nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2023‒09‒11
23 papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo, Northumbria University

  1. SANITARY REFORMS IN EAST ASIA IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE 19TH AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE 20TH CENTURIES (HONG KONG’ AND SHANGHAI’ CASES) By Mikhel, Dmitry (Михель, Дмитрий); Mikhel, Irina (Михель, Ирина); Malinovskaya, Olga (Малиновская, Ольга)
  2. The Emergence of the Child Quantity-Quality Tradeoff - insights from early modern academics By Thomas Baudin; David de la Croix
  3. Hot money inflows and bank risk-taking: Germany from the 1920s to the Great Depression By Postel-Vinay, Natacha; Collet, Stephanie
  4. Extraordinary Accidents and Situational Fears in 17th Century French Memoirs By Neklyudova, Maria (Неклюдова, Мария)
  5. Income inequality under colonial rule. Evidence from French Algeria, Cameroon, Tunisia, and Vietnam and comparisons with British colonies 1920–1960 By Facundo Alvaredo; Denis Cogneau; Thomas Piketty
  7. Ars longa, vita brevis: The death of the creator and the impact on exhibitions and auction markets By Alexander Cuntz; Matthias Sahli
  8. The creative studio, designer of prospective scenarios for innovation for France Télécom R&D By Damien Douani; Thomas Michaud; Laurent Ponthou
  10. REFORM OF SCHOOL EDUCATION OF THE PRE-REVOLUTIONARY (1917) PERIOD: LANGUAGES OF THE PEOPLES OF RUSSIA By Artemenko, Olga (Артеменко, Ольга); Kuzmin, Michail (Кузьмин, Михаил); Anzorova, Svetlana (Анзорова, Светлана); Borgoyakova, Tatiana (Боргоякова, Татьяна); Gasanova, Patimat (Гасанова, Патимат); Subrakov, Alexander (Субраков, Александр)
  11. GEOWEALTH: spatial wealth inequality data for the United States, 1960-2020 By Suss, Joel; Kemeny, Thomas; Connor, Dylan Shane
  12. The Impact of Violence during the Mexican Revolution on Migration to the United States By David Escamilla-Guerrero; Edward Kosack; Zachary Ward
  13. Evolution from political fragmentation to a unified empire in a Malthusian economy By Chu, Angus; Peretto, Pietro; Furukawa, Yuichi
  14. Export-led growth and the geopolitical hypothesis: Israel's regime change after the second Intifada By Krampf, Arie
  15. Constitutions and Order: A theory and comparative evidence from Colombia and the United States By Fergusson, Leopoldo; Mejía, Javier; Robinson, James A.; Torres, Santiago
  16. Compte rendu de lecture. La dette publique. Ses mécanismes, ses enjeux, ses controverses, de Bernard Blancheton, Paris, Dunod, 2022 (189 pages) By François Facchini
  17. A comment on Jumping The Gun: How Dictators Got Ahead Of Their Subjects (2023) By Sen, Sharmi; Maitra, Adit; Cameron, Alistair
  18. Business Cycles and Low-Frequency Fluctuations in the US Unemployment Rate By Kurt Graden Lunsford
  19. CEO Stress, Aging, and Death By Borgschulte, Mark; Guenzel, Marius; Liu, Canyao; Malmendier, Ulrike
  20. Hackers in science fiction, between heroic resistance and criminality By Thomas Michaud
  21. Documenting the 1973 and 1978 Surveys of Water Use in Manufacturing (SWUM) By Randy A. Becker; Jordan Burt; Wayne Gray; Tanya Stasio
  22. La constitution historique d'une industrie pétrolière publique en France : « un État dans l'État » ? By Armand Desprairies
  23. The Economic Impact of a Casino Monopoly: Evidence from Atlantic City By Adam Scavette

  1. By: Mikhel, Dmitry (Михель, Дмитрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Mikhel, Irina (Михель, Ирина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Malinovskaya, Olga (Малиновская, Ольга) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The aim of the study is to analyze the history of sanitary reforms in East Asia on the territory of two European enclaves (Hong Kong and Shanghai), which became important centers of transit of Western public health theories and practices to China in the second half of XIX - first half of XX centuries. The relevance of the research is conditioned by the necessity of understanding the historical experience of social processes management in complex epidemiological situations and development of Russian society response to new big challenges, connected with epidemic spreading. The novelty of the study consists in clarifying the existing scientific picture of the formation of modern public health management institutions in East Asia during the period from the beginning of European expansion into China to the Japanese invasion. The study was conducted in 2022 using primary sources from digital libraries in London (Wellcome Collection), Hong Kong (Digital Repository of Hong Kong University), and Shanghai (Virtual Shanghai), as well as works by Western and Chinese historians on public health and sanitation in Asia. During the study methods of historical knowledge were used: problem-chronological, comparative-historical, historical-typological. Methodology of social history of public health became the theoretical base of research. The conclusions of the study are as follows. Sanitary reforms began in those parts of East Asia where European influence was strong. At the forefront of the reforms were the British colony of Hong Kong and the international settlements in Shanghai, where Europeans had to adapt to the difficult conditions of climate, the burden of infectious diseases, and constant overcrowding. Rationalizing the management of urban space, they did not try to offer their way of life to the Chinese population, seeing them as culturally backward and unable to assimilate such civilizational achievements as sewage and running water, but under the pressure of economic and epidemiological needs this step was taken. As a result, by the end of the 1930s, Hong Kong and Shanghai had become prosperous cities with relatively good sanitary and epidemiological conditions.
    Keywords: world history, epidemics, modernization, sanitation reforms, Hong Kong Sanitary Board, Shanghai Municipal Council
    JEL: N01
    Date: 2022–07
  2. By: Thomas Baudin (IESEG School of Management, Univ. Lille); David de la Croix (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))
    Abstract: We examine the relationship between family size and human capital among academics in Northern Europe over the two centuries prior to the Industrial Revolution. To measure scholars' human capital, we develop a novel and consistent approach based on their publications. We find that scholars with a high number of publications shifted from having more siblings to having fewer than others during the first half of the 18th century. This shift is consistent with an evolutionary growth model in which the initial Malthusian constraint leads the high human capital families to reproduce more, before being endogenously substituted by a Beckerian constraint with a child quality-quantity tradeoff. Our results support a reinterpretation of the Galor and Moav (2002)'s approach, in which the decline of Malthusian constraints is linked to human capital accumulation during the 18th century.
    Keywords: Fertility, Human Capital, Premodern Europe, Universities, Academies, Evolution, Natural Selection, Malthusian Stagnation
    JEL: O11 O40 J11 J13 N13 N33
    Date: 2023–08–14
  3. By: Postel-Vinay, Natacha; Collet, Stephanie
    Abstract: This paper explores the origins of German banks’ risk-taking in the years preceding the 1931 crisis. The 1920s were marked by a large and prolonged increase in capital flows into Germany, chiefly from the United States and the United Kingdom. This coincided, at the individual bank level, with a rise in leverage and a fall in liquidity. We examine possible connections between the two phenomena. Our analysis is based on a combination of historiographical work and statistical modelling based on a newly hand-collected bimonthly dataset on German reporting banks from 1925 to 1935. Bank by bank we examine the effects of foreign inflows on decisions related to leverage, lending, and liquidity. The Dawes Plan of 1924 and the relative absence of a too-big-to-fail (TBTF) environment allow us to mitigate endogeneity concerns. We suggest that while capital inflows did not seem to impact banks’ liquidity decisions, their impact on leverage was non-negligeable.
    Keywords: capital flows; credit; financial crisis; financial development; financial globalization; foreign debt; international lending; money supply; Wiley deal
    JEL: E51 F34 G21 N24 N14
    Date: 2023–07–26
  4. By: Neklyudova, Maria (Неклюдова, Мария) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The paper deals with the problem of representation of fear in the French 17th century memoirs where the memorialists when faced with sudden danger attempt to analyze their own and other people's reactions to it.
    Keywords: French 17th century, memorialism
  5. By: Facundo Alvaredo (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Denis Cogneau (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Thomas Piketty (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: We assess income inequality across French and British colonial empires between 1920 and 1960, exploiting for the first time income tax tabulations. As measured by top income shares, inequality was high in colonies. Europeans comprised the bulk of top income earners, and only a minority of autochthons could compete income-wise. Top income shares were no higher in settlement colonies, those territories were wealthier and the average European settler was less rich than the average expatriate. Inequality among autochthons was moderate, and inequality among Europeans was similar to that of the metropoles. The post-WWII fall in income inequality can be explained by the one among Europeans, mirroring that of the metropoles, and does not imply that the European/autochthon income gap was very much reduced. After independence, the mass recruitment of state employees induced a large increase in inequality among autochthons. Dualistic structures lost their racial dimension and changed shape, yet persisted.
    Keywords: Inequality, Top incomes, Colonialism, Africa, Asia
    Date: 2021–09
  6. By: Zhenin, Ilya (Женин, Илья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Mereminskiy, Stanislav (Мереминский, Станислав) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: At present, historical science is experiencing a new historiographical wave associated with the study of commemorative practices (anniversaries of significant events of the past, reevaluation of the activities and merits of historical, political and cultural “heroes”), which is reflected in the public space and largely shapes the current sociopolitical agenda. The systematization and analysis of existing theoretical and methodological approaches to comprehending the commemorative practices aimed at preserving and/or removing the memory of the past in the public space is one of the significant problems of social sciences in general and historical science in particular. Historical memory is an essential building block in the development of national identity. It is often based on one or more historical myths, which determine not only the society’s perception of the past, but also largely construct the attitude to the present (current) events. Understanding the mechanisms of how remembering the past determines group behavior and individual strategies of interaction with the surrounding world is important from the perspective of studying the transformation of national identity and the sustainability of the society as a whole. This determined the object of this study, namely the practice of constructing historical memory in the space of public history. The aim of the study is to systematize and analyze the existing theoretical and methodological approaches to comprehending the commemorative practices aimed at preserving the memory of the past and/or the process of forgetting the past in the public space. The analysis of theoretical models, as well as the mechanisms of formation, development, and consolidation of historical memory of events, figures, and “heroes” within this work will allow us to correlate the discourse of official history with the vernacular practices of remembering and/or forgetting about the past. In addition, a consideration of this issue based on the historical material of European countries (Great Britain and Germany) will allow us to see the models of developing and overcoming their own model of the past, which exist in the public space.
    Date: 2021–11–12
  7. By: Alexander Cuntz; Matthias Sahli
    Abstract: This paper studies the death effect on artists’ exhibitions and commercial success in the secondary art market. Based on a random sample of 1’000 popular artists born after the turn of the 20th century, we construct a novel panel data set of their worldwide exhibition history and auction transactions. By applying a regression discontinuity and event study design, we find an overall negative effect of artist death on the number of exhibitions. However, this post mortem effect disappears in longer term. Roughly ten years after death, exhibitions are back to pre-death levels. Arguably, transaction cost and higher auction prices after death also temporarily increase the average cost of exhibiting artworks, e.g. higher market valuation raises (unobserved) insurance cost for exhibitions. Hedonic auction price models confirm this intuition and suggest a significant price premium posthumously. We find substantial heterogeneity in the treatment depending on the age and reputation of the artist at death. Overall findings explain important mechanisms for the post mortem value of artistic work and have important policy implications for the creative sectors and the design of legacy stewardship rules, including a possible justification for rights granted post mortem such as copyright.
    Keywords: Death-effect, empirical, artists, museums, exhibitions, event-study, regression discontinuity design, auctions, hedonic price models
    JEL: D44 Z11
    Date: 2023–08
  8. By: Damien Douani (Chercheur indépendant); Thomas Michaud (ISI - Centre de recherche sur l’Innovation et les Stratégies Industrielles - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale); Laurent Ponthou (Orange Innovation)
    Abstract: Corporate science fiction consists of producing prospective videos featuring new services or technological innovations. Between 1997 and 2003, France Telecom R&D produced dozens of prospective scenarios, imagining the telecommunications technologies of the future. This article presents the history and characteristics of this original project thanks to the testimony of actors involved in the production of these short films. Moreover, in this article we view audiovisual fiction in a historical perspective by considering the extent to which they anticipate the emergence of design fiction, which is a creative technique that takes inspiration from science fiction to prototype new objects. Several iconic videos have demonstrated their ability to anticipate by several years major innovations such as telepresence, smartphones, voice control applications and many other Internet- and virtual-related technologies. These films essentially play an evangelistic role and have been used to test new concepts with future users.
    Abstract: La science-fiction d'entreprise consiste à créer notamment des vidéos prospectives mettant en scène de nouveaux services ou des innovations technologiques. France Télécom R&D a produit entre 1997 et 2003 des dizaines de scénarios prospectifs imaginant les technologies de télécommunications du futur. Cet article présente l'histoire et les caractéristiques de ce projet original grâce au témoignage d'acteurs impliqués dans la réalisation de ces courts-métrages. De plus, il place des fictions audiovisuelles dans une perspective historique en envisageant dans quelle mesure elles anticipèrent l'émergence du design fiction, cette technique de créativité reposant sur l'utilisation de la science-fiction pour prototyper de nouveaux objets. Plusieurs vidéos emblématiques ont démontré leur capacité à anticiper de plusieurs années des innovations majeures comme la téléprésence, les smartphones, les applications de commande vocale, et bon nombre de technologies relatives à Internet et au virtuel. Ces films ont essentiellement joué un rôle d'évangélisation et servirent à tester de nouveaux concepts auprès des futurs utilisateurs.
    Keywords: Science Fiction, Videos, Telecommunications, France Télécom R&D, Design fiction, Prospective, Science-fiction, Innovation, Vidéos, Design Fiction, Télécommunications
    Date: 2023
  9. By: Reutin, Mikhail (Реутин, Михаил) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: This work consists of two chapters and focuses on the formation of a new bourgeois ethics within the framework of the medieval mentality. This process is considered on the material of German folk preachers of the first half of the 14th century. The personalities of the preachers (16 names in total) are studied in Chapter 1; Chapter 2 contains an analysis of their doctrine, taken in its integral form. This teaching is based on Neoplatonist emanationism, according to which God is present in man as his image, a “spark”, a “synteresis”. God reveals himself in man's actions and in all his outward manifestations, so that man is basically an instrument through which God's actions are carried out. This is the “auto-determination” of man, where he is not grounded in church rituals and affiliation to particular social institutions, but in the objective dynamics unfolding in him. The paper concludes with an attempt at a new reading of Max Weber's study “Protestant Ethics and the Spirit of Capitalism”
    Date: 2021–11–12
  10. By: Artemenko, Olga (Артеменко, Ольга) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kuzmin, Michail (Кузьмин, Михаил) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Anzorova, Svetlana (Анзорова, Светлана) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Borgoyakova, Tatiana (Боргоякова, Татьяна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Gasanova, Patimat (Гасанова, Патимат) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Subrakov, Alexander (Субраков, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The relevance of the study is determined by an examination of the processes of reforming the education system in the Russian Empire between 1726 and 1917, which was carried out with the aim of modernizing the society and overcoming universal illiteracy. It is the degree of development of the education system that ensures the level of literacy, education of the population, forms certain personality qualities, which contributes to the state’s economic development and social growth. In this context, issues related to organizing education for the peoples of the Russian Empire, which was implemented within the framework of the doctrine of State integrity of a multinational State, deserve special attention in a multiethnic state, historically formed not by migrants but by local residents. Only Russia has such experience, and it needs to be studied. Subject of study. Reform of the education system from 1726 to 1917. The purpose of the study. Study of the experience of the Russian Empire in organizing educational activities aimed at forming interethnic harmony, preserving the integrity of a multinational state. Research tasks. Identification and description of periods of educational reform in the Russian Empire. Research methods. In solving specific research problems, comparative historical, biographical, synchronous, and diachronic methods were used. Sources of information. The implementation of the research tasks required a comprehensive identification of both archival and published sources: in the Russian State Historical Archive (RGIA), in the State Archive of the Russian Federation (GARF). In the Russian State Library (RGB), the authors reviewed the holdings of the Ministry of Education and its Departments, verbatim reports of the State Duma, personal funds of the Ministers of Education (V.G. Glazov, Peter M. von Kaufmann, I.I. Tolstoy, A.N. Schwartz). In the scientific archive of the Russian Academy of Education (RAO), documents were revealed in the collection of historical documents and the legacy of prominent teachers, public figures V.P. Vakhterov, N.V. Chekhov and others. Results of the study. The materials revealed and described are introduced into scientific circulation in a systematic way for the first time. They help restore the stages of formation of the education system in the Russian Empire and the results of its reform. The systematization of these diverse sources, complementing and clarifying each other, made it possible to restore a fairly solid picture of the formation of public education in the Russian Empire. The sources described contain valuable material for studying the development of education in the pre-revolutionary period, reveal the experience of the state in the formation of interethnic harmony, preserving the integrity of a multinational state. Findings of the study. The need to improve the literacy and education of the population of the state determines the economic, political, socio-cultural development of a multinational society. The effectiveness of modernization is more dependent on, and determined by, reforms in education, in the formation of a certain type of personality, which must be considered in a historical context. The study was conducted in 2021 by the employees of the Research Center for National Education Problems of the RANEPA Federal Institute for the Development of Education (FIRO).
    Keywords: school, reform, pre-revolutionary Russia, society, modernization, literacy, universal compulsory primary education
    Date: 2021–11–12
  11. By: Suss, Joel; Kemeny, Thomas; Connor, Dylan Shane
    Abstract: Wealth inequality has been sharply rising in the United States and across many other high-income countries. Due to a lack of data, we know little about how this trend has unfolded across locations within countries. Investigating this subnational geography of wealth is crucial, as from one generation to the next, wealth powerfully shapes opportunity and disadvantage across individuals and communities. Using machine-learning-based imputation to link newly assembled national historical surveys conducted by the U.S. Federal Reserve to population survey microdata, the data presented in this paper addresses this gap. The Geographic Wealth Inequality Database (“GEOWEALTH”) provides the first estimates of the level and distribution of wealth at various geographical scales within the United States from 1960 to 2020. The GEOWEALTH database enables new lines of investigation into the contribution of spatial wealth disparities to major societal challenges including wealth concentration, spatial income inequality, social mobility, housing unaffordability, and political polarization.
    JEL: J1 N0
    Date: 2023–08–01
  12. By: David Escamilla-Guerrero; Edward Kosack; Zachary Ward
    Abstract: The number of individuals forcibly displaced by conflicts has been rising in the past few decades. However, we know little about the dynamics—magnitude, timing, and persistence—of conflict-induced migration in the short run. We use novel high-frequency data to estimate the dynamic migration response to conflict for the case of the Mexican Revolution (1910-1917), one of the deadliest conflicts in world history. We find that, on average, insurgency events led to a large increase in migration rates of about 60 percent that lasted for a few months: after five months, migration rates reverted back to pre-violence levels. This finding masks substantial heterogeneity in treatment effects, as we find larger and more persistent effects for women and children. We show that violence was the main treatment channel, with variation in the intensity and nature of violence explaining the magnitude and persistence of the migration response. While migration costs, migrant networks, and land ownership moderated the migration response to conflict, we show that these factors affect different aspects of the response.
    JEL: F22 N31 N32 N36
    Date: 2023–08
  13. By: Chu, Angus; Peretto, Pietro; Furukawa, Yuichi
    Abstract: What are the origins of political fragmentation in Europe and political unification in China? This study develops a Malthusian growth model with multiple states to explore interstate competition and the endogenous evolution of human society from political fragmentation to a unified empire. Our model features an agricultural society with citizens and rulers in a Malthusian environment in which the expansion of one state may come at the expense of another state, depending on the elasticity of the land ratio with respect to the ratio of population between states. If this elasticity is less than unity, then multiple states coexist (i.e., political fragmentation) in the long run. However, if this elasticity is equal to unity, then only one state (i.e., political unification) will survive in the long run. Which state becomes the unified empire depends on the state's military power, agricultural productivity, and its rulers' preference for rent-seeking Leviathan taxation. We also discuss the historical relevance of these theoretical predictions.
    Keywords: Interstate competition; unified empire; Malthusian growth theory
    JEL: H2 H56 O4
    Date: 2023–08
  14. By: Krampf, Arie
    Abstract: In recent decades, neo-mercantilism has become a fashionable trend. The appeal of an export-led growth regime is often explained based on the material interests of the domestic growth coalition. This article offers an alternative explanation based on the geopolitical territorial interests of the state. It argues that states may endorse an export-led growth model not because of the demands of social groups but because the political elite believes a neo-mercantilist strategy is more consistent with the state's geopolitical preferences. The article defines this claim as the geopolitical hypothesis of regime change. The geopolitical hypothesis does not imply that social groups are irrelevant to the process. Social groups, the article argues, can play the role of ex-ante transformative actors or of ex-post stabilizing actors. Whereas society-centered theories underline the ex-ante transformative role of social groups, the geopolitical hypothesis argues that social groups can also play an ex-post stabilizing role. Based on the case of Israel, the article argues that during the early 2000s, after the outbreak of the second Intifada, Israel shifted from a consumption-led growth regime to an export-led growth regime. The transition, the article argues, was driven by the hawkish political elite, which prioritized nationalist objectives associated with the continuation and expansion of the occupation. The article concludes by arguing that the case of Israel is exemplary and not unique and that the geopolitical hypothesis can explain the adoption of export-led growth models in other cases.
    Keywords: Export-led growth strategy, neo-mercantilism, growth coalition, territorial logic of capitalism
    JEL: O53 O43 N15 E12
    Date: 2023
  15. By: Fergusson, Leopoldo (Facultad de Economía, Universidad de los Andes); Mejía, Javier (Department of Political Science, Stanford University,); Robinson, James A. (University of Chicago, Harris School of Public Policy and Department of Political Science); Torres, Santiago (The Pearson Institute, Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago,)
    Abstract: We propose a framework to explain why some societies may end up with different constitutional solutions to the problem of maintaining order in the face of self-interested behavior. Though the salient intellectual tradition since Hobbes has focused on how institutional design is used to eradicate violence, our framework illustrates that equilibrium constitutions may in fact have to deliberately allow for violence. This arises because some societies are unable to use institutions to influence income distribution. In this case, a constitutional tolerance of violence emerges as a credible way for an incumbent to meet the participation constraint of a challenger. We illustrate the results with the comparative constitutional history of the US and Colombia.
    Keywords: Order; Constitutions; Violence; Institutions.
    JEL: D70 D74 H19 P00
    Date: 2023–08–16
  16. By: François Facchini (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Cette note de lecture se propose de résumer le propos du dernier livre du PR Bertrand Blancheton (Université de Bordeaux) sur la dette publique. Elle défend que le recours aux travaux des économistes, qui traitent de la liberté économique comme un facteur de croissance et une dimension morale aurait permis de poser un autre diagnostic et de soutenir une feuille de route sensiblement différente pour réduire la dette publique que celle qui est défendue dans le livre. Ce dernier s'organise autour de douze chapitres, chacun abordant une question relative à la dette publique : la mesure de la dette (Chapitre 1), les caractéristiques de la dette française (Chapitre 2), la hausse plus forte de la dette française par rapport à ses principaux concurrents et partenaires (Chapitre 3), la justification de la dette publique (Chapitre 4), la montée de la dette publique en France depuis 1970 (Chapitre 5), la critique de l'idée que la dette publique française serait la conséquence de la loi de 1973 sur la Banque de France (Chapitre 6), la relation qu'entretient la dette et la construction européenne via les critères de convergence (Chapitre 7), les liens qu'entretiennent la dynamique de la dette et la politique monétaire (Chapitre 8), la soutenabilité de la dette (Chapitre 9), les expériences de désendettement (Chapitre 10), les liens entre la dette publique et la hausse des dépenses publiques (Chapitre 11) et pour conclure l'élaboration d'une feuille de route pour réduire la dette et équilibrer le solde budgétaire (Chapitre 12). Le propos est peu technique, et soutient que la France devra rembourser sa dette par une réforme des impôts et une baisse des dépenses. Il défend, en ce sens, une position plutôt non keynésienne et que ne renierait pas les économistes classiques. Le livre ne fait, cependant, aucune référence aux travaux des économistes libéraux qui ont travaillé sur la dette publique comme James Buchanan et Richard Wagner. La plupart des solutions proposées à la dette publique se placent d'ailleurs dans un cadre institutionnel inchangé, sans modification du partage des compétences entre le privé et le public.
    Keywords: dette publique, impôt, dépenses publiques, Blancheton, taux d'intérêt, privatisation
    Date: 2023
  17. By: Sen, Sharmi; Maitra, Adit; Cameron, Alistair
    Abstract: Instructions: Hariri & Wingender add new nuance to the traditional wisdom that economic modernisation is a path to democracy. They show that the diffusion of repressive, military technologies, causes a decline in the number of democratisations in the following years, and argue that this is because of a greater ability to forcefully oppress popular dissent. We conduct a robustness replication exercise, focussed on three tests: i) Are findings robust to alternative weightings of individual technologies in the instrument for country-aggregate military technology? ii) Is high leverage in individual countries, regions or time periods driving the global findings? iii) Are the strength of the IV and its independence of important macroeconomic indicators a chance occurrence? The main findings of the paper are largely robust to these tests.
    Date: 2023
  18. By: Kurt Graden Lunsford
    Abstract: I show that business cycles can generate most of the low-frequency movements in the unemployment rate. First, I provide evidence that the unemployment rate is stationary, while its flows have unit roots. Then, I model the log unemployment rate as the error correction term of log labor flows in a vector error correction model (VECM) with intercepts that change over the business cycle. Feeding historical expansions and recessions into the VECM generates large low-frequency movements in the unemployment rate. Frequent recessions from the late 1960s to the early 1980s interrupt labor market recoveries and ratchet the unemployment rate upward. Long expansions in the 1980s and 1990s undo this upward ratcheting. Finally, the VECM predicts that the unemployment rate will be near 3.6 percent after a 10-year expansion and that lower unemployment rates are possible with longer expansions.
    Keywords: cointegration; common trend; HP trend; labor flows; longer-run unemployment rate
    JEL: C32 E24 E32 J64
    Date: 2023–08–17
  19. By: Borgschulte, Mark (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); Guenzel, Marius (Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania); Liu, Canyao (Yale University); Malmendier, Ulrike (University of California, Berkeley)
    Abstract: We assess the long-term effects of managerial stress on aging and mortality. First, we show that exposure to industry distress shocks during the Great Recession produces visible signs of aging in CEOs. Applying neural-network based machine-learning techniques to pre- and post-distress pictures, we estimate an increase in so-called apparent age by one year. Second, using data on CEOs since the mid-1970s, we estimate a 1.1-year decrease in life expectancy after an industry distress shock, but a two-year increase when anti-takeover laws insulate CEOs from market discipline. The estimated health costs are significant, also relative to other known health risks.
    Keywords: managerial stress, life expectancy, apparent-age estimation, job demands, industry distress, visual machine-learning, corporate governance
    JEL: G34 I12 M12
    Date: 2023–08
  20. By: Thomas Michaud (ISI - Centre de recherche sur l’Innovation et les Stratégies Industrielles - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale)
    Abstract: Imaginary representations of hackers in science fiction have evolved since the 1960s. Cyberpunks have helped popularize the image of a rebellious, often anarchical, individual, who wields considerable technological power. In this article, a panorama of the most famous works featuring hackers is drawn up. Neuromancer, Snow Crash, Sword Art Online, The Matrix or Salvation are the most notable. The hacker character can either be a hero defending libertarian values, or a dangerous terrorist harmful to the human race. These representations have, in turn, had an influence on representations of cybercrime. They have influenced vocations among future computer scientists, as well as inspired the research of cybersecurity specialists. At the economic level, hackerspaces are based on a philosophy inspired by the digital anarchism of cyberpunks.
    Abstract: Les représentations imaginaires des hackers dans la science-fiction ont évolué depuis les années 1960. Les cyberpunks ont contribué à populariser l'image d'un individu révolté, souvent anarchiste, détenteur d'un pouvoir technologique considérable. Un panorama des oeuvres les plus connues mettant en scène des hackers est dressé. Neuromancien, Le Samourai Virtuel, Sword Art Online, Matrix ou Salvation sont les plus marquantes. Le hacker peut notamment être un héros défendant des valeurs libertariennes, ou un dangereux terroriste nuisible au genre humain. Ces fictions ont eu une influence sur les représentations de la cybercriminalité. Elles ont suscité des vocations chez les futurs informaticiens, et inspiré les recherches de spécialistes de cybersécurité. Au niveau économique, les hackerspaces s'appuient sur une philosophie inspirée par l'anarchisme numérique des cyberpunks.
    Keywords: Cybercriminality, Anarchism, Science-fiction, Hackers, Science fiction, Cybercriminalité, Anarchisme, Cyberpunk
    Date: 2023–01
  21. By: Randy A. Becker; Jordan Burt; Wayne Gray; Tanya Stasio
    Abstract: This note provides a set of documentation for the 1973 and 1978 Surveys of Water Use in Manufacturing (SWUM). We report the connections between the information found in the 1973 and 1978 SWUM publications and the underlying microdata, using spreadsheets that link every column in the published tables with the corresponding variable names. We also provide a brief description of the process we used to identify those connections.
    Date: 2023–07
  22. By: Armand Desprairies (CRDT - Centre de Recherche Droit et Territoire(s) - EA - URCA - Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne - MSH-URCA - Maison des Sciences Humaines de Champagne-Ardenne - URCA - Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne)
    Date: 2022
  23. By: Adam Scavette
    Abstract: New Jersey voters approved legalized gambling for Atlantic City in a 1976 referendum, making it the second state after Nevada in 1931. The state explicitly leveraged the city's regional monopoly, which it held from 1978 through 1992, on casinos east of the Mississippi River as an economic development strategy to revive the blighted seaside resort town. The literature on the economic development effects of casinos suggests that sparsely populated areas without nearby competing gambling venues tend to benefit the most. Using a difference-in-differences approach, I model the economic impact of casino legalization on the Atlantic City Metropolitan Area (Atlantic County, NJ) across five-, ten-, and fifteen-year treatment horizons. I find a significant positive impact of legalized casinos on personal income and housing prices for only the five-year treatment horizon, and significant positive impacts for payroll employment and wages across all three treatment horizons.
    Keywords: casinoes; monopoly; economic development
    Date: 2023–05

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