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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2024‒01‒01
25 papers chosen by |
| By: | Benjamin Schneider; Hillary Vipond |
| Abstract: | Debates about the future of work frequently reference past instances of transformative innovation to preface analysis of how automation and artificial intelligence could reshape society and the economy. However, technological shifts in history are rarely considered in depth or used to improve predictions and planning for the coming decades. In this paper we show that a deeper understanding of history can expand knowledge of possibilities and pitfalls for employment in the future. We open by demonstrating that evidence from historical events has been used to inform responses to present-day challenges. We argue that history provides the only way to analyze the long-term impacts of technological change, and that the scale of the First Industrial Revolution may make it the only precedent for emerging transformations. Next, we present an overview of the current debates around the potential effects of impending labor-replacing innovation. We then summarize existing historical research on the causes and consequences of technological change and identify areas in which salient historical findings are overlooked. We close by proposing further research into past technological shocks that can enhance our understanding of work and employment in an automated future. |
| Keywords: | technological change, innovation, automation, future of work, technological unemployment, labor displacement |
| JEL: | J23 J64 J81 N31 N33 N71 N73 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10766&r=his |
| By: | Hotori, Eiji |
| Abstract: | In this article, I use documents obtained from the NatWest Group archives to examine the work of Alexander Shand as a director of Parr's Bank during the period 1909-1918. A Scottish banker, Alexander Shand was recruited by the Japanese government early in his career to instruct Japanese bureaucrats on the establishment of a modern banking system. Following a conflict with the Japanese government in 1877, Shand returned to the United Kingdom, where he used his connections within the British bankers' network to obtain a position with Alliance Bank, commencing in 1878. In 1892, Alliance Bank merged with Parr's Bank, and Shand was eventually appointed to the board in 1909, where he remained until Parr's Bank merged with Westminster Bank in 1918. Shand was not only keen to maintain discipline regarding insider lending, but also played an important role in underwriting bonds issued in Japan and China. In addition, Shand dealt with difficult issues related to the bank's participation in bailout plans and tax-related matters. This article confirms Shand's industrious and conservative attitude as a director of a British bank, as well as his sound management principles in the early 20th century. |
| Keywords: | financial history, UK-Japan relationship, British bank |
| JEL: | N23 N83 N93 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:eabhps:280405&r=his |
| By: | Matson, Erik W. |
| Abstract: | This paper interprets the interaction between Protestantism and commercial spirit in David Hume’s account of English development, mostly drawing from The History of England. Hume saw Protestant theology—especially the more enthusiastic strains of English Puritanism—as having fortuitously shifted the landscape of political and economic sensibilities in England in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries by affecting believer’s political, social, and economic psychologies. Those shifting psychologies exhibited affinities with concurrent developments, especially the decline of feudalism, the rise of consumerism, and the creation of an independent middle class of merchants. The peculiar synergy between such changes and Protestant theological innovations led to the emergence of England, by the eighteenth century, as a polite and commercial people—a people for whom commerce became, Hume claimed, more honorable than in any other nation. Hume, like Max Weber, saw a distinctive Protestant spirit as having contributed to the modern commercial order. |
| Date: | 2023–11–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:x5wj9&r=his |
| By: | Nicholas Martin Ford (Lund University); Kristin Ranestad (University of Oslo); Paul Sharp (University of Southern Denmark, CAGE, CEPR) |
| Abstract: | “Upper tail knowledge”, embodied by knowledge elites, has been suggested to be a driving force of industrialization and development, yet measuring it remains problematic. Despite some recent innovations, much empirical work continues to rely on measures of “average” or “non-upper tail” human capital such as literacy and years of schooling. We thus turn to per- haps unique sources from Denmark and Norway. From the early nineteenth century until after the Second World War, these countries had the tradition of publishing biographies of all high school graduates, usually 25 and 50 years after graduation. These were effectively mini-CVs covering entire careers, including work positions, travel, achievements, and more. We discuss these sources and their potential for furthering our understanding of the role of upper tail knowledge and human capital for development. Source criticism reveals strengths and weak- nesses, but importantly confirms promising perspectives for improving the measurement of upper tail knowledge. |
| Keywords: | Biographies, Denmark, Norway, human capital, source criticism, upper tail knowledge |
| JEL: | E24 I20 J24 N33 N34 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0242&r=his |
| By: | Elena Korchmina (University of Southern Denmark) |
| Abstract: | Could we measure the contribution of women to the economy in the pre-industrial world? Yes, it is possible, particularly in the context of Russia. By analyzing archival sources, we can not only measure their contribution to the economy but also observe how the Russian Empire evolved into a more economically patriarchal society over time. Examining the distribution of female property across various regions in Russia reveals a significant increase in the share of female property the 18th century, rising from 10% to 40%. However, this growth plateaued and gradually declined. By the late 19th century, the presence of women among top landowners continued to decrease. This substantial surge in female property ownership during the 18th century occurred primarily due to the increasing frequency of women being designated heirs. Using the unique datasets, I assessed the gender gap in wealth and income, which averaged around 25% across provinces. This indicates that the equal access to property established in 1715 led to Russia becoming a relatively gender-equal country over the following century. Consequently, noblewomen in the Russian Empire gained proxy voting rights. Interestingly, the authorities granted this fundamental civil right independently, without significant societal debate on the 'female question'. |
| Keywords: | Russian Empire, Gender, Wealth, Income, Pre-Industrial World |
| JEL: | N00 N13 N33 J16 D63 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0243&r=his |
| By: | Jose Ignacio Jimenez Blanco (Universidad Complutense, Madrid, Spain.) |
| Abstract: | This work analyzes long-term changes in land use (from the mid-18th century to the first third of the 20th century) in the farmlands of Jerez de la Frontera. Of the various elements to consider, the analysis focuses on the types of rotation used and, especially, on the evolution of fallow and temporary wasteland. The main conclusion is that there was an intensification of land cultivation in two different stages. First during the first half of the 19th century, within the framework of organic agriculture, without yields suffering, simultaneously with the consolidation of large agricultural and livestock operations, oriented to the production of wheat. This trend was resumed and advanced in the first third of the 20th century (2nd stage), in full transition towards inorganic agriculture, with the novelty that the intensification was accompanied by a significant increase in land productivity. There are indications that what happened in Jerez could also occur in other parts of the Andalusian countryside, although with a certain time lag. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Land use, Cereal cropping, Corn yields, Fallow, Jerez de la Frontera. |
| JEL: | N53 N54 O47 Q15 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahe:dtaehe:2308&r=his |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | As early as 1991, Ali Mazrui argued that the Red Sea was not suitable for separating Africa from Arabia. For the two were inextricably intertwined through languages, religions (particularly Islam) and identities in both the Sahara and the Red Sea in a historical fusion of Arabism and African identity. Their separation was closely linked to a broader trend in which the white world closed ranks and created a system of global apartheid. The historical origins of the Africa-Middle East divide, i.e. the views of the Red Sea and the Sahara as racial and civilizational boundaries created by European Enlightenment ideology and early colonial expansionism were reinforced by postcolonial authoritarian regimes and Cold War rivalries, as well as by nationalist currents in Africa, the Middle East and North Africa. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates increasingly viewed the Horn of Africa as their ‘Western security flank’. They were united in their desire to prevent the growing influence of Turkey, Iran and Qatar in this part of the world. These Gulf rivalries formed the basis for growing economic cooperation with SSA as well as military support and security alliances, particularly in the Horn of Africa. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which together have become the largest Gulf investors in Africa, compete with each other, particularly with Qatar, which has established embassies in most SSA countries. In addition, state and non-state actors from the Middle East and North Africa were closely involved in the destabilization of the Sahel in the 2010s by providing military, intelligence and ideological support to SSA states and terrorist groups. On the other hand, the Gulf States became increasingly dependent on migrant labour and the steady increase in migration from SSA to these countries, reinforced by the massive influx from African migrant-sending countries given the restrictions on African migration to Europe. As early as the seventh century AD, Arabia had relied heavily on the slave trade and the supply of labour from SSA, founded on the philosophy that it was legitimate to enslave black people because they were no better than animals. During this time, Black Africa became the largest slave depot in the Islamic world. To this day, there are significant African migrant and diaspora communities in the Middle East. Their presence has at times helped to perpetuate long-standing derogatory views and attitudes towards Africa and its peoples. These attitudes, based on an Arab-centric social hierarchy and expressing contempt for African cultures, remain prevalent today and shape social relationships between employers and African migrants in the emirates of the Arabian Peninsula. |
| Keywords: | CCG; Moyen-Orient; Arabie; États arabes du Golfe; Afrique subsaharienne; Mer Rouge; Corne de l'Afrique; Yémen; Printemps arabe; Sahel; terrorisme islamiste; traite négrière arabe; nationalisme arabe; Islam; travailleurs migrants; traite des êtres humains; travail forcé; Éthiopie; Somalie; Nigeria; Ghana; Turquie; Iran; Afro-Arabes; Arabie Saoudite; Émirats arabes unis; Qatar; Oman; études africaines; |
| JEL: | D31 D62 D72 D74 E26 F22 F35 F51 F52 F53 F54 F55 H12 H56 N45 Z13 |
| Date: | 2023–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119251&r=his |
| By: | Kouam, H; Mua, K |
| Abstract: | This theory presents the theory of innovation in the attainment of economic sciences. It equally reviews economic literature and investigates innovation from different economic models. It first begins with the analysis of views on classical economics, including Adam Smith and David Ricardo. This is followed by discussions on theory in innovation today, as handled in the knowledge-based economy. Analyzing the achievements in economic thought outlines that innovation's importance and relevance has grown over the last decade. |
| Keywords: | Innovation, Economic Growth, Progress, Economic Models |
| JEL: | O11 O31 O33 O34 O4 O40 |
| Date: | 2023–02–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118020&r=his |
| By: | Link, Andreas |
| JEL: | N13 N33 O15 O33 O47 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc23:277619&r=his |
| By: | Nicola Cetorelli; Saketh Prazad |
| Abstract: | Financial and technological innovation and changes in the macroeconomic environment have led to the growth of nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs), and to the possible displacement of banks in the provision of traditional financial intermediation services (deposit taking, loan making, and facilitation of payments). In this post, we look at the joint evolution of banks—referred to as depository institutions from here on—and nonbanks inside the organizational structure of bank holding companies (BHCs). Using a unique database of the organizational structure of all BHCs ever in existence since the 1970s, we document the evolution of NBFI activities within BHCs. Our evidence suggests that there exist important conglomeration synergies to having both banks and NBFIs under the same organizational umbrella. |
| Keywords: | nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs); conglomeration; benefits; banks |
| JEL: | G2 |
| Date: | 2023–11–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:97369&r=his |
| By: | Batabyal, Amitrajeet |
| Abstract: | In this short paper, I briefly discuss the economic theory of externalities. After first defining the concept, I pay attention to the history of this concept, the way in which it has been conceptualized, new developments, and the contemporary policy relevance of externalities and their regulation. |
| Keywords: | Global Externality, Negative Externality, Policy, Positive Externality, Regulation |
| JEL: | H20 Q50 |
| Date: | 2023–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119233&r=his |
| By: | Barteska, Philipp; Dobkowitz, Sonja; Olkkola, Maarit; Rieser, Michael |
| Abstract: | We show that the first nationwide mass vaccination campaign against measles increased educational attainment in the United States. Our empirical strategy exploits variation in exposure to the childhood disease across states right before the Measles Eradication Campaign of 1967–68, which reduced reported measles incidence by 90 percent within two years. Our results suggest that mass vaccination against measles increased the years of education on average by about 0.1 years in the affected cohorts. We also find tentative evidence that the college graduation rate of men increased. |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2023–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120706&r=his |
| By: | Besley, Timothy |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that a distinctive form of capitalism, cohesive capitalism, emerged in the post-war period supporting the wellbeing of its citizens through building state capacities alongside open and democratic forms of government. The paper identifies a range of threats that this model now faces and speculates on what it would take, particularly in terms of international cooperation, to respond to them. |
| Keywords: | state capacity; cohesive capitalism |
| JEL: | P16 P51 |
| Date: | 2021–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111518&r=his |
| By: | Felix Kersting (HU Berlin) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the consequences of a government mimicking the policy of its competitor by studying the introduction of the welfare state in 19th century Germany. The reform conducted by the conservative government targeted blue-collar workers and aimed to reduce the success of the socialist party. The result based on a difference-in-differences design shows that the socialist party benefited in elections due to the reform. The analysis of the mechanism points to the socialist's issue ownership by strengthening its reform orientation, which voters followed. The results are not driven by other political and economic channels related to the reform. |
| Keywords: | welfare state; socialism; government; opposition; issue ownership; voting behavior; Germany; |
| JEL: | D74 H53 I38 N44 P16 |
| Date: | 2023–11–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:448&r=his |
| By: | Pablo Astorga (Institut Barcelona d’Estudis Internacionals (IBEI)) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses, for the first time, comparable income shares of the top 10%, the middle 50% and the bottom 40% of the labour force in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela (LA6) from 1920 to 2011 using a new dataset. The main findings are: i) over the whole period the LA6 exhibited a recurrent very high income concentration at the top 10% (an average share of 48.1%) and a relatively low share for those of the bottom 40% (13.9%), with a Palma ratio of 3.5; ii) although the three shares varied over time and showed important differences across countries and developmental epochs, the region largely missed the Great Levelling experienced by the US and the UK during the middle decades of the last century; iii) there is no support over time for the “Palma proposition” stating a relative stability of the income share of the middle 50%. Despite policy efforts in the 2000s to raise the income of the bottom 40%, altogether, a more equitable income distribution is still a pending task in Latin America. |
| Keywords: | economic development, industrialisation, income inequality, Latin America |
| JEL: | O10 N1 O15 O54 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0244&r=his |
| By: | Ritschl, Albrecht |
| JEL: | N14 N40 O10 |
| Date: | 2023–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120797&r=his |
| By: | Tatyana Deryugina; Julian Reif |
| Abstract: | Many environmental hazards produce health effects that take years to arise, but quasi-experimental studies typically measure outcomes and treatment over short time periods. We develop a new approach to overcome this challenge and use it to gauge the effect of exposure to air pollution on US life expectancy. Using changes in wind direction as an instrument for daily sulfur dioxide levels, we first characterize the short-run mortality effects of acute exposure during the time period 1972-1988. Exposure causes two distinct mortality patterns: a short-run mortality displacement effect, and a persistent accelerated aging effect. We then incorporate our estimates into a flexible health production model to quantify the lifelong effects of chronic air pollution exposure for a cohort born in 1972. Model calculations of the effect of chronic exposure on life expectancy are 7-8 times larger than the effect implied by simple extrapolation of our short-run empirical estimates. Ninety percent of the survival benefits accrue after the first fifty years of life, implying that most of the 1970 Clean Air Act's health benefits have yet to emerge for cohorts born after its passage. |
| JEL: | I18 Q53 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31858&r=his |
| By: | Michael D. Bordo; Edward Simpson Prescott |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the decentralized structure of the Federal Reserve System as a mechanism for generating and processing new ideas on monetary policy over the 1960 - 2000 period. We document the introduction of monetarism, rational expectations, credibility, transparency, and other monetary policy ideas by Reserve Banks into the Federal Reserve System. We argue that the Reserve Banks were willing to support and develop new ideas due to internal reforms to the FOMC that Chairman William McChesney Martin implemented in the 1950s and the increased ties with academia that developed in this period. Furthermore, the Reserve Banks were able to succeed at this because of their private-public governance structure. We illustrate this with a time-consistency model in which a decentralized organization is better at producing new ideas than a centralized one. We argue that this role of the Reserve Banks is an important benefit of the Federal Reserve’s decentralized structure by allowing for more competition in formulating ideas and by reducing groupthink. |
| Keywords: | Federal Reserve System; monetary policy; governance; time consistency |
| JEL: | B0 E58 G28 H1 |
| Date: | 2023–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:97331&r=his |
| By: | Montse Gomendi0 |
| Abstract: | The information provided by international surveys is essential to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the Spanish education system, since one of its unique features is the lack of national standardized evaluations. Historically, Spain has lagged behind most other European countries in terms of the rate of expansion of the education system, the increase in years of schooling and the lengthening of compulsory education. When convergence was eventually achieved, Spain continued to focus its efforts on increasing access to tertiary education and pre-school, to the extent that it has surpassed most European countries in these quantitative targets. Unfortunately, much effort has been placed on inputs with little regard for outcomes. |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2023-35&r=his |
| By: | Andrea M. Flores; George-Levi Gayle; Andrés Hincapié |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of job-protected leave policies on intergenerational mobility, long-run child outcomes, and parental decisions (labor market, investments in children, and fertility). We merge rich sources of historical information on family leave policies across the United States since 1973 with over 40 years of survey data covering two generations of individuals. Exploiting variation in the timing of job-protected leave policies introduced in a large set of 18 states and the District of Columbia before the enactment of the Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA) in 1993, we find that the pre-FMLA protected leave policies had a level effect and a mobility effect. The level effect yields from overall improvements in education and wages for the children born under these policies. The mobility effect, chiefly an increase in intergenerational mobility in education, stems from heterogeneity in the effects of the policies: children of mothers with fewer years of education benefit more. As a potential mechanism, we find that the policies increased mothers’ time investments in children and the likelihood of the households having childcare expenses. Finally, consistent with the tradeoffs of policy design, we find that the policies exacerbated the motherhood penalty in labor market outcomes and that they affected fertility choices, increasing the likelihood of having a first child and decreasing the likelihood of having subsequent children. |
| JEL: | I24 I38 J13 J22 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31911&r=his |
| By: | Khan, Sarah; Seltzer, Andrew J. |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the Pakistani Taliban's terror campaign against girls' education in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. We measure individual exposure to terror using the time and location of attacks against schools. The evidence suggests that the impact of the campaign was limited. We find limited evidence of reduced enrolment in response to terror, except during a 21-month period when the Taliban controlled the district of Swat. Where we do find evidence of reduced enrolment, it's generally small and diminishes over time. We also find no evidence of increased enrolment in religious schools, which were not targeted by the Taliban. |
| Keywords: | education; terrorism; Pakistan |
| JEL: | O15 I20 D74 O53 N15 |
| Date: | 2023–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:120987&r=his |
| By: | Barr, Nicholas |
| Abstract: | Introduction: This paper sets out a brief history of World Bank involvement in pensions. Section 1 considers the period 1980–2000, and in particular a major pension reform in Chile in 1981 and the World Bank’s support for that approach, discussing the reforms and how well, or otherwise, they performed. Section 2 explains increasing diversity of views within the World Bank, and section 3 the more balanced view of recent years. Objective: The main goal of the presented article is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the evolution and controversies surrounding individual funded pension accounts, with a primary focus on the Chilean model and its global impact. The article aims to critically examine the historical context, the World Bank’s role, internal and external debates, and recent developments in pension policy. Ultimately, it seeks to foster a more balanced understanding of pension systems, acknowledging their complexities, objectives beyond consumption smoothing, and the need for responsive policy adjustments in the face of real-world challenges. Materials and methods: The analysis is based on historical and policy documents, literature review, comparative analysis, qualitative assessments, and policy evaluation. Results: The main conclusion of the article is that the widespread adoption of individual funded pension accounts, as championed by the World Bank and initially implemented in Chile, has faced significant challenges and limitations. While these accounts were promoted as a panacea for pension reform challenges, the article argues that they have not lived up to their promises. Issues such as incomplete coverage, inadequate pensions, high administrative charges, gender inequality, and fiscal transition costs have raised concerns. The article also highlights a shift in recent years toward a more balanced and comprehensive approach to pension policy, emphasizing the importance of addressing poverty relief and broader social protection objectives. |
| Keywords: | funded pensions; pension reform in Chile; pension schemes; the old age crisis; World Bank |
| JEL: | J1 F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2023–10–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120836&r=his |
| By: | Mr. Cian Allen; Deepali Gautam; Luciana Juvenal |
| Abstract: | This paper assembles a comprehensive dataset of the currency composition of countries’ external balance sheets for 50 economies over the period 1990–2020. We document the following findings: (i) the US dollar and the euro still dominate global external balance sheets; (ii) there were striking changes in the currency composition across countries since the 1990s, with many emerging markets having moved from short to long positions in foreign currency, thus moving away from the so-called “original sin”; (iii) financial and tradeweighted exchange rates are weakly correlated, suggesting the commonly used trade indices do not adequately reflect the wealth effects of currency movements, and (iv) the large wealth transfers across countries during COVID-19 and the global financial crises increased global imbalances in the former, and reduced them in the latter. |
| Keywords: | currency composition; international investment position; foreign currency exposure |
| Date: | 2023–11–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/237&r=his |
| By: | Diodato, Dario; Hausmann, Ricardo; Schetter, Ulrich |
| JEL: | F43 O11 O14 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc23:277594&r=his |
| By: | Stefania Albanesi |
| Abstract: | Employment and participation rates for US prime age women rose steadily during the second half of the 20th century. In the last 30 years, however, those rates stagnated, even as employment and participation rates for women in other industrialized countries continued to rise. I discuss the role of changes in the earnings structure and persistent institutional barriers, such as limited investment in family policies, that may be holding back employment among American women today. The COVID-19 pandemic reduced employment more for women than for men and raised the barriers to female participation due to the increase in childcare responsibilities during this period. Yet, the diffusion of remote and hybrid work arrangements in its aftermath may be beneficial for women's participation in the long run, even if both men's and women's post-pandemic employment growth so far are strongly associated with access to remote work options. |
| JEL: | E20 E6 H2 H31 H4 H52 J16 J21 J22 J30 J31 J33 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31916&r=his |