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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2024‒07‒22
39 papers chosen by |
| By: | Díez García, Rubén (Complutense University of Madrid) |
| Abstract: | The official constitution date of Sociedad Madrid-París was January 14, 1920. This company was created with the aim of starting up and managing a department store in the capital of Spain, following the model of other existing store chains already working and established in prominent cities throughout Europe and the United States at that time. The most illustrative example of this kind of business can be found in the magasins introduced by the French shopkeeper Aristide Boucicaut in 1852. The son of a modest milliner who had settled in Paris, he co-founded Le Bon Marché store. His vision of the business and new ideas soon led him to become head of the establishment. It was then that he began to put into practice the basic principles that would be used by all department stores in the future, and which numerous shopkeepers of the belle époque would later imitate. Not only in France but in urban developments during the processes of economic modernization of the main Western countries since the mid-XIX century. The French connection was an important boost for Madrid-Paris Society. Executives from Société Paris-France offered to Madrid-Paris businessmen his support and funding from the beginning, thanks to their experience as managers of one of the most important department store chains located in the neighboring country, Les Dames de France. Three years before, on January 4, 1924, opened its doors Madrid-París Department Store, representing the style of the grands magasins in the Iberian country. The opening was announced almost daily in the press during the final days of December 1923 and right up until the inaugural day. Indeed, advertising and promotion expenses fell between 40, 000 and 60, 000 pesetas. The King and Queen, Alfonso XIII, and Victoria Eugenia were invited, along with other representatives in the local political and economic spheres. Also in attendance were the executives of Madrid-Paris and Paris-France companies. A sumptuous gathering was organized, with lunch included. The press was likewise present to document such a magnificent event: “Crowning the building is an enormous dome, the finest in the world, measuring 30 meters in diameter. Once inside the "Madrid-París" Department Store, the visitor will be amazed by the magnificent sight of the round foyer and the surrounding departments, each displaying a wide variety of goods. A beautiful staircase spirals upwards from this gigantic foyer to the galleries on the first floor, and from there, other stairways lead up to the floors above” (El Sol newspaper, 1924). Although, Madrid-Paris closed its doors during the turbulent years of 1934-1935, more than ninety years later, another department store opened in the same building, -after a cruel Civil War, a long dictatorship, and an accelerated modernization process in the country. On this occasion, it was an Irish company and leading low-cost clothing retailer, Primark, who came back to live the luxury and magnificence of Madrid-Paris on October 15, 2015. Inspiring his business in downtown Madrid and inducing desire and consumption with classical symbolic resources of the epoch of his predecessor and ornamental architectural elements of the founding department stores, a well-established trend among some new department stores built and started up in recent times. |
| Date: | 2024–05–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:x5hvu&r= |
| By: | D.M. Nachane (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | In the inter war years (1919-39) macroeconomics was at the forefront of attention of both thinkers as well as policymakers. This paper focuses on Hawtrey, one of the major economists of that period whose contemporary influence on macroeconomic theory as well as policy was significant, but whose contributions, in the aftermath of World War II, have gone largely into oblivion. We begin with a brief exposition of the main strands of Hawtreyan macroeconomics. We then try to demonstrate the significant influence that Hawtrey's ideas had on Keynes' views, highlighting both the areas in which their ideas differed and where their views reinforced each other's. Before concluding, we draw attention to at least five contributions of Hawtrey, which have a strong claim to be considered original but which have received scant professional credit viz. the multiplier, the accelerator, quantitative easing, crowding out and the announcement effect of monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | instability of credit, credit deadlock, quantitative easing , the multiplier, crowding |
| JEL: | B22 B31 E12 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2024-009&r= |
| By: | George Alogoskoufis |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews, analyses and interprets the evolution of the state and the economy of post-war Greece, before and after the political transition to democracy in 1974. The transition led to a regime-change involving a very large part of the ideological and institutional edifice that characterised Greece in the twenty-five years between the end of the civil war in 1949 and the transition to democracy in 1974. Although social and political institutions and performance improved significantly after 1974, economic performance deteriorated sharply. The analysis suggests that although this was to be partly expected because of international developments, the sharp deterioration is economic performance was mainly the result of the failures of the post-1974 political regime to substitute the commitment and coordination mechanisms that had contributed to the economic ‘miracle’ of the 1950s and the 1960s, follow appropriate and consistent rules in economic policy and introduce the necessary reforms. In addition, Greece entered the E.U and, later, the euro area relatively unprepared, something which contributed to the deterioration in its economic performance and, eventually, the debt crisis of the 2010s and the great depression that followed. The final section of the paper discusses several reforms that could help put Greece back on track economically, consolidating and improving its position in the E.U and the euro area, while strengthening the desirable social and political characteristics of the post-1974 regime. |
| Keywords: | post-war Greece, economy, state, democracy, 1974 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hel:greese:198&r= |
| By: | Vellore Arthi; Gary Richardson; Mark Van Orden |
| Abstract: | The failure of the Freedman's Savings Bank (FSB), one of the only Black-serving banks in the early post-bellum South, was an economic catastrophe and one of the great episodes of racial exploitation in post-Emancipation history. It was also most Black Americans' first experience of banking. Can events like these permanently alter financial preferences and behavior? To test this, we examine the impact of FSB collapse on life insurance-holding, an accessible alternative savings vehicle over the late 19th and early 20th centuries. We document a sharp and persistent increase in insurance demand in affected counties following the shock, driven disproportionately by Black customers. We also use FSB migrant flows to disentangle place-based and cohort-based effects, thus identifying psychological and cultural scarring as a distinct mechanism underlying the shift in financial behavior induced by the bank's collapse. Horizontal and intergenerational transmission of preferences help explain the shock’s persistent effects on financial behavior. |
| JEL: | D63 G21 G22 G51 G52 I30 N21 N22 N31 N32 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32576&r= |
| By: | Ronan C. Lyons; Allison Shertzer; Rowena Gray; David N. Agorastos |
| Abstract: | We construct the first consistent market rent and home sales price series for American cities across the 20th century using millions of newspaper real estate listings. Our findings revise several stylized facts about U.S. housing markets. Real market rents did not fall during the 20th century for most cities. Instead, real rental price levels increased by about 20% from 1890 to 2006. There was also greater growth in real housing sales prices from 1965 to 1995 than is commonly understood. Using these series we document several new facts about housing markets. The return to homeownership has varied considerably across cities and over time, but rental returns were historically much more important than capital gains in every city. We discuss the implications of our indices for the business cycle and the consumer price index. Finally, we provide evidence that housing prices increased unevenly across cities over time in response to natural building and regulatory constraints. |
| JEL: | G11 N22 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32593&r= |
| By: | Iyer, Lakshmi (University of Notre Dame); Weir, Coleson (University of Notre Dame) |
| Abstract: | Using updated data, we analyze the long-run effects of two British colonial institutions established in India. Iyer (2010) showed that areas under direct colonial rule had fewer schools, health centers, and roads than areas under indirect colonial rule. Two decades later, we find that these differences have been eliminated. Banerjee and Iyer (2005) found lower agricultural investments and productivity in areas with landlord-based colonial land tenure systems. Our updated data finds that only some of these differences have been eliminated. We conclude that the impact of colonial institutions can eventually fade away under the influence of targeted policies. |
| Keywords: | historical institutions, colonial rule, land tenure, agriculture, public goods, India |
| JEL: | P14 N45 O12 O13 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17051&r= |
| By: | Hanna M. Schwank (University of Bonn) |
| Abstract: | Natural disasters are growing in frequency globally. Understanding how vulnerable populations respond to these disasters is essential for effective policy response. This paper explores the short- and long-run consequences of the 1906 San Francisco Fire, one of the largest urban fires in American history. Using linked Census records, I follow residents of San Francisco and their children from 1900 to 1940. Historical records suggest that exogenous factors such as wind and the availability of water determined where the fire stopped. I implement a spatial regression discontinuity design across the boundary of the razed area to identify the effect of the fire on those who lost their home to it. I find that in the short run, the fire displaced affected residents, forced them into lower paying occupations and out of entrepreneurship. Experiencing the disaster disrupted children’s school attendance and led to an average loss of six months of education. While most effects attenuated over time, the negative effect on business ownership persists even in 1940, 34 years after the fire. Therefore, my findings reject the hope for a “reversal of fortune” for the victims, in contrast to what is found for more recent natural disasters such as hurricane Katrina. |
| Keywords: | Natural disasters, internal migration, economic history, regional and urban economics |
| JEL: | N91 N31 Q54 O15 J61 J62 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:312&r= |
| By: | Adam, Ammaarah; Ades, Raphael; Banks, William; Benning, Canbeck; Grant, Gwyneth; Forster-Brass, Harry; McGiveron, Owen; Miller, Joseph; Phelan, Daniel; Randazzo, Sebastian; Reilly, Matthew; Scott, Michael W.; Serban, Sebastian; Stockton, Carys; Wallis, Patrick |
| Abstract: | How was trust created and reinforced between the inhabitants of medieval and early modern cities? And how did the social foundations of trusting relationships change over time? Current research highlights the role of kinship, neighbourhood and associations, particularly guilds, in creating ‘relationships of trust’ and social capital in the face of high levels of migration, mortality and economic volatility, but tells us little about their relative importance or how they developed. We uncover a profound shift in the contribution of family and guilds to trust networks among the middling and elite of one of Europe’s major cities, London, over three centuries, from the 1330s to the 1680s. We examine almost 15, 000 networks of sureties created to secure orphans’ inheritances to measure the presence of trusting relationships connected by guild membership, family and place. We uncover a profound increase in the role of kinship – a re-embedding of trust within the family - and a decline of the importance of shared guild membership in connecting Londoner’s who secured orphans’ inheritances together. These developments indicate a profound transformation in the social fabric of urban society. |
| Keywords: | CUP deal |
| JEL: | N00 |
| Date: | 2024–05–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122876&r= |
| By: | Banerjee, Josh |
| Abstract: | The United Kingdom (UK) is typically regarded as the sine qua non case of an economy experiencing chronic external imbalances under the post-war Bretton Woods system, apparently unable to reconcile the divergent objectives of robust economic growth and current account equilibrium. This paper investigates the famed ‘twin deficits hypothesis’, which ascribed responsibility for the UK's current account woes to an excessively lax fiscal policy. Calling on two distinct approaches to identifying fiscal shocks, we find evidence decisively against the traditional twin deficits view, and uncover serious shortcomings in the way that both policymakers and academics conceptualized the transmission of fiscal policy to the current account. Our results demonstrate that factors other than fiscal policy are of considerably greater importance for understanding the UK's historical experience, and we elaborate on the need for a reappraisal of some classic policy debates concerning external adjustment under the Bretton Woods system. |
| Keywords: | current account adjustment; fiscal policy; policy coordination; Wiley deal |
| JEL: | H00 |
| Date: | 2024–06–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122632&r= |
| By: | Gary D. Libecap |
| Abstract: | The governance and transaction cost insights of Oliver Williamson (1975, 1985, 1996, 2010) and Ronald Coase (1937, 1992) have framed antitrust polices and firm management strategies. Transaction cost economics explain efficient governance adaptation. With a focus on private efficiency gains within firms and markets, however, neither Williamson nor Coase explore political exchange and rent-seeking. Coase (1960) sought to reform Pigouvian externality regulation based on transaction cost efficiencies. He called for assignment of property rights and bargaining, and for institutional comparisons of costs and benefits to reveal relative transaction cost and welfare advantages. His 1960 paper is among the most cited in economics, but his remedies have not been adopted as the primary approach in major US environmental policies. All US environmental and natural resource laws since 1970 are Pigouvian. Limited Coasean bargaining occurs late and around the edges of the laws. The efficiency advantages, welfare gains, and collaborative responses Coase suggested have not been achieved. The Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Act of 1976, enacted 16 years after Coase, used Pigouvian fishery regulation for 25 years, and upon failure, was replaced by abbreviated property rights and trade. Fishery economic values were lowered relative to what might have been possible. The Endangered Species Act of 1973 rejected previous Coasean legislation authorizing purchase of critical habitat and instead opted for uncompensated Pigouvian controls on private landowners, who held most endangered species. Landowners resisted, and only 3% of listed endangered species have recovered. There is no evidence of a weighing of comparative transaction costs between Coase or Pigou in enacting any legislation. Rent-seeking via political bargaining among interest groups, politicians, and agency officials explains many of the observed patterns in externality regulation. The analysis suggests that transaction cost economics play a lesser role in the political arena. |
| JEL: | K11 K32 N42 N5 N52 N92 Q52 Q53 Q57 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32603&r= |
| By: | Clemens M. Graf von Luckner; Josefin Meyer; Carmen M. Reinhart; Christoph Trebesch |
| Abstract: | We study sovereign external debt crises over the past 200 years, with a focus on creditor losses, or “haircuts”. Our sample covers 327 sovereign debt restructurings with external private creditors over 205 default spells since 1815. Creditor losses vary widely (from none to 100%), but the statistical distribution has remained remarkably stable over two centuries, with an average haircut of around 45 percent. The data also reveal that “serial restructurings”, meaning two or more debt exchanges in the same default spell, are on the rise. To account for this trend toward serial renegotiation, we introduce the “Bulow-Rogoff haircut” - a cumulative measure that captures the combined creditor loss across all restructurings during a single debt crisis. Using this measure, we show that longer debt crises deliver larger haircuts and that interim restructurings provide limited debt relief. We further examine past predictors of the size of haircuts and identify “rules of thumb” applicable to future defaults. Poorer countries, first-time debt issuers, and those that borrowed heavily from external creditors all record significantly higher haircuts in case of a default. Geopolitical shocks - such as wars, revolutions, or the break-up of empires – deliver the deepest haircuts. Sovereign debt investment disasters are often linked to (geo-)political disasters. |
| JEL: | F30 G01 G15 N10 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32599&r= |
| By: | Artola Blanco, Miguel |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a new perspective on labor incomes in Spain during the 1900-1960 period, based on a comprehensive revision of various sources. The first part re-examines national accounts from the 1950s, along with other official statistics, to provide the most consistent estimates for the period from 1954 to 1960. The second part elaborates historical estimates of labor incomes for the earlier period, from 1900 to 1953, by combining various types of administrative data, particularly wages declared to social security schemes and the tax administration. Finally, the paper disaggregates employmentfigures into different classification systems, most importantly by industry, working status, and occupational groups. |
| Keywords: | Wages; Working Conditions; Labor Markets; Spain |
| Date: | 2024–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:44073&r= |
| By: | Mladjan, Mrdjan M.; Nikolova, Elena; Ponomarenko, Olga |
| Abstract: | Institutions, defined as "the rules of the game in society", drive economic growth and prosperity. Institutions often arise from long-term processes influenced by geography, major historical events, culture, and, less commonly, religion. This chapter reviews the available evidence to demonstrate that religion has a strong effect on formal (laws, judicial and financial systems, contract enforcement) and informal (traditions, taboos, codes of conduct) institutions. Church-state relationships hundreds of years ago affect informal institutions like work ethic, preferences for rationality or spirituality, and attitudes towards innovation. In terms of formal institutions, there is evidence of causal effects of religious doctrines on institutions such as democratic government, independent courts, private property, or inheritance rights. Moreover, there is evidence that formal and informal institutions also influence religious institutions and doctrines. The chapter also reviews the theories of religious markets and secularization to conclude that neither of them are well positioned to predict how the relationship between religions and institutions will unfold in the future. The chapter then enumerates several empirical challenges inherent in the study of religion and institutions, and proposes way to overcome them. It also suggests several fruitful areas for future research, including using more fine-grained data and developing new theoretical tools, identifying mechanisms through both quantitative and qualitative data, and expanding the research focus beyond Christian denominations in order to focus on non-Western religions. |
| Keywords: | religion, institutions, culture |
| JEL: | Z12 D02 O43 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1447&r= |
| By: | Diegmann, André (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Gottschalk, Sandra (IAB); Hälbig, Mirja (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Schmucker, Alexandra (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Wolter, Stefanie (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "The Mannheim Enterprise Panel linked to the Establishment History Panel (MUP-BHP) is made up of cross-sectional datasets from 2010 onwards. Each cross-section includes all linkable limited liability companies (GmbH) from the Mannheim Enterprise Panel (MUP) and their establishments in Germany that are recorded in the Employee History Panel (BeH) as of 31 December. This linkage of companies and establishments is based on a record linkage of the address data of the MUP held by the Leibniz Institute for European Economic Research and the establishment address data at the IAB. The individual cross-sectional datasets contain information on the establishments and enterprises as well as an additional file on shareholders. The data sets can be combined to form a panel. This data report describes the Mannheim Enterprise Panel linked with the Establishment History Panel (MUP-BHP) 2010-2020." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Mannheimer Unternehmenspanel verknüpft mit Betriebs-Historik-Panel ; 10.5164/IAB.MUP-BHP1020.de.en.v1 |
| Date: | 2024–06–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfda:202403(de)&r= |
| By: | Masuda, Kazuto (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | We introduce the quantity theory of money into the Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson effect model. Our policy rule specifies the impossibility of perfect exchange rate stability with monetary policy, as Friedman (1953) suggests. We discover the importance of inflation to technological progress, while the rent-seeking behaviors in firms foster their productivity slowdowns and disinflations. Their forward-looking behaviors, like animal spirit (Keynes, 1936/1997), control outputs under the marginal productivity hypothesis with the Cobb-Douglus production function. Baumol’s (1959) sales revenue maximization hypothesis explains full employment and deflations but breaks the marginal productivity hypothesis. We briefly argue the downward stickiness of nominal wages (incomes). |
| Date: | 2024–07–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:nxshd&r= |
| By: | Manchala, Ravibabu; Sahu, Sasmita |
| Abstract: | The paper gives an outline of the evolution of Indian transport sector before and after the Indian independence in 1947 and the policies followed by different governments in these modes since 1947. First the paper traces the status of various modes in 1947 and the role British rule played in evolution of these modes. The discussion then traces important policies followed in various modes in the country since 1947 and how they shaped the growth of each mode of transport. The paper brings out the efforts made in implementing an integrated transport policy across the country. It also highlights the failure in implementing an integrated transport policy by giving major areas of failure. Finally, the paper concludes by giving the broad contours of the future policy directions stating that in the Indian context instead of a tightly integrated transport policy it would be better to provide a level playing field across all the modes and enable the modes to develop in the marketplace. |
| Keywords: | India’s national transport Policy; Historical development of transport infrastructure in India; Transport planning in India |
| JEL: | R48 |
| Date: | 2023–06–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121158&r= |
| By: | Francesco Furlanetto; Antoine Lepetit |
| Abstract: | We review recent developments in the estimation and identification of the Phillips curve and its slope. We have three main objectives. First, we describe the econometric challenges faced by traditional approaches of estimating the Phillips curve, explain how new approaches address those challenges, and assess which limitations still remain. Second, we review the findings of those new approaches and examine the evidence regarding a potential flattening of the Phillipscurve in the pre-pandemic period. Third, we provide an account of inflation dynamics in the post-pandemic period with a particular emphasis on the role of nonlinearities. |
| Keywords: | Inflation dynamics; Phillips curve flattening; Phillips curve nonlinearities; Phillips curve slope |
| JEL: | C51 E24 E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2024–06–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-43&r= |
| By: | Lisa D. Cook |
| Date: | 2024–06–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgsq:98389&r= |
| By: | Elie Bouri (School of Business, Lebanese American University, Lebanon); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Asingamaanda Liphadzi (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Christian Pierdzioch (Department of Economics, Helmut Schmidt University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, 22008 Ham- burg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | We analyze whether changes in temperature anomalies, and its second, third, and fourth moments, carry valuable information in forecasting historical stock returns volatility of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US), i.e., the G7 countries, after controlling for leverage, skewness and (excess) kurtosis of stock price fluctuations. Using centuries of monthly data, covering the period 1915-2024 for Canada and Italy, 1898-2024 for France, 1870-2024 for Germany, 1914-2024 for Japan, 1693-2024 for the UK, and 1791-2024 for the US, the results show that stock market moments matter more than climate risks for accurately forecasting stock returns volatility. Extended analyses confirm that climate risks are already captured by the moments of stock returns. We discuss the implications of our findings for investment decisions and economic policy. |
| Keywords: | Stock market, Volatility, Forecasting, Moments, Climate risks, G7 countries |
| JEL: | C22 C32 C53 G10 G17 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202424&r= |
| By: | Ryan Chahrour; Vito Cormun; Pierre De Leo; Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana; Rosen Valchev |
| Abstract: | We find that variation in expected U.S. productivity explains over half of U.S. dollar/G7 exchange rate fluctuations. Both correctly-anticipated changes in productivity and expectational noise, which influences the expectation of productivity but not its eventual realization, have large effects. This “noisy news” is primarily related to medium-to-long-run TFP growth, and transmits to the exchange rate by causing significant deviations from uncovered interest parity. Together, these disturbances generate many well-known exchange puzzles, including predictable excess returns, low Backus-Smith correlations, and excess volatility. Our findings suggest these puzzles have a common origin, linked to productivity expectations. |
| JEL: | D8 F3 G1 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32596&r= |
| By: | Innes, Abby |
| Abstract: | In After Neoliberalism Michael Jacobs makes a compelling case for the systematic failures of neoliberal economic policies and in the neoclassical theories that justified them. He calls for an economics rooted in ontological institutionalism and for the (re)development of varied institutions charged with diverse social purposes. This response takes Jacobs’ critique further and states that neoliberalism fails because the neoclassical economics that underpins it is fundamentally utopian; and it is doomed to fail for the same ontological and epistemological reasons that condemned Soviet socialism. What these politically opposed doctrines hold in common is closed-system economic reasoning from axiomatic deduction presented as ‘a governing science’. It follows that both must tend to fail on contact with a three-dimensional reality in an always evolving, open-system world, subject to Knightian uncertainty. The dark historical joke is that a machine models of the economy, both Soviet and neoclassical neoliberal economics, converge on the same statecraft of quantification, output-planning, target-setting, forecasting and the presumption of only ‘rational’—socially productive—firms. The result in both systems is state and economic failure and the creation of production regimes that are a grotesque caricature of those promised, only now in the midst of an ecological emergency. It follows that we need an urgent revival of analytical pluralism in government and a non-utopian scientific realism about the true scope of the ecological crisis, so that Jacobs’ rich institutional ecosystem will have resilient foundations. |
| Keywords: | neoclassical economics; neoliberal policy; polycrisis; Soviet economics; utopia; Wiley deal |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2024–05–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:123741&r= |
| By: | Juan P. Farah-Yacoub; Clemens M. Graf von Luckner; Carmen M. Reinhart |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the economic and social consequences of sovereign default on external debt. We focus on the crises’ impact on real per capita GDP, infant mortality, life expectancy, poverty headcounts, and calorie supply per capita. After methodological exclusions, the sample covers 221 default episodes over 1815-2020. The analysis adopts an eclectic empirical strategy that relies on an augmented synthetic control method and local projections. Our findings suggest that sovereign defaults lead to significant adverse economic outcomes, with defaulting economies falling behind their counterparts by a cumulative 8.5 percent of GDP per capita within three years of default. Moreover, output per capita remains nearly 20 percent below that of non-defaulting peers after a decade. Based on the trajectory of the health, nutrition, and poverty indicators we study, we assess that the social costs of sovereign default are significant, broad-based, and long-lived. |
| JEL: | F0 H0 I0 O10 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32600&r= |
| By: | D.M. Nachane (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | During episodes of severe depression, interest rates can approach the zero lower bound (ZLB) and stay there for a fairly long time. Mainstream macroeconomic theory (the so-called New Consensus Economics) then fails to provide adequate guidance under a Taylor type rule to conventional monetary policy. Various alternatives have been suggested to revitalize monetary policy in such a situation. The major alternatives can be divided into three categories viz. (i) those that do not recognize the ZLB as an effective floor (ii) those based on the Keynesian liquidity trap and (iii) those based (implicitly) on Hawtrey's credit deadlock. We discuss these alternatives with a special focus on QE (Quantitative Easing). In particular, we draw attention to the largely ignored fact that QE had been suggested by the British economist Hawtrey at least as early as 1931 in the policy debates on ways to emerge from the Great Depression. |
| Keywords: | Zero lower bound, Price-gap target, Currency depreciation, Forward guidance, Quantitative easing, Liquidity trap, Credit deadlock |
| JEL: | E4 E5 N1 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2024-005&r= |
| By: | Benjamin Lahey; Rajashri Chakrabarti; Natalia Emanuel |
| Abstract: | Disparities in wealth are pronounced across racial and ethnic groups in the United States. As part of an ongoing series on inequality and equitable growth, we have been documenting the evolution of these gaps between Black, Hispanic, and white households, in this case from the first quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2023 for a variety of assets and liabilities for a pandemic-era picture. We find that real wealth grew and that the pace of growth for Black, Hispanic, and white households was very similar across this timeframe—yet gaps across groups persist. |
| Keywords: | wealth inequality; inequality; pandemic; demographics; racial inequity |
| JEL: | D31 |
| Date: | 2024–06–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:98464&r= |
| By: | Edwards, Ryan Barclay (Australian National University) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the proliferation of palm oil factories across Indonesia’s undeveloped hinterland to study industrial onset and estimate spillovers from agricultural processing. The main finding is signs of urbanization and structural change around factories: more non-agricultural employment, higher incomes, and more people, firms, and other economic and social organizations. These patterns are largely explained by economic linkages, infrastructure and other public goods, and economies of scale in production. By focusing on subsistence rural regions in a large developing economy, this paper adds a globally-significant new case to a growing literature emphasizing the importance of agglomeration externalities for understanding the birth of new towns, the spatial distribution of economic activity, and structural transformation. |
| Date: | 2024–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:uvjef&r= |
| By: | Smith, E. Keith; Milkoreit, Manjana |
| Abstract: | Trust in science is crucial to resolving societal problems. Americans across political ideologies have high levels of trust in science—a stable pattern observed over the past 50 years. Yet, trust in science varies by individual and group characteristics and faces several threats, from political actors, increased political polarization, or global crises. We revisit historical trends of trust in science amongst Americans by political orientation. We find steadily diverging trends by political views since the 1990s, and a drastically and rapidly opening gap since 2018. Recent unprecedented changes are driven by decreases in trust among conservatives but also increases among liberals. Existing theoretical accounts do not fully explain these patterns. Diverging attitudes towards the institution of science can diminish capacity for collective problem solving, eroding the shared foundation for decision making and political discourse. |
| Date: | 2024–06–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:fr6xk&r= |
| By: | Green, Seth Ariel (Code Ocean) |
| Abstract: | This article provides five observations on the state of contact hypothesis research five years after the publication of The Contact Hypothesis Re-evaluated. First, we have seen a welcome proliferation of rigorous field experiments, which often find much more conflicting results than the theory’s proponents might predict. Second, to explain those conflicting results, I propose a more nuanced theory of prejudice. Third, light touch interventions are appropriate for light prejudices. Fourth, assimilation is an undertheorized moderator of contact. Fifth, I renew our previous paper’s call for systematic tests of Gordon Allport’s moderating conditions: shared goals, cooperation, equal status, and institutional support. |
| Date: | 2024–06–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8mcb5&r= |
| By: | Lupu, Noam |
| Abstract: | Latin America is widely acknowledged as one of the most unequal regions of the world (Sánchez-Ancochea 2021). But it is also one of the most democratic, certainly as compared to other developing regions. These two facts seem difficult to reconcile. Both folk theories of democratic representation to borrow a phrase from (Achen and Bartels 2016) and canonical models in political economy would have us believe that democracies ought to reduce inequality through redistribution (e.g., Acemoglu and Robinson 2006; Meltzer and Richard 1981; Romer 1975). As inequality increases, the proportion of the population that would benefit materially from redistribution also increases, making it more likely that a pro-redistribution political coalition would win elections and deliver social policy. And yet, despite several decades of uninterrupted electoral democracy in most of the region, Latin American governments have consistently and with but few exceptions failed to reduce inequality substantially. This paper begins by discussing why contemporary Latin American party systems are weak, focusing on both structural/institutional factors that pull party systems toward less institutionalization and recent changes to the regions political economy that undermined the more institutionalized systems. Then links the regions low levels of party-system institutionalization with lower levels of redistribution, both theoretically and empirically through cross-national comparisons. Finally, the mass and elite surveys show that legislatures in the region fail to reflect the pro-redistribution preferences of voters, further demonstrating how weak parties undermine the representation necessary for successful redistribution. |
| Keywords: | Inequality;Political Processes;National Government |
| JEL: | D30 D72 H50 P00 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13481&r= |
| By: | Bikubanya, Divin-Luc; Geenen, Sara; Nkuba, Bossissi; Mugumaoderha Cubaka, Mac; Boutsen, Dag |
| Abstract: | Cette étude examine les modèles de construction et d’urbanisation en RDC avant, pendant et après la colonisation belge jusqu’à la fin des années 80, en mettant en lumière l'impact des politiques économiques coloniales et la dynamique de l'industrialisation sur l’urbanisation fragmentée de Bukavu. Il souligne l'importance de revitaliser les entreprises industrielles pour que les matériaux de construction contribuent véritablement au développement urbain. |
| Keywords: | Bukavu; construction |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iob:wpaper:2024.01&r= |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou (The World Bank) |
| Date: | 2024–06–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:629&r= |
| By: | Ryan B. Edwards |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the proliferation of palm oil factories across Indonesia’s undeveloped hinterland to study industrial onset and estimate spillovers from agricultural processing. The main finding is signs of urbanization and structural change around factories: more non-agricultural employment, higher incomes, and more people, firms, and other economic and social organizations. These patterns are largely explained by economic linkages, infrastructure and other public goods, and economies of scale in production. By focusing on subsistence rural regions in a large developing economy, this paper adds a globally- significant new case to a growing literature emphasizing the importance of agglomeration externalities for understanding the birth of new towns, the spatial distribution of economic activity, and structural transformation. |
| JEL: | F14 F23 F63 J43 O13 O14 O19 O53 Q17 R11 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2024-6&r= |
| By: | Francis W. Graham (Monash University, Centre for Health Economics); Sonja de New (Monash University, Centre for Health Economics); Suzanne Nielsen (Monash University, Monash Addiction Research Centre); Dennis Petrie (Monash University, Centre for Health Economics) |
| Abstract: | The proliferation of the high-dose prescription opioid product OxyContin has been identified as a major contributing factor to rising rates of opioid-involved harm throughout the early stages of the US opioid epidemic. Furthermore, after OxyContin was reformulated with abuse-deterrent properties in 2010, many people previously engaging in extramedical OxyContin use substituted to illicit substitutes, initiating a wave of heroin- and later synthetic opioid-involved deaths. Using event studies similar to those employed in previous OxyContin-related studies, we provide evidence that the OxyContin reformulation also induced substitution to another high-dose extended release (ER) prescription opioid product marketed under the brand name Opana ER. We show that the steady continued growth in prescription opioid-involved mortality after the OxyContin reformulation is nearly entirely explained by substitution from OxyContin to Opana ER. Furthermore, we show that when Opana ER itself was reformulated in February 2012, there was another wave of substitution to heroin previously attributed solely to OxyContin. Our estimates imply that if the Opana ER pathway were shut down at the time of the OxyContin reformulation, heroin-involved mortality from 2009 to 2016 in the US would have been as much as 33% lower, synthetic opioid-involved mortality as much as 38% lower, and total opioid-involved mortality as much as 44% lower. This study provides new evidence of the harms posed by high-dose prescription opioid products throughout the US opioid epidemic, as well as the unintended consequences of supply disruptions in the presence of both licit and illicit substitutes. |
| Keywords: | opioid epidemic, OxyContin, Opana ER, heroin |
| JEL: | I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mhe:chemon:2023-09&r= |
| By: | Leachman, Robert |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2024–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt3bn6j7v6&r= |
| By: | Yuki Matsuura (Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, University of Tokyo); Masanori Kubota (Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP), Osaka University); Kaoru Hidaka (Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Tsukuba); Taku Yukawa (Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | What personal characteristics influence political leaders to pursue weapons of mass destruction (WMDs)? Although an extensive body of research addresses the factors that contribute to WMD proliferation, systematic studies on the impact of leaders' biographical factors remain scarce. Thus, this study presents a new theory that focuses on the effects of Western educational experiences on leaders' beliefs and values regarding WMD development. A statistical analysis using data on leaders' studies abroad from 1945 to 2000 found that, in general, studying in Western countries made leaders less likely to pursue both nuclear weapons and chemical and biological weapons. However, leaders who studied in Western nuclear powers were more likely to pursue nuclear development after taking office but less likely to pursue chemical and biological weapons. Our findings that study-abroad destinations have contrasting causal effects on nuclear and as well as chemical and biological weapons proliferation provide an alternative perspective to the dominant view in conventional WMD proliferation studies, which understands the proliferation of chemical and biological weapons by analogy with nuclear weapons. |
| Keywords: | Weapons of Mass Destruction, Personal Biography Approach, political leader, foreign education, |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osp:wpaper:24e005&r= |
| By: | Bjerre-Nielsen, Andreas (University of Copenhagen); Cremers, Jolien; Einsiedler, Johanna; Christensen, Frederik Kølby; Eriksen, Stine Nymann; Kohler, Sören Benjamin Albrecht; Mortensen, Laust Hvas |
| Abstract: | This paper describes a register based multilayered network of the whole Danish population 2008-2021. The network maps potential relationships though family, households, neighbourhoods, colleagues and classmates. In a population of around 6 million we are able to map and track the evolution of an extremely dense network of connections through multiple layers. The paper briefly describes the construction of the networks and provides some details on the properties of the network. |
| Date: | 2023–12–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9wsx7&r= |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | This paper outlines and analyses the evolution of the manner in which investment treaties have dealt with the question of importing dispute settlement arrangements from third-party treaties. |
| Date: | 2022–11–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:dafaaa:2022/1-en&r= |
| By: | J. David López-Salido; Emily J. Markowitz; Edward Nelson |
| Abstract: | By examining statements made by the Federal Reserve leadership since the early 1950s, we establish that there has been considerable continuity in policymakers’ perceptions of the benefits of price stability. Policymakers have consistently contended that deviations from price stability give rise to greater cyclical instability, and they have also frequently suggested that potential output is significantly lowered by inflation. The recurrent support for price stability that comes through in these statements implies that it is invalid to take periods in the U.S. record of deviations from price stability as indicating a policymaker belief in the desirability of inflation. |
| Keywords: | Dual mandate; Federal Reserve; Price stability; Costs of inflation; Phillips curve; Superneutrality; Monetary policy objectives |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2024–06–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-41&r= |
| By: | Acciari, Paolo; Alvaredo, Facundo; Morelli, Salvatore |
| Abstract: | We estimate the distribution of wealth in Italy between 1995 and 2016 using a novel source of inheritance tax files, combined with surveys and national accounts. We find that the level of wealth concentration is in line with other European countries; however, its time trend appears more in line with the US, showing a significant increase over the period studied. The country exhibits one of the greatest declines in the wealth share of the bottom 50%. The paper also shows that age plays a marginal role in explaining wealth concentration. Changes in savings, instead, are the predominant force behind the increase in wealth inequality, even at the top. Equity prices also account for a large share of wealth growth above the 99th percentile, whereas changes in house prices play only a minor role. Finally, we document the growing concentration of life-time wealth transfers, and their increasingly favorable tax treatment. |
| JEL: | D30 G00 H24 N30 |
| Date: | 2024–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:123965&r= |
| By: | Bispinck, Reinhard |
| Keywords: | Tarifarchiv, Tarifpolitik, Tarifvertrag, Gewerkschaft, DGB |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wsieqt:300002&r= |