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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Flores Zendejas, Juan; Nodari, Gianandrea; Dávalos, Jorge |
| Abstract: | What are the effects of political instability on the banking sector? This article examines the short-term impacts on banking activities in Mexico during the late 1920s, a decade marked by civil conflicts and political violence. Although political upheavals affected some regions more than others, banks and depositors were compelled to respond to a general atmosphere of political violence. Drawing on new qualitative and quantitative evidence, this article analyzes how banks and depositors behaved in the context of armed conflicts and assesses the consequences for the banking sector. Our results show a negative effect of political violence on bank deposits and banks' capitalization. We also account for the geographic proximity of violent regions to neighboring municipalities and observe that political instability promoted capital flight, particularly in the northern region of the country, where episodes of political violence were more severe. We conclude that political instability likely contributed to the lack of financial development in Mexico. |
| Keywords: | Political instability, Mexico, Banking fragility, Financial development, Political violence, Banking sector |
| JEL: | N16 N26 E58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gnv:wpaper:unige:180827 |
| By: | Helyette Geman |
| Abstract: | On Friday, March 10 -2023, the US and the world discovered that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) had seized the Silicon Valley Bank after SVB’s customers had withdrawn an extraordinary $42 billion from their deposits on March 16. This $4.2 billion an hour, or more than $1 million per second for ten straight hours, an unprecedented event made possible by the use of Apps by many startup founders to access their accounts and advise their friends to do the same -what the Chairman of the House of Financial Services Committee called ‘the first Twitter -fueled bank run’. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb_16-23 |
| By: | Hinh T. Dinh |
| Abstract: | Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the sixteenth largest bank in the United States, experienced a bank run in early March 2023, and was closed by the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Company (FDIC) on March 10. This bank failure, followed by others, creates fear of contagion throughout the U.S. and global banking systems. This Brief identifies four factors leading to the SVB crisis: i) Sharp interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, which adversely affected SVB’s income and balance sheet; ii) The failure of SVB’s management to manage maturity mismatches; iii) The failure of the regulatory and supervisory agencies in discovering the problems and fixing them; and iv) The failure of the 2018 revised Dodd-Frank regulations to subject mid-size banks such as SVB to the same rigorous requirements that large banks have to meet, such as stress tests. The Brief also discusses lessons from the crisis. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb_15-23 |
| By: | Kim, Dongjin |
| Abstract: | The population of Seoul had exploded from 1 million to 2.45 million in 7 years right after the end of the Korean War (from 1953 to 1960). Many parts of Seoul were converted into slum areas and aimless urbanisation lowered the quality of life in the Seoul metropolitan area. Pupils were excluded from education due to the lack of school infrastructure while citizens were exposed to crime and unemployment. In the middle of the population crisis, the metropolitan government of Seoul and the central government of South Korea paid attention to the potential of Gangnam as one of the candidate regions for the expansion of the Seoul metropolitan area. This review presents how Gangnam has transformed from an “empty land” to the “symbol of wealth” in the history of the Gangnam development and the expansion of the Seoul metropolitan area. The initial development plan tried to solve immediate housing problems derived from the lack of urban space and facility. After 20 years of the intensive development, Gangnam has transformed from a poor countryside region into the new economic centre and financial hub. Gangnam has become a symbol of wealth in South Korea where citizens and private companies would like to reside. On the other hand, many evictees lost their home and disappeared as nameless citizens behind the scenes of the development. The Gangnam-style development, the expertise of urban development acquired in Gangnam, can be thoroughly studied and transferred to other regions in South Korea and developing countries in the world, thus establishing Gangnam as a model case of metropolitan area expansion. Key words: construction, eviction, Gangnam, housing crisis, metropolitan area, Seoul, shantytowns, urban development |
| Date: | 2024–10–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:268zg |
| By: | Jad Moawad; Daniel Oesch |
| Abstract: | The public debate portrays the middle class as the big losers in recent decades, while people above and below seemingly fared better in terms of employment and income growth. This narrative is both conceptually and empirically flawed. Based on the Luxembourg Income Study 1980–2020, we show for France, Germany, Poland, Spain, the UK, and the US that middle-class employment expanded, while the working class shrank. The middle class also experienced consistently larger income gains than the working class over the past four decades. The disposable real incomes of working-class households in France, Germany or the US grew by less than half a percent per year, compared to 1% or more for the middle class. Cohort analysis also shows that the promise of doing better than one’s parents held for the middle class, but vanished for the working class. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:887 |
| By: | Lorenzo Incoronato; Salvatore Lattanzio |
| Abstract: | This paper studies a place-based industrial policy (PBIP) aiming to establish industrial clusters in Italy in the 1960s-70s. Combining historical archives spanning one century with administrative data and leveraging exogenous variation in government intervention, we investigate both the immediate effects of PBIP and its long-term implications for local development. We document agglomeration of workers and firms in the targeted areas persisting well after the end of the policy. By promoting high-technology manufacturing, PBIP favored demand for business services and the emergence of a skilled local workforce. Over time, this produced a spillover from manufacturing – the only sector targeted by the program – to services, especially in knowledge-intensive jobs. Accordingly, we estimate higher local wages, human capital, and house prices in the long run. We provide suggestive evidence that these persistent effects may depend on the initial conditions of targeted locations. |
| Keywords: | place-based industrial policy, employment, wages, agglomeration |
| JEL: | J24 N94 O14 O25 R58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11397 |
| By: | Tiago Camarinha Lopes (UFG - Universidade Federal de Goiás [Goiânia]) |
| Abstract: | Human-Centred Economics: The Living Standards of Nations, by Richard Samans, is a bold and optimistic book. Its main message stems from recognizing the crisis facing the global economy. The book argues that the dominant economic theory of the neoliberal era needs urgent revision and proposes a path that draws on a tradition of liberal thinkers who went far beyond a perspective solely focused on GDP growth. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04720791 |
| By: | Bart J. Wilson (Smith Institute for Political Economy and Philosophy & Economic Science Institute, Chapman University) |
| Abstract: | The wealth of the modern world is a natural historical marvel. Explaining it has traditionally been the purview of economic historians, as exemplified by the recent book How the World Became Rich by Mark Koyama and Jared Rubin. Economic historians, though, tend to only ask process-oriented “how†questions and “by what means†questions of the Great Enrichment. The eight co-authors of Explaining Technology, who are not economic historians, engage the debate asking a different question. Their goal is to explain the exponential shape of our enrichment with a model of the combinatorial evolution of technology. With an eye toward how we ask questions of the Great Enrichment, the essay proposes broadening our inquiries to include questions typically overlooked in modern economic science, namely, “What form does it take? and “For what purpose?†|
| Keywords: | economic growth, world GDP, Industrial Revoluton, technological progress |
| JEL: | A12 N10 O30 O40 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chu:wpaper:24-17 |
| By: | Bruno Caprettini (Universität St. Gallen - School of Economics and Political Sciences Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economic Research); Lorenzo Casaburi (Universität Zürich - Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakutält); Miriam Venturini (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside) |
| Abstract: | Governments often implement large-scale redistribution policies to gain enduring political support. However, little is known on whether such policies generate sizable gains, whether these gains are persistent, and why. We study the political consequences of a major land reform in Italy. A panel spatial regression discontinuity design shows that the reform generated large electoral gains for the incumbent Christian Democratic party. The electoral effects persist over four decades. We explore several channels and find that clientelist brokering and patronage are plausible mechanisms for this persistence. |
| Keywords: | redistribution, voting, clientelism, land reform, Italy |
| JEL: | P16 N44 Q15 D72 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucr:wpaper:202408 |
| By: | Dhammika Dharmapala |
| Abstract: | A substantial literature studies franchise extension, focusing primarily on class-based – rather than race-based – voting restrictions. This paper constructs and analyzes a novel dataset that codes the presence of race-based restrictions on voting in 131 jurisdictions over 1730-2000 (consisting primarily of English-speaking subnational jurisdictions with substantial power to determine their electoral law). It documents extensive variation in these restrictions over time and across jurisdictions. To explain this variation, the paper uses a framework that emphasizes the distinction between centralized imperial control versus the empowerment of local European settlers. A difference-in-difference analysis of the impact of US independence (using “Loyalist” British colonies in the Americas as a control group) suggests a substantial positive effect of US independence on the probability of a racially restrictive franchise. More generally, a stacked event study analysis implies that the independence of colonies of settlement (and, to a lesser extent, other forms of settler empowerment) had a substantial positive effect on the probability of a racially restrictive franchise. These results are robust to controlling for the existence and abolition of property qualifications for voting. They are consistent with a framework in which an imperial government is less subject to capture by local settler elites, and thus more likely to promote franchise extension than is an empowered local settler-dominated government. |
| Keywords: | voting, franchise extension, race, discrimination |
| JEL: | D72 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11347 |
| By: | Boutsen, Dag; Bourgeois, Carl; D'hont, Ruben; Mugumaoderha, Mac C. |
| Abstract: | This working paper introduces La très grande maquette as the first visual model to pragmatically explore Bukavu's projected urban expansion, contextualizing its growth challenges and potential through historical and architectural analysis. |
| Keywords: | Kivu, Bukavu, urbanism, architecture |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iob:wpaper:2024.08 |
| By: | Wouters, Olivier J.; Kesselheim, Aaron S.; Kuha, Jouni; Luyten, Jeroen |
| Abstract: | Objectives: This study aimed to analyze worldwide sales of new therapeutic agents and to estimate the time it takes for product sales to exceed industry-wide average drug development costs. Methods: Data obtained from company reports were analyzed to track worldwide sales of new medicines approved by the US Food and Drug Administration from 1995 to 2014. All sales figures were reported in 2019 US dollars. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to evaluate the time it took for discounted product sales to exceed the average costs associated with developing 1 new drug (accounting for the costs of failed trials), using published estimates of these costs. Results: Based on data for 361 of 558 new therapeutic agents approved over the study period (median follow-up 13.2 years), mean sales revenue per product was $15.2 billion through the end of 2019; the median was $6.7 billion. These products jointly generated global sales of $5.5 trillion since approval. Revenues were highly skewed, with the 25 best selling products (7%, 25 of 361) accounting for 38% of this amount ($2.1 trillion of $5.5 trillion). Approximately 47% of products had discounted sales that exceeded the estimated industry-wide average costs of development within 5 years of approval, and 75% within 10 years. After attributing potential production, marketing, and other costs, these numbers dropped to 21% of products within 5 years of approval, and 46% within 10 years. Conclusions: Sales of new medicines approved from 1995 to 2014 were highly skewed, but many products had net discounted sales that exceeded the industry-wide average costs of development within 10 years of approval. An understanding of how sales revenues accrue in the years after initial approval, alongside data on business costs, can inform discussions about how to incentivize private investment in innovation while ensuring affordable prices for patients and the healthcare system. |
| Keywords: | pharmaceutical policy; drug prices; research and development; revenues |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2024–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:123955 |
| By: | Evek Gangwar |
| Abstract: | This research critically examines Bhimrao Ramji Ambedkar’s seminal works, ‘The Annihilation of Caste’ and ‘Caste in India: Their Mechanism, Genesis, and Development’. Ambedkar’s writings offer a profound critique of the caste system in India, highlighting its deeprooted socio-economic and psychological impacts. This study explores the historical context, underlying mechanisms, and the persistent challenges posed by caste-based discrimination. It also delves into Ambedkar’s proposed reforms and their relevance in contemporary India. Through this analysis, the project aims to contribute to a better understanding of caste dynamics and the ongoing struggle for social justice. In India: Their Mechanism, Genesis, and Development’, he systematically dissects the origins and functioning of the caste system, providing a historical and sociological perspective that underscores the complexities involved. This project not only analyzes Ambedkar’s works but also reflects on their enduring significance in modern India. The caste system, despite legal prohibitions, continues to affect millions of lives, making Ambedkar’s insights and solutions as relevant today as they were during his lifetime. Ambedkar’s ‘The Annihilation of Caste’ provides a scathing critique of the Hindu social order, challenging the very foundations of caste and advocating for its complete eradication. Key words: Critical Analysis, Ambedkar, Bhim Rao, Bhim Rao Ambedkar, Dalits, The Anhilation of Caste |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2024-51-03 |
| By: | Anton Galeev (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The paper discusses Yuli Zhukovsky’s 1864 article “Smithian Direction and Positivism in Economics”, one of the first research in methodology of political economy in Russia. Zhukovsky contrasts the abstract theorising of classical economists like Adam Smith and David Ricardo with the empiricism of his contemporaries like Henry Macleod. Zhukovsky advocates for a deductive, universal approach in economic theory, emphasising the importance of abstract models to explain economic phenomena. His interpretation of Smith aligns with modern views on classical political economy, focusing on the formation of theoretical systems from empirical facts. |
| Keywords: | classical political economy, economic methodology, Adam Smith, Yuli Zhukovsky, deduction, abstraction |
| JEL: | B12 B41 B31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:270/ec/2024 |
| By: | Nathan Lane |
| Abstract: | I study the impact of industrial policy on industrial development by considering an important episode during the East Asian miracle: South Korea’s heavy and chemical industry (HCI) drive, 1973–1979. Based on newly assembled data, I use the introduction and termination of industrial policies to study their impacts during and after the intervention period. (1) I reveal that the heavy-chemical industrial policies promoted the expansion and dynamic comparative advantage of directly targeted industries. (2) Using variation in exposure to policies through the input-output network, I demonstrate that policy indirectly benefited down-stream users of targeted intermediates. (3) The benefits of HCI persisted even after it ended, some of which took time to manifest. These findings suggest that the temporary drive shifted Korean manufacturing into more advanced markets and supported durable change. This study helps clarify the lessons drawn from the East Asian growth miracle. |
| Keywords: | industrial policy, East Asian miracle, economic history, industrial development, Heavy-Chemical Industry Drive, Heavy and Chemical Industry Drive |
| JEL: | L50 O14 O25 N60 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11388 |
| By: | Alexandre Chirat; Ulysse Lojkine |
| Abstract: | We investigate the concept of economic power in the three main paradigms of economic thinking in the 20th century: neoclassical, marxist and institutionalist. We propose a reconstruction, based on a new taxonomy, of the various forms of power conceptualized by each of them. In particular, we claim that the neoclassical paradigm contains a consistent although often implicit theory of power. We then show that many controversies between these paradigms were debates on power and that some shifts in mainstream economics in the 1970s and 1980s are a reaction to the criticisms leveled against the neoclassical conceptualization of power. |
| Keywords: | Power – Markets – Consumer sovereignty – History of economics |
| JEL: | B20 B40 L00 P00 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2024-31 |
| By: | Jackson, Bella |
| Abstract: | The Age of Mass Migration saw unprecedented flows of Italian migrants to the US and Argentina, mostly directed to NYC and Buenos Aires. Droller, Fizsbein and Pérez claim that Italians in Argentina were more skilled than those in America. If so, why did higher-skilled Italians move to Argentina over America when real wages were higher in America than Argentina? I assemble datasets using Argentine and American censuses and wage data to compare literacy rates and occupational compositions of Italian immigrants between these countries and cities. I create a regression model to contrast the returns to skills between Italians in Argentina and America and I determine skill premia for both Italian cohorts using income data. I find that Italian immigrants in Argentina were more skilled than Italian immigrants in America, due to higher literacy rates and a higher-skilled occupational composition. I argue that the skill scarcity in Argentina, and higher returns to skills and skill premia than America, explains the greater appeal of Argentina for skilled Italian migrants. I stress the importance of considering returns to skills and skill premia when studying migratory flows between destination countries. |
| Keywords: | gender pay gap; gender equality; economic growth; human development; South Korean growth; marital status; trade unions |
| JEL: | J24 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–10–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125829 |
| By: | Yannick Bury; Lars P. Feld; Heiko T. Burret |
| Abstract: | Marginal rates of contribution (MRC), i.e., the rates at which additional revenues are skimmed via larger contributions or lower transfer receipts, quantify the incentives of a fiscal equalization scheme. The present paper is the first to calculate marginal rates of contribution for the Laender (states) in the German fiscal equalization scheme for each of the 51 years since its establishment in 1970 and over five major reforms, taking into account all relevant revenues. Our results show that MRC have been at a consistently high level. Until 2019 the scheme induced an almost full skimming of additional tax revenues of recipient states. With the system’s latest reform in 2020, MRC increased further. Recipient states now face an over-skimming of additional tax revenues and thus, massive fiscal disincentives to maintain their own tax base. While these findings have been widely expected, comprehensive evidence has been missing so far. |
| Keywords: | fiscal equalization, marginal contribution rates, constitutional reform |
| JEL: | H71 H73 H77 H11 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11293 |
| By: | Kenneth S. Rogoff; Barbara Rossi; Paul Schmelzing |
| Abstract: | Utilizing critical recent data advances, we analyze empirical evidence on long-run samples of short-maturity real interest rates as well as term spreads based on multi-century data. In contrast to an extensive literature on short-maturity real interest rates over the past few decades, we find strong and consistent evidence of trend stationarity in long horizon series, relatively fast adjustment speeds, and a paucity of structural breaks – results that we show to survive out of sample tests. The use of very long-run data offers a fresh perspective for ongoing monetary policy debates surrounding r*, and also provides a crucial missing link to reconstructing the long-run properties of term spreads. On balance and against limited post-COVID data, our evidence suggests caution on the idea of a break in short-term real interest rate behavior and instead points to elements of continuity over very long time periods. Relatedly, we show that term spreads are secularly rising while inflation volatility trends in the exact opposite direction – a finding questioning the emphasis of influential term structure models. |
| JEL: | F3 N20 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33079 |
| By: | Giulio Cifarelli; Paolo Paesani |
| Abstract: | The French franc variability of the 1920-1926 time interval is often attributed to irrational speculation. A common view is that French investors, disregarding fundamentals, were prone to export their funds in response to adverse financial/political news, destabilizing in this way the exchange rate. Our analysis, based on a new dataset, qualifies these results. The estimates of a Markov-switching Heterogeneous Agents Model strongly support the hypothesis that informed speculators relied on the relative purchasing power parity paradigm and drove the short run exchange rate dynamics, bandwagon effects being but short lived. In line with previous analyses the impact of additional explanatory variables, real and financial, turns out to be rather limited. |
| Keywords: | Gold Standard, HAM French Franc pricing, Markov Switching |
| JEL: | C32 F31 F33 G15 N24 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2024_24.rdf |
| By: | Mohamed Bassi |
| Abstract: | Ce Policy Brief scrute la recherche économique en Afrique en se basant sur des données de la plateforme RePEc (Research Papers in Economics). Il étudie la productivité des chercheurs affiliés aux institutions africaines, dont certains sont très prolifiques , alors que la moyenne observée au niveau du continent demeure en deçà des normes internationales. Il en résulte que la contribution de l'Afrique à la recherche économique mondiale demeure modeste malgré les enjeux économiques significatifs du continent. Le Papier se penche par la suite sur les thèmes de recherche dominants grâce à l'analyse des codes NEP et JEL, ainsi qu'à l'examen des titres et des mots-clés associés aux publications. Il révèle que les chercheurs en économie en Afrique ont des priorités de recherche distinctes en fonction de leurs affiliations institutionnelles, certains se concentrent sur des questions africaines, tandis que d'autres se focalisent sur des sujets d'importance globale. |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pb_37-23 |
| By: | Federico Etro; Elena Stepanova |
| Abstract: | We study art trade in New York between 1870 and 1970, analyzing returns on investment by the renowned Knoedler gallery to shed light on the evolution of the American art market. A generalist art gallery should allocate investments to equalize their expected returns, with differences in effective returns depending on purchase prices, number of traded works per artists, search costs and shocks. We confirm these principles and find that the returns were higher in booms, after the death of artists or solo exhibitions at the gallery, and lower for artworks in stock for a longer time. A main interest in the story of the leading gallery of New York is in its intertwining with the history of American art over a century. We find that the returns on European old masters follow an inverse-U shape with a peak during WWI and a subsequent decline, while the returns on American modern artists keep increasing for the entire century: this is consistent with a shift in demand toward American art that was instrumental to promote the development of the New York school. |
| Keywords: | Art dealing, Art collectors, American art |
| JEL: | Z11 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2024_21.rdf |
| By: | Thomas Palley |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of different varieties of capitalism (VoC) on societal happiness. It begins with a critique of Neoclassical welfare economics which emphasizes Pareto optimality, and it argues for focusing on reported societal happiness. The paper identifies five VoC. Using a sample of twenty-six high-income countries drawn from the 2020 World Happiness Report, the paper shows societal happiness is systematically impacted by variety of capitalism type. Social Democratic economies report higher happiness levels. The US benefits from its standing as global economic hegemon, but it still reports lower happiness than Liberal and Social Democratic economies owing to its adverse societal relations. The public policy implication is the Social Democratic variety of capitalism produces greater societal happiness. More generally, happiness analysis can fill a gap in VoC theory and strengthen it by providing an operational form of welfare analysis. Making happiness the focus of attention will also likely change how economists interpret economies, which stands to change both economic theory and policy. |
| Keywords: | Happiness, varieties of capitalism, US hegemon, Liberal, Social Democratic, East Asian, Mediterranean Corporatist |
| JEL: | D6 P0 P1 P5 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:fmmpap:108-2024 |
| By: | Gerken, William; Irlbeck, Steven; Painter, Marcus; Zhang, Guangli |
| Abstract: | The Securities and Exchange Commission's investigative process remains opaque and challenging to study due to limited observability. Leveraging de-identified smartphone geolocation data, we provide new insights into the SEC's monitoring practices by tracking SEC-associated devices that visit firm headquarters. Our findings reveal that the majority of SEC visits occur outside of formal investigations, with larger firms and those with a history of SEC enforcement actions being more frequently visited. These visits often cluster within industries. Notably, the SECassociated devices venture to firms both within and outside their own regions. On average, these visits are material, evidenced by significant stock price reactions, even in the absence of subsequent formal investigations or enforcement actions. Last, we observe a chilling effect on insider behavior around these SEC interactions; insiders are less likely to sell around visits. However, when sales do occur, insiders avoid substantial losses. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cbscwp:305300 |
| By: | Heaney, Tiarnán |
| Abstract: | A large literature argues that resource constraints inhibit human capital accumulation. We test this hypothesis using the introduction of the Old Age Pension in Ireland in 1908, evaluating its spillover on school enrolments within multigenerational households. Exploiting the OAP's age-based and means-test criteria, we identify the causal effect of the cash transfer on enrolments for children aged 14 to 16 using data from the 1901 and 1911 Censuses of Ireland. The OAP increased the school enrolments of the poorest children by 8 per cent, while no effect is detected for wealthier households. This suggests that when poverty constrains schooling, unconditional cash transfers amplify a household's demand for education by reducing the opportunity costs of schooling. |
| Keywords: | schooling, poverty, old age pension, cash transfer, human capital, economic history of Ireland |
| JEL: | D31 H55 I25 J18 J24 N33 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:305271 |
| By: | Yuchen Guo; Matthew O. Jackson; Ruixue Jia |
| Abstract: | We examine how peers influence the allegiances of West Point cadets in the American Civil War. Specifically, we analyze how quasi-random variations in the proportion of cadets from northern (low-slave) states influenced the decisions of cadets in choosing which army to join. A higher proportion of classmates from low-slave states significantly increased the likelihood that cadets from high-slave states joined the Union Army, while almost all cadets from low-slave states joined the Union Army (if they decided to join the war). Additionally, the higher the fraction of the population that were slaves in a cadet’s home state the lower the likelihood that the cadet joined the Union and the lower the peer influence. We also examine how cadets’ decisions affected their military rank and career outcomes. Our results highlight the importance of peer influence in major life decisions, particularly at critical historical junctures. |
| JEL: | D81 D85 I28 N31 N41 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33093 |
| By: | Xu, Tao Louie |
| Abstract: | This research constructs the duality-oriented political settlements framework through structuration theory. With immense conflicts and inequality of global development, the underlying power distribution and institutional evolution in the South, however, are not fully elucidated due to the dualism-driven disagreements. With the duality of structure, our research investigates the dialectical structure-agency relationship in socio-political interaction, mediating dualism into the power structuration process, followed by a case examination of the Peiyang Republic of China 1912–1928. The results illustrate that the duality-oriented framework settles the limitations on account of static power structure and convoluted agency. The findings reveal the evolving nature of political settlements, whereby institutions are used and reconstituted by the praxes of agents. Analysing the interaction between power agents and structures, this research reinterprets political settlements as dynamic reproduction of power systems for broader development and conflict studies. |
| Date: | 2024–10–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:nmvhq |
| By: | Olivo, Victor |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of this paper is to reexamine the relationship between money growth and inflation using a large (unbalanced) panel of 133 countries for the period 1961-2022. The data is split into three subcategories of countries, three subperiods of time, and two intervals of the inflation rate. Applying panel data estimation techniques, I find that money growth continues to be a fundamental variable for understanding the behavior of inflation. Although the impact of money growth on inflation diminishes at lower inflation rates, it is still statistically significant at these lower levels, and it increases markedly when inflation moves beyond the 20 percent threshold. Additionally, there is not an evident reduction in the influence of money growth on inflation in the last thirty years in comparison with the preceding thirty-year period. Finally, I found some evidence that suggests that inflation and money growth might have a negative impact on output growth in the long run. |
| Keywords: | Aggregate price levels, inflation, money supply, money growth, output growth. |
| JEL: | E31 E51 |
| Date: | 2024–10–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122587 |
| By: | Elin Colmsjoe (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | This study explores how intergenerational inter vivos transfers influence the longrun wealth accumulation of individuals by supporting investments in housing and private business wealth early in the life cycle. A unique Danish policy setting allows me to identify untaxed wealth transfers channeled through housing market entries. Utilizing plausibly exogenous variation in transfer amounts, I find that transfers lead to significant growth in housing wealth, increased business ownership, and higher firm revenues among recipients over the subsequent ten years. The effects are underpinned by greater credit access and lower interest rates stemming from parents’ financial support. Benefits of transfers are more pronounced at younger ages, indicating that their timing in the life cycle matters to lifelong wealth building. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational transmission; wealth; inter vivos transfers; entrepreneurship; Credit |
| JEL: | C14 D11 C78 |
| Date: | 2024–08–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kucebi:2402 |
| By: | Charles Yuji Horioka (Center for Computational Social Science and Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Asian Growth Research Institute, National Bureau of Economic Research, and Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | The primary objective of this paper is to explore the determinants of the level of, and trends over time in, Japan's household saving rate, with emphasis on the impact of the age structure of the population, and to make projections about future trends therein. The paper finds that Japan's household saving rate has not always been high either absolutely or relative to other countries, contrary to popular belief, and that, if we confine ourselves to the postwar period, it was only during the 25-year period from 1961 to 1986 that it exceeded 15%. Past and future trends in Japan's household saving rate can largely be explained by changes in the age structure of her population, but declines in the saving rate of retired elderly households is a more important explanation for the recent decline in the household saving rate. However, it is likely that other factors such as the unavailability of consumer credit, the unavailability of social safety nets, high rates of economic (income) growth, tax breaks for saving, saving promotion policies, and high and rising land and housing prices are also partial explanations for why Japan's aggregate household saving rate was so high during the 1961-86 period and why it declined so much subsequently. As for future trends in Japan's aggregate household saving rate, it is likely to fall even further though not necessarily at a rapid rate. |
| Keywords: | Age structure of the population; Household consumption; Household saving; Japanese economy; Life-cycle hypothesis; Population ageing; Public pensions; Saving promotion; Social safety nets; Wealth accumulation |
| JEL: | D10 D11 D12 D14 D15 D64 E21 H55 J14 J26 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2024-36 |
| By: | M. V. Tamm; M. Oiva; K. D. Mukhina; M. Mets; M. Schich |
| Abstract: | Cultural data typically contains a variety of biases. In particular, geographical locations are unequally portrayed in media, creating a distorted representation of the world. Identifying and measuring such biases is crucial to understand both the data and the socio-cultural processes that have produced them. Here we suggest to measure geographical biases in a large historical news media corpus by studying the representation of cities. Leveraging ideas of quantitative urban science, we develop a mixed quantitative-qualitative procedure, which allows us to get robust quantitative estimates of the biases. These biases can be further qualitatively interpreted resulting in a hermeneutic feedback loop. We apply this procedure to a corpus of the Soviet newsreel series 'Novosti Dnya' (News of the Day) and show that city representation grows super-linearly with city size, and is further biased by city specialization and geographical location. This allows to systematically identify geographical regions which are explicitly or sneakily emphasized by Soviet propaganda and quantify their importance. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.15938 |
| By: | Jakub Sowula; Franziska Gehrig; Lyle Scruggs; Martin Seeleib-Kaiser; Gabriela Ramalho Tafoya |
| Abstract: | This article highlights the limitations of unidimensional analyses in the comparative welfare state literature and emphasises the need for a more holistic, multidimensional approach incorporating welfare state inputs, outputs, and outcomes. To illustrate the utility of a multidimensional approach, we examine the long-term welfare state trajectories of Sweden and Germany, prototypical social-democratic and conservative welfare states, respectively, and compare them against the baseline of Europe's prototypical liberal welfare state, the United Kingdom. The input (expenditure) and output (generosity) allowed us to identify significant changes in the Swedish welfare state (i.e., retrenchment). The outcome dimension alerts us to a policy drift in the German Welfare State, as relatively stable public spending and welfare generosity until the first half of the 2000s were nonetheless associated with sharply increased inequality and poverty. Overall, our findings suggest that a holistic, multidimensional approach is necessary to fully understand the complexities of welfare state change and continuity, as focusing solely on one dimension can lead to analytical misjudgements. The sharp rise in inequality and poverty across countries raises doubts about whether policymakers and researchers rely too much on outdated assumptions of normality that fail to meet the welfare state realities of today. |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:863 |
| By: | Hisham Aidi |
| Abstract: | Considering the current situation in Burkina Faso, the international media is speaking of institutional weakness and state failure in Africa and the role of international institutions and local non-state actors in providing security and public goods in the Sahel. The discourse of state failure and counter-state sovereignty has a decades-old genealogy, but recent work by African scholars has sought to contest top-down Western labels and categories. African attempts to decolonize social science research began shortly after independence in the 1960s. Yet, lately, scholars like Ugandan sociologist Sylvia Tamale have taken the critique of Western knowledge production in a new direction. As French Special Forces prepare to depart Burkina Faso, commentators have begun speculating that the Russian mercenary group Wagner will be arriving to assist the Burkinabe leader Captain Ibrahima Traore in countering a ten-year Islamist insurgency that has displaced an estimated two million people. 1 Once again, the media is speaking of institutional weakness and state failure in Africa and the role of international institutions and local non-state actors in providing security and public goods in the Sahel. As we show below, the discourse of state failure and the rebel/Jihadi governance model has a decades- old genealogy. However, recent work by African scholars has sought to contest top-down labels and Western categories. African attempts to decolonize social science research began shortly after independence in the 1960s, and scholars like Ugandan sociologist Sylvia Tamale have taken the critique of Western knowledge production in a new direction. |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb_07_23 |
| By: | Piglia, Melina |
| Abstract: | Repasa el derrotero del conjunto de la aviación comercial desde las primeras empresas hasta su absorción por el Estado y la conformación, en 1950, de Aerolíneas Argentinas; su expansión, su privatización en los 90 y su renacionalización en el presente siglo y, en paralelo, el resurgimiento desde 1956 en adelante de las compañías privadas, con sucesivas fases de auge, crisis y retracción, hasta la más reciente aparición de las líneas "low cost". |
| Keywords: | Aviación; Transporte Aéreo; Líneas Aéreas; Historia; Argentina; 1929-2019; |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:4193 |
| By: | Claridge, Jordan; Delabastita, Vincent; Gibbs, Spike |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the prevalence of in-kind wages in medieval labour markets and the underlying reasons for their use. Using a new dataset of agricultural labourers in medieval England, we demonstrate that, until the late fourteenth century, wages were recorded anonymously and most remuneration was done through in-kind payment. From the 1370s, however, labour remuneration shifted increasingly to cash and workers began to be named individually in the accounts which recorded their wages. We argue that these changes reveal a fundamental shift in labour relations in late medieval England, providing new empirical insights into the ‘golden age of labour’ that followed the Black Death. |
| Keywords: | (in-kind) wages; medieval economy; labour markets; labour relations |
| JEL: | J33 J42 N33 N53 |
| Date: | 2024–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125597 |
| By: | Heise, Arne |
| Abstract: | The article discusses the ongoing debate about a potential paradigm shift in eco-nomics. Institutions like the Institute for New Economic Thinking, the New Economics Foundation, and the Forum New Economy have been established to foster new approaches to understanding and transforming economies. While some main-stream economists see this as a significant and positive change, many heterodox economists remain sceptical, recalling past failed revolutions in economic thought, like the 'Keynesian revolution'. The article examines whether purported changes in economic policy indicate a true paradigm shift in the scientific sense (à la Kuhn) or just variations within the existing neoclassical framework. Despite some studies suggesting a paradigm shift is underway, it is argued that these shifts in policy do not necessarily stem from fundamental changes in economic theory. Instead, they represent swings within the dominant paradigm, such as the rise of behavioural or Schumpeterian economics, rather than a complete overhaul of the discipline. The article concludes that while mainstream economics may become more diverse, this should not be mistaken for a revolutionary change. Heterodox economists must continue to advocate for broader acceptance and genuine transformation in the discipline, rather than assuming that time alone will bring about such changes. |
| Keywords: | New Economics, paradigm shift, Post Keynesianism, heterodox economics |
| JEL: | B40 B51 B52 E11 E12 E13 E14 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cessdp:305296 |
| By: | Grillitsch, Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University); Asheim, Björn (University of Stavanger) |
| Abstract: | The chapter discusses the theoretical reorientation in economic geography over the last twenty years from a focus on structures, represented by regional innovation systems, to addressing the role of human agency in regional economic development, and reflects on what the two approaches can contribute to achieving sustainable regional restructuring. We are doing this by focusing on two articles – published in 2002 and 2022 - representing the two approaches. The 2002 article discusses the role of place-specific, local resources and external knowledge in strengthening the competitiveness and innovativeness of firms and regions. This perspective is still relevant in analyses and designs of regional innovation policies. However, a realisation of the shortcomings of a structural approach to explaining the variations of regional development outcomes in different types of regions, has led to a more explicit focus on the importance of change agency in regional change processes, as articulated in the 2022 article. |
| Keywords: | Regional innovation systems; human change agency; regional restructuring; sustainability challenges; local and global; innovation policy |
| JEL: | O30 R10 |
| Date: | 2024–10–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2024_013 |
| By: | Renato P. Colistete |
| Abstract: | This article presents new estimates of the number of enslaved workers, immigrants, and nationals employed in coffee production in the province of São Paulo during the years 1886-1887, just a few months before the Abolition and the beginning of mass European immigration. Drawing on slave labor, the expansion of coffee in the Paraíba Valley and the new areas of western São Paulo also incorporated different forms of free labor, whose numbers, distribution, and importance, however, remain an enigma and a subject of divergent and even opposing views. The main challenge is the scarcity – or lack – of quantitative data on each group of workers, especially in the case of free labor. This difficulty is exacerbated because the proportion of enslaved, immigrants, and nationals engaged in coffee cultivation may have varied substantially between different regions and periods of coffee expansion in São Paulo. As an alternative, this article adapts the method used by Van Delden Laërne (Brazil and Java, 1885) to estimate the distribution of the workforce on rural properties, using a variety of sources and data – such as the 1886 provincial census, the 1887 slave register (“matrícula de escravos†), reports from railway companies and farm records, as well as information from contemporary observers. The estimates indicate that, in 1886-1887, just over half of the labor force in São Paulo’s coffee agriculture was composed of enslaved workers. Thus, while the slave labor regime continued to be predominant on the province’s coffee farms, free labor (including freedmen) played a significant role on the eve of the Abolition and even before the Great Immigration began in the early months of 1887. The composition of this free labor was not limited to European immigrants. On the contrary, the importance of Brazilian workers appears to have been even greater than that of immigrants across the coffee farms of the time. The distribution of coffee labor also varied between regions, according to the timing of agricultural frontier expansion, with western São Paulo exhibiting a relative participation of enslaved workers in coffee cultivation almost identical to that of the Paraíba Valley. What distinguished the two traditional regions was the composition of free labor: in the older region, nationals made up almost half of the workforce engaged in coffee, while in the West free labor was distributed approximately equally between immigrants and nationals. In the new areas of coffee agriculture in the New West and the Frontier zones, with a relatively smaller number of immigrants and nationals, enslaved workers composed the dominant workforce until the beginning of the Great Immigration in 1887 and the collapse of slavery. |
| Keywords: | Coffee agriculture; Enslaved workers; Immigrants; Nationals; São Paulo; 1886-1887 |
| JEL: | N56 N36 N96 |
| Date: | 2024–11–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spa:wpaper:2024wpecon27 |
| By: | Simson, Rebecca; Mahmoudzadeh, Mina |
| Abstract: | This chapter uses a novel data source – probate records – to develop an original account of the scale of the racial wealth divide in South Africa and its geographic dimensions. The results provide a sobering perspective on the scale of the racial wealth divide 30 years after the end of Apartheid. We estimate that 45% of White South African adults own inheritable wealth of at least R.250, 000, compared to 3% of Black, 9% of Coloured, and 23% of Asian South Africans, and these gaps have narrowed only modestly between 2009 and 2019. We compare these results to estimates from survey data and discuss the nature of the probate source biases and interpretation. We also show that Black South Africans leaving estates are primarily dwellers in former Apartheid-era townships, and to a lesser extent, Homelands, with 42% resident in townships and 17% in Homelands at death, suggesting that this Black formal wealth-owning upper-middle class are predominantly the owners of assets acquired during the Apartheid-era. This points to the limited extent to which South Africa’s Black upper and middle classes have bought into the historically White-owned asset stock. It also suggests that, much as in other parts of the world, the wealth distribution beyond the apex owes much to the structure of home ownership and geographically uneven house price appreciation. |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–11–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125939 |
| By: | Brian J. Asquith (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research); Evan Mast (University of Notre Dame) |
| Abstract: | Local population decline has spread rapidly since 1970, with half of counties losing population between 2010 and 2020. The workhorse economic models point to net out-migration, likely driven by changing local economies and amenities, as the cause of this trend. However, we show that the share of counties with high net out-migration has not increased. Instead, falling fertility has caused migration rates that used to generate growth to instead result in decline. When we simulate county populations from 1970 to the present holding fertility at its initial level, only 10 percent of counties decline during the 2010s. |
| Keywords: | fertility, population decline, migration, counties, simulations |
| JEL: | J11 J13 N92 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:24-406 |
| By: | Chee, Liberty (Ca' Foscari University of Venice) |
| Abstract: | After nearly half a century, domestic workers were again tabled on the agenda of the International Labour Conference in 2008. Three short years later, Conference delegates voted to establish the International Labour Organization’s Convention on Domestic Work (C189). This paper builds on the insight that the campaign to push for C189 was taken up by a feminist “velvet triangle”. These networks are usually comprised of women in social movements, femocrats and academics. The informality of these alliances is due, in part, to the gendered marginality of an issue area, allowing for improvisation and agile coalitions. The paper traces the origins of this triangle to bottom-up calls to develop measurement methodologies to make women’s labour “visible” in the UN Conferences on Women, and later in discussions about the informal economy. It then examines the relations among femocrats in the ILO, academics, and the global trade unions in one important element of the campaign – mobilising statistics on domestic workers worldwide. The paper demonstrates how the production and mobilisation of statistical estimates were crucial in making the sector more tractable. It attends to the under-explored effects of the “power of cognitive resources” in the literature. Finally, the article shows that the explicitly political project of the women’s movements yielded not only a normative labour instrument, but advances in different fields of study. This case shows that the production of scientific knowledge, while still an overwhelmingly elite endeavour, need not always cater to elite demands. |
| Date: | 2024–10–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9fbu7 |
| By: | Miriam Venturini (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside) |
| Abstract: | Can exposing corruption have unintended negative consequences? I tackle this question in the context of labor unions in the U.S., where the U.S. Senate McClellan Committee (1957-1960) publicly exposed corruption and organized crime infiltrations in their ranks. Using a difference-in-differences identification strategy and novel data, I examine the consequences of the Committee’s investigation on unionization, the capacity of unions to mobilize voters during elections, and their ability to influence public policy. I study both the direct effects of the investigation in areas where investigated union locals were present and the indirect effects (or spillovers) in areas where no investigated union locals were present. First, I find that the negative spillover effects on unionization were stronger than the direct effects. Second, I show that the investigation caused a persistent decrease in the capacity of unions to foster voters' political participation in presidential elections. Finally, I provide evidence suggesting that the spillovers are at least partially explained by a large-scale news and reputation shock that had negative consequences on the entire American labor movement. |
| Keywords: | labor unions, corruption, turnout |
| JEL: | J50 J51 D72 D73 N32 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucr:wpaper:202407 |
| By: | Cisil Sarisoy |
| Abstract: | Option-implied volatilities of U.S. short-term interest rates have risen sharply since late 2021, reaching their highest levels in over a decade. Although these measures declined moderately since early 2023, they remain at around the 70th percentile of their historical distribution. This note links the implied volatility of short-term interest rates to macroeconomic uncertainty and highlights two fundamental drivers of short-term interest rate volatility over the past 30 years: inflation uncertainty and growth uncertainty. |
| Date: | 2024–10–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2024-10-24 |
| By: | Tsiflikidou, Ioanna-Maria; METAXAS, THEODORE |
| Abstract: | This study aims to review major economic crises throughout the centuries, in order to see what valuable lessons can be learned from re-examining them. As the 20th century was marked by tremendous economic turmoils, that changed the world economy of today, we will focus on the Great Depression of 1929 and the Oil Crisis of 1973, comparing them also with the 21st century global crisis of 2008. Through a lens of historic and periodic analysis, content analysis, and comparative analysis, this study seeks to unravel the intricacies of these financial crises, their similarities, differences and what went wrong in each case and what role the Federal Reserve’s System played in in shaping economic outcomes. The findings underscore the significance of macroeconomic imbalances, poorly regulated financial markets, and inadequate risk management in amplifying the impact of economic events. Policymakers' responses and reforms after each crisis are examined, highlighting the recurring theme of claims of increased preparedness for future scenarios. The study concludes by urging a re-evaluation of the Federal Reserve's policies, emphasizing the need for a proactive and informed approach to address potential future crises and advocating for a better understanding of the global impact of national policies. |
| Keywords: | economic crises; 20th century, qualitative analysis, review and comparison |
| JEL: | G01 G18 G38 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122466 |
| By: | Junko Koeda; Bin Wei |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the effectiveness of Japan's unconventional monetary policies over the past quarter century within a unified term structure framework. It specifically examines the impact of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) outcome-based forward guidance and yield curve control (YCC) and incorporates other policy types into the framework. The findings show that the BOJ’s forward guidance and YCC have both had a significant impact on the shadow rate. Forward guidance accounted for most of the policy impact in the early stages of unconventional monetary policies and remained influential throughout. YCC, since its introduction in 2016 until March 2022, contributed to more than a third of the policy impact. Furthermore, these policies have been effective in raising output and inflation. |
| Keywords: | forward guidance; effective lower bound (ELB); liftoff; term structure; shadow rate; macro finance; unspanned macro factors; yield curve control; Japan |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2024–09–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedawp:99037 |