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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Ryoji Koike (Director and Senior Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: ryouji.koike@boj.or.jp)) |
| Abstract: | This paper overviews the developments of the Bank of Japan's balance sheet from the Meiji era to postwar reconstruction. The paper assesses balance sheet items in terms of both nominal values and ratios to nominal GNP, using semiannual and monthly data reassembled from historical materials. In the semiannual data, the ratio of total assets to GNP remained at 10-15 percent in peacetime but increased to 19-48 percent in wartime, whereas it was 16 percent at most during financial crises. Meanwhile, banknotes remained stable, at 8-11 percent, except in the Bank's early years and at end of the Pacific War in 1941-45. The monthly data capture short-term changes during financial crises and rapid changes in economic and financial institutions, such as the 1923 earthquake, the return to the gold standard in 1930, and the emergency measures in 1946 that voided old banknotes to reduce money in circulation. These data provide useful information for research in history fields such as the identification of exogenous shocks. |
| Keywords: | from the Meiji era to postwar reconstruction, the Bank of Japan's balance sheet, historical records, semiannual data, monthly data |
| JEL: | N25 Y10 E58 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:24-e-07 |
| By: | Hiroyuki Fujiwara (Director and Senior Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: hiroyuki.fujiwara@boj.or.jp)) |
| Abstract: | The Flow of Funds Accounts (FFA) statistics are useful for understanding macroeconomic trends in the flow of funds and the financial structure of Japan. The Bank of Japan has compiled and published the FFA in Japan each fiscal year since 1953. For earlier years, stock tables prepared by researchers are available for the early Meiji period since 1871. This paper presents several representative series of Japan's long- term FFA since the Meiji period, and explains the transitions of the historical data against the background of changes in the economic structure, and the historical connectivity of the data arising from the review of compilation methods. It also reviews historical FFA statistics and the process of making necessary revisions. The main results obtained are as follows. Firstly, fluctuations in financial assets and liabilities and financial surplus or deficit (as ratio to nominal GDP) by sector during and shortly after World War II were much larger than in other periods, and shrank significantly after the war, resulting in a considerable resetting of the credit-debt relationship. Secondly, the credit aggregates and the net financial assets in recent years in the private sector, as well as the credit aggregates and the net financial liabilities in the public sector, have exceeded their pre-World War II peaks. Thirdly, the private sector's financial surplus and the public sector's financial deficit were larger at the time of the fiscal reform of 1877 in the early Meiji period and after the outbreak of the Second Sino-Japanese War in 1937 than in recent years. |
| Keywords: | Flow of Funds Accounts (FFA), Historical connectivity of the data, Ratio to nominal GDP, Stock and Flow tables, Credit Aggregates, Net Financial Assets, Financial Surplus or Deficit |
| JEL: | E51 G10 N15 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:24-e-08 |
| By: | Eiji Yamamura |
| Abstract: | In 1880, Keio, a private school in Japan, was in jeopardy of being closed. To cope with the situation, the school first created a fundraising campaign during the 18801-90 period. The school was established in 1857, and since 1861, the list covering all students academic record has been distributed not only to teachers but also to all students. Individual-level historical academic record was integrated with the list of contributors. Using the data, we compared persons who had learned in Keio before and after the system was introduced. The main findings are presented as follows. first, graduates who share the academic record are more likely to contribute, and their amount of donation is larger; second, the class size is negatively correlated with the likelihood of contribution and with its amount; and third, academic performance, as shown in the list, is positively correlated with the likelihood of contribution but not with the amount of donation, using a sub-sample of those who shared the list. The introduction of the system strengthened the community network and role of social image shared by the members. This resulted in a successful fundraising for the school, an unprecedented feat in the history of Japan. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.08415 |
| By: | Suzanne J Konzelmann |
| Abstract: | There is a strong resonance between events of the inter-war years and today. These include a questioning of laissez-faire capitalism and austerity, and the rise of so-called “populist” parties on both the left and right. Clara Mattei’s (2022) The Capital Order: How Economists Invented Austerity and Paved the Way to Fascism thus makes an interesting contribution, by locating the key argument of her book in the febrile period of European history between the wars. According to Mattei, the First World War disrupted the pre-war capitalist system to such an extent that it created a crisis of capitalism, itself. As a result, following the end of hostilities, there was a conscious effort to restore the pre-war “capital order” by means of a technocratic “austerity strategy”; and this was strongly linked to the rise of fascism. We argue that the inter-relationship between capitalism, austerity and fascism during the 1920s and 1930s was rather more complex, and that to make sense of this, it is necessary to broaden the focus beyond Italy and Great Britain and the international financial conferences at Brussels (1920) and Genoa (1922). Otherwise, we risk misunderstanding and mis-diagnosing our own times, as those inter-war politicians, financiers and economists discovered to their cost. We therefore also include Germany and the United States and base our analysis on the events of the entire inter-war period. |
| Keywords: | Laissez-faire capitalism, fascism, austerity, insecurity cycle, John Maynard Keynes, Karl Polanyi |
| JEL: | N12 N14 P1 P30 P52 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbr:cbrwps:wp540 |
| By: | Bill Martin |
| Abstract: | Ten years ago, Britain’s main statistics agency revised the figures describing the history of the nation’s capital investment with results that, before 1997 and for many decades after the second world war, lack a coherent rationale and look wrong. The impact is still embedded in today’s official national accounts. The effects of the revision can be seen, for example, in an implausible uplift to Britain’s investment and growth record in the 1950s, the shifted scale and timing of the Barber Boom and Bust in the first half of the 1970s and in the improbable erasure of the post-war, thirty-year decline in company profit share. A deep investigation of the official figures is attempted and estimates made, but the task is hampered by incomplete documentation. It is regrettable that the Office for National Statistics decided some time ago not to correct the suspect capital investment figures. Those wishing to draw lessons from Britain’s economic past are advised not to rely on the ‘historic’ national accounts. |
| Keywords: | National accounts, capital investment, UK post-war economic history, R&D |
| JEL: | C82 E01 N1 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbr:cbrwps:wp541 |
| By: | Claude DIEBOLT; Faustine Perrin |
| Abstract: | This chapter lays the theoretical foundations of long-run economic growth. After providing an overview of the three fundamental regimes that have characterized the process of development over the course of human history on the basis of the seminal work of Galor and Weil (2000), we review existing theories offering explanations of the different stages of development. In particular, we examine the predictions and underlying mechanisms of the traditional theories of economic growth and the theories of demographic transitions. We then show the relevance of the Unified Growth Theory to explain and capture the underlying mechanisms of the development process. Finally, we highlight the importance of integrating a gendered perspective in the study of long-run economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Economic History; Economic Development; Growth; Demographic Transition; Unified Growth Theory; Gender. |
| JEL: | A33 N1 O1 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2024-35 |
| By: | Johannes Boehm; Thomas Chaney |
| Abstract: | What caused the end of antiquity, the shift of economic activity away from the Mediterranean towards northern Europe? We assemble a large database of coin flows between the 4th and 10th century and use it to document the shifting patterns of exchange during this time period. We build a dynamic model of trade and money where coins gradually diffuse along trade routes. We estimate the parameters of this model and recover time-varying bi-lateral trade flows and real consumption from data on the spatial and temporal distribution of coins. Our estimates suggest that technical progress, increased minting, and to a lesser degree the fall in trade flows over the newly formed border between Islam and Christianity contributed to the relative growth of Muslim Spain and the Frankish lands of northern Europe and the decline of the Roman-Byzantine world. Our estimates are consistent with the increased urbanization of western and northern Europe relative to the eastern Mediterranean from the 8th to the 10th century. |
| Keywords: | gravity models, international trade, market access, diffusion |
| Date: | 2024–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2030 |
| By: | Tsoulfidis, Lefteris; Chatzarakis, Nikolaos |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the conditions leading neoclassical economics to its division into microeconomics and macroeconomics, comparing it with the integrated macroscopic-microscopic approach of Classical Political Economy (CPE). Neoclassical economics emerged in the last quarter of the 19th century introducing a subjective theory of value based on individual preferences and optimizing behavior. The division between micro and macroeconomics became visible during the 1930s crisis due to what came to be known as monopolistic competition and macroeconomic revolutions. The stagflation crisis (of late 1960s to early 1980s) prompted the so-called microfounding of macroeconomics and the unified treatment of macroeconomic issues. By contrast, the CPE maintains a unified perspective, analyzing capitalism broadly at a macroscopic level focusing on labor as the primary value creator. Unlike neoclassical theory, CPE prioritizes aggregated variables and social class incomes driven by survival and profit motives rather than subjective preferences. The paper concludes that issues of effective demand, growth, and cycles can be fruitfully addressed within the unified CPE framework, highlighting the theoretical consistency of employing the labor theory of value for evaluating aggregate variables like capital. |
| Keywords: | Microfoundations, Classical Political Economy, Labor Theory of Value, Utility, Marginal Productivity |
| JEL: | B21 B22 B51 D01 E10 E11 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121951 |
| By: | Gary Richardson; Marco Del Angel |
| Abstract: | Which firms relied on commercial banks for credit and which firms did not at the onset of the Great Depression would seem to be an important question given the vast literature discussing banking distress in the United States during the 1930s. The question, however, has not been answered. This essay addresses that issue by analyzing data from an Internal Revenue Service publication, Statistics of Income. The hitherto unexplored data reveals that small firms in all industries borrowed heavily from commercial banks and relied on them for credit necessary to fund ongoing operations. The largest firms in most sectors deposited more in banks than they borrowed from them. Sectors whose firms depended most on commercial banks for credit were wholesaling, retailing, services, and the processing of agricultural products. In contrast, nearly half of economic activity in mining and construction, the majority of output in manufacturing, and the preponderance of firms in transportation operated independent of commercial banks |
| JEL: | E01 E44 N1 N12 N22 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32918 |
| By: | Thilo Nils Hendrik Albers (HU Berlin); Felix Kersting (HU Berlin); Monique Reiske (HU Berlin) |
| Abstract: | Using interwar German agriculture as a case, this paper explores the political cost of debt deflation which we characterize with farmers' leverage ratios. Primary deficits drove their increase during 1924-1928, but deflation pushed them to unsustainable levels during 1929-1932. We construct corresponding exogenous county-level exposure measures and show their effect on economic distress as well as political radicalization. Our results suggest that debt deflation increased the Nazi party's rural vote share by over 8 percentage points relative to a counterfactual baseline scenario and was thus a necessary condition for its rural dominance and ascension to parliamentary power. |
| Keywords: | great depression; weimar germany; nsdap; extremism; debt deflation; economic crisis; |
| JEL: | D72 N13 N54 |
| Date: | 2024–09–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:511 |
| By: | Yang, Dongkyu |
| Abstract: | The idea that labor scarcity can induce economic development has been long hypothesized (Hicks, 1932; Habakkuk, 1962), but the evidence is scarce, especially on non-agricultural development. In this paper, I assess the role of the Second Great Migration (1940-1970) on the subsequent structural change in the American South between 1970 and 2010. Empirical results using shift-share instruments show that out-migration incentivized physical capital investment and capital-augmenting technical change, increasing capital and output per worker in both agriculture and manufacturing at least until 2010. Labor reallocated from agriculture to nonagriculture. I then develop and calibrate a dynamic spatial equilibrium model that allows substitution between factors of production, factor-biased technical change, and Heckscher–Ohlin forces in trade. The quantitative results indicate that the adjustments to the Second Great Migration could have contributed to 7% of the total decrease in agricultural employment between 1940 and 2010 in the South. The contribution analyses suggest that labor-capital substitution played a leading role in economic adjustment to the migration, with capital-biased technical change and the quasi-Rybczynski effect playing important supplementary roles. |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:dtxn4 |
| By: | Bebe Ciausu (University of Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | This article explores the factors that led to the explosive growth of the Church in the subapostolic period, despite the vacuum of authority and missionary strategy left by the death of Christ's apostles. Some of these factors, such as the exercise of supernatural gifts, the dedication of itinerant prophets to bring the Gospel to as many people as possible, the synagogue system and the prevalence of Jewish proselytism, Hellenized culture, Roman infrastructure, and the rise of mystery religions are attested to in the literature. However, in this research paper, we suggest that a decisive role in the spread of the Gospel throughout the Roman Empire was played by Christian laymen who believed it was their responsibility to carry the message of salvation to the ends of the earth. |
| Keywords: | church, growth, apostolic fathers, mission, evangelism, subapostolic age |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0376 |
| By: | Blau, Francine D. (Cornell University); Lynch, Lisa M. (Brandeis University) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an overview of what has happened over the past fifty years for women as they worked to break through professional barriers in economics, policy, and institutional leadership. We chart the progress of women in higher education at the college level and beyond and then go on to examine women's representation at the upper levels of academia, government, law, medicine, and management. We begin our description of trends in 1972 when Title IX was enacted, prohibiting sex-based discrimination in federally funded educational programs. The data paint a picture of considerable progress but also persistent inequities. We then go on to consider possible explanations for the continuing gender differences and some of the empirical evidence on the factors identified. |
| Keywords: | labor economics, economics of gender, labor force trends, education, discrimination, women leadership |
| JEL: | J0 J01 J10 J16 J2 J21 J24 J7 J70 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17295 |
| By: | Claude DIEBOLT; Magali Jaoul-Grammare |
| Abstract: | School choice factors play a different role according to gender. According to the literature, women have “adaptative exceptations” whereas men have so called “static exceptations”. Men and women adopt also different attitudes to expected payoffs, to risk or towards their level of aspiration. Finally, women generally associate their career plans with their life plans, which influences their choice of studies. But, what about social prestige, i.e. does the prestige of profession play an identical role in the demand for education among men and women? More specifically and over the long term, is the phenomenon of substitutability between prestigious career paths equally true for men and women? Finally, does the medical sphere regulate the male and female education systems equally? The ambition of this contribution is to contribute to the discussion using an unpublished historical dataset for France in the long 20th century. |
| Keywords: | Study choice, Gender, Prestige of professions, France. |
| JEL: | I21 J24 N34 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2024-37 |
| By: | Stephan Heblich; Stephen J. Redding; Yanos Zylberberg |
| Abstract: | We examine the distributional consequences of trade using the New World Grain Invasion that occurred in the second half of the 19th century. We use a newly-created dataset on population, employment by sector, property values, and poor law transfers for over 10, 000 parishes in England and Wales from 1801–1901. In response to this trade shock, we show that locations with high wheat suitability experience population decline, rural-urban migration, structural transformation away from agriculture, increases in welfare transfers, and declines in property values, relative to locations with low wheat suitability. We develop a quantitative spatial model to evaluate the income distributional consequences of this trade shock. Undertaking counterfactuals for the Grain Invasion, we show that geography is an important dimension along which these income distributional consequences occur. |
| JEL: | F14 F16 F66 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32958 |
| By: | Gulener, Kaan |
| Abstract: | This study examines the complex relationship between unemployment and inflation in Turkey over a 64-year period, from 1960 to 2023. Utilizing correlation analysis and simple linear regression, we investigate the long-term connection between these two key macroeconomic indicators. Our findings reveal a moderate positive correlation between unemployment and inflation, challenging the traditional inverse relationship proposed by the Phillips Curve. This unexpected result suggests that, in Turkey's economic context, periods of higher unemployment have generally coincided with higher inflation rates. The paper provides a comprehensive review of relevant literature, analyzing the historical data within the framework of Turkey's evolving economic landscape. Our research contributes to the ongoing debate on the validity of the Phillips Curve in emerging economies and offers insights into the unique economic dynamics of Turkey. The study's results highlight the need for tailored economic models and policies that account for Turkey's specific economic conditions. Furthermore, our analysis reveals patterns of economic stability and turbulence throughout the studied period, providing a valuable historical perspective on Turkey's economic development. These findings have significant implications for policymakers navigating the complex interplay between unemployment and inflation in Turkey and potentially in other emerging economies. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; Unemployment; Phillips Curve; Turkish Economy |
| JEL: | E31 J60 |
| Date: | 2024–09–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121932 |
| By: | Incerti, Trevor (Yale University); Miyano, Sayumi; Stanescu, Diana; Yamagishi, Hikaru |
| Abstract: | Political economists have long speculated about the effects of connections between bureaucracies and the private sector. However, data tracing flows of civil servants from the bureaucracy to the private sector remains rare. This article presents a new dataset, Amakudata, which contains individual-level data of virtually all Japanese bureaucrats retiring into positions outside of the bureaucracy from 2009 to 2019. We first present how the dataset was created and validated. Next, we describe what the data reveals about the revolving door in Japan and beyond, and show that some sectors may be larger hirers of government personnel than previously thought. We conclude by discussing how the data can be used to investigate empirical and causal questions in diverse subjects such as corruption and regulatory capture; procurement, pork, and government waste; bureaucratic representation; and international trade and investment. |
| Date: | 2024–09–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:fqnkz |
| By: | Waithaka, Douglas Mwangi (Zurich University of Applied Sciences (ZHAW)); Kendzia, Michael Jan (Zurich University of Applied Sciences (ZHAW)) |
| Abstract: | History teaches valuable lessons. This article examines the performance of the stock market during various boom and bust phases over the last forty years in the United States. By doing so, four previous manias and panics scenarios are analyzed, including the 1987 black Monday crash, the Dotcom bubble in the early 2000s, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2019 Covid pandemic. At the same time, the unemployment rate, the growth domestic product (GDP) per capita growth rate, the conference board's leading economic index and the wages growth rate are considered. Econometric models were finally used to study the markets relationships. The study finds that the labor market lags the stock market during manias and panics, supporting the hypothesis of a delayed response in the labor market. The unemployment rate reacted particularly late to the black Monday crash, the Dotcom bubble and the 2008 financial crisis. The leading economic index followed the stock market closest and with the slightest lag. Wages growth rate and the growth domestic product per capita growth rate reacted with varying degrees to each mania and panic episodes. |
| Keywords: | S&P 500, leading economic index, wage growth rate, unemployment rate |
| JEL: | B23 B27 E24 G15 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17276 |
| By: | Nadir ALTINOK; Claude DIEBOLT; Romain DIEBOLT |
| Abstract: | Cette contribution mobilise des données originales afin de retracer l’évolution de longue période des inégalités en termes de compétences scolaires des élèves français de 1970 à 2020. En nous appuyant sur les résultats de la France aux enquêtes internationales sur les acquis des élèves, nous proposons une analyse inédite des inégalités scolaires. Nous mesurons le prix de ces inégalités et aboutissons à la conclusion que la croissance économique française aurait progressé de 0, 5 % si une politique d’équité efficace avait été mise en place dès la fin des années 1970. Il s’agit là de la première recherche cliométrique, mobilisant une base de données édumétrique originale et des modalités contrefactuelles, consacrée à la dynamique structurelle et spatiale de la dimension inégalitaire des acquis scolaires en France et dans le monde |
| Keywords: | Qualité de l’éducation, Inégalités éducatives, Enquêtes internationales sur les acquis des élèves, PISA, TIMSS, PIRLS, Cliométrie, Edumétrie. |
| JEL: | C8 I2 N3 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2024-34 |
| By: | Jana, Arjun; Goli, Srinivas |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the linkages between changes in agricultural land use and population growth in India. We have employed long-term time series and a panel dataset of 1869 samples (267 districts * 7 time points from 1961 to 2021) to determine this. We theorize that there is an inverted ‘U-shape’ relationship between changes in population growth and agricultural land. Our findings suggest a positive impact of population growth on the change in cultivated land. However, this relationship was not static during 1961-2021. We found a two-stage split relationship with a breakpoint in 1981. Prior to the 1980s, there was a 12% expansion in cultivated land in response to a unit increase in population growth. During the post-1980s, with a unit decline in population growth, there was a 5% reduction in cultivated land. The findings were reaffirmed through several robustness checks: analyses using alternative outcome variables, alternative break points in a segmented regression model, and spatial modeling. From a policy perspective, this study advances the need for the reduction of population growth rate in high-fertility states and the adoption of superior technology for agricultural intensification and diversification to stop cropland expansion at the cost of environmental sustainability. |
| Keywords: | Population Growth; Agricultural Land; Land-Population Relationship; Dynamic Panel Data Analysis; Spatial Econometrics; Malthusian-Boserupian Debate |
| JEL: | J11 Q15 Q56 |
| Date: | 2023–11–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121803 |
| By: | Bhakta, Sayan; van Heel, Marin |
| Abstract: | Electron microscopy has been an important method for visualising biological structures and processes since the 1940s. The discovery of a practical vitreous-ice specimen-preparation technique in the mid-1980s [Adrian 1984] led to modern-day Cryogenic Electron Microscopy (Cryo-EM) which in recent years has become a major technique for studying the architecture of biological macromolecules. Many further instrumental and data-analysis improvements were established in the decades after the introduction of the “vitreous-ice” state of water. Especially the advent of direct electron detectors boosted the quality of the recorded data, allowing atomic-resolution information of biological complexes to be harvested in the early 2010s, developments that truly revolutionized the use of Cryo-EM in structural biology. Single-Particle Analysis (SPA) of isolated molecules, prepared in a thin layer of vitreous water, has proven a most successful approach in structural biology and now often supplants the use of classical techniques like X-ray crystallography, especially for large biological complexes. The ever-increasing number of researchers using Cryo-EM is reflected by the growing number of depositions in the Electron Microscopy Data Bank (EMDB). Explaining this methodology to a new generation of researchers has now become a priority. In writing this review we were reminded of some persistent confusions that emerged in the early days of Cryo-EM but that continue to muddle the field. A new problem with the prolific use of Graphic User Interfaces (GUIs), is that the underlying methodology is often no longer transparent to the users of these “black boxes”. Complicated procedures, well hidden behind a GUI window, may contain methodological flaws that the user must be aware of. The conquering of markets in this booming Cryo-EM field – crucial for developing new pharmaceuticals – must not prevail over scientific integrity. We here describe and critically review the principles of single-particle Cryo-EM. We warn for procedures that have gone astray and could generate serious problems especially in the quality-control of Single-Particle Cryogenic Electron Microscopy. |
| Date: | 2024–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:5empt |
| By: | Kevin L. Kliesen |
| Abstract: | At their September 2024 meeting, the FOMC began reducing the federal funds target rate and indicating the likelihood of additional reductions by the end of the year and into 2025. The FOMC took this action because of favorable inflation trends and some developing weakness in labor markets. A similar dynamic was at work from 1994 to early 1996. During this period, the FOMC undertook, first, a pre-emptive tightening in policy to combat emerging price pressures and then, second, a pre-emptive easing of monetary policy to counter the expectations of slower real GDP growth or outright recession. One key difference between the two episodes was the marked acceleration in inflation rate in 2021-2022 compared to 1994-95. Nevertheless, the end result of the 1994-96 episode was that the US economy avoided a recession and inflation by the end of 1997 was effectively at a level that is now deemed price stability. The purpose of this article is to outline the key arguments that Chairman Greenspan and the other FOMC participants deployed during the 1995-96 pre-emptive easing episode. |
| Keywords: | Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC); monetary policy; macroeconomy; inflation; recession |
| JEL: | E3 E4 E5 N1 |
| Date: | 2024–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:98865 |
| By: | Ewan McGaughey |
| Abstract: | How has our economic constitutional order developed, and which laws make our economy democratic? Democracy in politics is familiar and starts with ‘one person, one vote’, but economic democracy is less familiar. In its ideal, it means ‘three stakeholders, one voice’. Workers, investors, and service-users make different contribution types in the economy, so rules to give them voice differ and are still evolving. This paper gives a brief history of how economic democracy developed, the evolving theories, and practices for democratic workplaces, capital, and public enterprise. It then unpacks the laws that make it. First, a board of directors will answer to an enterprise’s stakeholders, not simply appointing itself via so called ‘independent’ directors. Second, workers elect at least one-third or properly one-half of a board of directors, rather than shareholders monopolising all votes, and worker cooperatives are encouraged. Third, all capital fund directors, whether pensions or mutuals, are majority-elected by beneficiaries, and they set the shareholder voting policies, not allowing asset managers or banks to vote on other people’s money in what they deem to be the interests of the ultimate investor. Fourth, in public enterprises, where private competition fails and consumers cannot truly ‘vote with their feet’, service-users hold voting rights for representatives on the board, rather than appointments being monopolised by the state or board incumbents. These norms are spreading, and overcoming evidence-free theories that excuse illegitimate corporate power. |
| Keywords: | Economy, democracy, labour, capital, public services, enterprise, vote |
| JEL: | K0 K11 H40 K22 K23 K31 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbr:cbrwps:wp539 |
| By: | Hufbauer, Gary Clyde |
| Abstract: | Subsidies to the semiconductor industry have been massive ever since chips were created in the 1950s. Yet, semiconductor subsidies have never been challenged in the GATT or WTO, and rarely in bilateral commercial relations. Reasons suggest a permanent vacuum of subsidy discipline for this and kindred industries. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:colfdi:302798 |
| By: | Popov, Vladimir; Konchakov, Roman; Didenko, Dmitry |
| Abstract: | The previous research with incomplete data revealed that zemstva expenditure on education per capita were higher in regions with low level of education, but these spending did not make much of a difference – human capital in these regions remained relatively low (Popov, Konchakov, Didenko, 2024). The results reported in this paper provide additional and more rigorous proof that zemstva activities and the increase in their spending for education in 1897-1913 contributed to the spread of primary education and to the decline in the inequality of the distribution of human capital not only between the regions |
| Keywords: | educational attainment, school enrollment, inequality, land distribution, growth |
| JEL: | D63 I24 J24 N93 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–09–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122162 |
| By: | Titouche Souhila (UMBB - Université M'Hamed Bougara Boumerdes); Arkoub Nabila (UMBB - Université M'Hamed Bougara Boumerdes) |
| Abstract: | Monetary policy in Algeria aims to control money supply to stimulate economic growth. This study examines the role of monetary policy tools in achieving economic growth from 1990 to 2020, focusing on the impact of Law 90-10. The findings suggest that monetary policy has had limited success in boosting growth due to the economy's heavy dependence on oil revenue for financing development projects. Despite efforts in implementing reforms and developmental schemes, desired growth rates have not been achieved. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy economic growth money supply code of money and credit JEL Classification Codes: E52 E63 F43 O23 O40 The Theoretical Framework of Economic Growth. Third Axis: The Reality, Monetary policy, economic growth, money supply, code of money and credit JEL Classification Codes: E52, E63, F43, O23, O40 The Theoretical Framework of Economic Growth. Third Axis: The Reality |
| Date: | 2023–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04680589 |
| By: | Claude DIEBOLT; Faustine Perrin |
| Abstract: | En octobre 2023, Claudia Goldin, professeure à l’Université de Harvard, a été récompensée par l’attribution du Prix Nobel de Sciences Économiques, en reconnaissance de ses contributions pionnières à l’économie, notamment pour son analyse approfondie de la place des femmes sur le marché du travail. Goldin a, en effet, exploré l’évolution du revenu et la participation des femmes au marché du travail dans la longue durée, mettant en évidence les causes de ces changements et les raisons de la persistance des inégalités entre hommes et femmes. Première femme titularisée au Département d’économie de Harvard et désormais première femme à remporter seule le Prix Nobel d’économie, son parcours illustre le franchissement des barrières académiques et l’élargissement des horizons. Ses recherches ont joué un rôle clé dans la reconnaissance et la valorisation du rôle des femmes dans le domaine économique, motivant ainsi une nouvelle génération de chercheurs à intégrer les dynamiques de genre et les perspectives à long terme dans leurs travaux. |
| Keywords: | Claudia Goldin, Nobel, inégalités de genre, cliométrie. |
| JEL: | J16 N3 J2 J7 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2024-36 |
| By: | Garcia-Murillo, Martha; MacInnes, Ian |
| Abstract: | The rapid evolution of information technologies has led to a society with worldwide connectivity, efficiency, and convenience. Yet these technological innovations are not free of perils, as they can also negatively impact our economic, political, and social well-being. This paper analyzes the tradeoffs between technological progress and its potential harms, particularly in the United States. Recognizing the historical benefits of digital technologies while also being mindful of their negative consequences, we highlight the complex market dynamics, political influences, and societal forces that determine whether policymakers can pass legislation and regulatory measures to mitigate the potential harm caused by disruptive innovations. The research question driving this paper is: How do market dynamics, political influences, and societal forces interact to shape the prospects of introducing effective legislation and regulatory measures for digital technologies in the United States? In the absence of legal frameworks, what alternative entities are there to mitigate a technology's negative impacts? The research methodology entailed a comprehensive analysis of the scholarly literature and a review of secondary sources related to digital technologies. Synthesizing insights from academic works, reports, and studies, this paper analyzes the multifaceted forces influencing the introduction of legislation and regulatory frameworks for digital technologies in the United States. |
| Keywords: | Digital regulation, social media, digital markets, algorithms, artificial intelligence |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302468 |