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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Carlos Marichal (El Colegio de México); Manuel Bautista González (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | En el presente trabajo, se ofrece un panorama histórico de la política monetaria en México entre 1900 y 1940 a partir de la literatura existente, así como del análisis de estadísticas históricas. El grueso de este informe está constituido por las estadísticas históricas compiladas y reconstruidas con base en los acervos documentales del Archivo Histórico de Banco de México, publicaciones del propio instituto central y otras obras de referencia. |
| Keywords: | Política Monetaria, Mexico, series cuantitativas |
| JEL: | E5 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emx:ceedoc:2025-01 |
| By: | Makoto Fukumoto (Waseda University); Masato Shizume (Waseda University) |
| Abstract: | Following the opening of the treaty ports in 1859 and Meiji Restoration in 1868, Japan instituted a series of drastic reforms, successfully modernized, and achieved prolonged economic growth. Among other entities, national banks structured as joint stock companies according to the US model played a key role in the modernization of the country by providing the society with liquidity and integrating the national financial markets. We explore the factors that led to the success of the national banks by constructing new datasets characterizing the origins of the national banks and the viability of individual national banks. We then perform regressions with this database to explore the emergence of banking activities during the preceded period and to test whether the origins of the banks affected their viability and regional economic growth. Empirical results from econometric analysis and case studies demonstrate that commoners who engaged in commercial activities played a key role in Japan’s modernization as the founders of the national banks. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2415 |
| By: | Haotian Zhang (China Agricultural University, Beijing, China); Sibo Lu (China Agricultural University, Beijing, China); Zhongkai Qian (China Agricultural University, Beijing, China) |
| Abstract: | The film “Breaking with Old Ideas†critically portrays the educational re-forms at Jiangxi Agricultural University, embodying Mao Zedong's vision for youth as successors of the revolutionary cause and his advocacy for educational equality. Released in the 1970s, the film initially received public acclaim but was later banned post-1978, after being labeled a "poisonous weed" during China's neoliberal shift. This reflected a significant transformation in the perception of revolutionary narratives. In contemporary China, the education system grapples with severe competition, pronounced inequalities, and authoritarian tendencies. The digital age and the resurgence of social media have facilitated the rediscovery of this film, highlighting its critical and reflective qualities that provoke discussions on educational ideologies. By juxtaposing traditional and revolutionary educational leaders, the film exposes the stark contrasts between Mao's reform-minded educational ideas and the so-called "modern education system." This study revisits these contrasting educational paradigms: the "old ideas" of monopolistic discourse knowledge and Mao's practical education model. Through an analysis of key scenes depicting these ideological and practical confrontations, the paper explores, through the prism of the Maoist critique, present-day aspects and challenges of Chinese education, and assesses the potential of Mao's educational philosophy to inform and transform contemporary education practices. |
| Keywords: | Educational Ideologies, Cultural Revolution, China |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0450 |
| By: | Benjamin Bridgman |
| Abstract: | Longevity contributes to welfare, but little is known about the relationship between wealth and longevity prior to World War II. This paper examines longevity of the very highest income people during the 20th century using several “rich lists.” I find that the very wealthy did not have lower mortality early on. Life expectancy at age 40 flipped from a 1.9 year penalty to a 7.5 year bonus. This increase in longevity inequality has a welfare impact that is an order of magnitude larger than increasing consumption inequality from 1950 to 1985. The urban longevity penalty of the early 20th century, particularly due to poor air quality, likely contributed to the rich penalty. The rich, a very urban population, died from causes that were more common in urban areas, particularly pneumonia. |
| JEL: | D31 E01 E21 J11 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bea:papers:0135 |
| By: | Valérie Mignon (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Antonin Aviat (SER Washington); Frédérique Bec (CY - CY Cergy Paris Université, CREST-ENSAE, THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CY - CY Cergy Paris Université); Claude Diebolt (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Catherine Doz (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Denis Ferrand (Rexecode, Paris); Laurent Ferrara (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Eric Heyer (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Pierre-Alain Pionnier (OCDE - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a reference quarterly chronology for periods of expansion and recession in France since 1970, carried out by the Dating Committee of the French Economic Association. The methodology is based on two pillars: 1) econometric estimations from various key data to identify candidate periods, and 2) a narrative approach that describes the economic background that prevailed at that time to finalize the dating chronology. Starting from 1970, the Committee has identified four economic recession periods: the two oil shocks 1974-1975 and 1980, the investment cycle of 1992-1993, and the Great Recession 2008-2009. For the Covid recession, the peak is dated in the last quarter of 2019 and the trough in the second quarter of 2020. |
| Abstract: | Cet article propose une datation trimestrielle de référence des périodes de récession et d'expansion de l'économie française depuis 1970, réalisée par le comité de datation des cycles de l'Association française de science économique. La méthodologie repose sur deux piliers : 1) des estimations économétriques pour identifier les périodes candidates et 2) une approche narrative détaillant le contexte économique de l'époque pour finaliser la datation. De 1970 à 2019, quatre périodes de récession économique sont identifiées : les chocs pétroliers de 1974-1975 et 1980, le cycle d'investissement de 1992-1993 et la grande récession de 2008-2009. Pour la récession Covid, le pic est daté au dernier trimestre 2019 et le creux au deuxième trimestre 2020. |
| Keywords: | Business cycles, French economy, Dating, Narrative approach, Econometric modeling, Cycles économiques, Economie française, Datation, Analyse narrative, Modèles économétriques |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-03661598 |
| By: | Kelly, Ross |
| JEL: | N14 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:127148 |
| By: | James, William |
| Abstract: | Economic historians have acknowledged the importance of the accumulation of craft knowledge and the incremental innovations that it helped to induce in turning Europe from a technological backwater in the thirteenth century to the most technologically advanced part of the world by 1750. Yet though artisanal manufacturing was largely an urban phenomenon in the early modern period, there has not been extensive historiographical focus specifically on how different urban dynamics shaped the production and circulation of craft knowledge. Additionally, those that do explore artisanal knowledge within the urban context often do so through the lens of agglomeration theory which presents a highly generalised understanding of the impact of cities. This critical review brings together the literatures from urban history and the history of science and technology with the intention of developing a more nuanced understanding that emphasises idiosyncrasy and heterogeneity rather than generality in the ways that European cities shaped artisanal knowledge. |
| JEL: | N63 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:127149 |
| By: | Jean-Laurent Cadorel (EBS Paris - European Business School Paris, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | What caused the 1929 crash of the New York Stock Exchange? This paper provides a quantitative study of liquidity in the 1929 crash of the NYSE. I evidence the crash was indeed a liquidity crisis due to the liquidation of brokers' margin loans. Applying recent estimators of effective spreads and liquidity conditions from contemporary finance literature suggests a fourfold increase in spreads during the crash at the aggregate level. At the individual stock level, quoted bid-ask spreads suggest liquidity explains one-fifth of the variance in daily stock returns in the crash. |
| Abstract: | Quelles sont les causes immédiates du krach boursier de 1929 à la Bourse de New York ? Cet article présente une étude quantitative de la liquidité dans le krach de 1929 et prouve que le krach était bien une crise de liquidité dûe à des appels de marge sur des prêts des courtiers. En utilisant des estimateurs issus de la littérature financière moderne, cet article met en évidence la sévère détérioration des conditions de marché. Au niveau agrégé, les spreads ont été multipliés par 4. Au niveau des actions individuelles, les écarts entre la meilleure offre et la meilleure vente suggèrent que la liquidité explique un cinquième de la variance des rendements quotidiens des actions au cours de la crise. Grâce à des données intra journalières sur les 80 plus grandes actions, cet article montre que les chutes ont eu lieu aux horaires fixes d'appels de marge. |
| Keywords: | 1929 crash, Stock market, NYSE, Financial crisis, Liquidity crisis, Krach 1929, Marchés financiers, Crise financière, Crise de liquidité |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-04347097 |
| By: | J. Travis Donahoe; Adam Soliman |
| Abstract: | In recent years, the majority of drug overdose deaths in the U.S. have involved illicitly-produced opioids (primarily heroin and fentanyl), overtaking prescription opioids as the main driver of the opioid epidemic. In this paper, we document a previously unexplored shift in heroin markets that played a critical role in driving this transition: the takeover of white powder heroin production by Mexican Drug Trafficking Organizations (DTOs) from Colombian DTOs beginning in 2012, which resulted in heroin that was adulterated with fentanyl and more variable in potency. Using a difference-in-differences approach that exploits the fact that white powder heroin markets were exposed to these heroin quality shocks while black tar heroin markets were not, we find that they increased heroin and fentanyl death rates by roughly 230% and 890%, respectively, from 2012 to 2019. Previously studied legal market interventions cannot explain these effects, and we shed light on key aspects of the evolving epidemic that were thus far unexplained. We conclude that shocks to heroin quality are a major determinant of the transition to the illicit opioid waves of the epidemic. |
| Keywords: | overdose epidemic, illicit opioids, segmented market , Crime |
| Date: | 2025–02–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2073 |
| By: | Mark Orsag (European and Interdisciplinary History, Doane University, Nebraska, USA); Amanda E. McKinney (Bellevue University/Beatrice Community Hospital, Beatrice, Nebraska, USA) |
| Abstract: | This interdisciplinary article examines interconnected issues of human and planetary health related to diet, disease, social organization, agricultural production, resource depletion and environmental damage. Largely egalitarian diets and lifestyles characterized prehistoric hunter-gatherer cultures. The Roman Empire serves as an example of the ultimate direct outcome of the Neolithic Revolution. As with the interconnected Mediterranean World of the Roman Empire in the second-third centuries CE, pandemic disease has likewise struck our third stage, the modern industrialized United States, in two centuries running. Prophylactic medical techniques, however, have brought these outbreaks under control more rapidly. The hyperabundant products of modern agriculture and the advances of highly technological medical care have extended lifespans of twenty-first century Americans far beyond those characteristics of the two earlier eras. Certain interconnected human and planetary limits, however, appear to have been reached. Recently, US life expectancy has “shockingly declined†to a mere 76.4 years amidst an upsurge in diet-linked chronic diseases. |
| Keywords: | Diet, Lifestyle, Prehistory, Roman Empire, Modern World |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0436 |
| By: | Jose Mauricio Gomez Julian |
| Abstract: | This research studies the relation between money and prices and its practical implications analyzing quarterly data from United States (1959-2022), Canada (1961-2022), United Kingdom (1986-2022), and Brazil (1996-2022). The historical, logical, and econometric consistency of the logical core of the two main theories of money is analyzed using objective bayesian and frequentist machine learning models, bayesian regularized artificial neural networks, and ensemble learning. It is concluded that money is not neutral at any time horizon and that, despite money is ultimately subordinated to prices, there is a reciprocal influence over time between money and prices which constitute a complex system. Non-neutrality is transmitted through aggregate demand and is based on the exchange value of money as a monetary unit. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.14623 |
| By: | Dulce Serra Simoes (Integrated Researcher CLISSIS, Assistant Teacher Institute Superior Miguel Torga, Portugal); Maria Rosa Tome (Integrated Researcher CLISSIS, Assistant Teacher Institute Superior Miguel Torga, Portugal) |
| Abstract: | The paper explores the history and development of Portuguese Social Work at the Miguel Torga Institute of Higher Education (ISMT) in Coimbra, Portugal, during the Estado Novo dictatorship. Documentary research in the ar-chives of ISMT–Coimbra, Portugal, made it possible to carry out a socio-historical analysis of social work (SW) training in times of dictatorship (1937-1974). The course was created by French nuns, under the influence of municipal socialism and Catholic trade unionism, to support pregnant women and children in need. The dictatorial regime regulated training from 1939 until 1956, allowing a curriculum with medicine, law, religious culture and corporate philosophical morality. The duration of the training increased from three to four years in 1940, and by 1962, it transitioned from a technical program to higher education. The study highlights significant changes, including the introduction of sociology, the compulsory apprenticeship and the inclusion of male students, as a result of profound changes in the world and, consequently, at the national level. Despite the regime's tight police control, international relations of various influences developed, generating resistance with the support of allies opposed to the regime. |
| Keywords: | Portuguese SW, SW Training School, Resistance Strategies, Coimbra |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0449 |
| By: | Wu, Ningzhu |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of international trade in shaping the economic development of Imperial China and Western Europe, focusing on the 50 years following the Opium War, a pivotal moment in the Great Divergence. Utilizing newly discovered primary data from Chinese Customs records, this study explores how trade dynamics—including volume, volatility, and product categories—interacted with political, institutional, and colonial factors. While trade significantly boosted industrialization in Western Europe, China’s weak institutions and colonial exploitation made it particularly vulnerable to trade fluctuations. Unlike other peripheral economies that experienced deindustrialization, China faced economic instability without industrial decline due to deteriorating trade terms. Trade, acting as an influence amplifier, magnified China’s institutional weaknesses, further deepening the divergence between China and the West. This paper contributes fresh insights into the broader impact of trade on the Great Divergence and offers practical lessons for underdeveloped regions today. |
| JEL: | N75 N73 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:127152 |
| By: | Ray C. Fair (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the history of U.S. infrastructure since 1929 and in the process reports an interesting fact about the U.S. economy. Infrastructure stock as a percent of GDP began a steady decline around 1970, and the government budget deficit became positive and large at roughly the same time. The infrastructure pattern in other countries does not mirror that in the United States, so the United States appears to be a special case. The overall results suggest that the United States became less future oriented beginning around 1970, an increase in the social discount rate. This change has persisted. This is the interesting fact. The paper contains speculation on possible causes. |
| Date: | 2025–02–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2422 |
| By: | Thaler, Balázs |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the effectiveness of the National Hungarian Economic Society (NHES) in representing agricultural interests in late 19th-century Hungary. As Hungary's leading agricultural interest group, the NHES shifted its focus in 1879 toward representing sectoral interests, responding to increased international competition and tensions in international trade. By analysing parliamentary records and NHES publications, the study found that while the NHES actively lobbied for agricultural interests, it often struggled to achieve its objectives, particularly in high-profile cases. External factors, such as strong Austrian interests and limited state capacity of Hungary, contributed to these challenges. However, internal issues also hindered the organisation’s capacity for collective action. An analysis of NHES membership data revealed the organisation likely struggled to integrate a diverse membership, which included landholders and non-farmers with varied interests. Disproportionate representation, weak norm enforcement and favouritism in lobbying efforts further weakened the cohesion of the organisation. The NHES lacked a comprehensive strategy to counter free rider issues and foster greater cooperation among members. Consequently, both external constraints and internal fragmentation weakened the NHES’ ability to effectively represent the Hungarian agricultural sector. |
| JEL: | Q10 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:127236 |
| By: | Daniel Orogun (University of Pretoria, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | Religion, as a universal phenomenon, is deeply rooted in cultural practices. Consequently, religious leaders and adherents use cultural arts like music to express religious thoughts in missions and related purposes. While most religious musicians leverage African cultural art to promote religious thoughts, secular singers like Fela Anikulapo use it as rebel art to challenge anomie in the political and religious spaces while shaping public opinion at the same time. This article, with the intent to focus more on the religious perspective, looks at some of Fela’s most popular political afrobeat renditions which placed a lens of criticism on the association of Nigerian politicians and religious leaders. In his songs titled International thief-thief, Authority stealing, Government of crooks, Who are you, Na fight o and Shuffering and shmiling, Fela challenged the alliances of religious and political leaders with colonial powers of his time and accused them of acquisitive venality through exploitations, money laundering and the abuse of religious titles among other issues. Although Fela is deceased, this article delineated the relevance of his political renditions in the current African religious ecosystems and emphasised the need to sustain the awakening created by Fela in the struggle to promote an egalitarian Africa. |
| Keywords: | Africa, neo-colonialism, philosophical consciencism, political leaders, religious leaders, Afrobeats |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0433 |
| By: | Maria Rosa Tome (Integrated Researcher CLISSIS, Assistant Teacher Institute Superior Miguel Torga, Portugal); Dulce Serra Simoes (Integrated Researcher CLISSIS, Assistant Teacher Institute Superior Miguel Torga, Portugal) |
| Abstract: | The “Carnation Revolution†opened up Portugal to the world and 'invaded' the Schools of Social Work with an impact on the training of Portuguese Social Work (PSW) and Miguel Torga Institute of Higher Education (ISMT), allowing them to conquer academic and professional fields. This paper conducts a socio-historical analysis of training based on documents from the ISMT Archives and interviews with key personalities. It explores three significant periods that mark the evolution of training in PSW at ISMT in Coimbra: 1) 1974 to 1990: during this period, the secularization of training took place, education was democratized, and students gained social rights while participating in struggles for their training and profession; 2) 1990s: this period highlighted the recognition of the degree, which aled to the development of postgraduate training and research, expanding career opportunities and professional fields; 3) Post Bologna Process: this section addresses the changes imposed by the Bologna Process, which reduced the duration of training from five to four years in 2004 and further to seven semesters in 2007, resulting in substantial changes for training and the profession. |
| Keywords: | Carnation Revolution, Social Work, Higher Education, Bologna Process |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0439 |
| By: | Kelly, Paul V. |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to provide the first time series of interest rates in the Irish mortgage market of the eighteenth century.1 This time series, when combined with new data on the investment returns from land and other types of investments, sheds light on the determinants of interest rates in economies without a central bank. This paper is relevant to two key global economic history issues for the period: the influence of institutions on economic growth and the timing of the ‘Great Divergence’ between Western Europe and the rest of the world.2 However, the primary questions dealt with are how did Irish rates compare with English ones and how did they influence the development of the Irish economy? Interest rates are ‘an important index of the quality of the institutional framework’ and this paper examines the development of Irish rates and shows how they compare to other economies.3 The paper demonstrates that Irish interest rates were consistently higher than equivalent English ones and that the Irish mercantile and industrial sectors were handicapped as a result. This spread is not attributable to risk premia caused by differences in institutional effects but rather by the relative risk/return hierarchy of different investment types, notably by the exceptionally high returns on Irish land. Credit market failure was the result for much of the century as the unrealistic usury maximum caused credit rationing. There was also a sustained strong correlation between English and Irish rates.4 However, this correlation was not due to direct market integration, since the English and Irish markets were segregated, but rather the two markets were reacting in the same way to external stimuli such as wars. |
| JEL: | N13 E43 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:127155 |
| By: | Giovanni Scarano |
| Abstract: | The paper discusses the possible presence and role of the concept of equilibrium in the formulations of the ‘classical economists’ and Marx, also examining the characteristics of the ‘long-period positions’ attributed to these authors. The paper argues that the ‘classical economists’ and Marx only considered all real economic phenomena as momentary results of an unstoppable historical and dynamic process, characterised by continuous conflicts and recompositions. In this context, so-called long-period positions could play a role in determining the dynamics of adjustment without ever being the point of arrival or stasis. This means that, for these authors, long-period positions could be drivers of the gravitation of economic variables, but not necessarily final resting points. It is also argued that the concern to determine the long-period positions of the prices of production did not have a central place in Marx’s analysis. |
| Keywords: | Equilibrium, Dynamics, Attractor, Long-Period Positions, Uniform Rate of Profit, Classical economists |
| JEL: | B12 B14 B51 D50 E32 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0285 |
| By: | Oettinger, Sophia |
| Abstract: | This dissertation examines Latin America’s historical attempts to address urban housing precarity during the 1990s through market-based social housing policies, focusing on Chile, Mexico, and Uruguay. It assesses how these policies, shaped by national coalition- building challenges, historical social policy frameworks, and state capacities, failed to resolve housing issues. Despite advancements in housing studies, the dual nature of housing as both a social good and a commodity—along with its complex social, financial, and spatial connections within the capitalist economy—remains insufficiently understood. This research employs a Marxist-inspired perspective to explore the nuances and shortcomings of the post- Cold War mixed economy governance in Latin America, situated between economic developmentalism and political liberalisation. It revisits concepts of post-structural development deploying the notion of 'privatised Keynesianism.' Latin American governments, aiming to stimulate housing markets, exacerbated economic instability by subsidising debt-financed consumption of market-produced social housing. Contrary to optimistic expectations about the spillover effects of financial liberalisation, this approach led to increased household indebtedness and deteriorating housing conditions. The dissertation reveals how the shift to market-oriented social housing policies and overwhelming focus on macroeconomic demand stimulation, intensified the link between liberalised financial markets and housing beneficiaries. To avoid confronting the wealthy while addressing poverty, the new welfare regime rather relied on informal housing solutions, such as self-built homes and cooperative models, pointing to the inherent capitalist dichotomy between the right to housing and the right to the city. Those intricacies fundamentally altered state-market-citizen relations and the spatial dynamics of modern cities. |
| JEL: | R31 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:127153 |
| By: | Thibaut Duprey; Victoria Fernandes; Kerem Tuzcuoglu; Ruhani Walia |
| Abstract: | We introduce a history of macroprudential policy (MPP) events in Canada since the 1980s. We document the short-run effects of MPP announcements on market-based measures of systemic risk and find that MPPs can influence the market’s perception of large banks’ resilience. |
| Keywords: | Financial system regulation and policies; Financial stability; Financial institutions; Econometric and statistical methods |
| JEL: | E58 G21 G28 G32 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocsan:25-4 |
| By: | Andrew B. BERNARD; Andreas MOXNES; SAITO Yukiko |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the importance of economic integration on the production of innovation. During the late 1980s and-90s, Shikoku and Honshu, Japan’s largest and fourth largest islands, were connected for the first time by three different bridges. This greatly reduced travel times compared to previous modes of transport such as ferry. We examine the impact of bridge connections on team formation and the production of knowledge, as measured by patent data. Using the geolocation of inventors before the opening of the bridges, we find that inventors located close to the bridges increased knowledge production more than inventors located farther away from the bridges. The treated inventors matched to more productive inventors at greater distances. Inventors on Shikoku were more likely to change their innovation teams and add co-inventors from Honshu while dismissing collaborators from Shikoku. The results are robust to instrumenting for the location of the bridges using the minimum bridge span distances between Shikoku and Honshu. We present a parsimonious economic framework that is largely consistent with the empirical evidence. Our results suggest that economic integration can have sizable effects on idea creation and innovation. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25009 |
| By: | Hall, Ursula |
| Abstract: | In order to push back against the narrative that the sanitary revolution in early 19th-century England was primarily an initiative of the government, this study investigates the characteristics of drainage adoption before it was legislated under state-provision after 1848. Whilst it finds that drainage adoption during 1812-1847 was both substantial and characterised by a sanitary impulse, it also uses Mokyr’s model of Household health and knowledge consumption to hypothesise that its provision on the commodity market resulted in an adoption pattern described by an inverse relationship between drainage adoption year and income, for which servant number is used as a proxy. Whilst an inconclusive correlation between average adoption year and average servant number rejects this hypothesis, it finds that this is in large part explained by a redistributive characteristic of adoption that occurred outside the model of household consumption. More specifically, the finding that those in the wealthiest income percentile were the primary remunerators for drainage adoption amongst the poorest members of the distribution supports the cautious conclusion that drainage adoption gave rise to a ‘learning’ process amongst this group, which resulted in the increased dissipation of drainage technologies across the period and potentially provided a productive impulse for later reform. |
| JEL: | N33 N53 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:127145 |
| By: | Alessandra Fogli; Veronica Guerrieri; Mark Ponder; Marta Prato |
| Abstract: | Since the 1980s, the US has experienced not only a steady increase in income inequality, but also a contemporaneous rise in residential segregation by income. What is the relationship between inequality and residential segregation? How does it affect intergenerational mobility? We first document a positive correlation between inequality and segregation, both over time and across metro areas. We then develop a general equilibrium model where parents choose the neighborhood where they raise their children and invest in their children’s education. In the model, segregation and inequality amplify each other because of a local spillover that affects the return to education. We calibrate the model to a representative US metro in 1980 and use the micro estimates of neighborhood exposure effects in Chetty and Hendren (2018b) to discipline the strength of the local spillover. We first use the calibrated version of the model to explore the economy’s response to an unexpected skill premium shock. We find that segregation dynamics played a significant role in amplifying the increase in inequality and in dampening intergenerational mobility. We then use the model to explore the effects of policies designed to move poor families to better neighborhoods, like the Moving To Opportunity (MTO) program. We show that scaling up MTO policies induces general equilibrium effects that limit their efficacy. |
| Date: | 2025–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmoi:99487 |
| By: | Guillaume Vandenbroucke |
| Abstract: | A demographic analysis examines how the rates of natural increase and net migration contributed to U.S. population growth from 1910 to 2022. |
| Keywords: | net migration; immigration |
| Date: | 2025–02–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:99516 |
| By: | Schlicht, Haley |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the dynamics of Western OECD syndicated bank lending to East Asian borrowers during the 1997-1998 Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), focusing on the interplay between sentiment volatility and moral hazard. Analysing loan data from Thomson-Reuters DealScan reveals that between 1993-2003 East Asian borrowers received disproportionately high loan volumes compared to other emerging market countries and this phenomenon is not full explainable by economic fundamentals. Regression analysis highlights the paradoxical role of short-term debt: while it was associated with higher loan spreads and fees, reflecting an acknowledgment of risk, it simultaneously increased lending volumes, indicating conflicting risk assessment. The study employs the novel use of GenerativeAI to construct an estimate of volatility in sentiment towards East Asia from financial news headlines, offering an original assessment of how market sentiment influenced lending behaviour. The Difference-in-Differences analysis provides compelling evidence that, in the pre-crisis period, increased sentiment volatility spurred increased lending while post-crisis that same volatility deterred lending. This shift highlights how lenders engaged in excessive lending despite appreciable risk before the AFC, only to recalibrate their behaviour in response to the post-crisis fallout. These findings indicate that the "East Asia effect" was shaped not just by regional economic factors, but also by sentiment-driven decision-making which contributed to the financial instability that characterized the AFC. This research highlights the need for further investigation into the role of sentiment in international finance, particularly its influence on financial decision-making during periods of economic growth and crisis. |
| JEL: | F34 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:127154 |
| By: | Sajayan, Gayatri |
| Abstract: | Until the passing of the 19th Amendment in 1919, voting rights for women in the US were not mandatory. Accordingly, many states refused women this privilege. However, the West appeared to be an exception, with all but one state in this region having granted female suffrage before federal enforcement. This paper seeks to understand the role of regional trends in female labour force participation in women’s enfranchisement, with a focus on the impact of occupational dispersion between 1880 - 1910. By exploring an avenue outside of religion and gender imbalances, an original contribution to existing literature on the success of Western women’s suffrage is provided. I utilise census data and governmental marital status statistics to conduct graphical analysis using cartography and complementary log-logistic regression analysis. The key finding of the paper is that women in Western states tended to be engaged in a narrow range of jobs – a consistent pattern found over the period of study. This helped them form a collective voice to fight for emancipation by facilitating mobilisation and more effective suffrage strategies. Hence, although the impact of women’s occupational dispersion is not found to be statistically significant, the relationship between the two variables is nevertheless historically meaningful. |
| JEL: | N31 J16 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:127205 |
| By: | Jan Fagerberg (Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture (TIK), University of Oslo, Norway. Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark) |
| Abstract: | The concern about the current generation’s overuse of the earth’s resources, at the expense of the well-being of future generations, is not new. Already half a century ago, there was a very vivid debate about this issue. A thorough assessment was made in 1975 by the Romanian-American scholar Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen in an article entitled “Energy and Economic Myths”, commonly acknowledged as one of the main sources of inspiration of the so-called “degrowth” literature. However, it is argued that it would be a misunderstanding to see Georgescu-Roegen as an advocate of “degrowth” (or alternatively a stationary economy) as appropriate strategies to save mankind from environmental and resource challenges. Georgescu-Roegen’s advice was not to stop economic development, or advocate for harsh sacrifices by those living today. Rather what he suggested was to overhaul the working of the global economy (and the policies associated with it) so that the world becomes a more equitable place, nature (threatened species) is better protected (to our own benefit), and the harm to future generations becomes as small as possible. A key element in making this possible, according to Georgescu-Roegen, was transitioning from a fossil-fuel driven to a solar-powered economy. It is argued that Georgescu-Roegen’s approach (and program) is indeed very relevant for contemporary discussions of how to deal with important challenges facing both the present and, not the least, future generations. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tik:inowpp:20250210 |
| By: | Bianchini, Virginia |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the establishment of Trieste as a Free Territory after WW2. The existing literature covered its contested status between Yugoslavia and Italy, focusing on its socioeconomic, and geopolitical challenges. However, I adopt a unique approach examining correspondence letters between country leaders and internal reports to provide first-hand accounts of the negotiations and considerations of leaders from the United States, United Kingdom, Italy, France, and the U.S.S.R. The methodology involves a qualitative analysis of the correspondence letters to comprehend the decision-making process behind the creation of Trieste Free Territory. The findings reveal a consensus on establishing a unique currency the "Triestuno" and Bank of Issue for Trieste, which aimed to provide financial stability but faced challenges due to limited initial capital and dependency on external financial support. It then complements this with internal reports providing data on economic indicators such as budget allocations, balance of payments, labour, and wages. The budgetary analysis shows a balance between revenue and expenditure, with a potential surplus indicating cautious financial planning. Furthermore, the balance of payments reveals Trieste's dependence on international trade, particularly with neighbouring countries and the importance of the port and shipbuilding industry offers potential for economic growth. |
| JEL: | F50 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:127146 |
| By: | Adeel Malik; Rinchan Ali Mirza; Faiz Ur Rehman |
| Abstract: | Colonial powers often governed the frontier regions of their colonies differently from non-frontier regions, employing a system of “frontier rule” that restricted access to formal institutions of conflict management and disproportionately empowered local elites. We examine whether frontier rule provides a more fragile basis for maintaining social order in the face of shocks. Using the arbitrarily defined historical border between frontier and non-frontier regions in northwestern Pakistan and 10km-by-10km grid-level conflict data in a spatial regression discontinuity design, we find that areas historically under frontier rule experienced significantly higher violence against the state after 9/11. We argue that 9/11 represented a shock to grievances against the state which, in the absence of formal avenues of conflict management, escalated into sovereignty-contesting violence. A key strategy employed by insurgents in this escalation was the systematic assassination of tribal elites, which undermined the cornerstone of frontier rule’s social order. |
| JEL: | D02 D71 N45 P48 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2025-01 |
| By: | Dietze-Hermosa, David |
| Abstract: | This paper approaches the discussion of the Byzantine economic revival of the 11th century using a qualitative comparative methodology (S Greece and S Italy) paired with descriptive statistics, and by including the heretofore under-discussed economy of Byzantine Italy. By doing so, it reveals and confirms the economic principles, associated with the Smithian growth framework, underlying said economic revival, namely, extensive economic growth followed by intensive economic growth brought on by demand-induced industrialisation and specialisation. This process was facilitated in the Byzantine empire by elite investment, monetisation and, in latter decades of the 11th century, trade liberalisation. This is evident with both southern Greece and southern Italy’s experiences with agricultural (especially olive oil and wine) and sericultural specialisation, and with the development of the southern Greek textile (especially silk) and pottery industries. Thus, the Byzantine economy is confirmed as experiencing sustained Smithian growth in the 11th century. |
| JEL: | N14 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:127150 |
| By: | Sabrina Di Addario; Michela Giorcelli; Agata Maida |
| Abstract: | The share of female inventors remains significantly lower than that of men in both developed and developing countries. This paper studies gender bias in patenting activity, using a unique dataset that matches Italian administrative employer-employee records both to patent data from the European Patent Office (1987-2005) and to municipality-level information on medieval guilds from the Italian Central Archive of State. We empirically verify whether women’s low propensity to patent can be explained by the historical local conception of women’s role in society, which we measure with the share of women in guild founders from the Middle Ages. The results indicate that the presence of women in Medieval guilds is associated with a higher probability of observing a female inventor and a higher number of yearly patent submissions by women. |
| Keywords: | patents, women, inventors, guilds |
| JEL: | J60 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11649 |
| By: | Costa, Dora; Bygren, Lars Olov; Graf, Benedikt; Karlsson, Martin; Price, Joseph |
| Abstract: | Explanations for the West’s escape from premature mortality have focused on chronic malnutrition or income and on public health or state capacity. We argue that by ignoring the multigenerational effects of variance in ancestors’ harvests, we are underestimating the contribution of modern economic growth to the escape from early death at older ages. Using a newly constructed multigenerational dataset for Sweden, we show that grandsons’ longevity was strongly linked to spatial shocks in paternal grandfathers’ yearly harvest variability when agricultural productivity was low and market integration was limited. We reason that an epigenetic mechanism is the most plausible explanation for our findings. We posit that the removal of trade barriers, improvements in transportation, and agricultural innovation reduced harvest variability. We contend that for older Swedish men (but not women) born 1830-1909 this reduction was as important as decreasing contemporaneous infectious disease rates and more important than eliminating exposure to poor harvests in-utero. |
| Keywords: | JEL classification: I15, J11, N33 |
| Date: | 2025–01–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajt:wcinch:82948 |
| By: | Kate Jialin Mao (Hunter College High School, New York, NY, USA) |
| Abstract: | Over the course of the 19th Century, as China’s economic power faded, millions of Chinese sought economic opportunity abroad. However, they were not always met with a warm welcome. By the 1870s, instead of being viewed as a dependable source of labor, Chinese Americans were looked upon with suspicion. While Chinese men were frequently accused of undercutting ‘white wages’ and engaging in organized crime, the harshest accusations against the community were in the form of hypersexualization of Chinese women. An early result of these unjust accusations was the Page Act of 1875, the first of a series of federal laws aimed at diminishing and eventually obliterating the Chinese-American community. This paper will explore the causes of the Page Act and its modern implications, highlighting how its effects still echo in our society. |
| Keywords: | Xenophobia, Sinophobia, Chinese Exclusion Act, Page Act, Chinese Immigration, Ethnic Panic, California Legislature, California Senate, Immigration |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0428 |
| By: | Ngoc-Sang Pham; Alexis Akira Toda |
| Abstract: | We revisit the classic paper of Tirole "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations" (1985, Econometrica), which shows that the emergence of asset bubbles solves the capital over-accumulation problem. While Tirole's main insight holds with pure bubbles (assets without dividends), we argue that his original analysis with a dividend-paying asset contains some issues. We provide a fairly complete analysis of Tirole's model with general dividends such as equilibrium existence, uniqueness, and long-run behavior under weaker but explicit assumptions and complement with examples based on closed-form solutions. Some of the claims in Tirole (1985) require qualifications including (i) after the introduction of an asset with negligible dividends, the economy may collapse towards zero capital stock ("resource curse") and (ii) the necessity of bubbles is less clear-cut. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.16560 |
| By: | Sistac, Eliott |
| Abstract: | In the four decades following 1960, the Southeast Asian economies of Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines (ASEAN5) grew faster than almost any other grouping of countries. This growth was marked by significant transformation of their industrial structures. First in Singapore and the Philippines, then in Thailand and Malaysia and lastly in Indonesia. This staggered pattern of industrialisation suggests a differentiated examination of each country’s industrial trajectory – a task this dissertation undertakes by exploring the Flying Geese (FG) model of economic development. The first aim of this study was to verify the applicability of the FG pattern in ASEAN5. To this end, the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index of ASEAN5 in low, medium and high technology manufactures is analysed to assess shifts in comparative advantages from 1964 to 1999. This is complemented by an analysis of FDI flows, for a comprehensive examination of the FG pattern in ASEAN5. The results of this analysis confirm the presence of an FG pattern of development among Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, but not the Philippines. The second aim of this study was to scrutinise the implications of the FG pattern of development in shaping the economic landscapes of ASEAN5. Three impacts, FDI-led growth, co-operation initiatives and poverty reduction, are considered within larger debates on the links between globalisation and economic development. The analysis reveals that the ASEAN5’s record of development under the FG pattern has been mixed, challenging some of the narratives around globalisation. |
| JEL: | N15 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:127147 |