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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2024‒03‒25
39 papers chosen by |
| By: | Ghislain Deleplace (LED - Laboratoire d'Economie Dionysien - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis) |
| Abstract: | The aim of my contribution is at analysing the impact of a large-scale war of long duration on the monetary system and monetary thought. The case is that of England during and in the aftermath of the Revolutionary and Napoleonic wars with France (1793-1815). These wars provoked a major shock in the English monetary system: the Bank of England note was made inconvertible during more than twenty years and in 1813 the pound sterling had depreciated by one-third in terms of gold. After Waterloo, it took the pound four years to regain its value in gold, in the midst of a severe economic depression. However, the pre-war monetary system was resumed in 1821: the quarter-of-a-century parenthesis was simply closed. This return to "money as usual" was not for want of intense debates: it was the time of the "Bullionist Controversy" featuring among others Henry Thornton and David Ricardo. This case thus leads to a rather pessimistic conclusion: even a major shock like a long-lasting war seems to have no significant impact on either the monetary system or monetary thought. My contribution intends to account for this paradox. Publication: Deleplace, G. (2024 a), "Storm in a Teacup? The Impact of War on the English Monetary System and Thought (1797-1821), " in Marcuzzo, M. C. and Rosselli, A. (eds.), Money in Times of Crisis. Pre-Classical, Classical and Contemporary Theories, Roma: Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei Proceedings, à paraître. |
| Keywords: | Napoleonic wars, English monetary system, Ricardo, Thornton |
| Date: | 2022–12–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04429477&r=his |
| By: | Marcelo Magalhães Godoy (UFMG); Mario Marcos Sampaio Rodarte (UFMG); Clotilde Andrade Paiva (UFMG) |
| Abstract: | The historical formation of Minas Gerais stands out for its structural heterogeneity as its most important axis, with indissociable diversity that arose in the colonial period, which consolidated in the imperial period and turned into inequality in the republic. In the XVIII century, the gold economy translated to polarization that transcended the capitancy space, promoting the first process of macro regional integration of the country and propelled the most expressive migrational process and population growth of the Colony. In the XIX century, the biggest regional slave system of the Império was structured in Minas Gerais, the elevated populational growth rates were sustained and there was a great expansion of the agricole frontier in all the geographic directions of the province. In the XX century and in the beginning of the XXI century, a conjecture of changes atrophied the transformations that, since the second the second half of the XIX century, converged to the transition to a advanced economic system, and conducted Minas Gerais to a peripheral position in the inter-regional division of work and the biggest reservoir of immigration population of Brazil, as well as fracturing the territory of the state following multiple external polarizations that overlapped to the belo-horizontino pole. In the synthesised terms of timeline, it is proposed periodization in the prevalence of three regional economic systems and two periods of transition, that justified the dynamic of the economic and demographic growth of Minas Gerais. |
| Keywords: | Minas Gerais; centuries XVIII to XXI; regional economic models; diversity and inequality; slave system regional formation; peripheral integration in the peripheral capitalism; unequal economic growth. |
| JEL: | N16 N26 N36 N46 N56 N76 N96 R23 R58 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td667&r=his |
| By: | Seltzer, Andrew J.; Wadsworth, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | The growth of public transport networks in the late-nineteenth and early-twentieth centuries had profound effects on commuting in the industrialized world, yet the consequences for labor markets during this important period of historical development remains largely unstudied. This paper draws on a unique dataset combining individual commuting and wage information for working-class residents of London, circa 1930, to analyze, for the first time, the nature of and returns to commuting shortly after when networks were first built. A sizeable majority of working-class Londoners worked within a short walk of their residence in 1890. By 1930, over 70 percent commuted at least one kilometer. Commuting allowed workers to search for jobs over a wider geographic area and across a larger number of potential employers. This, in turn, potentially increased workers’ bargaining power and improved employer-employee matching. We show that wage returns to commuting were on the order of 1.5–3.5 percent per kilometer travelled. Access to public transport increased both the probability of commuting and distance commuted but had little or no direct effect on the probability of being employed or on earnings. We argue that these results are consistent with a search and matching framework; commuting led to workers finding jobs more suited to their skills and to better matches with employers. We also provide descriptive evidence from contemporary sources to describe the impact of commuting on improving quality of life by reducing urban crowding. |
| Keywords: | commuting; labor markets; earnings; London |
| JEL: | N94 R40 N34 J31 N73 |
| Date: | 2023–09–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120895&r=his |
| By: | Nelu Dorinel Popa (Dimitrie Cantemir University of Targu Mures, Romania) |
| Abstract: | Forensic science owes its origins to the people who developed the principles and techniques needed to identify and compare physical evidenceas, well as those who recognized the need to consolidate these principles into a coherent scientific discipline. Evidence of forensic science dates back to antiquity, but it was not until the 19th century that science was rigorously applied to criminal cases through advances in the way criminal cases were handled, which improved the validity of the conclusions drawn from investigations by the judicial authorities. Many steps have also been taken to organize specialist areas within police departments, including forensic science. Furthermore, forensic science has literary roots, as evidenced by the forensic novels written by famous authors, which were based on the methods, techniques and tactics used in forensic science. This article contains a brief analysis of some of the key moments and doctrinal precedents in the history of forensic science, seen in the evolution of its subfields. Such insights aim to provide readers with a deeper understanding of the current state and trends of this science. |
| Keywords: | forensic science, forensic medicine, genetics, dactyloscopy, ballistics, forensic novel, forensic laboratory |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0290&r=his |
| By: | S. Pridiksha (Corresponding Author, Madras School of Economics (MSE), Chennai); T. Archana (MSE) |
| Abstract: | In the late 19th century, with growing criticism of the classical school of economics of ignorance of microeconomics, Leon Walras, one of the pioneers of the 1871 Marginalist Revolution, founded the Lausanne school of economics (Ecole de Lausanne). With an emphasis on mathematics, this school attributes all economic activity to the choices and actions of individuals. The central feature of the school is the concise formal description of ideas with mathematical notation which was lacking in classical economy. Lausanne school economists such as Leon Walras, Vilfredo Pareto, and others formulated and improved principles and theories such as general equilibrium theory, Pareto optimality, the 80-20 rule, the circulation of elites, ordinal utility and so on. The paper critically examines these ideas and their evolution. This paper explains the general equilibrium theory developed by Walras, breaking through the misconceptions revolving around unrealistic assumptions. With the focus on welfare economics, the principles of Pareto of Lausanne school had profoundly impacted public policy, the highlights and challenges of this impact is analysed. The aim of reviving Walras’s ideas from enigma led to further development in economics by Irving Fischer, Cassel, Wicksell. Paretian “taste and obstacles” approach was also advanced by Slutsky and W.E.Johnson. The abandonment of walras’s theories is the crucial cause of contemporary financial crisis , thus, Lausanne tradition is alive, kicking and highly relevant in the contemporary world. |
| Keywords: | Economic thought, Neoclassical, Leon Walras, Vilfredo Pareto, Wicksell, Cassel |
| JEL: | B3 B31 B16 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mad:wpaper:2023-249&r=his |
| By: | Kabiri, Ali; James, Harold; Landon-Lane, John; Tuckett, David; Nyman, Rickard |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of sentiment in the US economy from 1920 to 1934 using digitised articles from The Wall Street Journal. We derive a monthly sentiment index and use a 10-variable vector error correction model to identify sentiment shocks that are orthogonal to fundamentals. We show the timing and strength of these shocks and their resultant effects on the economy using historical decompositions. Intermittent impacts of up to 15 per cent on industrial production, 10 per cent on the S&P 500 and bank loans, and 37 basis points for the credit risk spread suggest a large role for sentiment. |
| Keywords: | algorithmic text analysis; business sentiment; Great Depression; US interwar economy; EP/P016847/1; ESRC-NIESR Rebuilding Macroeconomics network |
| JEL: | N12 N22 E32 D89 |
| Date: | 2023–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:114597&r=his |
| By: | Gimello-Mesplomb, Frédéric (Avignon University) |
| Abstract: | This article explores the cultural and social impact of exploitation films set in New York during the 1970s and 1980s. To conduct this study, we focused on a sub-database of 75 films made in and about New York between the 1970s and 2000s, all identified in the IMDB and Rottentomatoes databases. We extracted the content and examined the themes mentioned in the scripts and synopses, including justice; corruption; social isolation; social stratification such as race, ethnicity, class and gender; and the city's transformation. This article discusses how these films reflect the social tensions and sociological changes of the time and how they use New York as a symbol of existential struggles and identity crises. Additionally, we examine how legislation and social change affected New York's exploitation cinema and its reception. |
| Date: | 2024–02–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:6p5me&r=his |
| By: | Luigi Minale (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Rudi Rocha (São Paulo School of Business Administration, Getulio Vargas Foundation); Bruno Vigna (BNDES) |
| Abstract: | The article investigates the long-term economic effects of immigrant diversity. Focusing on the large immigration wave experienced by Brazil at the turn of the twentieth century, we ask whether municipalities in the State of São Paulo that received a population of immigrants characterized by a more diverse mix of origin countries ended up having better long-term economic outcomes. To identify causal effects, we leverage on unique historical individual-level data in immigrants arriving in São Paulo between 1880 and 1920, and develop an instrumental variable strategy that combines time variation in the composition of immigrants arriving from overseas with the timing of the railway network expansion in the state. We find that a one standard deviation increase in accumulated immigrant diversity in 1920 is associated with a 7-8% higher income per capita in 2000. This effect is economically relevant and robust to various identification tests. Furthermore, when exploring the mechanisms through which immigrant diversity affected long-term development, we document that municipalities that hosted more a more diverse pool of immigrants experienced (i) larger proportions of employment in manufacturing and services as well as greater occupational diversity within manufacturing in the long-term; (ii) higher investment in public goods, as measured by municipal spending on education; (iii) and higher education outputs in the long-run. |
| Keywords: | birthplace diversity, immigration, long-term development |
| JEL: | C36 N36 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2408&r=his |
| By: | Michael Fritsch; Maria Greve; Michael Wyrwich |
| Abstract: | The unification of the East and West German states in 1990 initiated the integration of two distinct innovation systems. In this process, the poorly functioning socialist system of East Germany adopted the formal institutions and organization of West Germany, a western-style market economy. We investigate the effect of this integration on patenting activity in the short, medium and long run by applying a difference-in-difference approach. The most important and remarkable finding is that the gap between East and West Germany widened considerably over time. This divergence in innovation activity suggests that current East-West differences may be indirectly rooted in this socialist legacy and the sudden shock transformation that occurred upon reunification. We also find that the similarity of the technology profile of the East and West German innovation systems is crucial to understand the divergence. So, East German innovation activity fell behind especially in technologies where both East and West Germany were specialized in before re-unification. The same applies to technologies where only West Germany was specialized in. Our findings indicate that integrating the two innovation systems mainly benefited the West. |
| Keywords: | innovation, socialism, transformation, Germany |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:use:tkiwps:2302&r=his |
| By: | Ionut Ciutacu (Dimitrie Cantemir Christian University of Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The legal figure of the possession was born in the process of exploiting the lands in the ager publicus. In very ancient times, the patricians were shepherds and farmers. As the founders of Rome, they had access to the exploitation of the lands of the state. They often sublet part of these lands to their clients, who, at some point, refused to return the lands to them and endangered the rule exercised by the patres. Rome was a patrician state and that is why the fast legal protection of possessiones was required. Therefore, the imperium of the magistrates was resorted to and the interdicts of the possessors were created. Later, against the background of the development of legal ideas and the evolution of society, the effects of the interdicta were extended to other situations and contributed to the improvement of the legal protection of private property rights. |
| Keywords: | possessiones, animus, corpus, interdicta |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0291&r=his |
| By: | Matthias Flückiger; Mario Larch; Markus Ludwig; Luigi Pascali |
| Abstract: | In the latter half of the fourth millennium BC, our ancestors witnessed a remarkable transformation, progressing from simple agrarian villages to complex urban civilizations. In regions as far apart as the Nile Valley, Mesopotamia, Central Asia, and the Indus Valley, the first states appeared together with writing, cities with populations exceeding 10, 000, and unprecedented socio-economic inequalities. The cause of this “Urban Revolution” remains unclear. We present new empirical evidence suggesting that the discovery of bronze and the ensuing long-distance trade played a crucial role. Using novel panel data and 2SLS techniques, we demonstrate that trade corridors linking metal mines to fertile lands were more likely to experience the Urban Revolution. We propose that transit bottlenecks facilitated the emergence of a new taxing elite. We formally test this appropriability theory and provide several case studies in support. |
| Keywords: | urban civilizations, long-distance trade, metal trade, transit bottlenecks |
| JEL: | D02 F10 H10 N40 O43 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10929&r=his |
| By: | Maurizio Trapanese (Banca d'Italia); Riccardo De Bonis (Banca d'Italia) |
| Abstract: | In illustrating the four ages into which the evolution of banking regulation from the 19th century to today can be divided, this paper underlines the links between the supervisory approaches and the prevailing economic theories in each era, and tries to draw from the historical experience indications for the future. The emphasis is on the age of banking deregulation and the subsequent response to the 2007-08 global financial crisis. As regards the current phase, the work underlines how decisions have been taken in some jurisdictions (e.g., US) since 2018 to introduce deviations from the international prudential standards. It is to these elements that the causes of the crises of some American regional banks in the first months of 2023 can be traced. For the future, attention is drawn to the need for the authorities to resist pressure to deregulate the system, introducing instead the possible corrective measures suggested by the recent crisis cases. At the same time, the importance of proceeding with a reduction of regulatory complexity and of pursuing the right balance between regulatory proportionality and the protection of financial stability is underlined. |
| Keywords: | economic thought, financial crises, banks, regulation, economic history |
| JEL: | B20 G01 G21 G39 N20 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_796_23&r=his |
| By: | Levy, David M. |
| Abstract: | Review of “Adam Smith’s America: How a Scottish Philosopher Became an Icon of American Capitalism” by Glory M. Liu. |
| Date: | 2024–02–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:47ed3&r=his |
| By: | Angel de la Fuente |
| Abstract: | En esta nota se describe brevemente la última actualización del módulo sectorial de la base de datos RegData FEDEA-BBVA (véase de la Fuente 2017 y 2023 y de la Fuente y Ruiz Aguirre, 2020). En este módulo se desagregan por sectores las series regionales de empleo (ocupados y asalariados), VAB a precios corrientes y constantes y remuneración de asalariados del módulo central de RegData y se construyen deflactores regionales del VAB para cada sector, trabajando con una desagregación en seis grandes ramas productivas extensible de forma tentativa a ocho. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2024-07&r=his |
| By: | Grosjean, Pauline (UNSW Sydney); Jha, Saumitra (Stanford U); Vlassopoulos, Michael (U of Southampton and IZA, Bonn); Zenou, Yves (Monash U and IZA, Bonn) |
| Abstract: | We study the dynamics between local segregation, partisanship, and political polarization. We exploit large-scale, exogenous and high-stakes peer assignment due to universal conscription of soldiers assigned from each of 34, 947 municipalities to French infantry regiments during WWI. We find that municipalities with soldiers serving with the same line regiment converge in their post-war voting behaviors. Soldiers from rural municipalities exposed to more leftist regimental peers become more leftist for the first time after the war, while adjacent municipalities assigned to the right are inoculated against the left. We provide evidence that these differences reflect persuasive information exchanged among peers when the stakes for cooperation and trust are high rather than group conformity. These differences further lead to the emergence of sharp and enduring post-war discontinuities across 435 regimental boundaries that are reflected, not only in voting, but also in violent civil conflicts between Collaborators and Resistants during WWII. |
| JEL: | D74 L14 N44 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:4142&r=his |
| By: | Jeanet Sinding Bentzen (University of Copenhagen, CAGE, CEPR); Nina Boberg-Fazlić (TU Dortmund University, CEPR); Paul Sharp (University of Southern Denmark, CAGE, CEPR); Christian Volmar Skovsgaard (University of Southern Denmark); Christian Vedel (University of Southern Denmark) |
| Abstract: | The cultural assimilation of immigrants into the host society is often equated with prospects for economic success, with religion seen as a potential barrier. We investigate the role of ethnic enclaves and churches for the assimilation of Danish Americans using a difference-indifferences setting. Following the ordination of a divisive religious figure in 1883, this otherwise small and homogeneous group split into rival Lutheran revivalist camps - so-called “Happy” and “Holy” Danes. The former sought the preservation of Danish culture and tradition, while the latter encouraged assimilation. We use data from the US census and Danish American church and newspaper archives, and find that Danish Americans living in a county with a “Happy” church chose more Danish names for their children. Newspapers read by “Holy Danes” saw a more rapid Anglicization of the language used. Religious beliefs thus facilitated assimilation. Divergence in behaviour only emerged following the religious division. |
| Keywords: | Assimilation, Danish Americans, enclaves, immigration, religion |
| JEL: | F22 J61 N31 N32 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0253&r=his |
| By: | Faudot, Adrien |
| Abstract: | Review of “Robert Triffin: A Life” by Ivo Maes. |
| Date: | 2024–01–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wtfdb&r=his |
| By: | Raul Año Breso (Universitat de Valencia) |
| Abstract: | España fue el principal exportador de citricos durante las primeras decadas del siglo XX. La crisis de reputacion de los citricos españoles durante los años 30, la Guerra Civil y el aislamiento internacional del franquismo causaron un retroceso en esta posicion comercial en los años 40. A partir de 1950, España recupero posiciones hasta convertirse de nuevo en el exportador hegemonico en Europa. El objetivo es determinar como evoluciono la competitividad de la exportacion española de citricos en los mercados internacionales. La metodologia a seguir consiste en analizar la evoluciin de la competitividad de los diferentes paises exportadores a traves de diferentes indicadores de competitividad internacional: Indice de Balassa Simetrico, Variante de Chi-Cuadrado, Indice de Ventaja Comparativa Revelada Aditiva, Indice Simetrico de Ventaja Relativa del Comercio, Indice de Diversificación de Mercados, C4, Variante de Adaptacion a la Demanda Global y Matriz de Competitividad Global. Estos indicadores muestran que España experimento un gran retroceso durante la inmediata posguerra, pero recupero posiciones a partir de 1950 hasta su consolidacion a mediados de dicha decada. |
| Keywords: | exportacion de citricos, citricultura, competitividad |
| JEL: | N70 Q17 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bci:wpaper:2402&r=his |
| By: | Rupieper, Li Kathrin Kaja (Leibniz University of Hannover); Thomsen, Stephan L. (Leibniz University of Hannover) |
| Abstract: | After the German Reunification in 1990, East Germany transitioned from a centrally planned economic system to a market economy. At the time, upskilling through adult education was deemed essential for the successful integration of the workforce into the labor market. Besides substantial mandatory training programs provided by active labor market policies, Volkshochschulen (VHS) were the most important providers of voluntary adult education. The economic effects of their courses have not been analyzed so far. Based on newly digitized data, we evaluate the effects of VHS courses on unemployment in a county-level analysis of East Germany between 1991 and 2002. Our identification strategy is based on a decentralized expansion of courses, which led to substantial and quasi-random variation in course numbers. We find no evidence that VHS courses harmed labor market integrations, in contrast to some active labor market policies. Courses did not affect subsequent unemployment on average. Yet, in counties neighboring West Germany, we find that courses reduced unemployment. Low labor demand may have restricted the realization of education effects. As both work-related and purely recreational courses reduced unemployment in counties bordering West Germany, our results also hint towards the relevance of social capital for successful labor market integrations. |
| Keywords: | unemployment, adult education, non-formal education, Volkshochschule, East Germany |
| JEL: | I21 J24 N34 P20 P36 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16779&r=his |
| By: | Ignacio P. Campomanes |
| Keywords: | Rule of law, Democracy, Economic Freedom, Institutions. |
| JEL: | O43 E02 P16 K10 H11 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nva:unnvaa:wp01-2024&r=his |
| By: | Benson, Todd; De Weerdt, Joachim; Duchoslav, Jan; Masanjala, Winford |
| Abstract: | Malawi has been at the center of the debate on agricultural input subsidies in Africa ever since it significantly expanded its fertilizer subsidy program about two decades ago. When it did so, Malawi was a trailblazer, receiving international attention for seemingly leveraging the subsidy program to move the country from a situation characterized by food deficits and widespread hunger to crop production surpluses. In this paper we trace the history of Malawi’s subsidy program over the past 70 years, describing how the country arrived at that watershed moment earlier this century and how the subsidy program has developed since. We show how donor support for the program has wavered and how external pressure to remove the subsidy has repeatedly been unsuccessful. We also demonstrate how over the years the program’s total fiscal burden has fluctuated significantly. However, we find that since the expansion of the subsidy program in 2004, the fiscal costs of the program have shown little correlation with the maize harvest that same agricultural season. We show that the subsidy program has succeeded in raising awareness about the value of the fertilizer for increased crop productivity. However, despite its continued prominence in the country’s agricultural policy, most Malawian smallholder do not manage to grow sufficient maize to feed their households throughout the year, and every year millions depend on food assistance during the worst months of the lean season. |
| Keywords: | fertilizers; subsidies; maize; food security; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Malawi |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:masspp:44&r=his |
| By: | James Lake (Department of Economics, University of Tennessee); Andrew Greenland (Department of Economics, North Carolina State University); John Lopresti (Department of Economics, William and Mary) |
| Abstract: | Against a backdrop of sharply rising inequality, the Tokyo Round of the GATT resulted in a 1.6 percentage point reduction in average US tariffs – larger than CUSFTA, NAFTA, and the liberalization accompanying the granting of PNTR to China. We construct a novel IV based on the so-called ``Swiss formula'' that governed Tokyo Round tariff liberalization to provide the first evidence of its effects on imports and inequality. Instrumented tariff reductions explain 17% of the within-industry rise in income inequality between skilled and unskilled workers between 1979 and 1988. This effect is largest in more technology-intensive industries, suggesting a complementarity between trade liberalization and skill-biased technological change. We also show that tariff liberalization in upstream industries produced a shift away from labor more broadly and towards intermediate inputs. Finally, we show that policymakers dampened the observed impact of tariffs on inequality by assigning smaller tariff reductions to industries more reliant on low-skilled labor. |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F66 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ten:wpaper:2024-02&r=his |
| By: | Ramirez Chaparro, Maria Nathalia; Chacón Mejía, Catalina |
| Abstract: | This research paper examines the role of industrial policies and innovation strategies in Latin America's quest for economic development. Despite the region's potential, persistent challenges such as coordination deficits and limited technology absorption continue to impede progress. Through a review of productivity data and historical perspectives on industrial policies in four Latin American countries, this paper highlights the complexities of state intervention and the importance of strategic alignment with innovation agendas. Additionally, it explores the interplay between industrial policies and innovation strategies, emphasizing the need to nurture indigenous capabilities and promote inclusive innovation. By challenging conventional views on informality in the labor market, this paper advocates for a holistic approach that integrates targeted industrial policies with innovation strategies to drive sustainable growth and inclusive prosperity in Latin America. |
| Keywords: | innovation strategies, structural change, industrial policies, Latinamerica |
| JEL: | O1 O3 O35 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120240&r=his |
| By: | Federle, Jonathan; Meier, André; Müller, Gernot J.; Mutschler, Willi; Schularick, Moritz |
| Abstract: | In an integrated global economy, the economic fallout of war is not confined to the country where the conflict is fought but spills over to other countries. We study the economic effects of large interstate wars using a new data set spanning 150 years of data for more than 60 countries. War on a country's territory typically leads to an output decline of 30 percent and a 15 percentage point increase in inflation. We find large negative effects also for countries that are geographically close to the war site, irrespective of their participation in the war. Output in neighboring countries falls by more than 10 percent over 5 years, and inflation rises by 5 percentage points on average. Negative spillovers decline with geographic distance and increase in the degree of trade integration with the war site. For very distant countries, output spillovers can turn positive so that wars create winners and losers in the international economy. We rationalize these findings in an international business cycle model, calibrated to capture key features of the data. As the war destroys capital in the war site and productivity falls, trade with nearby economies decreases, generating an endogenous supply-side contraction abroad. |
| Keywords: | Interstate Wars, Business Cycles, Spillovers, Distance, Supply Shocks, InternationalTransmission |
| JEL: | F40 F50 E50 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:283893&r=his |
| By: | Hancke, Robert; Mathei, Laurenz |
| Abstract: | This article examines the responses and strategies developed by business, unions, and governments to the electric turn in the industry in Germany and France, Europe’s main car-producing countries. We concentrate on the role of history and institutions in the determination of adjustment paths. Since institutions reflect specific histories, the electric transition in the industry can take on different forms in different countries. In both countries, governments play a supportive role, leading in France, and following in Germany. The strong works councils in German car companies are reluctant to engage in a rapid transition that would devalue the assets of the workforce and endanger past investments in internal combustion-related technology. Trade unions, in contrast, who organise the workforce in the wider industry, are in favour of a faster transition as it will secure future employment. The French EV industry, in contrast, is now a booming sector, after several decades of deep restructuring with massive employment losses. Its key short-term problem is to train enough workers to staff the rapidly expanding car battery industry. Lacking a deeply rooted training system like the German one, the industry has a relatively free hand in selecting and preparing its future workforce. |
| Keywords: | T&F deal |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2024–02–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122000&r=his |
| By: | Christian M{\o}ller Dahl; Christian Vedel |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a new tool, OccCANINE, to automatically transform occupational descriptions into the HISCO classification system. The manual work involved in processing and classifying occupational descriptions is error-prone, tedious, and time-consuming. We finetune a preexisting language model (CANINE) to do this automatically thereby performing in seconds and minutes what previously took days and weeks. The model is trained on 14 million pairs of occupational descriptions and HISCO codes in 13 different languages contributed by 22 different sources. Our approach is shown to have accuracy, recall and precision above 90 percent. Our tool breaks the metaphorical HISCO barrier and makes this data readily available for analysis of occupational structures with broad applicability in economics, economic history and various related disciplines. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.13604&r=his |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou |
| Abstract: | The trinity of liberty, the rule of law, and private property are inter- connected principles that form the foundation of a free and just society. Each element depends on the others to ensure the protection of individual rights and the proper functioning of legal and political institutions. |
| Date: | 2024–03–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:623&r=his |
| By: | Yoshifumi Konishi (Department of Economics, Keio University); Akari Ono (Graduate School of Economics, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | Economists are increasingly concerned with the heterogeneous impacts of transportation infrastructure investments on economic outcomes, particularly the phenomenon known as the gStraw Effect h: Core cities that were already in economic prosperity may gain more, and peripheral cities may lose, from large transportation projects. We empirically investigate whether such an effect manifests in the case of the Great Seto Bridges in Japan, a 70-billion-dollar project implemented as part of the gBuilding-a-new-Japan h initiative in the 1980s-1990s. We employ the recently developed recentered instrumental variable approach in the difference-in-differences design, exploiting the sharp decline in transport costs and its differential impacts on market access levels across cities of different economic prosperity as exogenous sources of variation. We find that, contrary to the straw effect, large peripheral cities gain more than core cities, rather than lose, from the megaproject. We also demonstrate that the distribution of winners and losers from the megaproject depends on where the associated cost reductions occur in the existing network structures. |
| Keywords: | Market Access, Transportation Investment, Core-Periphery Model, Economic Geography, Quantitative Spatial Model |
| JEL: | O18 R4 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–02–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:2024-003&r=his |
| By: | Barbara Petrongolo |
| Abstract: | The study of gender was far from mainstream in economics when Claudia Goldin began her research on women and work in the 1980s. Barbara Petrongolo discusses the impact of the 2023 economics Nobel laureate in shaping today's research frontier on gender inequalities - from public policy to the stereotypes and social norms that have such a powerful influence on women's participation in the labour market. |
| Keywords: | gender, equality, public policy, labour markets |
| Date: | 2024–02–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:671&r=his |
| By: | Azin Yazdi; Sunder Ramachandran; Hoda Mohsenifard; Khaled Nawaser; Faraz Sasani; Behrooz Gharleghi |
| Abstract: | Business research is facing the challenge of scattered knowledge, particularly in the realm of brand loyalty (BL). Although literature reviews on BL exist, they predominantly concentrate on the pre-sent state, neglecting future trends. Therefore, a comprehensive review is imperative to ascertain emerging trends in BL This study employs a bibliometric approach, analyzing 1, 468 papers from the Scopus database. Various tools including R software, VOS viewer software, and Publish or Perish are utilized. The aim is to portray the knowledge map, explore the publication years, identify the top authors and their co-occurrence, reliable documents, institutions, subjects, research hotspots, and pioneering countries and universities in the study of BL. The qualitative section of this research identifies gaps and emerging trends in BL through Word Cloud charts, word growth analysis, and a review of highly cited articles from the past four years. Results showed that highly cited articles mention topics such as brand love, consumer-brand identification, and social networks and the U.S. had the most productions in this field. Besides, most citations were related to Keller with 1, 173 citations. Furthermore, in the qualitative section, social networks and brand experiences were found to be of interest to researchers in the field. Finally, by introducing the antecedents and consequences of BL, the gaps and emerging trends in BL were identified, so as to present the di-rection of future research in this area. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.13177&r=his |
| By: | Shishir Shakya; Nabamita Dutta |
| Abstract: | We examine a novel hypothesis about the mediation role of education in the re- lationship between individualism and female nancial inclusion. Grounded in the parasite-stress theory of values, which posits that regional variations in infectious diseases in uence cultural traits such as individualism, we employ causal mediation analysis within the instrumental variables framework. We dissect the total aver- age causal e ect of the individualism-collectivism cultural dimension, as de ned by Hofstede's classi cation index, on female nancial inclusion, distinguishing between direct and indirect impacts via the education channel. We nd that education sig- ni cantly mediates almost half of the overall in uence of individualism on female nancial inclusion. Key Words: |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apl:wpaper:24-07&r=his |
| By: | Leek, Lauren Caroline (European University Institute); Bischl, Simeon; Freier, Maximilian |
| Abstract: | While institutionally independent, monetary policy-makers do not operate in a vacuum. The policy choices of a central bank are intricately linked to government policies and financial markets. We present novel indices of monetary, fiscal and financial policy-linkages based on central bank communication, namely, speeches by 118 central banks worldwide from 1997 to mid-2023. Our indices measure not only instances of monetary, fiscal or financial dominance but, importantly, also identify communication that aims to coordinate monetary policy with the government and financial markets. To create our indices, we use a Large Language Model (ChatGPT 3.5-0301) and provide transparent prompt-engineering steps, considering both accuracy on the basis of a manually coded dataset as well as efficiency regarding token usage. We also test several model improvements and provide descriptive statistics of the trends of the indices over time and across central banks including correlations with political-economic variables. |
| Date: | 2024–02–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:78wnp&r=his |
| By: | Devasmita Jena (Corresponding Author, Madras School of Economics (MSE), Chennai); C. Akash (MSE); Prachi Gupta (Temple University, Tokyo, Japan) |
| Abstract: | Success of economic sanctions hinges on their impact on sanctioned countries’ trade. This, in turn, depends on the sanctioned country’s opportunity to divert trade to a third-party (country, not involved in sanctions). History is witness to third-parties facilitating trade diversion, thus busting sanction. Nonetheless, literature does not present conclusive evidence on trade diversion or on motivation for busting sanctions. Therefore, in this paper, we address the following. What bearing sanctions have on bilateral trade flows and trade diversion? Is diversion dependent on the political and trade alliance the third-party shares with the sanctioned and/or the sanctioning countries? We estimate a structural gravity model for globally representative country-dyads, during 1990-2019, using, inter-alia the Global Sanctions Database. We find that sanctions depress bilateral trade between sanctioned and sanctioning nations and cause trade diversion via third-party. The existence of trade alliance between third-party and country involved in sanction has additional impact on trade diversion. Furthermore, a political alliance between third-party and sanctioned country heightens trade between them. However, political alliance between third-party and sanctioning country doesn’t explain trade between them. Our results have insight for India’s evolving trade relations with Russia, since 2022, as Russia reels under Western sanctions. |
| Keywords: | Sanction, GSDB, Trade Agreement, Political Alliance, Structural Gravity Model |
| JEL: | F1 F14 F51 N4 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mad:wpaper:2023-248&r=his |
| By: | Greg Buchak; Gregor Matvos; Tomasz Piskorski; Amit Seru |
| Abstract: | The traditional model of bank-led financial intermediation, where banks issue demandable deposits to savers and make informationally sensitive loans to borrowers, has seen a dramatic decline since 1970s. Instead, private credit is increasingly intermediated through arms-length transactions, such as securitization. This paper documents these trends, explores their causes, and discusses their implications for the financial system and regulation. We document that the balance sheet share of overall private lending has declined from 60% in 1970 to 35% in 2023, while the deposit share of savings has declined from 22% to 13%. Additionally, the share of loans as a percentage of bank assets has fallen from 70% to 55%. We develop a structural model to explore whether technological improvements in securitization, shifts in saver preferences away from deposits, and changes in implicit subsidies and costs of bank activities can explain these shifts. Declines in securitization cost account for changes in aggregate lending quantities. Savers, rather than borrowers, are the main drivers of bank balance sheet size. Implicit banks’ costs and subsidies explain shifting bank balance sheet composition. Together, these forces explain the fall in the overall share of informationally sensitive bank lending in credit intermediation. We conclude by examining how these shifts impact the financial sector’s sensitivity to macroprudential regulation. While raising capital requirements or liquidity requirements decreases lending in both early (1960s) and recent (2020’s) scenarios, the effect is less pronounced in the later period due to the reduced role of bank balance sheets in credit intermediation. The substitution of bank balance sheet loans with debt securities in response to these policies explains why we observe only a fairly modest decline in aggregate lending despite a large contraction of bank balance sheet lending. Overall, we find that the intermediation sector has undergone significant transformation, with implications for macroprudential policy and financial regulation. |
| JEL: | E50 G2 G20 G21 G22 G23 G24 G28 G29 L50 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32176&r=his |
| By: | Bullipe R. Chintha; Ravi Jagannathan; Sri S. Sridhar |
| Abstract: | China's admission into the WTO in 2001 heralded a new era of globalization, increasing both import competition in domestic markets and foreign opportunities for US firms. In the aggregate, the average annual profitability of US public firms during the post globalization period (2003-2019) increased by 11.5% of the corresponding pre-globalization period (1984-2002) profitability. This increase in overall aggregate profitability was primarily driven by foreign profitability increasing by 47.4% for firms in the S&P 500 index, which are larger and have more intangible assets created by R&D and SG&A expenditures. In contrast, following globalization, the average aggregate domestic profitability of US firms remained flat, and firms employed more capital to generate sales. Firms with higher intangible assets benefited more from globalization. |
| JEL: | F20 F30 G0 G12 G30 L1 L25 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32202&r=his |
| By: | Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Daniel R. Sanches |
| Abstract: | We present a micro-founded monetary model of a small open economy to examine the behavior of money, prices, and output under the gold standard. In particular, we formally analyze Hume’s celebrated price-specie flow mechanism. Our framework incorporates the influence of international trade on the money supply in the Home country through gold flows. In the short run, a positive correlation exists between the quantity of money and the price level. Additionally, we demonstrate that money is non-neutral during the transition to the steady state, which has implications for welfare. While the gold standard exposes the Home country to short-term fluctuations in money, prices, and output caused by external shocks, it ensures long-term price stability as the quantity of money and prices only temporarily deviate from their steady-state levels. We discuss the importance of policy coordination for achieving efficiency under the gold standard and consider the role of fiat money in this environment. We also develop a version of the model with two large economies. |
| Keywords: | Gold standard; specie flows; non-neutrality of money; long-run price stability; inelastic money supply |
| JEL: | E42 E58 G21 |
| Date: | 2024–02–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:97882&r=his |
| By: | Ochsner, Christian; Other, Lars; Thiel, Esther; Zuber, Christopher |
| Abstract: | We study the long-run interaction between Germany's economic growth trajectory and demographic aging. Using a comprehensive dataset, we leverage the classical production function approach to estimate potential output growth between 1970 and 2070. We account for the inherent uncertainty in our projections using Bayesian estimation techniques. Overall, Germany's potential output growth up to 2070 will be low if current economic trends persist. In particular, the diminishing labor volume, coupled with sluggish total factor productivity and investment trend growth, contributes to the decline. Our results highlight the significance of demographic factors in shaping economic trajectories and the critical need for policy interventions to mitigate adverse effects. Our analysis can serve as valuable inputs for formulating long-term economic policies. |
| Keywords: | demographic aging, production function, potential output, Germany, long-run forecast, economic growth |
| JEL: | E13 E17 E23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:284412&r=his |
| By: | Mayuri Chaturvedi |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I explore the effect of older males’ and females’ education on younger cohorts’ education in the United States. I use US Census and ACS data from 1940-2016 and exploit the differences in schooling levels among different ethnicities as a source of variation in the pool of skills among potential partners. I find that older men’s education correlates more strongly compared to older women’s with females in younger cohorts. I develop a model of pre-marital investments in education to explain the above results. Agents derive utility from labor market returns and marriage market returns to education. Due to society’s preference that women marry up, the model proposes that women experience lower utility from getting ‘too much’ education because of a lower probability of finding a preferred partner. When there are more high-education men around, women respond by increasing their education because of a loosening of their constraint. The model also predicts that high-skill women will be less affected by the change in men’s education than low-skill women. |
| Keywords: | gender norms, education, marriage norms, culture, inequality, ethnicity, hypergamy |
| JEL: | I2 I23 I24 I26 I29 J16 J24 Z1 |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:liv:livedp:202216&r=his |
| By: | Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a long-memory model including multiple cycles in addition to the long-run component. Specifically, instead of a single pole or singularity in the spectrum, it allows for multiple poles and thus different cycles with different degrees of persistence. It also incorporates non-linear deterministic structures in the form of Chebyshev polynomials in time. Simulations are carried out to analyse the finite sample properties of the proposed test, which is shown to perform well in the case of a relatively large sample with at least 1000 observations. The model is then applied to weekly data on the S&P500 from 1 January 1970 to 26 October 2023 as an illustration. The estimation results based on the first differenced logged values (i.e., the returns) point to the existence of three cyclical structures in the series with a length of approximately one month, one year and four years respectively, and to orders of integration in the range (0, 0.20), which implies stationary long memory in all cases. |
| Keywords: | fractional integration, multiple cycles, stock market indices, S&P500 |
| JEL: | C22 C15 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10947&r=his |