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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2024‒07‒15
forty papers chosen by |
| By: | Olivier J. Blanchard; Ben S. Bernanke |
| Abstract: | In a collaborative project with ten central banks, we have investigated the causes of the post-pandemic global inflation, building on our earlier work for the United States. Globally, as in the United States, pandemic-era inflation was due primarily to supply disruptions and sharp increases in the prices of food and energy; however, and in sharp contrast to the 1970s, the inflationary effects of these supply shocks have not been persistent, in part due to the credibility of central bank inflation targets. As the effects of supply shocks have subsided, tight labor markets, and the rises in nominal wages, have become relatively more important sources of inflation in many countries. In several countries, including the United States, curbing wage inflation and returning price inflation to target may require a period of modestly higher unemployment. |
| JEL: | E30 E31 E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32532&r= |
| By: | Gustavo A. Del Angel (division of economics, cide) |
| Abstract: | This paper explains the historical development of agricultural insurance and reinsurance in Mexico in the second half of the 20th century. The central argument is that the Mexican government did not fully actívate the rural insurance and reinsurance markets since it continued to intervene in the crop insurance matkets with political purposes. In Mexico, since its origins in1961, and during most of the period under study, agricultural insurance was provided to farmers mainly by the government. through a state-owned insurance company. Anagsa. Although during the 1960s crop insurance in Mexico was based on technical criteria, in following decades its allocation was base don political criterio and a mechanism that fosterd corrupt practices. After reform in 1990, agricultural insurance faced a promising horizon. However, always had the challenge of political intervention by the government. This is a preliminary versión of a chapter prepared for the book Role of Reinsurance in the World, edity by Leonardo Caruana de las Cagigas and André Straus. |
| Keywords: | rural insurance, rural reinsurance, history of insurance, Mexico. |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emc:wpaper:dte626&r= |
| By: | William N. Goetzmann; Akiko Watanabe; Masahiro Watanabe |
| Abstract: | We find that procyclical stocks, whose returns comove with business cycles, earn higher average returns than countercyclical stocks. We use almost a three-quarter century of real GDP growth expectations from economists’ surveys to determine forecasted economic states. This approach largely avoids the confounding effects of econometric forecasting model error. The loading on the expected real GDP growth rate is a priced risk measure. A fully tradable, ex-ante portfolio formed on this loading generates a procyclicality premium that is statistically significant, economically large, long-lasting over a few years, and independent of the size, book-to-market, and momentum effects. |
| JEL: | E32 E44 G12 G14 G17 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32509&r= |
| By: | Andrés Blanco; Corina Boar; Callum J. Jones; Virgiliu Midrigan |
| Abstract: | We develop a tractable sticky price model in which the fraction of price changes evolves endogenously over time and, consistent with the evidence, increases with inflation. Because we assume that firms sell multiple products and choose how many, but not which, prices to adjust in any given period, our model admits exact aggregation and reduces to a one-equation extension of the Calvo model. This additional equation determines the fraction of price changes. The model features a powerful inflation accelerator—a feedback loop between inflation and the fraction of price changes—which significantly increases the slope of the Phillips curve during periods of high inflation. Applied to the U.S. time series, our model predicts that the slope of the Phillips curve ranges from 0.02 in the 1990s to 0.20 in the 1970s and 1980s. |
| JEL: | E3 E40 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32531&r= |
| By: | Emily Silcock; Abhishek Arora; Luca D'Amico-Wong; Melissa Dell |
| Abstract: | In the U.S. historically, local newspapers drew their content largely from newswires like the Associated Press. Historians argue that newswires played a pivotal role in creating a national identity and shared understanding of the world, but there is no comprehensive archive of the content sent over newswires. We reconstruct such an archive by applying a customized deep learning pipeline to hundreds of terabytes of raw image scans from thousands of local newspapers. The resulting dataset contains 2.7 million unique public domain U.S. newswire articles, written between 1878 and 1977. Locations in these articles are georeferenced, topics are tagged using customized neural topic classification, named entities are recognized, and individuals are disambiguated to Wikipedia using a novel entity disambiguation model. To construct the Newswire dataset, we first recognize newspaper layouts and transcribe around 138 millions structured article texts from raw image scans. We then use a customized neural bi-encoder model to de-duplicate reproduced articles, in the presence of considerable abridgement and noise, quantifying how widely each article was reproduced. A text classifier is used to ensure that we only include newswire articles, which historically are in the public domain. The structured data that accompany the texts provide rich information about the who (disambiguated individuals), what (topics), and where (georeferencing) of the news that millions of Americans read over the course of a century. We also include Library of Congress metadata information about the newspapers that ran the articles on their front pages. The Newswire dataset is useful both for large language modeling - expanding training data beyond what is available from modern web texts - and for studying a diversity of questions in computational linguistics, social science, and the digital humanities. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2406.09490&r= |
| By: | Miller, Marcus (University of Warwick, CAGE and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | As the world experiences a fourth industrial revolution - in Information Technology - we look back at how things turned out in the first Industrial Revolution, which began when Adam Smith was writing The Wealth of Nations. For the historical record, we draw on the recent study of Power and Progress by Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson, who describe how the benefits of innovation were – or were not - spread across society in Britain at that time. This paper focuses on the case of India under colonial rule, however, where two themes emerge. First, how the transfer of technology under the control of a private company – based in London and granted monopoly powers by the British government - was enough to stymie the ‘virtuous spiral of Smithian growth’ for a century or more. Second, how two centuries of colonial control also deprived the indigenous population of what Amartya Sen has claimed is the key insurance against famine - namely democratic accountability. The paper end with brief remarks on how industrial policy in India of today could help spread the benefits of the current IT revolution. |
| Keywords: | Adam Smith ; specialisation ; development ; colonisation ; famine ; case studies in economic history JEL Codes: B12 ; F54 ; L12 ; Q1 ; O30 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1497&r= |
| By: | Giovanni Valvassori Bolg\`e |
| Abstract: | This paper seeks to explore the potential trade-off arising between the theories of $\textit{Equality of Opportunity}$ and $\textit{Opportunity Pluralism}$. Whereas the first theory has received much attention in the literature on Welfare Economics, the second one has only recently been introduced with the publication of the book by Joseph Fishkin, $\textit{Bottlenecks: A New Theory of Equal Opportunity}$. After arguing extensively that any notion of human flourishing is incompatible with traditional theories of $\textit{Equality of Opportunity}$, the author proposes an alternative theory squarely based on a broad notion of human development. This paper seeks to formalize the argument made in this book through the lens of economic theory. My analysis suggests that traditional theories of $\textit{Equality of Opportunity}$ are not incompatible with $\textit{Opportunity Pluralism}$. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2406.08955&r= |
| By: | Jonas Grangeray (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - LABEX ICCA - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord) |
| Abstract: | During the Great Depression, the 100% reserve banking proposal was put forward by several leading economists, including Henry Simons and Irving Fisher. The central idea of 100% reserve is to make money exogenous, under the control of the State. This article demonstrate, by comparing his writings with those of Fisher, that Simons understood the fundamental limit to 100% reserves : money is and will remain endogenous even after the reform. |
| Abstract: | Durant la Grande Dépression, la proposition de 100% réserves est mise en avant par une série d'économistes de premier plan, dont Henry Simons et Irving Fisher. L'idée centrale du 100% réserves est de rendre la monnaie exogène, sous le contrôle de l'État. On montre dans cet article, en confrontant ses écrits avec ceux de Fisher, que Simons avait compris la limite fondamentale posée au 100% réserves : la monnaie est et restera endogène même une fois la réforme mise en œuvre. |
| Keywords: | Henry Simons, Irving Fisher, 100% reserve banking, fractional-reserve banking, exogenous money, endogenous money, near money, velocity of money, 100% réserves, système bancaire à réserves fractionnaires, monnaie exogène, monnaie endogène, quasi-monnaies, vélocité de la monnaie, Henry Simons Irving Fisher 100% réserves système bancaire à réserves fractionnaires monnaie exogène monnaie endogène quasi-monnaie vélocité de la monnaie Henry Simons Irving Fisher 100% reserve banking fractional-reserve banking exogenous money endogenous money near money velocity of money JEL, quasi-monnaie, vélocité de la monnaie Henry Simons, velocity of money JEL |
| Date: | 2024–06–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04611718&r= |
| By: | David Agorastos; Rowena Gray; Ronan Lyons; Allison Shertzer |
| Abstract: | We construct the first consistent market rent and home sales price series for American cities across the 20th century using millions of newspaper real estate listings. Our findings revise several stylized facts about U.S. housing markets. Real market rents did not fall during the 20th century for most cities. Instead, real rental price levels increased by about 20 percent from 1890 to 2006. There was also greater growth in real housing sales prices from 1965 to 1995 than is commonly understood. Using these series, we document several new facts about housing markets. The return to homeownership has varied considerably across cities and over time, but rental returns were historically much more important than capital gains in every city. We discuss the implications of our indices for the business cycle and the consumer price index. Finally, we provide evidence that housing prices increased unevenly across cities over time in response to natural building and regulatory constraints |
| Keywords: | Housing prices; rental indices; hedonic analysis; housing markets |
| JEL: | E3 N1 O18 R3 |
| Date: | 2024–06–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:98408&r= |
| By: | Clark, Gregory; Cummins, Neil; Curtis, Matthew |
| Abstract: | The European Marriage Pattern (EMP), in place in NW Europe for perhaps 500 years, substantially limited fertility. But how could such limitation persist when some individuals who deviated from the EMP norm had more children? If their children inherited their deviant behaviors, their descendants would quickly become the majority of later generations. This puzzle has two possible solutions. The first is that all those that deviated actually had lower net fertility over multiple generations. We show, however, no fertility penalty to future generations from higher initial fertility. Instead the EMP survived because even though the EMP persisted at the social level, children did not inherit their parents’ individual fertility choices. In the paper we show evidence consistent with lateral, as opposed to vertical, transmission of EMP fertility behaviors. |
| Keywords: | demography; economic history; European marriage pattern; selection pressures; Elsevier deal |
| JEL: | N13 N11 J12 |
| Date: | 2024–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:123433&r= |
| By: | Veselov, Dmitry (Higher School of Economics (HSE)); Yarkin, Alexander |
| Abstract: | Industrial policies, such as infrastructure investments and export tariffs, affect the allocation of labor and incomes across sectors, attracting substantial lobbying efforts by special interest groups. Yet, the link between structural change and lobbying remains underexplored. Using more than 150 years of data on parliamentary petitions in USA and Britain, we measure historical lobbying and document several stylized facts. First, lobbying over industrial policies follows a hump-shaped path in the course of structural change, while agricultural lobbying steadily declines. Second, big capitalists (manufacturers, merchants) are most active in lobbying for industrialization. Third, industrial concentration increases progressive lobbying, while concentrated landownership slows it down. We explain these patterns in a simple model of structural change augmented with a heterogeneous agents lobbying game. Model simulations match the dynamics of structural change, inequality, and lobbying for industrialization in the British data. |
| Keywords: | political economy, structural change, lobbying, wealth distribution, growth |
| JEL: | D33 D72 N10 N41 O14 O41 O43 P00 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17045&r= |
| By: | Graf von Luckner, Clemens M.; Meyer, Josefin; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph |
| Abstract: | We study sovereign external debt crises over the past 200 years, with a focus on creditor losses, or "haircuts". Our sample covers 327 sovereign debt restructurings with external private creditors over 205 default spells since 1815. Creditor losses vary widely (from none to 100%), but the statistical distribution has remained remarkably stable over two centuries, with an average haircut of around 45 percent. The data also reveal that 'serial restructurings', meaning two or more debt exchanges in the same default spell, are on the rise. To account for this trend toward serial renegotiation, we introduce the 'Bulow-Rogoff haircut' - a cumulative measure that captures the combined creditor loss across all restructurings during a single debt crisis. Using this measure, we show that longer debt crises deliver larger haircuts and that interim restructurings provide limited debt relief. We further examine past predictors of the size of haircuts and identify 'rules of thumb' applicable to future defaults. Poorer countries, first-time debt issuers, and those that borrowed heavily from external creditors all record significantly higher haircuts in case of a default. Geopolitical shocks - such as wars, revolutions, or the break-up of empires - deliver the deepest haircuts. Sovereign debt investment disasters are often linked to (geo-)political disasters. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign Default, Debt Restructuring, Credit Events, Financial Crises, Geopolitical Risk |
| JEL: | F34 H63 G15 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:299232&r= |
| By: | Wake, Marvalee |
| Keywords: | Arts and Humanities |
| Date: | 2023–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:cshedu:qt9q8490n1&r= |
| By: | Ruveyda Nur Gozen |
| Abstract: | How do stronger property rights for disadvantaged groups affect innovation? I investigate the impact of strengthened property rights for women on U.S. innovation by analyzing the Married Women's Property Acts, which granted equal property rights to women starting in 1845 in New York State. I examine the universe of granted patents from 1790 until 1901, exploiting the staggered adoption of the laws over time across states. The strengthening of women's property rights led to a 40% increase in patenting activity among women in the long run, with effects peaking about a decade after the laws were introduced. Importantly, women's innovations were not of lower quality (as measured by a novelty index based on patent text analysis) and did not generate negative effects on male innovation. Finally, I show that the main mechanism was through higher human capital accumulation among women inventors and innovation incentives, rather than an increase in participation in STEM fields, labor force participation, or relieving financial frictions. |
| Keywords: | innovations, gender, property rights, economic development |
| Date: | 2024–06–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2005&r= |
| By: | Marchingiglio, Riccardo (Northwestern University); Poyker, Mikhail (University of Texas Austin and University of Nottingham) |
| Abstract: | Using full count U.S. census data, we study the impact of early 20th-century state-industry-specific minimum wage laws that primarily targeted female employees. Our triple-difference estimates suggest a null impact of the minimum wage laws, potentially reflecting disemployment effects and the positive selection bias of the workers remaining in the labor force. When comparing county-industry trends between counties straddling state borders, female employment is lower by around 3.1% in affected county-industry cells. We further investigate the implications for own-wage elasticity of labor demand as a function of cross-industry concentration, the channels of substitution between men and women, and heterogeneity by marital status. |
| Keywords: | minimum wage, labor demand, gender gap, labor markets |
| JEL: | J16 J23 N32 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17016&r= |
| By: | Chadha J. S., Samiri, I.; Samiri, I. |
| Abstract: | We investigate UK labour productivity over the long run, comparing it to other advanced economies and focus on the sharp slowdown since the global financial crisis. Using a growth accounting framework, we find a dominant role for total factor productivity (TFP), but it turns out that capital shallowing is also important. Two macroeconomic trends deepen the puzzle of this slowdown. There has been a decline in real interest rates over the past 30 years and an increase in labour supply since 2008, both of which ought to have increased investment. And yet, the ratio of (nominal) private and public investment to GDP has fallen over time. We go on to examine the UK’s productivity performance through the lens of standard neoclassical models and reconsider the secular stagnation debate in the UK context. Finally, we survey several explanations from recent economic literature for the poor performance of investment. |
| Keywords: | Productivity, Macroeconomics, Real Interest Rates, Investment |
| JEL: | E22 E24 E32 E44 E51 E62 O16 O42 O47 |
| Date: | 2024–06–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2437&r= |
| By: | AMBASHI Masahito; IWASAKI Fusanori |
| Abstract: | The policy term “industrial cooperation†has long been positioned as a tool of trade strategy in Japan; mainly by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (and now currently as the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry). In the context of international industrial policy, industrial cooperation is interpreted as a commitment to reciprocal cooperation in the field of industry among countries. Our paper analyzes what post-war Japanese international industrial policy in relation to industrial cooperation was intended to accomplish, by quantitatively evaluating a series of minutes of the National Diet proceedings in which the policy term “industrial cooperation†appears, based on the text-analysis method. According to our analysis, while this term has been used in debates at the National Diet since the 1960s, its use became prominent in the 1980s when Japanese industrial competitiveness was conspicuous. Through detailed analysis of the texts, our paper finds that the international industrial policy issues where industrial cooperation was used as a policy tool evolved from the initial response to the trade conflicts with the United States and the European Commission to issues such as procurement of global natural resources and gain of economic benefits from the rapidly growing ASEAN economies. As suggested by the analysis of industrial cooperation in this paper, it is important to understand policy tools of international industrial policy within the context of the historical background and circumstances of their implementation, even if they are seemingly similar. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rpdpjp:24007&r= |
| By: | L. Rachel Ngai; Claudia Olivetti; Barbara Petrongolo |
| Abstract: | Women's contribution to the economy has been markedly underestimated in predominantly agricultural societies, due to their widespread involvement in unpaid agricultural work. Combining data from the US Census and several early sources, we create a consistent measure of male and female employment and hours for the US for 1870-2019, including paid work and unpaid work in family farms and non-farm businesses. The resulting measure of hours traces a U-shape for women, with a modest decline up to mid-20th century followed by a sustained increase, and a monotonic decline for men. We propose a multisector economy with uneven productivity growth, income effects, and consumption complementarity across sectoral outputs. During early development stages, declining agriculture leads to rising services - both in the market and the home - and leisure, reducing market work for both genders. In later stages, structural transformation reallocates labor from manufacturing into services, while marketization reallocates labor from home to market services. Given gender comparative advantages, the first channel is more relevant for men, reducing male hours, while the second channel is more relevant for women, increasing female hours. Our quantitative illustration suggests that structural transformation and marketization can account for the overall decline in market hours from 1880-1950, and one quarter of the rise and decline, respectively, in female and male market hours from 1950-2019. |
| Keywords: | hours, work, gender, structural transformation |
| Date: | 2024–06–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2001&r= |
| By: | Campbell, Douglas; Brodeur, Abel; Johannesson, Magnus; Kopecky, Joseph; Lusher, Lester; Tsoy, Nikita |
| Abstract: | Berger, Easterly, Nunn and Satyanath (2013) find that increased US political influence, arising from Cold War interventions, was used to create a larger export market for American products. They find that after CIA interventions, US imports increased dramatically, and the authors rule out other explanations. We first reproduce all regression tables in Berger et al. (2013), and then test for robustness by controlling for imports from other NATO countries and various forms of US aid, sanctions, by multi-way clustering the errors, and by conducting influential analysis. We find that the impact of CIA interventions on US exports is sensitive to additional controls and omitting outliers, although adding in region*year interactive fixed effects tends to strengthen the results. Overall, we find that the paper's original results are robust with a coefficient in the same direction and significant at 5% in 17% of the robustness checks we ran (although 58% were significant at 10%). We find t/z scores 58% as large as the original study on average. |
| Keywords: | Cold War, Trade, CIA interventions, Globalization and International Relations |
| JEL: | D72 F14 F54 N42 N72 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:131&r= |
| By: | Basile Clerc |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the analysis of corporatism in post-World War II economic policies in France. Focusing on the “Comité National des Prix” (National Price Committee, CNP), in which employee and employer unions debate price-control decisions, we show that, despite appearances, this institution and, hence, price policy, cannot be considered a form of corporatism. Two elements support this thesis. First, decisions to freeze prices, which were particularly frequent in the 1950s, were systematically adopted despite the joint opposition of the two main trade unions: the CGT and the CNPF. Second, the "contractual turn" in pricing policy in the 1960s, inspired by corporatist thinking and reflections on "incomes policy", took place despite a structural opposition between employee and employer unions. The ambition of a "corporatist turn" in planning in the 1960s was thus thwarted by the persistence of major union antagonisms, as much as by the verticality of decision-making on pricing. |
| Keywords: | Price control ; corporatism ; incomes policy |
| JEL: | N00 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2024-21&r= |
| By: | Rupieper, Li Kathrin Kaja; Thomsen, Stephan L. |
| Abstract: | After the German Reunification in 1990, East Germany transitioned from a centrally planned economic system to a market economy. To tackle surging unemployment, upskilling through adult education was deemed essential at the time. Besides substantial mandatory training programs provided by active labor market policies, Volkshochschulen (VHS) were the most important providers of voluntary adult education. Based on newly digitized data, we estimate how VHS courses affected unemployment in a county-level analysis of East Germany between 1991 and 2002. Our identification strategy employs the decentralized expansion of courses, which led to substantial, quasi-random variation in their regional supply. We do not find any significant effects of VHS courses on subsequent unemployment. Lacking labor demand and low market dynamics may have restricted the realization of education effects. Regional disparities support this notion: In counties bordering West Germany, we find that courses did reduce unemployment. Our results hint towards multiple mechanisms at play, as both work-related and recreational courses were found to be effective in border counties. |
| Keywords: | unemployment, adult education, non-formal education, Volkshochschule, East Germany |
| JEL: | I21 J24 N34 P20 P36 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-721&r= |
| By: | Lucie Coufalová (Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Economics, Brno, Czech Republic); Michaela Kecskésová (Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Economics, Brno, Czech Republic); Štěpán Mikula (Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Economics, Brno, Czech Republic); Michal Ševčík (Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Economics, Brno, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of regional development on democracy building in the Czech Republic following the fall of the Iron Curtain and the autocratic communist regime in 1989. By exploiting the variation in regional development arising from the economic transition process, we identify that regional development, approximated by nighttime light intensity growth, leads to a rise in voter turnout in parliamentary elections. The heightened voter turnout is associated with increased electoral support for pro-system, pro-democratic parties, indicating that regional development facilitates democracy building. Conversely, we find no effect of regional development on the electoral support for the direct successor of the pre-1989 Communist Party. This suggests that while regional development may mitigate anti-system sentiment, it does not eliminate nostalgia for the fallen autocratic regime. |
| Keywords: | economic voting; Czech parliamentary elections; democracy building; voter turnout; economic transition; nighttime lights; regional development; communotropic voting |
| JEL: | D72 P25 O18 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mub:wpaper:2024-04&r= |
| By: | James B. Glattfelder; Richard B. Olsen |
| Abstract: | The concept of time mostly plays a subordinate role in finance and economics. The assumption is that time flows continuously and that time series data should be analyzed at regular, equidistant intervals. Nonetheless, already nearly 60 years ago, the concept of an event-based measure of time was first introduced. This paper expands on this theme by discussing the paradigm of intrinsic time, its origins, history, and modern applications. Departing from traditional, continuous measures of time, intrinsic time proposes an event-based, algorithmic framework that captures the dynamic and fluctuating nature of real-world phenomena more accurately. Unsuspected implications arise in general for complex systems and specifically for financial markets. For instance, novel structures and regularities are revealed, otherwise obscured by any analysis utilizing equidistant time intervals. Of particular interest is the emergence of a multiplicity of scaling laws, a hallmark signature of an underlying organizational principle in complex systems. Moreover, a central insight from this novel paradigm is the realization that universal time does not exist; instead, time is observer-dependent, shaped by the intrinsic activity unfolding within complex systems. This research opens up new avenues for economic modeling and forecasting, paving the way for a deeper understanding of the invisible forces that guide the evolution and emergence of market dynamics and financial systems. An exciting and rich landscape of possibilities emerges within the paradigm of intrinsic time. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2406.07354&r= |
| By: | Jennifer Hunt; Carolyn Moehling |
| Abstract: | We create a dataset of 14, 000 hand-coded help-wanted advertisements placed by employment agencies in three U.S. newspapers in 1950 and 1960, a time when helpâ€"wanted advertisements were divided into male and female sections and collect information on agency ownership. We find that female-owned agencies specialized in vacancies for women, thereby expanding the access of female jobseekers to agency services, including for positions in majority-male occupations. Female-owned agencies advertised more skilled occupations to women than did male-owned agencies, leading to a 5.5% higher wage for women. On the other hand, femaleâ€"owned agencies had a greater propensity to match male jobseekers to clerical jobs, contributing to 21% lower male wages than for male-owned agencies. The results are consistent with female proprietors having had a comparative advantage in female jobseekers and clerical occupations or with client firms having trusted female proprietors only with vacancies for women and homogeneous, lower-skill occupations. However, in choosing to establish an agency and to specialize in female jobseekers, female proprietors may have sought to mitigate employer discrimination against female jobseekers; their higher propensity to advertise majority-male occupations among professional, technical and managerial advertisements for women may also reflect discrimination mitigation. |
| Keywords: | employment, discrimination, employment agencies |
| Date: | 2024–06–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2004&r= |
| By: | M. P. Ram Mohan; Astha Pandey |
| Abstract: | In the last century, the meaning and interpretation of the purpose of the corporation has undergone a succession of ideological shifts. Corporate purpose has become the prime focus of wide-ranging debates over the shareholder primacy versus the stakeholder primacy conceptualization of the corporation. While this debate is not new, in recent times, stakeholderism and its enduring viability as a theory of the corporation has gained considerable traction. At the same time, shareholder primacy and its explanatory power as a valid theory of contemporary organizations is being increasingly questioned. The current Indian legal and regulatory framework governing corporate purpose embodies stakeholderism. In sharp contrast to this, the Anglo-American corporate law framework can be characterized as predominantly shareholder-centric. This article seeks to contribute to contemporary discourse on the theorization of corporations by evaluating the stakeholder-oriented corporate purpose framework adopted by India. In doing this, it examines the historical trajectory of the doctrine of corporate purpose in the U.S., the U.K. and India. This comparative analysis provides an opportunity for enhancing discussions on corporate purpose in comparative corporate governance scholarship given the common law heritage of these jurisdictions and the differences between them in terms of ownership patterns, governance structures and philosophies that have guided their experience with corporate purpose. Broadly, this article makes the following arguments: (i) tracing the evolution of corporate purpose demonstrates that there is a need for its re-evaluation; and (ii) despite adopting the pluralistic form of stakeholder governance, the Indian framework governing corporate purpose is lacking in certain fundamental aspects. The article also proposes certain areas for further scholarly investigation to inform the re-evaluation of corporate purpose and the direction of comparative corporate governance scholarship. |
| Date: | 2024–06–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:14713&r= |
| By: | O'Brien, David |
| Keywords: | Education |
| Date: | 2024–06–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:cshedu:qt9vb7h8xc&r= |
| By: | Lise Arena (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Antoine Fabre (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Pierre Labardin (ULR - La Rochelle Université) |
| Abstract: | This work focuses on how promissory organisations (Pollock and Williams, 2018) participate in the shaping of technological futures for organisations and markets. Based on existing contributions in the field of MIS that borrow analytical frameworks from ‘future studies', we question the vehicles of technological promise regimes in the healthcare sector, which is particularly impacted by the current digital transformation phenomenon. The aim of this retrospective analysis is twofold. First, it provides a better understanding of the use of a historical processual approach to understanding the forms of promise. Then, on the basis of an empirical analysis of a corpus of reports from consultancy firms over 8 years, it shows how these discourses project technological promises into the healthcare sector. |
| Abstract: | Cet article s'intéresse à la manière dont les organisations promissoires (Pollock et Williams, 2018) participent à la fabrique des futurs technologiques des organisations et des marchés. En se fondant sur les contributions existantes dans le champ du MSI qui empruntent des cadres d'analyse aux ‘future studies', nous nous interrogeons sur les véhicules de régimes de promesses technologiques dans le contexte actuel de transformation digitale. A travers une analyse longitudinale, l'objectif de ce travail est double. Il permet d'abord de mieux comprendre l'intérêt d'une approche processuelle historique pour saisir les formes de promesses. Puis, sur la base d'une analyse empirique d'un corpus de rapports de cabinets de conseil sur une durée de 8 ans, nous proposons de mieux comprendre comment ces discours projettent des promesses technologiques dans le secteur de la santé. |
| Keywords: | Technological futures, promissory organizations, history, consultancy firms, longitudinal approach, Futurs technologiques, analyse longitudinale, Organisations promissoires, histoire, cabinets de conseil |
| Date: | 2024–05–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04593539&r= |
| By: | Mc Kenzie, Mc Kenzie, Rex A. (Kingston University London) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I present a comparative analysis of my recent work and Gary A. Dymski's contributions to the study of inequality and uneven development. By examining the similarities between our approaches, I emphasise our shared commitment to challenging conventional economic wisdom and exploring the complex dynamics of economic systems through interdisciplinary and institutionalist lenses. My paper, "What is balance-sheet driven and real estate backed?" argues for the importance of studying housing within economics and calls for a more inclusive and diverse approach to economic research. Dymski's paper, "The Dual Separation Processes in Capitalist Accumulation: From Imperialism to Internal Colony to Financialization, " explores the historical roots and contemporary manifestations of the separation between ownership and control, and between money-seeking capital and productive capital. Through this comparative analysis, I identify several notable similarities between our works, including an emphasis on the role of institutions in shaping economic outcomes, engagement with interdisciplinary perspectives, and a critique of neoclassical economics. We both draw upon the works of scholars from various fields and apply concepts such as David Harvey's "accumulation by dispossession" to analyse the dynamics of capitalism and inequality. I argue that our combined contributions open up a rich and potentially powerful research agenda, inviting scholars to examine more deeply the complex dynamics of inequality, uneven development, and the role of institutions in shaping economic systems. This agenda encompasses the need to further investigate the dual separation principles, explore the dynamics of housing and inequality, engage with the experiences and perspectives of the Global South, and develop alternative economic frameworks and methodologies. By building on these insights, we can push the boundaries of economic analysis and work towards a more equitable and sustainable future. |
| Keywords: | Inequality; Uneven Development; Institutional Economics; Interdisciplinary; Capitalism |
| JEL: | B50 O18 P16 |
| Date: | 2024–06–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kngedp:2024_001&r= |
| By: | Thomas Palley |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the military-industrial complex (MIC), which is a prototype widely imitated by other business sectors. Collectively, they constitute a variety of capitalism which can be termed the poly-industrial complex (PIC). Understanding the MIC is critical to understanding contemporary US capitalism, US international policy, and the drift toward Cold War II. The MIC exerts a massive societal impact. It twists economic activity toward military spending; twists the character of technical progress; is socially corrosive via its capture of politics and government; twists societal understanding of geopolitics to increase demand for war services; promotes militarism and increases the likelihood of war; and promotes proto-fascist drift because militarism drips back into national politics. Given those features, the MIC is of first-order significance and the consequences of failure to understand it are likely to be grim. Politics is at the center of possibilities for change. That raises questions whether the demand for change can be mustered, and whether the political system will permit it. |
| Keywords: | Military-industrial complex, war, miltarism, Neoliberalism, Neoconservatism, fascism |
| JEL: | D74 F51 H56 P10 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2409&r= |
| By: | Sánchez, Fabio (Universidad de los Andes); Duarte, Diego (Universidad de los Andes); Páez-Bucheli, Alejandra (Universidad de los Andes); Soto-Peña, Laura (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | Este artículo argumenta que la complejidad socioeconómica de las sociedades nativas determinó la dinámica de la conquista e influenció las trayectorias socioeconómicas regionales durante el período colonial. Mientras las sociedades de cazadores y recolectores fueron rápidamente aniquiladas, las sociedades agrícolas con especialización del trabajo negociaron su supervivencia. A partir de estos patrones, se identifican tres futuras trayectorias principales: la imposición de un sistema esclavista minero, la expansión de la frontera agrícola y el establecimiento de asentamientos españoles con mano de obra indígena bajo coerción. Desde las primeras expediciones de Rodrigo de Bastidas y Gonzalo Jiménez de Quesada hasta el establecimiento permanente de asentamientos, las interacciones estuvieron marcadas por diversos factores contextuales. En regiones con estructuras políticas desarrolladas, como los muiscas, los conquistadores adaptaron sistemas institucionales para la explotación de la mano de obra nativa. En áreas con sociedades menos jerarquizadas, prevaleció la explotación de oro mediante mano de obra esclava importada. En consecuencia, estas trayectorias contribuyeron a desarrollar diversas expresiones del Estado colonial en el territorio que más tarde se convertiría en la Nueva Granada. |
| Keywords: | pueblos indígenas; desarrollo precolonial en las Américas; colonización española; Colombia. |
| JEL: | N36 N56 N96 O13 |
| Date: | 2024–06–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021154&r= |
| By: | Andres Rivas (Primerica); Rahul Verma (University of Houston); Antonio Rodriguez (UREP - Unité Mixte de Recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial - UMR - VAS - VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, INIA-CISA - Centro de Investigacion en Sanidad Animal - INIA - Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria = National Institute for Agricultural and Food Research and Technology); Pedro Albuquerque (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Purpose: The article examines stock index price responses in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico to those in the US, Spain, and four European countries during three sub-periods surrounding the neoliberal reforms of the 1990s: 1988 to 1994, 1995 to 1998, and 1999 to 2004. Design/methodology/approach: The methodology is empirical and uses time series analysis, in particular impulse response functions (IRFs) derived using vector autoregression (VAR) models. Main Findings: It finds that equity markets became more interconnected as countries opened to international trade and capital flows and that there was an increasing impact of Spain on Latin American equity markets. Stronger economic linkages (more trade and foreign direct investment) between Spain and these countries, especially in Brazil, seem to explain increased equity market interconnectedness. Research limitations/implications: The study limitations are, in general, the same that apply to the VAR methodology, and in particular, to missing control variables or to possible bias in the selection of the subsample periods used as historical benchmarks. Originality/value: To our knowledge, no other work showed that there was an increasing impact of Spain on Latin American equity markets during the neoliberal reform period by using IRFs and VAR models. |
| Keywords: | Latin America, Spain, Stock markets interdependence, VAR modeling, Emerging markets |
| Date: | 2023–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04524989&r= |
| By: | Ahlers, Anna L |
| Abstract: | In this policy brief, Anna L. Ahlers, founder and head of the Lise Meitner Research Group at the Max Planck Institute for the History of Science (MPIWG), analyzes the Chinese Communist Party, which seeks to permeate every aspect of China’s social and economic life—including the realm of science, technology, and innovation. Chinese leadership has heightened calls for technological self-reliance and boosting indigenous innovation, but still recognizes the importance of foreign expertise and international collaboration for China’s domestic scientific efforts. Contradictions in the party’s approach to domestic science abound, and despite a visible politicization of scientific institutions, no discernable impact on China’s scientific production can be seen—yet. The Communist Party’s attempts to grow its influence in domestic science institutions nevertheless pose long-term risks to the quality of the country’s scientific output. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, chinese communist party, science technology and innovation |
| Date: | 2024–04–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:globco:qt1kj6r9q8&r= |
| By: | Pablo Ottonello; Diego J. Perez; William Witheridge |
| Abstract: | We study the role of exchange rates in industrial policy. We construct an open-economy macroeconomic framework with production externalities and show that the desirability of these policies critically depends on the dynamic patterns of externalities. When they are stronger in earlier stages of development, economies that are converging to the technological frontier can improve welfare by intervening in foreign exchange markets, keeping the exchange rate undervalued, and speeding the transition; economies that are not converging to the technological frontier are better off not using the exchange rate as an industrial policy tool. Capital-flow mobility and labor market dynamism play a central role in the effectiveness of these policies. We also discuss the role of capital controls as an industrial policy tool and use our framework to interpret historical experiences. |
| JEL: | F0 F3 F4 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32522&r= |
| By: | Campbell, Douglas; Brodeur, Abel; Johannesson, Magnus; Kopecky, Joseph; Lusher, Lester; Tsoy, Nikita |
| Abstract: | Naidu and Yuchtman (2013) find that labor demand shocks in 19th-century Britain had an impact on master and servant prosecutions, as breaking an employee contract was a criminal offense until 1875. We first reproduce all regression tables in Naidu and Yuchtman (2013) and then test for robustness by using a triple difference where we compare the impact of labor demand shocks on master and servant prosecutions relative to other prosecutions, changing the functional form of key variables, including region*year interactive fixed effects, and conducting influential analysis. We find that the results are sensitive to the triple difference specification and to region*year FEs, and otherwise robust. Overall, we find the results are robust in 50% of the checks we ran, and the t/z scores were on average 74% as large as the original study. |
| Keywords: | Labor Law, Contract Law, Labor Contracts, Labor Market Institutions, Economic History |
| JEL: | J31 J41 K12 K31 N33 N43 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:130&r= |
| By: | Moscati, Ivan |
| Abstract: | In 1961 Daniel Ellsberg published an article titled “Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms” in the Quarterly Journal of Economics, which became a seminal contribution to the theory of decision-making under uncertainty. This paper analyzes Ellsberg’s 1961 classic, situates it within the context of decision-making theory in the 1950s and early 1960s and within the development of Ellsberg’s ideas, and provides an overview of the experimental and theoretical literature to which it gave rise. |
| Keywords: | ambiguity; decision theory; Ellsberg; Ellsberg paradox; uncertainty |
| JEL: | J1 F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2024–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:123761&r= |
| By: | Thomas Delcey (UB - Université de Bourgogne, LEDi - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dijon [Dijon] - UB - Université de Bourgogne - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE]); Guillaume Noblet (Auteur indépendant) |
| Abstract: | This article offers a historical analysis of American interwar agricultural economists and their interest in information. Believing that the main problem facing farmers was a lack of information, agricultural economists designed an information policy aiming to produce, format, and disseminate information. Using administrative archives, the article analyzes the motivations of these economists and the implementation of this policy. As the article shows, the policy was a prerequisite for theoretical discussions about information, and it established institutional tools that are still used today, such as the USDA market news service. |
| Keywords: | History of economics, Agricultural economics, Economics of information |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03227973&r= |
| By: | Sezer, Ayse Hazal (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:88c702e1-8259-4424-b68a-df83002f5425&r= |
| By: | Chad Syverson |
| Abstract: | The North Dakota Railroad War of 1905, which pitted a potential entrant (the Soo Line) against an established monopolist incumbent (the Great Northern Railway), offers a lucid empirical example of strategic behavior, and in particular the potential for entry deterrence through product proliferation. I use detailed geographic data and historical records to examine the profitability of both the incumbent’s and entrant’s potential and chosen strategies. I find that the incumbent could have likely profitably deterred entry. It did not, however, waiting instead to respond only once the entrant began building. This simultaneous entry arguably led to over expansion in the market. I investigate whether the chosen strategies may have ultimately ended up being both unprofitable for the firms involved as well as, potentially, socially wasteful. |
| JEL: | L1 L9 N7 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32549&r= |
| By: | Santori, Paolo |
| Abstract: | Review of “Mary Wollstonecraft and Political Economy: The Feminist Critique of Commercial Modernity” by Catherine Packham. |
| Date: | 2024–06–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:g6qvs&r= |
| By: | Lucie Coufalová (Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Economics, Brno, Czech Republic); Fanny H. Dellinger (WIFO, Vienna, Austria); Peter Huber (WIFO, Vienna, Austria); Štěpán Mikula (Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Economics, Brno, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the impacts of three major unexpected border regime changes that occurred during the course of 20th century on population growth along the Austrian-Czech border. Using historical municipal-level census data reaching back to 1880, we find no effects of the dissolution of the Austro-Hungarian Empire (1919) but strong and oppositely signed effects of the drawing (1948) and the fall (1989) of the Iron Curtain in both countries. Our findings indicate that border regimes affect population growth via economic as well as non-economic mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | Population growth, border regions, economic geography |
| JEL: | N94 R12 R23 J11 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mub:wpaper:2024-03&r= |