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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
|
Issue of 2024‒08‒19
thirty-one papers chosen by |
| By: | Grant Fleming; Zhangxin (Frank) Liu; David Merrett; Simon Ville |
| Abstract: | A developing literature points to the growing significance of women in the Australian colonial economy, particularly through their role as business owners. We are interested to know whether they were also active company investors, as evidence from other countries such as Britain and America has revealed to be the case. We investigate the Australian Gaslight Company, one of Australia’s oldest and largest enterprises and which has extensive surviving records, to shine a light on the growing role of female investors across a century since its formation in 1836. We examine who these women were, how they traded, and what influence they held within the company. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:hpaper:121 |
| By: | Fernihough, Alan; Colvin, Christopher L.; McLaughlin, Eoin |
| Abstract: | Why do we choose one language over another? Rival views see language frontiers as exogenous, driven by policy, or endogenous, determined by social, cultural and economic forces. We study language loss in nineteenth-century Ireland's bilingual society using individual-level data from the 1901 census. Our analysis highlights the intergenerational influence of the education received by a community's elders on subsequent generations' language use. This is consistent with an endogenous demand for English driving language choice because the elder generation's literacy was acquired by attending privately financed voluntary primary schools in a period that predates state-funded compulsory schooling. |
| Keywords: | language loss, bilingualism, education policy, census data, Ireland |
| JEL: | I24 I28 N33 N93 R12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:300647 |
| By: | Stephan Heblich; David Krisztian Nagy; Alex Trew; Yanos Zylberberg |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how cities’ industrial structure shapes their life and death. Our analys is exploits the large heterogeneity in the early composition of English and Welsh cities. We extract built-up clusters from early historical maps, identify settlements at the on set of the nineteenth century, and isolate exogenous variation in the nature of their rise during the transformation of the economy by the end of the nineteenth century. We then estimate the causal impact of cities’ population and industrial specialization on their later dynamics. We find that cities specializing in a small number of industries decline in the long run. We develop a dynamic spatial model of cities to isolate the forces which govern their life and death.Intratemporally, the model captures the role of amenities, land, local productivity and trade in explaining the distribution of economic activity across industries and cities. Intertemporally, the model can disentangle the role of aggregate industry dynamics from city-specific externalities. We find that the long-run dynamics of English and Welsh cities is explained to a large extent by such dynamic externalities `a la Jacobs. |
| Keywords: | specialization; cities over time; quantitative economic geography. |
| JEL: | F63 N93 O14 R13 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gla:glaewp:2023_09 |
| By: | Karp, Morris |
| Abstract: | During his life, Friedrich Hayek drastically changed his evaluation of Aristotle’s role in the history of political and economic thought. Initially considering Aristotle as one of the forerunners of the liberal tradition, he then came to consider Aristotle’s philosophy as the source of collectivist thought. By examining both published and unpublished materials, this article shows that Hayek’s attack on Aristotle in The Fatal Conceit is authentic and puts Hayek’s affirmations on Aristotle in the context of his intellectual development. Hayek’s rejection of Aristotle can be related to his increasing emphasis on the abstract nature of the rules governing complex phenomena. However, this does not explain why Hayek felt compelled to take such a stance on an ancient philosopher who was highly esteemed in the school he belonged to. Hayek’s abandonment of the established view on the Aristotelian roots of the Austrian school can be better understood by considering the intellectual environment of his time. His eventual adoption of Popper’s point of view on Aristotle meant taking a stance against Polany’s democratic socialism and distancing himself from Röpke’s catholic conservatism. |
| Date: | 2024–07–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:zp4wq |
| By: | Alfred Duncan; Charles Nolan |
| Abstract: | Adam Smith promoted free banking—private and compe ve bank notes backed by gold. He also supported restricons on banks. This paper analyses Smith’s views and the era in which they developed. We suggest his regulaons were a backstop against the risks banks posed to depositors but primarily to monetary stability. In modern parlance, Smith promoted macroprudenal regulaons to underpin monetary stability, just like Friedman and Schwartz (1963) viewed the FDIC in 1933 in the US. We discuss why Smith’s view of efficient banking was not realised. Ulmately, bank regulaon developed a microprudenal focus running aground in the 2008/9 financial crash. The rising prominence of macroprudenal regulaon may provide a chance to reorientate banking regulaon to support monetary stability. The early signs are not especially promising. |
| Keywords: | Adam Smith, banking |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gla:glaewp:2023_08 |
| By: | Hornbeck, Richard; Michaels, Guy; Rauch, Ferdinand |
| Abstract: | We examine "agglomeration shadows" that emerge around large cities, which discourage some economic activities in nearby areas. Identifying agglomeration shadows is complicated, however, by endogenous city formation and "wave interference" that we show in simulations. We use the locations of ancient ports near the Mediterranean, which seeded modern cities, to estimate agglomeration shadows cast on nearby areas. We find that empirically, as in the simulations, detectable agglomeration shadows emerge for large cities around ancient ports. These patterns extend to modern city locations more generally, and illustrate how encouraging growth in particular places can discourage growth of nearby areas. |
| Keywords: | agglomeration shadow; urban hierarchy; new economic geography |
| Date: | 2024–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:awi:wpaper:0752 |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou (The World Bank) |
| Date: | 2024–06–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:637 |
| By: | Christoph Eder (Independent, formerly JKU Linz); Martin Halla (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Philipp Hilmbauer-Hofmarcher (Department of Economics, Central European University) |
| Abstract: | How does military occupation affect long-term economic development? We use the post-World War II occupation of Austria as a laboratory setting. Austria was divided into different occupation zones for ten years. The Soviet occupation was exploitative, while the Western Allied occupation was more supportive. After ten years of different occupation regimes, the regions returned to a single nation-state. We estimate the impact of different occupation regimes on long-term economic development. Methodologically, we combine a spatial regression discontinuity design with a difference-in-differences approach. We find that areas in the former Soviet zone are still less economically developed today. These areas are less populated, host fewer and lower paying jobs, and their residents are more likely to commute outside the former Soviet zone. The most plausible mechanism for these long-lasting effects are agglomeration effects triggered by a large migration shock from East to West as the population fled the advancing Soviet army. |
| Keywords: | Military occupation, migration, economic development, World War II, Austria, agglomeration effects |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R23 J61 N44 N94 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp366 |
| By: | Boldyrev, Ivan |
| Abstract: | Review of “Adorno’s Critique of Political Economy” by Dirk Braunstein. |
| Date: | 2024–07–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:tr3yj |
| By: | Rafael Galvão de Almeida (Cedeplar/UFMG) |
| Abstract: | This article introduces to economic theology and to the studies of capitalism and religion the concept of the demonic, as understood by the theologian and philosopher Paul Tillich and the economic historian Fritz Redlich. The demonic is understood by Tillich as the “sacred antidivine”, a strength that creates through destruction and consumption of previous arrangements – what economists understand as creative destruction. Capitalist dynamism is possible due to demonic. Redlich applies the demonic to entrepreneurship, observing from the great 19th century American industrialists known as robber barons how their creativity led to disruption of society and reactions against them. The article concludes that entrepreneurship must become more self-aware, while promoting a creativity that is resistant to the demonic. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, economics and religion, economic theology, Paul Tillich, Fritz Redlich, critical entrepreneurship studies, demonic |
| JEL: | B20 L26 Z12 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td669 |
| By: | Bähr, Johannes |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ibfpps:300551 |
| By: | KONDO Ayako |
| Abstract: | Despite the popular belief that the deterioration of youth employment prospects accelerated fertility decline in Japan, women born in the late 1970s and early 1980s who entered the labor market during the worst job market “ice-age†, have slightly more children than older cohorts. After demonstrating this fact, this study discusses the potential reasons for this subtle fertility recovery. I consider two potential mechanisms. First, the lower potential earnings of women increase fertility through lowering the opportunity cost of parenthood. Second, the simultaneous improvement in public support and work environment has enabled more women to continue working after childbirth. Women who had a regular job before childbearing benefit more from these changes. I show that the subtle increase in fertility was driven by college educated women, providing suggestive evidence for the second explanation. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:24063 |
| By: | Kornelakis, Andreas; Petrakaki, Dimitra |
| Abstract: | The puzzle of how Nokia lost the smartphone wars has intrigued recent scholarship. Despite Nokia’s dominant position in the mobile phone industry and its technological capabilities and reputation for strategic agility, it was completely wiped out from the market, only a few years after the launch of Apple’s iPhone. The article provides a comparative, historical and institutional account on the smartphone industry by focusing on three key players: Nokia, Apple, and Samsung. This perspective enriches earlier accounts that were overly focused on explaining Nokia’s decline by looking at internal organisational design and conflicts. We propose a two-pronged explanation focused on the reconfiguration of industry platforms and financialisation. The article suggests that single company histories could be enriched by integrating a comparative perspective that examines additional cases. We discuss opportunities for further research to understand how success or failure in technological innovation is embedded in a wider societal and institutional context. |
| Keywords: | comparative capitalism; financialisation; industry platforms; innovation; technology |
| JEL: | R14 J01 L81 |
| Date: | 2024–07–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124386 |
| By: | Sachin Sharma (Department of Economics, Chaudhary Ranbir Singh University, Jind, India.); Vijay Kumar (Department of Economics, Chaudhary Ranbir Singh University, Jind, India.); Babloo Jakhar (Department of Economics, Central University of Rajasthan, Ajmer, India) |
| Abstract: | T his paper contributes to the growing body of literature exploring the ramifications of AI-driven technological singularity and its economic implications. The exploration unfolds in three key segments. First, it sheds light on the concepts of artificial general intelligence (AGI), AI superintelligence, and singularity itself. Subsequently, it discusses the AI alignment problem, addressing the potential outcomes of superintelligent AI on human civilisation. Further, Giddens' structuration theory is used to highlight the prominent role of AI-based "authoritative resources" in determining the allocation of resources and ensuring distributive justice in a techno-utopian society. The paper also explores the idea of utopia and the "end of history" and concludes with the suggestion that achieving a technological utopia with superintelligent AI is a mechanism design problem. |
| Abstract: | Niniejszy artykuł stanowi wkład w rosnącą literaturę poświęconą konsekwencjom technologicznym osobliwości napędzanej przez sztuczną inteligencję (SI) i jej skutkom gospodarczym. Analiza skupia się na trzech kluczowych aspektach. Po pierwsze, uwagę poświęcono koncepcji ogólnej sztucznej inteligencji (AGI), superinteligencji AI i samej osobliwości. Następnie omówiono problem dostosowania SI, odnosząc się do potencjalnych skutków superinteligentnej SI dla ludzkiej cywilizacji. Wykorzystując teorię strukturacji Giddensa, podkreślono także znaczącą rolę „autorytatywnych zasobów" opartych na sztucznej inteligencji w określaniu alokacji zasobów i zapewnianiu sprawiedliwości dystrybucyjnej w społeczeństwie technoutopijnym. W artykule przeanalizowano również ideę utopii i „końca historii", a we wnioskach zasugerowano, że osiągnięcie technologicznej utopii z superinteligentną sztuczną inteligencją stanowi problem projektowania mechanizmów. |
| Keywords: | economic convergence, technological singularity, end of history, alignment problem, superintelligent AI, konwergencja ekonomiczna, osobliwość technologiczna, koniec historii, problem dopasowania, superinteligentna SI |
| Date: | 2024–06–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04078104 |
| By: | Pegoraro, Víctor |
| Abstract: | El artículo analiza el proceso de verticalización urbana de Mar del Plata entre los años 1957 y 1979. Se presta especial atención a la tipología de perímetro libre conocida como "torre" ya que constituyen objetos materiales paradigmáticos de la postal turística hasta hoy en día. Nos preguntamos: ¿Cuántos y dónde se construyeron? ¿Qué función tenían? ¿Qué rol tuvo la reglamentación urbana? ¿Cuáles fueron los cambios tecnológicos en su construcción? A partir de fuentes gráficas, publicidades, entrevistas orales, prensa periódica y expedientes de construcción, buscamos entrever sus características. |
| Keywords: | Construcción; Edificios; Urbanización; Mar del Plata; 1957-1979; |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:4132 |
| By: | Riphahn, Regina T. (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg); Sauer, Irakli (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the wage assimilation of East Germans who migrated to West Germany after reunification (1990-1999). We compare their wage assimilation to that of ethnic German immigrants from Eastern Bloc countries and international immigrants to West Germany who arrived at the same time. The analysis uses administrative as well as survey data. The results suggest that East Germans faced significant initial earnings disadvantages in West Germany, even conditional on age and education. However, these disadvantages were smaller than those of international immigrants, supporting the beneficial role of cultural similarity. The earnings gap relative to West German natives narrowed over time for all immigrants. These findings are robust to controlling for potentially endogenous return migration and labor force participation. Controls for fixed effects reveal that positive assimilation for East German and international immigrants was concentrated among highly educated immigrants. |
| Keywords: | cultural similarity, labor market integration, internal migration, earnings assimilation, migration, Germany, reunification |
| JEL: | F15 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17148 |
| By: | Erin Wolcott |
| Abstract: | Labor protection policies in the 1950s and 1960s helped many low- and middle-wage white workers in the United States achieve the American Dream. This coincided with historically low levels of inequality across income deciles. After the Civil Rights Act of 1964, policies that had previously helped build the white middle class reversed, especially in states with a larger Black population. Calibrating a labor search model to match minimum wages, unemployment benefits, and bargaining power before and after the Civil Rights Act, I find declining labor protections explain half of the rise in 90/10 wage inequality since the 1960s. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wage; Labor protections; Unemployment insurance; Wage inequality; Unions; Segregation; Worker bargaining power |
| JEL: | E24 J64 J30 J78 |
| Date: | 2024–05–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmoi:98574 |
| By: | Eder, Christoph; Halla, Martin; Hilmbauer-Hofmarcher, Philipp |
| Abstract: | How does military occupation affect long-term economic development? We use the post-World War II occupation of Austria as a laboratory setting. Austria was divided into different occupation zones for ten years. The Soviet occupation was exploitative, while the Western Allied occupation was more supportive. After ten years of different occupation regimes, the regions returned to a single nation-state. We estimate the impact of different occupation regimes on long-term economic development. Methodologically, we combine a spatial regression discontinuity design with a difference-in-differences approach. We find that areas in the former Soviet zone are still less economically developed today. These areas are less populated, host fewer and lower paying jobs, and their residents are more likely to commute outside the former Soviet zone. The most plausible mechanism for these long-lasting effects are agglomeration effects triggered by a large migration shock from East to West as the population fled the advancing Soviet army. |
| Keywords: | military occupation; migration; economic development; World War II; Austria; agglomeration effects |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wus005:65558588 |
| By: | Alejandro Fiorito (Economist, Johns Hopkins University); José Juan Ruiz (Chairman, Elcano Royal Institute); Ernesto Talvi (Senior Analyst, Elcano Royal Institute) |
| Abstract: | A widespread notion in European capitals is that Latin America is an economic failure: a highly volatile region, prone to all kind of recurrent crises, and unable to develop and sustain a dynamic of convergence towards the income levels of advanced economies, as the Asian Tigers did. To paraphrase a well-known saying about Brazil, the established perception is that “Latin America is a land of the future and it always will be.” Data shows this view is biased and does not match reality. First, progress in macroeconomic management over the last 20 years has been very significant and the results are notable. An entire Latin American generation has grown up in an environment of low and relatively stable inflation, reasonably sound public finances, and regulatory and supervisory frameworks that have led to the strong financial systems the region has today. One striking achievement is the reduction in the frequency of exchange rate, sovereign debt, and financial crises: from an average of four crises per year between the mid-1970s and the early 2000s to less than one a year in the last 20 years. As a result of this greater macroeconomic stability, Latin America went from being a protagonist—one third of the world’s exchange rate, banking, and debt crises between 1974 and 2003 took place in the region—to just playing a supporting role: only one of every six crises have taken place in Latin America since 2003. Second, income convergence from underdevelopment to development is the exception that proves the rule, as non-convergence is a widespread phenomenon in most emerging markets and developing economies. To judge Latin America’s long-term performance by comparing it with the highly unlikely convergence processes only achieved by Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong in the post-war period is, to say the least, incorrect. The main challenge that Latin America faces is neither macroeconomic management nor trying to achieve the unlikely goal of convergence but consolidating sustainable and inclusive growth. The region’s per capita income has been stagnant for a decade. The prolonged absence of sustained economic growth inevitably results in a situation marked by a distributive competition for resources, which not only fosters social tensions but also diverts valuable sociopolitical resources towards managing these tensions, instead of focusing them on the pursuit of economic growth. |
| Date: | 2024–06–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:697 |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou (The World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Liberalism and republicanism were often confused due to their shared opposition to absolute monarchy. However, contemporary scholars distinguish them as separate ideologies that each played crucial roles in shaping modern democratic ideals. Republicanism prioritized civic virtue and the collective welfare, while liberalism centered on economic principles and individualism. This distinction is particularly evident in their views on private property, where liberalism asserts that property rights are safeguarded through established positive law. |
| Date: | 2024–07–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:631 |
| By: | Smith, Cory B.; Kulka, Amrita |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Political Economy, Public Economics |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:343859 |
| By: | McClain, Valerie |
| Keywords: | Arts and Humanities, 150w, UCB, Women's Rowing History Project |
| Date: | 2024–07–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:cshedu:qt9vj9z488 |
| By: | Kilduff, Alice M. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Risk And Uncertainty, Agricultural And Food Policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:343884 |
| By: | Lisha Mengge (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | This research analyzes the effect of foreign trade on economic performance of the late Qing China. A new dataset of the adjusted Chinese trade series from 1867 to 1913 has been created using the data from the Chinese Maritime Customs. GDP estimations from 1860 to 1912 are from Ma and de Jong's recent study. Foreign trade of China expanded moderately during the |
| Date: | 2024–06–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:fsug24:14 |
| By: | Laura Saavedra-Lux |
| Abstract: | Why do some conflict-affected areas remain an arena of violent contestation of the state, while others transition to peace? I suggest that economic networks developed during intrastate conflict—i.e. wartime economies—give rise to continued pockets of insecurity. The significance of the wartime economy for local livelihoods sustains an interdependence between rebels and communities that permits rebels to remain locally embedded as they protect resource extraction and trade. |
| Keywords: | Post-conflict, Violence, Statebuilding, Drug trafficking, Instrumental variable |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2024-45 |
| By: | Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti; Monge-Naranjo, Alexander; Pereira, Luciene Torres de Mello |
| Abstract: | We study the emergence and persistence of urban slums in Brazil. Using data on labor markets, housing costs, and access to education, we construct a quantitative model to explore the impact of slums on the country s human capital and structural transformation. Urban slums emerge and persist due to their dual roles as intergenerational stepping stones for low-educated households and as blockades for higher-educated ones. Providing slum children access to schools in formal urban areas would have led to larger but shorter-lived slums. Improved rural schools, if available earlier during urbanization, would have vastly prevented the formation of urban slums. |
| Date: | 2024–07–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:epgewp:844 |
| By: | Konstantin A. Kholodilin |
| Abstract: | Urban areas confront a chronic shortage of housing, especially in the low-rent segment. This precarious situation is further exacerbated by major challenges, like the destruction of housing by wars and natural catastrophes, rapid increase of demand, or pandemics cutting incomes. In response, the authorities implement rent control that slows rent increases or even freezes rents. Rent control is ubiquitous, widely used at a large scale since World War I. However, its roots lie in a far more remote past, the first documented examples stemming from the Ancient Rome. Despite social and technological differences between then and now, the solutions found more than 2000 years ago bear a striking similarity with modern policies. Rapidly rising property prices, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Ukrainian war pushed rent control back to the top of the political agenda. In this study, using logit model and survival analysis, I investigate the factors that led to introduction of rent control. I find that wars, foundation of universities, and presence of Jewish communities made the introduction of rent control more likely |
| Keywords: | rent control; housing policy; Antiquity; Middle Ages; logit model; Cox proportional hazards regression |
| JEL: | N40 N90 O18 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2094 |
| By: | Vinish Shrestha (Department of Economics, Towson University) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates geographical disparities in the implementation and effectiveness of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) by linking them to the historical legacy of racial oppression in the American South. Using a cross-border regression discontinuity design that leverages variations in racial oppression intensity, we find that bordering counties in states with less oppressive regime experienced significantly greater benefits from the ACA compared to neighboring counties in more oppressive states. This divergence in insurance outcomes, which did not exist before the ACA, underscores the influence of historical racial regimes on contemporary policy efficacy. Furthermore, we demonstrate that political preferences from the Jim Crow era are correlated with the observed variations in ACA effectiveness. Our findings suggest that the racialization of the ACA is deeply rooted in the historical context of racial oppression in the American South. |
| Keywords: | ACA, Oppressive racial regime, Disparity, American South. |
| JEL: | I10 I14 D02 B15 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tow:wpaper:2024-09 |
| By: | Kelsey J. O'Connor |
| Abstract: | The immigrant (foreign-born) population increased by 32 million in total across 37 European countries from 1990 to 2019. Much of this movement was from east to west. Indeed, both the total and foreign-born populations declined in the former Eastern Bloc over this period. Such demographic shifts could be expected to affect both the immigrant destination and origin countries in diverse ways. However, we find no evidence of positive or negative impacts on aggregate subjective well-being, among both the destination and origin countries. Immigrants, in contrast, experienced increased well-being, converted to monetary terms, in excess of £25, 000 per person. Previous research had reduced scopes, e.g., covering destination countries or impacts on income only. We offer more comprehensive evidence, in terms of country and period, and by assessing impacts on subjective well-being, which implicitly includes all of the factors perceived to be important to people, both economic and non-economic. |
| Keywords: | immigration, emigration, migrants, life satisfaction, happiness |
| JEL: | I31 J15 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1461 |
| By: | Sylvain Leduc; Daniel J. Wilson |
| Abstract: | Internal migration has been cited as a key channel by which societies will adapt to climate change. We show in this paper that this process has already been happening in the United States. Over the course of the past 50 years, the tendency of Americans to move from the coldest places (“snow belt”), which have become warmer, to the hottest places (“sun belt”), which have become hotter, has steadily declined. In the latest full decade, 2010-2020, both county population growth and county net migration rates were essentially uncorrelated with the historical means of either extreme heat days or extreme cold days. The decline in these correlations over the past 50 years is true across counties, across commuting zones, and across states. It holds for urban and suburban counties; for rural counties the correlations have even reversed. It holds for all educational groups, with the sharpest decline in correlations for those with four or more years of college. Among age groups, the pattern is strongest for age groups 20-29 and 60-69, suggestive of climate being an especially important factor for those in life stages involving long-term location choices. Given climate change projections for coming decades of increasing extreme heat in the hottest U.S. counties and decreasing extreme cold in the coldest counties, our findings suggest the “pivoting” in the U.S. climate-migration correlation over the past 50 years is likely to continue, leading to a reversal of the 20th century snow belt to sun belt migration pattern. |
| Keywords: | internal migration; climate change; population growth |
| Date: | 2024–07–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:98566 |
| By: | Clark, Gregory; Cummins, Neil; Curtis, Mathew |
| Abstract: | Using a database of 1.6m marriages, 1837-1939, and a genealogy of 424, 000 people 1600-2021, we estimate three new male occupational status indices for England 1800-1939. The first of these indices, CCC-HISCO, re-estimates the HISCAM-GB index, using 30 times as much data. The second new index, CCC, uses the same association methodology behind HISCAM and CAMSIS to assign status, but employs a richer occupation classification than in HISCO-GB. The third index, CCC2, links this richer set of occupations to six measures of education and wealth, using principal component analysis. The close correlation between the CCC and CCC2 indices shows that the HISCAM association methodology generates true occupational status indices, rather than purely social proximity measures. All three new indices perform better than the existing HISCAM indices, by the metric of the father-son status correlation. These new indices all imply much less social mobility 1800-1939 than the current HISCAM indices. |
| Keywords: | occupational state indices; association indices; HISCAM; social mobility; intergenerational mobility |
| JEL: | N0 J1 |
| Date: | 2024–07–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124148 |