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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Richard Sylla (New York University Stern School of Business); Robert E. Wright (Augustana University, South Dakota) |
| Abstract: | Fortune magazine began publishing annual rankings of U.S. corporations by revenue in 1955. Ever since, scholars and forecasters have analyzed changes in the Fortune 500 to help inform their judgments about industry concentration and the relative importance of different sectors of the economy. Unfortunately, earlier data are scarce, especially before the Civil War. Through extensive research we have created a sort of historical "Fortune 500" going back to 1812, ranked by corporate capitalization, which we share here. Numerous insights can be drawn from this dataset, including the historical dominance of the banking and finance sectors and the early importance of manufacturing. Perhaps the larger significance of being able to come up with a Fortune 500 for 1812, though, is the fact that even with a population of only about 7.5 million, U.S. already had more business corporations than any other country, and possibly more than all other countries put together, securing its role as the world's first "corporation nation." The ease of incorporating businesses released a lot of entrepreneurial energy that helped to build an ever-expanding economy and by the end of the 19th century, the U.S. would be the world's largest national economy with tens of thousands of corporations. |
| Keywords: | Early American Business History, Fortune 500, Structure of US Economy. |
| JEL: | B10 B15 G32 |
| Date: | 2024–08–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp224 |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou (The World Bank) |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:683 |
| By: | Ager, Philipp; Pedersen, Maja U.; Sharp, Paul; Tsoukli, Xanthi |
| Abstract: | This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the Great Fire’s effects on London’s economic geography. Our analysis reveals both continuity and change. There was a swift postfire recovery accompanied by some shift in economic activity towards the City of Westminster by 1690, with markets spreading outside the City, but financial services largely remaining inside. Analysis of London Hearth Tax records further illustrates a significant change in the wealth distribution, with wealthier households returning to fire-impacted areas, reshaping the city’s housing and social structure. |
| Keywords: | Great Fire of London, Economic geography, Location of economic activity JEL Classification: N23, N93 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:719 |
| By: | David Escamilla-Guerrero |
| Abstract: | Prepared for the volume “Roots of Underdevelopment: A New Economic and Political History of Latin America and the Caribbean” (edited by Felipe Valencia Caicedo). |
| Date: | 2024–10–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_212 |
| By: | Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Miguel A. Martin-Valmayor; Luis A. Gil-Alana; Nieves Carmona-González |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the persistence and mean reversion properties of sovereign debt and its components by applying fractional integration methods to long runs of annual data starting in 1831 for the UK and the US, in 1862 for Italy and in 1881 for France and Germany, and ending in all cases in 2022. The empirical results provide evidence of a high degree of persistence in all debt/GDP series, which appear to be I(1). However, cross-country differences emerge when analysing the properties of the individual components of debt. Specifically, in countries with a relatively large debt/GDP ratio, such as France and Italy, the primary balance is more persistent (0.5 |
| Keywords: | fractional integration, mean reversion, persistence, debt sustainability |
| JEL: | E52 C32 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11409 |
| By: | Vicente Pinilla (Universidad de Zaragoza and Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón (IA2), Zaragoza, Spain); Agustina Rayes (Instituto de Investigaciones Políticas (Universidad Nacional de San Martín and Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas), Argentina) |
| Abstract: | From the Independence, the region that later became Argentina was interested in promoting foreign economic relations. One way was to sign trade treaties, in particular since the second half of nineteenth century. All of them had a clear goal: to improve commercial connections not only with European countries but also with American ones. In fact, the literature has recognised those agreements as part of the country´s economic integration into the global system during the so-called First Globalisation (c. 1850-1914). Nevertheless, to the best of our knowledge, their impact on foreign trade has not been measured. Thus, in this research, we ask whether a direct link existed between the signing of agreements and the performance of different types of exports (livestock, crops, and processed agri-food products), and the application of the Most Favoured Nation clause (absolute or conditional). Specifically, the sources used to carry out this analysis are a database of Argentine exports from 1880 to 1929 and each of the ratified trade treaties signed by Argentina during the period (or before). |
| Keywords: | Argentine economic history, Latin American economic history, Bilateral Trade Agreements, Most-Favoured-Nation Clause, First Globalisation |
| JEL: | F13 F14 N56 N76 Q17 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahe:dtaehe:2406 |
| By: | HARIT, ADITYA |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a mathematical economic model to analyze the trade dynamics along the Ganges River, focusing on the interactions among political stability, technological advancement, guild productivity, and the supply-demand mechanism. The model employs principles from Classical Economics and incorporates elements of Keynesian trade theory. Through a series of equations, we derive equilibrium conditions that describe the economic interactions in the Ganges Valley until the end of the Gupta period. The formulation accounts for diminishing returns, interdependencies among factors, and their combined effects on trade volume. |
| Keywords: | Trade Dynamics, Economic Model, Ganges River, Political Stability, Historical Economics, Supply and Demand. |
| JEL: | A12 B0 C61 N00 |
| Date: | 2024–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122274 |
| By: | Ulrich Glogowsky; Emanuel Hansen; Dominik Sachs; Holger Lüthen |
| Abstract: | Using German administrative data from the 1960s onward, this paper (i) examines the long-term evolution of child-related gender inequality in earnings and (ii) assesses the impact of family policies on this inequality. We present three sets of findings. First, child penalties (i.e., the percentage of potential earnings lost due to children) have strongly increased over the last decades. Mothers who had their first child in the 1960s faced much smaller penalties than those who gave birth in the 2000s. Second, we decompose overall gender inequality into child-related and child-unrelated components. Over our sample period, the fraction of overall inequality attributed to children rose from 14% to 64%. This trend not only resulted from the growing child penalties but also from rising potential earnings of mothers. Intuitively, in later decades, mothers had more income to lose from child-related career breaks. Third, we investigate the role of policy decisions in this rise in child penalties. Parental leave expansions between 1979 and 1992 amplified child penalties and contributed nearly one-third to the increase in child-related gender inequality. Instead, a parental benefit reform in 2007 mitigated further increases. While the third set of results highlights the role of family policies, the first two imply that sidelining mothers becomes increasingly costly over time. |
| Keywords: | gender inequality, child penalties, family policies |
| JEL: | H31 H42 J08 J13 J16 J18 J22 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11365 |
| By: | Fazio, Andrea; Reggiani, Tommaso; Santori, Paolo |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically tests Max Weber's thesis on how religious narratives, particularly the Protestant Ethic, influence attitudes toward wealth redistribution. Weber suggested that the Protestant Reformation, led to the belief that economic success was a sign of divine favor, legitimizing wealth inequality. Using a variation of the dictator game with "blessed" framing, we measure how participants' redistribution behaviors change when primed with this narrative. Our results show that low-income Protestants exposed to the "blessed" narrative are less likely to redistribute wealth compared to Catholics, supporting Weber's idea that Protestants justify inequality through divine providence. Furthermore, a narrative analysis reveals that Protestants interpret "blessing" as divine election, while Catholics focus more on well-being. These findings suggest that religious narratives significantly shape economic behaviors and preferences for redistribution, providing empirical support for Weber's thesis. |
| Keywords: | dictator game, MaxWeber, pro-social behaviour, redistribution |
| JEL: | J14 J15 Z12 Z1 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1505 |
| By: | Chiswick, Barry R.; Robinson, RaeAnn Halenda |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the occupational status of adult White foreign-born men in the antebellum United States, compared to White native-born men, and among the foreign born by country of origin. Hypotheses are developed regarding the effects on occupational status of human capital, demographic, and immigrant-related variables. The hypotheses are tested using the PUMS data for the 100 percent sample (full count) from the 1850 Census of Population, the first census to ask for the male respondent's occupation, as well as the linked 1850-1860 Census data. Two quantitative measures of occupational status serve as the dependent variables - the Occupational Income Score and the Ducan Socioeconomic Index. The hypotheses are found to be consistent with the data. Moreover, other variables the same, while there is a large gap in occupational status between the foreign and native born just after the former arrive, this gap narrows very quickly and, other variables the same, White male immigrants reached occupational-income parity with their native-born counterparts at about 8.4 years after immigration. |
| Keywords: | Immigrants, Occupational Status, Occupational Income Score, Duncan Socioeconomic Index, 1850 Census of Population, Antebellum United States, Labor Market Analysis, Longitudinal Analysis (1850-1860) |
| JEL: | N31 J15 J62 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1512 |
| By: | Gomtsyan, Suren Gomtsian; Schuster, Edmund-Philipp |
| Abstract: | Various reasons have been put forward for the declining global relevance of the London equity market. Reform proposals and changes already implemented target some of the major problems identified as reasons for the stock market's decline. Surprisingly, tax related explanations for the current state of the UK stock market are largely absent from the discourse. This paper argues that the preferential tax treatment of the dividend income of UK pension funds and insurance companies introduced in the early 1970s and repealed in the mid 1990s first contributed to the UK stock market's growth by implicitly subsidising financing via equity and encouraging the flow of the funds of these investors into the market, and subsequently led to the market's decline as a result of the outflow of the funds of the two major classes of institutional investors: UK pension funds and insurance companies. The key implication of this argument is that omitting tax as a major factor in the decline of the UK stock market risks ending up with reforms that can, at best, do little to change the current situation. |
| Keywords: | corporate governance; dividend taxation; institutional investors; London stock market; pension funds; tax |
| JEL: | F3 G3 J1 |
| Date: | 2024–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:123539 |
| By: | Michael Tribe |
| Abstract: | The paper aims provide detail for some of the principal changes in the structure of aid delivery since the 1960s. A significant part of the discussion is based on statistics which illustrate many of these changes in terms of the various sources of aid (OECD DAC countries, Non-DAC countries, Multilateral Agencies, and private donors). The main data sources are the OECD QWIDS webpage (OECD 2023 and 2024b) and the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (World Bank 2024). It also discusses changes in the allocation of ODA (Official Development Assistance) between directly productive, economic infrastructure, social infrastructure, humanitarian, security and ‘emergency’ sectors over these years. A distinction is made between different categories of ‘development finance’ including ODA, Official Development Finance (ODF), Other Official Finance (OOF) and lending on more commercial terms. The term ‘emerging donors’ is discussed, and the various dimensions of these donors are explored. Within a somewhat shorter time period (mainly 2000-2020) the changing institutional complexity of the ‘aid sector’ is described and the implications of this are explored, together with the changing priorities and objectives of ‘traditional donors’. In part the changing structure and priorities of the aid sector reflect international socio-economic events including natural and man-made disasters, international migration of various types, and changing perceptions of how aid ‘works’. The debate relating to ‘aid effectiveness’ is reviewed critically, and the issues relating to the ‘decolonisation’ of aid are explored briefly. One of the principal conclusions is that the ‘aid sector’ has changed enormously from the character which it had just after the Second World War when the need to address the problems of ‘less developed countries’ was first officially articulated. This change has been continuous, so that more recent significant changes follow on within the evolution of the sector. |
| Keywords: | Economic Development; International Linkages to Development, Role of International Organizations; Development Planning and Policy; Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development; International Trade, Finance, Investment, and Aid |
| JEL: | O1 O19 O2 O23 P45 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gla:glaewp:2024_06 |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou (The World Bank) |
| Date: | 2024–10–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:682 |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou (The World Bank) |
| Date: | 2024–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:685 |
| By: | Rustagi, Devesh (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | Does self-governance, a hallmark of democratic societies, foster norms of generalized cooperation? Does this effect persist, and if so, why? I investigate these questions using a natural experiment in Switzerland. In the middle-ages, the absence of an heir resulted in the extinction of a prominent noble dynasty. As a result, some Swiss municipalities became self-governing, whereas the others remained under feudalism for another 600 years. Evidence from a behavioral experiment, World Values Survey, and Swiss Household Panel consistently shows that individuals from historically self-governing municipalities exhibit stronger norms of cooperation today. Referenda data on voter-turnout allow me to trace these effects on individually costly and socially beneficial actions for over 150 years. Furthermore, norms of cooperation map into prosocial behaviors like charitable giving and environmental protection. Uniquely, Switzerland tracks every family’s place of origin in registration data, which I use to demonstrate persistence from cultural transmission in a context of historically low migration. |
| Keywords: | Self-governance, norms of cooperation, cultural transmission, public goods game, referendum, Switzerland JEL Classification: D02, H41, N43, Z10 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:718 |
| By: | Smith, Cory (University of Maryland (AREC)); Kulka, Amrita (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | We study the process of long-run urban growth using a unique setting of close elections that determined “county seats†(capitals) in the frontier United States. Employing a regression discontinuity design, we show that winning towns rapidly became the economic and population centers of their counties as new migrants coordinated on them as destinations. This coordination was largest in the early years of a county’s history, but limited in later decades. Using generalized random forests, we show that the economic changes were not zero sum locally: specific choices of county seat could increase long-run county population and income. As county administration was limited in this era, the public sector did not play a substantial role in this growth. Instead, these results illustrate how a political process can select spatial equilibria through a shock that is neither related to locational fundamentals nor confers direct productivity advantages on the location. |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification: |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:724 |
| By: | Kwamivi Mawuli Gomado (EDEHN - Equipe d'Economie Le Havre Normandie - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université) |
| Abstract: | Abstract Various shocks, including the Gulf War, the US recession, the 9/11 attacks, financial credit crunch, and domestic political shocks like coups, and revolutions, have contributed to the persistence of high uncertainty. This uncertainty has direct implications for economic activity, affecting both business investment and household consumption decisions. This article explores the mediating role of the quality of pro‐market institutions in the relationship between economic performance and changes in the uncertainty. It also investigates whether reforming pro‐market institutions during a period of uncertainty can mitigate the negative effects of the uncertainty on economic performance, while analyzing the channels through which the mediating effect of reforms during uncertainty manifests. Using a sample of 61 developing countries over the period 1990–2014, our results, robust to various tests, indicate that higher quality of pro‐market institutions significantly reduces the negative effects of uncertainty on economic performance. Indeed, the reduction in GDP growth due to a change in uncertainty decreases by 93 percentage points with higher levels of pro‐market institutional quality, and this variation depends on the nature of the pro‐market institutions considered. Furthermore, implementing pro‐market institutional liberalization reforms during a period of uncertainty could not only alleviate the negative effects of uncertainty but also contribute to medium‐term economic growth. The analysis of channels suggests that this effect is mediated by the impact of reforms on household consumption and business investment. These results highlight how pro‐market institutions and reforms in these institutions can enhance the resilience of economies facing high uncertainty or unexpected and substantial economic shocks. |
| Date: | 2024–08–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04725308 |
| By: | Michelle Norris (Geary Institute for Public Policy, University College Dublin, Ireland) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the ways in which land supply and price, the policies and mechanisms used to manage them and changes to these arrangements over time have influenced the long-term trajectories of social housing systems in three Western European countries. The argument offered here is that land policy has exerted a major, and underappreciated, influence on the resilience and fragility of social housing systems – meaning their tendency to expand (in resilient cases) or contract (which indicates fragility) over the long run in terms of the proportion of all households accommodated. Land policy can provide a valuable ‘invisible’ subsidy for social housing which plays a particularly important role in enabling the sector to withstand adverse changes in the wider political economy such as economic or fiscal crisis and growing ideological and political opposition. These ideas are explored in comparative and historical perspective by examining changes in land policy and social housing supply in Austria, England, and the Netherlands since the early twentieth century. The analysis focuses on the extent to which arrangements for providing land for social housing and land policy more broadly focus on replacing, steering, subsidising, or enabling land markets. |
| Keywords: | Land Policy, Social Hoousing Systems |
| Date: | 2024–10–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucd:wpaper:202407 |
| By: | Brown, Gregory W. (U of North Carolina at Chapel Hill); Goncalves, Andrei S. (Ohio State U); Hu, Wendy (MSCI Inc) |
| Abstract: | The alpha of an investment reflects its ability to increase the Sharpe ratio of a benchmark portfolio allocation based on tradable factors. We argue that, in the context of private capital, the usual approach to estimate alpha is misleading because it ignores the economic realities of investing in private markets. We then combine a large sample of 5, 028 U.S. buyout, venture capital, and real estate funds from 1987 to 2022 to estimate the alphas of private capital asset classes under realistic simulations that account for the illiquidity and underdiversification in private markets as well as the portfolio allocation of typical limited partners. We find that buyout as an asset class provided a positive and statistically significant alpha during our sample period. In contrast, over our sample period, the venture capital alpha was large and positive but statistically unreliable whereas the real estate alpha was very close to zero. |
| JEL: | G10 G11 G12 G20 G23 G24 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2024-20 |
| By: | Lili Yan Ing (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Justin Yifu Lin |
| Abstract: | World economic governance was largely dominated by major developed countries in the 20th century. Over the last half-century, we have witnessed a global economic transformation. The shift is evident in the changing global shares amongst developed and developing countries across four key economic metrics: total output, trade in goods, manufacturing value added, and foreign direct investment. What we find is that the substantial transformations are not primarily caused by significant changes in the growth performance of developed countries but rather by the rapid catch-up of a few developing countries. Sustainable economic growth is a continuous process of technological innovation, elevating labour productivity, and industrial upgrading. Drawing on insights from the growth and structural transformation patterns observed in both developed and developing countries, achieving sustainable economic growth requires (i) optimising comparative advantage and effective infrastructure, (ii) managing gradual transitions economically and politically, and (iii) optimising the use of digital transformation |
| Keywords: | Economic transformation, international trade, investment, world economy |
| JEL: | F1 O N P |
| Date: | 2024–02–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2023-26 |
| By: | Benjamin Schneider; Jane Whittle |
| Abstract: | The location of work has received renewed scholarly and public interest since the increase in working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this survey we explore how historians have discussed the location and circumstances of work as well as the distance and relationship between home and work, and we consider why analysis of workplaces in historical research has been limited to few dimensions and questions. We propose a terminological distinction between worksites, which are the geographical places of work, and workspaces, the physical surroundings in which work occurs. Beyond a limited set of examples that we discuss, worksites and workspaces have received relatively little sustained attention in historical research on work and labour. We survey contemporary research on changing worksites, the impacts of new travel-to-work patterns on quality of life, and the effects of workspace arrangements. We then highlight three workplace-related topics that have attracted interest from historians: the transition from home-based work to factories during industrialization; the history of commuting; and the locations of women’s work. We observe that interest has emerged in response to fundamental changes in work, but that there is much scope for further investigation. As the current moment contains similar shifts, we suggest directions for research into historical patterns of work that can contribute to the contemporary debate over the effects of remote working and changing workspace arrangements. |
| Date: | 2024–10–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_213 |
| By: | Melki, Mickael (Paris School of Business); Rapoport, Hillel (Paris School of Economics, CEPII, LISER and CEPR); Spolaore, Enrico (Tufts University and NBER); Wacziarg, Romain (UCLA Anderson School of Management and NBER) |
| Abstract: | We argue that migrants played a significant role in the diffusion of the demographic transition from France to the rest of Europe in the late 19th century. Employing novel data on French immigration from other European regions from 1850 to 1930, we find that higher immigration to France translated into lower fertility in the region of origin after a few decades - both in crossregion regressions for various periods, and in a panel setting with region fixed effects. These results are robust to the inclusion of a variety of controls, and across multiple specifications. We also find that immigrants who themselves became French citizens achieved lower fertility, particularly those who moved to French regions with the lowest fertility levels. We interpret these findings in terms of cultural remittances, consistently with insights from a theoretical framework where migrants act as vectors of cultural diffusion, spreading new information, social norms and preferences pertaining to modern fertility to their regions of origin. |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification: |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:723 |
| By: | Cécile Bastidon (LEAD - Laboratoire d'Économie Appliquée au Développement - UTLN - Université de Toulon); Myriam Bontonou (LBMC UMR 5239 - Laboratoire de biologie et modélisation de la cellule - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Phys-ENS - Laboratoire de Physique de l'ENS Lyon - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Pierre Borgnat (Phys-ENS - Laboratoire de Physique de l'ENS Lyon - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Pablo Jensen (Phys-ENS - Laboratoire de Physique de l'ENS Lyon - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Patrice Abry (Phys-ENS - Laboratoire de Physique de l'ENS Lyon - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Antoine Parent (LED - Laboratoire d'Economie Dionysien - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis) |
| Abstract: | The return of inflation raises the issues of assessing cross-dependencies in the interest rates of long-term government bonds. Learning cross-dependencies directly from data is framed here as a graph learning problem that requires to address the issues of bond rates heterogeneous and nonstationary evolutions, with sharp changes along time and across countries, and of managing missing samples. As a first contribution, the present work devises a data driven time-dependent graph for bonds markets, specifically based on risk premia. As a second contribution, it shows the relevance of such constructions when applied to a broad database of 29 countries over 6 decades (1960-2020), that includes the high inflation episode of the 1970s. |
| Date: | 2024–08–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04731912 |
| By: | Aakash Kalyani (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Nicholas Bloom (Stanford University); Marcela Carvalho (Harvard University); Tarek Hassan (Boston University); Josh Lerner (Harvard University); Ahmed Tahoun (London Business School) |
| Abstract: | We identify phrases associated with novel technologies using textual analysis of patents, job postings, and earnings calls, enabling us to identify four stylized facts on the diffusion of jobs relating to new technologies. First, the development of economically impactful new technologies is geographically highly concentrated, more so even than overall patenting: 56% of the most economically impactful technologies come from just two U.S. locations, Silicon Valley and the Northeast Corridor. Second, as the technologies mature and the number of related jobs grows, hiring spreads geographically. But this process is very slow, taking around 50 years to disperse fully. Third, while initial hiring in new technologies is highly skill biased, over time the mean skill level in new positions declines, drawing in an increasing number of lower-skilled workers. Finally, the geographic spread of hiring is slowest for higher-skilled positions, with the locations where new technologies were pioneered remaining the focus for the technology's high-skill jobs for decades. |
| Keywords: | Employment, Geography, Innovation, R and D |
| JEL: | O31 O32 |
| Date: | 2024–06–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp222 |
| By: | Fabio C. Bagliano (Collegio Carlo Alberto, University of Torino, Italy); Andrea Mattozzi (Center for European Studies, University of Milano-Bicocca, Italy; Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies; Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis) |
| Abstract: | The paper yields a structural account of economic integration in the Eurozone from its inception to post-pandemic developments by considering a broad range of convergence measures. We introduce a novel FAVAR framework, extracting the structural shocks driving the Eurozone business and financial cycles directly from the cyclical components they generate. Productivity advancements have been the critical trend convergence factor, shaping long swings in real, labor market, and financial dispersion. Subdued cost-push shocks were the key driver of Eurozone nominal and competitiveness convergence throughout 2015 but have become an all-rounded divergence force since then. Fiscal discipline imposed by the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) increased real and financial divergence during all recessionary episodes, while the ECB expansionary monetary policy was a convergence factor. The SGP suspension during the recent pandemic recession and recovery has partially counteracted divergence pressures. Looking forward, convergence will crucially depend on how productivity dynamics and economic growth will fend off further unfavorable cost-push developments, which might become pervasive in a deglobalization-driven new macroeconomic regime. |
| Keywords: | real, nominal and financial convergence and divergence, Eurozone, economic integration, recessions, financial crises, subprime financial crisis, sovereign debt crisis, pandemic recession, FAVAR models |
| JEL: | E30 E50 C32 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rim:rimwps:24-15 |
| By: | Scott Fulford (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau); Fabio Schiantarelli (Boston College; IZA) |
| Abstract: | We construct the first estimates of U.S. county nominal and real GDP by broadly defined industrial sectors from 1870 to 2018. Counties tended to converge from 1870 until 1970, but subsequently grew apart. Falling inequality between states explains most of the fall in county inequality from 1870 to 1970. After 1970, increasing inequality within states explains most of the overall inequality increase. Before 1970, more productive states were more equal, after 1970 more productive states were more unequal. U.S. geographic inequality is no longer primarily about differences between regions or states, but instead about differences within them. We show how the changing industrial composition affects inequality. The path to riches has changed from manufacturing to tradable services. From 1870 to 1950, manufacturing became increasingly concentrated in the richest counties. The manufacturing share is now the highest in middle income counties, while the richest counties increasingly produce tradable services. Manufacturing’s contribution to inequality is the largest before 1960 and its decline is the main explanation for the fall in inequality from 1930 to 1970, while the growth of tradable services and their concentration in top metropolitan areas contribute to the nominal inequality increase after 1970. Agriculture used to be the primary activity of the poorest counties. Now, the poorer the county, the larger the share in government, education, and health. Government services decrease county inequality. We show that population growth and education used to be strongly pro-convergence, but after 1970 became neutral or anti-convergence. At the same time, agglomeration effects in manufacturing and tradable services appear to have increased. |
| Keywords: | Regional Growth; Inequality; Productivity; Industrial Composition; County growth; United States; GDP |
| JEL: | R12 O4 N9 |
| Date: | 2024–10–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:1081 |
| By: | Alejandro Nieto Ramos (Universitat de Valencia) |
| Abstract: | Este texto presenta una estimacion de la desigualdad de ingresos para Colombia en 1870. En base a los datos censales, informacion secundaria de ingresos y metodologias de calculo e imputacion, se construye una Tabla Social con cerca de 235 categorias. Esta Tabla incorpora por lo menos tres aportes que detallan de mejor manera la realidad economica y social del pais durante el periodo analizado. Primero, reconoce distintas formas de trabajo rural y modela su ingreso conforme la relacion especifica que cada una mantenia con la propiedad de la tierra. Segundo, presenta una metodologia para estimar y cuantificar los ingresos de la propiedad y su variabilidad. Finalmente, todos los supuestos estan desagregados a nivel regional, lo que brinda mayor detalle metodologico e historico. Un primer resultado muestra que la participacion del factor trabajo en el PNB fue de alrededor del 69% y la del capital y la renta de la tierra del 31%, resultado que se contrasta con otras fuentes historicas disponibles. En terminos de desigualdad personal se encuentra que, en un escenario promedio, el coeficiente de Gini para 1870 estuvo en un rango de 0, 62-0, 63, un valor superior al que otros estudios han estimado para paises de la region y tambien al que otros acercamientos han hecho para Colombia. Finalmente, se discute como este resultado puede estar vinculado con las relaciones laborales que se desarrollaron alrededor de la gran propiedad territorial. |
| Keywords: | Desigualdad de ingresos, Tablas sociales, Finales del siglo XIX, Colombia |
| JEL: | D31 D33 N01 N36 Q15 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bci:wpaper:2404 |
| By: | Francis, Joseph |
| Abstract: | Hoyt Bleakley and Paul Rhode use a “regression discontinuity design” (RDD) to find a persistent negative effect of slavery’s legality on rural population density throughout the period from 1790 to 1860. Yet their reported results cannot be replicated. Instead, the replication shows slavery’s negative effects only become statistically significant from 1840 onwards. Furthermore, the addition of an interaction term for slavery’s legality multiplied by longitude suggests that slavery may have facilitated the westward expansion of the Southern frontier in the antebellum period. This does not support the claim that slavery impeded the growth of American capitalism. |
| Keywords: | Slavery, American capitalism, economic history, replication, regression dis-continuity design |
| JEL: | C21 N11 N21 N51 O43 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122197 |
| By: | Grégoire Croidieu (EM - EMLyon Business School); Walter W. Powell; Stewart Clegg; Michael Grothe-Hammer; Kathia Serrano Velarde |
| Abstract: | This paper seeks to understand how a new elite, known as the cork aristocracy, emerged in the Bordeaux wine field, France, between 1850 and 1929 as wine merchants replaced aristocrats. Classic class and status perspectives, and their distinctive social closure dynamics, are mobilized to illuminate the individual and organizational transformations that affected elite wineries grouped in an emerging classification of the Bordeaux best wines. We build on a wealth of archives and historical ethnography techniques to surface complex status and organizational dynamics that reveal how financiers and industrialists intermediated this transition and how organizations are deeply interwoven into social change. |
| Keywords: | Class, Status, Social closure, Historical ethnography, Bordeaux wine |
| Date: | 2024–09–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04717620 |