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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Stephen Broadberry; Kyoji Fukao; Tokihiko Settsu |
| Abstract: | This paper uses recently revised data on Japanese GDP to analyse the process by which Japan caught-up with the West. The new historical national accounts suggest that Japan was more than one-third richer in 1874 than suggested by Maddison, and that the Meiji period growth built on earlier development. We show that (1) despite trend GDP per capita growth during the Tokugawa shogunate, the catching-up process only started after 1890 with respect to Britain, and after World War 1 with respect to the United States and many European nations (2) although catching up was driven by the dynamic productivity performance of Japanese manufacturing, Japanese success in exporting manufactured goods was just as much driven by limiting the growth of real wages (3) despite claims that Japan was following a distinctive Asian path of labour intensive industrialisation, capital played an important role in the catching-up process. |
| Date: | 2025–02–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_216 |
| By: | Piotr Koryś (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Marcin Wroński (Collegium of World Economy, SGH Warsaw School of Economics; Visiting Scholar, Minda de Gunzburg, Center for European Studies, Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impact of railway construction on local populations in Russian Poland in the 19th century. The initial wave of railway expansion outpaced economic demand. From the late 1860s onward, locations connected to the railway network experienced significantly higher population growth. The economic effects of the connection to the railway network increased over time. State-funded military railway lines generated a smaller impact than private-owned lines. We also study the impact of the railway connection on social mobility proxied through a number of notable people born in a given city. However, we do not identify any robust impact. |
| Keywords: | economic history, Russian Poland, economic growth, railways |
| JEL: | N13 N33 N73 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2025-07 |
| By: | Stephen Broadberry; Mark Harrison |
| Abstract: | We draw lessons from three centuries of economic warfare and sanctions. Establishing cause and effect is difficult because much else was typically changing during periods of conflict. Unintended consequences were everywhere. Impact was followed (and sometimes preceded) by adaptation so that countermeasures blunted the effectiveness of economic warfare measures and sanctions. This does not mean that the original measures were unimportant, because countermeasures were costly to the target country. Civilian lives and interests were collateral damage. Economic warfare and sanctions worked most effectively when complemented by fighting power either engaged in conventional warfare or credibly threatening war as a deterrent, and they were ineffective in its absence. |
| Date: | 2025–02–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_215 |
| By: | Fenske, James (University of Warwick); Gupta, Bishnupriya (University of Warwick); Mukhopadhyay, Anwesh (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | We review the present-day impacts of colonial rule on former colonies. Persistence exists because of multiple equilibria, path dependence, institutions, culture, knowledge, and technology. Empirical work in this literature primarily uses tools from applied econometrics, though best practices are needed to overcome the limitations of these tools. Colonial interventions relating to institutions, infrastructure, land, forced labour, the slave trade, and human capital all have measurable impacts in the present. And yet many colonial interventions have failed to persist or have led to reversals. These cases are informative about why colonial rule still matters, as are cases where precolonial influences have had persistent impacts despite, or even because of, colonial rule. |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification: |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:752 |
| By: | Sascha O. Becker; Amma Panin; Steven J. Pfaff; Jared Rubin (Chapman University) |
| Abstract: | This chapter examines the role of religion in economic development, both historically and today. Religion's influence varies globally, with high religiosity in countries like Pakistan and low rates in China. Despite declines in some Western countries, religion remains influential worldwide, with projected growth in Muslim populations due to higher fertility rates. Religion continues to shape societal norms and institutions, such as education and politics, even after its direct influence fades. The chapter explores how religious institutions and norms have impacted economic outcomes, focusing on both persistence and decline. It also examines cultural transmission, institutional entrenchment, networks, and religious competition as mechanisms sustaining religion's influence. We explore the relationship between religion and secularization, showing that economic development does not always reduce religiosity. Lastly, the chapter highlights gaps in the literature and suggests future research areas on the evolving role of religion in economic development. |
| Keywords: | Religion; Economic Development; Religiosity; Cultural Transmission; Secularization; Historical Persistence; Religious Competition; Networks; Social Norms |
| JEL: | D85 I25 J10 N30 O33 O43 P48 Z10 Z12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chu:wpaper:25-01 |
| By: | Becker, Sascha O (University of Warwick); Panin, Amma (UC Louvain); Pfaff, Steven (CWES); Rubin, Jared (Chapman University) |
| Abstract: | This chapter examines the role of religion in economic development, both historically and today. Religion's influence varies globally, with high religiosity in countries like Pakistan and low rates in China. Despite declines in some Western countries, religion remains influential worldwide, with projected growth in Muslim populations due to higher fertility rates. Religion continues to shape societal norms and institutions, such as education and politics, even after its direct influence fades. The chapter explores how religious institutions and norms have impacted economic outcomes, focusing on both persistence and decline. It also examines cultural transmission, institutional entrenchment, networks, and religious competition as mechanisms sustaining religion's influence. We explore the relationship between religion and secularization, showing that economic development does not always reduce religiosity. Lastly, the chapter highlights gaps in the literature and suggests future research areas on the evolving role of religion in economic development |
| Keywords: | Religion ; Economic Development ; Religiosity ; Cultural Transmission ; Secularization ; Historical Persistence ; Religious Competition ; Networks ; Social Norms JEL Codes: D85 ; I25 ; J10 ; N30 ; O33 ; O43 ; P48 ; Z10 ; Z12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1550 |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou |
| Abstract: | This study models the cyclical rise and fall of Chinese dynasties through the interplay of power and corruption using the Van der Pol equation. It captures the historical pattern where dynasties emerge with low corruption and rising power, reach a peak, and collapse as corruption undermines authority. The Van der Pol model, known for generating self-sustaining cycles, reflects how early dynastic reforms drive rapid power growth, while increasing corruption accelerates decline and collapse. The system then resets, mirroring the continuous rise and fall observed in Chinese history. Additionally, the study analyzes the evolution of the system's total energy, revealing how power and corruption interact to drive cycles of expansion, instability, and collapse. Simulations further show how cor ruption feedback intensity influences the length and stability of dynastic cycles, explaining why some dynasties, like the Han and Tang, endured longer than others, such as the Song and Ming. This research offers a quantitative framework to understand the repetitive nature of dynastic cycles driven by power and corruption. |
| Date: | 2025–03–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:747 |
| By: | Stephen Broadberry; Kyoji Fukao; Hanhui Guan |
| Abstract: | Comparing the major Asian economies of China, India and Japan without taking account of variations in size suggests that the Asian Little Divergence began in the eighteenth century when Japan overtook first India and then China. However, the Great Divergence debate has focused on when the leading regions of the declining countries first fell behind and there was significant regional variation in GDP per capita in all three countries. Allowing for regional variation significantly changes the dating of the Asian Little Divergence: (1) In China, the Yangzi Delta, with a population about the same size as the whole of Japan, did not fall behind until around the time of the Meiji restoration in 1868. (2) In Japan, the Kinai region forged ahead of the Yangzi Delta around 1800. (3) In India, Mysore remained behind the Yangzi Delta throughout the period 1600-1870 and therefore has less significance for the timing of the Asian Little Divergence. |
| Date: | 2025–04–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_219 |
| By: | Saumik Paul; Kunal Sen |
| Abstract: | Building upon a multisectoral framework in light of the Kuznetsian paradigm, this paper analyses the relationship between structural transformation and income inequality. Empirical evidence is drawn using a large census dataset consisting of more than 22 million individuals from Mexico and the United States in 2000 and 2020. The Gini coefficient of income in Mexico decreased from 0.49 in 2000 to 0.43 in 2020, whereas it slightly increased in the US from 0.49 in 2000 to 0.51 in 2020. |
| Keywords: | Kuznets, Structural transformation, Manufacturing, Services, Inequality, Mexico, United States |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-13 |
| By: | Agarwal, Rounak |
| Abstract: | Sick of the scummy "trading gurus" that pry upon new market entrants and subsequently encountering "The Inner Circle Trader" on YouTube, I decided to test his "ICT concepts" more deeply after some superficial backtesting and forward-testing. In this research project, I dived into the price action data of 14 forex pairs over a period of 21 years, and the results have tremendously boosted my confidence in the concepts developed by Michael Joe Huddleston, whom I have come to accept as my mentor. I understand the skepticism around his concepts and made this project to help the new, uninformed "retail, dumb money" make more informed decisions who want to indulge in forex trading and are looking for the Holy Grail - the "perfect" forex trading strategy. |
| Date: | 2023–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:7yw86_v1 |
| By: | Massimo Cervesato (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we aim to shed new light on the methodology that Elinor Ostrom used to study real institutional situations by analyzing the specific theoretical influences that led her to mobilize the notion of complexity. We show the hitherto neglected decisive influence on her work of the "sciences of the artificial", a term coined by the political scientist, economist and precursor of systems thinking, Herbert A. Simon. On several occasions, Ostrom described Simon's book The Sciences of the Artificial as the precursor of a new methodology upon which she relied to understand the most complex system of all: human society. We thus demonstrate that the systems-engineering approach, in particular as established by Simon, played a greater role in Ostrom's work than is usually assumed. This way, we expect to provide a more precise understanding of the notion of complexity she used and the methodological choices that resulted from it. In so doing, we also illustrate how an interdisciplinary approach based on the notion of complexity can concretely be used in institutional economics |
| Keywords: | Ostrom (Elinor); complexity; Economic Methodology; Simon (Herbert A.); Systems Science; Institutional Analysis |
| JEL: | B25 B31 B41 B52 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:25007 |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou |
| Date: | 2025–03–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:746 |
| By: | Cooper, Julian |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the growth of military production in Russia since the onset of the war against Ukraine in February 2022. Utilizing official data from Rosstat, the study explores how military production is classified within Russian industrial output statistics. The analysis reveals significant increases in the production of military goods, particularly in the machine building and chemical industries, despite the impact of Western sanctions. The paper highlights the complexities of isolating military production due to the inclusion of civilian goods produced by defense companies. The findings suggest that while sanctions have affected the types and modernity of military goods, they have not significantly hindered Russia's ability to produce these goods in large quantities. The study concludes that the Russian economy has been militarized to a partial extent, supporting the view that it is not a full-scale war economy but one adapted to conducting a war. |
| Keywords: | Russia, economy, war, sanctions |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:314415 |
| By: | Shelley Liu |
| Abstract: | Literature on rebel governance has examined various ways in which rebels engage with civilians, build informal governing institutions, and exert social control during civil war. When rebels win, how does rebel governance affect post-war politics? This paper explores how varieties of insecurity that the victor faces after war—external threat, internal challengers, or electoral politics—explain the role of rebel-civilian ties in helping the new ruling party to successfully consolidate power. |
| Keywords: | Post-conflict, Governance, Zimbabwe, Civil conflict |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-6 |
| By: | Jared Rubin (Chapman University) |
| Abstract: | This chapter presents a conceptual framework for understanding the interaction of religion, ideology, and politics. The framework’s key insights are: i) culture and ideology provide a shared mental framework for interpreting the world; ii) ideology is malleable, and it can be used to justify a wide set of empirical realities in a manner that is consistent with the prevailing mental framework; iii) religion is particularly adept at shaping this mental framework because it attempts to explain the unknown; iv) because co-religionists share a mental framework that depends on a (religious) interpretation of events, religions are particularly likely to be co-opted by individuals who gain a comparative advantage in religious interpretation; v) religious authorities are useful for legitimating political rule because of their comparative advantage in interpreting events as well as their platforms for creating common knowledge. The chapter concludes with several historical examples from various religions of the political and economic consequences of religious legitimation of political rule. |
| Keywords: | religion, culture, ideology, politics, political legitimacy |
| JEL: | P48 P50 Z12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chu:wpaper:25-02 |
| By: | Jose Luis Oreiro |
| Abstract: | The current article has two main objectives. The first one is to make a historical reconstruction of the debate between Keynes and Classical economists in the period just after the publication of the General Theory (1937-1939) in order to highlight the differences between Liquidity Preference and Loanable funds theory of interest rate determination. In opposition of what seemed to be a consensus in economic literature (See Oreiro, 2001), both theories had very different implications about the nature of the rate of interest and the role of money in economic process. The second objective is to build a simple Keynesian Stock-Flow consistent model for the funding stage of the process of capital formation, represented by the Finance-Investment-Saving-Funding circuit. This simple model makes clearly that long-term interest rate for corporate bonds is a strict monetary variable, being dependent of liquidity preference of households and the monetary policy conducted by the Central Bank. In such framework, an increase in the households´ s propensity to save will increase, rather then decrease, the long term interest rate over corporate debt since it will decrease corporate profits which are the main source of internal funding for firms´ s investment plans, forcing then to issue more corporate debt in order to get the money required for funding investment, thereby reducing the price of corporate bonds and hence increasing the rate of interest over corporate debt. |
| Keywords: | : John Maynard Keynes, Liquidity Preference, Capital Formation, Finance and Funding. |
| JEL: | E10 E12 E44 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2509 |
| By: | Heise, Arne |
| Abstract: | During the neoliberal era, fiscal policy was side-lined: from a political economy perspective, it was seen as biased toward deficit and debt accumulation, while from a macroeconomic perspective, its potential role as a business cycle stabiliser was shifted to monetary policy, in line with the New Macroeconomic Consensus. This consensus codified the restrictive and passive orientation of fiscal policy through rules such as the European Stability and Growth Pact or Germany's 'Debt Brake.' Following a series of crises, fiscal rules have come under intense criticism, and Keynesian discretionary policy has regained popularity in both theory and practice. This article aims to provide a Post Keynesian perspective on fiscal policy: rejecting the idea of general equilibrium self-regulation and criticising the inherent limitations of (fiscal) policy, it advocates a functionally-oriented capital budgeting approach which favours an expansionary stance on the long-term budget balance and should not be left to the discretion of policy- makers. Instead, it should follow a transparent, non-overridable rule complemented in the short term by the unrestricted operation of automatic stabilisers and, only in exceptional cases, by discretionary measures to prevent severe depressions. |
| Keywords: | Capital Budgeting, Functional Finance, Fiscal policy rule, Post Keynesianism |
| JEL: | E12 E62 H30 H60 H62 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cessdp:313615 |
| By: | Jung, Alexander; Romelli, Davide; Farvaque, Etienne |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of reforms altering legal central bank independence (CBI) on monetary policy discipline and credibility, two key mechanisms shaping price stability. Using a sample of 155 countries over more than 50 years (1972–2023), we show that reforms improving CBI strengthen monetary discipline and the credibility of central banks. Larger reforms enhance monetary discipline with a lag, achieving their full effect after ten years. Central bank reforms have a greater impact on monetary discipline in countries that have not reversed earlier reforms. CBI reforms have the strongest impact in democratic countries, countries with flexible exchange rates, and those without a monetary policy strategy. The effects of CBI on monetary discipline and credibility are amplified when public debt-to-GDP ratios are high. These findings underscore the crucial role of CBI as a key factor influencing price stability and highlight the risks associated with weakening institutional autonomy. |
| Keywords: | independence, institutional reforms, local projections, monetary policy, money growth |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253049 |
| By: | Stephanie Johnson; Nitzan Tzur-Ilan |
| Abstract: | The 1990s rollout of mortgage automated underwriting systems allowed for complex underwriting rules, cut processing time and raised house prices substantially. We show that locations exposed to initial adopters of Freddie Mac’s Loan Prospector system experienced an early housing boom due to a switch to statistically-informed underwriting rules. Loan Prospector adoption increased lending at high loan-to-income ratios by around 18 percent. Applying our estimated response to lenders who adopted later, we find that the rollout of new lending standards with the GSEs’ systems can explain more than half of U.S. house price growth between 1993 and 2002. |
| Keywords: | credit; house prices; financial technology; mortgages |
| JEL: | G21 L85 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–01–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:99619 |
| By: | Marco Pecoraro; Bruno Lanz; Didier Ruedin |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the short- to long-term effects of large-scale refugee inflows on labour markets and anti-asylum attitudes. Using the exogenous arrival of Yugoslav refugees to Switzerland in the 1990s and municipal-level data with an instrumental variables strategy, we find that refugee exposure increased unemployment and anti-asylum voting in the short term. Over a decade later, the refugee shock is no longer correlated with unemployment, whereas anti-asylum attitudes not only decline but reverse in areas with higher initial exposure, notably in rural municipalities. These results highlight the temporary nature of labour market disruptions and the longer-term shift in anti-asylum attitudes consistent with contact theory. |
| Keywords: | Refugees, Forced Migration, Unemployment, Labour Market Effects, Anti-Asylum Attitudes, Voting Behaviour, Contact Theory |
| JEL: | J61 J68 D72 F22 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irn:wpaper:25-03 |