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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Kemeny, Tom; Storper, Michael |
| Abstract: | Spatial income disparities have increased in the US since 1980, a pattern linked to major social, economic, and political challenges. Yet, today’s spatial inequality, and how it relates to the past, remains insufficiently well understood. The primary contribution of this article is to demonstrate a deep polarization in the American spatial system—yet one whose character differs from that commonly reported on in the literature. The increase in spatial inequality since 1980 is almost entirely driven by a small number of populous, economically important, and resiliently high-income superstar city-regions. But we also show that the rest of the system exhibits a long-run pattern of income convergence over the study period. A secondary contribution is historical: today’s superstars have sat durably atop the urban hierarchy since at least 1940. Third, we describe six distinctive pathways of development that regions follow between 1940 and 2019, with certain locations catching up, falling behind, and surging ahead. We explore the role played by initial endowments in driving locations down these pathways, finding population, education, industrial structure, and immigrant attraction to be key distinguishing features. These insights are enabled by a fourth contribution: methodologically, we use group-based trajectory modeling—an approach new to the field that integrates top-down and bottom-up views of the evolving national spatial system. We conclude by exploring implications for the mid-twenty-first century. |
| Keywords: | cities; convergence; economic history; geography; inequality |
| JEL: | D30 R10 |
| Date: | 2023–08–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120155 |
| By: | Elena Korchmina (University of Bologna); Mikołaj Malinowski (Groningen University) |
| Abstract: | We measure pre- and post-tax income inequality in Moscow Province in 1811. We collect new data on incomes for 7, 399 asset-holding households, including all registered aristocrats and merchants. We estimate the average incomes of 21 additional social groups using financial records from government and private businesses. Combining this data, we construct a social table and measure top-tier income concentration, Gini coefficient, and the Extraction Ratio. Our findings reveal that serfdom resulted in high inequality and extraction levels as well as low social mobility in spite of low levels of enforcement by the state. We compare our results with those for 1904 and find that, in spite despite emancipation, inequality remained high during the 19th century. Those findings are emblematic of deep historical roots and the persistence of high inequality levels in Russia. |
| Keywords: | Russian Empire, Wealth, Income, Inequality, Pre-Industrial World |
| JEL: | N00 N13 N33 J16 D63 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0266 |
| By: | Gary Richardson; Marco Del Angel; Michael Gou |
| Abstract: | Dun’s Review began publishing monthly data on bankruptcies by branch of business during the 1890s. Those series evolved through many iterations. This essay reconstructs the series from 1895 to 1935 and discusses how it can be used for economic analysis. |
| JEL: | K29 K35 L6 L80 L90 N12 N13 N21 N22 N51 N52 N61 N62 N71 N72 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32928 |
| By: | Hunter, Janet |
| Abstract: | The decade following the Great Kantō Earthquake of 1923 witnessed a proliferation of writings by officials, academics, businessmen, and journalists on the economic consequences of the disaster. This abundance of contemporary analysis stands in strong contrast to the relative scarcity of subsequent scholarly studies of many aspects of the disaster’s economic impact. In this article, I suggest that part of the reason for this relative lacuna lies in broader trends within economics and economic history scholarship. In particular, a focus on quantitative analysis and macro-level indicators has led to the conclusion that over the longer term, the Kantō earthquake, like similar disasters elsewhere, did not matter that much for the development of the country’s economy. I also show that although recent advances in economic theory, especially in the economics of disasters, can strengthen historians’ analyses of the economic consequences of the 1923 disaster, many of these ‘new’ conceptual frameworks were foreshadowed by contemporary commentators seeking to analyze the impact of the disaster on the economic life of the nation. Ikeuchi Yukichika’s book Shinsai Keizai Shigan, published in December 1923, is a particularly good example of how, just like recent disaster economists, Japanese contemporaries viewed the analysis of markets as the key to understanding both the economic impact of the disaster and how best to rebuild Japan’s economy. |
| Keywords: | earthquake; disaster; economy; historiography; markets |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2023–08–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124668 |
| By: | Gabriel P. Mathy; Yongchen Zhao |
| Abstract: | Was the Depression forecastable? In this paper, we test how effective diffusion indexes are in forecasting the deepest recession in U.S. history: the Great Depression. Moore (1961) considered the effectiveness of diffusion indexes, though retrospectively and not out-of-sample. We reconstruct Moore's diffusion indexes for this historical period and make our own comparable indexes for out-of-sample predictions. We find that diffusion indexes, including the horizon-specific ones we produce, can nowcast turning points fairly well. Forecasting remains difficult, but our results suggest that the initial downturn in 1929 may be forecastable months before the Great Crash. This is a novel result, as previous authors had generally found the Depression was not forecastable. |
| Keywords: | Diffusion Index; Great Depression; Forecasting |
| JEL: | C53 E32 E37 N12 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amu:wpaper:2024-03 |
| By: | H. Spencer Banzhaf; William Mathews; Randall Walsh |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between racial segregation and environmental equity in Pittsburgh from 1910 to 1940. Utilizing newly digitized historical data on the spatial distribution of air pollution in what was likely America's most polluted city, we analyze how racial disparities in exposure to air pollution evolved during this period of heightening segregation. Our findings reveal that black residents experienced significantly higher levels of pollution compared to their white counterparts, and this disparity increased over time. We identify within-city moves as a critical factor exacerbating this inequity, with black movers facing increased pollution exposure. We also provide evidence of the capitalization of air pollution into housing markets. Taken as a whole, our results underscore the importance of considering environmental factors in discussions of racial and economic inequalities. |
| JEL: | H44 I15 N30 N92 Q53 R2 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32950 |
| By: | Titus Galama (University of Southern California’s Center for Economic and Social Research, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Andrei Munteanu (Université du Québec à Montréal); Kevin Thom (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee) |
| Abstract: | Using linked records from the 1880 to 1940 full-count United States decennial censuses, we estimate the effects of parental exposure to compulsory schooling (CS) laws on the human capital outcomes of children, exploiting the staggered roll-out of state CS laws in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. CS reforms not only increased the educational attainment of exposed individuals, but also that of their children. We find that one extra year of maternal (paternal) exposure to CS increased children’s educational attainment by 0.015 (0.016) years - larger than the average effects on the parents themselves, and larger than the few existing intergenerational estimates from studies of more recent reforms. We find particularly large effects on black families and first-born sons. Exploring mechanisms, we find suggestive evidence that higher parental exposure to CS affected children’s outcomes through higher own human capital, marriage to more educated spouses, and a higher propensity to reside in neighborhoods with greater school resources (teacher-to-student ratios) and with higher average educational attainment. |
| Keywords: | Education, Economic Development, Returns to Education |
| JEL: | I1 I2 I24 I25 I26 |
| Date: | 2024–01–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20240006 |
| By: | Sergio A. Correia; Stephan Luck; Emil Verner |
| Abstract: | Why do banks fail? We create a panel covering most commercial banks from 1865 through 2023 to study the history of failing banks in the United States. Failing banks are characterized by rising asset losses, deteriorating solvency, and an increasing reliance on expensive non-core funding. Commonalities across failing banks imply that failures are highly predictable using simple accounting metrics from publicly available financial statements. Predictability is high even in the absence of deposit insurance, when depositor runs were common. Bank-level fundamentals also forecast aggregate waves of bank failures during systemic banking crises. Altogether, our evidence suggests that the ultimate cause of bank failures and banking crises is almost always and everywhere a deterioration of bank fundamentals. Bank runs can be rejected as a plausible cause of failure for most failures in the history of the U.S. and are most commonly a consequence of imminent failure. Depositors tend to be slow to react to an increased risk of bank failure, even in the absence of deposit insurance. |
| JEL: | G01 G21 N20 N21 N22 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32907 |
| By: | Marilena Marin (Ovidius University of Constanța, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The need to protect individuals who lack the capacity to protect themselves has led the legislator to impose a set of conduct rules in this regard. The role and purpose of establishing these rules have been dictated by the legal order encountered in each era, in various forms, according to the level of evolution and development of society. This serves as the starting point of this study, considering that the institution of guardianship represents a longstanding concern, which we have continued to analyze over time, drawing on the doctrine and jurisprudence encountered up to this point. Within the scope of this work, we will bring to attention aspects of the ancient world related to the institution of representation through guardianship and curatorship, after which we will focus on the institution of curatorship as we find it in modern days. |
| Keywords: | curatorship, guardianship, history of law, Roman Law, Private Law |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0374 |
| By: | Marzian, Johannes; Laabs, Julian; Müller, Johannes; Requate, Tilman |
| Abstract: | While our understanding of long-term trends in material wealth inequality in prehistoric societies has expanded in recent decades, we know little about long-term trends in other dimensions of wealth and about social developments within particular societal segments. This paper provides the first evidence of inequality in relational wealth within the upper societal segment of a supra-regional network of communities in prehistoric Central Europe over the first four millennia BCE. To this end, we compiled a novel dataset of 5000 single-funeral burial mounds and employed burial mound volume as a proxy for the buried individual’s relational wealth. Our analysis reveals a consistently high level of inequality among the buried individuals, showing a wave-like pattern with an increasing trend over time. Additionally, our findings show temporal shifts in the size of the upper societal segment. Based on a review of archeological and paleo-environmental evidence, the temporal change in inequality may be explained by technological progress, climate and population dynamics, trade and social networks, and/or sociopolitical transformations. |
| Keywords: | Economic History, Social Inequality, Burial Mound Data, Waves of Inequality, Prehistorical Central Europe |
| JEL: | N33 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:302043 |
| By: | Sunil Thapa (Western Sydney University, Australia) |
| Abstract: | Substantial political and economic exchanges have marked the historical relationship between Nepal and India. They maintain their diplomatic relations through high-level visits, trade initiatives, and financial investments. Moreover, India has assisted Nepal in the domain of infrastructure development but is motivated by geopolitical considerations and preferences. The Treaty of Segouli, concluded in 1816 between the Kingdom of Nepal and British India, led to Nepal's relinquishment of a substantial territorial expansion. This began the emergence of realpolitik in Nepal, which facilitated foreign intervention in the country's political affairs. India has exerted a significant hegemonic influence on Nepal's internal and external affairs since its independence from British rule in 1947. This influence has been particularly evident since establishing the 'Peace and Friendship Treaty' between India and Nepal in 1950. India has played an active role in Nepal's political movements, introduced the concept of a common river, and imposed its desires and interests through river water agreements. Additionally, India has infringed upon Nepalese territories and utilized Nepalese political parties and their leaders to create a political-economic environment in Nepal that benefits India. Furthermore, India has a covert presence in selecting Prime Ministers in Nepal. Therefore, these factors collectively suggest that India's influence and domination infringe upon Nepal's sovereignty and independence. |
| Keywords: | relations, strategic interests, preferences, hegemonic, sovereignty |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0369 |
| By: | Byerlee, D. |
| Abstract: | Drawing on an extensive review of available documents and my own personal recollections, this history describes the research and capacity building activities in Africa from 1963-1978 of the then Department of Agricultural Economics (AEC) of Michigan State University. The aim is to analyze how MSU came to be a leader in food and agricultural economics related to Africa that endures today. I first review the involvement of AEC faculty in the institutional building project at the University of Nigeria in the 1960s that involved the two main protagonists of the history. First from 1965-1971, Glenn L. Johnson initiated and led large projects to analyze and plan the Nigerian agricultural sector, based on paper and pencil projections and then pioneering simulation modeling. Second, Carl K. Eicher from 1970 built an extensive program of microlevel research involving intensive household surveys mostly focused on Sierra Leone. Both had important legacies in follow-on AEC activities throughout Africa and in the agricultural development profession, more generally. I argue that Eicher ‘seized the moment’ to aggressively recruit African graduate students and others with interests in Africa that through their thesis work and later employment as AEC faculty, became the bedrock of AEC’s food security programs in Africa. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession |
| Date: | 2024–09–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midasp:345227 |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou (The World Bank) |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:660 |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou (The World Bank) |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:662 |
| By: | Pramila Bakhati (Lumbini Buddhist University, Lumbini, Nepal) |
| Abstract: | Buddhism is typically understood and interpreted as a life philosophy, a religion, a discipline, and a teaching-learning process. Buddha's primary objective in his investigation was to alleviate human suffering by identifying its root cause and revealing the truth about the world. Consequently, the Buddha discovered the 'Four Noble Truths', his first teaching after attaining enlightenment in the sixth century BCE. In the 'Four Noble Truths', the word 'truth' refers to the investigation of reality (Yun 2014). Buddha's teachings emphasized the importance of non-discrimination against individuals based on their caste, religion, gender, or any other form of identity and would not harm any species (Finn 2013; Wei 2003). Buddha devoted 45 years to imparting the Dhamma for this reason. Therefore, he embraced the principle of inclusiveness, welcoming all who desired to learn and comprehend the Dhamma (Liu & Tee 2014). As a result, he taught the path to enlightenment to achieve happiness. Buddha utilized various teaching methods and approaches: interactive and inquiry-based, question-and-answer sessions, illustrations, narrative, analytical and experimental approaches, mindfulness and critical thinking, examples to clarify concepts, ethical and character education during his lifetime. These techniques are still highly pertinent and applicable in contemporary classrooms. This paper examines the purpose of imparting the Dhamma, Buddha's pedagogy, and its application in the present context. |
| Keywords: | Four Noble Truths, Noble Eightfold path, Buddha teaching |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0373 |
| By: | Matheus R. Grasselli; Lane P. Hughston |
| Abstract: | As an introduction to a Special Issue of International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance in Honour of the Memory of Thomas Robert Hurd we present a brief synopsis of Tom Hurd's scientific career and a bibliography of his scientific publications. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.16891 |
| By: | Genaro Mart\'in Damiani |
| Abstract: | Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models, which are nowadays a crucial element of the set of quantitative tools that policy-makers have, did not emerge spontaneously. They rely on previously established ideas in Economics and relatively recent advancements in Mathematics. I aim to provide a comprehensive coverage of their history, starting from the pioneering Neoclassical general equilibrium theories and eventually reaching the New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS). I thoroughly present the mathematical tools involved in formulating a DSGE model. I claim that this history has a mixed nature rather than an absolutist or relativist one, that the NNS may have emerged due to the complementary nature of New Classical and New Keynesian theories, and that the recent adoption and development of DSGE models by central banks from different countries has entailed a departure from the goal of building a universally valid theory that Economics has always had. The latter means that DSGE modeling has landed not without loss of generality. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.00812 |
| By: | Salehin, Anik; Sen, Topon; Munia, Momtaz |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the diverse economic and social determinants that have shaped the developmental trajectory of Bangladesh. It explores the historical evolution of the country from its pre-independence struggles through its post-independence recovery, resilience, and eventual emergence as a success story in the field of development economics. The paper examines Bangladesh's transformation from a war-torn least developed nation into a rapidly advancing middle-income economy, highlighting key factors such as the macroeconomic policy environment, trade and investment climate, agricultural technology adoption, and remittance flows. On the social front, the analysis delves into demographic changes, education, health, gender dynamics, and the impacts of urbanization. Additionally, the study addresses persistent challenges related to poverty, inequality, environmental sustainability, and governance, alongside the necessity for technological advancement. Through this multifaceted examination, the paper seeks to elucidate the policies that have driven Bangladesh's growth in the past and those required to sustain and further enhance this growth in the future. |
| Keywords: | Bangladesh; Economy; History: Social Welfare; FDI; Remittance |
| JEL: | E0 F0 F6 G0 H1 N1 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121933 |
| By: | Hoyos, Mateo (Center for Research and Teaching in Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper documents that the relationship between tariffs and growth varies significantly with economic structure. Using a panel of 161 countries from 1960 to 2019 and employing a local projections difference-in-differences strategy, I show that tariff reductions are associated with higher GDP per capita in manufacturer countries but lower GDP per capita in nonmanufacturer ones. I then reveal that these results are consistent with, and possibly explained by, heterogeneous changes in productivity, capital accumulation, and the manufacturing share of GDP. The heterogeneity is further confirmed by a comprehensive set of robustness checks. The findings suggest that the recent rise in protectionism in manufacturer countries might end up being harmful, and that existing calls for further liberalization in nonmanufacturers could have unintended consequences. |
| Date: | 2024–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:v75aw |
| By: | Nader AlKathiri; Abdulelah Darandary (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | Using a sample of 94 countries, we analyze the contribution of energy to cross-country economic growth and convergence since 1980. By extending the traditional frontier approach to include energy as an additional factor of production, we decompose economic growth into components attributable to technological catch-up (movement toward or away from the frontier), technological change (shifts in the world production frontier) and changes in factor inputs per unit of labor (movement along the production frontier). |
| Date: | 2024–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2024-dp14 |
| By: | Lauren Cohen; Umit Gurun; Katie Moon; Paula Suh |
| Abstract: | Analyzing millions of patents granted by the USPTO between 1976 and 2020, we find a pattern where specific patents only rise to prominence after considerable time has passed. Amongst these late-blooming influential patents, we show that there are key players (patent hunters) who consistently identify and develop them. Although initially overlooked, these late-blooming patents have significantly more influence on average than early-recognized patents and are associated with significantly more new product launches. Patent hunters, as early detectors and adopters of these late-blooming patents, are also associated with significant positive rents. Their adoption of these overlooked patents is associated with a 6.4% rise in sales growth (t = 3.02), a 2.2% increase in Tobin’s Q (t = 3.91), and a 2.2% increase in new product offerings (t = 2.97). We instrument for patent hunting, and find strong evidence that these benefits are causally due to patent hunting. The rents associated with patent hunting on average exceed those of the original patent creators themselves. Patents hunted are closer to the core technology of patent hunters, more peripheral to writers, and in less competitive spaces. Lastly, patent hunting appears to be a persistent firm characteristic and to have an inventor-level component. |
| JEL: | L1 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32965 |
| By: | Cave, Martin |
| Abstract: | Forty years have passed since an inflation-adjusted price cap, widely called RPI-X, was proposed as a way of controlling prices in the UK’s newly privatised monopoly telecommunications company by a form of incentive regulation. The paper traces developments since then in several jurisdictions, within the context of a wider field of changing regulatory governance involving legislatures and governments as well as regulatory agencies. The focus is on, first, the experience of increasing complexity of the incentive schemes adopted, and second on the growing political salience of regulatory decisions which adds goals such as net zero, with more direct quantitative targets, to maximising consumer welfare. The implications of these changes for regulatory interventions are considered. |
| Keywords: | incentive regulation; network price caps; competition in networks; Springer deal |
| JEL: | L51 |
| Date: | 2024–08–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124579 |
| By: | Christopher K. Allsup; Irene S. Gabashvili |
| Abstract: | This paper describes how a time-varying Markov model was used to forecast housing development at a master-planned community during a transition from high to low growth. Our approach draws on detailed historical data to model the dynamics of the market participants, producing results that are entirely data-driven and free of bias. While traditional time series forecasting methods often struggle to account for nonlinear regime changes in growth, our approach successfully captures the onset of buildout as well as external economic shocks, such as the 1990 and 2008-2011 recessions and the 2021 post-pandemic boom. This research serves as a valuable tool for urban planners, homeowner associations, and property stakeholders aiming to navigate the complexities of growth at master-planned communities during periods of both system stability and instability. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.14214 |
| By: | Aurelia Sabiescu (School 117, Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | Through his enduring work and innovative forays as a pioneering researcher and true intellectual, De Martino remains a prolific culture maker and a pioneer in the field of ethno-anthropology, contributing to a remarkable extent, including advancing research in the field and continuing to stimulate, in a substantial way, those interested in following his path. In addition to his vast theoretical background, De Martino’s genuine personality has always guided him to a form of knowledge based on experience, with his field research developing innovative methodological approaches - even through the integration of new technologies – confirming De Martino as a true guide in applied ethnological research. Through the extensive use of photography as an essential tool for critical analysis of scientific evidence, all research techniques undergo transformation. The author advocates for the necessity of expanding the study of De Martino’s work within Romanian academia, particularly focusing on the relationship of the Italian scholar with Romanian folklore, treated and viewed in comparison with the forms of manifestation of Italian popular culture. In this exploration, fascinating aspects and similarities of tarantism with the ritual elements of the Romanian Căluș can be detected. The Căluș dance, included in UNESCO’s List of Intangible Cultural Heritage, stands as an important national emblem and a symbol of Romanian identity. |
| Keywords: | Romanian folklore, tarantism, Romanian căluș |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0383 |
| By: | Alain Paquet (University of Quebec in Montreal); Christophe Barrette (University of Quebec in Montreal) |
| Abstract: | Using US quarterly data from 1967 to 2023, which includes the surge and subsequent decline in inflation following the pandemic, as well as the significant expansionary monetary policy from quantitative easing preceding a renewed focus on bringing inflation back to the 2% target, we resort to both traditional and new econometric tools to assess the stability of the sign and size of key macroeconomic variables’ responses to monetary shocks. Our results reinforce and confirm the importance of a broad Divisia measure for understanding monetary policy transmission and making informed policy decisions. In particular, the overall shape of the price responses to a Divisia-based monetary shock is particularly consistent throughout the entire sample. Monetary policy shocks from the fed funds rate or shadow policy interest rate alone fail to produce responses free from empirical puzzles and consistent with expected intuition, for both earlier and extended sample periods. In contrast, Divisia measures generate IRFs that are puzzle-free and align with economic theory and intuition. They are empirically relevant in explaining output and price dynamics from the late 60s to today. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy shock, Divisia monetary aggregates, SVAR, Time-Varying Parameter Structural VAR, output and price level |
| JEL: | E5 E51 E52 E3 E31 E32 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bbh:wpaper:24-04 |
| By: | Forbes, Kristin; Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes cycles in policy interest rates in 24 advanced economies over 1970–2024, combining a new application of business cycle methodology with rich time-series decompositions of the shocks driving rate movements. “Rate cycles” have gradually evolved over time, with less frequent cyclical turning points, more moderate tightening phases, and a larger role for global shocks. Against this backdrop, the 2020–24 rate cycle has been unprecedented in many dimensions: it features the fastest pivot from active easing to a tightening phase, followed by the most globally synchronized tightening, and an unusually long period of holding rates constant. It also exhibits the largest role for global shocks—with global demand shocks still dominant, but an increased role for global supply shocks in explaining interest rate movements. Inflation and the growth in output and employment have, on average, largely returned to historical norms for this stage in a tightening phase. Any recalibration of interest rates going forward should be gradual, however, and account for the interactions between increasingly important global factors and domestic circumstances, combined with uncertainty as to whether rate cycles have reverted to pre-2008 patterns. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; Oil prices; demand shocks; supply shocks; ECB; Federal Reserve |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E51 Q43 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121791 |
| By: | Syaikhu Usman; M. Sulton Mawardi |
| Keywords: | special market operation, economic crisis |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:3668 |
| By: | Manzin, Alejandro; Catelén, Ana Laura; Lacaze, María Victoria |
| Abstract: | Este trabajo describe comparativamente los ciclos económicos de Argentina, Brasil y Chile durante el período 1996-2020, procurando contribuir al estudio comparado de economías en desarrollo. Se emplean complementariamente dos enfoques metodológicos, el clásico, centrado en las oscilaciones del nivel agregado de la actividad económica y el de crecimiento, que considera el desvío de la actividad respecto a su tendencia de largo plazo. Las fuentes de información son secundarias y provienen de organismos oficiales de estadísticas nacionales e internacionales. Los resultados obtenidos muestran similitudes en la dinámica económica de los casos estudiados, como la contraciclicidad de la balanza comercial y la prociclicidad del resultado fiscal. Entre 1996-2003, los tres países enfrentaron recesiones marcadas, destacándose la crisis financiera argentina en 2001-2002. Entre 2004-2011, el crecimiento económico regional fue robusto debido al auge de precios de commodities, aunque también afectado por la crisis subprime, en 2009. Entre 2012-2020 se observó una desaceleración económica común, exacerbada por la crisis de COVID-19. Entre los tres casos se identifican diferencias en términos de volatilidad/estabilidad. Las fases contractivas resultaron más intensas en Argentina mientras que Chile exhibió mayor estabilidad relativa. La sincronización cíclica aumentó entre 2004-2011, durante el auge de los commodities, especialmente entre Argentina y Brasil. |
| Keywords: | Ciclos Económicos; Volatilidad; Análisis Comparativo; Argentina; Brasil; Chile; 1996-2020; |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:4176 |
| By: | Alexandra Tsvetkova |
| Abstract: | To mark the 40th anniversary of the OECD Local Employment and Economic Development (LEED) Programme, this paper examines determinants and consequences of employment resilience, or lack of, in European NUTS3/TL3/TL3 regions over the last 40 years. Descriptive evidence shows that the least resilient regions (those with the largest percentage drop in employment during a recession) slip to persistently lower post-recession employment-to-population ratio trajectories. On the other hand, regions with higher productivity pre-recession lost proportionally fewer jobs during a recession and were more likely to recover to the pre-recession employment levels (except for the recession induced by the COVID-19 pandemic). Overall, the findings point to the ability of productivity to serve as a shield against negative employment impacts of economic crises. |
| JEL: | J01 O18 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:cfeaaa:2024/08-en |
| By: | Francesco Marchionne (Indiana University, Kelley School of Business); Noemi Giampaoli (Polytechnic University of Marche, Department of Economics and Social Sciences,); Matteo Renghini (LUISS "Guido Carli" University, Department of Economics and Finance) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how institutional quality affects the probability of banking and twin crises using a panel of 138 countries from 1996 to 2017. We find that better institutions mitigate the probability of financial distress. Such a shielding effect occurs unambiguously only when a synthetic index is extracted from different proxies of institutional quality aspects. On the contrary, specific measures of institutional quality show some heterogeneities. In particular, dimensions more closely related to regulatory quality and corruption mitigation decrease the probability of financial instability, while measures oriented toward social capital may have null or perverse effects. Financial structure, cultural differences, and international agreements do not affect our findings. Results are robust to several econometric exercises. |
| Keywords: | crises, banks, institutions, governance |
| JEL: | G01 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wmofir:187 |
| By: | Cañon, Carlos; Gerba, Eddie; Pambira, Alberto; Stoja, Evarist |
| Abstract: | We examine how the tail risk of currency returns over the past 20 years were impacted by central bank monetary and liquidity measures across the globe with an original and unique dataset that we make publicly available. Using a standard factor model, we derive theoretical measures of tail risks of currency returns which we then relate to the various policy instruments employed by central banks. We find empirical evidence for the existence of a cross-border transmission channel of central bank policy through the FX market. The tail impact is particularly sizeable for asset purchases and swap lines. The effects last for up to 1 month, and are proportionally higher for joint QE actions. This cross-border source of tail risk is largely undiversifiable, even after controlling for the U.S. dollar dominance and the effects of its own monetary policy stance. |
| Keywords: | currency tail risk; liquidity measures; systematic and idiosyncratic components of tail risk; unconventional and conventional monetary policy |
| JEL: | F3 G3 J1 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125291 |
| By: | Ewan McGaughey |
| Abstract: | The corporation is among the most important institutions of our age, and yet it is eclipsed by the enterprise. Corporate law theories have asserted that a corporation is a ‘person’, a ‘nexus of contracts’, that it has ‘proprietary foundations’, or is a ‘concession of the state’. These theories wander across every Roman law category – persons, obligations, property, and public body. None work, because corporations combine elements of each category, but are more. A better tradition sees the corporation as a ‘social institution’, and as one legal form of ‘enterprise’. Corporate law, traditionally confined, is not enough to understand corporations. We must integrate labour, competition, tax, tort, human rights, and public law, because this full body of enterprise law decisively changes corporate finance and governance. It also changes the rights that corporations distribute to investors, workers or service-users. In law, the concept of the ‘enterprise’ (or ‘undertaking’ or ‘group’) has become a dominant legal tool, because it adopts a functional understanding of firms that matches economic reality, eclipsing legal form. In that reality, most major listed corporations are under sector-specific regulation, including in banking, telecoms, big tech, or energy, as are corporations without shareholders such as hospitals or universities. Broadening our horizon enables us to teach how businesses, regulated industries, and public services – all major corporations – actually work. It lays the foundation for accurate empirical research. By shifting our vision to enterprise law, we may contemplate our entire economic constitution as it truly is. |
| Keywords: | Enterprise, corporation, regulation, sector-specific, public services, labour, shareholders, investors, social institution |
| JEL: | K00 K2 K21 K22 K23 K31 K32 K34 L12 L13 L2 L21 L22 L32 L33 L53 L6 L7 L8 L9 Q1 Q2 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbr:cbrwps:wp542 |
| By: | Kalaitzi, Athanasia |
| Abstract: | This study examines the causality between basic, technology-intensive, and differentiated manufacturing exports and economic growth in Kuwait using data from 1970 to 2021 and two augmented production function models: one with natural resource exports (Model 1) and the other without on both sides of the model (Model 2). The Johansen cointegration and the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) bound tests are conducted to examine the long-run relationship between the variables. In addition, the Granger causality test in a vector autoregressive framework (VAR) and the Toda–Yamamoto test are employed to explore the directions of the short- and long-run causality between variables, respectively. The empirical results of Model 1 indicate that neither of the decomposed manufacturing exports directly causes economic growth in the short or long run at any conventional significance level, whereas natural resource exports cause economic growth, basic and technology-intensive manufactured exports in the short-run at the 5% level. Model 2 estimations confirm the absence of direct causality between decomposed manufacturing exports and economic growth, whereas a long-run causality runs from output net of natural resource exports to basic manufactured exports at the 10% level. Both model estimations indicate that all the variables jointly cause economic growth and basic manufactured exports in the short and long run, directly or indirectly through imports, confirming the existence of a circular causation. These findings can serve as the basis for designing specific export–import policies to foster diversification and a sustainable economic growth in line with Kuwait’s Vision 2035. |
| Keywords: | causality; Kuwait; manufactured exports; natural resource exports; Springer deal |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124521 |
| By: | Martha Jemio Salas (ORBITA); Ariel Tamayo Nava (ORBITA); Melvy Plata Burgoa (ORBITA); Reynaldo San Martín Camacho (ORBITA) |
| Abstract: | Se muestra la vocación y los recursos turísticos de Escoma, los aprendizajes alcanzados a lo largo de la asesoría de ORBITA y la percepción de los turistas que visitaron el destino. |
| Keywords: | Turismo comunitario, recursos turísticos, percepciones, Escoma, Bolivia |
| JEL: | L83 D12 L26 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iad:obitwp:2419 |
| By: | HARIT, ADITYA |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an economic model that explores the optimisation of tax rates and reaching an equilibrium within a generalised feudal economy. This model examines the relationships between agricultural output, taxation and income distribution among the prominent societal classes of the feudal system. This societal class comprises the village headman, feudal lord, king, peasants, and merchants. Through the tools of Calculus methods, I try to derive the optimal conditions for maximising the tax rates of these societal class as per the agricultural production function. Additionally, I try to integrate a business cycle model which try to reflect economic fluctuations. |
| Keywords: | Feudalism, Economic Dependency, Optimization, Business Cycle |
| JEL: | A19 C02 N00 P0 P00 |
| Date: | 2024–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121771 |