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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Rossier, Thierry; Lunding, Jacob Aagaard |
| Abstract: | In this article we delve into the elites’ evolving forms of power to study the relationship between social change and capital accumulation. Drawing on Pierre Bourdieu’s notion of the field of power and relying on the identification of the field’s effective agents in Switzerland, we investigate the changing relations among the most important forms of capital. We use prosopographical data spanning six historical periods from 1910 to 2015 and thanks to multiple correspondence analysis we uncover the changing structure of the field of power. We show the dominance of economic and organisational network powers throughout history. While both forms of power opposed before the Second World War, they could be accumulated together between the 1950s and the 1980s but opposed again in the recent period. The article contributes to ‘big picture’ sociology, offering historical accounts of broad social trends and provides evidence of a recent return to past inequality logics. |
| Keywords: | Switzerland; capital; elites; field of power; history; social change |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2025–03–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127653 |
| By: | Wang Xi ("Collegel of Creative Art in Universiti Teknologi MARA, 40000, Shah Alam, Selangor, Malaysia " Author-2-Name: Associate Professor Du Hai Tao Author-2-Workplace-Name: "Academy of Fine Arts of Qufu Normal University, 276826, Ri Zhao, Shandong, China " Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | "Objective - This article examines the relationship between art history writing and the theory of temporal hierarchy, specifically the application of historical time in art historical research. The article draws on several representative viewpoints of historical time, such as the theory of historical cycles, the diversity of historical time, the temporalization of history, and the narrative of historical time. Methodology/Technique - Combining the method of historical hermeneutics, this analysis examines the significance of the temporal hierarchy of history for the development of art history writing. The study explores the relationship and contemporary significance between art, history, and time perspectives from the perspectives of experiential space and expectancy. It explains how these concepts influence the writing of global art history. Findings - This study will start with the three main concepts of time view in art history: cyclical view, linear development view, and art history periodization, attempting to discover the three-layer structure of ""art history consciousness time view, "" exploring the construction process of art history view from the perspective of time, exploring and excavating people's potential cognitive consciousness, and explaining the relationship between history and time from a new perspective of relevance, further elaborating on the latest trend of art history writing under the guidance of the theory of time hierarchy. Through in-depth analysis of artistic works, the profound influence of time hierarchy on the evolution of art schools and artists' creative practices has been revealed. The continuity and correlation of art history are more critical than systematicity and wholeness. Originality - Art history should be regarded as a part of the broader history of art, prompting us to pay closer attention to the interaction between art and society, as well as the emergence and development of artworks within their social and cultural context, when studying. The theory of time hierarchy offers a new perspective on writing art history by analyzing different temporal levels and exploring the connotations, values, and relationships between artworks and history, culture, and society profoundly. Type of Paper - Empirical/ Review" |
| Keywords: | Time Hierarchy Theory, Historical Time, Art History Writing, Historical Time Perspective, Art History Periodization |
| JEL: | B1 B19 |
| Date: | 2025–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jmmr347 |
| By: | Gerlach, Stefan; Stuart, Rebecca |
| Abstract: | We argue that measurement error in historical price data has led researchers to erroneously believe that there was little persistence of inflation during the 19th century. Using a statistical technique that accounts for these errors, we estimate the persistence of (a) US inflation and (b) inflation in 14 other economies over the period 1842-1913. Our results indicate that persistence approximately doubles when we use this technique. |
| Keywords: | Inflation persistence, gold standard, measurement errors, instrumental variables |
| JEL: | E31 F40 N10 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:315743 |
| By: | Sahasrabuddhe, Aditi; Seddon, Jack |
| Abstract: | Recent crises have cast doubt on the legitimacy of technocratic power, yet its role in global economic governance remains poorly understood. Revisiting the collapse of Bretton Woods, we propose a dynamic theory of global monetary governance to explain how expanding central bank discretion can destabilize systems. While most studies attribute the postwar system's failure to geopolitical struggles, institutional weaknesses, or shifting economic ideas, they overlook the policies designed to manage and stabilize it. Drawing on historical institutionalism, we show how coordination tensions between rule-bound and discretionary policymakers-and the mutually reinforcing adaptation risks they faced-produced responses that appeared stabilizing in the short term but ultimately eroded long-run stability. New archival evidence from the IMF, BIS, and OECD reveals how tools like the London Gold Pool and currency swap lines extended central bank power, concealed macroeconomic imbalances, and crowded out political momentum for structural reform. As technocratic authority grew misaligned with political support and functional economic adjustment, it became a liability. This challenges the dominant view that technocratic actors are inherently superior in managing global economic policy |
| Keywords: | Bretton Woods, London Gold Pool, monetary history, monetary governance, historical institutionalism |
| JEL: | E42 E58 F33 N10 N14 N20 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:315744 |
| By: | Chiswick, Barry R.; Robinson, RaeAnn H. |
| Abstract: | This paper is concerned with analyzing the occupational attainment of American Jewish men compared to other free men in the mid-19th century to help fill a gap in the literature on Jewish achievement. It does this by using the full count (100 percent) microdata file from the 1850 Census of Population, the first census to ask the occupation of free men. Independent lists of surnames are used to identify men with a higher probability of being Jewish. These men were more likely than others to be managers, salesmen, and craft workers, and were less likely to be farmers and laborers. The Jewish men have a higher occupational income score on average. In the multiple regression analysis, it is found that among Jewish and other free men occupational income scores increase with age (up to about age 43 for all men), literacy, being married, having fewer children, being native born, living in the South, and living in an urban area. Even after controlling for these variables that impact the occupational income score, Jews have a significantly higher score, which is the equivalent of about the size of the positive effect of being married. Similar patterns are found using the Duncan Socioeconomic Index. This higher occupational status is consistent with patterns found elsewhere for American Jews for the 18th century and throughout the 20th century. |
| Keywords: | Jews, Occupational Status, Occupational Income Score, Duncan Socioeconomic Index, 1850 Census of Population |
| JEL: | N31 J62 J15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1602 |
| By: | Mathias Bühler; Navid Sabet |
| Abstract: | Who drives social change—the people or activist elites? While progressive reforms are often championed by elites, their preferences may diverge from those of the broader group they aim to represent, producing unintended political consequences. We study this dynamic in the context of female suffrage in Germany, a reform driven by activist elites but ultimately lacking support from the broader female electorate. Using newly digitized voting data from Munich, linked to individual socioeconomic records, we identify the political preferences of elite and non-elite women. We exploit variation in elite composition based on pre-franchise socioeconomic characteristics, as well as variation in World War I widowhood, which increased the observability of non-elite women in household records. Precincts with more elite women supported the social-liberal party that had long advocated women’s rights, while those with greater non-elite female presence shifted toward nationalist parties promoting traditional gender norms. This divergence persists across multiple elections and is not explained by warrelated shocks or male voting behavior. Our findings suggest that formal inclusion alone may be insufficient to shift entrenched social and political hierarchies. |
| Keywords: | suffrage, elite |
| JEL: | N40 D70 P40 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11771 |
| By: | Tetsuji OKAZAKI; Toshihiro Okubo; Eric Strobl |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of life insurance buffering negative income shocks on schooling. We focus on middle school grade promotion rates under earthquake disasters in early 20th century Japan. We constructed a dataset on grade promotions by gender, life insurance claims, and information on the deadliness of earthquakes, at the prefecture-level. The results of mediation analyses indicate that life insurance significantly buffered the negative impact of earthquakes on the promotion of boys to higher grades, while for girls the buffering effect of life insurance was mostly small and insignificant, which is consistent with the theoretical prediction. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnn:wpaper:25-010e |
| By: | Gardner, Leigh; Husain, Tehreem |
| Abstract: | In 1924, John Maynard Keynes complained about the fact that Southern Rhodesia, which he described as “a place somewhere in the middle of Africa”, was able to raise loans on the London market on the same terms as a large English borough. Existing literature on the “empire effect” has contended that investors did not discriminate between the bond issues of different colonies, either because they adopted similar economic and financial policies or because they were considered to be subsidiary governments to metropolitan states. However, archival records suggest that this was not the case and that African bonds were particularly unpopular. Contemporaries stressed that maintaining low borrowing costs for African colonies required considerable behind the scenes interventions by the Crown Agents using reserve funds they held on behalf of other colonies. This paper presents preliminary data on the financial connections between colonies created by this practice, which it calls the “sinews” of empire, and examines the implications for debates about imperialism and financial globalisation. |
| Keywords: | sovereign debt; empire; Africa; colonialism |
| JEL: | H00 G10 |
| Date: | 2025–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127544 |
| By: | Pengl, Yannick I.; Muller-Crepon, Carl; Valli, Roberto; Cederman, Lars-Erik; Girardin, Luc |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the gradual expansion of the European railway network to investigate how this key technological driver of modernization affected ethnic separatism between 1816 and 1945. Combining new historical data on ethnic settlement areas, conflict, and railway construction, we test how railroads affected separatist conflict and successful secession as well as independence claims among peripheral ethnic groups. Difference-in-differences, event study, and instrumental variable models show that, on average, railway-based modernization increased separatist mobilization and secession. These effects concentrate in countries with small core groups, weak state capacity, and low levels of economic development as well as in large ethnic minority regions. Exploring causal mechanisms, we show how railway networks can facilitate mobilization by increasing the internal connectivity of ethnic regions and hamper it by boosting state reach. Overall, our findings call for a more nuanced understanding of the effects of European modernization on nation building. |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2025–03–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127734 |
| By: | Hammar, Olle |
| Abstract: | Alfani and Carballo (2023) estimate the levels of income inequality in the Aztec Empire around 1492, that is, before the Spanish conquest. Their main estimate finds that the Gini index was 50.4. They conclude that income inequality in the Aztec Empire was high even before the Spanish conquest, questioning to what extent today's high levels of economic inequality in Mexico can be explained by the Spanish conquest and extractive institutions imposed by the colonizers. First, I confirm that the main outcomes are computationally reproducible from the analysis data provided in the replication package. Second, I detect two inconsistencies with respect to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and the IV analysis, but after correcting for those I obtain qualitatively similar results. Third, I test the robustness reproducibility of the relationship between population density and per capita income through eleven different robustness tests, confirming a positive and statistically significant relationship but with large variation in the point estimates. Finally, I use these estimates as inputs for robustness measures of the main outcomes. On average, these robustness reproductions yield very similar results to those in the original paper. However, they also indicate large uncertainty about the exact estimates, for example, with Gini index estimates ranging between 38.8 and 65.6. As such, the conclusion that the level of income inequality was higher in the Aztec Empire than in modern Mexico does not appear to be a robust finding. The finding that it was more unequal than in contemporary United States, however, seems to be robust. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:221 |
| By: | Soer, Elizabeth Freda |
| Abstract: | How can we make sense of the resurgence of the far right across the world? From the re-election of Donald Trump to the flourishing of Hindu nationalism under Narendra Modi, right-wing politicians have undoubtedly grown in prominence over the last decade. There is a burgeoning literature on this topic as scholars attempt to understand whether it is a backlash against neoliberalism, a reactionary form of neoliberalism, or simply a cultural phenomenon produced by increased global connectivity. This paper contributes to the vibrant discussion by examining an ideal yet overlooked case of ethno-nationalist neoliberalism - apartheid South Africa in the 1980s. This case reveals neoliberalism's relationship to colonialism and its contribution to the perpetuation of white rule. South Africa has served as a test case for neoliberal ideas about race and economics and can thus contribute broader insights on the topic. The paper argues that the contemporary far right is not a backlash against neoliberalism, but a robust continuation of it. It draws on a vast range of archival sources from the late-apartheid period as well as the writings of prominent neoliberal thinkers to support this argument. |
| Abstract: | Wie ist das Wiedererstarken der extremen Rechten auf der ganzen Welt zu verstehen? Von der Wiederwahl Donald Trumps bis zum Aufblühen des Hindu-Nationalismus unter Narendra Modi: Rechte Politik hat im Laufe der letzten zehn Jahre zweifellos an Einfluss gewonnen. Entsprechend wächst die Anzahl der wissenschaftlichen Veröffentlichungen, die sich mit der Frage beschäftigen, ob es sich um eine Gegenreaktion auf den Neoliberalismus, eine reaktionäre Form des Neoliberalismus oder um ein aus zunehmender globaler Vernetzung resultierendes kulturelles Phänomen handelt. Dieser Aufsatz behandelt die Apartheid in Südafrika in den 1980er-Jahren und leistet damit einen Beitrag zur aktuellen Debatte. Südafrika ist ein oft übersehenes, aber ideales Beispiel für ethnonationalistischen Neoliberalismus, weil es die Beziehung des Neoliberalismus zum Kolonialismus und seinen Einfluss auf die Aufrechterhaltung der weißen Herrschaft offenbart. Es kann wegen seiner neoliberalen Vorstellungen von Rasse und Wirtschaft zu umfassenderen Erkenntnissen in diesem Zusammenhang beitragen. Der Aufsatz argumentiert, dass die heutige extreme Rechte keine Gegenreaktion auf den Neoliberalismus darstellt, sondern eine robuste Fortsetzung davon ist. Eine Vielzahl von Archivquellen aus der Zeit der späten Apartheid sowie Schriften prominenter neoliberaler Theoretiker untermauern dieses Argument. |
| Keywords: | ethno-nationalism, far right, neoliberalism, South Africa, Ethnonationalismus, Neoliberalismus, Rechtsextremismus, Südafrika |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mpifgd:315752 |
| By: | Heewon, Kyung (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Lee, Jun (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics); Kim, Sanghoon (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Upon his inauguration on January 20, 2025, as the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump issued a memorandum introducing the America First trade policy. The memo directed the secretaries of the Treasury, Commerce, State, and Homeland Security departments to conduct a comprehensive review and overhaul of US trade and economic strategies to ensure reciprocity in global trade. In the near term, the move signals a desire for the US to turn back the clock 30 years, to a time before supply chains began orbiting China. In the broader historical context, it marks the end of the post-World War II globalization regime under the World Trade Organization and marks the first fundamental shift in global trade norms in over 70 years. Going forward, the system of global trade is likely to feature elements of protectionism as well as a much-changed international division of labor, but the precise trajectory of these developments remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that South Korea must develop a national industrial and trade strategy that maximizes its opportunities in this evolving order. To that end, this report examines the details of the America First trade policy and the mandate delivered by American people to the new administration and Congress following the 2024 federal elections and outlines strategic recommendations for Korea’s future industrial and trade policies. For the full report by Kyung Heewon, Lee Jun, and Sanghoon Kim, click the download link above. |
| Keywords: | tariffs; trade; trade barriers; international trade; industrial policy; protectionism; America First; MAGA; Donald Trump; manufacturing; semiconductors; technology; South Korea; Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade; KIET |
| JEL: | F13 F51 F52 O24 |
| Date: | 2025–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:2025_001 |
| By: | Bichler, Shimshon; Nitzan, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | The start of the second millennium brought a growing sense that capitalism was becoming more ‘authoritarian’ and ‘illiberal’, with various indicators suggesting that ‘democracy’ is waning around the globe, that the protection of human and civil rights is in retreat and that the number and intensity of military conflicts is on the rise. *** This angst is now greatly amplified by the domestic and foreign policies of the new Trump administration. Having returned to office in early 2025, Trump promptly launched a highly publicized crusade against his country’s ‘deep state’, with blasé disregard for its laws and con-stitution; announced his intentions to retreat from his country’s traditional postwar role as leader and protector of the Western world; and embarked on seemingly unhinged acts against friends (Canada, Mexico, Denmark, Panama and, primarily, Ukraine) while cozying up to long-term foes (Russia). *** One possible consequence of this growing angst is a global ‘arms race’. |
| Keywords: | arms race, Donald Trump, growth, militarization |
| JEL: | O4 P1 L64 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:313786 |
| By: | Batista Jr., Paulo Nogueira; Wade, Robert H. |
| Abstract: | After almost 80 years of the IMF’s existence, the distribution of influence in key decisions is still much as it was at the organization’s founding in 1945, during the era of Western colonialism - still mostly in the hands of a small set of high-income nation. It is as though the emerging “multipolarity” of the world order had not taken place. This essay sets out the imbalance between the relative “weight” of a country (or set of countries) in the world economy and the relative weight in Fund governance. After explaining the quota system and other determinants of influence (including occupancy of positions) and the history of failed attempts to change the distribution of influence, the essay outlines several measures of incremental reform which would not challenge the US, European, and Japanese grip on institution but still improve the way it works in practice and also benefit the smaller and poorer member countries in particular. However, without more radical shifts in the distribution of influence, the answer to our title question is, probably not. |
| Keywords: | international organizations; reform of the global financial architecture; International Monetary Fund; high income countries; emerging market and developing countries |
| JEL: | F00 F02 F30 F33 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127788 |
| By: | Cooper, Luke |
| Abstract: | This article returns to Stuart Hall’s account of Thatcherism to consider the interaction between consent-based hegemonic devices and the structural compulsions that emanate from political-economic transitions. It argues that Hall’s method of articulation offers a middle position in analysing contemporary authoritarian trends, which recognises the role of structural constraints and logics, as well as the discursive construction of ideology in enabling (and inhibiting) hegemony seeking efforts. Building on existing work that has highlighted the distinction between classical neoliberal arguments regarding economic individualism and the trend towards ‘protectionist’ discourses today, where the state is cast as a protector of the in-group against threats, real and imagined, the article outlines how the method of articulation can aid us in making sense of the complexity and non-linearity of the post-neoliberal transition. This framework is then applied to the case study of the British Conservative Party’s trajectory after the 2016 Brexit referendum. |
| Keywords: | articulation; authoritarianism; neoliberalism; political-economy; Stuart Hall; REF fund |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2025–03–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124078 |
| By: | Aapo Stenhammar |
| Abstract: | While structural transformation is vital for economic development, it often counters resistance. To shed light on the tension between the political and economic effects of structural change, I study a policy that paid farmers to stop farming in 1970s Finland. Using over 290, 000 newly digitized Agricultural Census forms linked to rich register data, I find that this Field Reservation Policy led to farm closures but did not affect farmers’ income or geographical mobility. However, it had an important intergenerational effect. Children of the most affected farmers had 2.7% higher earnings and were more likely to work in office and managerial positions. Surprisingly, the positive effects on income are predominantly driven by children with lower cognitive skills. Despite the economic benefits, the policy faced a political backlash contributing to the rise of a populist rural party. I provide evidence for two separate explanations for this political reaction: identity-based backlash by offended farmers and negative externalities arising from field reservation. |
| Keywords: | structural change, intergenerational mobility, occupational choice, political populism |
| JEL: | J62 J24 O14 O25 D72 |
| Date: | 2024–02–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pst:wpaper:341 |
| By: | Adriana Kugler |
| Date: | 2025–04–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgsq:99787 |
| By: | Peter Warr; Arief Anshory Yusuf |
| Abstract: | Structural change means a long-term change in the composition of economic output: agriculture, industry, and services. First, we describe this process in the context of Thailand. Second, we analyse its causes using a simple, comparative static computable general equilibrium model of the Thai economy, operated in long-run mode. |
| Keywords: | Structural change, Thailand, Computable general equilibrium |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-20 |
| By: | Hu, Sijie |
| Abstract: | In unified growth models, the evolving nexus between population dynamics and technological change is key to achieving sustained economic growth. This paper uses genealogical records of 23, 449 males and their spouses to investigate this interplay-the intergenerational transmission of reproduction and human capital-within six Chinese lineages from 1300 to 1920. Examining the relationship between reproduction and long-run reproductive success, the empirical results reveal an optimal level of reproduction, demonstrating a strong Darwinian trade-off: high reproduction in each generation did not consistently lead to long-term reproductive success. Further analysis of the mechanisms is consistent with a Beckerian trade-off, highlighting the potential costs of excessive reproduction through contrasting outcomes in sons' quality: having more brothers exhibited little apparent impact on marriageability but may have been associated with lower human capital. Together, these findings contribute to a deeper understanding of micro-demographic dynamics in pre-modern China and the persistence of Malthusian constraints. |
| Keywords: | Reproduction, Long-run reproductive success, Child quantity-quality trade-off, Ming-Qing China |
| JEL: | I25 J13 N35 O15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1572 |
| By: | Mr. Zamid Aligishiev; Michael Ben-Gad; Joseph Pearlman |
| Abstract: | We present alternative methods for calculating and interpreting the influence of exogenous shocks on historical episodes within the context of DSGE models. We show analytically why different methods for calculating shock decompositions can generate conflicting interpretations of the same historical episodes. We illustrate this point using an extended version of Drautzburg and Uhlig’s (2015) model of the U.S. economy, focusing on the periods 1964–1966, 1979–1987, 2006–2009, 2016–2020 and 2020–2023. We argue that the best method for analyzing particular episodes is one which isolates the influence of the shocks during the period under consideration and where the initial conditions represent the system’s distance from balanced growth path at the beginning of the episode. |
| Keywords: | DSGE model; Shock Decomposition; Financial Frictions; Fiscal Policy |
| Date: | 2025–03–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/051 |
| By: | Joan Costa-Font; Anna Nicińska; Melcior Rosello-Roig; Joan Costa-i-Font |
| Abstract: | Past trauma resulting from personal life shocks, especially during periods of particular volatility such as regime transition (or regime change), can give rise to significant long-lasting effects on people’s health and well-being. We study this question by drawing on longitudinal and retrospective data to examine the effect of past exposure to major individual-level shocks (specifically hunger, persecution, dispossession, and exceptional stress) on current measures of an individual’s health and mental well-being. We study the effect of the timing of the personal shocks, alongside the additional effect of ‘institutional uncertainty’ of regime change in post-communist European countries. Our findings are as follows: First, we document evidence of the detrimental effects of shocks on a series of relevant health and well-being outcomes. Second, we show evidence of more pronounced detrimental consequences of such personal shocks experienced by individuals living in formerly communist countries (which accrue to about 8% and 10% in the case of hunger and persecution, respectively) than in non-communist countries. The effects are robust and take place in addition to the direct effects of regime change and shocks. |
| Keywords: | transition shocks, Soviet communism, later life health, health care system. |
| JEL: | I18 H75 H79 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11763 |
| By: | Fix, Blair |
| Abstract: | As billionaires dance in the halls of the second Trump administration, it’s haunting how well Plutarch’s two-thousand-year-old words describe the state of American politics. It’s a barren landscape of plutocratic insatiability. *** How did it get this way? *** One way to tell the story is to look at the battle between the ruling class and everyone else — a battle which elites are obviously winning. But another way to understand the struggle is to look at the war between factions of the ruling class — a battle that plays out largely within partisan politics. *** On this partisan front, the historical backdrop is that for forty years, Republicans have been playing a political shell game. As Jay Michaelson puts it, Republicans “appear populist … but act plutocrat”. What’s disorienting is that this shell game has worked. Although Republicans have historically governed for the benefit of the rich, they have recently rebranded themselves (successfully, it seems) as the party of the working class. *** Is this new Republican messaging sincere? Or is it gaslighting? Well, Trump’s billionaire-stacked administration is quickly answering the question for us. However, this essay is not primarily about Trump, nor is it focused on the future. Instead, it’s a journey into how the partisan politics of the past have shaped the American plutocracy of today. *** The essay consists of a deep dive into the realm of US state politics. The story will be simple and repetitive. Across states, I will measure the degree to which Republicans control each state’s legislature. Then I will observe, in a statistical sense, the policies and social outcomes that follow. That’s it. Of course, I’ll add commentary along the way. But the goal is to let the evidence speak for itself. And what leaps from the data is this: Republican control of state legislatures is systematically associated with the rich being (and becoming) richer. In short, American plutocracy seems to be a quintessentially Republican affair. *** And that’s not all. *** As we journey into the depths of US state politics, the plot will thicken. We’ll find striking partisan differences in the language used in state bills. We’ll see the many ways that Republicans help the rich and hurt workers. We’ll see the impact partisan politics have on the population as they work longer hours with less security. We’ll see the toll that Republican control takes on human welfare. And we’ll study the ways that Republicans gain power, despite enacting policies that are self-evidently bad for the majority. And we’ll reflect on the reasons that plutocracy can become self-reinforcing. *** Think of the evidence that follows as a case study in how the machinery of democracy can be used to benefit the few and harm the many. It’s a warning from the past about tactics that will no doubt be intensified by Trump and his posse of plutocrats. |
| Keywords: | capital as power, bankruptcy, crime, Democratic Party, differential accumulation, distribution, dominant capital, health, inequality, mortality, political parties, Republican Party, sabotage, states, tax, Trump, unions |
| JEL: | P1 P12 P14 D72 D6 D3 I1 H2 J5 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:313121 |
| By: | Duleep, Harriet; Dowhan, Dan; Liu, Xingfei; Regets, Mark; Gesumaria, Robert |
| Abstract: | The 1924 Immigration Act excluded immigrants from economically developing countries to the point of their near total exclusion. Forty years later, the 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act eliminated most discriminatory county-of-origin barriers. America's doors opened and immigration from economically developing countries soared. Fueling debates about the "quality" of immigrants from economically developing countries, empirical studies based on a wellrespected methodology conclude that post-1965 immigrant men have low initial earnings and sluggish earnings growth. This methodology is based on flawed assumptions (Duleep, Liu, and Regets, 2022). Removing these assumptions reveals high earnings growth for post-1965 immigrant men in accordance with the Immigrant Human Capital Investment Model (Duleep and Regets, 1999). A similar story emerges for immigrant women, contradicting the Family Investment Hypothesis first put forth by Long (1980) and Duleep and Sanders (1993). It appears a pre- 1965/post-1965 transition occurred in the earnings profiles of U.S. immigrants, from earnings resembling those of U.S. natives to low initial earnings but much higher earnings growth than their U.S.-born statistical twins. The transition underlies the overtime success story of immigrant families from economically developing countries (Duleep, Regets, Sanders, and Wunnava, 2021); the high earnings growth reflects human capital investment that invigorates the economy (Duleep, Jaeger, and McHenry, 2018; Green, 1999, Green and Worswick, 2012). |
| Keywords: | Immigrant earning growth, human capital investment, skill transferability, immigrant quality, sample restrictions, family investment hypothesis, nonparametric estimation |
| JEL: | J15 J16 J24 J31 C1 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1596 |
| By: | Michelle Garfinkel (University of California-Irvine); Constantinos Syropoulos (School of Economics, Drexel University) |
| Abstract: | We provide a selective overview of the literature on the linkages between interstate conflict and international trade, paying special attention to how trade openness (i) affects arming incentives, (ii) the channels through which its effects travel, and (iii) its consequences for the emergence of war (or peace) as an equilibrium outcome. We also discuss how restrictive trade policies may interact with national security concerns and what they imply for welfare. |
| Keywords: | Gains from trade, National security, Arming, War and peace |
| JEL: | C78 D30 D70 D74 F10 F51 F60 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202510 |
| By: | S. Chandrasekhar; Karthikeya Naraparaju; Ajay Sharma |
| Abstract: | We provide annual estimates of inequality in monthly per capita household earnings in India over the period 2017/18 to 2022/23 based on analysis of India's Periodic Labour Force Surveys. Over the six years, the estimate of inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient is in the range of 0.40 to 0.44 and, as measured by the Mean Log Deviation, between 0.28 and 0.34. We find that a 1 percentage point increase in the level of urbanization may increase the Mean Log Deviation by 0.5 to 0.7 per cent. |
| Keywords: | Household income, Inequality, Urbanization, Kuznets, Decomposition, India |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-15 |
| By: | Hideto KOIZUMI |
| Abstract: | Recent trends in populism have revived essentialist views on human traits, prompting renewed debates about whether prejudices are biologically determined or socially constructed. Although previous studies have demonstrated the socially constructed nature of many prejudices, the long history of socioeconomic and political oppression makes it challenging to pinpoint the specific biases that drive discrimination. I address this issue by leveraging a unique natural experiment: discrimination based on blood type in Japan's marriage and labor markets. Specifically, I quantify how the arbitrary prejudice that labels individuals with type B blood as selfish leads to tangible discrimination. I develop a novel theoretical framework to differentiate direct, taste-based discrimination from indirect, market-based discrimination that operates through diminished labor market prospects and self-fulfilling prophecies. Empirical results reveal that this bias reduces marriage rates by 5.4 percentage points and increases unemployment rates by 2 percentage points, with additional evidence highlighting self-fulfilling prophecies among Japanese men with type B blood. The findings underscore the significant economic impact of a particular, socially constructed prejudice. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25017 |
| By: | Sigle-Rushton, Wendy; Nunes, Débora M.; Sochas, Laura; Chanfreau, Jenny; Suh, Siri; Wilson, Kalpana |
| Abstract: | Despite evidence of a growing interest in reproductive justice (RJ) amongst feminist economists, this interest is nascent. To avoid RJ becoming a buzz word and losing its political and critical edge, it is important to fully grasp what the RJ framework means and brings to research. This Dialogue aims to create a space where the possibility of an interdisciplinary, transnational exchange of knowledge and ideas could be explored and encouraged. It presents four views about what it means to adopt and commit to the reproductive justice (RJ) framework in feminist research. One of the contributors was trained as an economist and the remaining contributors trained in other disciplines. The contributions discuss directly or show by example how research guided by the RJ framework can contribute to the development of an ethical and effective transformative response to an increasingly oppressive policy trajectory in the current historical moment. |
| Keywords: | reproductive health; reproductive justice; social reproduction; feminist epistemology; feminist politics |
| JEL: | B54 J13 D63 |
| Date: | 2025–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127183 |
| By: | Philip Verwimp |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of civil war exposure in (early) childhood on school test scores as a teenager. It uses tests scores from the Concours National in Burundi, a nationwide competitive exam taken at the end of primary school, consisting of four academic disciplines for the period 2010-2012. These data are combined with exposure to civil war at different stages in childhood. The paper finds that an average duration of war exposure from in utero to age 12 (4.3 years) increases the age at which the test is taken with 1.72 years and causes a drop in the test score of 5.5 points on average (which is about 5% of the average grade), of which 1.75 points can be attributed to the scarring effect of war exposure and 3.75 points to the cognitive effect. The effects vary according to the timing of the shocks in childhood and along the distribution of test scores. Boys suffer more from the scarring effect, obtaining significantly lower test scores than girls from taking the exam at a later age, whereas girls suffer more from the cognitive effect of war shocks, conditional on age-at-test. Girl’s performance is more affected than boys for mathematics but not more for languages. The paper finds evidence for a sex-specific selection mechanism in utero. |
| Keywords: | civil war, childhood, education, teenager |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/390055 |
| By: | Weber, Philipp; Feld, Lars P. |
| Abstract: | In the early 2020s sharp surge of inflation, unprecedentedly high levels of government debt and deficits fueled attention for the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL). This theoretical framework for fiscally induced inflation is well-known and controversially discussed. However, empirical tests are scarce. This paper aims at testing the FTPL empirically by applying a tractable functional form of the intertemporal budget function to a wide range of crises in OECD countries between the years 1980 and 2023. The results imply that between 35 and 40 percent of excess government deficits and spending in times of crises are not financed by orthodox fiscal policy alternatives but instead result in higher prices. This provides empirical evidence for non-Ricardian fiscal policies in times of crises and strengthens the arguments of the FTPL. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, inflation, fiscal policy, government debt |
| JEL: | E31 E62 H62 H63 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:aluord:315750 |
| By: | Giovanni Dosi |
| Abstract: | There are at least three existential challenges to contemporary societies, as we know them namely first, the complete rupture of the social pact which characterized Glorious Decades after WWII in most of Western societies; and second, the deepening of the patterns of informatization and "intelligent" automation with the associated modifications in labour relations and mechanisms of social control. All that, third, is coupled with a climate crisis that might have well reached a tipping point toward a global ecological disaster. Here I shall briefly discuss the first, and even more briefly the second one, ending with some urgent policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Social Conflict, Social Pact, Inequality, Artificial Intelligence and Labour Processes, Environmental Crisis, Policy Objectives |
| Date: | 2025–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2025/15 |
| By: | Nguyen, Lan; Connelly, Luke B.; Birch, Stephen; Nguyen, Ha Trong |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the medical condition of Australian children aged 4 to 14 years and the impact of prenatal and early-life conditions on these health conditions, using a large national data set (n=4, 122) with 15 years of follow-up. Consistent with the developmental origins of health and diseases hypothesis and the life-course models of health, the in-utero environment and parental financial hardship during pregnancy and shortly after birth play a significant role and have a lasting impact on the medical conditions of children. These significant effects are not reduced by controlling for child, family, and neighbourhood characteristics. The impact of improvements in family income when the child is aged 4 to 14 years does not compensate for the impact of health disadvantages in the prenatal and postnatal period. |
| Keywords: | Early Life Conditions, Child Development, Panel Data, Australia |
| JEL: | I14 J13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1579 |
| By: | Julen ESTEBAN-PRETEL; Junichi FUJIMOTO |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we use the Japanese Labour Force Survey and Labour Force Survey Special Survey microdata for 1984–2012 to analyze stable and unstable employment in Japan since the 1980s for different worker groups. In particular, we use two different concepts used in Japan to categorize employees by job security-one based on how the job is called at the workplace and the other based on the length of the contract-to explore the evolution of stable employment for workers disaggregated by age, gender, education, and marital status. We find that while the proportion of stable employment varies substantially by age, gender, education, and marital status, it declined widely across worker groups since the 1980s. In particular, males and females in their 20s who only have high school or less education or who have never married saw the greatest declines in stable employment. Our analysis suggests a complex interaction between the trend toward less job security and the shift away from marriage witnessed in Japan since the 1980s. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25025 |
| By: | Francois de Soyres; Ece Fisgin; Ana Maria Santacreu |
| Abstract: | A new measure of patent similarity shows China shifting its international patents toward technology-intensive industries traditionally dominated by developed nations. |
| Keywords: | China; patents; technology |
| Date: | 2025–04–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:99789 |
| By: | Taiyo FUKAI; Masato OIKAWA; Takahiro TORIYABE |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the effects of natural disasters on capital investment and production. We examined the impact of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, the fourth largest earthquake ever recorded worldwide, on the fishing industry. Rich administrative data from the fishing industry allowed us to identify the impact on output, labor input, capital reinvestment and technology switching caused by the severe damage to fishing facilities and equipment from the tsunami waves. The results show that immediately after the earthquake, the number of fishing boats and sales decreased by 60%. Five years later, the number of boats was still lower by 20% and sales were down by 11%. The negative effects persisted even after 10 years. We also found that high-productivity fishers tended to adopt new fishing technologies due to the reduction in switching costs caused by government financial aid, but we did not find a similar effect for low-productivity fishers. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25027 |
| By: | Sulin Sardoschau; Annalí Casanueva Artís |
| Abstract: | Freedom of speech is central to democracy, but protests that amplify extremist views expose a critical trade-off between civil liberties and public safety. This paper investigates how right-wing demonstrations affect the incidence of hate crimes, focusing on Germany’s largest far-right movement since World War II. Leveraging a difference-in-differences framework with instrumental variable and event-study approaches, we find that a 20% increase in local protest attendance nearly doubles hate crime occurrences. We explore three potential mechanisms—signaling, agitation, and coordination—by examining protest dynamics, spatial diffusion, media influence, counter-mobilization, and crime characteristics. Our analysis reveals that large protests primarily act as signals of broad xenophobic support, legitimizing extremist violence. This signaling effect propagates through right-wing social media networks and is intensified by local newspaper coverage and Twitter discussions. Consequently, large protests shift local equilibria, resulting in sustained higher levels of violence primarily perpetrated by repeat offenders. Notably, these protests trigger resistance predominantly online, rather than physical counter-protests. |
| Keywords: | protest, signal, hate crime, refugees, right-wing |
| JEL: | D74 J15 D83 Z10 D72 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11745 |
| By: | Almerud, Jakob (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Krygier, Dominika (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Lundvall , Henrik (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Njie, Mambuna (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden) |
| Abstract: | We construct and make available a new monetary policy event study database with high-frequency financial market reactions to Riksbank communications, spanning a period of 20 years. Using these data as instruments, we estimate the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks in Sweden. A temporary, unexpected policy rate tightening induces an immediate and persistent appreciation of the krona exchange rate, as well as a gradual, negative response in output and consumer prices. These results are statistically significant, economically meaningful and robust to a number of variations in our econometric specification. In particular, we consider the possibility that financial market reactions to Riksbank communications may consist not only of pure monetary policy shocks, but could also reflect market participants’ updates concerning the central bank’s reaction function. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy surprise database; monetary policy shocks; intraday; event study; proxy VAR; macroeconomic effects |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E52 E58 G14 |
| Date: | 2024–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0445 |
| By: | Robert C. M. Beyer; Claire Li; Mr. Sebastian Weber |
| Abstract: | EU enlargement has stalled since the last member joined over ten years ago, marking the longest period without expansion since 1973. This elapsed time contrasts with the potential income gains membership promises. Drawing on the biggest EU enlargement in 2004 and employing a synthetic difference-in-difference estimator on regional data, we estimate that EU membership has increased per capita incomes by more than 30 percent. Capital accumulation and higher productivity contributed broadly equally, while employment effects were small. Gains were initially driven by the industrial sector and later by services. Despite substantial regional heterogeneity in gains—larger for those with better financial access and stronger integration in value chains prior to accession—all regions that joined the EU benefited. Moreover, existing members benefited too, with average income per capita around 10 percent higher. The estimated gains suggest that deep integration carries significant additional economic benefits beyond simple trade unions, providing valuable lessons for future EU enlargement and regional integration efforts elsewhere. |
| Keywords: | European Union; Deep Integration; 2004 EU Enlargement; GDP Growth; NUTS2 Regions |
| Date: | 2025–02–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/047 |
| By: | Xu, Tao Louie |
| Abstract: | This research investigates the role of political settlements in industrial policy, either facilitating or hindering capability development and structural transformation. The Global South’s power relations and institutions within policy processes, however, are not properly grasped. With the political settlements framework, the comparative research dissects the continuity and change of power and rent distribution in China and Indonesia under selective neoliberalism from 1990 to 2022, followed by case studies of First Automotive Works and Astra in auto manufacturing. The results illustrate that China has transitioned from a developmental settlement to vulnerable authoritarianism and back, while Indonesia has moved to competitive clientelism and elite ruling. The findings indicate that effective rent distribution of industrial policy counts on vertical legitimacy, whereas horizontal opposition exacerbates policy coherence. The interplay between industrial policy rents and the settlements concludes that consolidated power enables efficient resource allocation and policy efficacy; by contrast, power dispersal erodes development capacity due to political instability and interest divergences. For capability development and structural transformation, industrial policy design ought to align with specific power dynamics within varied institutions. |
| Keywords: | political settlements framework; industrial policy; selective neoliberalism; automotive manufacturing; China; Indonesia |
| JEL: | B5 B52 L5 L6 N4 N6 O1 O2 O3 O4 P5 |
| Date: | 2024–08–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122669 |
| By: | Luca Bettarelli; Davide Furceri; Prakash Loungani; Jonathan D. Ostry; Loredana Pisano |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we first test the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, using a large sample of approximately 190 advanced and developing countries, over a period of 34 years (1989-2022). We find that (CO 2 ) emissions respond positively to increasing income per capita, up to a turning point of approximately US$25, 000. In a departure from the previous literature, we allow the relationship between economic development and emissions to depend on the stringency of environmental regulation. |
| Keywords: | Kuznets, Climate change, Environmental policy, Carbon tax |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-18 |