nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2023‒10‒09
33 papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo, Northumbria University


  1. Aristocratic amateurs to fat cats? British CEOs in the twentieth century By Adams, Robin J. C.; Aldous, Michael; Fliers, Philip; Turner, John D.
  2. The politics of profits: Profit squeeze and political-economic change in Sweden, 1975–1985 By Bengtsson, Erik
  3. Wealth, work, and industriousness, 1670–1860: Evidence from rural Swedish probates By Falk, Marcus; Bengtsson, Erik; Olsson, Mats
  4. European Consumer Price Indices since 1870 By Ljungberg, Jonas
  5. Rethinking “Distance From”: Lessons from Wittenberg and Mainz By Zhao, Qiyi C.
  6. Review essay: Central banking in Italy By Ivo Maes
  7. Prison Labor: The Price of Prisons and the Lasting Effects of Incarceration By Belinda Archibong; Nonso Obikili
  8. A History of Current Account Balances in Japan from the Perspectives of Savings and Investment By Mariko Hatase; Yoichi Matsubayashi
  9. Review essay: The young Hayek By Ivo Maes
  10. The crofter is a woman: Gender division of labour in rural semi-landless households, Sweden 1800-1900 By Uppenberg, Carolina; Nilsson, Malin
  11. Could Diffusion Indexes Have Forecasted the Great Depression? By Gabriel Mathy; Yongchen Zhao
  12. Italy in the great divergence: what can we learn from Engel’s law? By Chilosi, David; Ciccarelli, Carlo
  13. Türkiye Proudly Celebrating the Centennial of the Signing of the Lausanne Peace Treaty By Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul
  14. How the 1918 influenza pandemic affected voting in the Weimar Republic By Stefan Bauernschuster; Matthias Blum; Erik Hornung; Christoph Koenig
  15. The Political Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Weimar Germany By Bauernschuster, Stefan; Blum, Matthias; Hornung, Erik; Koenig, Christoph
  16. If You Do Not Change Your Behavior: Preventive Repression in Lithuania under Soviet Rule By Nazrullaeva, Eugenia; Harrison, Mark
  17. Whatever Happened to Privatization? The World Bank and Divestiture: 1980–2020 By John Nellis
  18. The Historicity of Economic Sciences: The Main Epistemological Ruptures By Alain Herscovici
  19. The Effects of Racial Segregation on Intergenerational Mobility: Evidence from Historical Railroad Placement By Eric Chyn; Kareem Haggag; Bryan Stuart
  20. The Sudan Syndrome: State-Society Contests and The Future of Democracy After The December 2018 Revolution By Ibrahim Elbadawi; Alzaki Alhelo
  21. Hiberno-Celtic Futurism as a nexus for 21 Century sustainable Trans-disciplinary Innovation and Research By Keogh, Colin; McKeown, Anita
  22. A Theory of Trade Policy Transitions By Renee Bowen; J. Lawrence Broz; B. Peter Rosendorff
  23. Oeconstudiet og den økonomiske faggruppe ved Aarhus Universitet fra 1936 til 1965 By Svend Hylleberg
  24. L'analyse dynamique et le second colloque international d'économétrie Paris 1955 et les transformations de l'analyse macrodynamique By Michaël Assous; Alain Raybaut
  25. Replication of Dickens (2022) "Understanding Ethnolinguistic Differences: The Roles of Geography and Trade" By Gonzalez, Javier; Özak, Ömer
  26. Selective Default Expectations By Olivier Accominotti; Thilo N. H. Albers; Kim Oosterlinck
  27. Managed decline? Muddling through with the sterling (dis)agreements, 1968-74 By De Bromhead, Alan; Jordan, David P.; Kennedy, Francis; Seddon, Jack
  28. Dynamics of life course family transitions in Germany: Exploring patterns, process and relationships By Maurer, Raimond; Usman, Sehrish
  29. Immigration, Female Labour Supply and Local Cultural Norms By Jessen, Jonas; Schmitz, Sophia; Weinhardt, Felix
  30. The Ultimate Resource is Peaking By Charles Kenny
  31. Reflections on the 20-year anniversary of worldwide IFRS adoption By Cascino, Stefano; Daske, Holger; Defond, Mark; Florou, Annita; Gassen, Joachim; Hung, Mingyi
  32. Response to Gonzalez and Özak's (2023) Replication Report By Dickens, Andrew
  33. Protests, Long-term Preferences, and Populism. Evidence from 1968 in Europe By Fazio, Andrea

  1. By: Adams, Robin J. C.; Aldous, Michael; Fliers, Philip; Turner, John D.
    Abstract: This article uses a prosopographical methodology and a new dataset of 1, 558 CEOs from Britain's largest public companies between 1900 and 2009 to analyse how the role, social background, and career pathways of corporate leaders changed. We have four main findings: First, the designation of CEO only prevailed in the 1990s. Second, the proportion of socially elite CEOs was highest before 1940, but they were not dominant. Third, most CEOs did not have a degree before the 1980s, or professional qualification until the 1990s. Fourth, liberal market reforms in the 1980s increased the likelihood of dismissal by a factor of three.
    Keywords: corporate leaders, corporate careers, Britain, 20th century
    JEL: G30 M12 N83 N84
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:202308&r=his
  2. By: Bengtsson, Erik (Department of Economic History, Lund University)
    Abstract: In the late 1970s, the Swedish economy faced a profit squeeze which threatened to hamper investments and hence the creation of jobs. This engendered a massive debate in the media and among economists and policymakers. This paper investigates the discussion of “the politics of profits”, the policy measures directed towards manipulating the distribution between capital income and labour income in the Swedish economy from the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s. The paper indicates that the capital-labour distribution varied significantly over time and that this became a major issue of debate, and shows the relevance of “the politics of profits” for analyses of economic policy change in the 1970s and 1980s.
    Keywords: economic policy; Sweden; macroeconomics; history of capitalism; mixed economy
    JEL: H60 N14 N44 P16
    Date: 2023–09–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:luekhi:0250&r=his
  3. By: Falk, Marcus (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Bengtsson, Erik (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Olsson, Mats (Department of Economic History, Lund University)
    Abstract: This paper uses a new database of 1, 891 probate inventories from rural southern Sweden from the 1670s to the 1860s to investigate the development of wealth and productive capacity in the Swedish countryside in this period. We show that while real wages fell in the 1700s, material living standards — as measured by the contents of probate inventories — improved, indicating greater labour inputs. This was not driven by more widespread ownership of the means of production, as the rural underclasses rather owned less means of production over time, and to some extent farmers did too. The wage labour inputs of the labouring classes intensified, and for workers’ and farmers’ households alike, textile production at home became more important; in the 1860s, half of working-class households owned spinning wheels and weaving looms, and for farmer households, the shares were 68 and 82 per cent, respectively. We argue that the results support an interpretation of an industrious revolution in eighteenth- and nineteenth-century Sweden, with the improving material living standards shown by probate inventories, in contrast to the stagnating GDP per capita suggested by historical national accounts research.
    Keywords: living standards; industrious revolution; Sweden; probate inventories; early modern Europe
    JEL: N33 N43
    Date: 2023–09–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:luekhi:0251&r=his
  4. By: Ljungberg, Jonas (Department of Economic History, Lund University)
    Abstract: This paper presents a database with the probably most up-to date and reliable consumer price indices for a large sample of European countries since 1870. The database is a compilation but a contribution by going back to original or ignored works. For some Eastern European countries, where CPIs have been missing, new provisional indices are constructed. It critically examines historical CPIs in oft-used online databases and uncover some alarming inaccuracies and even fallacies. Despite the importance of accurate CPIs in long-term analyses, previously little effort has been put in assessing the quality and comparability of data between countries. Realism of the CPIs is examined within a framework of economic integration, that qualifies received views. Lack of integration of Mediterranean countries before mid-twentieth century is validated, and contradictory patterns of integration in interwar and post-war Europe uncovered.
    Keywords: consumer price indices; cost of living; source criticism; economic integration
    JEL: E31 N13 N14
    Date: 2023–09–14
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:luekhi:0252&r=his
  5. By: Zhao, Qiyi C.
    Abstract: An influential literature in early modern economic history uses “distance from” as an instrumental or a control variable. I show that “distance from Wittenberg” and “distance from Mainz, ” two prominent instruments for the adoption of Protestantism and printing technology, have historical and econometric drawbacks that engender misleading conclusions. Historical data challenge the assumption that distance determined access to ideas or technology. Placebo tests and simulations reveal that “distance from” variables frequently produce falsely significant estimates in first stage and OLS regressions. My findings suggest caution in using “distance from” instruments for the adoption of ideas and technologies.
    Keywords: distance from, Reformation, printing, religion, Protestantism, idea and technology diffusion, instrumental variable, early modern economic history
    JEL: C18 C36 N0 N10 N13 N3 N30 N33 N70 N73 N93 O14 O15 O30 O33 O43
    Date: 2023–06–28
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118414&r=his
  6. By: Ivo Maes (Robert Triffin Chair, University of Louvain and Visiting Fellow, Bruegel)
    Abstract: Gianni Toniolo was one of Italy’s, and Europe’s, foremost economic historians. Unfortunately, he suddenly passed away in November 2022, a few weeks after he had presented in Rome his newest book, the first volume of his history of the Bank of Italy, Storia della Banca d’Italia. Tomo I. Formazione ed evoluzione di una banca centrale, 1893-1943 (History of the Bank of Italy. Part I. Formation and evolution of a central bank, 1893-1943). Toniolo’s history of the Bank of Italy illustrates very well many issues which are at the heart of the literature on central banking. What emerges very well is the gradual transformation of the Bank of Italy, from an emission bank to a central bank, with a growing public character of the Bank. The early relationship between the Bank of Italy and the commercial banks was often one of business rivalry and competition. Through time, the Bank of Italy gained the monopoly of the emission of banknotes but had to stop its commercial activities, while being entrusted with responsibilities in the supervision of the commercial banks. Toniolo’s book covers a turbulent period in Italian monetary history, with several banking crises. Monetary policy was dominated by the issue of the reconciliation of two contrasting objectives: the exchange rate of the lira and the stability of the banking system. A distinguishing feature of the Italian experience of central banking is how the development of the Bank of Italy was embedded in the process of nation-building. In other countries, where the nation-state was established before the central bank, this was very much a process of extending the network of branches. In Italy, where the process of unification was later, it implied the merger of emission banks, a much more delicate political issue.
    Keywords: central banking, Bank of Italy, banking crises, financial stability, Italian lira
    JEL: E42 E58 G28 N10
    Date: 2023–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:202309-441&r=his
  7. By: Belinda Archibong; Nonso Obikili
    Abstract: Institutions of justice, like prisons, can be used to serve economic and other extrajudicial interests, with lasting deleterious effects. We study the effects on incarceration when prisoners are primarily used as a source of labor using evidence from British colonial Nigeria. We digitized 65 years of archival records on prisons from 1920 to 1995 and provide new estimates on the value of colonial prison labor and the effects of labor demand shocks on incarceration. We find that prison labor was economically valuable to the colonial regime, making up a significant share of colonial public works expenditure. Positive economic shocks increased incarceration rates over the colonial period. This result is reversed in the postcolonial period, where prison labor is not a notable feature of state public finance. We document a significant reduction in present-day trust in legal institutions, such as the police, in areas with high historical exposure to colonial imprisonment; the resulting reduction in trust is specific to legal institutions.
    JEL: H5 J47 N37 O10 O43
    Date: 2023–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31637&r=his
  8. By: Mariko Hatase (Director and senior economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (currently, Professor, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, E-mail: hatase@ ier.hit-u.ac.jp)); Yoichi Matsubayashi (Professor, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University (E-mail: myoichi@econ.kobe-u.ac.jp))
    Abstract: Theories on the determinants of current account balances are not immutable. While Japan's current account surplus was a major issue for international policy debates between the late 1960s and the 1980s, existing theories coexisted with a novel theory known as the savings and investment approach. The review on historical materials from the archives of policymakers, such as the Bank of Japan, and from international organisations, such as the International Monetary Fund, reveals that the early appearance of this theory in research documents could be traced back to the late 1970s, but the penetration of the notion took many years. The choices of the theory are linked to the choices of suggestions or requests of particular types of macroeconomic policies. We examine the development of Japan's current account balances between the mid-1950s and the mid-1980s using the savings and investment approach, which enables us to distinguish between structural and actual fluctuations. The estimated results indicate that the role of structural factors in the current account balance was strengthened during the second half of the 1960s and the first half of the 1970s. Then, in the 1980s, it began to increase rapidly again.
    Keywords: Current accounts adjustment, Balance of payments, Savings and investment approach, Structural current accounts
    JEL: E20 E60 F32 N10
    Date: 2023–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:23-e-04&r=his
  9. By: Ivo Maes (Robert Triffin Chair, University of Louvain and Visiting Fellow, Bruegel)
    Abstract: Friedrich Hayek has been one of the dominating intellectual figures of the 20th century. Hayek, together with Gunnar Myrdal, received the 1974 Nobel Memorial Prize in economics, for “their pioneering work in the theory of money and economic fluctuations and for their penetrating analysis of the interdependence of economic, social and institutional phenomena”. Bruce Caldwell (Duke University) and Hansjoerg Klausinger (WU Vienna University of Economics and Business), two distinguished historians of economic thought, have produced a massive (840 pages) work, covering the first five decades of Hayek’s existence. Hayek: A Life, 1899-1950 is a monumental and sympathetic biography. The book is based on painstaking archival research and shows great scholarship. The novelty is very much in bringing the person of Hayek to life, with its strengths and weaknesses.
    Keywords: Friedrich Hayek, Austrian school, biography, business cycle theory
    JEL: B20 B31 B53 E14 G28 N10 P00
    Date: 2023–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:202309-440&r=his
  10. By: Uppenberg, Carolina (Department of Economic History and International Relations, Stockholm University); Nilsson, Malin (Department of Economic History, Lund University)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to contribute to the empirical question of the labour organisation and the gender division of labour in a semi-landless rural group, crofters (Swedish torpare), during the nineteenth century, and thereby also add to the larger question of the role of gender division of labour in the formation of a wagedependent class. The crofters’ households performed contract-defined corvée labour (unpaid duties as payment for the croft) for the landowner alongside subsistence work at their own croft. We triangulated crofters’ contracts, work lists from estate archives and ethnographic questionnaires to understand the gender division of labour on the estates and at the crofts. The results show that men performed a much higher number of corvée days per year compared to women. We found a positive correlation between men’s and women’s corvee days, meaning that crofts with the highest number of corvée days for men also had the highest number for women. Moreover, we found that many core agricultural tasks were done by both men and women. The labour organisation, on the other hand, was clearly gendered – the role as a crofter in the sense of doing corvée labour for a landowner was primarily a male experience, while the role as a crofter in the sense of working one’s own small plot of land was a female experience.
    Keywords: gender division of labour; proletarianization; semi-landless households; crofters; torpare; estates; Sweden; nineteenth century
    JEL: N53
    Date: 2023–09–18
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:luekhi:0253&r=his
  11. By: Gabriel Mathy (Department of Economics, American University); Yongchen Zhao (Department of Economics, Towson University)
    Abstract: Was the Depression forecastable? In this paper, we test how effective diffusion indexes are in forecasting the deepest recession in U.S. history: the Great Depression. Moore (1961) considered the effectiveness of diffusion indexes historically, including for the Great Depression, though he only did so retrospectively and did not forecast out-of-sample. We reconstruct Moore's diffusion indexes for this historical period and make our own comparable indexes for out-of-sample predictions. We find that diffusion indexes, including the horizon-specific ones we produce, can nowcast turning points fairly well. Forecasting remains difficult, but our results suggest that the initial downturn in 1929 may be forecastable months before the Great Crash. This is a novel result, as previous authors had generally found the Depression was not forecastable.
    Keywords: Diffusion Index, Great Depression, Forecasting.
    JEL: N12 C53 E32 E37
    Date: 2023–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tow:wpaper:2023-05&r=his
  12. By: Chilosi, David (Department of Political Economy, King’s College London); Ciccarelli, Carlo (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Roma Tor Vergata)
    Abstract: We estimate and internationally compare the evolution of GDP pc in central-northern and, for the first time, southern Italy in 1400-1861. To address concerns on the representativeness of daily wages, we rely on an unconventional demand approach, using a general equilibrium model and occupational data. Our estimates are consistent with an “industrious revolution†in the “long 18th century†(1650-1800). Central-northern Italy stagnated. Southern Italy, though poorer, was growing slowly. Our comparison suggests that the “great divergence†between Europe and Asia in the 18th century was rooted in contingent institutional developments, rather than persistent differences.
    Keywords: JEL Classification:
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:667&r=his
  13. By: Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul (Center For Eurasian Studies (AVİM))
    Abstract: The Republic of Türkiye commemorates the centenary of the Lausanne Peace Treaty, signed on July 24, 1923. This pivotal treaty formed the bedrock for the establishment of the Republic. Historically significant, the treaty underscored the prowess of the Nationalist Movement, led by Mustafa Kemal, to nullify the previously imposed Treaty of Sevres and forge a new accord with the Allies on favorable terms. The Lausanne Treaty signified the transformation of Turkey from a collapsed empire to an independent, sovereign state, securing its recognition among sovereign nations. Atatürk, in his iconic "Nutuk", hailed the treaty as a triumphant rebuttal to long-standing conspiracies against the Turkish nation. This accomplishment was a product of a protracted campaign that began with the 1919 Declaration of Amasya, emphasizing Turkey's sovereignty and independence. Despite a century since its ratification, the Lausanne Peace Treaty's importance resonates, given the contemporary challenges and regional tensions it continues to address.
    Date: 2023–07–23
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:9jxmy&r=his
  14. By: Stefan Bauernschuster; Matthias Blum; Erik Hornung; Christoph Koenig
    Date: 2023–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkpbs:053&r=his
  15. By: Bauernschuster, Stefan (University of Passau); Blum, Matthias (German Medical Association); Hornung, Erik (University of Cologne); Koenig, Christoph (University of Rome Tor Vergata)
    Abstract: How do health crises affect election results? We combine a panel of election results from 1893–1933 with spatial heterogeneity in excess mortality due to the 1918 Influenza to assess the pandemic’s effect on voting behavior across German constituencies. Applying a dynamic differences-in-differences approach, we find that areas with higher influenza mortality saw a lasting shift towards left-wing parties. We argue that pandemic intensity increased the salience of public health policy, prompting voters to reward parties signaling competence in health issues. Alternative explanations such as pandemic-induced economic hardship, punishment of incumbents for inadequate policy responses, or polarization of the electorate towards more extremist parties are not supported by our findings.
    Keywords: Pandemics, Elections, Health, Voting behavior, Issue salience, Issue ownership, Weimar Republic JEL Classification: D72, I18, N34, H51
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:666&r=his
  16. By: Nazrullaeva, Eugenia (School of Public Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science; CAGE, University of Warwick); Harrison, Mark (Department of Economics and CAGE, University of Warwick; CEPR)
    Abstract: Who is targeted by preventive repression and why? In the Soviet Union, the KGB applied a form of low-intensity preventive policing, called profilaktika. Citizens found to be engaging in politically and socially disruptive misdemeanors were invited to discuss their behavior and to receive a warning. Using novel data from Lithuania, a former Soviet republic, in the late 1950s and the 1970s, we study the profile and behaviors of the citizens who became subjects of interest to the KGB. We use topic modeling to investigate the operational focuses of profilaktika. We find that profilaktika began as a way of managing specific threats or “known risks†that arose from the experience of postwar Sovietization. The proportion of “unknown risks†– people without risk factors in their background or personal records – increased by the 1970s. These people were targeted because of their anti-Soviet behaviour, which the KGB attributed to “contagious†foreign influences and the spread of harmful values.
    Keywords: coercion, communism, preventive repression, security, social norms, surveillance, Soviet Union JEL Classification: N44, P37
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:664&r=his
  17. By: John Nellis (Former World Bank staff member and former senior fellow; Center for Global Development)
    Abstract: This is a review of the World Bank’s use of privatization as a means to improve the performance of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in its client countries. SOEs became matters of great concern to client governments of the World Bank in the 1970s and early 1980s, as their financial losses and poor quantity and quality of production mounted. The World Bank first approached the problem through policy, financial, and managerial reforms in SOEs and their supervising agencies. Most efforts were short of ownership change; privatization was only tentatively discussed. Positive results were modest and, more important, generally unsustainable. The World Bank—and indeed much of the world—turned to divestiture in the mid-1980s, and especially in the period 1990-2005. By the end of the 1990s, over half of World Bank SOE-related operations contained a privatization component. In the ensuing period, privatization lost its luster; the number and scope of World Bank-sponsored privatization actions declined greatly. The World Bank then employed, far more extensively than in the previous period, corporate governance actions, competition enhancement measures and SOE financing reforms. This paper describes the course of the rise and fall of privatization in the World Bank. While acknowledging that privatization was far more difficult than anticipated to implement correctly, particularly in low-income and institutionally weak countries, the continuing difficulty of applying technical fixes to still large, still underperforming, and still capital-short SOE sectors justifies a renewed attempt at privatization.
    Date: 2021–09–29
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:592&r=his
  18. By: Alain Herscovici (UFES - Universidade Federal do Espirito Santo)
    Abstract: The object of this work is threefold: it consists (a) in explaining and justifying, based on Foucault's concept of episteme, the epistemological foundations from which Classical Economics, Keynesian Economics and Neoclassical Economics were built; (b) in studying the nature of the epistemological ruptures that allow differentiating these schools; and (c) in defining the degree of incommensurability of these different paradigms. In the first part, I will define the main epistemological tools that allow studying the birth and evolution of science. In the second part, I will study the nature of the epistemological ruptures that characterize these evolutions and these different schools.
    Keywords: Historicity -Epistemological Ruptures -History of Economic Thought -Episteme
    Date: 2023–08–28
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04189632&r=his
  19. By: Eric Chyn; Kareem Haggag; Bryan Stuart
    Abstract: This paper provides new evidence on the causal impacts of citywide racial segregation on intergenerational mobility. We use an instrumental variable approach that relies on plausibly exogenous variation in segregation due to the arrangement of railroad tracks in the 19th century. Our analysis finds that higher segregation reduces upward mobility for Black children from households across the income distribution and White children from low-income households. Moreover, segregation lowers academic achievement while increasing incarceration and teenage birth rates. An analysis of mechanisms shows that segregation reduces government spending, weakens support for antipoverty policies, and increases racially conservative attitudes among White residents.
    Keywords: Race; Inequality; Intergenerational Mobility; Segregation; Discrimination
    JEL: J15 J62 J71 R31
    Date: 2023–09–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:96678&r=his
  20. By: Ibrahim Elbadawi (Economic Research Forum); Alzaki Alhelo (Department of Economics, University of Khartoum, Sudan.)
    Abstract: Around 65 years ago when Sudan was about to gain its independence, it was described as a “bright spot in a dark continent.” Unfortunately, that optimism about Sudan could not have been more wrong. Instead, Sudan has come to be a country defined by conflicts, political instability, and development failures. To date, the country has experienced three long-reigning, dysfunctional, and autocratic military regimes interrupted by three popular uprisings (in 1964, 1986, and 2018-present). The first two led to short-lived democracies, while, as before, the demise of the last autocratic regime led to the formation of the current transitional government, entrusted with the task of preparing the country for democratic elections in 2023. However, this nascent transitional government was toppled by a palace coup on 25 October 2021 well before the much-anticipated election of 2023. This peculiar Sudanese political history came to be characterized in popular Sudanese literature as the “Sudan Syndrome.” The main research questions considered in this paper revolve around explaining this “syndrome, ” drawing lessons for the current transition, and exploring how Sudan can break free from the vicious cycle that plagued its post-independence history toward the stable, prosperous, democratic state that was originally thought to be its destiny. We use the “narrow corridor” model of Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson as the main analytical framework for analyzing the phenomena and for drawing lessons for the current political transition in Sudan. Specifically, we ask three fundamental questions: how can Sudan re-enter the corridor following the recent setback in October 2021? How can the country broaden the corridor and stay in it toward a balanced and mature democratic project? Finally, how can the country engineer the national project for achieving these two objectives while accounting for both the political and economic agenda of the social contract?
    Date: 2023–08–20
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1644&r=his
  21. By: Keogh, Colin; McKeown, Anita
    Abstract: This paper explores the concept of Hiberno-Celtic Futurisms within the framework of Indigenous Futurism. It aims to construct alternative narratives of the future rooted in the rich history and mythology of Celtic heritage, encompassing Irish, Manx, Scottish, Welsh, Cornish, and Breton cultures. By blending tradition and innovation, this approach seeks to foster interdisciplinary collaboration and innovation across fields such as science, technology, engineering, the arts, and mathematics (STEAM). Positioned as a bridge between past and future, it envisions a more inclusive and values-driven future, acknowledging the complex histories of Hiberno-Celtic culture. While not a nationalist agenda, the paper underscores the importance of collective effort and restoration for a sustainable future, emphasizing generative, empathic, and inclusive values. The authors view this work as a starting point for discussion and collaboration, welcoming contributions from diverse perspectives to nurture the growth and evolution of this vision.
    Date: 2023–08–29
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:8khs5&r=his
  22. By: Renee Bowen; J. Lawrence Broz; B. Peter Rosendorff
    Abstract: Trade policy is set by domestic political bargaining between globalists and protectionists, representing owners of factors specific to export and import-competing sectors respectively. Consistent with the post-Civil War Era of Restriction, protectionists implement high tariffs when status quo tariffs are low. When status quo tariffs are high, reciprocal free trade combined with domestic transfers to protectionists are implemented, explaining the 1930s Era of Reciprocity with Re- distribution. Consensus emerges for Retreat from free trade when imports are high and domestic transfers are low, suggesting that US protectionist turn in the late 2010s was in part due to low levels of social transfers.
    JEL: B27 F13 P0 P11
    Date: 2023–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31662&r=his
  23. By: Svend Hylleberg (Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University)
    Abstract: The paper contains a description and an analysis of the first thirty years of the existence of the study of economics at Aarhus University. Economics is now one of the more successful studies at Aarhus University with a track record of very high employment of its candidates in important positions, good international research standing in several subfields of economics and a valuable contribution to the public debate of important economic problems in Denmark. In this paper we present the “flying†start of the oecon study and the research in economics from 1936 to the late forties and onwards until 1965, and we describe the development of the study and the research both in general and by the individual contributions of the people employed by the economics departments.
    Keywords: Økonomiens sociologi
    JEL: A14
    Date: 2023–09–20
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aah:aarhec:2023-07&r=his
  24. By: Michaël Assous (TRIANGLE - Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Alain Raybaut (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur)
    Date: 2023–06–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04188724&r=his
  25. By: Gonzalez, Javier; Özak, Ömer
    Abstract: Dickens (2022) studies the role of trade on long-run inter-ethnic linguistic differences. He establishes that neighboring ethnolinguistic groups have smaller (lexicostatistical) linguistic distances when there is a larger agricultural productivity variation between them. Specifically, he establishes that pre-1500 land productivity variation (CSI SD) and its change due to Columbian Exchange in the post-1500 (CSI SD CHANGE) era decrease linguistic distances between groups. In what can be considered his main specification, which includes geographical controls, spatial controls, and language family fixed effects (Table 1 column 5), he estimates that a one standard deviation increase in the change in land productivity variation (post-1500) decreases linguistic distances by 0.11 standard deviations (p-value
    Keywords: Replication, Linguistic Distances, Trade
    JEL: F10 O10 Z10
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:62&r=his
  26. By: Olivier Accominotti (London School of Economics and Political Science); Thilo N. H. Albers (HU Berlin); Kim Oosterlinck (Université libre de Bruxelles)
    Abstract: This paper explores how selective default expectations affect the pricing of sovereign bonds in a historical laboratory: the German default of the 1930s. We analyze yield differentials between identical government bonds traded across various creditor countries before and after bond market segmentation. We show that, when secondary debt markets are segmented, a large selective default probability can be priced in bond yield spreads. Selective default risk accounted for one third of the yield spread of German external bonds over the risk-free rate during the 1930s. Selective default expectations arose from differences in the creditor countries' economic power over the debtor.
    Keywords: sovereign risk; debt default; secondary markets; creditor discrimination;
    JEL: F13 F34 G12 G15 H63 N24 N44
    Date: 2023–09–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:425&r=his
  27. By: De Bromhead, Alan; Jordan, David P.; Kennedy, Francis; Seddon, Jack
    Abstract: How do policy makers manage the decline of an international currency? This paper examines British policy towards the pound sterling's international role in the years 1968-74. Using previously uncited government archival sources, we revisit the view that the 'sterling agreements' of 1968-74, bilateral contracts made between the UK and governments holding sterling, formed a successful paradigm shift in British policy, towards deliberately managing sterling's international 'retirement'. Our research indicates that there was no settled consensus or strategic direction to British policy in this period, a case of 'muddling through'. Indeed, when feasible options presented themselves, British officials sought to maximise, not reduce, international sterling holdings.
    Keywords: Sterling Area Agreements, international currency, sterling policy, disintegration
    JEL: N10 F02 F22 F33
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:202309&r=his
  28. By: Maurer, Raimond; Usman, Sehrish
    Abstract: This paper explores dynamics of family life events in Germany using discrete time event history analysis based on SOEP data. We find that higher educational attainment, better income level, and marriage emerge as salient protective factors mitigating the risk of mortality; better education also reduces the likelihood of first marriage whereas, lower educational attainment, protracted period, and presence of children act as protective factors against divorce. Our key finding shows that disparity in mean life expectancies between individuals from low- and high-income brackets is observed to be 9 years among males and 6 years among females, thereby illustrating the mortality inequality attributed to income disparities. Our estimates show that West Germans have low risk of death, less likelihood of first marriage, and they have a high risk of divorce and remarriage compared to East Germans.
    Keywords: Family dynamics, Life Events, Hazard estimation, Life course transitions
    JEL: C13 C34 J12
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:399&r=his
  29. By: Jessen, Jonas (IZA); Schmitz, Sophia (Federal Institute for Population Research); Weinhardt, Felix (European University Viadrina, Frankfurt / Oder)
    Abstract: We study the local evolution of female labour supply and cultural norms in West Germany in reaction to the sudden presence of East Germans who migrated to the West after reunication. These migrants grew up with high rates of maternal employment, whereas West German families mostly followed the traditional breadwinner-housewife model. We find that West German women increase their labour supply and that this holds within households. We provide additional evidence on stated gender norms, West-East friendships, intermarriage, and child care infrastructure. The dynamic evolution of the effects on labour supply is best explained by local cultural learning.
    Keywords: cultural norms, local learning, gender, immigration
    JEL: J16 J21 D1
    Date: 2023–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16428&r=his
  30. By: Charles Kenny (Center for Global Development)
    Abstract: Julian Simon argued that more people were associated with more prosperity: human talents were the “ultimate resource” and the force behind rising living standards. The last 30 years have been consistent with that view. But, globally, we are making fewer workers—and, more importantly, fewer potential innovators. In rich countries, human capital is growing considerably more slowly than in the past. Meanwhile innovation per researcher appears to be dropping as the population of researchers ages, while it takes longer to get to the knowledge frontier and more collaboration to expand it. Combined with the fact we are increasingly intolerant of risk and increasingly desirous of innovations in sectors where it is particularly hard to increase productivity, it is little surprise that productivity growth is indeed declining. To extend our two-century era of comparatively rapid progress, we need radically reduced discrimination in the global opportunity to innovate.
    Keywords: technology, demographics, economic growth
    JEL: E10 F01
    Date: 2023–01–25
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:630&r=his
  31. By: Cascino, Stefano; Daske, Holger; Defond, Mark; Florou, Annita; Gassen, Joachim; Hung, Mingyi
    Abstract: At the Ninth International Conference of the Journal of International Accounting Research, Editor Steve Lin organized a plenary session titled “20 Years of IFRS Research” to commemorate the 20th anniversary of the worldwide adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). During the session, each panelist presented their views on what we have learned from researching IFRS for the past 20 years and where we should go from here. This article presents a short essay from each panelist summarizing their comments, as well as related issues that were not fully explored at the conference.
    Keywords: IFRS; IASB; international accounting; regulation; accounting policy; enforcement
    JEL: M40
    Date: 2023–09–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120205&r=his
  32. By: Dickens, Andrew
    Abstract: Gonzalez and Özak (2023) provide a direct and successful replication of Dickens (2022). Using a reconstructed version of the main independent variables from the same original sources, in addition to an updated version of the source data, the replicators confirm the main finding of the original study. In addition to the replication, Gonzalez and Özak (2023) develop an alternative measure of potential gains from inter-ethnic trade. They use this new measure in an interesting extension that delves deeper into the the specifics of the inter-ethnic trade mechanism proposed and tested by Dickens (2022). In this response, I clarify two minor points about how the original data set was constructed, and contrast the potential shortcomings of the original and alternative measures of inter-ethnic gains from trade.
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:63&r=his
  33. By: Fazio, Andrea
    Abstract: In 1968, young people grew up in an atmosphere of strong dissatisfaction and distrust against the status quo. We show that higher exposure to protests in 1968 leads to higher dissatisfaction toward national governments and raises the probability of voting for populist parties. Consistently with the impressionable years hypothesis, we find these effects valid only for those aged between 18 and 25 during 1968. Our results are robust to a series of placebo tests and to alternative definitions of our treatment and control groups. We find that our results are driven by individuals with a middle or low level of education. We also find suggestive evidence that the mechanisms driving our results can depend on individuals' level of education: within our treated cohort people with an elementary level of education appear more attracted by the populist rhetoric, while people with a middle level of education are more likely to care about traditional values.
    Keywords: Populism, 1968 Protests, Log-term Preferences, Impressionable years
    JEL: P16 D72 Z10
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1329&r=his

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