nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2023‒10‒16
thirty-six papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo, Northumbria University

  1. Like Father, Like Child: Intergenerational Mobility in the French Grandes Écoles throughout the 20 th Century By Stéphane Benveniste
  2. The Integration of Migrants in the German Labor Market: Evidence over 50 Years By Paul Berbée; Jan Stuhler
  3. On the Transition to Modern Growth By B. Ravikumar; Guillaume Vandenbroucke
  4. Whispers of Chaos: Intervention on the Mexican Dollar Quotes in Japan, 1869-1885 By Yokoyama, Kazuki
  5. The Rise, Fall, and Legacy of the Structure-Conduct-Performance Paradigm By Panhans, Matthew T.
  6. The International Monetary System and International Financial System as an Analogy to the Copernican Heliocentric system: A simple multi-layers network model with simultaneous regime changes By Michael D. Bordo; Cécile Bastidon
  7. The Twin Deficits, Monetary Instability and Debt Crises in the History of Modern Greece By George Alogoskoufis
  8. A (time) series of unfortunate events: structural change, globalization, and the rise of occupational injuries By A.V. Chari
  9. Domino Secessions: Evidence from the U.S. By Lacroix, Jean; Mitchener, Kris James; Oosterlinck, Kim
  10. Revolution and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Sandinista Revolution By Silano, Filippo
  12. Do you see it this way? Visualising as a tool of sense-making By Boumans, Marcel; Morgan, Mary S.
  13. The Outlook for Long-Term Economic Growth By Charles I. Jones
  14. Economic Consequences of a Regime Change: Overview By Assaf Razin; Efraim Sadka
  15. Economic Warfare : Lessons from Two World Wars By Harrison, Mark
  16. The political theory of global supply chains: Benjamin L. McKean, Disorienting neoliberalism: global justice and the outer limit of freedom. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2020 By McKean, Benjamin L.; Mackinnon, Emma S.; Winters, Joseph R., II; Pineda, Erin R.; Apostolidis, Paul
  17. Declining Oil Production Leads to More Democratic Governments By Jørgen J. Andersen; Jonas H. Hamang; Michael L. Ross
  18. The FOMC's Use of Operational Targets: 85 Years and Counting By Jeff W. Huther; Kevin F. Kiernan; Elizabeth C. Klee; Ethan Rodriguez-Shah
  19. Modeling intervention: The Political element in Barbara Bergmann's micro-to-macro simulation projects By Chassonnery-Zaïgouche, Cléo; Goutsmedt, Aurélien
  20. Unraveling the Factors Behind Women's Empowerment in the Labor Market in Colombia By Ana María Iregui-Bohórquez; Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra; María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo; Ana María Tribín-Uribe; Héctor M. Zárate-Solano
  21. What inflation disrupts? A comment on “Inflation – Pragmatics of money and inflationary sensoria” by Federico Neiburg By Jeanne Lazarus
  22. An Early Form of European Champions? Banking Clubs between European Integration and Global Banking (1960s-1990s) By Alexis Drach
  23. Las contradicciones entre tecnología y desempleo en los últimos doscientos años en las economías capitalistas de occidente By Manzano, Fernando Ariel
  24. Inputs, outputs and living standards in rural China during the 1920s and 30s: a quantitative analysis By Wang, Yuton; Guo, Jingyuan; Deng, Kent
  25. Structural Transformation and Value Change: The British Abolitionist Movement By Valentín Figueroa; Vasiliki Fouka
  26. Women and the Econometrics of Family Trees By José-Antonio Espín-Sánchez; Joseph P. Ferrie; Christopher Vickers
  27. Which Mexicans Are White? Enumerator-Assigned Race in the 1930 Census and the Socioeconomic Integration of Mexican Americans By Brian Duncan; Stephen J. Trejo
  28. Institutional Drift, Property Rights, and Economic Development: Evidence from Historical Treaties By Donn L. Feir; Rob Gillezeau; Maggie E.C. Jones
  29. Enlightenment And The Long-Term Persistence Of The Habsburg Administrative Tradition By Giulio Cainelli; Roberto Ganau; Nadiia Matsiuk
  30. International migration from and to Prussia: 1862-1871 By Bauer, Thomas K.; Schulze, Kathrin
  31. Review of “Adam Smith Reconsidered: History, Liberty, and the Foundations of Modern Politics” by Paul Sagar By Mills, Robin J W
  32. Long-term effects of historical inheritance customs on household formation and gender disparities By Süß, Karolin
  33. Traditions and Innovations: The Rise and Decline of the Shanxi Piaohao (Banks) in the Context of Growing Sino-Foreign Economic Interaction, the 1840s to 1910s By Meng Wu
  34. Ideologies and Utopia: A Ricoeurian Reading of Thomas Piketty By Benoît Walraevens
  35. Creating a Great Public University: The History and Influence of Shared Governance at the University of California by John Aubrey Douglass, CSHE 4. 2023 (October 2023) By Douglass, John A
  36. La transición de la fecundidad en Colombia: nueva evidencia regional By Juliana Jaramillo-Echeverri

  1. By: Stéphane Benveniste (Institut national d’études démographiques (INED), F-75020 Paris, France; Aix-Marseille University (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS, Marseille, France.)
    Abstract: While the educational expansion of the 20 th century promoted social mobility overall, the top of the social hierarchy may have remained privileged. This paper examines the evolution of intergenerational mobility in admissions to the French elite colleges-the Grandes Écoles (GE)-over more than a century. Admission to these institutions is subject to partially anonymous competitive examinations, and their degrees are the ticket to top positions in the public and private sectors. In the growing literature measuring intergenerational mobility through surnames, I design a novel method and apply it to a self-collected dataset on all 285, 286 graduates from ten of the most prestigious Grandes Écoles between 1886 and 2015. Principally, I find that children of male GE graduates were highly over-represented in the top colleges throughout the 20 th century. Importantly, unlike previous studies exploiting fathers' socio-professional categories, I find a stable low level of intergenerational mobility for all cohorts born since 1916: chances of GE admission for children of GE graduates were approximately 80 times higher than for the rest of the population.
    Keywords: intergenerational mobility, higher education, elites, Grandes Ecoles, historical economics
    JEL: J62 I23 N34
    Date: 2023–09
  2. By: Paul Berbée; Jan Stuhler
    Abstract: Germany has become the second-most important destination for migrants worldwide. Using all waves from the microcensus, we study their labor market integration over the last 50 years and highlight differences to the US case. Although the employment gaps between immigrant and native men decline after arrival, they remain large for most cohorts; the average gap after one decade is 10 pp. Conversely, income gaps tend to widen post-arrival. Compositional differences explain how those gaps vary across groups, and why they worsened over time; after accounting for composition, integration outcomes show no systematic trend. Still, economic conditions do matter, and employment collapsed in some cohorts after structural shocks hit the German labor market in the early 1990s. Lastly, we examine the integration of recent arrivals during the European refugee “crisis” and the Russo-Ukrainian war.
    Keywords: immigration, labor market integration, long-run trends
    JEL: J11 J61 J68
    Date: 2023
  3. By: B. Ravikumar; Guillaume Vandenbroucke
    Abstract: We study a simple model where a single good can be produced using a diminishing-returns technology (Malthus) and a constant-returns technology (Solow). The economy's output exhibits three stages: (i) stagnation; (ii) transition with increasing growth; (iii) constant growth in the long run. We map the Malthus technology to agriculture and show that the share of employment in agriculture is sufficient to determine both the onset of economic transition and the dynamics of output during the transition. Using 20th century data on agricultural share of employment, we project backward and estimate the onset of transition for the U.S., Western Europe, and India. We then show that the model's implications are consistent with the observed output dynamics.
    Keywords: economic transition; agricultural employment; Malthus; Solow
    JEL: O10 O13 O40
    Date: 2023–09
  4. By: Yokoyama, Kazuki
    Abstract: In the 19th century, Japan was one of the nations where the Mexican dollar had a lasting presence. The Meiji government introduced the yen as a new domestic currency during the 1870s and began tightening regulations on yogin trading, which involved the foreign exchange of Mexican and Japanese silver currencies. The statistical evidence provided in this paper illustrates that the risk of yogin trading saw a substantial rose as a result of the intensified intervention by the Meiji government. The policies to control yogin quotes proved to be unsuccessful. The prioritization of financial security led to a policy intervention characterized by inconsistency, enabling the reintroduction of speculative transactions that had been banned earlier.
    Keywords: yogin trading, speculation, intervention.
    JEL: G15 N25
    Date: 2023–09–01
  5. By: Panhans, Matthew T.
    Abstract: In 1982, Joe Bain was designated a Distinguished Fellow of the AEA, with an accompanying statement referring to him as “the undisputed father of modern Industrial Organization Economics.” The Structure-Conduct-Performance paradigm that Bain developed and deployed had been the core framework of industrial organization for two decades, and had a significant impact on competition policy from the 1950s through the 1970s. And yet by the time of Bain’s designation as a Distinguished Fellow, industrial organization was shifting away from SCP and instead relying on a foundation of game theory. This essay considers what made the SCP framework so influential in the United States, what shortcomings economists identified in the framework during the shift to the “new IO” in the late 1970s, and what lasting contributions the SCP research program made.
    Date: 2023–09–15
  6. By: Michael D. Bordo; Cécile Bastidon
    Abstract: The evolution of the IMS and IFS in the past several hundred years can be viewed through the lens of the Copernican heliocentric system developed over 500 years ago. We trace out the evolution across regimes of the IMS and IFS in terms of network representations of the Copernican system. We provide a simple, fully testable theoretical model whose assumptions are based on these representations. The IMS and IFS are described by a two-layer graph whose three key features (hub, core, distances) are affected by nonlinear joint regime changes linked to a technological, institutional, geopolitical and regulatory environment variable. We conclude with a discussion of some perspectives of the future of the international monetary and financial systems. Our analysis is based on economic history, theory and some resonant concepts from astrophysics.
    JEL: C3 C82 E42 F33 G15 N2
    Date: 2023–09
  7. By: George Alogoskoufis
    Abstract: This paper reviews, analyses and interprets the determinants and the implications of the twin, fiscal and current account, deficits in the history of modern Greece. The analysis focuses on the determinants and the dynamic interactions among the twin deficits, domestic monetary regimes, and access to international borrowing. Two are the main conclusions: First, when Greece did not have access to international borrowing, fiscal imbalances usually led to monetary destabilization and inflation. Second, when it did have access to international borrowing, fiscal imbalances were generally larger, led to external deficits and, eventually, sovereign debt crises and defaults. The monetary and exchange rate regime also mattered. The 1950s and 1960s were the only prolonged period in which the twin deficits were tackled effectively and, as a result, the only period in which Greece enjoyed high economic growth, monetary stability, and external balance simultaneously.
    Keywords: Modern Greece, economic history, institutions, fiscal policy, monetary policy, debt crises
    Date: 2023–10
  8. By: A.V. Chari
    Abstract: There is a dearth of evidence on the evolution of occupational health in the developing world and on the extent to which it has been influenced by (1) the pattern of structural transformation in these economies and (2) integration with global markets. In this study, I compile a rich database on workplace injuries in India covering a five-decade period. I use these data to examine trends in the rate of occupational injuries and show that the rate of occupational injuries began trending sharply upwards starting in the 1990s.
    Keywords: Structural change, Health, Globalization, India
    Date: 2023
  9. By: Lacroix, Jean (RITM, Universite Paris-Saclay); Mitchener, Kris James (Department of Economics, Leavey School of Business, Santa Clara University, CAGE, CESifo, CEPR and NBER); Oosterlinck, Kim (CEBRIG, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Université libre de Bruxelles and CEPR)
    Abstract: We analyze how secession movements unfold and the interdependence of regions’ decisions to secede. We first model and then empirically examine how secessions can occur sequentially because the costs of secession decrease with the number of seceders and because regions update their decisions based on whether other regions decide to secede. We verify the existence of these “domino secessions†using the canonical case of the secession of southern U.S. states in the 1860s. We first establish that financial markets priced in the costs of secession to geographically-specific assets (state bonds) after Lincoln’s election in the fall of 1860 – long before war broke out. We then show that state bond yields reflect the decreasing costs of secession in two ways. First, as the number of states seceding increased, yields on the bonds of states that had already seceded fell. Second, seceding states with more heterogeneous voters had higher risk premia, reflecting investors beliefs that further sub-secession was more likely in these locations.
    Keywords: Secession, state debt, interdependence, U.S. Civil War, uncertainty JEL Classification: H77, N21, G12
    Date: 2023
  10. By: Silano, Filippo
    Abstract: This study examines the repercussions of the 1979 Sandinista revolution on Nicaragua's economic growth trajectory. Drawing on the synthetic control method, it constructs an artificial counterpart to Nicaragua with the primary objective of estimating the counterfactual gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth rate, assuming that the revolution did not take place. By doing so, the study quantifies the extent to which the Sandinista revolution influenced the country's economic development. The results show that the Somoza removal and the immediate implementation of the Sandinistas policies led to a slight improvement of GDP per capita's growth rate (+2%). On the other hand, the civil war's intensification that ensued (1984-87) negatively affected the initial positive effect of the revolutionary government policy making. This study contributes to a better understanding of the economic dynamics associated with revolutions and civil wars. The findings underscore the significance of considering the broader context in assessing historical events' economic implications and call for further research into the long-term effects of such institutional and political transformations.
    Keywords: Sandinista, Nicaragua, Revolution, Civil war, Synthetic control method, Economic growth, Economic development, Political economy
    JEL: O54 N46 P16 P26 C21 H56
    Date: 2023
  11. By: Boumans, Marcel
    Abstract: This article is the text I read out as my presidential address at the 49th annual meeting of the History of Economics Society, June 2022, in Minneapolis. Additional clarifying comments are displayed as footnotes.
    Date: 2023–09–15
  12. By: Boumans, Marcel; Morgan, Mary S.
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2023–10–01
  13. By: Charles I. Jones
    Abstract: What are the prospects for economic growth in the United States and other advanced countries over the next several decades? U.S. growth for the past 150 years has been surprisingly stable at 2% per year. Growth theory reveals that in the long run, growth in living standards is determined by growth in the worldwide number of people searching for ideas. At the same time, a growth accounting exercise for the United States since the 1950s suggests that many other factors have temporarily contributed to growth, including rising educational attainment and a rising investment rate in ideas. But these forces are inherently temporary, implying that growth rates could slow in the future. This prediction is reinforced by declining population growth throughout the world. In contrast, other forces could potentially sustain or even increase growth. The emergence of countries such as China and India provides large numbers of people who could search for ideas. Improvements in the allocation of talent --- for example, the rise of women inventors --- and increased automation through artificial intelligence are other potential tailwinds.
    JEL: O4
    Date: 2023–08
  14. By: Assaf Razin; Efraim Sadka
    Abstract: Regime changes toward autocracy typically reshape the judicial framework, effectively eroding the separation of powers and leading the nation toward an autocratic path. Recent instances of regime shift in Hungary, Poland, and Turkey offer templates of democratic erosion through manipulation and “democratic” means. Israel is in now amid a conflicting judicial overhaul. Whereas the manifestations of these patterns differ based on the distinct political, social, and historical contexts of each country, they invariably erode the Rule of Law and the democratic institutions. Their ideological stance sharply contrasts with the democratic norms upheld by major Western nations: the separation of powers, judicial autonomy, and the intricate web of political, civic, and social organizations cultivated since the Enlightenment. These century-old trends have been instrumental in fostering unprecedented prosperity. This paper overviews the economic consequences of regime changes from liberal democracy towards autocracy.
    JEL: F0 P1
    Date: 2023–09
  15. By: Harrison, Mark (University of Warwick and CEPR)
    Abstract: Economic warfare was a product of the total wars of the twentieth century. Four lessons are discussed : (1) Modern economies are resilient under attack. (2) The action of economic warfare is slow. (3) Economic warfare is powerful—eventually. (4) The threat of economic warfare is also powerful—although not always as hoped. To conclude, economic warfare belongs to wars of attrition. In such wars, economic and military measures are complements, not substitutes.
    Keywords: blockade ; economic warfare ; strategic bombing ; strategy ; war of attrition ; World War I ; World War II JEL codes: H56 ; N44
    Date: 2023
  16. By: McKean, Benjamin L.; Mackinnon, Emma S.; Winters, Joseph R., II; Pineda, Erin R.; Apostolidis, Paul
    Keywords: AAM requested
    JEL: L81
    Date: 2022–09–15
  17. By: Jørgen J. Andersen (Department of Economics, Norwegian Business School BI); Jonas H. Hamang (Department of Economics, Norwegian Business School BI); Michael L. Ross (Department of Political Science, University of California, Los Angeles)
    Abstract: Many oil-rich countries have authoritarian governments. How will these governments be affected by a global transition away from fossil fuels? We use new, detailed oil data and an event-study design to analyze political change in 36 oil-producing countries that experienced at least 10 years of declining production. We find that when their production starts to decline, they become significantly more democratic, relative to both the overall sample trend and the parallel pre-peak trends. Ten years after their oil peak, 33 of the 36 countries had become more democratic. After 15 years, their relative democracy scores increased by an average of 9 percentage points. For countries that transitioned after 1980, these scores rose about 13 percentage points, and for larger producers, by about 20 percentage points. Our findings suggest that a global transition toward renewable energy may make the governments of oil-rich countries significantly more democratic.
    Date: 2022–06–25
  18. By: Jeff W. Huther; Kevin F. Kiernan; Elizabeth C. Klee; Ethan Rodriguez-Shah
    Abstract: This paper uses summaries of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC’s) meetings to identify its operational targets and map those to operating regimes. We find that operational targets were more often discussed in the earlier part of the FOMC’s 85-year history, but recent years have seen a resurgence in discussions. We identify distinct operating regimes and find that regimes with discussions of multiple targets, usually rate and quantity pairs, are more common than regimes dominated by discussions of single targets. We document that the current period (the 2007-2009 financial crisis to today) is a notable break in operational targets from earlier periods. We also show that shifts in operational targets occur during recoveries, or after a significant downturn in the macroeconomy.
    Date: 2023–05–14
  19. By: Chassonnery-Zaïgouche, Cléo (University of Lausanne); Goutsmedt, Aurélien (UC Louvain - F.R.S-FNRS)
    Abstract: Over a period of twelve years, Barbara Bergmann developed several models of the labor market using microsimulation, eventually integrated in a "Transactions Model" of the entire US economy, built with Robert Bennett and published in 1986. The paper reconstructs the history of this modelling enterprise in the context of the debates on the microfoundations of macroeconomics and the role of macroeconomic expertise from the 1970s stagflation to the late 1980s. It shows how a political element-her focus on distributional effects of policies-was central to her criticism of macroeconomic modelling and how both her epistemic and political positions were increasingly marginalized in the 1980s.
    Date: 2023–09–14
  20. By: Ana María Iregui-Bohórquez; Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra; María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo; Ana María Tribín-Uribe; Héctor M. Zárate-Solano
    Abstract: This paper examines the evolution of women's participation in the labor market from 1960 to 2018, shedding light on the complex factors that influence their labor opportunities. The study emphasizes the significance of the historical context in understanding these factors. This research uncovers nuanced insights using a two-step methodology involving principal component analysis and Time-Varying Effect Modeling (TVEM). The results indicate that the transition from high to low fertility rates significantly influenced female labor participation until the late 1970s. Educational advancements, economic growth, and changing marital dynamics also played a role in shaping evolving patterns. From 1980 to 1995, factors such as diminishing fertility, declining infant mortality, and varying economic conditions influenced women's labor involvement. From 1995 to 2010, higher education emerged as a key driver, accompanied by shifting societal norms, and from 2010 to 2018, the period witnessed positive contributions from fertility rates, minimum wage, and male labor participation. This study underscores the intricate relationship between education, demographics, social norms, and economics in shaping women's labor force participation, providing valuable insights for gender-inclusive policies and promoting women's economic empowerment. **** Este artículo examina la evolución de la participación laboral de las mujeres desde 1960 hasta 2018, analiza los factores que influyen en sus oportunidades laborales y destaca la importancia del contexto histórico para comprender la relación entre estos factores. El estudio utiliza una metodología de dos etapas, incluyendo el análisis de componentes principales y el modelo de efectos cambiantes en el tiempo (TVEM por su sigla en inglés). Los resultados muestran que la transición demográfica tuvo un impacto significativo en la participación laboral femenina hasta finales de la década de 1970. Además, los avances educativos, el crecimiento económico y los cambios en normas sociales, incluyendo el matrimonio, contribuyeron a explicar la dinámica laboral de las mujeres. Desde 1980 hasta 1995, factores como la disminución de la fecundidad, la reducción de la mortalidad infantil y las condiciones económicas moldearon su participación laboral. A partir de 1995, la educación superior se convirtió en un factor clave, junto con cambios en las normas sociales. Durante el período 2010 - 2018, se observaron contribuciones positivas de las tasas de fecundidad, el salario mínimo y la participación laboral masculina. Este estudio resalta la compleja relación entre la educación, la demografía, las normas sociales y la economía en la configuración de la participación de las mujeres en la fuerza laboral, y proporciona información valiosa para desarrollar políticas inclusivas de género promoviendo el empoderamiento económico de las mujeres.
    Keywords: female labor participation, Time-Varying Effect Modeling, demographic transition, Colombia, participación laboral femenina, modelo de efectos cambiantes en el tiempo, transición demográfica
    JEL: C29 J16 N36
    Date: 2023–09
  21. By: Jeanne Lazarus (CSO - Centre de sociologie des organisations (Sciences Po, CNRS) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Keywords: Inflation, poverty
    Date: 2023
  22. By: Alexis Drach (IDHES - Institutions et Dynamiques Historiques de l'Économie et de la Société - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENS Paris Saclay - Ecole Normale Supérieure Paris-Saclay)
    Abstract: Between the late 1950s and the mid-1970s, most large European commercial banks created European banking clubs, which were hybrid cooperative organisations meant to respond to American competition and to the progress of European integration. Based on the archives of several commercial banks from France and the UK, this article examines how the three main European clubs (EBIC, Europartners, and ABECOR) emerged and developed in the 1960s and 1970s, and continued to exist despite increasing challenges in the 1980s. The article argues that banking clubs were an early attempt at creating truly `European' banks, or European champions, even though their experience was abandoned. They also participated in European integration in a different way than the one the European Commission promoted. These clubs were an important institutional response of European banks to both globalisation and European integration.
    Keywords: banking clubs, British banks, cartels, commercial banks, common banking market, competition law, consortium banks, cooperation, European banking, European champions, European enterprises, European integration, French banks, globalisation
    Date: 2023
  23. By: Manzano, Fernando Ariel (Universidad Nacional del Centro de la Provincia de Buenos Aires—)
    Abstract: El desempleo es considerado como una de las problemáticas que la teoría económica tiene mayores dificultades en explicar. El desarrollo tecnológico se destaca como un proceso irreversible en la historia de la humanidad. Entre ambos conceptos, existe una paradójica relación de larga data. Mediante un recorrido histórico, este artículo describe la evolución en las tareas laborales, la incorporación de conocimientos al proceso productivo, entre otros fenómenos, haciendo énfasis en los periodos de las revoluciones industriales. Así, su objetivo es dar cuenta del incremento de la complejidad entre cambio tecnológico y desempleo en el tiempo, lo que permite interpretar las previsiones contradictorias que conviven en la actualidad –muy pesimistas y optimistas–, respecto a la sustitución de los trabajadores por las futuras innovaciones tecnológicas.
    Keywords: desempleo tecnológico; industrialización; revoluciones industriales; estructura laboral; progreso técnico; automatización; technological unemployment; industrialization; industrial revolutions; labor structure; technical progress; automation
    JEL: J20 J48 J50 J60 J80
    Date: 2023–09–15
  24. By: Wang, Yuton; Guo, Jingyuan; Deng, Kent
    Abstract: Since Kenneth Pomeranz’s Great Divergence that was published in 2000, the scholarly debate has been focused on when the divergence was likely to begin. But a lack of real data for the Pomeranz framework has been noticeable. For our purpose, real data are imperative. The primary-source data this study uses are from the first large-scale modern survey of the rural economy in China in the 1920s and 30s to establish correlations between inputs, outputs and living standards in China’s rural sector. This study views China’s traditional growth trajectory continuing from the Qing to troubled times of the 1920s and 1930s despite considerable negative externalities from a regime change. The present view is that given that the rural economy managed to hang on during the Republican Period despite many disadvantages Qing China would have performed at least at the 1920s-30s’ level. Our findings indicate that rural population did indeed eat quite well during the politically troubled time, supporting Pomeranz’s pathbreaking comparison of utility functions between China’s Yangzi Delta and Western Europe. Secondly, food consumption proved incentives for improvement in labour productivity. Thirdly, China’s peasants were rational operators to maximise their returns. Fourthly, China’s highyield farming depended on land and labour inputs along a production probability frontier, which explains the root cause of the Great Divergence. Finally, there was a ‘little divergence’ inside China which was dictated by rice production, which justifies the Yangzi Delta as the best scenario.
    Keywords: Great Divergence; little divergence; primary-source data; inputs and outputs; living standards
    JEL: N35 N55 C51
    Date: 2023–09–01
  25. By: Valentín Figueroa; Vasiliki Fouka
    Abstract: What drives change in a society’s values? From Marx to modernization theory, scholars have identified a connection between structural transformation and social change. To understand how changes in a society’s dominant mode of production affect its dominant values, we examine the case of the movement for the abolition of slavery in the late 18th and early 19th century Britain, one of history’s most well-known campaigns for social change, which coincided temporally with the Industrial Revolution. We argue that structural transformation alters the distribution of power in society and enables groups with distinct values and weak economic interest in the status quo to mobilize for change. Using data on anti-slavery petitions, membership in abolitionist groups, MP voting behavior in Parliament and economic activity, we show that support for abolition was strongly connected to manufacturing at the aggregate and individual level. We rely on biographical data and the analysis of parliamentary speeches to show that industrialists were relatively less reliant on income from slavery and were characterized by a universalist worldview that distinguished them from established elites. Together, our findings suggest that both values and economic interest play a role in driving social change.
    JEL: A13 N63 O14 P16 Z10
    Date: 2023–09
  26. By: José-Antonio Espín-Sánchez; Joseph P. Ferrie; Christopher Vickers
    Abstract: We present an econometric structure for the analysis of intergenerational mobility that integrates non-linearities, the role of maternal-side effects and the impact of grandparents. We show how previously estimated models are special cases of this general framework and what specific assumptions each embeds. Our analysis of linked U. S. data 1900-40 reveals the extent to which inadequate consideration of assortative mating and the impact of mothers produces misleading conclusions.
    JEL: C36 C50 J08 J12 J13 J62 N31 N32
    Date: 2023–08
  27. By: Brian Duncan; Stephen J. Trejo
    Abstract: The authors explore unique complete-count data from the 1930 Census in which a respondent’s race was assigned by enumerators and “Mexican” was one of the possible responses. Census enumerators frequently and selectively assigned a non-Mexican race—predominantly “white”—to U.S.-born individuals of Mexican ancestry. As a result, using enumerator-assigned race to identify Mexican Americans misses a sizeable fraction of the relevant population and significantly understates this group’s socioeconomic attainment. The propensity for Census enumerators to identify Mexican Americans as white varied enormously across U.S. counties, and this variation is strongly associated with both the educational attainment of U.S.-born Mexican Americans observed in the 1940 Census and the amount of return migration by Mexican immigrants during the 1930s. As such, this variation may help to identify local environments that were more favorable for the integration of Mexican Americans.
    JEL: J15
    Date: 2023–08
  28. By: Donn L. Feir; Rob Gillezeau; Maggie E.C. Jones
    Abstract: For nearly three centuries, Indigenous peoples within the borders of present-day Canada engaged in treaty-making with the British Crown and other European powers. These treaties regularly formed the colonial legal basis for access to Indigenous lands. However, treaties were not negotiated everywhere, including in regions subsequently settled by Europeans. Consequentially, there is substantial regional variation in the legal status of occupied lands, jurisdiction over natural resources, and state commitments to Indigenous nations. We study how these legal institutions have shaped the path of economic development in Indigenous communities. Using restricted-access census data, we show that historical treaties substantially lower income in Indigenous communities today. We argue that this results from the constitutional and legal recognition of Aboriginal rights and title, which have dramatically increased bargaining power and, consequently, income growth in non-treaty Indigenous communities.
    JEL: J15 N31 N32 P14
    Date: 2023–09
  29. By: Giulio Cainelli (University of Padova); Roberto Ganau (University of Padova and London School of Economics and Political Science); Nadiia Matsiuk (University of Padova)
    Abstract: We study the long-term, persistent effects of the Enlightenment-inspired administrative reform introduced by the Habsburg Monarchy in 1755 to analyze current administrative efficiency differentials in Northern Italy. We exploit exogeneity in the frontier established in 1748 by the Treaty of Aix-la-Chapelle between the Habsburg-ruled Duchy of Milan and the neighboring territories ruled by the Savoy House. The Habsburgs extended to all land taxpayers—through the Convocato institute—the right of nominating local civil servants and deciding on taxation and public spending, while maintaining the external control through a state representative. By contrast, the municipalities ruled by the Savoy House were subject to a highly centralized system in which local civil servants were nominated by—and were under the control of—the Intendente, who was appointed directly by the King. Using spatial regression discontinuity and employing an original dataset combining current and historical municipality-level data, we find a persistent positive effect of the Habsburg reform on current administrative efficiency. Our evidence shows that Habsburg- ruled municipalities provide more public goods and services while spending as much as Savoy House-ruled ones. We interpret our results through a model of persistence of an administrative tradition driven by a within-institution “bureaucracy enculturation†mechanism. We model the transmission over time of administrative values, norms, and practices within an institution without the need of differences in cultural values within the underlying population.
    Keywords: D73, N43, N44, P00.
    Date: 2023–09
  30. By: Bauer, Thomas K.; Schulze, Kathrin
    Abstract: Migration has always been an omnipresent topic in Germany. However, unlike today, in the 19th century the German territory was a country of emigration, not immigration. Using county-level data for the period from 1861 to 1871, this paper examines the determinants of emigration from and immigration to Prussia. The empirical results indicate that emigration from Prussia was positively associated with increasing land ownership inequality, urbanization, available transport infrastructure and previous emigration experience, and negatively related to the distance to the nearest port. Average land ownership had an inverted U-shaped effect on emigration. Immigration was concentrated in counties with a high degree of urbanization and a high proportion of industrial workers.)
    Keywords: Age of mass migration, historical migration, determinants of migration, Prussia
    JEL: J15 K37 N33 N9 R23
    Date: 2023
  31. By: Mills, Robin J W
    Abstract: Review of “Adam Smith Reconsidered: History, Liberty, and the Foundations of Modern Politics” by Paul Sagar.
    Date: 2023–09–15
  32. By: Süß, Karolin
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of inheritance customs for agricultural land on household formation and gender disparities. Under partible inheritance, agricultural land is split equally among all siblings. Under impartible inheritance, only one descendant inherits the entire land. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design, I find that partible inheritance has a persistent negative effect on household size but not fertility. It has a positive impact on today's female political representation and a negative effect on the gender gap in employment. Fathers also have a lower probability of making use of parental leave benefits but receive them for a longer time.
    Keywords: Inheritance, agriculture, gender disparities
    JEL: J16 N53 R23
    Date: 2023
  33. By: Meng Wu
    Abstract: Shanxi piaohao, also known as the Shanxi banks, were arguably China’s most important indigenous financial institutions in the nineteenth century. In a weak state with little legislation to regulate private enterprises, these privately owned banks established a nationwide remittance network by relying on its informal rules. Drawing on comprehensive primary sources, this paper is the first to examine piaohao's institutional arrangement. My study shows that by designing comprehensive rules on draft enforcement, piaohao prevented draft defaulting and fraud problems. A strict discipline mechanism and a performance-and-tenure-based incentive structure enabled them to overcome the commitment problems of distant employees. Piaohao performed well financially and dominated the Chinese remittance market for a century. However, with the blow of the Xinhai Revolution and the rise of modern Chinese banks, they declined and disappeared collectively from the Chinese financial market in the early twentieth century.
    Keywords: micro-business history; business enterprises in China; contract enforcement; remittance; commitment problem
    JEL: M51 N25 N85
    Date: 2023–09
  34. By: Benoît Walraevens (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: In his most recent books, Piketty offers a global history of ine-quality in its economic, social, political, and intellectual dimensions, ar-guing that history is moved by the struggle of ideologies. To take part in this battle of ideas, he conceives a new ideal model of society, ‘participa-tive socialism', as an egalitarian alternative to the dominant neoproprie-tarian ideology and to the dangerous resurgence of nationalism and pop-ulism. This paper provides a new interpretation of Piketty's view of his-tory and of his participatory socialism in light of Paul Ricoeur's study of the dialectics of ideology and utopia. First, I present Ricoeur's singular analysis of ideology and utopia, which he sees as two inseparable facets of social imagination. Then I show how Ricoeur's concepts can be fruit-fully applied to Piketty's conception of history and to his conception of a new form of socialism for the 21st century, drawing lessons from history and forming a ‘good' or ‘realist' utopia. Finally, I demonstrate that this interpretation of Piketty's socialism can help to better understand some of the criticisms he has received. © 2023, Erasmus Journal for Philosophy and Economics. All Rights Reserved.
    Keywords: ideology, participatory so-cialism, Piketty, realism, Ricoeur, utopia
    Date: 2023
  35. By: Douglass, John A
    Abstract: Since establishing its first campus in 1868, the University of California (UC), California’s land-grant university, developed into the nation’s first multi-campus system in the United States, and is today widely recognized as the world’s premier network of public research universities. This short essay provides an historical brief on the role that shared governance, and specifically the role of the Academic Senate, played in creating an academic culture of excellence and high achievement in pursuing its tripartite mission of teaching and learning, research and knowledge production, and public service. A key component in understanding the critical role of the Senate in UC’s evolution from a single campus in Berkeley to now a ten-campus system is the university’s unusual designation as a public trust in the state constitution that, beginning in 1879, protected the university at critical times from external political pressures and allowed the university to develop an internal academic culture guided by the Academic Senate. By the 1920s, the emergence of California’s unique and innovative public system of higher education, with UC as the sole public provider of doctoral degrees and state funded research, also helps explain the ability of the UC system to maintain its mission and formulate what is termed a One University model. The Academic Senate has created coherency and shared values within UC, and a culture and expectation for faculty performance that is unique among universities around the world. This essay also offers a brief reflection on the Academic Senate’s past influence, its current status, and prospective role. The overall intent is to provide context for the current academic community and higher education scholars regarding the past and future role of faculty in university governance and management, and what distinguishes UC in the pantheon of major research universities.
    Keywords: Education, University of California, Shared Governance, Institutional Autonomy, University Management
    Date: 2023–10–03
  36. By: Juliana Jaramillo-Echeverri
    Abstract: Colombia experimentó uno de los descensos en fecundidad más rápidos del mundo: el número de hijos e hijas por mujer bajó de 7 en 1960 a 3 en 1985. A pesar de las marcadas desigualdades del país, el carácter regional del descenso ha sido ignorado en investigaciones anteriores. Este artículo examina la caída de la fecundidad enfocándose en los patrones regionales. La investigación utiliza los censos de población de 1973 y 1993 para ofrecer una perspectiva empírica detallada de la transición de fecundidad en el país. Se analizan patrones espaciales por medio de Indicadores Locales de Asociación Espacial (LISA, por sus siglas en inglés) para identificar clústeres geográficos y explorar la asociación entre la geografía y la fecundidad antes y durante su transición. Además, se presentan nuevas estimaciones de las tasas de fecundidad de 1958 a 1990, tanto nacionales como departamentales. Los resultados indican que, antes de la transición de fecundidad, las tendencias estaban influenciados por legados históricos derivados de diferencias en las condiciones geográficas. Sin embargo, a partir de 1964, la fecundidad empezó a descender simultáneamente en todos los departamentos, independientemente de sus tasas tradicionales de fecundidad. Aunque la convergencia regional de las tasas de fecundidad no se alcanzó para 1983, la tasa total se redujo a la mitad en la mayoría de los departamentos en tan solo 25 años. A pesar de las diferencias regionales, el descenso de la fecundidad fue rápido, y generalizado. Este descenso simultáneo sugiere que las mejoras socioeconómicas por sí solas no siempre explican los procesos demográficos. **** ABSTRAC: Colombia experienced one of the fastest declines in fertility in the world: children per woman fell from 7 in 1960 to 3 in 1985. Despite the country's significant inequalities, the regional aspect of this decline has been overlooked in previous research. This article examines the fertility decline with a focus on regional. The study uses the complete censuses of 1973 and 1993 to provide a detailed empirical perspective on the fertility transition in the country. Spatial patterns are analysed using Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) to identify geographic clusters and explore the association between geography and fertility patterns before and during the transition. Additionally, new estimates of fertility rates from 1958 to 1990 are presented at both national and departmental levels. The results indicate that, prior to the fertility transition, patterns were influenced by historical legacies derived from differences in geographic endowments. However, starting from 1964, fertility began to decline simultaneously in all regions, regardless of their traditional fertility levels. Although regional convergence of fertility rates was not achieved by 1983, the total rate halved in most regions in just 25 years. Despite regional differences, the fertility decline in the country was not only rapid but also widespread. This simultaneous decline suggests that socioeconomic improvements alone do not always explain demographic processes.
    Keywords: transición de fecundidad, geografía, Colombia, datos censales, fertility transition, geography, census data, clustering
    JEL: C38 J13 N96 O15 R12
    Date: 2023–09

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