|
on Business, Economic and Financial History |
|
Issue of 2024‒06‒10
thirty-one papers chosen by |
| By: | Adrián Palacios-Mateo |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a highly detailed database with information of more than 155, 000 individuals to construct wealth inequality during the mid-19th century for 655 towns in Navarre and Aragon. The compilation of this information, together with agrarian information, census data and Geographic Information System techniques, permits, not only the characterization of inequality through the territory in a pre-industrial and agrarian society, but the understanding of the determinants of it. Measure as the wealth accumulated by the upper percentile, inequality was driven by market dynamics as those towns with higher productivity, easy access to markets and growing demand had higher inequality. Moreover, the results show the resilience of aristocracy, being able to hold economic power while the society transformed around them. |
| Keywords: | wealth inequality, agrarian history, micro-data, 19th century Spain |
| JEL: | N33 N53 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:seh:wpaper:2402&r= |
| By: | Humphreys, Sheila |
| Keywords: | Arts and Humanities, 150w, UCB, Women Staff |
| Date: | 2024–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:cshedu:qt6zf7t2hq&r= |
| By: | Mitu Gulati (University of Virginia (Law)); Kim Oosterlinck (University of Bruxelles & CEPR); Ugo Panizza (Geneva Graduate Institute & CEPR); Mark C. Weidemaier (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (Law)) |
| Abstract: | This paper describes George Washington's administration response to a plea for emergency war financing from French colonists who were trying to quash a slave rebellion in Haiti (then Saint Domingue). Washington bypassed Congress and authorized assistance to the French planters, hoping that France would recognize and repay the resulting debt to the United States. The exploration of this episode offers insights on how legal constraints can be overlooked in times of crisis due to political imperatives. On the international law front, it reveals that legal norms perceived as firmly established today were more malleable in the late 18th century. To place the story of U.S. loans and foreign interference in Haiti in historical context, we provide a brief overview of Haiti's independence debt to France and the U.S. loans that led to the American occupation of 1915-1934. Our exploration, primarily sourced from secondary materials, raises more questions than answers. Nonetheless, we hope that by outlining the bare bones of the story and posing pertinent questions, we can inspire further research that digs deeper into this fascinating historical record. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign Debt, Haiti; Emergency War Financing; U.S. Foreign Policy |
| JEL: | N41 F34 K33 H56 |
| Date: | 2024–05–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp07-2024&r= |
| By: | Annette Godart-van der Kroon (President Ludwig von Mises Institute Europe) |
| Abstract: | On the occasion of Adam Smiths 300th birthday, commemorated in 2023, this contribution discusses some of his positions and their effects, particularly with regard to the present day, and addresses issues such as the so-called "Adam Smith problem". After an outline of Smith's central positions on liberalism, his relationship to some of his contemporary thinkers will be discussed. An assessment is made of the connection between real or apparent contradictions between Smiths major works, The Theory of Moral Sentiments and Wealth of Nations (the Adam Smith Problem), which is followed by some reflections on the famous "invisible hand". Finally, assessments of Smiths theory by Friedrich A. von Hayek and Ludwig von Mises are presented and an evaluation of his theory from todays perspective is made on the basis of the various reactions to his work. |
| Keywords: | Liberalism, the state, mercantilism, invisible hand, the Adam Smith Problem |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwu:schdps:sdp24001&r= |
| By: | Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio; Özak, Ömer (Southern Methodist University) |
| Abstract: | We explore the effect of historical ethnic borders on contemporary conflict in Africa. We document that the intensive and extensive margins of contemporary conflict are higher close to historical ethnic borders. Exploiting variations across artificial regions within an ethnicity's historical homeland and a theory-based instrumental variable approach, we find that regions crossed by historical ethnic borders have 27 percentage points higher probability of conflict and 7.9 percentage points higher probability of being the initial location of a conflict. We uncover several key underlying mechanisms: competition for agricultural land, population pressure, cultural similarity, and weak property rights. |
| Date: | 2024–05–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8uxd4&r= |
| By: | Jetter, Michael (University of Western Australia) |
| Abstract: | Is humanity's circle of moral concern expanding, as often claimed? I explore frequencies of morally universal language in 15m book publications in American English, British English, French, Spanish, German, and Italian from 1800-2000. In each language, morally universal terminology diminished substantially. I then test two prominent hypotheses predicting moral universalism: reason and religion. Reason-based terminology correlates positively with morally universal and morally communal terminology, explaining seemingly contradictory observations of the 20th century. In contrast, communal terminology sub-sides when religious terminology becomes more frequent. These empirical patterns cast doubt on prominent claims of moral universalism expanding. |
| Keywords: | Expanding Circle, moral universalism, moral expansiveness, reason, religion |
| JEL: | N30 Z12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16947&r= |
| By: | Natividad, Ivan |
| Keywords: | Arts and Humanities |
| Date: | 2024–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:cshedu:qt8j4398bm&r= |
| By: | Adrien Jean-Guy Passant (ISTEC - Institut supérieur des Sciences, Techniques et Economie Commerciales - ISTEC) |
| Abstract: | Although entrepreneurship is presently one of the core elements of business schools' curricula worldwide, little is known about the emergence and evolution of this type of training outside the U.S. A. To bridge this gap, this paper examines entrepreneurship training in France drawing on the case of ESCP, the oldest business school in the world. Its contribution is threefold. First, it details the determining role of contextual factors on the emergence and evolution of entrepreneurship instruction within a business school. Second, it illustrates that there is no automatic correspondence between the intention or the content of entrepreneurship courses and their results, which questions the nature of entrepreneurship instruction. Third, it examines the role of business school students in defining the boundaries between business education and entrepreneurial education. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship instruction, Entrepreneurship education, Entrepreneurial diversification, Business schools |
| Date: | 2024–01–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04553017&r= |
| By: | Thomas I. Palley |
| Abstract: | Keynes' General Theory was a massive step forward relative to classical economics, but it was also a step backward in its denial of the conflictual nature of capitalism. There is need to understand Keynes' technical contributions regarding the workings of monetary economies, but also need to understand the flaws within his thinking and the consequences thereof. Keynes made a fundamental contribution elucidating the mechanism of effective demand, and he also has claim to be the preeminent monetary theorist. However, owing to his denial of conflict, he had a flawed view of capitalism which is why establishment Keynesianism struggles to explain contemporary stagnation. That flawed view also undermines the case for Social Democracy. Contrary to conventional wisdom, his view of capitalism is supportive of Neoliberalism and Keynes can be viewed as a compassionate (Third Way) Neoliberal. |
| Keywords: | Keynes, The general theory, conflict, capitalism, stagnation, bastard Keynesians |
| JEL: | B2 B22 B3 B31 E00 P1 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:fmmpap:88-2023&r= |
| By: | INUKAI, Naho; 犬飼, 菜帆 |
| Keywords: | Still Birth, Neonatal Mortality, Premature Birth, Lying-in Hospital, Voluntary Hospital |
| JEL: | J11 J12 J13 N33 |
| Date: | 2024–05–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:econdp:2024-01&r= |
| By: | Lanot, Gauthier (Department of Economics, Umeå University); Tribe, Keith (University of Jyväskylä) |
| Abstract: | During the 1790s Britain experienced a series of poor harvests which, given an expanding population and wartime disruption to the European grain trade, resulted in sudden and rapid increases in the domestic price of wheat. In modern discussion of Corn and Poor Laws the severity of these fluctuations has been obscured by the use of annual average grain prices, despite weekly county prices being available from 1771 as published in the London Gazette. We highlight the uncertainties of grain prices during the period 1794-96, drawing upon extensive contemporary discussion published in the Annals of Agriculture of the problems arising from rapid fluctuations in the price of wheat. Our purpose is to demonstrate that the tropes usually today associated with the Corn and Poor Laws – pauperism, a clash between merchant, manufacturing and landlord interests, population and impoverishment – are absent from discussion during this period. A doctrinaire “political economy” would develop in the early 1800s, but did not yet exist. Policy argument drew upon casuistic reasoning from circumstance and past experience. We also show that this approach undermines any idea that Edmund Burke’s Thoughts and Details on Scarcity is in some way connected to “political economy”. |
| Keywords: | Corn Laws; grain prices; London Gazette; Annals of Agriculture; political economy; dearth |
| JEL: | B11 B12 P00 |
| Date: | 2024–05–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:umnees:1025&r= |
| By: | Javier Moreno Lázaro (Universidad de Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain) |
| Abstract: | This paper hypothesises that the annexation of Puerto Rico by the United States in 1898 led to a decline in material well-being, as measured by individual height, that lasted for the first three decades of the twentieth century. To demonstrate this, a significant sample has been created made up of the height of males born in Puerto Rico between 1877 and 1929 who were enlisted in the army between 1940 and 1947. In order to make the relevant comparisons a second sample with the heights of California residents has also been created. The results of the calculations show a sharp decline in the height of Puerto Ricans, both in relative and absolute terms. This deterioration was due to the shortcomings of the public policies implemented by the US government, which failed to improve the working, food, health and residential conditions of Puerto Ricans. In addition, they suffered the social costs of the price of sugar on the world market as well as those inherent in the late adoption of industrial capitalism. These results call into question the indolence of Spanish colonialism and highlight the difficulties of emerging US colonialism in generating welfare in the territories it occupied. |
| Keywords: | Anthropometry, Puerto Rico, Spain, United States, colonialism, standard of living |
| JEL: | F54 I32 N36 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahe:dtaehe:2404&r= |
| By: | Miles, Liz |
| Keywords: | Arts and Humanities |
| Date: | 2024–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:cshedu:qt9mv6h2xg&r= |
| By: | Etem, Pat Spratlen |
| Keywords: | Arts and Humanities |
| Date: | 2024–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:cshedu:qt4kg0c3kg&r= |
| By: | Carrasco, Desi |
| Keywords: | Arts and Humanities, 150w, UCB, Women's Basketball |
| Date: | 2024–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:cshedu:qt4f67f4mq&r= |
| By: | Zwiers, Esmée (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | In the Netherlands, an immediate baby boom followed the end of WWII and the baby bust of the 1930s. I propose a novel application of the bunching methodology to examine whether the war shifted the timing of fertility or changed women's completed fertility. I disaggregate the number of births by age for cohorts of mothers, and estimate counterfactual distributions of births by exploiting that women experienced the war at different ages. I show that the rise in fertility after the liberation did not make up for the "missed" births that did not occur prior to the war, as fertility would have been 9.4% higher in absence of WWII. |
| Keywords: | lifecycle fertility, bunching, World War II, The Netherlands |
| JEL: | J11 J13 J18 N34 N44 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16927&r= |
| By: | Sanoff, Carol Simpson |
| Keywords: | Arts and Humanities |
| Date: | 2024–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:cshedu:qt84c9w0br&r= |
| By: | Francisco José Goerlich Gisbert (Ivie (Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas)) |
| Abstract: | Historical population grids are scarce or rather nonexistent. This work represents a first effort in this direction. Using historical cadastral data and homogeneous population data at municipal level, constructed in different projects, we generate, for the whole of Spain, population grids with 100m x 100m and 1km x 1km resolutions and all census years from 1900 to 2021.These grids are top-down. The methods used are similar to those used in the generation of population grids for the entire globe in the last decades by combining information from satellite images with demographic information from censuses.Given the richness of cadastral information, and the possibility of going much further back in time than satellite information, we can generate much older population grids. Although far from perfect, these grids provide a better approximation to the distribution of the population in those years than the simple consideration of the municipal population or the count in the settlements derived from the gazet-teers associated with the censuses.The possibility of taking our estimates up to 2021, where we have a bottom-up population grid from the Spanish National Statistical Institute (INE) de-rived from the 2021 census allows us to validate our methods, albeit only for the most recent dates.This database should be considered work in progress, subject to validation through experimentation, and may undergo changes in the future. Las grids de población históricas son escasas o más bien inexistentes. Este trabajo representa un primer esfuerzo en esta dirección. Utilizando datos catastrales históricos y una base de datos homogénea de población a nivel municipal, construidos en diferen-tes proyectos, generamos, para toda España, grids de población con resoluciones de 100m x 100m y 1km x 1km y todos los años censales desde 1900 hasta 2021.Estas grids son top-down. Los métodos utilizados son similares a los utilizados en la generación de grids de población para todo el globo terrestre en las últimas décadas combinando información de imágenes de satélite con información demográfica de censos.Dada la riqueza de la información catastral, y la posibilidad de retroceder mucho más en el tiempo que la información satelital, podemos generar grids de población mucho más antiguas. Aún lejos de ser perfectas, estas grids proporcionan una mejor aproximación a la distribución de la población en aquellos años que la simple consideración de la población municipal o el recuento en los asentamientos derivado de los nomenclátores asociados a los censos.La posibilidad de llevar nuestras estimaciones hasta 2021, donde disponemos de una grid de población bottom-up procedente del Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE) derivada del censo de 2021, nos permite validar nuestros métodos, aunque sólo para las fechas más recientes.Esta base de datos debe considerarse un trabajo en curso, sujeto a validación mediante experimentación, y puede sufrir cambios en el futuro. |
| Keywords: | Palabras clave: Población; Censos; Grids de pobla-ción; Demografía. Population; Census; Population Grids; Demography. |
| JEL: | J11 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ivi:wpivie:2024-02&r= |
| By: | Yuri Okubo (CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | Focusing on Okinawan collaboration in the policy of migration to Southeast Asia in the 1940s to construct the "Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere, " this presentation aims to explore the tension between the Okinawan people's aspirations for the empire and their resistance to it. Okinawan intellectuals emphasized the importance of Okinawa as the “pioneer region of the southward advancement†based on its rich experience of their migration to Southeast Asia, because they wanted to be recognized a member of the Japanese Empire. The Okinawa Prefectural Office showed their collaboration by establishing training centers for southern migrants upon a request from the Ministry of Colonial Affairs which conducted the policy However, such collaboration was sometimes in conflict with the Okinawan identity. In its twilight years, what did the Japanese Empire demand the Okinawans to construct the Co-Prosperity Sphere, and what did the Okinawans offer? How did the contradiction and ambiguity appear discursively? My presentation examines the idea of the southward advancement in the early 1940s proposed by Okinawan intellectuals in Gekkan Bunka Okinawa and explores the two training centers above by using newspapers, movies, and official documents. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2024cf1228&r= |
| By: | Karol Jan Borowiecki (University of Southern Denmark); Martin Hørlyk Kristensen (University of Southern Denmark); Marc T. Law (University of Vermont) |
| Abstract: | Ludwig van Beethoven, Johann Sebastian Bach, and Frédéric Chopin are household names, but few will recognize Francesca Caccini, Elisabeth Lutyens or Amy M. Beach, who are among the top-10 female composers of all time. Why are female composers overshadowed by their male counterparts? Using novel data on over 17, 000 composers who lived from the sixth to the twentieth centuries, we conduct the first quantitative exploration of the gender gap among classical composers. We use the length of a composer's biographical entry in Grove Music Online to measure composer prominence, and shed light on the determinants of the gender gap with a focus on the development of composers' human capital through families, teachers, and institutionalized music education. The evidence suggests that parental musical background matters for composers' prominence, that the effects of teachers vary by the gender of the composer but the effects of parents do not, and while musician mothers and female teachers are important, they do not narrow the gender gap in composer prominence. We also find that the institutionalization of music education in conservatories increases the relative prominence of female composers. |
| Keywords: | gender gap, human capital, music education, music history, student-teacher interactions, conservatories |
| JEL: | I23 J16 J24 N30 Z11 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cue:wpaper:awp-01-2024&r= |
| By: | Hunt, Jennifer (Rutgers University); Moehling, Carolyn (Rutgers University) |
| Abstract: | We create a dataset of 14, 000 hand–coded help–wanted advertisements placed by employment agencies in three U.S. newspapers in 1950 and 1960, a time when help–wanted advertisements were divided into male and female sections, and collect information on agency ownership. We find that female–owned agencies specialized in vacancies for women, thereby expanding the access of female jobseekers to agency services, including for positions in majority–male occupations. Female–owned agencies advertised more skilled occupations to women than did male–owned agencies, leading to a 5.5% higher wage for women. On the other hand, female–owned agencies had a greater propensity to match male jobseekers to clerical jobs, contributing to 21% lower male wages than for male–owned agencies. The results are consistent with female proprietors having had a comparative advantage in female jobseekers and clerical occupations or with client firms having trusted female proprietors only with vacancies for women and homogeneous, lower–skill occupations. However, in choosing to establish an agency and to specialize in female jobseekers, female proprietors may have sought to mitigate employer discrimination against female jobseekers; their higher propensity to advertise majority–male occupations among professional, technical and managerial advertisements for women may also reflect discrimination mitigation. |
| Keywords: | job matching, discrimination, gender, employment agencies |
| JEL: | N12 J63 J16 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16941&r= |
| By: | Harouna Sedgo |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the role of a leader in anti-corruption fighting in Africa. It focuses on the rule of Thomas Sankara, one of the legendary figures of contemporary Africa.Using the synthetic control approach, we design a counterfactual for the actual Burkina Faso called "synthetic Burkina Faso" based on corruption before Sankara's tenure. The difference between Burkina Faso and Synthetic Burkina Faso highlights that the leadership of Thomas Sankara had a substantial effect in reducing corruption in Burkina Faso during his tenure over the period 1983-1987. This reduction effect in 1987 was as much as 70 percent of the 1982 level of corruption in the country. This result is robust to placebo tests. This finding highlights the leader's importance in shaping African countries' institutional trajectory. To fight corruption, having an exemplary leader is a cure. |
| Keywords: | Corruption; Leader; Captain Thomas Sankara; Synthetic control approach; Burkina Faso |
| JEL: | D73 B15 E02 O55 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2024-16&r= |
| By: | Schlichter, Leo |
| Abstract: | The Degrowth movement advocates a radical shift from our capitalist economic system to one based on human needs, planetary boundaries, and economic democracy. The literature, however, often neglects detailing the concrete coordination mechanisms of a Degrowth economy. This paper addresses this gap by proposing democratic economic planning as a potential solution. I delve into historical and contemporary planning debates, examining practical examples and proposals that leverage artificial intelligence and cybernetics for democratic economic planning. I argue that models such as participatory economics (Parecon) or Daniel Saros's planning model align well with Degrowth principles, forming a foundation for further exploration. Effective economic planning requires democratic participation, free information flow, and safeguards against power abuse. Still, open questions on money, trade, democratic institutions, and privacy protection require further investigation. |
| Keywords: | Degrowth, economic democracy, economic planning, participatory economics |
| JEL: | B50 O49 P11 P21 P40 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ipewps:294825&r= |
| By: | Mark Setterfield |
| Abstract: | Neoliberalism eviscerated the value-sharing ethos of the post-war Golden Age (1945-73), seeking to maintain social cohesion in civil society by 'managing the discontent of the losers'. This involved reconciling working households to the realities of the neoliberal labour market by means of coercion, distraction, and debt accumulation - the latter serving to limit the growth of consumption inequality in the face of burgeoning income inequality. The global financial crisis (GFC) and Great Recession undermined the process of household debt accumulation, creating a crisis of neoliberal accumulation. Key to the institutional renewal required to address this crisis will be managing the discontent of the losers inherited from the neoliberal era. One possibility is Authoritarian Neoliberalism, based on increasingly illiberal amplification of the 'coerce and distract' elements inherited from the Neoliberal Boom (1990-2007). The only viable alternative is Social Capitalism. This involves a renewal of social democracy that manages the discontent of the losers at its source, by creating inclusive and sustainable growth that both reduces the need and desire for illiberalism in the sphere of civil society. |
| Keywords: | Social structure of accumulation, capital-citizen accord, household debt, inequality, populism |
| JEL: | E21 B51 B52 P16 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:fmmpap:98-2024&r= |
| By: | Akabayashi, Hideo; Tanaka, Ryuichi (University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | We present new estimates of the internal rate of return to early childhood education. Utilizing the nationwide expansion of preschool education in Japan between 1960 and 1980, we initially assess the impact of preschool attendance on high school graduation and college enrollment for men. Subsequently, we compute the social rate of return to preschool attendance for men by drawing upon national wage statistics to project expected wage trajectories and referencing government documents to account for the social cost of preschools. Our findings indicate a social rate of return ranging from 5.7% to 8.1%, consistent with previous estimates in the literature. |
| Keywords: | internal rate of return, universal preschool expansion, kindergarten, nursery school |
| JEL: | I22 I28 H75 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16946&r= |
| By: | Paul, Joseph; Sawkins, John W. |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the decisions made by ministers of the Church of Scotland regarding whether to leave and join the Free Church, or remain within the establishment, at the time of the 1843 Disruption. Using a newly constructed dataset drawn from a range of hitherto unconnected sources, it models the binary, stay or leave, decision through a linear probability model. The empirical results affirm the importance of age, type of church served and geographical context in explaining the overall pattern of secession. In addition they cast doubt on theories offering explanations which elevate the role of narrow economic concerns in driving the decision; explanations focusing on the impact of loss of stipend or family circumstances. |
| Keywords: | Church, Scotland, 1843, Linear Probability Model |
| JEL: | C21 N33 N93 Z12 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hwuaef:294827&r= |
| By: | Ayyar, S.; Bolt, U.; French, E.; O’Dea, C. |
| Abstract: | Using a digitized sample of thousands of essays written by 11-year-olds in 1969, we construct an index which measures the extent to which girls’ imagined futures conform to gender norms in Britain at the time. We link this index to outcomes over the life-cycle. Conditional on a large set of age-11 covariates, a one standard deviation increase in our index is associated with a decrease in lifetime earnings of 3.5%, due to both lower wages and fewer hours worked. Half of this earnings decline is mediated by reduced educational attainment, selection into lower-paid occupations, and earlier family formation of those who conform more strongly to prevalent gender norms. Holding skills constant, girls whose essays conform less to gender norms, live in regions with higher female employment and educational attainment. This highlights that the wider environment in which girls grow up shapes gender conformity. |
| Keywords: | Gender, Children, Text Analysis |
| JEL: | J16 J13 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–05–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2422&r= |
| By: | Raphael Auer; Mathieu Pedemonte; Raphael Schoenle |
| Abstract: | Is inflation (still) a global phenomenon? We study the international co-movement of inflation based on a dynamic factor model and in a sample spanning up to 56 countries during the 1960-2023 period. Over the entire period, a first global factor explains approximately 58% of the variation in headline inflation across all countries and over 72% in OECD economies. The explanatory power of global inflation is equally high in a shorter sample spanning the time since 2000. Core inflation is also remarkably global, with 53% of its variation attributable to a first global factor. The explanatory power of a second global factor is lower, except for select emerging economies. Variables such as a broad dollar index, the US federal funds rate, and a measure of commodity prices positively correlate with the first global factor. This global factor is also correlated with US inflation during the 70s, 80s, the GFC, and COVID. However, it lags these variables during the post-COVID period. Country-level integration in global value chains accounts for a significant proportion of the share of both local headline and core inflation dynamics explained by global factors. |
| Keywords: | globalization; inflation; Phillips curve; monetary policy; global value chain; international inflation synchronization |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 F02 F41 F42 F14 F62 |
| Date: | 2024–05–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:98253&r= |
| By: | Meinhard Knoche |
| Abstract: | Die folgende Arbeit ist Teil einer umfassenden Bestandsaufnahme der Geschichte des ifo Instituts, die sich von den bis in die frühen 1940er Jahre hineinreichenden Wurzeln des Instituts bis zum Jahr 2017 erstreckt, als der Autor dieser Zeilen aus dem ifo-Vorstand in den Ruhestand wechselte. Sie entstand im Rahmen eines vom ifo Institut geförderten Projekts und in Zusammenarbeit mit dem Institut für Zeitgeschichte. Dort befasst sich Angela Müller in einer vom IfZ-Vizepräsidenten Prof. Magnus Brechtken betreuten Dissertation mit dem Werdegang Karl Maria Hettlages. Ich danke Angela Müller sehr für den offenen und konstruktiven Austausch und wünsche ihr viel Erfolg bei der Bewältigung ihres ambitionierten Projekts. Bei Markus Brechtken bedanke ich mich für wertvolle Hinweise. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ifowps:_410&r= |
| By: | Valérie Mignon; Cécile Couharde; Carl Grekou; Florian Morvillier |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the link between exchange rate misalignments and economic growth for a large sample of 170 countries over the 1973-2019 period. We rely on new cross-country data on multilateral currency misalignments and cross-quantile regressions to demonstrate that the seemingly divergent views of the Washington Consensus and the export-led growth theory on the role of currency undervaluations in promoting economic growth can be reconciled. Although any significant departures from the equilibrium exchange rate levels are found undesirable, we show that undervaluations are more likely to stimulate economic growth in developing countries. However, this positive impact is observed only up to certain thresholds of development level and currency undervaluation. Consequently, strategies in the poorest countries that systematically undervalue currencies in real terms to foster growth should be carefully tailored, as they raise the risk for these economies of switching from a positive to a less favorable growth regime, depending on both their specific wealth level and the extent of their currency undervaluation. |
| Keywords: | Cross-quantile regressions; economic growth; multilateral currency misalignments; undervaluations. |
| JEL: | F31 O47 C32 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2024-14&r= |
| By: | Jennings, Colin; Sanchez-Pages, Santiago |
| Abstract: | Why is a peace agreement acceptable at some point in time but not earlier? We argue that the commitment problem combined with the nature of rebel financing can help explain this. Crucial to our argument is that the composition of financing between donations and self-generated funds through organised crime and local governance determine the size of anticipated shifts in the future power of rebel groups. When donations are the main source of funds, shifts in rebel strength will more likely be large and be preempted through conflict by the state. When rebels obtain mainly self-generated funds, shifts in power will more likely be small and allow for peace. We apply this theory to the Northern Ireland conflict and analyse why the 1998 Belfast Agreement was credible, but the very similar failed Sunningdale Agreement in 1973 was not. Our paper contributes to the literature on the boundary between political violence and organised crime. |
| Date: | 2024–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7bp4n&r= |