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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2024‒02‒05
25 papers chosen by |
| By: | Ó Gráda, Cormac; Lee, Chihua; Lumey, L. H. |
| Abstract: | ABSTRACT: Since the 1970s, famines have been widely invoked as natural experiments in research into the long-term impact of foetal exposure to nutritional shocks. That research has produced compelling evidence for a robust link between foetal exposure and the odds of developing schizophrenia. However, the implications of that research for the human cost of famines in the longer run has not been investigated. We address the connection between foetal origins and schizophrenia with that question in mind. The impact turns out to be very modest – much less than one per cent of the associated famine death tolls – across a selection of case studies. |
| Keywords: | famine, schizophrenia, foetal origins |
| JEL: | I10 I15 J1 N0 |
| Date: | 2023–11–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119448&r=his |
| By: | Cummins, Neil |
| Abstract: | We use the universe of probate and vital registers, from England between 1838 and 2018 to document the status of the Irish in England. We identify the ‘Irish’ in the records as those individuals with distinctively Irish surnames. From at least the mid-19th century to 2018, the Irish in England have persisted as an underclass, being on average 50% poorer than the English. Infant mortality was about 25% higher for the Irish between the 1830s and the mid-twentieth century but has subsequently equalized. Sorting, both to urban areas, and to the North of England, are important elements in the Irish experience. We discuss the potential roles of selective migration, social mobility, and discrimination in this, and signpost directions for future research. |
| Keywords: | inequality; economic history; big data |
| JEL: | N00 N33 N34 |
| Date: | 2024–01–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121184&r=his |
| By: | Daniel Gallardo-Albarrán (Wageningen University) |
| Abstract: | This survey sheds light on the causes and consequences of the global sanitary revolution that resulted in the spread of waterworks and sewerage projects since the middle of the 19th century, by drawing on research from the fields of economic history, economics and history. I begin with a discussion of the construction of these infrastructures during the period 1850-1940 showing that their spread was relatively similar in major urban cities across the globe, while diffusion within countries and cities themselves was markedly unequal. Second, I review research looking at the mortality impact of access to clean water and sanitation. These account for ca. 10-30 percent of declines in infant mortality and in industrial settings their joint effect explains between 20 and 25 percent of the fall in infant and overall mortality. Lastly, I examine the drivers of the sanitary revolution with a new framework that distinguishes between proximate factors (e.g. physical capital) and ultimate factors (e.g. institutions). I argue that the state of knowledge in this literature is insufficient to explain between- and within-country differences in access to sanitary services and that more attention should be devoted to the interaction of political factors with economic, cultural and biogeographic contexts. |
| Keywords: | waterworks, sanitation, mortality, political economy, cities |
| JEL: | I18 N30 N90 L95 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0247&r=his |
| By: | Swift, Eleanor |
| Keywords: | Arts and Humanities, University of California, Berkeley, 150 Years of Women |
| Date: | 2023–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:cshedu:qt8w67t39q&r=his |
| By: | Marguerite Obolensky; Marco Tabellini; Charles Taylor |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces the concept of “climate matching” as a driver of migration and establishes several new results. First, we show that climate strongly predicts the spatial distribution of immigrants in the US, both historically (1880) and more recently (2015), whereby movers select destinations with climates similar to their place of origin. Second, we analyze historical flows of German, Norwegian, and domestic migrants in the US and document that climate sorting also holds within countries. Third, we exploit variation in the long-run change in average US climate from 1900 to 2019 and find that migration increased more between locations whose climate converged. Fourth, we verify that results are not driven by the persistence of ethnic networks or other confounders, and provide evidence for two complementary mechanisms: climate-specific human capital and climate as amenity. Fifth, we back out the value of climate similarity by: i) exploiting the Homestead Act, a historical policy that changed relative land prices; and, ii) examining the relationship between climate mismatch and mortality. Finally, we project how climate change shapes the geography of US population growth by altering migration patterns, both historically and into the 21st century. |
| JEL: | J15 J61 N31 N32 Q54 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32035&r=his |
| By: | Adamopoulou, Effrosyni; Olivieri, Elisabetta; Triviza, Eleftheria |
| Abstract: | This study explores the long-run effects of a temporary scarcity of a consumption good on preferences towards that good once the shock is over. Specifically, we focus on individuals who were children during World War II and assess the consequences of the temporary drop in meat availability they experienced early in life. To this end, we combine new hand-collected historical data on the number of livestock at the local level with microdata on eating habits, health outcomes, and food consumption expenditures. By exploiting cohort and regional variation in a difference-in-differences estimation, we show that individuals who as children were more exposed to meat scarcity tend to consume relatively more meat and spend more on food during late adulthood. Consistent with medical studies on the side effects of meat overconsumption, we also find that these individuals have a higher probability of being obese, having poor self-perceived health, and developing cancer. The effects are larger for women and persist intergenerationally, as the adult children of mothers who experienced meat scarcity similarly tend to overconsume meat. Our results point towards a behavioral channel, where early-life shocks shape eating habits, food consumption, and adult health. |
| Keywords: | preferences, food consumption, early life experiences, gender differences |
| JEL: | D12 I10 N44 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:280927&r=his |
| By: | António Afonso; Valérie Mignon; Jamel Saadaoui |
| Abstract: | We assess the impact of China’s bilateral political relations with three main trading partners—the US, Germany, and the UK—on current account balances and exchange rates, over the 1960Q1-2022Q4 period. Relying on the lag-augmented VAR approach with time-varying Granger causality tests, we find that political relationships with China strongly matter in explaining the dynamics of current accounts and exchange rates. Such relationships cause the evolution of the exchange rate (except in the UK) and the current account; these causal links being time-varying for the US and the UK and robust over the entire period for Germany. These findings suggest that policymakers should account for bilateral political relationships to understand the global macroeconomic consequences of political tensions. |
| Keywords: | Political relations; time-varying causality; lag-augmented vector autoregression; China. |
| JEL: | C22 F51 Q41 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2023-41&r=his |
| By: | Olivier Guillot |
| Abstract: | Based on individual-level data from military registers, this paper explores the trajectories of French conscripts during the Great War. The sample studied consists of more than 20, 000 men of the recruitment classes of 1900 to 1914. Besides a descriptive analysis, which aims at providing both a statistical portrait of conscripts and an insight into their wartime paths, regression analyses are carried out to identify factors influencing, or associated with, (1) fitness for armed service, (2) assignment to a civilian rather than military position, (3) infantry assignment, and (4) war mortality. The main focus is on whether there were inequalities in combat exposure and mortality in relation to socioeconomic status (as measured by family background, education, and occupation). The results of these analyses suggest that some social groups were more exposed to war violence than others. In particular, it appears that conscripts employed as farmers in civilian life were more likely to be considered fit to fight than industry/craft workers and (most of) men working in the tertiary sector. They were also more likely to join the war as infantry soldiers and had a lower probability to be recalled from the front and assigned to a civilian position. All this partly explains why mortality was higher in this group. Similarly, the analysis of deaths reveals that conscripts from disadvantaged family backgrounds (i.e. who were born out of wedlock and/or placed in public care during childhood) had a higher risk of dying during the conflict. The differences in mortality risk according to family background and occupation were, however, of lower magnitude than those associated with military characteristics (recruitment class, assignment and rank). |
| Keywords: | World War 1; French Army; war mortality; social stratification; archival data. |
| JEL: | N34 N44 Z13 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2023-39&r=his |
| By: | Humphreys, Sheila M. |
| Keywords: | Arts and Humanities |
| Date: | 2023–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:cshedu:qt3nv1z2cn&r=his |
| By: | Humphreys, Sheila |
| Keywords: | Arts and Humanities |
| Date: | 2023–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:cshedu:qt8f60t6hc&r=his |
| By: | Yokoyama, Kazuki |
| Abstract: | How companies can achieve the urgently required innovation is a contemporary issue. As a historical example of this issue, this paper notices the case of Tokyo Rope Corporation (Tokyo Seiko) in the Meiji era (1868-1911). The purpose of this paper is to examine the factors of Tokyo Rope’s R&D based on the records of the company history and other documents. This paper points out three factors: (1) rebuilding a corporate governance structure for ambidexterity, which refers balancing the exploitation of existing products with the exploration of new developments; (2) intellectual communication between academic researchers and practitioners; and (3) smooth B2B transactions. The trinity of these factors could have brought about rapid innovation. |
| Keywords: | innovation, R&D (research and development), ambidexterity, exploitation, exploration, intellectual communication, and B2B (business-to-business). |
| JEL: | N65 N85 O32 |
| Date: | 2023–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119536&r=his |
| By: | William A. Allen (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) |
| Abstract: | The history of ‘money doctors’ despatched to give financial advice to countries thought to be in need of it has mainly concentrated on American advisers (e.g. Flandreau 2003). This paper gives an account of a British mission to Poland in 1923 – 1924, a period which coincided with the ending of Poland’s hyper-inflation. It describes how the mission contributed to Poland’s monetary stabilisation in 1924, and explores the tensions that arose about the scope and functions of the mission, and of foreign advisers more generally, both between the mission and the Polish authorities, and within the mission. |
| Keywords: | Poland, money doctors, inflation, Hilton Young, Grabski, monetary reform |
| JEL: | N14 N24 N44 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:366&r=his |
| By: | Tamilina, Larysa |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the influence of historical encounters with invasions and territorial fragmentation on the formation of a democratic political culture. Utilizing individual-level psychological theories, I illustrate that enduring occupations tend to foster pro-democratic values, such as a sense of resistance and autonomy. Additionally, the historical presence of territorial fragmentation contributes to the proliferation of diverse opinions, stimulating social dialogues and prompting citizens to advocate for a greater say and increased participation in the political sphere. Conversely, regions acting as occupiers and avoiding territorial division typically exhibit authoritarian governance, fostering submission to authorities and a distorted understanding of power. To validate these propositions, I employ Ukraine and Russia as illustrative examples. By applying a structural equation modeling to the World Values Survey data, I demonstrate that Ukraine, characterized by dynamic occupations and territorial fragmentation throughout its evolution as a nation, is more likely to belong to a class reflecting a more democratic political culture. In contrast, Russia's history of a unified authoritarian state is associated with an increased probability of belonging to a class describing a less democratic culture. |
| Keywords: | History and politics, political culture, psychology of nations, Russia, Ukraine. |
| JEL: | N40 P5 P50 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119727&r=his |
| By: | Vourkoutiotis, Sifis Sato |
| Abstract: | The document titled "Consideration on the world afterward of Informatization" provides a comprehensive analysis of societal changes, with a particular focus on Japan, though applicable globally. It discusses the transition from an industrial to an "Assessonomic society", the evolving role of science and technology, a comparison of the lifestyles and values of ancient people with those of the modern era, and the changing perceptions and values towards science. Here I argue that the limitations of science, declining public trust in scientists, and the changing role of mass media have led to a loss of societal faith and dreams about science. These factors indicate a shift away from scientism, as people begin exploring other values. |
| Date: | 2024–01–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:65uhq&r=his |
| By: | John Bonin (Department of Economics, Wesleyan University) |
| Abstract: | In the United States, the craft beer industry began in the 1980s with the early companies operating as microbusiness consisting mainly of an owner or two and a few employees. Employee ownership using the legislation on Employee Stock Ownership Plans (ESOPs) appeared initially in the industry with the first such plan instituted in 1999 at New Belgium Brewing Company, Inc. in Fort Collins, Colorado. Adoption of such plans started in earnest in 2014 when Massachusetts Bay Brewing Company a.k.a. Harpoon Brewery located in Boston, Massachusetts adopted an ESOP. This time period also witnessed start-ups of microbrasseries in Quebec, Canada that have similar characteristics to the original U.S. craft beer microbusinesses. The paper begins by reviewing a few salient contributions to the economic literature on employee ownership. Institutional information about the ESOP legislation in the U.S. and relevant aspects of Employee Ownership Trusts (EOTs), which have a long history in the U.K., follows. We compare ESOPs in ten companies in the U.S. craft beer industry and discuss the experiences of two companies, namely New Belgium Brewing and Modern Times Beer (San Diego, California), that adopted ESOPs but had them dissolved when they merged with large beer companies. Of the ten with current ESOPs, we choose two with different characteristics, namely Harpoon Brewery (134 active employee participants) and Switchback Brewing Company in Burlington Vermont (30 active employee participants) to present as mini case studies. Following this, we discuss the craft beer industry in Quebec consisting of over 250 microbrasseries that accounted for 12% of total beer sales in the province in 2020. New federal legislation in Canada introduces very flexible designs for EOTs that may potentially support employee ownership in Quebec microbrasseries. The conclusion discusses what is needed for meaningful employee agency and voice in U.S. craft beer ESOPs and, using this analysis, conjectures about the potential for such worker engagement in Quebec’s craft beer industry based on the new Canadian EOT legislation. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wes:weswpa:2024-001&r=his |
| By: | Adar, Sinem; Tanrıverdi Yaşar, Nebahat |
| Abstract: | Speaking at the inauguration ceremony in June after being sworn in for the third time as the president of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoægan promised the nation that his policies in the coming five years would "crown the second century of the republic with the Century of Türkiye". Turkey has undergone a massive transformation in the last two decades since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) rose to power in 2002. Undoubtedly, the reconfiguration of civil-military relations has been one of the most critical markers of such change. The Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) has, under AKP rule, become an executor of foreign policy in an empowered security ecosystem consisting of the Ministry of Interior (MoI), the National Intelligence Organization (MçIT), and the defence industry. These shifts in the security environment as such have been shaped by the dynamics of regime change in Turkey and post-Cold War security imperatives. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoægan, NATO, Justice and Development Party (AKP), Turkish Armed Forces (TAF), Ministry of Interior (MoI), National Intelligence Organization (MçIT), defence industry, Turkish National Police (TNP), Syria, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Qatar |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:281033&r=his |
| By: | Cobham, David |
| Abstract: | This short paper use the perspective of the assignment problem to examine the evolution of the workings of monetary policy and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England over its first 25 years. It outlines how the Bank, and the MPC, came across additional possible objectives and searched for additional possible instruments. It then argues the need for some recasting of the role of the MPC and the way in which it operates. |
| Keywords: | assignment problem, monetary policy, inflation targeting, inflation, economic growth |
| JEL: | E42 E52 E58 F33 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hwuaef:281088&r=his |
| By: | Baron, Hervé |
| Abstract: | In the following paper, we shall focus on the Italian branch of the monetary circuit (or monetary theory of production). In particular, we shall attempt a methodical exploration of the theoretical production of the one who may rightly be considered the founding father of this branch: Augusto Graziani. We shall do this along three lines. Firstly, in the wake of Lunghini and Bianchi (2003), we shall argue that that of Graziani, far from being a complete model, is presented as a historically “open” scheme, which therefore needs “closure”. Secondly, we shall argue that this scheme should be considered as a logical, not historical, re-construction of the functioning of the capitalist economy. Finally, we shall illustrate how such a scheme stands at the highest possible level of abstraction. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Circuit, Graziani, Methodology. |
| JEL: | B31 B41 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119511&r=his |
| By: | Simins, Jill Weiss |
| Keywords: | Arts and Humanities |
| Date: | 2023–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:cshedu:qt9864d4t7&r=his |
| By: | J. Carter Braxton; Nisha Chikhale; Kyle F. Herkenhoff; Gordon M. Phillips |
| Abstract: | We combine the Decennial Census, credit reports, and administrative earnings to create the first panel dataset linking parent’s credit access to the labor market outcomes of children in the U.S. We find that a 10% increase in parent’s unused revolving credit during their children’s adolescence (13 to 18 years old) is associated with 0.28% to 0.37% greater labor earnings of their children during early adulthood (25 to 30 years old). Using these empirical elasticities, we estimate a dynastic, defaultable debt model to examine how the democratization of credit since the 1970s – modeled as both greater credit limits and more lenient bankruptcy – affected intergenerational mobility. Surprisingly, we find that the democratization of credit led to less intergenerational mobility and greater inequality. Two offsetting forces underlie this result: (1) greater credit limits raise mobility by facilitating borrowing and investment among low-income households; (2) however, more lenient bankruptcy policy lowers mobility since low-income households dissave, hit their constraints more often, and reduce investments in their children. Quantitatively, the democratization of credit is dominated by more lenient bankruptcy policy and so mobility declines between the 1970s and 2000s. |
| JEL: | D14 E21 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32031&r=his |
| By: | Jules H. van Binsbergen; Svetlana Bryzgalova; Mayukh Mukhopadhyay; Varun Sharma |
| Abstract: | Using text from 200 million pages of 13, 000 US local newspapers and machine learning methods, we construct a 170-year-long measure of economic sentiment at the country and state levels, that expands existing measures in both the time series (by more than a century) and the cross-section. Our measure predicts GDP (both nationally and locally), consumption, and employment growth, even after controlling for commonly-used predictors, as well as monetary policy decisions. Our measure is distinct from the information in expert forecasts and leads its consensus value. Interestingly, news coverage has become increasingly negative across all states in the past half-century. |
| JEL: | E2 E3 E4 E40 E43 E44 G01 G1 G10 G14 G17 G18 G40 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32026&r=his |
| By: | John B. Guerard (McKinley Capital Management, LLC) |
| Abstract: | Why should Wall Street researchers care about Sir David Hendry? What should be a role for macroeconomic forecasting on portfolio selection? What do the forecasting works and software of Professor Hendry offer Wall Street that its researchers have yet to exploit? This author offers a unique perspective on the outstanding software, Autometrics, of Professor Hendry and his colleagues. The application of saturation variables in a changing world to address structural breaks in financial data. Financial economists since the time of Harry Markowitz, William (Bill) Sharpe, Martin Gruber and Ed Elton, Burton Malkiel, and Haim Levy, have modeled corporate earnings and stock process to create diversified portfolios that may incorporate financial anomalies. What the author suggests is that the exploitation of time series patterns and structural breaks in financial data may be very useful in creating less efficient portfolios. That is, Wall Street researchers seek with great effort to beat the stock market. The author believes that the research of Herman Stekler, Geoffrey Moore, Victor Zarnowitz, and David Hendry should be integrated into portfolio selection. Professor Hendry’s software, Autometrics, should be a great resource of enormous value to portfolio construction and management. |
| Keywords: | forecasting, saturation variables, structural breaks |
| JEL: | C |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2024-001&r=his |
| By: | Kim, Minki (University of Mannheim); Lee, Munseob (University of California, San Diego) |
| Abstract: | Structural transformation and regional convergence in U.S. income have been long-standing trends. Caselli and Coleman (2001) discovered that 60% of regional convergence between the U.S. South and North from 1940 to 1990 is due to structural transformation. Our replication confirms these robust findings. Examining black and white populations separately, we find the magnitude of the regional income convergence was much larger for the black workers and structural transformation explains most regional income convergence for white workers but only 30% for black workers. Extending the analysis until 2020, we observe income convergence among black workers and divergence among white workers. Structural transformation's role in income convergence or divergence from 1990 to 2020 is negligible. |
| Keywords: | structural transformation, regional convergence, racial heterogeneity |
| JEL: | O1 R1 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16673&r=his |
| By: | BAI Yu; TANAKA Ryuichi |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether a relaxation-oriented educational approach can lead to either improved or worsened labor market outcomes. By examining individuals born in the same year but with varying durations of exposure to the relaxation-oriented curriculum of the 1980s in Japan, we analyze the impact of this curriculum on their performance in the labor market. Our findings reveal that individuals exposed to more years of a relaxed education tended to achieve less favorable outcomes, including lower earnings, a higher likelihood of unemployment, and reduced chances of securing full-time employment. This study also explores the potential mechanisms contributing to their suboptimal performance, highlighting lower educational attainment and relatively low probability to work as skilled workers. Importantly, our results remain robust even after controlling for other potential explanations and withstand various sensitivity tests. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:24003&r=his |
| By: | Jesse LaBelle; Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso; Ana Maria Santacreu; Yoto V. Yotov |
| Abstract: | We build a stylized model that captures the relationships between cross-border patenting, globalization, and development. Our theory delivers a gravity equation for cross-border patents. To test the model’s predictions, we compile a new dataset that tracks patents within and between countries and industries, for 1980-2019. The econometric analysis reveals a strong, positive impact of policy and globalization on cross-border patent flows, especially from North to South. A counterfactual welfare analysis suggests that the increase in patent flows from North to South has benefited both regions, with South gaining more than North post-2000, thus lowering real income inequality in the world. |
| Keywords: | cross-border patents, gravity, policy, globalization, development |
| JEL: | F63 O14 O33 O34 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10850&r=his |