nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2023‒11‒20
forty-one papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo, Northumbria University

  1. Epidemics and pandemics: from the Justinianic Plague to the Spanish Flu By Alfani, Guido
  2. Socioeconomic status and group belonging: evidence from early-nineteenth-century colonial West Africa By Galli, Stefania
  3. The Effect of Mechanisation on Labour: Evidence from the Diffusion of Steam By Ridolfi, Leonardo; Salvo, Carla; Weisdorf, Jacob
  4. "Japanese War Economy from Micro-perspectives:Design and Function of Economic Controls, and Innovation of Production Process" By Tetsuji Okazaki
  5. Industrial Policy and the Great Divergence By Réka Juhász; Claudia Steinwender
  6. Immigration and Nationalism in the Long Run By Valentin Lang; Stephan A. Schneider
  7. Late 19th and Early 20th Century Urban Net Nutrition by Gender and Race By Scott Alan Carson; Scott A. Carson
  8. Evaluating policy institutions -150 years of US monetary policy- By Régis Barnichon; Geert Mesters
  9. European Business Cycles and Economic Growth, 1300-2000 By Broadberry, Stephen; Lennard, Jason
  10. Review of Jon D. Erickson, The Progress Illusion: Reclaiming Our Future from the Fairytale of Economics, Washington, DC: Island Press, 2022, xx + 252 pp., hb, ISBN 978-1-64-283252-5 By Alexandru Pătruți
  11. Economic Development and the Evolution of Mortality By B. Ravikumar; Amy Smaldone
  12. Industrial policy and the great divergence By Reka Juhasz; Claudia Steinwender
  13. Railways and the European Fertility Transition By Ciccarelli, Carlo; Fenske, James; Martí Henneberg, Jordi
  14. Scars of war: the legacy of WW1 deaths on civic capital and combat motivation By Felipe Carozzi; Edward W. Pinchbeck; Luca Repetto
  15. “Compensate the Losers?” Economic Policy and Partisan Realignment in the US By Ilyana Kuziemko; Nicolas Longuet Marx; Suresh Naidu
  16. Local institutions and pandemics: city autonomy and the Black Death By Wang, Han; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés
  17. Migratory chains in the configuration of mining communities in Spain in the 19th century: Linares By Andrés Sánchez Picón; Victor Antonio Luque de Haro; María del Carmen Pérez Artés; María José Mora Mayoral
  18. Religion and Growth By Becker, Sascha O.; Rubin, Jared; Woessmann, Ludger
  19. From the Death of God to the Rise of Hitler By Becker, Sascha O.; Voth, Hans-Joachim
  20. International Mobility of Inventors and Innovation: Empirical Evidence from the Collapse of the Soviet Union By Gaetan de Rassenfosse; Gabriele Pellegrino
  21. Wars and the Labor Market Outcomes of Minorities in the U.S. By Andreas Ferrara
  22. Schooling over Time and across Countries By Guillaume Vandenbroucke
  23. Family change in Latin America: schooling and labor market implications for children and women By Esteve, Albert; Becca, Federica; Castro, Andrés
  24. Spatial wage inequality in North America and Western Europe: changes between and within local labour markets 1975-2019 By Luis Bauluz; Sebastien Breau; Pawel Bukowski; Mark Fransham; Annie Seong Lee; Neil Lee; Margarita Lopez Forero; Clement Malgouyres; Filip Novokmet; Moritz Schularick; Gregory Verdugo
  25. Boisguilbert's use of political arithmetic to denounce the illusions and the disorder of the reign of Louis XIV. By Jean Daniel BOYER
  26. Gauging the Fed’s Current Tightening Actions: A Historical Perspective By Kevin L. Kliesen
  27. Public Infrastructure and Regional Resilience: Evidence from the 1918 Spanish Flu in Germany By Mona Foertsch; Felix Roesel
  28. Missing females: how many, where, when, causes and consequences By Enrique Llopis Agelan
  29. The birth of (a robust) Arbitrage Theory in de Finetti's early contributions By Marco Maggis
  31. Gender Inequalities: Progress and Challenges. By Romane Frecheville-Faucon; Magali Jaoul-Grammare; Faustine Perrin
  32. The determinants of child stunting and shifts in the growth pattern of children: a long-run, global review By Schneider, Eric B.
  33. On the Trends of Technology, Family Formation, and Women's Time Allocation By KITAO Sagiri; NAKAKUNI Kanato
  34. Another View on Growth Matters: Investment, Capital, and Solow Residual By Ikonomou, Constantinos
  35. On the Trends of Technology, Family Formation, and Women’s Time Allocation By Sagiri Kitao; Kanato Nakakuni
  36. Unified Merger List in the Container Shipping Industry from 1966: A Structural Estimation of the Transition of Importance of a Firm's Age, Tonnage Capacity, and Geographical Proximity on Merger Decision By Suguru Otani; Takuma Matsuda
  37. Long-run stability of money demand and monetary policy: The case of Algeria By Raouf Boucekkine; Mohammed Laksaci; Mohamed Touati-Tliba
  38. Unit Cost of Financial Intermediation in Japan, 1954 - 2020 By GUNJI Hiroshi; ONO Arito; SHIZUME Masato; UCHIDA Hirofumi; YASUDA Yukihiro
  39. An Extended Goodwin Model with Endogenous Technical Change: Theory and Simulation for the US Economy (1960-2019) By Cajas Guijarro, John
  40. Planes de estabilización: Evidencia de América Latina By Rapetti, Martin; Palazzo, Gabriel; Waldman, Joaquin
  41. Unveiling the critical role of forest areas amidst climate change: The Latin American case By Juan David Alonso-Sanabria; Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia; Daniel Parra-Amado

  1. By: Alfani, Guido (Bocconi University)
    Abstract: This article provides an overview of current knowledge about the economic consequences of major epidemics and pandemics in the long run of history, from the Justinianic Plague of the 540s to the Spanish Flu of 1918-19. For the preindustrial period, the analysis concentrates on plagues (and particularly on the Black Death pandemic of the fourteenth century and on the last great European plagues of the seventeenth), which stand out in the comparison with other epidemics both because of their outsized economic and demographic effects, and for having concentrated the attention of economic historians and other social scientists. For the industrial period, cholera is taken as the main pandemic threat of the nineteenth century. The article concludes analyzing the Spanish Flu, which made the world aware of the danger posed by the influenza viruses – and which is arguably the best term of comparison with the recent Covid-19 pandemic, due to some epidemiological similarities. The article illustrates the short, medium and long-run consequences of the various epidemics and pandemics discussed, and also highlights the importance of the historical context in mediating the impact of any epidemic, against tendencies to generalize from some well-known, but possibly exceptional, cases such as the Black Death. This and other findings teach us some useful lessons for understanding better recent pandemics, like Covid-19, and might help to build preparedness against future threats of a similar kind.
    Keywords: epidemics; pandemics; health threats; plague; cholera; influenza; Covid-19; Black Death; Spanish Flu; health inequality JEL Classification:
    Date: 2023
  2. By: Galli, Stefania
    Abstract: This study provides a novel analysis of occupational stratification in Sierra Leone from a historical perspective. By employing census data for early-nineteenth-century colonial Sierra Leone, the present study offers a valuable snapshot of a colony characterized by a heterogenous population of indigenous and migratory origin. The study shows that an association between colonial group categorization and socioeconomic status existed despite the colony being of very recent foundation implying a hierarchical structure of the society. Although Europeans and "mulattoes"occupied most high-status positions, as common in the colonies, indigenous immigrants were also represented in high socioeconomic strata thanks to the opportunities stemming from long- and short-distance trading. However, later arrivals, especially liberated slaves, belonged within the lowest socioeconomic strata of the society and worked as farmers or unskilled labor, suggesting that the time component may also have influence socioeconomic opportunities.
    Keywords: colonialism; occupational structure; Sierra Leone; social-stratification; West Africa
    JEL: N37
    Date: 2022–06–01
  3. By: Ridolfi, Leonardo (University of Siena); Salvo, Carla (Sapienza University of Rome); Weisdorf, Jacob (Sapienza University of Rome, CAGE, & CEPR)
    Abstract: We use the two earliest industrial censuses from 19th-century France to investigate the impact on industrial labour of one of the largest waves of mechanisation in history, the diffusion of steam power. We establish using OLS and IV analyses that wages and employment both grew significantly more among steam-adopting industries compared to their non-adopting peers. Growth in total revenue was also significantly higher among steam adopters while labour’s share did not change significantly compared to nonadopters. These findings dispute the common view that the historical modernisation of industry set labour back in absolute terms or relative to capitalists.
    Keywords: Capitalists, industrialisation, inequality, labour, mechanisation, productivity, technological progress, wages JEL Classification: I15, J42, J31, L92, O14, O33
    Date: 2023
  4. By: Tetsuji Okazaki (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo)
    Abstract: This paper summarizes the author’s recent three papers on the Japanese war economy from the late 1930s to the early 1940s. Under the war, Japan experienced a transition from a market economy to a planned and controlled economy. This transition was a process of trial and error, and various schemes of economic controls were applied. T his paper explains how these schemes worked, focusing on that for fund allocation restricting fund flow to the “nonessential and nonurgent†industries, that for promoting export by linking foreign exchange allocation with export performance, and that for mass production of merchant ships.
    Date: 2023–11
  5. By: Réka Juhász; Claudia Steinwender
    Abstract: We discuss recent work evaluating the role of the government in shaping the economy during the long 19th century, a practice we refer to as industrial policy. We show that states deployed a vast variety of different policies aimed at, primarily, but not exclusively, fostering industrialization. We discuss the thin, but growing literature that evaluates the economic effects of these policies. We highlight some fruitful avenues for future study.
    Keywords: industrial policy, first wave of globalization, industrialization, infant industry protection, technology policy, transport infrastructure, telegraph, 19th century
    JEL: L50 N10 N40 N60
    Date: 2023
  6. By: Valentin Lang (Universität Mannheim, Germany); Stephan A. Schneider (KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, Switzerland)
    Abstract: During recent immigration waves, nationalist parties increased their vote shares in many countries, but the political backlash against immigration in some regions was much stronger than in others. We examine whether past experience with migrant inflows shapes voters' reactions to current immigration waves. Our study is based on a natural experiment from Germany, where a short-term and demonstrably arbitrary drawing of occupation zones entailed a discontinuous distribution of forced migrants after World War II. Combining historical migration and election records in a 1949-2021 panel at the municipality level, we exploit these differences in a spatial fuzzy regression discontinuity design. Our results show a substantially weaker nationalist backlash against current immigration in regions that received more forced migrants in the past. Current immigration levels activate and mute this effect of exposure to immigration in the past over a period of at least 70 years.
    Keywords: Migration, Nationalism, Persistence, Voting Behavior
    JEL: D72 O15
    Date: 2022–08
  7. By: Scott Alan Carson; Scott A. Carson
    Abstract: Individuals urbanize when the net benefits to urbanization exceed rural living conditions. Body mass, height, and weight are welfare measures that reflect the net difference between calories consumed and calories required for work and to withstand the physical environment. Nineteenth and early 20th century US urban residents had lower BMIs, were shorter, with lower weights than rural residents. Urban net nutrition varied by race, and urban whites and blacks had lower BMIs, shorter statures, and lower weights compared to their rural counterparts. Urban male net nutrition experienced greater variation than urban females, and urban females may not have been affected as much as males by urbanization.
    Keywords: urbanization, stature variation, cumulative net nutrition, nativity, race
    JEL: C10 C40 D10 I10 N30
    Date: 2023
  8. By: Régis Barnichon; Geert Mesters
    Abstract: How should we evaluate and compare the performances of policy institutions? We propose to evaluate institutions based on their reaction function, i.e., on how well they reacted to the different shocks that hit the economy. We show that reaction function evaluation is possible with only two sufficient statistics (i) the impulse responses of the policy objectives to non-policy shocks, which capture what an institution did on average to counteract these shocks, and (ii) the impulse responses of the policy objectives to policy shocks, which capture what an institution could have done to counteract the shocks. A regression of (i) on (ii) —a regression in impulse response space— allows to compute the distance to the optimal reaction function, and thereby evaluate and rank institutions. We use our methodology to evaluate US monetary policy; from the Gold standard period, the early Fed years and the Great Depression, to the post World War II period, and the post-Volcker regime. We find no material improvement in the reaction function over the first 100 years, and it is only in the last 30 years that we estimate large and uniform improvements in the conduct of monetary policy.
    Keywords: optimal policy, reaction function, structural shocks, impulse responses, monetary history
    JEL: C14 C32 E32 E52 N10
    Date: 2023–10
  9. By: Broadberry, Stephen (Nuffield College, Oxford); Lennard, Jason (London School of Economics)
    Abstract: The modern business cycle features long expansions combined with short recessions, and is thus related to the emergence of sustained economic growth. It also features significant international co-movement, and is therefore associated with growing market integration and globalisation. When did these patterns first appear? This paper explores the changing nature of the business cycle using historical national accounts for nine European economies between 1300 and 2000. For the sample as a whole, the modern business cycle emerged at the end of the eighteenth century.
    Keywords: Business cycle; economic growth; Europe JEL Classification: N10, E32, O47
    Date: 2023
  10. By: Alexandru Pătruți (A.S.E. - The Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies / Academia de Studii Economice din Bucureşti)
    Abstract: The task of describing Professor Erickson's book is not simple. Progress Illusion is a combination of economic history, economic thought, autobiography, and revolutionary prose. In addition, the author uses a dynamic style and fresh language, which makes it accessible to readers who are not trained in economics.
    Date: 2023
  11. By: B. Ravikumar; Amy Smaldone
    Abstract: Since 1960, the gap in GDP per capita between rich and poor countries has remained wide. Yet the gap in death rates has practically vanished during that period.
    Keywords: death rates; mortality; rich countries; poor countries; economic development; gross domestic product (GDP) per capita
    Date: 2023–10–02
  12. By: Reka Juhasz; Claudia Steinwender
    Abstract: We discuss recent work evaluating the role of the government in shaping the economy during the long 19th century, a practice we refer to as industrial policy. We show that states deployed a vast variety of different policies aimed at, primarily, but not exclusively, fostering industrialization. We discuss the thin, but growing literature that evaluates the economic effects of these policies. We highlight some fruitful avenues for future study.
    Keywords: industrial policy, first wave of globalization, industrialization, infant industry protection, technology policy, transport infrastructure, telegraph, 19th century
    Date: 2023–10–06
  13. By: Ciccarelli, Carlo (University of Rome Tor Vegata); Fenske, James (University of Warwick and CAGE); Martí Henneberg, Jordi (Universitat de Lleida)
    Abstract: We show that the spread of the railway network slowed the decline of fertility in Europe during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. We construct novel data on market access across sub-national regions in Europe and use both a panel fixed effects approach and an instrumental variables strategy that leverages variation in market access stemming from access to distant markets. We find that greater market access predicts higher fertility, with a standardized magnitude of 0.14. Consistent with an interpretation that market access increased fertility by raising incomes relative to the returns to child quality and the opportunity cost of childbearing, we show that our results are driven by locations that achieved higher levels of income per capita despite lagging in human capital and female labor force participation.
    Keywords: Economic History JEL Classification:
    Date: 2023
  14. By: Felipe Carozzi; Edward W. Pinchbeck; Luca Repetto
    Abstract: What drives soldiers to risk their life in combat? We show that the legacy of war creates lasting conditions that encourage younger generations to take greater risks when fighting for their country. Using individual-level data from over 4 million British war records, we show that WWI deaths deeply affected local communities and the behaviour of the next generation of soldiers. Servicemen from localities that suffered heavier losses in WWI were more likely to die or to be awarded military honours for bravery in WW2. To explain these findings, we document that WWI deaths promoted civic capital in the inter-war period - as demonstrated by the creation of lasting war memorials, veterans' associations and charities, and increased voter participation. In addition, we show that sons of soldiers killed in WWI were more likely to die in combat, suggesting that both community-level and family-level transmission of values were important in this context.
    Keywords: world war, combat motivation, conflict, civic capital, memory
    Date: 2023–08–01
  15. By: Ilyana Kuziemko; Nicolas Longuet Marx; Suresh Naidu
    Abstract: We argue that the Democratic Party’s evolution on economic policy helps explain partisan realignment by education. We show that less-educated Americans differentially demand “predistribution” policies (e.g., a federal jobs guarantee, higher minimum wages, protectionism, and stronger unions), while more-educated Americans differentially favor redistribution (taxes and transfers). This educational gradient in policy preferences has been largely unchanged since the 1940s. We then show the Democrats’ supply of predistribution has declined since the 1970s. We tie this decline to the rise of a self-described “New Democrat” party faction who court more educated voters and are explicitly skeptical of predistribution. Consistent with this faction’s growing influence, we document the significant growth of donations from highly educated donors, especially from out-of-district donors, who play an increasingly important role in Democratic (especially “New Democrat”) primary campaigns relative to Republican primaries. In response to these within-party changes in power, less-educated Americans began to leave the Democratic Party in the 1970s, after decades of serving as the party’s base. Roughly half of the total shift can be explained by their changing views of the parties’ economic policies. We also show that in the crucial transition period of the 1970s and 1980s, New Democrat-aligned candidates draw disproportionately from more-educated voters in both survey questions and actual Congressional elections.
    JEL: H20 J0 P0
    Date: 2023–10
  16. By: Wang, Han; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés
    Abstract: Local institutions have long been regarded as key drivers of economic development. However, little is known about the role of institutions in preparing places to cope with public health crises and pandemics. This paper sheds light on how the nature of a local institution, city autonomy, influenced variations in the incidence of the Black Death —possibly the worst pandemic ever recorded— across cities in Western Europe between 1347 and 1352. We examine urban autonomy not only because it represented a major political shift in medieval times, but because, more importantly, it also represents a key prototype of modern political institution. By exploiting data on the spatial variation of Black Death's mortality rates and duration using OLS and 2SLS methods, we uncover that city autonomy reduced mortality rates by, on average, almost 10 percent. Autonomous cities were in a better position to adopt swift and efficient measures against the pandemic than those governed by remote kings and emperors. This relationship has been confirmed by a series of placebo tests and robustness checks. In contrast, there is no evidence to suggest that city autonomy was a factor in reducing the duration of the pandemic in European cities.
    Keywords: local institutions; pandemics; city autonomy; Black Death; Europe
    JEL: N43 N93 O17
    Date: 2021–11–01
  17. By: Andrés Sánchez Picón (Universidad de Almería, Departamento de Economía y Empresa. Centro de Investigación Mediterráneo de Economía y Desarrollo Sostenible (CIMEDES), Almería, Spain.); Victor Antonio Luque de Haro (Universidad de Almería, Departamento de Economía y Empresa. Centro de Investigación Mediterráneo de Economía y Desarrollo Sostenible (CIMEDES), Almería, Spain.); María del Carmen Pérez Artés (Universidad de Almería, Departamento de Economía y Empresa. Centro de Investigación Mediterráneo de Economía y Desarrollo Sostenible (CIMEDES), Almería, Spain.); María José Mora Mayoral (Universidad de Almería, Departamento de Economía y Empresa. Centro de Investigación Mediterráneo de Economía y Desarrollo Sostenible (CIMEDES), Almería, Spain.)
    Abstract: This research examines the migration in Linares during the third quarter of the 19th century, with a focus on migratory chains. Linares was among the Spanish cities that received the highest influx of immigrants during the mining boom, resulting in a population increase of nearly six times within 30 years. Using the population register of the city in 1873 as the primary source, which consisted of more than 22, 500 individuals, this study confirms the usefulness of the migratory chains approach for analyzing internal migrations in both the pre-industrial era and the early stages of industrialization. Thereby, it is proven that social capital had a considerable impact on determining migratory flows to Linares. The impact of the migrants' places of origin on the spatial distribution of the migrant population and their occupational specialisation in the destination city is significant. This outcome highlights how migratory chains have facilitated the provision of information and the reduction of costs associated with searching for housing and employment.
    Keywords: Migratory chains, Internal migrations, Spain, Linares
    JEL: R23 N33 N53 O15
    Date: 2023–11
  18. By: Becker, Sascha O. (Monash University and University of Warwick; CAGE, CEH@ANU, CEPR, CESifo, CReAM, IZA, ROA, Rockwool Foundation Berlin, and SoDa Labs); Rubin, Jared (Chapman University); Woessmann, Ludger (University of Munich, IFO Institute; Hoover Institution, Stanford University; CESifo, IZA, and CAGE)
    Abstract: We use the elements of a macroeconomic production function—physical capital, human capital, labor, and technology—together with standard growth models to frame the role of religion in economic growth. Unifying a growing literature, we argue that religion can enhance or impinge upon economic growth through all four elements because it shapes individual preferences, societal norms, and institutions. Religion affects physical capital accumulation by influencing thrift and financial development. It affects human capital through both religious and secular education. It affects population and labor by influencing work effort, fertility, and the demographic transition. And it affects total factor productivity by constraining or unleashing technological change and through rituals, legal institutions, political economy, and conflict. Synthesizing a disjoint literature in this way opens many interesting directions for future research.
    Keywords: religion, growth, Christianity, Judaism, Islam, preferences, norms, institutions, capital, saving, financial development, human capital, education, population, labor, demography, fertility, total factor productivity, technological change, rituals, political economy, conflict JEL Classification: Z12, O40, N30, I25, O15
    Date: 2023
  19. By: Becker, Sascha O. (Monash University and University of Warwick; CAGE, CEH@ANU, CEPR, CESifo, CReAM, IZA, ROA, Rockwool Foundation Berlin, and SoDa Labs); Voth, Hans-Joachim (University of Zurich, UBS Center for Economics in Society, CAGE and CEPR)
    Abstract: Can weakened religiosity lead to the rise of totalitarianism? The Nazi Party set itself up as a political religion, emphasizing redemption, sacrifice, rituals, and communal spirit. This had a major impact on its success: Where the Christian Church only had shallow roots, the Nazis received higher electoral support and saw more party entry. "Shallow Christianity" reflects the geography of medieval Christianization and the strength of pagan practices, which we use as sources of exogenous variation. We also find predictive power at the individual level: Within each municipality, the likelihood of joining the Nazi Party was higher for those with less Christian first names.
    Keywords: Political Religion; Behavioral Political Economy; Voting; Nazi Party; Protestantism; Shallow Christianity; Political Religion; Paganism JEL Classification: N13, N14, N44, P16, Z12, Z18
    Date: 2023
  20. By: Gaetan de Rassenfosse (Ecole polytechnique federale de Lausanne); Gabriele Pellegrino (Catholic University of Milan)
    Abstract: This paper assesses the extent to which the international migration of inventors affects innovation in the receiving country. Drawing on a novel database that maps the migratory patterns of inventors, we exploit the end of the Soviet Union and the consequent post-1992 influx of ex-Soviet inventors to the United States. Econometric analysis on a panel of U.S. cities and technological fields shows that the patenting activity of U.S. inventors increased significantly after the arrival of ex-Soviet Union inventors.
    Keywords: geographic mobility; innovation; inventors; patents
    JEL: O31 O34 O51 J61
    Date: 2023–10
  21. By: Andreas Ferrara (University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, and NBER)
    Abstract: This chapter reviews key literature studying the effects of wars on minority and underrepresented groups in U.S. labor markets in the 20th century. These labor markets, characterized by historically pervasive barriers to entry into certain occupations and industries, promotions, and fair pay for underrepresented workers, experienced severe challenges during times of war. These challenges served to break down some of the barriers faced by underrepresented workers. Recent years have shown that sudden labor shortages, similar to those induced by large-scale wars, are not a feature of the past. Hence, a better understanding of such shortages and their effects on different groups continues to be important, especially since opportunities and equality in the labor market are closely intertwined with political, legal, and socioeconomic equality. The focus here is on the labor market outcomes of Black and white women, as well as Black men, during and after the two World Wars. Their labor inputs compensated for the lack of white male workers during the war years; however, only WWII generated significant and more prolonged socioeconomic progress for both groups. This chapter summarizes theoretical considerations that can explain why some war-induced labor market shocks are persistent while others are not, as well as the empirical literature related to the labor market experiences of women and Black workers during and after the World Wars.
    Keywords: Labor markets; World War I; World War II; Women; Black Americans JEL Classification: N42, J15, J16, J82, H56
    Date: 2023
  22. By: Guillaume Vandenbroucke
    Abstract: An analysis of three rich and three poor countries found that countries where schooling grew faster also had less economic growth from 1960-2010.
    Keywords: rich countries; poor countries; schooling; economic growth
    Date: 2023–10–05
  23. By: Esteve, Albert; Becca, Federica; Castro, Andrés
    Abstract: This chapter provides an account of the major family transformations that occurred in recent decades across Latin American and Caribbean countries and examines the implications of such transformations for children’s school attendance and progress and women’s labor force participation. Latin American and Caribbean families and households have undergone substantial changes in recent years while keeping some of their distinctive features unchanged (Esteve et al., 2022; Esteve & Florez-Paredes, 2018a; Juárez & Gayet, 2014). This combination of stability and change has had profound transformations in the family status in which women raise their children and the family context in which children are raised. We refer to family context as the combination of women`s marital status and the type of households in which children reside. We combine references to the literature and own calculations based on Latin American and Caribbean population census samples, available at the Integrated Public-use Microdata Series International (IPUMS) (Minnesota Population Center, 2020). We use data from 25 countries based on the most recent census microdata and, in some instances, historical samples starting in the late 1950s (see Appendix 1).
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2023–10–16
  24. By: Luis Bauluz; Sebastien Breau; Pawel Bukowski; Mark Fransham; Annie Seong Lee; Neil Lee; Margarita Lopez Forero; Clement Malgouyres; Filip Novokmet; Moritz Schularick; Gregory Verdugo
    Abstract: The rise of economic inequalities in advanced economies has been often linked with the growth of spatial inequalities within countries, yet there is limited comparative research that studies the relationship between national and subnational economic inequality. This paper presents the first systematic attempt to create internationally comparable evidence showing how different countries perform in terms of geographic wage inequalities. We create cross-country comparable measures of spatial wage disparities between and within similarly-defined local labour market areas (LLMAs) for Canada, France, (West) Germany, the UK and the US since the 1970s, and assess their contribution to national inequality. By the end of the 2010s, spatial inequalities in LLMA mean wages are similar in Canada, France, Germany and the UK; the US exhibits the highest degree of spatial inequality. Over the study period, spatial inequalities have nearly doubled in all countries, except for France where spatial inequalities have fallen back to 1970s levels. Due to a concomitant increase in within-place inequality, the contribution of places in explaining national wage inequality has remained fairly constant over the 40-year study period, except in the UK where we document a significant increase. Whilst common global social, economic and technological shocks are important drivers of spatial inequality, this variation in levels and trends of spatial inequality opens the way to comparative research exploring the role of national institutions in mediating how global shocks translate into economic disparities between places.
    Keywords: regional inequality, wage inequality, local labour markets
    Date: 2023–08–16
  25. By: Jean Daniel BOYER
    Abstract: In this article we show that Boisguilbert could be considered a forerunner of the employment of quantitative analysis in economics. To ground our analysis, we examine Boisguilbert’s possible links with British political arithmetic and set out the influence this may have had on his thought and on his estimations of the wealth of the kingdom of France and the income of the king. Reconstructing the data Boisguilbert uses, we also show that his analysis of public revenues and good price is grounded on the distinction he makes between current and constant prices. On this basis, echoing Gramont’s analysis (1620), Boisguilbert seeks to reveal the monetary illusion to which he perceived his contemporaries as having fallen victim. Against popular opinion, Boisguilbert estimates that while the current revenues of Louis XIV have increased, his real revenues have in fact decreased. This proves that the French tax system is highly imperfect. According to his estimations, the real price of grain is also disproportionate: far from being too high, it is in fact half what it should be. We thus see Boisguilbert using quantitative analysis to identify the causes of the ruin of the kingdom of France, to dissipate the illusions of his contemporaries, and to propose ways of restoring the good order.
    Keywords: Boisguilbert, crisis, Gramont, monetary illusion, order, proportion, Petty, political arithmetic, quantitative analysis, wealth.
    JEL: B11 E02 E21 E31
    Date: 2023
  26. By: Kevin L. Kliesen
    Abstract: In 2022, the Fed started its current tightening cycle. How does it compare with other cycles in the past 40 years in terms of the magnitude of policy rate hikes?
    Keywords: monetary policy tightening; policy rate
    Date: 2023–08–15
  27. By: Mona Foertsch; Felix Roesel
    Abstract: Can public infrastructure help regions to mitigate large shocks? We examine how hospital infrastructure contributes to regional resilience in the event of serious health emergencies. During the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, four out of every 1, 000 Germans died. We find lower influenza mortality rates and no political reaction in cities and rural areas with adequate hospital infrastructure. In contrast, rural areas without adequate infrastructure absorb shocks poorly, and voters punish the governing parties in the next elections. We conclude that public infrastructure can mitigate large external shocks, especially in rural regions.
    Keywords: public infrastructure, resilience, health shocks, Spanish flu, Germany
    JEL: D72 O18 I10
    Date: 2023
  28. By: Enrique Llopis Agelan (Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain)
    Abstract: The objective of this essay is to explore the present and future figures, geographic distribution, underlying causes, and consequences of the missing females phenomenon. Leveraging data on fertility and sex ratios of international organizations (the United Nations and the World Bank) and employing an analysis of secondary sources, this study draws the following key conclusions: 1) The global number of missing women equaled or exceeded 100 million by 1990 and has continued to rise since then, projected to reach 150 million by 2035; 2) China and India together account for more than 80% of the global missing females; 3) The prevalence of selective abortions of female fetuses surged in societies marked by rigid patrilineal and patrilocal traditions after a decline in fertility rates and the proliferation of ultrasound technology, thereby leading to a reduction in the number of postnatal sex-selective individuals; 4) Eastern Asia has experienced a demographic dividend, yet its economic growth has been hampered in the past decade due to the relative expansion of the dependent population; 5) Skewed sex ratios, that are anticipated to persist, have resulted in a masculinization of the adult population, with a lag of approximately one and a half decades, causing disruptions in the marriage market. This poses a significant threat to social stability in several countries, particularly in China.
    Keywords: China, India, fertility, female feticide, excess female mortality, demographic dividend
    JEL: N3 J1
    Date: 2023–11
  29. By: Marco Maggis
    Abstract: \textit{Il significato soggettivo della probabilit\`a} (1931) by B. de Finetti \cite{deF} is unanimously considered the rise of `subjectivism', a notion which strongly influenced both Probability and Decision Theory. What is less acknowledge is that \cite{deF} posed the foundations of modern arbitrage theory. In this paper we aim at examining how de Finetti's contribution should be considered as the precursor of Asset Pricing Theory and we show how his findings relate to recent developments in Robust Finance.
    Date: 2023–10
  30. By: Manjari Johri
    Abstract: Chokher Bali, (translated as ‘Eyesore’) by Rabindranath Tagore is said to be the first ‘modern’ novel written in India. Though the book was published in 1903, it is modern in its narrative technique, subject matter, and delineation of the protagonist Binodini. Through this paper, I will study the text's historical, geographical, and cultural background. The analysis of the text will engage at the level of society, gender, and history. For this purpose, the novel has been examined through the lens of Cultural Studies to explore Tagore’s depiction of the Indian society that was undergoing social transformation. The study also seeks to determine whether the characters' choices were governed by the cultural and religious practices of the specific time frame within which the narrative has been woven. My goal is to examine the novel as a cultural artefact that is shaped by its context and provides insight into the nuances of the age. Key words: Social reforms, culture, agency, representation, emancipation, identity.
    Date: 2023–09
  31. By: Romane Frecheville-Faucon; Magali Jaoul-Grammare; Faustine Perrin
    Abstract: Gender equality and women’s empowerment are universally recognized as essential for sustainable and prosperous development. This chapter offers a comprehensive overview of gender inequalities prevalent in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, delving into the historical context of such disparities with a particular focus on education. The chapter highlights the strides made through the implementation of legal frameworks and policies. However, despite significant progress, gender inequalities persist, leaving women susceptible to adverse consequences in their daily lives and rendering them more vulnerable to economic shocks. By gaining a comprehensive understanding of gender inequalities and taking active measures to address them, societies could strive towards a more inclusive and egalitarian society and foster sustainable and prosperous developments for all.
    Keywords: Gender; Inequality; Policy; Sustainable Development.
    JEL: B54 I24 J16
    Date: 2023
  32. By: Schneider, Eric B.
    Abstract: This article explores how child growth has changed over the past 150 years and links changes in child growth to the recent decline in child stunting in low and middle income countries (LMICs). The article begins by defining the four characteristics of the growth pattern in height: size at birth, size at adulthood, the timing of the pubertal growth spurt and the speed of maturation. It then shows how these characteristics have changed over time and links these characteristics to child stunting, children who are too short for their age relative to healthy standards, the most common indicator used to measure malnutrition in LMICs today. The article then surveys the literature on the causes of changes in the growth pattern and reductions in child stunting, comparing research on current LMICs with historical research on current high income countries (HICs) in the past. To limit the scope of the contemporary literature, I focus on explanations of the so-called ‘Indian enigma’: why Indian children are shorter than sub-Saharan African children despite India’s lead in many indicators of economic development. The article closes with ideas for what historical and contemporary researchers can learn from one another.
    Keywords: child stunting; growth pattern; living standards; child health; Indian enigma; health transition; Wiley deal
    JEL: I10 J13 J16 O15
    Date: 2023–10–19
  33. By: KITAO Sagiri; NAKAKUNI Kanato
    Abstract: Over the past 50 years, Japan has witnessed a dramatic decline in fertility and marriage rates, along with a rise in educational attainment, particularly among women. Married women now dedicate significantly less time on housework and more time on leisure and childcare. We develop a model that allows for various forms of technological change and relative prices surrounding families, and quantify their roles to account for the trends of family formation and time allocation. We find that neutral productivity growth leads to an increase in leisure time and a decrease in work hours. Technological changes that favor female labor supply and rises in the time and financial costs of childcare are the main factors contributing to the decline in fertility and marriage rates. Skill-biased technological change contributes to the rise in education levels, while advancements of home production technology explain the shift in married women's time allocation from housework to the market work.
    Date: 2023–10
  34. By: Ikonomou, Constantinos
    Abstract: The debate on Solow residual (SR), its extent and significance and the critic against the neoclassical growth equation (NGE) by endogenous and new growth theory (ENGT) have not managed to obliterate the contribution of NGE and of SR to the development of growth accounting and TFP measurement, to the convergence and competitiveness debates, the realization of productivity slowdown in industrialised economies and to real business cycle theory. After the proliferate critic of ENGT against NGE, other critics were left unattended, for example that by Domar on the non-incorporation of intermediate goods in growth equations. Moreover, significant amendments in the calculation of capital by OECD had unveiled its underestimation and, subsequently, TFP overestimation. The contribution of each specific type of investment to capital and subsequently to growth has also been underestimated in growth equations. This was made clearer through DeLong and Summers studies and the distinction between equipment and infrastructure investment but it was also claimed much earlier by the concept of accelerator and the various distinctions of investment types used in economics. The proclaimed “death” of NGE has harmed economic growth studies by contributing in the displacement of decreasing returns and perfect competition from their disciplinary throne. While most economists gregariously espoused such a disciplinary path, this article seeks to refresh economic thinking in growth models, by creating a new growth model that comprises labour -apart from capital- and integrates an additional, aggregate growth component that encapsulates ENGT variables and intermediate inputs. Few but significant implications for growth theory and policy are discussed.
    Keywords: Solow residual Neoclassical Growth Equation Endogenous Growth Theory Capital Equipment Investment Decreasing Returns Perfect Competition Intermediate inputs
    JEL: E1 E22 E23 E32 O1 O4
    Date: 2023–10
  35. By: Sagiri Kitao; Kanato Nakakuni
    Abstract: Over the past 50 years, Japan has witnessed a dramatic decline in fertility and marriage rates, along with a rise in educational attainment, particularly among women. Married women now dedicate significantly less time on housework and more time on leisure and childcare. We develop a model that allows for various forms of technological change and relative prices surrounding families, and quantify their roles to account for the trends of family formation and time allocation. We find that neutral productivity growth leads to an increase in leisure time and a decrease in work hours. Technological changes that favor female labor supply and rises in the time and financial costs of childcare are the main factors contributing to the decline in fertility and marriage rates. Skill-biased technological change contributes to the rise in education levels, while advancements of home production technology explain the shift in married women’s time allocation from housework to the market work.
    Keywords: Fertility, Marriage, Home Production, Women’s Time Allocation, Skill-biased Technological Change, Gender-biased Technological Change, Japan
    JEL: D10 E10 J10 O11
    Date: 2023–10
  36. By: Suguru Otani; Takuma Matsuda
    Abstract: We construct a novel unified merger list in the global container shipping industry between 1966 (the beginning of the industry) and 2022. Combining the list with proprietary data, we construct a structural matching model to describe the historical transition of the importance of a firm's age, size, and geographical proximity on merger decisions. We find that, as a positive factor, a firm's size is more important than a firm's age by 9.974 times as a merger incentive between 1991 and 2005. However, between 2006 and 2022, as a negative factor, a firm's size is more important than a firm's age by 0.026-0.630 times, that is, a firm's size works as a disincentive. We also find that the distance between buyer and seller firms works as a disincentive for the whole period, but the importance has dwindled to economic insignificance in recent years. In counterfactual simulations, we observe that the prohibition of mergers between firms in the same country would affect the merger configuration of not only the firms involved in prohibited mergers but also those involved in permitted mergers.
    Date: 2023–10
  37. By: Raouf Boucekkine (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ESC Rennes School of Business - ESC [Rennes] - ESC Rennes School of Business); Mohammed Laksaci (Ecole Supérieure de Banque); Mohamed Touati-Tliba (ESC - Ecole Supérieure de Commerce d'Alger)
    Abstract: Since the start of the oil counter-shock in June 2014, Algeria has experienced unprecedented twin deficits. The excessive monetisation of the public deficit coupled with other deep anomalies in the economy of this country acutely calls for reconsideration of its monetary policy. To this end a prior study of the long-run stability of money demand is needed. We estimate the demand for money for monetary aggregates M1 and M2, and cash in Algeria over the period 1979–2019, and study its long-run stability. We show that the transaction motive is significant for all three aggregates, especially for the demand for cash, reflecting the weight of informal economy "practices". The elasticity of the scale variable is very close to unity for M2 and M1, and even equal to unity for cash demand (1.006). The elasticity of inflation is also significant for all three aggregates, although its level is higher in the case of cash demand (−6.474). Despite the persistence of certain financial repression mechanisms, interest rate elasticity is significant for all three aggregates, but higher for M1 and cash. The same observation is made for elasticity of the exchange rate, reflecting the effect of monetary substitution, especially for M1 and cash. Finally, our study concludes that the demand for money in terms of M1 remains stable, the same observation being confirmed for the M2 aggregate. However, the demand for fiat currency proves not to be stable. The consequences for the optimal design of monetary policy in Algeria are clearly stated.
    Keywords: Monetary policy, Money demand, Long-run stability, Resource-rich countries, Algeria, Co-integration
    Date: 2021–11
  38. By: GUNJI Hiroshi; ONO Arito; SHIZUME Masato; UCHIDA Hirofumi; YASUDA Yukihiro
    Abstract: This study estimates the unit cost of financial intermediation in Japan over the period 1954‒2020. We measure the cost as the ratio of financial intermediaries’ income (financial income) to the financial output provided to non-financial end-users by integrating hand-collected data from various sources. To measure financial income, we use semi-aggregated data to take into account several income components that are not considered in the financial industry’s value added in the current System of National Accounts. We find that the unit cost of financial intermediation in Japan exhibits a secular decline. No similar decline is observed in the United States, Germany, and United Kingdom, where the unit cost of financial intermediation has been relatively stable over time. The decrease in Japan’s unit cost is due to the stagnation of financial income, even though financial output increased. The stagnation of financial income is due to the absence of growth in asset management services and the decrease in net interest income from loans and deposits.
    Date: 2023–10
  39. By: Cajas Guijarro, John
    Abstract: This paper extends the two-dimensional Goodwin model of distributive cycles by incorporating endogenous technical change, inspired on some insights originally formulated by Marx. We introduce a three-dimensional dynamical system, expanding the model to include wage share, employment rate, and capital-output ratio as state variables. Theoretical analysis demonstrates an economically meaningful and locally stable equilibrium point, and the Hopf bifurcation theorem reveals the emergence of stable limit cycles as the mechanization-productivity elasticity surpasses a critical value. Econometric estimation of model parameters using ARDL bounds cointegration tests is performed for the US economy from 1965 to 2019. Simulations show damped oscillations, limit cycles, and unstable oscillations, contributing to the understanding of complex capitalist dynamics.
    Keywords: Goodwin model, endogenous technical change, Hopf bifurcation, ARDL, numerical simulations
    JEL: C61 E11 E32 O33 O41
    Date: 2023–10–15
  40. By: Rapetti, Martin; Palazzo, Gabriel; Waldman, Joaquin
    Abstract: Chronic inflation has affected Latin America for decades, leading to numerous stabilization attempts. In this article, we develop a novel database with 46 stabilization plans in 13 Latin American countries between 1970-2020, which we classified into three categories: failures, transitory stabilizations, and successful stabilizations. We study which factors have contributed to the plans’ success in lowering inflation. We find that: 1) plans have failed too often; 2) successful plans stabilize the nominal exchange rate (NER); 3) the NER operates as an anchor, decelerating faster than prices; 4) the NER is the instrumental anchor most used; 5) the NER acts as a de facto anchor even when it is not the instrumental anchor; 6) the pre-existence of multiple exchange markets has not prevented stabilization; 7) successful stabilizations begin with higher current account balances; 8) successful stabilizations begin with more robust fiscal accounts; 9) successful stabilizations are preceded by adjustments in external and fiscal accounts; 10) countries correct relative prices before launching a plan; 11) successful stabilizations keep fiscal accounts balanced after the announcement; 12) there are exogenous shocks that can contribute to the failure of a plan; 13) stabilization allows to grow again; 14) the current account balance worsens after the stabilization; 15) transitory stabilizations are interrupted by NER jumps; and 16) many stabilizations end in exchange, financial and sovereign debt crises. The NER plays a key role in stabilization processes in two ways: through its direct impact on tradable prices and through its indirect impact on wage setting and other non-tradable prices. The NER stabilization critically depends on the macroeconomic fundamentals. If the fiscal deficit is high, the NER will eventually depreciate, and the inflation rate will rise. The same will occur if the current account shows a high deficit. The election of the NER as an instrumental anchor depends on the economic situation at the time of the stabilization plan launch. Exchange rate anchors are less frequent when a country has low international reserves and external imbalances. Using the NER as an instrumental anchor implies risks since it accentuates the real appreciation that occurs in any stabilization.
    Keywords: Inflación, Planes de estabilización, Latinoamérica
    JEL: E31 E63 E65 N16
    Date: 2023–08
  41. By: Juan David Alonso-Sanabria; Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia; Daniel Parra-Amado
    Abstract: Although greenhouse gas emissions from the Latin America (LAC) region are not particularly significant, climate change is a worldwide challenge. Hence, we analyze the main factors that increase and mitigate emissions in LAC countries by emphasising the importance of preserving and safeguarding forested regions. To do that, we estimate a Panel Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square model for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, and Peru by using a sample period between 1970 and 2018. We find that an increase of 1% in forested area leads to a reduction of CO2 (Kt per capita) emissions by 0.23 %. From the policy perspective, our findings draw attention towards the promotion of reforestation and afforestation initiatives. Furthermore, these long term policies will hold substantial significance, given the region’s immense potential, with more than a fifth of the world’s forest reserves. **** RESUMEN: Aunque las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero de la región de América Latina (LAC) no son particularmente significativas, el cambio climático es un desafío mundial. En este documento analizamos los principales factores que aumentan y mitigan las emisiones en los países de LAC enfatizando la importancia de preservar y salvaguardar las áreas forestales. Para hacer eso, estimamos un modelo panel de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios completamente modificados para Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, México y Perú utilizando un período de muestra entre 1970 y 2018. Encontramos que un aumento de 1% en el área forestal conduce a una reducción de las emisiones de CO2 (Kt per cápita) en un 0, 23%. Desde la perspectiva de las políticas públicas, nuestros hallazgos llaman la atención hacia la promoción de iniciativas de reforestación y forestación. Además, estas políticas a largo plazo tendrían una importancia sustancial, dado el inmenso potencial de la región, con más de una quinta parte de las reservas forestales del mundo.
    Keywords: CO2 emissions, Forestry, Reforestation, Panel FMOLS, Emisiones de CO2, Áreas forestales, reforestación
    JEL: C33 Q23 Q56 E20
    Date: 2023–10

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