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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Leigh, Andrew |
| Abstract: | From ancient times to the modern world, "The Shortest History of Economics" (published in the United States as "How Economics Explains the World") discusses the hidden economic forces behind war, innovation and social transformation. It traces how capitalism and the market system emerged, and introduces the key ideas and people who shaped the discipline of economics. From the agricultural revolution to the warming of our planet, teh book tells the story of economics that ranges across centuries and continents, highlighting the diversity of the discipline. It delves into the radical origins of the game of Monopoly, why the invention of the plough worsened gender inequality, how certain diseases shaped the patterns of colonialism, the reasons skyscrapers emerged first in American cities, and much more. The upload is the introduction to the book. |
| Keywords: | economic history; trade; technology; women in economics; sport; discrimination; japan; china; india |
| JEL: | B1 B10 B2 B20 B3 B31 N0 N00 N1 N10 N2 N20 N3 N30 N4 N40 N5 N50 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122935 |
| By: | Macve, Richard |
| Abstract: | I review how my work on accounting history has been made possible through collaboration with experts in various fields. |
| Keywords: | accounting; researching; publishing; history; interdisciplinary collaboration |
| JEL: | M40 |
| Date: | 2024–11–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125869 |
| By: | Michael D. Bordo; Edward S. Prescott |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the decentralized structure of the Federal Reserve System as a mechanism for generating and processing new ideas on banking policy in the 1950s and 1960s. We document that demand for research and analysis was driven by banking industry developments and legal changes that required the Federal Reserve and other banking regulatory agencies to develop guidelines for bank mergers. In response to these developments, the Board and the Reserve Banks hired industrial organization economists and young economists out of graduate school who brought in the leading theory of industrial organization at the time, which was the structure, conduct, and performance (SCP) paradigm. This flow of ideas into the Federal Reserve from academia paralleled the flow that was going on in monetary policy and macroeconomics at the time and contributed to the increased professionalization of research at the Federal Reserve. We document how several Reserve Banks, particularly Boston and Chicago, innovated by creating dissertation support programs, collecting specialized data, and creating the Bank Structure Conference, which became the clearinghouse for academic work on bank structure and later for bank risk and financial stability. We interpret these examples as illustrating an advantage that a decentralized central bank has in the production of knowledge. |
| JEL: | B20 E58 G2 H1 L1 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33263 |
| By: | Gareth Campbell; Áine Gallagher; Richard S. Grossman |
| Abstract: | Substantial amounts of British capital flowed to Latin America during the latter part of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Companies financed by this capital were typically headquartered in the UK, but operated thousands of miles away. This paper asks how this separation between governance and place of business affected the valuation of these firms. We find that the location of the headquarters played a more important role than the location of operations. Stock prices tended to fluctuate in line with other equities based in the UK, suggesting that they were still regarded as being, at least partially, British companies. |
| Keywords: | Latin America, equity markets, portfolio investing, emerging markets |
| JEL: | F21 F54 F65 G11 G12 G15 G51 N16 N26 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11562 |
| By: | Bennett, Robert J.; Hannah, Leslie |
| Abstract: | The article assesses the relative weight of different sources of workforce size, using both relative marginal effects and proportion of variance explained for the 545 largest British firms in 1881. Despite data uncertainties, integration is shown as the largest contributor to scale. Integration with mining had even larger effects, raising employment by 35%. Internal capital intensity reduced labour for the majority of firms by about 4 workers per £10, 000 capital, but much more for tramways. Place-based externalities had greatest marginal effects for agglomerations (measured by population size). Generally, sectoral localisation was insignificant, but for small localities with more than one firm in a single sector, firm size increased 26–30% compared to diversified localities. Local monopsony (measured by workforce proportion of local population) explained a large proportion of variance because it occurred in a large number of small places. Of other variables explored, only legal form is of major importance. |
| Keywords: | agglomeration; clusters; economies of scale; externalities; monopoly |
| JEL: | J21 |
| Date: | 2024–11–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126297 |
| By: | Galor, Oded (Brown University) |
| Abstract: | What sparked humanity's leap from stagnation to prosperity? What lies at the core of inequality among nations? Unified Growth Theory explores the evolution of societies over the entire course of human history. It uncovers the universal wheels of change that have governed the journey of humanity, driven the growth process, and shaped inequality across the globe. The theory sheds light on two of the most fundamental mysteries surrounding this journey: (i) The Mystery of Growth - the origins of the dramatic transformation in human prosperity over the past two centuries, in the wake of millennia of near stagnation; and (ii) The Mystery of Inequality - the roots of the vast inequality in the wealth of nations. The theory suggests that forces operating in the distant past are central to the understanding of the uneven development across the globe and the design of effective policies that could promote economic growth and mitigate inequality. |
| Keywords: | human capital, Unified Growth Theory, inequality, growth, demographic transition, Malthusian epoch |
| JEL: | I25 J10 O10 Z10 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17491 |
| By: | David J. Deming; Christopher Ong; Lawrence H. Summers |
| Abstract: | This paper explores past episodes of technological disruption in the US labor market, with the goal of learning lessons about the likely future impact of artificial intelligence (AI). We measure changes in the structure of the US labor market going back over a century. We find, perhaps surprisingly, that the pace of change has slowed over time. The years spanning 1990 to 2017 were less disruptive than any prior period we measure, going back to 1880. This comparative decline is not because the job market is stable today but rather because past changes were so profound. General-purpose technologies (GPTs) like steam power and electricity dramatically disrupted the twentieth-century labor market, but the changes took place over decades. We argue that AI could be a GPT on the scale of prior disruptive innovations, which means it is likely too early to assess its full impacts. Nonetheless, we present four indications that the pace of labor market change has accelerated recently, possibly due to technological change. First, the labor market is no longer polarizing— employment in low- and middle-paid occupations has declined, while highly paid employment has grown. Second, employment growth has stalled in low-paid service jobs. Third, the share of employment in STEM jobs has increased by more than 50 percent since 2010, fueled by growth in software and computer-related occupations. Fourth, retail sales employment has declined by 25 percent in the last decade, likely because of technological improvements in online retail. The post-pandemic labor market is changing very rapidly, and a key question is whether this faster pace of change will persist into the future. |
| JEL: | E24 J21 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33323 |
| By: | Ran Abramitzky; Lena Greska; Santiago Pérez; Joseph Price; Carlo Schwarz; Fabian Waldinger |
| Abstract: | We explore how socio-economic background shapes academia, collecting the largest dataset of U.S. academics’ backgrounds and research output. Individuals from poorer backgrounds have been severely underrepresented for seven decades, especially in humanities and elite universities. Father’s occupation predicts professors’ discipline choice and, thus, the direction of research. While we find no differences in the average number of publications, academics from poorer backgrounds are both more likely to not publish and to have outstanding publication records. Academics from poorer backgrounds introduce more novel scientific concepts, but are less likely to receive recognition, as measured by citations, Nobel Prize nominations, and awards. |
| JEL: | N3 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33289 |
| By: | Chu, Angus C. |
| Abstract: | Early modern humans interbred with archaic humans. To explore this phenomenon, we develop a Malthusian growth model with hybridization in human evolution. Our hunting-gathering Malthusian economy features two initial human populations. We derive population dynamics and find that the more fertile population survives whereas the less fertile one eventually becomes extinct. During this natural-selection process, a hybrid human population emerges and survives in the long run. This finding explains why modern humans still carry DNA from archaic humans. A higher hybridization rate reduces long-run population size but raises long-run output per capita for the surviving populations in this Malthusian economy. |
| Keywords: | Ancient human interbreeding; natural selection; Malthusian growth theory |
| JEL: | N10 O13 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121218 |
| By: | Pepper, Alexander |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the literature on British business elites by examining the development of pay structures and levels for CEOs of large listed companies in the United Kingdom for the period 1968–2022. It describes two competing theories about executive pay, ‘optimal contracting theory’ and the ‘market failure approach’, and considers to what extent they help to explain the historical data. The paper notes how the imitation of American pay structures, especially stock options, in the 1980s, along with the ending of high marginal tax rates which had been prevalent in the UK in the 1960s and 1970s, coincided with steep rises in executive pay. It concludes that isomorphic social comparisons, a prisoner’s dilemma at the heart of the work of remuneration committees, a collective action problem faced by institutional investors, and a discount that executives apply to the perceived value of stock options has resulted in top pay inflation. |
| Keywords: | business elites; Chief Executive Officers; FTSE100 companies; Corporate governancec; executive pay; market failure approach; optimal contracting theory |
| JEL: | R14 J01 J50 |
| Date: | 2024–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126504 |
| By: | Rustam Jamilov (University of Oxford); Tobias Konig (University of Bonn); Karsten Muller (National University of Singapore); Farzad Saidi (University of Bonn; Centre for Economic Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | We study bank runs using a novel historical cross-country dataset that covers 184 countries over the past 200 years and combines a new narrative chronology with statistical indicators of bank deposit withdrawals. We document the following facts: (i) the unconditional likelihood of a bank run is 1.2% and that of significant deposit withdrawals 12.7%; (ii) systemic bank runs, i.e. those that are accompanied by deposit withdrawals, are associated with substantially larger output losses than non-systemic runs or deposit contractions alone; (iii) bank runs are contractionary even when they are not triggered by fundamental causes, banks are well capitalized, and there is no evidence of a crisis or widespread failures in the banking sector; (iv) in historical and contemporary episodes, depositors tend to run on highly leveraged banks, causing a credit crunch, and a reallocation of deposits across banks; and (v) liability guarantees are associated with lower output losses after systemic runs, while having a lender of last resort or deposit insurance reduces the probability of a run becoming systemic. Taken together, our findings highlight a key role for sudden bank liability disruptions over and above other sources of financial fragility. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:2435 |
| By: | Rapetti, Martin |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes economic crises in Latin America (LA) from the 1970s to the 2000s, focusing on two major waves: the "lost decade" of the 1980s and the crises of the 1990s and early 2000s. Both waves followed periods of strong capital inflows, a common feature in developing countries facing financial turmoil. LA’s early integration into international capital markets and frequent crises offer a unique opportunity for comparative analysis. The paper also explores the absence of major crises during the early 2000s, despite intensified capital inflows, and examines the role of fiscal policy and sound macroeconomic management in mitigating vulnerabilities. |
| Keywords: | crisis, exchange rate, balance of payments, debt, Latin America |
| JEL: | F4 F41 O54 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123169 |
| By: | Zhong, Amy |
| Keywords: | Arts and Humanities, 150w, UCB, Women Faculty in Art History |
| Date: | 2025–01–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:cshedu:qt1rb8j8xg |
| By: | Hamid Noghanibehambari; Jason Fletcher |
| Abstract: | This study examines the long-term effects of the Rockefeller Sanitary Commission’s (RSC) hookworm eradication campaign, initiated in the American South in the 1910s, on old-age longevity. Utilizing Social Security Administration death records linked to the 1940 full-count census, we employ a difference-in-differences approach to examine the effects of early-life exposure to the eradication campaign on later-life outcomes. We find that individuals exposed to the RSC campaign during in-utero and early-life experience an increase of 1.3 months in longevity. The effects are substantially larger among nonwhites, children of illiterate mothers, and those born in urban areas. Moreover, we provide evidence of dynamic complementarity in the effects of hookworm eradication on longevity, with larger effects observed in counties exposed to the Rosenwald school construction movement and in states with more stringent child labor laws. Using the 1940 census and World War II enlistment data, we provide suggestive evidence of improvements in educational attainment, income, and cognitive ability as possible pathways. Our findings contribute to the literature on the lasting effects of early-life public health interventions and underscore the importance of such programs in addressing present-day global health challenges. |
| JEL: | I1 I14 J10 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33249 |
| By: | Moamen Gouda; Anouk S. Rigterink |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the long-term relationship between slavery and violent crime in the USA. Although qualitative evidence suggests that slavery perpetuated violence, there has been no large-N study supporting this claim. Using county-level data, we find that the percentage of slaves in the population in 1860 is linked with violent crime in 2000. This result is specific to violent crime, robust to instrumenting for slavery and varying the approach to missing crime data, and not driven by biased crime reporting. Investigating the theoretical mechanisms driving these results, we find that historical slavery affects inequality (like Bertocchi and Dimico, 2014), white Americans’ political attitudes towards race (like Acharya et al., 2016b) and black American’s political attitudes – in opposite directions. Results suggest that inequality and black American’s political attitudes mediate the observed effect on violent crime in general, but that white American’s political attitudes mediate the effect on interracial violence. |
| Keywords: | slavery, crime, inequality, political attitude, violence, US South |
| JEL: | J15 J71 K42 N31 D70 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11515 |
| By: | De Pablo Juan Carlos |
| Abstract: | Confieso, hice trampa. Porque el objetivo principal de esta monografía no es contestar el interrogante planteado en el título, sino reflexionar sobre la obra de un par de colegas que en 2024 cumplirán sus primeros 100 años (Robert Merton Solow nació el 23 de agosto de 1924, mientras que Arnold Carl Harberger vino al mundo el 27 de julio de dicho año). Aclaración. Comencé la versión preliminar de este trabajo a mediados de diciembre de 2023, días antes del 21 de dicho mes, cuando se produjo el fallecimiento de Solow. Pero seguí adelante porque la reflexión que sigue continúa teniendo sentido, más allá de la desaparición física de uno de ellos. |
| JEL: | B31 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4725 |
| By: | Hauer, Mathew; Brewster, Karin; Brooks, Matthew M (McGill University) |
| Abstract: | Historical estimates of the total fertility rate (TFR) are relatively uncommon, owing to the onerous data requirements for direct calculation and the lack of digitized records. Recent advancements in indirect fertility estimation 1 allow for estimation of TFR using data as minimal as a population pyramid – relatively common data in historical contexts through census records and population registers. Here we use published data on the age structure of Roman Egypt circa AD 12 to AD 259 2 to estimate TFR and 90%ile credible interval in an ancient time period and place using a Bayesian approach. Furthermore, the population data is separated by urban and rural areas, allowing for an unprecedented glimpse into ancient fertility levels. We find that ancient Roman Egyptian women in urban areas had considerably lower fertility than women in rural areas -- urban TFR: 3.37 [2.26 – 4.55], and rural TFR: 8.57 [6.01 – 11.25]. Our findings suggest that the modern day urban/rural fertility differential dates back nearly 2000 years. As demonstrated here, the advancements in indirect estimation could be deployed to better understand historical and ancient fertility regimes, shedding light on societies far before the existence of modern vital statistics systems. |
| Date: | 2024–12–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ru8xd |
| By: | Aneesha Parvathaneni; Dean Yang |
| Abstract: | Can temporary wartime mobilization change the long-run development trajectory of an economy? We study how mobilization for World War II in colonial India influenced its subsequent development. From 1939 to 1945, the British colonial government purchased massive amounts of war materiel within India. We study long-run impacts on structural transformation—the transition of employment from agriculture to modern sectors (industry and services)—in Indian districts. Causal identification takes a shift-share approach, exploiting variation across industries in war-related government orders, and variation across districts in their pre-war industrial structure. We find that World War II economic mobilization had positive and significant impacts on long-run development. More than six decades later, districts with higher procurement of war materiel saw greater structural transformation from agriculture towards industry and services, and higher consumption levels, urbanization rates, and in-migration. We find substantial spillovers on services sectors not directly subject to procurement. The majority of structural transformation effects are driven by procurement of heavy industrial goods. |
| JEL: | H56 N15 N45 O14 O25 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33246 |
| By: | Bush, Oliver |
| Abstract: | Theory predicts that inflation dynamics differ markedly according to the fiscal regime – in particular whether or not fiscal shocks are financed by changes in the discounted sum of real primary surpluses. This paper takes a narrative approach to the difficult task of identifying the regime. Narrative evidence on British policymakers’ stated fiscal objectives and financing plans shows that policymakers used fiscal policy to stabilise the public finances in the Gold Standard era but did not do so in the era of the Great Inflation (1960s-70s). These findings are supported by empirical evidence that expansionary fiscal shocks caused the primary balance to rise after a lag in the Gold Standard regime, but did not do so in the Great Inflation regime. The price level rose in response to these shocks in the Great Inflation regime, showing that unexpected inflation played an important role in stabilising the public finances in that era. |
| Keywords: | inflation; public finance; fiscal policy |
| JEL: | E60 N10 |
| Date: | 2024–11–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126211 |
| By: | Stefania Albanesi |
| Abstract: | Women’s labor force participation rose rapidly in the post-war period in the United States until the mid-1990s when it flattened out. I examine the impact of this change in trend in female labor supply on aggregate business cycles both empirically and with a quantitative real business cycle model that incorporates gender differences. I show that the rise in women’s participation played a substantial role in the Great Moderation, and not allowing for gender differences leads to incorrect inference on the sources of this phenomenon. I also show that the discontinued growth in female labor supply starting in the 1990s played a substantial role in the jobless recoveries following the 1990-1991, 2001 and 2007-2009 recessions. Moreover, it reduced aggregate hours and output growth during the late 1990s and mid 2000s expansions. I also find that the growth in women’s employment added substantially to TFP growth. These results suggest that continued sustained growth in women’s employment after the early 1990s would have significantly improved economic performance in the United States. |
| Keywords: | Women's employment; Business cycles; Great moderation; Jobless recoveries |
| JEL: | E17 E32 E37 J11 J21 |
| Date: | 2025–01–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmoi:99403 |
| By: | Antonin Bergeaud; Max Deter; Maria Greve; Michael Wyrwich |
| Abstract: | We investigate the causal relationship between inventor migration and regional innovation in the context of the large-scale migration shock from East to West Germany between World War II and the construction of the Berlin Wall in 1961. Leveraging a newly constructed, century-spanning dataset on Germanpatents and inventors, along with an innovative identification strategy based on surname proximity, we trace the trajectories of East German inventors and quantify their impact on innovation in West Germany. Our findings demonstrate a significant and persistent boost to patenting activities in regions with higher inflows of East German inventors, predominantly driven by advancements in chemistry and physics. We further validate the robustness of our identification strategy against alternative plausible mechanisms. We show in particular that the effect is stronger than the one caused by the migration of other high skilled workers and scientists. |
| Keywords: | Patents, Migration, Germany, Iron Curtain, Innovation |
| JEL: | H10 N44 P20 D31 |
| Date: | 2025–01–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0059 |
| By: | Cogneau, Denis; Mo, Zhexun |
| Abstract: | We examine the enforcement of two pillars of colonial rule in French West Africa, military conscription and head tax collection, using novel district-level data from 1919 to 1949. Colonial states are often characterized as either omnipotent Leviathans or administration on the cheap. Our findings reveal their notable coerciveness in achieving key objectives. Military recruitment targets were consistently met, even amid individual avoidance and poor health conditions, by drawing on a pool of eligible fit young men. Tax compliance was similarly high, with approximately 80% of the liable population meeting obligations. Spikes in head tax rates significantly increased tax-related protests, likely prompting caution among colonial administrators. The tax burden was adjusted according to perceived district affluence, and tax moderation was applied in times of crisis. However, local shocks such as droughts or cash crop price collapses were largely ignored. These results underscore the capacity of colonial states to enforce their authority despite limited policy responsiveness, offering new insights into the political economy of colonial governance. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper) |
| Date: | 2024–12–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7wnsz |
| By: | Chen, Serena; Ji, Cindy |
| Keywords: | Arts and Humanities, 150w, UCB, Women faculty Psychology |
| Date: | 2025–01–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:cshedu:qt7mj56005 |
| By: | Kazmi, Azma; Shaad, Manaal |
| Keywords: | Arts and Humanities, 150w, UCB, Women Faculty in Art History |
| Date: | 2025–01–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:cshedu:qt3288h3bv |
| By: | Salas Arón Bernabé |
| Abstract: | Academic consensus on the positive impact of the expansion of the Argentine railway network on its agriculture led economy between 1890 and late 1910s is broad. After this network reached its peak in the 1950s, a transition in transportation infrastructure began, reducing the rail network and expanding paved roadways. This paper estimates the impact of this transition at a subdistrict level for specific but comprehensive variables of the Argentine agriculture between the early 60s and the late 80s. Since the treatments involved in the work are two, the empirical strategy relies on a modified fixed effects differences-in-differences model. Then, to achieve more solid conclusions, mean differences tests were run between groups with different characteristics, realizing closer comparisons to the traditional treatment-control contrast. The main findings reveals that, for the variables of interest, there is an enhancing effect in the presence of the two treatments (railways and paved roads) performing simultaneously in the subdistricts; likewise, eliminating a treatment from places that used to have both of them and contrasting these to districts that maintained both over time provides negative and robust results, veryfing the enhancing effect hypothesis. In another aspect, the results do not reveal the existance of significant effects in subdistrict agriculture from the treatment of deploying paved roads to places that previously did not have any means of transportation. |
| JEL: | O2 N5 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4762 |
| By: | Poinsot Flavia Gabriela |
| Abstract: | El pensamiento económico de Calvino es poco explorado en relación con las dimensiones histórica, filosófica y política, siendo quizás la tesis de Weber (1905) la más conocida. Algunas investigaciones teológicas recientes en base a nuevas traducciones postulan que su acción en Ginebra, al defender la libertad de mercado, la propiedad, el trabajo libre y su especialización, permiten el paso a la economía de mercado. Al extenderse por los países del norte europeo, especialmente en Escocia e Inglaterra, cuna del liberalismo económico, desde el siglo XVI el calvinismo se convierte en una forma independiente de pensar, un sistema de vida que trasciende la interpretación confesional, sectaria y dogmática. Por ello resulta interesante analizar científicamente las ideas subyacentes en esa forma de pensar porque, siendo el marco cognitivo dominante de su pensamiento el mismo que el de los escolásticos y los Padres de la Iglesia, la teología, Calvino, mediante una lógica estricta, una mente cartesiana, se aleja de aquellos al analizar los mecanismos económicos. Este trabajo se inscribe dentro del nuevo campo interdisciplinario de la economía y la religión profundizando las cuestiones intelectuales que están en juego en el encuentro de la teología cristiana y la economía. |
| JEL: | B11 Z12 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4753 |
| By: | Ying Bai; Ruixue Jia; Jiaojiao Yang |
| Abstract: | This study examines the short-, medium-, and long-term impacts of state censorship on knowledge production, focusing on the largest book-banning campaign in Chinese history, initiated during the compilation of the 'Siku Quanshu' (Complete Library in Four Sections) between 1772 and 1783. Analyzing publication data from over 161, 000 books spanning the 1660s to the 1940s, we find that categories subjected to stricter censorship experienced significant declines in publication during the seven decades following the bans (1770s–1830s). However, beginning in the 1840s, political upheavals and the erosion of state control triggered a resurgence of publications in previously restricted categories. This pattern of suppression and recovery extends to ideas, as evidenced by keyword analysis of book titles. Further analysis highlights the central role of chilling effects in driving these dynamics, with the exit and entry of publishers playing a crucial role in both the suppression and subsequent revival of knowledge production. |
| JEL: | D83 H11 N40 O31 Z18 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33258 |
| By: | Ran Abramitzky; Leah Platt Boustan; Tamar Matiashvili |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an overview of recent empirical and methodological advances in the study of historical intergenerational mobility trends, with a focus on key measurement challenges. These advances are made possible by the recent digitization of historical censuses and new methods of historical record-linking, which have enabled researchers to create large historical samples of parent-child links. We identify three main findings. First, absolute mobility increased in the decades leading up to 1940 but has since declined, both in the US and other industrial countries. Second, recent studies on relative mobility question the classic narrative that the US has transitioned from a “land of opportunity” in the 19th century to a less mobile society today, suggesting that mobility was not as high in the past. However, estimates of relative mobility are sensitive to choices regarding sample selection and measurement. Third, we explore mechanisms underlying shifts in intergenerational mobility over time, including geographic mobility, wealth shocks, educational attainment, locational effects, and the transmission of parent-specific human capital. We conclude by suggesting avenues for future research. |
| JEL: | J6 N3 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33330 |
| By: | Lennard, Jason; Paker, Meredith |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates how a major policy shift – the suspension of the gold standard in September 1931 – affected employment outcomes in interwar Britain. We use a new high-frequency industry-level dataset and difference-in-differences techniques to isolate the impact of devaluation on exporters. At the micro level, the break from gold reduced the unemployment rate by 2.7 percentage points for export-intensive industries relative to non-export industries. At the aggregate level, this effect stimulated the labor market, the fiscal outlook, and economic growth. Devaluation was therefore an important initial spark of recovery from the depths of the Great Depression. |
| Keywords: | exports; gold standard; interwar Britain; unemployment |
| JEL: | E24 F41 J64 N14 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126517 |
| By: | Alfani, Guido; Sardone, Sergio |
| Abstract: | This paper uses new archival sources to study the long-term tendencies in economic inequality in preindustrial southern Italy (Kingdom of Naples). The paper reconstructs long-term trends in wealth inequality for the period 1550-1800 for a sample of communities in the region Apulia and produces estimates of overall inequality levels across the region. These estimates are compared with those which have recently been published for other Italian and European regions or states. The article also reconstructs the total income distribution for the mid-eighteenth century, then comparing wealth and income inequality. Overall, the evidence for the Kingdom of Naples suggests a tendency for economic inequality to grow continuously over the early modern period. As this was mostly a period of economic stagnation or decline for the Kingdom, the article provides further insights to the debate on the long-run relationship between economic growth and inequality change. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper) |
| Date: | 2024–12–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:b8jgn |
| By: | Gary Koop; Stuart McIntyre; James Mitchell; Aristeidis Raftapostolos |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a mixed frequency vector autoregressive (MF-VAR) model to produce nowcasts and historical estimates of monthly real state-level GDP for the 50 U.S. states, plus Washington DC, from 1964 through the present day. The MF-VAR model incorporates state and U.S. data at the monthly, quarterly, and annual frequencies. Temporal and cross-sectional constraints are imposed to ensure that the monthly state-level estimates are consistent with official estimates of quarterly GDP at the U.S. and state-levels. We illustrate the utility of the historical estimates in better understanding state business cycles and cross-state dependencies. We show how the model produces accurate nowcasts of state GDP three months ahead of the BEA's quarterly estimates, after conditioning on the latest estimates of U.S. GDP. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.04607 |
| By: | Scott Alan Carson; Scott A. Carson |
| Abstract: | The oil and gas industry’s early 2000’s fracking and horizontal drilling revolution realigned the industry and larger economies. This study uses New Growth Theory to evaluate innovation across an industry with various integrated but distinct upstream, midstream, and downstream units. Two issues are considered. First, how did Independent returns vary within the industry by equity, commodity, and distillate risks relative to Integrated majors before and after the fracking revolution? The fracking revolution changed within-group technology that favored Independent firms who outperformed larger Integrated producers. Second, how did upstream, midstream, and downstream risks vary across the industry by equity, commodity, and distillates relative to Integrated firms before and after the fracking revolution? Exploration & production across-group Independent equity return gaps with the fracking revolution increased the most for any Independent sector, either within or across decompositions, indicating that the greatest fracking industry realignment was in equity markets as participants increased upstream exploration & production returns closer to oil and gas extraction. |
| Keywords: | New Growth Theory, hydraulic-fracturing, technology, financial, commodity markets and technological change |
| JEL: | G12 L71 L72 O13 O14 Q40 Q41 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11534 |
| By: | Ángel de la Fuente |
| Abstract: | En esta nota se describe brevemente la última actualización de RegData, una base de datos que recoge los principales agregados económicos y demográficos de las regionales españolas durante las últimas siete décadas. En su mayoría, las series comienzan en 1950 o 1955 y se extienden hasta 2023. En años recientes, la información que ofrece RegData coincide con las últimas series oficiales que publica el INE. Estas series se enlazan con series oficiales anteriores y con otras fuentes con el fin de obtener series enlazadas homogéneas que se extienden hacia atrás tanto como ha sido posible. |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2025-01 |
| By: | Tossolini Lucas |
| Abstract: | Este artículo explora diferentes métodos estadísticos para construir una periodización del proceso inflacionario argentino que comenzó en los años ’40 y terminó a principios de los años ’90. Para esta tarea, se empleó la serie de inflación mensual entre 1935 y 2001, aplicando sobre ella métodos de residuos recursivos, prueba de Kapetanios y algoritmo PELT. Adicionalmente, se caracterizó cada período encontrado teniendo en cuenta el comportamiento de la inflación local en relación con la externa, las etapas de política de estabilización aplicadas, el comportamiento mensual de los pasivos monetarios reales y las variaciones del tipo de cambio real. Se llegó a la conclusión de que, luego del surgimiento del problema a fines de los ’40, se evidenció un largo período con una inflación estable en torno del 25% interanual, en el cual abundaron las políticas de estabilización de diversa índole. Luego, a principios de los ’70, la política se volvió más laxa, siendo el déficit público la causa última de una inflación creciente. Desde mediados de los ’80, la política intentó atacar la causa última de la inflación, primero sin éxito con el Plan Austral y, luego, exitosamente, con la Convertibilidad, desembocando en un último período de inflación decreciente. |
| JEL: | C22 N16 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4767 |
| By: | Matthew Turner; David N. Weil |
| Abstract: | Cities are often described as engines of economic growth. We assess this statement quantitatively. We focus on two mechanisms: a static agglomeration effect that makes production in bigger cities more efficient, and a dynamic effect whereby urban scale impacts the productivity of invention, which in turn determines the speed of technological progress for the country as a whole. Using estimates of these effects from the literature and MSA-level patent and population data since 1900, we ask how much lower US output would be in 2010 if city size had been limited to one million or one hundred thousand starting in 1900. These effects are small. If city sizes had been limited to one million people since 1900, output in 2010 would have been only 8% lower than its observed value. |
| JEL: | O40 R10 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33334 |
| By: | Hauer, Mathew; Hardy, Dean (University of Maryland College Park); Zagheni, Emilio; Jorgenson, Andrew |
| Abstract: | Rarely are those most impacted by climate change the same as those most responsible for global carbon emissions. Assignment of responsibility for carbon emissions typically differentiates emissions across space and time but not birth cohort. Including young birth cohorts complicates assessments as they have yet to emit as much as older cohorts. Using formal demographic methods, we develop an approach to estimate carbon emissions across space, across time, and across the life course, creating a unified carbon emissions identity, comparable to other well-known carbon identities. We estimate the birth cohorts born between 1850 and 2020 with the highest lifetime carbon emissions. We show that globally, cohorts born between 1970 and 1990 have the highest lifetime emissions under a moderate carbon emissions pathway and those born since 2000 under a high emissions pathway. Our results suggest that carbon emissions pathways play the strongest role in determining which cohorts will be associated with the highest lifetime carbon emissions, with lower pathways suggesting earlier cohorts and higher pathways suggesting later cohorts. |
| Date: | 2024–12–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:pv2n5 |
| By: | Ran Abramitzky; Lena Greska; Santiago Pérez; Joseph Price; Carlo Schwarz; Fabian Waldinger; Carlo Rasmus Schwarz |
| Abstract: | We explore how socio-economic background shapes academia, collecting the largest dataset of U.S. academics’ backgrounds and research output. Individuals from poorer backgrounds have been severely underrepresented for seven decades, especially in humanities and elite universities. Father’s occupation predicts professors’ discipline choice and, thus, the direction of research. While we find no differences in the average number of publications, academics from poorer backgrounds are both more likely to not publish and to have outstanding publication records. Academics from poorer backgrounds introduce more novel scientific concepts, but are less likely to receive recognition, as measured by citations, Nobel Prize nominations, and awards. |
| Keywords: | academics, socio-economic background, science, U.S. census |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11577 |
| By: | Brzezinski, Adam; Chen, Yao; Palma, Nuno; Ward, Felix |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of money supply changes on the real economy by exploiting a recurring natural experiment: maritime disasters in the Spanish Empire (1531–1810) that resulted in the loss of substantial amounts of silver money. We find that negative money supply shocks caused Spanish real output to decline. A transmission channel analysis highlights slow price adjustments and credit frictions as mechanisms through which money supply changes affected the real economy. Especially large output declines occurred in textile manufacturing against the backdrop of a credit crunch that impaired merchants’ ability to supply their manufacturers with inputs. |
| Keywords: | AAM requested |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2024–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125472 |
| By: | Millas Caputo Juan Francisco |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to assess the existence (and if so, estimate the magnitude) of a discriminatory bias against low-income and immigrant households in the context of the 1871 yellow fever epidemic in Buenos Aires. The argument presents the previous anecdotal evidence on discrimination based on socioeconomic outcomes and nationality from government-appointed commissioners, and proposes this investigation as an econometric approach that assesses and quantifies the existence of this phenomenon using historical data. The identification strategy consists of commissioner-level fixed-effects models to control for individual-specific unobservable variables and the inclusion the presence of unhygienic conditions as a control variable. The main takeaway is that, in line with previous anecdotal evidence presented by other authors, these households’ (conventillos) probability of being fined was 26 p.p. higher than other types of households and the monetary value of the fines they received were 323 $m/c (pesos moneda corriente) higher. |
| JEL: | J15 N36 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4745 |
| By: | Andrea Xamo (Department of Economics (University of Verona)); Roberto Ricciuti (Department of Economics (University of Verona)) |
| Abstract: | Italy, a latecomer country to industrialization, faced the hurdles of lacking coal in the age of steam. When the technology for long-distance electricity transmission became available, it invested heavily in hydropower. By 1911, 42.7% of Italy’s installed industrial power came from hydroelectricity. Using methodologies rooted in New Economic Geography (NEG) and factor endowment theories, we analyze the location of industrial activity across Italian provinces during the census years 1901 and 1911. We evaluate the influence of electric power as a distinct factor alongside traditional determinants such as market potential, human capital, and energy intensity. Our approach incorporates new data on GDP, literacy, and energy stocks, enabling a fine-grained analysis at the NUTS-3 level. Dependent variables include provincial shares of industrial employment and GDP, regressed on interactions between industrial and provincial characteristics. Baseline OLS findings highlight the role of electricity in industrial location, with its influence growing markedly between 1901 and 1911. Alternative specifications and instrumental variable techniques confirm these results, underscoring electricity’s transformative role in reducing Italy’s dependence on water-powered manufacturing. These findings align with broader interpretations of electrification’s role in enabling industrial diversification and regional economic development during the Second Industrial Revolution. |
| Keywords: | Electrification, industry location, Italian manufacturing, market potential, factor endowments, Liberal Italy. |
| JEL: | N73 N93 O18 R30 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ver:wpaper:01/2025 |
| By: | Deng, Kent; Shen, Jim Huangnan; Guo, Jingyuan |
| Abstract: | This article probes performance and mechanisms of the Maoist economy from 1950 to 1980, a period commonly regarded as a turning point that ushered in a bumpy but new path for China’s new economic fortune, including industrialisation and modernisation. Mao and his government have often been regarded as a developer and moderniser for China. This study questions it. To that end, the Maoist economy is re-conceptualised, re-examined, and re-assessed with qualitative and quantitative evidence including empirical modelling. The key findings suggest that the Maoist economy was a closed one with industrial dependence on agriculture in an urban-rural zero-sum. In the end, despite the official propaganda agriculture declined, industrial workforce stagnated, and the population was poor. This gloomy performance justified the post-Mao reforms and opening up, a game changer that put China on a very different trajectory of growth and development. |
| Keywords: | Maoism; closed economy; zero-sum; industrial dependence on agriculture |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2024–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124262 |
| By: | Sayan, Ramazan Caner; Bilgen, Arda; Kibaroğlu, Ayşegül |
| Abstract: | Moving beyond the purely material understanding of infrastructures, new perspectives in infrastructural regionalism assert that infrastructures and regions simultaneously shape each other. Drawing on this reciprocal relationship, we introduce the concept of ‘water regionalism’ to examine how regional factors, dynamics, and complexities shape water infrastructures, and how water infrastructures concurrently shape regions. Through qualitative research methodologies, we empirically demonstrate how this concept operates in practice by examining the history of regional planning and hydraulic infrastructure development in Turkey, particularly the process of how the South-eastern Anatolia Project (GAP) and the GAP region have shaped each other since the 1970s. |
| Keywords: | Euphrates and Tigris Basin; GAP; Turkey; water infrastructure; critical infrastructure studies; regionalism |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2024–11–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126296 |
| By: | Cathrin Mohr; Christoph Trebesch |
| Abstract: | We review the literature on geoeconomics, defined as the field of study that links economics and geopolitics (power rivalry). We describe what geoeconomics is and which questions it addresses, focusing on five main subfields. First, the use of geoeconomic policy tools such as sanctions and embargoes. Second, the geopolitics of international trade, especially recent work on coercion and fragmentation. Third, research on the geopolitics of international finance, which focuses on currency dominance and state-directed capital flows. Fourth, the literature on geopolitical risk and its spillovers to the domestic economy, e.g. on investments, credit, and inflation. Fifth, the economics of war, in particular research on trade and war and on military production. As geopolitical tensions grow, we expect the field to grow substantially in the coming years. |
| Keywords: | geoeconomics, geopolitics, political economy, power, trade, international finance, war, sanctions, coercion |
| JEL: | F01 P45 D74 H56 N40 F10 F20 F30 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11564 |
| By: | Spencer Hartnett, Allison; Saleh, Mohamed |
| Abstract: | Studies of colonialism often associate indirect colonial rule with continuity of the precolonial institutions. Yet, we know less about how colonialism affected the distribution of power between precolonial domestic elites within nominally continuous institutions. We argue that colonial authorities will redistribute power toward elites that are the most congruent with the colonizer’s objectives. We test our theory on the British occupation of Egypt in 1882. Using an original dataset on members of the Egyptian parliament and a difference-in-differences empirical strategy, we show that the colonial authorities shifted parliamentary representation toward the (congruent) landed elite and away from the (oppositional) rural middle class. This shift was greater in cotton-producing provinces which were more exposed to colonial economic interest. Our results demonstrate that the colonial redistribution of power within precolonial institutions can re-engineer the socialstructural fabric of colonized societies. |
| JEL: | P48 N45 |
| Date: | 2024–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125972 |
| By: | Kim, HyeJin; Peterson, Garry; Kim, Hyeonjeong; Kim, Sanha; Pereira, Laura; Cho, Youngcheol; Ahn, SoEun; Harrison, Paula A.; Kim, Junsoo; Koo, Kyung Ah |
| Abstract: | Korea's rapid economic development has positioned it as a key player in Asia's economy and globally, albeit with significant environmental and societal consequences. The Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), serving as a buffer between North and South Korea, holds immense historical, cultural, and ecological value and conservation and transformation potential. This study presents visioning-based exploration of ecologically diverse and peaceful futures of the Korean peninsula with its DMZ as a potential global commons. Through a visioning workshop, stakeholders used the Nature Futures Framework and Seeds of Good Anthropocene to develop four visions that reflect diverse value and meanings of nature for sustainable and wellbeing-oriented futures. The co-developed visions emphasize the importance of harmonizing human activities with nature, envisioning the DMZ as a space for peaceful coexistence and ecological restoration. They offer citizens’ perspectives on sustainable and inclusive futures with existing initiatives as levers and inter-sectoral and inter-disciplinary collaboration as mediums. This visioning highlights the role of science-policy-society interface, diverse stakeholder engagement, integration of history and culture, and convergence of ideas across generations. This paper reflects on the lessons from this process and the implications for the future development of scenarios that can identify policy options and societal transformations to catalyse nature-positive futures in Korea and beyond. |
| Date: | 2024–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:g3zb4 |
| By: | Galor, Oded (Brown University); Klemp, Marc (University of Copenhagen); Wainstock, Daniel Crisóstomo (Brown University) |
| Abstract: | This study reveals the pivotal impact of the prehistoric out-of-Africa migration on global variation in the degree of cultural diversity within ethnic and national populations. Drawing on novel diversity measures—encompassing folkloric and musical traditions among indigenous ethnic groups, as well as norms, values, and attitudes in modern societies—an intriguing pattern emerges: societies whose ancestors migrated farther from humanity's cradle in Africa exhibit lower cultural diversity. These striking findings underscore: (i) the profound role of cultural dynamics in shaping the enduring effects of the out-of-Africa migration on social cohesion, innovativeness, and living standards; (ii) the origins of persistent global variations in cultural expressions within an increasingly interconnected world; and (iii) the roots of variations in societal adaptability to evolving economic and technological landscapes. |
| Keywords: | diversity, culture, out-of-africa, folkloric diversity, musical diversity, social norms |
| JEL: | O10 Z10 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17481 |
| By: | Joanne Haddad; Lamis Kattan |
| Abstract: | By the end of the nineteenth century, labor legislation for women had become a prominent issue in the United States, with most states enacting at least one female-specific work regulation. We examine the impact of three previously unexplored legislation: seating, health and safety, and night-work regulations. Given that not all states adopted these laws, and the staggered nature of adoption, we rely on a difference-in-differences strategy design to estimate the effects on female gainful employment. Our findings indicate that laws regulating health and safety conditions and restricting women’s night work increased the likelihood of female employment by about 4% to 8%, accounting for about 10% to 20% from the total increase during our period of analysis. Examining heterogeneous effects reveals that younger and married women without children witnessed the largest increase in the likelihood of employment. We also document that native, higher-class and literate women were also incentivized to join the workforce. Women’s labor supply in the decades under consideration has been estimated to be quite inelastic with respect to own wage. Nevertheless, we find sizable labor force participation responses to the female-specific labor regulation we study. This indicates that the legislation must have shifted women’s labor supply curves, either because it made jobs more pleasant, or because it improved perceptions about how respectable it is for a woman to work in the labor market. Both channels would reduce disutility from work, and increase labor supply at any given wage level. Our findings hold important implications for policymakers and advocates seeking to promote gender equality in the labor market. |
| Keywords: | labor supply, labor law, gender law, gender norms |
| JEL: | J08 J16 J21 J24 J78 K31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11546 |
| By: | Gunther Schnabl; Taiki Murai |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the relationship between money and prices in Japan based on Fisher’s (1911) transactions version of the quantity theory of money. Money is defined as aggregate debt less net foreign assets. A general price index is constructed from consumer prices, real estate prices, stock prices, nominal wages and the nominal effective exchange rate. Evidence shows a high correlation between money growth and general price inflation for Japan from 1980 to 2022, supporting the view that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. The paper argues that Japan’s inflation has remained low since the 1990s because the policy mix of monetary and fiscal expansion led to the fall of private debt and the rise of government debt, resulting in a low money growth at the aggregate level. An exit from monetary and fiscal expansion would contribute to the recovery of private debt creation, which would restore the money, price and growth dynamics in Japan. |
| Keywords: | quantity theory of money, inflation, monetary policy |
| JEL: | E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11476 |
| By: | Matt Marx; Qian Wang; Emmanuel Yimfor |
| Abstract: | How do venture capital investors react to social movements, including those that relate to historical underrepresentation in funding? We use image and name algorithms combined with clerical review to classify race for 150, 000 founders and 30, 000 investors. These data allow us to assess the impact of George Floyd’s murder on VC funding of Black entrepreneurs and identify which VCs were most responsive. Although VCs responded swiftly, investment in Black-founded startups reverted to prior levels within two years. This temporary reaction was concentrated among those who had never previously invested in any Black entrepreneur. Moreover, the investors who responded were less likely to invest in more than one Black-founded startup and were less inclined to engage deeply by taking a board seat. Finally, it appears that the best Black entrepreneurs may have anticipated this “token” response, as they did not match with investors who had no experience funding Black startups. |
| JEL: | J15 M13 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33227 |
| By: | Llamas Paola |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the link between historical rice cultivation and the ‘math quality’ of institutions in Chinese provinces. To address potential endogeneity concerns, we use Rice Suitability as an instrumental variable for rice cultivation. We find strong evidence of causal relationship between historical rice cultivation and institutions ‘math quality’, even after addressing potential endogeneity concerns and micronumerosity issues. Our findings suggest a novel perspective over conventional determinants of educational quality and evidence of a new potential long-term effect of rice cultivation. |
| JEL: | B23 C36 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4741 |