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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2023‒08‒14
29 papers chosen by |
| By: | George Alogoskoufis |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews, analyses and interprets the history of the state and the economy of modern Greece, from the eve of the war for independence in 1821 to the present. It identifies three major historical cycles, the cycle of state and nation building, 1821-1898, the cycle of national expansion and consolidation, 1899-1949, and the post-1950 cycle of economic and social development. During these two hundred years, Greece managed to almost triple its national territory, to increase its population by almost 15 times and to increase its real GDP per capita by another 15 times. Yet, Greece was also characterized by long periods of low economic growth and political and economic instability, including national ‘schisms’ and civil wars, high inflation, international over-indebtedness, and sovereign debt crises and defaults. The analysis focuses on the key drivers of these developments, exploring the dynamic interactions of ideas and values, economic and social conditions, political and economic institutions, geopolitical circumstances and international economic and financial regimes. |
| Keywords: | Modern Greece, economic history, institutions, economic growth, fiscal policy, monetary policy |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hel:greese:184&r=his |
| By: | Drakopoulos, Stavros A. |
| Abstract: | Job satisfaction and life satisfaction research (economics of wellbeing) is an established and booming research field. However, until the late 1970s, the study of the impact of economic variables on subjective wellbeing was considered to be outside the domain of economics. The main reason was the methodological hostility of orthodox economists towards incorporating "subjective" and "psychological" variables. The legacy of economics as a positive social science that dealt with observed or revealed behavior only, was a major obstacle for economists to study subjective wellbeing. The main exception was the pioneering work of Richard Easterlin in 1974, who attempted to account for the discrepancy between income increases and overall life satisfaction. Opening up the communication of economists with psychologists in happiness research, Easterlin relied on references from psychology and especially from social psychology in order to construct his arguments. Influenced by Easterlin, references to theoretical and empirical work in psychology became more apparent when happiness economics attracted more interest by the end of the 20th century. After showing its rich historical past of interaction with psychology, the paper argues that this stance is contrary to the established mainstream tradition and methodology. Further, it demonstrates that leading figures of happiness economics adopt a conscious methodological position towards interacting with psychology, and this puts them at odds with the mainstream economics methodological approach. It is also argued that the economics of happiness attitude towards psychology is linked to other important differences of methodological nature. The paper identifies three major points of diversion: utility cardinality and comparability, empirical methodology, and the specification of agents’ utility function and the ensuing policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Economics and Psychology; Economics of Wellbeing; Economic Methodology; History of Economic Thought |
| JEL: | B20 B40 I30 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:117891&r=his |
| By: | André Lapidus (PHARE - Philosophie, Histoire et Analyse des Représentations Économiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the way the Scholastic argument against usury, which culminated in the 13th century with Thomas Aquinas's question on interest loans in the Summa Theologiae, found an end with Hugo Grotius's introduction of economic issues, in De Jure Belli ac Pacis (1625). Whereas Grotius inherited at least part of his predecessors' repugnance of interest lending, he found in his questioning of categories from Roman law the source of both a criticism of the main features of the Scholastic argument and an alternative analysis of interest loans in which the income received by the lender is explained and legitimate. |
| Keywords: | Grotius, Usury, Interest, Contract, Money loan |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03989450&r=his |
| By: | Anna Bindler; Randi Hjalmarsson; Stephen Machin; Melissa Rubio-Ramos |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkpbs:050&r=his |
| By: | Andrea Bernini; Giovanni Facchini; Marco Tabellini; Cecilia Testa |
| Abstract: | The 1965 Voting Rights Act (VRA) paved the road to Black empowerment. How did southern whites respond? Leveraging newly digitized data on county-level voter registration rates by race between 1956 and 1980, and exploiting pre-determined variation in exposure to the federal intervention, we document that the VRA increases both Black and white political participation. Consistent with the VRA triggering counter-mobilization, the surge in white registrations is concentrated where Black political empowerment is more tangible and salient due to the election of African Americans in county commissions. Additional analysis suggests that the VRA has long-lasting negative effects on whites' racial attitudes. |
| JEL: | D72 H70 J15 N92 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31425&r=his |
| By: | Yannick Dupraz (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Andreas Ferrara |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal effect of losing a father in the U.S. Civil War on children's long-run socioeconomic outcomes. Linking military records from the 2.2 million Union Army soldiers with the 1860 U.S. population census, we track soldiers' sons into the 1880 and 1900 census. Sons of soldiers who died had lower occupational income scores and were less likely to work in a high-or semiskilled job as opposed to being low-skilled or farmers. These effects persisted at least until the 1900 census. Our results are robust to instrumenting paternal death with the mortality rate of the father's regiment, which we argue was driven by military strategy that did not take into account the social origins of soldiers. Prewar family wealth is a strong mitigating factor: there is no effect of losing a father in the top quartile of the wealth distribution. |
| Keywords: | U.S. civil war, Orphans, Intergenerational Mobility |
| Date: | 2023–02–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04127077&r=his |
| By: | Tim Krieger; Daniel Nientiedt |
| Abstract: | The economic tradition of ordoliberalism, understood as the theoretical and policy ideas of the Freiburg School, emerged in 1930s and 1940s Germany. In the years thereafter, it was quickly superseded by Keynesianism and other theories imported from the English-speaking world. The crisis in Keynesian economics in the mid-1970s led to what has been described as a “renaissance of ordoliberal reasoning” (Gebhard Kirchgässner) during the late 1970s and the 1980s. The present paper describes this development in detail and shows how it affected the academic discourse and, more indirectly, policymaking. In academic economics, ordoliberal concepts were used to inform debates about pressing issues of the day such as unemployment, social security reform, competition policy, the provision of public goods, and European integration. There was, however, no consensus on the methodological question of whether ordoliberalism could be fully integrated into international research programs such as the new institutional economics or constitutional economics. The paper argues that the renaissance of ordoliberalism failed to have a lasting impact on German academic economics and discusses possible implications of this finding for the future of the ordoliberal research agenda. |
| Keywords: | ordoliberalism, Freiburg school, economic policy, social market economy, Keynesianisnm, European integration |
| JEL: | B29 D40 E60 H60 P16 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10517&r=his |
| By: | Ran Abramitzky; Leah Platt Boustan; Elisa Jácome; Santiago Pérez; Juan David Torres |
| Abstract: | We combine full-count Census data (1850–1940) with Census/ACS samples (1950–2020) to provide the first nationally representative long-run series (1850–2020) of incarceration rates for immigrants and the US-born. As a group, immigrants had higher incarceration rates than US-born white men before 1870, similar rates between 1880-1950, and lower rates since 1960. Although there are substantial differences in incarceration by origin country, the relative decline in incarceration since 1960 occurred among immigrants from all sending regions. This decline cannot be explained by changes in immigrants’ observable characteristics or immigration policy, but may reflect immigrants’ resilience to economic shocks. |
| JEL: | K4 N31 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31440&r=his |
| By: | Karen Clay |
| Abstract: | Both energy and the environment are inputs into production, influencing the economy and the overall welfare of the population. While the economy itself has been a central focus of economic history from its inception, energy and the environment have received more limited attention. On the energy side, the relative lack of attention reflects economic historians' focus on labor, capital, and technology. Two areas that have received attention are the effects of energy on the spatial location of economic activity and the importance of coal for the Industrial Revolution. On the environmental side, the relative lack of attention likely reflects the focus on the positive aspects of industrialization and the difficulty of finding data related to air, water, and land pollution. One environmental area that has received attention is water pollution from human waste, which had large mortality impacts, particularly in cities. This essay reviews long run trends in energy use and water and air pollution and then turns to the energy and environmental literatures in economic history. The conclusion offers some thoughts regarding opportunities for further research in energy and the environment. |
| JEL: | N50 N70 Q32 Q53 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31408&r=his |
| By: | David Chilosi (King’s College London); Carlo Ciccarelli (CEIS & DEF, University of Rome "Tor Vergata") |
| Abstract: | We estimate and internationally compare the evolution of GDP pc in central-northern and, for the first time, southern Italy in 1400-1861. To address concerns on the representativeness of daily wages, we rely on an unconventional demand approach, using a general equilibrium model and occupational data. Our estimates are consistent with an “industrious revolution” in the “long 18th century” (1650-1800). Central-northern Italy stagnated. Southern Italy, though poorer, was growing slowly. Our comparison suggests that the “great divergence” between Europe and Asia in the 18th century was rooted in contingent institutional developments, rather than persistent differences. |
| Date: | 2023–07–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:562&r=his |
| By: | Kampanelis, Sotiris; Elizalde, Aldo; Ioannides, Yannis M. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the long-term economic impacts of the adoption of local knowledge during European colonisation. We use the case of Australia, where Aboriginal knowledge of the landscape was integral to colonial exploration and settlement. To quantify the effects of this knowledge, we construct a newly digitised and georeferenced dataset of trade routes created by Aboriginal people based on oral traditions, known as Songlines. Our results indicate that Aboriginal trade routes are strongly associated with current economic activity as measured by nighttime satellite imagery. We attribute this association to path dependence and agglomeration effects that emanate from the transport infrastructure built by Europeans roughly along these routes, which have agglomerated economic activity. Finally, by exploiting exogenous variation in optimal travel routes, we provide evidence that our results are not entirely determined by the inherent characteristics of Australian topography, but rather by Aboriginal knowledge. |
| Keywords: | Aboriginal trade routes, Songlines, colonialism, agglomeration, Australia |
| JEL: | N77 O10 R12 Z10 Z13 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:202307&r=his |
| By: | Clémence Thebaut (NET - Neuroépidémiologie Tropicale - CHU Limoges - Institut d'Epidémiologie Neurologique et de Neurologie Tropicale - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - GEIST - Institut Génomique, Environnement, Immunité, Santé, Thérapeutique - UNILIM - Université de Limoges, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, UNILIM - Université de Limoges) |
| Abstract: | Objective: We seek here to draw on the methods and tools put forward by Michel Foucault in The Order of the Things (1966) to shed light on history of welfare economics. More specifically we consider that the rejection of interpersonal comparisons that foreshadowed the marginalist revolution and the transition to ordinal measures of utility during the 19th century can be explained by the shift from the classical episteme to a modern episteme which is described by Foucault. Method: To explore this hypothesis, we drawn on the method of archaeological knowledge, proposed by Foucault (1966, 1969). We started by building a corpus using an incremental research strategy (the "snowball" method), starting from first bibliographic reference on history of welfare economics Baujard (2013, 2014). Then, we study the various statements within a corpus, in order to identify regularities and turning points both in semantics and concepts, so as to compare discourse "styles". Unlike other approaches in social sciences, the method of knowledge archaeology consists in analysing scientific discourses in themselves, outside the social, economic and political context that led them to emerge. Results: Using this methodology, we first examine to what extent the early utilitarianism is typical of the classical episteme as described by Foucault, which entails (i) the use of a mechanistic framework, (ii) the use of mathematics and more generally (iii) an effort to classify different entities. Second we examined how the rejection of interpersonal comparisons in the marginalist literature and the transition to ordinal utilities could be typical of the modern episteme, through the development of positivist stand and transcendental function of the notion of utility. |
| Abstract: | Cet article s'inscrit dans le cadre d'un projet de recherche visant à mobiliser les méthodes et outils proposés par Michel Foucault pour apporter un éclairage sur un ensemble de discussions que soulève l'évaluation économique en santé. Nous nous intéressons ici à l'ancrage épistémologique des méthodes de révélation des préférences individuelles issues de l'économie du bien-être, qui sont aujourd'hui utilisées pour valoriser les bénéfices en santé, en nous appuyant sur la typologie des épistémès de Foucault dans les Mots et les choses. Plus précisément, nous envisageons que le rejet des comparaisons interpersonnelles, que préfigure la révolution marginaliste et la transition vers une mesure ordinale des utilités, s'explique par le passage d'une épistémè classique à une épistémè moderne. La question du caractère cardinal ou ordinal de la mesure de l'utilité reste centrale pour l'évaluation économique en santé. En effet, les méthodes d'évaluation des bénéfices en santé, notamment au moyen des QALY, se rapprochent d'une mesure cardinale, contrairement au paradigme de la nouvelle économie du bien-être dans lequel elle est censée s'inscrire. |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification: B12, D61, D63, I10 Welfare economics, Health economic evaluation, Epistemology, Foucault |
| Date: | 2023–06–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04139952&r=his |
| By: | Rogne, Adrian F.; Knutsen, Tora Kjærnes; Modalsli, Jørgen |
| Abstract: | The great expansion of higher educational systems in Western countries in the latter half of the 20th century had a profound impact on educational opportunities and is central to understanding the reversal of the gender gap in higher education. In Norway, major educational reforms starting in the late 1960s aimed at making higher education more accessible for large segments of the population, particularly young women who were graduating from high school at an increasing rate. This occurred through the upgrading, establishment, and gradual expansion of local and regional colleges across the country, especially in female-dominated fields associated with work in expanding public welfare sectors. Theories and previous research have suggested that the gendered profile of educational expansions contributed to the cementing of horizontal gender segregation patterns in education and the labor market. We shed light on these processes using new and detailed data on the establishment and upgrading of higher educational institutions between 1969 and 1993. Linking these data to individual-level register data allows us to study how regional variation in educational opportunities affected the educational attainment and field of study choices of young women and men, using a difference-in-differences (DiD)/event study approach. While increased access to college education was a prerequisite for the reversal of the gender gap, our findings suggest that the location of colleges mattered very little. Colleges had, at most, a very modest impact on local educational attainment and gendered field of study choices. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy and sociological theory. |
| Date: | 2023–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:xej64&r=his |
| By: | Benoît Pigé (CREGO - Centre de Recherche en Gestion des Organisations (EA 7317) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UB - Université de Bourgogne - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] - UFC - Université de Franche-Comté - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE]) |
| Abstract: | It is no longer possible to trust an institution, to believe that, despite the human weaknesses inherent in our humanity, there are organizations that place the general interest above the particular interest, that pursue the common good while disregarding their own. Transcendence continues to exist, but it is no longer common, it is now singular, linked to individuals or close-knit communities who share common values for a time, in order to bind themselves together in the face of danger; but as soon as the danger has passed, the community dissolves, and each individual returns to his or her own interests. It is therefore necessary to examine the factors that lead certain religious institutions to claim a dimension that is not merely organizational, but which receives its stamp from a spiritual and less visible source. To do this, we propose to take as our starting point an apparently banal affair of morals involving two Dominicans, which highlights mechanisms that are generally passed over in silence. In fact, the two Dominicans in question experienced alternating periods of quasi-idolatry and strong disapproval. Yet it seems to us that, through the case of these two Dominicans, the place of the Catholic Church in the world is at stake. What is the future of this Church, is it eternal, or is it doomed to disappear? In the case of Jean Vanier, Thomas Philippe and Marie-Dominique Philippe, the accusations against each of them were made after their death, through often anonymous testimony and without the benefit of a defense lawyer or cross-examination of the alleged victims. Of the six female figures presented in Tangi Cavalin's French book (l'Affaire, Ed. Cerf), the first (Odette de Beaulieu) bears witness to the charisma (spiritual as well as physical) that Thomas Philippe exuded in his youth. He attracted both men and women to him. The fourth (Alix Parmentier) is presented not as a victim, but as an accomplice guilty of abuse (based on the testimony of a seminarian-turned-priest who remains anonymous, and who believes he was a victim while being madly in love with her). Only three women publicly claim to have been abused. In Tangi Cavalin's account, which has been picked up by all the media, the Philippe brothers (and indirectly Jean Vanier) are sexual perverts who have camouflaged their perversity under a mystical theology. In the account proposed in this article, the Philippe brothers and Jean Vanier are guilty of having instituted a form of governance that leaves room for possible disorder, but the accusations of sexual abuse levelled against their persons appear to lack any solid foundation. By formulating dogmas about Mary and then considering Mary and the Church to be two faces of the same supernatural reality, the Catholic Church has put forward an image of itself as free from sin, as immaculate by a grace received from Christ. The revelation of sexual abuse in America and Europe (pending revelations about the Catholic Church in Africa) runs counter to this ideal of purity that the Catholic liturgy proclaims for its Church. For decades, the bishops' main concern has been to hush up scandals and neutralize the victims' voices. With today's revelations, natural reaction is to try and salvage what can be salvaged by throwing overboard anything that might present a hint of sexual corruption. Because what's at stake is the purity of the Catholic Church, it seems necessary to eliminate all those who have behaved in a way that is sexually inappropriate by today's standards, even if they are dead and unable to defend themselves. Our thesis is that the absolute quest for purity is not inspired by the Spirit of God, but by human motivations that come under the understanding of psyches. That sexual abuse should be the subject of denunciation, police investigation and human judgment is a necessity for life in society. The Church must not be above the law. If religious, priests, bishops or cardinals commit abuse, they must be judged and serve their sentences if found guilty. On the other hand, for the Church or religious or social groups to enact their own norms to punish people in the media without giving them the opportunity to defend themselves is not only contrary to human law, but also contrary to the Gospel. If we cease to consider the Catholic Church as God's people on earth, and instead approach it as a religious institution with its own particular approach, its own doctrines, its own particular history - in short, if we approach the Catholic Church with a secular scientific approach, as we can do for any human institution - then it is possible to ask questions that would be ludicrous if the Catholic Church were considered as instituted by God. The same deconstruction that has been carried out on leaders of divine right (recognizing that a head of state is a human being subject to human desires and interests, even if he aspires to something greater) must be carried out on organizations of divine right (recognizing that they are governed by historical, sociological and cultural influences, even if they refer to something greater, something transcendent). Questions of priestly celibacy, papal primacy, hierarchical and clerical organization cease to be theological questions and become anthropological ones. If God exists, and if Jesus is the awaited Messiah who reveals Him and remains present in Humanity through the Holy Spirit, what then are the organizational choices that make it possible in a given era, in a particular context, to bear witness to and account for this transcendence? Understanding the Catholic Church as a human organization with a religious purpose enables us to look at organizational choices from an anthropological perspective, i.e. from the angle of incarnation. This does not mean excluding the divine dimension, but it does mean that transcendence is expressed in concrete, human institutions, marked by historical, geographical and cultural contingencies. Thus, choices of governance, such as the extent of the pope's powers (the equivalent of a CEO in international corporations) or the power of synods (akin to general assemblies) and their composition, must be examined in their concrete consequences as they are today, and not as they were in the Middle Ages in a Europe then dominated by conflicts between secular and religious power. The Second Vatican Council marked a major break with the tradition of the Catholic Church. Pope John XXIII made a radical break with the practices of his predecessor. Instead of believing he held the truth, he opened doors and windows to gather the feelings of the diverse Catholic bishops and give them constitutional expression. Pope Francis is seeking to continue on this path by extending this openness to the whole Catholic people through the synodal process. In doing so, he is coming up against major organizational issues. It is not possible to physically gather all these people together. The chosen approach was to give the national bishops' conferences a degree of autonomy to gather the requests, feelings and opinions of Catholics at parish level. The bishops collect the information, synthesize it and pass on what they consider to be the most important, culminating in a universal (Catholic) synthesis. Clearly, this process rests with the bishops and the conferences. They are the ones who decide what is worthy of interest and what is not. No process of validation by the Catholic people or negotiation between diocesan or Roman authorities and local Catholics is foreseen. It's just a matter of information feedback, spectacular though it may be, but with no capacity to make other points of view than those of the bishops heard. The practice that has really succeeded in bringing about profound change in institutions is one in which entities have designated delegates who have met physically and been able to deliberate collectively on the measures to be taken to adapt the state of a country or institution to its context. In France, this gave rise to the French Revolution, which was the catalyst for the transformation of Europe. In the United States, it gave rise to a federal unity which, from the founding fathers to the death of President Franklin Roosevelt on April 12, 1945, enabled the United States to emerge from a slave-owning economic system and defend freedom throughout the world. As these examples show, such an approach is uncontrollable. Something inconceivably revolutionary can come out of such a meeting of delegates. However, this practice is not new to the Catholic Church; it has existed and continues to exist in the form of diocesan synods. In the 1990s and 2000s, most French dioceses set up this type of synod. Delegates were appointed or elected, with segmentation of the various components of the diocesan Church: geographical parishes, religious congregations, charitable movements, youth, women, etc. The aim was to achieve a common understanding of the diocesan Church, a diversified and fairly comprehensive representation of the players that make up the diocesan Catholic Church. These diocesan synods brought about a profound renewal in the dioceses. The emblematic example is undoubtedly that of Poitiers, where the then bishop implemented the reforms suggested by his synod assembly. |
| Date: | 2023–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-04150652&r=his |
| By: | Mayntz, Renate |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at changes in macrosociological paradigms for social development that traditionally stretch from the primitive society through the stratified medieval society to the image of a functionally differentiated modern society. Changing the perspective from a systems theoretical view of societies to an actor perspective, I focus on populations of individual actors and organizations as collective actors. Over recent decades, important structural changes in the nature of populations and of organizations have taken place in the Western world. The most important relate to economic globalization and financial internationalization. An increasingly flexible population and narrowly goal-specific organizations produce a situation of societal instability that appears to characterize the present, though its causes reach back half a century. |
| Keywords: | Integrationsbias der Systemtheorie, Konfliktlinien in gegenwärtigen Gesellschaften, Systemzerfall und seine Ursachen, conflict lines in present societies, integration bias of systems theory, system decomposition and its sources |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mpifgd:233&r=his |
| By: | Tisch, Daria; Ischinsky, Emma |
| Abstract: | Rising wealth inequality is both a topic in recent policy discussion and in the social sciences. Despite the general interest in wealth concentration, we know only little about the largest privately held fortunes. To help fill this gap we analyze the historical origins of Germany's 1, 032 largest fortunes in 2019. In particular, we identify the share of entrenched fortunes - fortunes which date back to the beginning of the twentieth century - and ask to what extent they differ from more recently established ones. Furthermore, we examine in an exploratory way if entrenched fortunes are connected to fortunes with more recent origins through family lines. We use a journalistic rich list published by the manager magazin in 2019, which we link with both rich lists from 1912/1914 and Wikidata. We find that about eight percent of today's fortunes can be traced back to fortunes held by the same families in 1913. Regression analyses show that entrenched fortunes rank on average higher on the rich list than the remaining ones. Descriptive network analyses indicate that some of today's largest fortunes are intertwined through marital lines, hinting at social closure at the top. Our findings indicate that the accumulation and perpetuation of fortunes over many generations is an important feature of top wealth in Germany. |
| Keywords: | elite, family, inheritance, network analysis, super-rich, wealth perpetuation, Elite, Erbschaft, Familie, Netzwerkanalyse, Reichtum, Vermögen |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mpifgd:231&r=his |
| By: | Hatton, Timothy J. (University of Essex) |
| Abstract: | Studies of the determinants of emigration from Europe from 1850 to 1913 include the gains to migrants but often neglect the costs. One component of those costs is earnings forgone on the voyage. In this paper I present new data on the voyage times for emigrants from the UK traveling to the United States and to Australia. Between 1853-7 and 1909-13 the voyage time from Liverpool to New York fell from 38 days to just 8 days (or 79%). Over the same years, the emigrant voyage to Sydney fell by more in absolute terms, from 105 days to 46, but by less in relative terms (56%). Differences in profiles of travel times are explained with a focus on the relative efficiency of sail and steam and (for Australia) the use of the Suez Canal. Data series for fare prices and foregone wage costs are combined to create new series on the 'total' cost of emigrant voyages. Econometric analysis of UK emigration to the US, Canada and Australia supports the view that time costs mattered. |
| Keywords: | international migration, steam ships, voyage times |
| JEL: | F22 O33 N73 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16281&r=his |
| By: | Sichko, Christopher T. |
| Keywords: | Labor and Human Capital, International Development, Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:335558&r=his |
| By: | Jacks, David S. (National University of Singapore); Pendakur, Krishna (Simon Fraser University); Shigeoka, Hitoshi (Simon Fraser University); Wray, Anthony (University of Southern Denmark) |
| Abstract: | Despite a recent and dramatic re-evaluation of the health consequences of alcohol consumption, very little is known about the effects of in utero exposure to alcohol on long-run outcomes such as later-life mortality. Here, we investigate how state by year variation in alcohol control arising from the repeal of federal prohibition affects mortality for cohorts born in the 1930s. We find that individuals born in wet states experienced higher later-life mortality than individuals born in dry states, translating into a 3.3% increase in mortality rates between 1990 and 2004 for affected cohorts. |
| Keywords: | alcohol, federal prohibition, in utero exposure, later-life mortality |
| JEL: | H73 I18 J18 N32 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16287&r=his |
| By: | Victor Yakovenko (University of Maryland); Danial Ludwig (University of Maryland) |
| Abstract: | The first part of this paper is a brief survey of the approaches to economic inequality based on ideas from statistical physics and kinetic theory. These include the Boltzmann kinetic equation, the time-reversal symmetry, the ergodicity hypothesis, entropy maximization, and the Fokker-Planck equation. The origins of the exponential Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution and the Pareto power law are discussed in relation to additive and multiplicative stochastic processes. The second part of the paper analyzes income distribution data in the USA for the time period 1983-2018 using a two-class decomposition. We present overwhelming evidence that the lower class (more than 90% of the population) is described by the exponential distribution, whereas the upper class (about 4% of the population in 2018) by the power law. We show that the significant growth of inequality during this time period is due to the sharp increase in the upper-class income share, whereas relative inequality within the lower class remains constant. We speculate that the expansion of the upper-class population and income shares may be due to increasing digitization and non-locality of the economy in the last 40 years. |
| Keywords: | econophysics, economic inequality, Boltzmann–Gibbs distribution, Pareto power law, two-class society, stochastic processes |
| JEL: | D31 N32 D63 H24 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2023-651&r=his |
| By: | Bauernschuster, Stefan (University of Passau); Blum, Matthias (German Medical Association); Hornung, Erik (University of Cologne); Koenig, Christoph (University of Rome Tor Vergata) |
| Abstract: | How do health crises affect election results? We combine a panel of election results from 1893–1933 with spatial heterogeneity in excess mortality due to the 1918 Influenza to assess the pandemic's effect on voting behavior across German constituencies. Applying a dynamic differences-in-differences approach, we find that areas with higher influenza mortality saw a lasting shift towards left-wing parties. We argue that pandemic intensity increased the salience of public health policy, prompting voters to reward parties signaling competence in health issues. Alternative explanations such as pandemic-induced economic hardship, punishment of incumbents for inadequate policy responses, or polarization of the electorate towards more extremist parties are not supported by our findings. |
| Keywords: | pandemics, elections, health, voting behavior, issue salience, issue ownership, Weimar Republic |
| JEL: | D72 I18 N34 H51 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16291&r=his |
| By: | Dario Guarascio; Philipp Heimberger (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Francesco Zezza |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses how Italy’s decades-long decline turned the country into the euro area’s Achilles heel, the most vulnerable spot in the common currency. We use a structuralist framework to synthesise different (competing) supply-side and demand-side explanations, accounting for long-term processes and sectoral interdependencies. We argue that structural domestic factors that were already present in the decades after World War II (‘original sins’) – low-cost competition and labour fragmentation, many small firms linked to low innovation, and a deep territorial divide – interacted with the policy constraints brought about by globalisation and European integration to exacerbate Italy’s decline vis-à-vis its euro area peers. |
| Keywords: | Italy, decline, euro area, crisis |
| JEL: | E65 P16 F45 F62 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:470&r=his |
| By: | Stefan Bauernschuster; Matthias Blum; Erik Hornung; Christoph Koenig |
| Abstract: | How do health crises affect election results? We combine a panel of election results from 1893–1933 with spatial heterogeneity in excess mortality due to the 1918 Influenza to assess the pandemic’s effect on voting behavior across German constituencies. Applying a dynamic differences-in-differences approach, we find that areas with higher influenza mortality saw a lasting shift towards left-wing parties. We argue that pandemic intensity increased the salience of public health policy, prompting voters to reward parties signaling competence in health issues. Alternative explanations such as pandemic-induced economic hardship, punishment of incumbents for inadequate policy responses, or polarization of the electorate towards more extremist parties are not supported by our findings. |
| Keywords: | pandemics, elections, health, voting behavior, issue salience, issue ownership, Weimar Republic |
| JEL: | D72 I18 N34 H51 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10531&r=his |
| By: | Kattan, Lamis; Mark, Lili; Morin, Louis-Philippe; Tian, Wenjie |
| Abstract: | Goni (2022) relies on a novel data on peerage marriages in Britain to ex- amine the impact of matching technology on marital sorting. He relies on the London Season interruption (1861{1863) as a natural experiment that raised search costs and reduced market segregation. In his preferred specification, he exploits exogenous variation in women's probability to marry during the interruption for their age in 1861 and finds that the interruption increased the probability of marrying a commoner; reduced the probability of marrying an heir, increased the difference in spouses' family landholdings (in absolute value); decreased the difference in spouses' family landholdings (husband - wife); and increased the likelihood of never getting married (See Table 2, columns 1 to 6, respectively). First, we reproduce the paper's main findings and find no coding errors. Second, we test the robustness of the results to (1) the use of additional fixed effects and (2) sample restrictions. Finally, we examine the heterogeneous effects of this interruption by age and year. We find that original estimates are robust and are not significantly affected using these alternative specifications. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:47&r=his |
| By: | Costa-Font, Joan; Nicińska, Anna |
| Abstract: | We study how exposure to (Soviet) communism (EC), a political-economic regime based on collectivist state planning, affected the preferences for family support, which we refer to as informal family insurance. Against the backdrop that ‘communism gave rise to the abolition of the family’, we document that it actually strengthened the preference (the demand) for informal family insurance without depressing individuals' preferences for social insurance. We exploit cross-country and cohort variation in EC on more than 314, 000 individuals living in 33 Central and Eastern European countries, among which 14 had been subject to communist regimes. We estimate that EC gave rise to 9.6 percentage point (pp) increase in the preference for family care for older parent and 4.3 pp increase in the support (both financial and nonfinancial) for children. These effects are explained by the strengthening of social and family networks that resulted from the erosion of generalized, interpersonal and institutional trust, rather than by ‘indoctrination effects’ during Soviet communism times. |
| Keywords: | family insurance; social insurance; interpersonal trust; confidence in institutions; Soviet communism; Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | B14 B24 P2 P3 |
| Date: | 2023–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:118472&r=his |
| By: | Marek Jenöffy-Lochau (Büro am Carlsplatz) |
| Abstract: | The concept of 'preferences' is a cornerstone of economic theory. However, the question whether or how preferences accrue has not been discussed in economic literature so much. Kirchgässner suggested that this happens during a 'phase of socialisation' of an individual. Discussing the topic 'preferences, ' leads to several contradictions and unanswered questions. I show a path how to address the topic and present a first step towards an economic 'theory of persuasive rhetoric' that Galperti recently requested. |
| Keywords: | Preferences, Preference Formation, Information, Communication, Persuasion, Economic Methodology |
| Date: | 2023–06–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04139498&r=his |
| By: | Karsten Müller; Emil Verner |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between credit expansions, macroeconomic fluctuations, and financial crises using a novel database on the sectoral distribution of private credit for 117 countries since 1940. We document that, during credit booms, credit flows disproportionately to the non-tradable sector. Credit expansions to the non-tradable sector, in turn, systematically predict subsequent growth slowdowns and financial crises. In contrast, credit expansions to the tradable sector are associated with sustained output and productivity growth without a higher risk of a financial crisis. To understand these patterns, we show that firms in the non-tradable sector tend to be smaller, more reliant on loans secured by real estate, and more likely to default during crises. Our findings are consistent with models in which credit booms to the non-tradable sector are driven by easy financing conditions and amplified by collateral feedbacks, contributing to increased financial fragility and a boom-bust cycle. |
| JEL: | E0 F30 G01 G02 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31420&r=his |
| By: | Markus K. Brunnermeier; Sergio A. Correia; Stephan Luck; Emil Verner; Tom Zimmermann |
| Abstract: | The recent rise in price pressures around the world has reignited interest in understanding how inflation transmits to the real economy. Economists have long recognized that unexpected surges of inflation can redistribute wealth from creditors to debtors when debt contracts are written in nominal terms (see, for example, Fisher 1933). If debtors are financially constrained, this redistribution can affect real economic activity by relaxing financing constraints. This mechanism, which we call the debt-inflation channel, is well understood theoretically (for example, Gomes, Jermann, and Schmid 2016), but there is limited empirical evidence to substantiate it. In this post, we discuss new insights from one of the key events in monetary history: the Great German Inflation of 1919-23. Because this case of inflation was both surprising and extremely high, Germany’s experience helps shed light on how high inflation impacts firms’ economic activity through the erosion of their nominal debt burdens. These insights are based on a recently released research paper. |
| Keywords: | Hyperinflation; debt-inflation; macro-finance |
| JEL: | E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2023–07–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:96477&r=his |
| By: | Cropper, Maureen L. (Resources for the Future); Joiner, Emily (Resources for the Future); Krupnick, Alan (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) bases its estimate of the value of statistical life (VSL) on 17 hedonic wage studies and five contingent valuation studies conducted between 1974 and 1991. We summarize advances in the mortality risk valuation literature since these papers were published, focusing on studies that value risks to adults and were conducted in the United States. We review hedonic wage, other revealed preference, and stated preference studies, identifying papers that satisfy appropriate validity criteria. We conclude that the recent literature is sufficiently rich to permit a revision of EPA’s baseline estimate. Importantly, VSL estimates from both the averting behavior and stated preference studies we review reflect the preferences of a wider range of demographic groups than the current VSL, and newer studies better target causes of death relevant to EPA regulations. |
| Date: | 2023–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-23-30&r=his |