosmology, grounded in the astrobiology’s metabolic per- spective on complex adaptive systems. The narrative of the paper offers a genealogy of this perspective, including the most recent research about information metabolisms and biosphere-technosphere coupling in astrobiology, which paves the way for the explanation of the economy itself as a metabolic entity. After the review of adjacent philosophical po- sitions associated with ecological economics and the theory of complex adaptive systems, the paper concludes with remarks on the Planetary as a cornerstone of an international order that yields economic imperatives governed by a generic view of the Earth as a mem- ber of a potentially large and diverse category of habitable planets. |
| Date: | 2025–04–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:4963w_v1 |
| By: | Gilles Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | This article presents a fresh perspective on logistics by exploring its artistic dimensions and revealing an often-overlooked aesthetic facet. It examines supply chains as a choreography of flows, where each movement of goods contributes to a larger symphony. This artistic lens invites us to perceive logistics not merely as a collection of functional processes but as a testament to human ingenuity and technological advancement. The author underscores the significance of a visual approach to understanding flows, where every journey narrates a story of connection and exchange. Land, sea, and air routes become lines on a vast canvas, symbolizing the intricate web of human relationships across the globe. Similarly, sprawling warehouses, typically viewed as purely utilitarian spaces, are reimagined as modern cathedrals, dedicated to the logistical pursuit of efficiency. This article advocates for recognizing logistics as an art form, highlighting its profound role in shaping our daily lives. By celebrating its aesthetic dimension, it calls for a more critical and responsible engagement with consumer practices, while also addressing pressing contemporary challenges, such as the environmental and social consequences of overconsumption. |
| Keywords: | Art, Choreography, Flow, Logistics, Metaphor, Visual language, Warehouse |
| Date: | 2025–03–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04995519 |
| By: | Xu, Tao Louie; Zhu, Weiwei |
| Abstract: | This research identifies the causality between entrepreneurial behaviour and informal institutions of social trust within the context of China’s development. Revisiting the Polanyi-Schumpeter theoretical framework, entrepreneurship embedded in social relations interlinked by trust is a dynamo of sustainable socioeconomic progress. The institutionalised trust, however, was not clarified. With micro-individual data from the Chinese General Social Survey 2011–2021, our research employs the instrumental variable approach rooted in historical rice farming to tackle endogeneity. The results demonstrate that social trust elevates entrepreneurial engagement by 32.65 and 10.37 percentage points in self-employment and business incorporation, respectively. Increased trust paradoxically hampers self-employment in the central due to insular networks and structural disparities. The findings uncover the nuanced role of social trust in facilitating and constraining entrepreneurship with contextually regional determinants. The research contributes to knowledge and evidence of institutional endowments that mediate entrepreneurial agency and argues for synchronising formal and informal institutions in development. |
| Date: | 2025–03–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:nka6s_v3 |
| By: | Eichhorst, Werner (IZA); Marx, Paul (University of Bonn) |
| Abstract: | Germany has long been portrayed as the best real-world example of an export-oriented economic model associated with a dualized labor market and welfare state. The success of this export-centered model over the last decades has typically been ascribed to competitiveness due to wage restraint and widening wage dispersion in line with declining collective bargaining coverage. This paper starts from this widely shared perception, but sheds a new light on the dynamics and structures of employment in Germany after a long boom period for the late 2000s to the most recent period. The paper argues that much of this change is rather market driven than to be explained by institutional reforms. Employment growth was driven by service sector expansion while wage dispersion and non-standard work stagnated and declined somewhat, reducing the extent of these forms of dualisms in the labor market. Following a cyclical argument about political decision-making, we only saw limited re-regulatory activity. However, the favourable economic climate has changed more recently. |
| Keywords: | Germany, non-standard employment, dual labor markets, labor market reforms, political economy |
| JEL: | J21 J24 J31 J38 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17862 |
| By: | Petry, Johannes |
| Abstract: | Commodities are crucial for understanding China’s economic rise but financial aspects of commodity markets are often neglected in existing debates. However, commodity prices are increasingly determined through trading in futures markets. Historically, most commodity benchmarks were traded on futures exchanges in New York, Chicago and London (infrastructure), dominated by Anglo-American financial institutions (investor), USD-denominated (currency), and supervised by US/UK regulators (regulatory). The article develops the concept of (commodity) pricing power as resulting from a combination of these different sources of power which further solidifies US financial hegemony, while putting China into a subordinate position. It thus provides a novel perspective for understanding the politics of commodities, global finance and China’s role therein. Based on policy documents, financial data and 200 expert interviews, the paper explores China’s efforts for establishing its own commodity benchmarks, tracing how (a lack of) commodity pricing power emerged as a problem for Chinese authorities and was subsequently pursued as a national development strategy for gaining more autonomy from US-dominated markets. While we often perceive China as a powerful actor, the paper illustrates how the market-based, financialised setup of international economic affairs can fundamentally constrain China’s global influence, even placing it into a position of profound vulnerability. |
| Date: | 2025–04–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9nwga_v1 |
| By: | Ghosh Roy, Kaustav Mr. (University of Delhi) |
| Abstract: | Borderlands are geographic places demarcated and defined by the state designed boundaries and the borderlands of Indo-Bangladesh region have been a subject to scarce politico-economic investments stemming from regional complications including security concerns. As the situation shifted towards favorable, these arenas turned into intense zone for emerging geopolitical strategy making and state-building. The Indian state with its development actions and governance functions, are proliferating across the Indo-Bangladesh borderlands in India. Owing to the phenomenon, this article intends to intertwine the actor-oriented ‘anthropology of borderlands’ with the politico-legal framework of ‘governance and development’; to locate the impact of ‘development and local governance initiatives’ of the state agencies and its functionaries on the people residing at the praxis. It also highlights the need for focusing on different political economic contexts for development and observe how people on the subject of development – are responding or reacting, sidestepping or resisting against a structural factor like the borderland that has acted on them; whereas, the state policies and its narrative of ‘Development’ have turned contradictory to the aspiration of the population at the praxis that is synergetic in terms of localized differences in demography and socio-political history. |
| Date: | 2025–04–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:awre9_v1 |
| By: | Marius Kleinheyer; Gunther Schnabl |
| Abstract: | Argentina has been characterised for a long time by inflation, recession, poverty and failed reforms. We analyse the reforms of Javier Milei with the help of the Austrian School of Economics, German ordoliberalism and the theory of financial repression. It is shown that Milei’s reforms have achieved with expenditure cuts and decisive deregulation an impressing consolidation of the public budget, a decline of inflation as well as – with a lag – growth and a falling poverty rate. His reforms may become a blueprint for other countries such as Germany. |
| Keywords: | Argentina, Milei, inflation, reforms, deregulation, growth |
| JEL: | B53 E58 P11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11752 |
| By: | Sasaki, Hiroaki; Shimizu, Kenji; Ishihara, Yousuke |
| Abstract: | This study critically reviews Afonso (2024), who proposes a model of economic growth that considers automation capital, traditional capital, skilled labor, and unskilled labor. In his definition of a balanced growth path, the progress of automation makes both the ratio of skilled labor to all labor and the skill premium asymptotically approach zero in the long run. Eventually, the economic growth rate becomes zero, which contradicts his conclusion. In contrast, if we correct the definition of the balanced growth path, the ratio of skilled labor to all labor asymptotically approaches unity in the long run, and the skill premium diverges to infinity. In this case, the long-run growth rate of per-capita output is equal to the growth rate obtained from Jones’s (1995) semi-endogenous growth model. |
| Keywords: | automation; growth, income distribution; skill premium |
| JEL: | E24 E25 J31 O31 O41 |
| Date: | 2025–04–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124420 |
| By: | Antman, Francisca M. (University of Colorado, Boulder); Qu, Sheng (University of Colorado, Boulder); Weinberg, Bruce A. (Ohio State University); Logan, Trevon D. (Ohio State University) |
| Abstract: | We conduct a long-run evaluation of one of the oldest professional mentoring programs for underrepresented groups in economics, the American Economic Association Mentoring Program (AEAMP). The AEAMP was established to address the underrepresentation of racial/ethnic minority groups by mentoring doctoral students and new Ph.D.s in economics. We compare professional outcomes of mentees with similar individuals from the same Ph.D. cohort who did not participate in the program. While there are no differences for many outcomes, mentees are more likely to hold a tenure-track or tenured position. Our results point to the potential for mentoring programs to address persistent racial/ethnic disparities. |
| Keywords: | mentoring, underrepresented minority groups |
| JEL: | J15 I23 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17829 |
| By: | Ballbach, Eric J. |
| Abstract: | Driven by both political camps in Seoul, relations between South Korea and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have deepened significantly since their initiation in 2005. While this intensified relationship was shaped to a large extent by geopolitical developments and increasing security concerns, it also reflects the respective priorities and motives of the different South Korean administrations. With another change in administration in South Korea looming, it is important to understand these priorities, and where and why the different administrations' motivations driving the country's relations with NATO intersect and diverge. |
| Keywords: | North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Ban Ki-moon, Yoon Suk-yeol, Moon Jae-in, Republic of Korea (ROK), inter-Korea relations, Russia's war against Ukraine, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), U.S.-China conflict |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:315530 |
| By: | Pait, Felipe (Universidade de São Paulo); Pait, Heloisa |
| Abstract: | Nesse artigo fazemos uma introdução aos trabalhos do economista Paul Krugman, apresentando suas contribuições à ciência e seus artigos de divulgação que são objetos de polêmicas. Descrevemos sua carreiras como professor americano, e suas contribuições para a arte da formalização em ciências sociais, as investigações em localização da economia que conduziram ao prêmio Nobel. Discutimos também as contribuições de Krugman para o entendimento de bolhas e armadilhas econômicas, e para teorias do desenvolvimento, de particular interesse para o Brasil. O artigo foi escrito como introdução explicativa para uma coletânea de artigos a ser publicada em forma de livro. Infelizmente a editora não pode levar a cabo o projeto, por motivos financeiros. O texto fica aqui disponível como preprint, sem infringir direitos autorais. |
| Date: | 2025–04–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9uhbq_v1 |
| By: | Berman, Yonatan (King's College London); Hovland, Tora (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of austerity measures implemented by the UK government after 2010 on life expectancy and mortality. We combine administrative data sources to create a panel dataset spanning from 2002 to 2019. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we estimate the effect of cuts to welfare benefits and changes in health expenditure on life expectancy and mortality rates. Our findings indicate that these austerity measures reduced life expectancy by 2.5 to 5 months by 2019. Women were nearly twice as affected as men. The primary driver of this trend is cuts to welfare benefits, although healthcare spending changes have a larger effect per pound spent. The results suggest that austerity policies caused a three-year setback in life expectancy progress between 2010 and 2019. This is equivalent to about 190, 000 excess deaths, or 3 percent of all deaths. Taking into account the years of life lost, we conclude that the costs of austerity significantly exceeded the benefits derived from reduced public expenditure. |
| Keywords: | public health, public economics, political economy, austerity, welfare programs |
| JEL: | H53 I18 I38 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17853 |
| By: | Goldstein, Daniel A. N. (University of Oslo); Schumock, Collin Thomas |
| Abstract: | Political executives often adhere to informal traditions established by their predecessors. Yet, without legal backing, elites have incentives to violate norms for political gain. Under what conditions do constraining executive norms persist and when are they abandoned? We address this question by using an infinite horizon formal model to analyze the maintenance of executive norms. We identify intra-party accountability and variation in patience among actors within the same party as significant for norm maintenance. We also detail how expectations about the expected behavior of out-of-power parties shape the willingness to violate norms while in office. The insights from the model enable us to classify a number of executive norms according to their fragility and to examine the trajectory of one norm in-depth: the two-term tradition of the American presidency. Our findings shed light on how informal institutions regulate executive behavior and advance our understanding of institutional stability and erosion. |
| Date: | 2025–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9dv4u_v2 |
| By: | Lisa Scheckenhofer; Feodora A. Teti; Joschka Wanner; Feodora Teti; Feodora Teti |
| Abstract: | The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to unprecedented sanctions aimed at denying Russia access to critical technologies essential for sustaining its war efforts. This paper examines whether trade sanctions targeting military goods were undermined by evasion, specifically through transshipment through Russia-friendly countries. We find that Russia-friendly countries are 20 pp more likely to export military goods to Russia relative to neutral countries after the war began, while exports of military goods from Western allies to these countries also increased. Our results show that weak enforcement significantly undermines the effectiveness of sanctions. |
| Keywords: | trade sanctions, sanction evasion, military goods trade |
| JEL: | F14 F51 K42 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11743 |
| By: | Millimet, Daniel L. (Southern Methodist University); Whitacre, Travis (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | Geographic disparities in mortality rates in the US are pronounced and growing. The Black-White mortality gap is volatile but persistent, while the Rich-Poor mortality gap is increasing dramatically. While the causes of these inequalities are not understood, recent attention has focused on the role of place-specific factors. Here, we explore the importance of politics as a place-specific factor contributing to spatial inequality in mortality. Specifically, we test for the existence of partisan mortality cycles using panel data on counties from 1968-2016 and information on the political ideology of state and federal political officials. We confirm the existence of partisan mortality cycles, finding lower mortality in counties governed by more liberal political regimes. Several sources of heterogeneity are also uncovered. While additional research is needed, the analysis here suggests that analyses of spatial, racial, and income differences in mortality ought to start with the political system. |
| Keywords: | geographic disparities, ideology, mortality, political cycles |
| JEL: | I10 I18 J10 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17824 |