|
on Business, Economic and Financial History |
|
Issue of 2024‒04‒15
thirty papers chosen by |
| By: | Jeffry Frieden; Richard S. Grossman; Daniel Lowery |
| Abstract: | We investigate how Reconstruction affected Black political participation and socio-economic advancement after the American Civil War. We use the location of federal troops and Freedmen’s Bureau offices to indicate more intensive federal enforcement of civil rights. We find greater political empowerment and socio-economic advances by Blacks where Reconstruction was more rigorously enforced and that those effects persisted at least until the early twentieth century, although these advances were weaker in cotton-plantation zones. We suggest a mechanism leading from greater Black political power to higher local property taxes, through to higher levels of Black schooling and greater Black socio-economic achievement. |
| Keywords: | reconstruction, institutions, US Civil War, economic development |
| JEL: | N31 P10 O10 O51 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10971&r=his |
| By: | Grigoriev Leonid (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University) |
| Abstract: | In the actienent worls of different tribes, languagias and slightly cultivated landscapes Empires had a role of the crude tool to forse changes: concentrations of rents, with the focus on infrastructure (roads, dumbs, canals), fortifications, cult centers and palaces. Concentration of investments went to dominationg tribe at the expence of taxes from all nations inside the states. Empires sped up the exchange of information, innovations, common languages. Critical view of empires as aggressive force led to focus on political and military role of empires and low attention economic aspects of their activity. Some coefficient of usefulness between hostile creation and destruction of empires may be of interest. Some technological and cultural developments were resulted from management and the degree of survival after collapses of empires. We distinguish the agricultural and nomadic empires, trying to show the life cycle of empires between XIII Century BC and 5 C. (Fall of Rome), before Christianity and Islam came as a factor. And we observe the process of selection of convenient periods of the past for establishing “imperial” or “contra imperial” cultural codes and historical memory. |
| Keywords: | Adam Smith, Eurasia, empire, trade, development |
| JEL: | F10 N73 N75 P33 P50 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upa:wpaper:0066&r=his |
| By: | Alain Béraud (CREST-THEMA - CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CY - CY Cergy Paris Université); Guy Numa (CSU - Colorado State University [Fort Collins]) |
| Abstract: | In a note published in the latest issue of History of Economic Ideas, James Ahiakpor rehashes previously debunked claims. After stating that our arguments were "misleading" and fantasizing about Jean-Baptiste Say's "retrogression, " Ahiakpor now claims to have uncovered "mistaken bases of [Fred Manville] Taylor's deviations from Say's own law." Using cherry-picked evidence, selective quotations, and irrelevant sources, his latest note is another desperate attempt to manipulate the historical record. Our peer-reviewed research on Say and Say's Law stands. We have engaged the totality of the textual and archival evidence, a task that Ahiakpor is still unwilling or unable to perform. An honest and comprehensive reading of Say and Taylor's original writings completely invalidate Ahiakpor's fallacious conclusions. The present essay shows that his claims have no merit. Fred Taylor did correctly analyze Say's message. |
| Keywords: | Jean-Baptiste Say, Demand, Money, Outlets, Production |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04482952&r=his |
| By: | Gan Jin; Günther G. Schulze |
| Abstract: | Can colonialism affect today’s urban outcomes? This paper examines the long-run impact of Concessions - foreign-run enclaves established in the late nineteenth century inside Chinese cities by European settlers for residence and investment purposes. They soon became the new economic hubs of their hosting cities. By using a unique dataset of geo-referenced apartment transactions and by employing a spatial regression dis-continuity approach to identify the causality, we find that apartments located inside historical Concession areas command a price premium of 17% compared to similar homes just outside of the Concession boundaries. We show that the long-run economic effect of Concessions may be explained by better access to urban facilities in these areas. |
| Keywords: | colonialism, housing price, urbanization, persistence, China |
| JEL: | N95 O18 O43 P48 R50 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10976&r=his |
| By: | Faguet, Jean-Paul; Matajira, Camilo; Sánchez, Fabio |
| Abstract: | The Spanish encomienda, a colonial forced-labour institution that lasted three centuries, killed many indigenous people and caused others to flee into nomadism. What were its long-term effects? We digitize a great deal of historical data from the mid-1500s onwards and reconstruct the Spanish conquerors’ route through Colombia using detailed topographical features to calculate their least-cost path. We show that Colombian municipalities with encomiendas in 1560 enjoy better outcomes today across multiple dimensions of development than those without: higher municipal GDP per capita, tax receipts, and educational attainment; lower infant mortality, poverty, and unsatisfied basic needs; larger populations; and superior fiscal performance and bureaucratic efficiency, but also higher inequality. Why? Two mediation exercises using data on local institutions, populations and racial composition in 1794 shows that encomiendas affected development primarily by helping build the local state. Deep historical evidence fleshes out how encomenderos founded local institutions early on in the places they settled. Places lacking encomiendas also lacked local states for 3-4 centuries. Local institutions mobilized public investment in ways that doubtless suited encomenderos, but, over time, spurred greater economic and human development. |
| Keywords: | Encomienda; Colombia; development; colonialism; extraction; state capacity; forced labour; institutions |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122257&r=his |
| By: | Andrew Garin (Carnegie Mellon University and NBER); Jonathan Rothbaum (U.S. Census Bureau) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the long-run effects of government-led construction of manufacturing plants on the regions where they were built and on individuals from those regions. Specifically, we examine publicly financed plants built in dispersed locations outside of major urban centers for security reasons during the United States’ industrial mobilization for World War II. Wartime plant construction had large and persistent impacts on local development, characterized by an expansion of relatively high-wage manufacturing employment throughout the postwar era. These benefits were shared by incumbent residents; we find men born before WWII in counties where plants were built earned $1, 200 (in 2020 dollars) or 2.5 percent more per year in adulthood relative to those born in counterfactual comparison regions, with larger benefits accruing to children of lower-income parents. The balance of evidence suggests that these individuals benefited primarily from the local expansion of higher-wage jobs to which they had access as adults, rather than because of developmental effects from exposure to better environments during childhood. |
| Keywords: | public investment, industrial mobilization, counties, manufacturing, local development, long-run earnings, intergenerational effects, WWII |
| JEL: | J31 J62 H56 R11 R53 O25 N42 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:24-399&r=his |
| By: | Lise Arena (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Richard Arena (UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | This article seeks to analyse the circumstances and the nature of the emergence of management research from economic analysis in the 1950s in Britain and France. It also looks at the more recent shifts in the boundaries between these two social sciences; and to understand their analytical and methodological significance by taking into account the different historical and cultural contexts within which they were embedded. |
| Keywords: | Microeconomics, Management research, Intellectual traditions, Methodology |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04489596&r=his |
| By: | Dincecco, Mark (University of Michigan); Fenske, James (University of Warwick); Gupta, Bishnupriya (University of Warwick); Menon, Anil (University of California, Merced) |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between exposure to historical conflict involving heavy weaponry and male-favoring gender norms. We argue that the physical nature of such conflict produced cultural norms favoring males and male offspring. We focus on spatial variation in gender norms across India, a dynamic developing economy in which gender inequality persists. We show robust evidence that areas with high exposure to pre-colonial conflict are significantly more likely to exhibit male-favoring gender norms as measured by male-biased sex ratios and crimes against women. We document how conflict-related gender norms have been transmitted over time via male-favoring folkloric traditions, the gender identity of temple gods, and male-biased marriage practices, and have been transmitted across space by migrants originally from areas with high conflict exposure. |
| Keywords: | War, Gender Norms, Cultural Beliefs, Development, India, History JEL Classification: J16, N45, 011, P46, Z13 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:704&r=his |
| By: | Heikkuri, Suvi (Unit for Economic History, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University) |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the changing skill composition during industrialization in Sweden using population censuses and HISCO/HISCLASS scheme. The results reveal a general shift from unskilled to more-skilled occupations, though the trend differs by gender and sector. First, the skill upgrading was more pronounced for women, who left agriculture for better job opportunities elsewhere. Second, within manufacturing, there was a shift from medium-skilled to low- and unskilled occupations, consistent with the workshop-to-factory shift. However, this trend is mirrored by skill upgrading within services, where the expansion of trade and transport introduced new more-skilled jobs. Finally, I show that skill distribution in Sweden exhibited similar trends to the United States, though with greater deskilling and slower increase in white-collar employment. |
| Keywords: | Industrialization; Technological change; Structural change; Occupational structure; Skills; Sweden |
| JEL: | J21 J22 N33 N34 |
| Date: | 2024–03–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunhis:0039&r=his |
| By: | Tinasti, Khalid; Zhang, Yong-An |
| Abstract: | The history, policies and practice of drug control in Asia have been historically multifaceted, particularly concerning substances like opium, cannabis, and various indigenous psychoactive plants. The opium trade, notably in the 19th and early 20th centuries, significantly impacted Asian societies, triggering conflicts, influencing international relations, and altering the socio-economic fabric. Yet, the history of drug control across different parts of Asia reflects a complex interplay of factors and a stark regional diversity. This special issue serves as a platform for interdisciplinary studies that link Asian drug trafficking with collaborative legal responses across the region. The primary objective is to compile an overview of the history, current practices, and policies addressing drug production, trafficking, and usage in a continent that houses 60% of the global population. This is done by sampling articles that encompass the large geographical scope of Asia, from Northeast Asia to the Middle East. The special issue focuses on three key dimensions of drug control that affect Asian countries: Historical landmarks, including milestones of drug control policy developments at the national level, which shaped the international regime over the last two centuries; public health and history of local responses with the analysis of the burden of infectious diseases, and the state of access to controlled essential medicines; and, criminal justice and historical landmarks of its development through legal responses and punishments. |
| Keywords: | history; Asia; drug control; China; Lebanon; Azerbaijan; Phillipines |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2024–02–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122170&r=his |
| By: | Alvaredo, Facundo; Bourguignon, François; Ferreira, Francisco H. G.; Lustig, Nora |
| Abstract: | Drawing on a comprehensive compilation of quantile shares and inequality measures for 34 countries, including over 5, 600 estimated Gini coefficient, we review the measurement of income inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean over the last seven decades. Although the evidence from the first quarter century roughly until the 1970s is too fragmentary and difficult to compare, clearer patterns emerge for last fifty years. The central feature of these patterns is a broad inverted U curve, with inequality rising in most countries prior to the 1990s, and falling during the early 21st Century, at least until the mid-2010s, when trends appear to diverge across countries. This broad pattern is modified by country specificities, with considerable variation in timing and magnitude. Whereas this broad picture emerges for income inequality dynamics, there is much more uncertainty about the exact levels of inequality in the region. The uncertainty arises from the disparity in estimates for the same country/year combinations, depending on whether they come from household surveys exclusively; from some combination of surveys and administrative tax data; and on whether they attempt to scale income aggregates to achieve consistency with National Accounts estimates. Since no single method is fully convincing at present, we are left with (often wide) ranges, or bands, of inequality as our best summaries of inequality levels. Reassuringly, however, the dynamic patterns are generally robust across the bands. |
| Keywords: | Inequality;Equality;measurement;Household Survey;Latin America and the Caribbean;Equality Indicator;Income Equality;taxation;National Account |
| JEL: | D31 D63 O54 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13157&r=his |
| By: | Raphaël Orange-Leroy (AGORA - EA 7392 - Laboratoire AGORA - CY - CY Cergy Paris Université, IDHES - Institutions et Dynamiques Historiques de l'Économie et de la Société - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENS Paris Saclay - Ecole Normale Supérieure Paris-Saclay, CRHIA - Centre de recherches en histoire internationale et Atlantique - UR 1163 - ULR - La Rochelle Université - Nantes Univ - UFR HHAA - Nantes Université - UFR Histoire, Histoire de l'Art et Archéologie - Nantes Université - pôle Humanités - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the group of 77 developing countries (G77) participated in the 1960s international monetary negotiations. This involvement was based on the agenda built by a group of experts gathered by UNCTAD in 1965. The group was composed of academic and practitioner economists from all over the world, including some famous names, such as Richard Kahn, Tibor Scitovsky, and Trevor Swan, as well as less-known though influential figures, including I. G. Patel, Gamani Corea, and Jorge Gonzalez del Valle. UNCTAD served as an "institutional infrastructure" (Gasper 2011) that allowed for the emergence of new analyses and narratives on the interests of developing countries in the international monetary reform that was being discussed among the wealthy countries of the Group of Ten (G10). The report of the experts proved influential. At the intellectual level, it convinced IMF economists, including Jacques Polak, to change their frame of analysis for a more global vision. At the political level, it was endorsed by G77 and participated in the G10 agreement for universal distribution of the newly created Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). Based on international organizations' archives, this paper, therefore, challenges the invisibilization process of the G10 over G77 ideas. Multilateral negotiations also offer a "keyhole" to study new economist figures from developing countries. Thanks to prosopographic methodology, this paper attempts to follow the national and international connections of the experts as a way to open new research areas for the history of economics. |
| Keywords: | Diplomatic History, Economic History, International Relations, History of Political Economy, United Nations, UNCTAD, IMF, World Bank, G77, G10, G24, Global South, Periphery, Third World, Money, Finance, Development, Development Finance, Special Drawing Rights, SDRs, economists, 1960s, 1970s |
| Date: | 2023–06–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04498357&r=his |
| By: | Betancourt, Rebeca Gómez |
| Abstract: | Review of “A Herstory of Economics” by Edith Kuiper. |
| Date: | 2024–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:yc5nb&r=his |
| By: | Sinding Bentzen, Jeanet (University of Copenhagen, CAGE, CEPR); Boberg-Fazli´c, Nina (TU Dortmund University, CEPR); Sharp, Paul (University of Southern Denmark, CAGE, CEPR); Volmar Skovsgaard, Christian (University of Southern Denmark); Vedel, Christian (University of Southern Denmark) |
| Abstract: | The cultural assimilation of immigrants into the host society is often equated with prospects for economic success, with religion seen as a potential barrier. We investigate the role of ethnic enclaves and churches for the assimilation of Danish Americans using a difference-in-differences setting. Following the ordination of a divisive religious figure in 1883, this otherwise small and homogeneous group split into rival Lutheran revivalist camps - so-called “Happy†and “Holy†Danes. The former sought the preservation of Danish culture and tradition, while the latter encouraged assimilation. We use data from the US census and Danish American church and newspaper archives, and find that Danish Americans living in a county with a “Happy†church chose more Danish names for their children. Newspapers read by “Holy Danes†saw a more rapid Anglicization of the language used. Religious beliefs thus facilitated assimilation. Divergence in behaviour only emerged following the religious division. |
| Keywords: | Assimilation, Danish Americans, enclaves, immigration, religion JEL Classification: F22, J61, N31, N32 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:703&r=his |
| By: | Stelios Michalopoulos; Christopher Rauh |
| Abstract: | Why are certain movies more successful in some markets than others? Are the entertainment products we consume reflective of our core values and beliefs? These questions drive our investigation into the relationship between a society’s oral tradition and the financial success of films. We combine a unique catalog of local tales, myths, and legends around the world with data on international movie screenings and revenues. First, we quantify the similarity between movies’ plots and traditional motifs employing machine learning techniques. Comparing the same movie across different markets, we establish that films that resonate more with local folklore systematically accrue higher revenue and are more likely to be screened. Second, we document analogous patterns within the US. Google Trends data reveal a pronounced interest in markets where ancestral narratives align more closely with a movie’s theme. Third, we delve into the explicit values transmitted by films, concentrating on the depiction of risk and gender roles. Films that promote risk-taking sell more in entrepreneurial societies today, rooted in traditions where characters pursue dangerous tasks successfully. Films portraying women in stereotypical roles continue to find a robust audience in societies with similar gender stereotypes in their folklore and where women today continue being relegated to subordinate positions. These findings underscore the enduring influence of traditional storytelling on entertainment patterns in the 21st century, highlighting a profound connection between movie consumption and deeply ingrained cultural narratives and values. |
| JEL: | N0 O10 P0 Z00 Z1 Z10 Z11 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32220&r=his |
| By: | Braxton, John Carter (University of Wisconsin-Madison); Chikhale, Nisha (University of Wisconsin-Madison); Herkenhoff, Kyle (University of Minnesota); Phillips, Gordon (Dartmouth College) |
| Abstract: | We combine the Decennial Census, credit reports, and administrative earnings to create the first panel dataset linking parent's credit access to the labor market outcomes of children in the U.S.We find that a 10% increase in parent's unused revolving credit during their children's adolescence (13 to 18 years old) is associated with 0.28% to 0.37% greater labor earnings of their children during early adulthood (25 to 30 years old). Using these empirical elasticities, we estimate a dynastic, defaultable debt model to examine how the democratization of credit since the 1970s – modeled as both greater credit limits and more lenient bankruptcy – affected intergenerational mobility. Surprisingly, we find that the democratization of credit led to less intergenerational mobility and greater inequality. Two offsetting forces underlie this result: (1) greater credit limits raise mobility by facilitating borrowing and investment among low-income households; (2) however, more lenient bankruptcy policy lowers mobility since low-income households dissave, hit their constraints more often, and reduce investments in their children. Quantitatively, the democratization of credit is dominated by more lenient bankruptcy policy and so mobility declines between the 1970s and 2000s. |
| Keywords: | credit limits, bankruptcy, intergenerational mobility |
| JEL: | D14 E21 E24 G51 J62 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16826&r=his |
| By: | Brunori, Paolo; Ferreira, Francisco H. G.; Neidhöfer, Guido |
| Abstract: | How strong is the transmission of socio-economic status across generations in Latin America? To answer this question, we first review the empirical literature on intergenerational mobility and inequality of opportunity for the region, summarizing results for both income and educational outcomes. We find that, whereas the income mobility literature is hampered by a paucity of representative datasets containing linked information on parents and children, the inequality of opportunity approach which relies on other inherited and pre-determined circumstance variables has suffered from arbitrariness in the choice of population partitions. Two new data-driven approaches one aligned with the ex-ante and the other with the ex-post conception of inequality of opportunity are introduced to address this shortcoming. They yield a set of new inequality of opportunity estimates for twenty-seven surveys covering nine Latin American countries over various years between 2000 and 2015. In most cases, more than half of the current generations inequality is inherited from the past with a range between 44% and 63%. We argue that on balance, given the parsimony of the population partitions, these are still likely to be underestimates. |
| Keywords: | Equality of Opportunity;Intergenerational mobility;Latin America |
| JEL: | D31 I39 J62 O15 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13155&r=his |
| By: | Leonard, Robert |
| Abstract: | Review of “La science est un jeu: La théorie des jeux dans la France des années 1950” by Tarik Tazdaït. |
| Date: | 2024–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:3bd4r&r=his |
| By: | Louadi, Mohamed (Institut Supérieur de Gestion) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we delve into the historical evolution of data as a fundamental element in communication and knowledge transmission. The paper traces the stages of knowledge dissemination from oral traditions to the digital era, highlighting the significance of languages and cultural diversity in this progression. It also explores the impact of digital technologies on memory, communication, and cultural preservation, emphasizing the need for promoting a culture of the digital (rather than a digital culture) in Africa and beyond. Additionally, it discusses the challenges and opportunities presented by data biases in AI development, underscoring the importance of creating diverse datasets for equitable representation. We advocate for investing in data as a crucial raw material for fostering digital literacy, economic development, and, above all, cultural preservation in the digital age. |
| Date: | 2024–03–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:africa:xqtcs&r=his |
| By: | Basile Clerc |
| Abstract: | Why do some economists support price controls in the face of inflation during peacetime? Our thesis is that, in the history of economic thought, understanding the role of profits in inflationary dynamics is the crucial variable. To demonstrate this, we investigate the extensive literature on incomes policy, insofar as much of the thinking on macroeconomic price controls in peacetime is part of this literature. This corpus is crossed by a major schism: some advocate price and wage controls while others limit control to wages alone. We show that the defense of price controls is always based on the thesis that profits play an autonomous role in inflationary dynamics. Conversely, the advocates of an incomes policy reduced to wage controls see margins as mere transmission belts for excessive wage increases into prices. Price controls are thus rejected ex ante, even before any criticism of the consequences of their application. |
| Keywords: | Price controls - Wage controls - Incomes policy - Inflation - Unemployment |
| JEL: | B22 E64 E12 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2024-11&r=his |
| By: | Richard Upward; Peter Wright |
| Abstract: | We provide new evidence on the effects of economic shocks on political support, voting behaviour and political opinions over the last 25 years. We exploit a sudden, large and long-lasting shock in the form of job loss and trace out its impact on individual political outcomes for up to 10 years after the event. The availability of detailed information on households before and after the job loss event allows us to reweight a comparison group to closely mimic the job losers in terms of their observable characteristics, pre-existing political support and voting behaviour. We find consistent, long-lasting but quantitatively small effects on support and votes for the incumbent party, and short-lived effects on political engagement. We find limited impact on the support for fringe or populist parties. In the context of Brexit, opposition to the EU was much higher amongst those who lost their jobs, but this was largely due to pre-existing differences which were not exacerbated by the job loss event itself. |
| Keywords: | job loss; voting; political support |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notnic:2023-17&r=his |
| By: | Giesing, Yvonne (Ifo Institute for Economic Research); Kauder, Björn (CESifo); Mergele, Lukas (Ifo Institute for Economic Research); Potrafke, Niklas (University of Konstanz); Poutvaara, Panu (University of Munich) |
| Abstract: | We examine how cultural norms shape attitudes toward immigration. Our causal identification relies on comparing students who moved across the East-West border after German reunification with students who moved within former East Germany. Students who moved from East to West became more positive toward immigration. Results are confirmed among students whose move was plausibly exogenous due to national study place allocation mechanisms. Evidence supports horizontal transmission as the difference between East-West movers and East-East movers increases over time and is driven by East German students who often interacted with fellow students. Effects are stronger in less xenophobic West German regions. |
| Keywords: | cultural transmission, migration, attitudes toward immigration, German division and unification, political socialization |
| JEL: | D72 D91 J15 J20 P20 P51 Z10 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16833&r=his |
| By: | Park, Byungyul (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | In 2023, Korea and India celebrated a historic milestone, commemorating the 50th anniversary of their formal diplomatic relationship. The two nations officially established diplomatic ties on November 21, 1973, but it was much later that bilateral trade and investment began to thrive. In the late 1990s, India shifted its focus to Korea’s automobile and IT industries, and several Korean industrial giants, including Hyundai Motor, LG, and Samsung Electronics, entered India. In 2009, the two countries signed the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which marked the beginning of what would become a robust trade relationship. Six years later, both countries agreed to deepen ties, and formed a Special Strategic Partnership, using the CEPA as a foundation for enhanced cooperation. India liberalized its economy in 1991, which paved the way for rapid economic growth to follow. Throughout the 2000s, Indian GDP expanded by an average of seven percent annually. In 2021, it emerged as the world’s sixth-largest economy, with a nominal GDP of approximately USD 3.14 trillion. This growth is set to continue unabated; ratings agency S&P Global projects that the Indian economy will expand by an annual average of 6.3 percent throughout the 2020s, eventually eclipsing Japan and Germany and propelling it to third place globally. Against a backdrop of declining Korean exports to China and the ASEAN member states, Korea is faced with the challenging of diversifying its export markets. This paper explores pathways for cooperation with India with a view toward establishing India as a major export partner. |
| Keywords: | India; Korea; India-Korea trade; exports; trade; Samsung; LG; Hyundai; LG; Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement; CEPA; Special Strategic Partnership; export diversification; Korea; KIET |
| JEL: | F12 F13 F23 F43 F53 |
| Date: | 2024–02–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:2024_003&r=his |
| By: | Etienne Le Rossignol; Sara Lowes; Eduardo Montero |
| Abstract: | We study a fundamental institution in many societies: the structure of property rights over land. Across societies, communal land rights have been more common than private land rights. We test the hypothesis that longer fallow requirements – the time needed to leave land uncultivated to restore fertility – led to a higher prevalence of communal property rights. Longer fallow requirements generate higher protection costs and therefore make communal rights more beneficial. We construct an ecological measure of the optimal fallow length for the most suitable staple crop across grid cells based on soil type, temperature, and climate. We find that places where land needs to be fallowed for longer periods are more likely to have communal property rights both historically and presently. We then examine the implications for efforts to title land. We find that World Bank land titling interventions are less effective in places with longer fallow requirements, suggesting a mismatch between development policy and underlying institutions. Finally, we examine implications for income inequality and conflict. We find that longer fallow requirements are associated with less inequality, less conflict, and greater resilience to negative shocks. Our results highlight the origins of property rights structures and how communal property rights interact with development policies. |
| JEL: | O43 P14 Q15 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32226&r=his |
| By: | Kenneth G. Stewart (Department of Economics, University of Victoria) |
| Abstract: | The quantity theory of money hypothesizes that the price level is determined through the equilibration of money supply and demand. Predicated on this causal structure, a single-equation error correction model decomposes from a larger vector autoregressive system so as to make available bounds tests for a levels relationship that are robust to the univariate integration properties of the variables. This model is estimated using three alternative money stock measures and three standard specifications for money demand. The hypothesis of a long run relationship between the levels of money, prices, and income is generally supported by a century of U.S.\ data. Across this range of models and aggregates, the classic quantity theory proposition of one-for-one associations between prices and each of money and income is best satisfied when M2 is the monetary aggregate. Based on a preferred model in which money demand is loglinear in the rate of interest, and with structural change treated by indicator saturation, the welfare cost of inflation is estimated to have ranged between 0.362 and 1.326 percent of national income at interest rates experienced by the United States during the past century. |
| Keywords: | quantity theory of money, money demand, bounds tests, indicator saturation, welfare cost of inflation |
| Date: | 2023–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vic:vicddp:2023&r=his |
| By: | Bertsch, Christoph (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Hull, Isaiah (BI Norwegian Business School; CogniFrame); Lumsdaine, Robin L. (Kogod School of Business, American University; Erasmus University Rotterdam; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Tinbergen Institute; Center for Financial Stability); Zhang, Xin (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a novel database of text features extracted from the speeches of 53 central banks from 1996 to 2023 using state-of-the-art NLP methods. We establish four facts: (1) central banks with floating and pegged exchange rates communicate differently, and these differences are particularly pronounced in discussions about exchange rates and the dollar, (2) communication spillovers from the Federal Reserve are prominent in exchange rate and dollar-related topics for dollar peggers and in hawkish sentiment for others, (3) central banks engage in FX intervention guidance, and (4) more transparent institutions are less responsive to political pressure in their communication. |
| Keywords: | Exchange Rates; Natural Language Processing (NLP); International Spillovers; Monetary Policy |
| JEL: | C55 E42 E50 F31 F42 |
| Date: | 2024–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0432&r=his |
| By: | Agnieszka Fihel (IC Migrations - Institut Convergences Migrations [Aubervilliers], UW - University of Warsaw); Paweł Kaczmarczyk (UW - University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | In the period of post-communist transition, Central Europe witnessed complex and multifaceted mobility processes; permanent outmigration, of an ethnic or labour-related nature, coexisted with temporary, seasonal, or cross-border movements and an increasing influx of foreigners. To study these complex processes, we have chosen to apply a holistic and comprehensive approach, rather than limit conceptual considerations to one theory of migration determinants. We focus on eleven post-communist countries that joined the European Union (EU-11) and on the period extending from around 1989, covering the EU's eastward enlargement, to the present. The aim of this study is twofold: first, we propose a general conceptual framework, based on the aspirations/capabilities approach, to present the main determinants of emigration from this part of the European continent. Second, in relation to each determinant, we formulate research questions postulated by selected theories of international migration and present the evidence, based on existing empirical studies, that addresses these questions. The paper contributes to the literature by providing a broad interpretation of post-transition mobility and pointing to commonly overlooked explanatory factors. We highlight the importance of economic factors that have enhanced and directed the outward migration from the EU-11 to selected EU member states and selected economic sectors; in particular, as regards capabilities, these factors include the lifting of labour market restrictions, high demand in the secondary sector of labour markets, and the roles of migration networks and the migration industry. Emphasis is also placed on aspirational factors, such as labour market failures and the substantial aspirational gap resulting from improvements in high educational attainment in the countries of origin. The aspirations/capabilities approach serves well as a general framework of migration determinants, but its explanatory power is enhanced by reference to other, more specific theories of migration. We show that a combination of the complementary approaches provides a more refined and in-depth picture of migration from the region. * This article belongs to a special issue on "Demographic Developments in Eastern and Western Europe Before and After the Transformation of Socialist Countries". |
| Keywords: | Migration theories, Migration determinants, Post-communist transition, Central Europe, European Union |
| Date: | 2023–10–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04488193&r=his |
| By: | Linda S. Goldberg |
| Abstract: | A discussion of the special role of the U.S dollar. |
| Keywords: | dollar; U.S. Dollar; currency; monetary systems |
| Date: | 2024–03–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsp:97933&r=his |
| By: | Grenet, Julien (Paris School of Economics); Grönqvist, Hans (Department of Economics and Statistics); Niknami, Susan (Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | Electronic monitoring (EM) has emerged as a popular tool for curbing the growth of large prison populations. Evidence on the causal effects of EM on criminal recidivism is, however, limited and it is unclear how this alternative to incarceration affects the labor supply of offenders and the outcomes of their family members. We study the countrywide expansion of EM in Sweden in 1997 wherein offenders sentenced to up to three months in prison were granted the option to substitute incarceration with EM. Our difference-in-differences estimates, which compare the change in the prison inflow rate of treated offenders to that of non-treated offenders with slightly longer sentences, show that the reform significantly decreased the number of incarcerations. Our main finding is that EM not only lowers criminal recidivism but also increases labor supply. Additionally, EM improves the educational attainment and early-life earnings of the children whose parents were exposed to the reform. The primary mechanisms through which EM operates appear to involve the preservation of offenders’ ties to the labor market, by reducing the barriers to both finding a job and changing employers. Our calculations suggest that the social benefits stemming from EM are about seven times larger than the fiscal savings associated with reduced prison expenditures, implying that the welfare gains from EM could be much greater than previously acknowledged. |
| Keywords: | Electronic monitoring; Incarceration; Labor supply; Crime; Spillovers |
| JEL: | K42 |
| Date: | 2024–02–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vxesta:2024_002&r=his |
| By: | Ravi Kanbur (Cornell University) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows the power of applying Shannon’s (1948) information theory perspective to inequality measurement by considering the thought experiment of drawing a dollar at random from an income distribution and asking who the dollar came from. The surprise at being told who the dollar came from, and the task of designing a set of questions with yes/no answers which will get us to the person, are two sides of the same coin but with interesting interpretations. The Theil index of inequality, which Theil (1967) himself derived with reference to information theory and entropy but did not then explore further, is shown to have interpretations beyond its simple Daltonian properties such as satisfying the principle of transfers or being sub-group decomposable. It can be interpreted as a statistical test of the hypothesis of fairness, and as a quantitative measure of the difficulty of achieving Rawls’s (1971) original position behind the veil of ignorance. |
| Keywords: | Information Theory, Inequality, Veil of Ignorance |
| JEL: | D31 D63 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2024-669&r=his |