nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2023‒07‒31
24 papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Northumbria University

  1. The death and life of great British cities By Stephan Heblich; David Krisztián Nagy; Alex Trew; Yanos Zylberberg
  2. The Occupational Attainment of American Jewish Men in the Mid-19th Century By Barry Chiswick; RaeAnn Robinson
  3. The Urban Wage Premium in Historical Perspective By Kyle Butts; Taylor Jaworski; Carl Kitchens
  4. Adam Smith's Theory of Value: A Reappraisal of Classical Price Discovery By Sabiou Inoua; Vernon Smith
  5. Stichprobe der Integrierten Arbeitsmarktbiografien Regionalfile (SIAB-R) 1975 - 2021 (Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies Regional File (SIAB-R) 1975-2021) By Schmucker, Alexandra; Vom Berge, Philipp
  6. Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies Regional File (SIAB-R) 1975 - 2021 By Schmucker, Alexandra; Vom Berge, Philipp
  7. A Massive Scale Semantic Similarity Dataset of Historical English By Emily Silcock; Melissa Dell
  8. Sraffa and the ‘slogans not used’ By Fratini, Saverio Maria; Ravagnani, Fabio
  9. Time on the Crossing: Emigrant Voyages across the Atlantic, 1853 to 1913 By Hatton, Timothy J.
  10. "Stan the Man": On Stanley Fischer and MIT By Olivier J Blanchard
  11. Maternal mortality, race, and the abortion laws of the 1960s and 1970s By McDonald, Tia M.
  12. Uma Jornada pelo Tempo: Explorando a História do Pensamento Econômico By da Silva, Breno Nery
  13. Female Education and Social Change By Mathias Bühler; Leonhard Vollmer; Johannes Wimmer
  14. Careers and Intergenerational Income Mobility By Haeck, Catherine; Laliberté, Jean-William
  15. Vision and Analysis in Schumpeter’s Theory: A Reappraisal in Economic Philosophy By Tristan VELARDO
  16. Standing on the shoulders of giants or science? Lessons from ordoliberalism By Feld, Lars P.; Köhler, Ekkehard A.
  17. How does Regional Entrepreneurship Transfer over Time? The Role of Household Size and Economic Success By Michael Wyrwich; Michael Fritsch
  18. From bazooka to backstop: the political economy of standing swap facilities By Steininger, Lea; Richtmann, Mathis L.
  19. Does scientific research output matter for Portugal’s economic growth? By Tânia Pinto; Aurora Teixeira
  20. Économie des institutions, de l’innovation et de la croissance By Philippe Aghion
  21. Entrenchment, Wealth, Power, and the Constitution of Democratic Societies, by Paul Starr, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. 2019. 280 pages, hardcover. By Krammer, Sorin
  22. A deep learning approach to estimation of the Phillips curve in South Africa By Gideon du Rand; Hylton Hollander; Dawie van Lill
  23. Maternity Benefits and Marital Stability after Birth: Evidence from the Soviet Baltic Republics By Brainerd, Elizabeth; Malkova, Olga
  24. The Anomalies Of The Wold-Juréen (1953) Functional Form In Overview By Sproule, Robert

  1. By: Stephan Heblich; David Krisztián Nagy; Alex Trew; Yanos Zylberberg
    Abstract: This paper studies how cities' industrial structure shapes their life and death. Our analysis exploits the large heterogeneity in the early composition of English and Welsh cities. We extract built-up clusters from early historical maps, identify settlements at the onset of the nineteenth century, and isolate exogenous variation in the nature of their rise during the transformation of the economy by the end of the nineteenth century. We then estimate the causal impact of cities' population and industrial specialization on their later dynamics. We find that cities specializing in a small number of industries decline in the long run. We develop a dynamic spatial model of cities to isolate the forces which govern their life and death. Intratemporally, the model captures the role of amenities, land, local productivity and trade in explaining the distribution of economic activity across industries and cities. Intertemporally, the model can disentangle the role of aggregate industry dynamics from city-specific externalities. We find that the long-run dynamics of English and Welsh cities is explained to a large extent by such dynamic externalities a la Jacobs.
    Keywords: Specialization; cities over time; quantitative economic geography.
    JEL: F63 N93 O14 R13
    Date: 2023–07
  2. By: Barry Chiswick (George Washington University); RaeAnn Robinson (George Washington University)
    Abstract: This paper is concerned with analyzing the occupational status of American Jewish men compared to other free men in the mid-19th century to help fill a gap in the literature. It does this by using the 1/100 microdata sample from the 1850 Census of Population, the first census to ask occupation. Two independent lists of surnames are used to identify men with a higher probability of being Jewish. The men identified as Jews had a higher probability of being professionals, managers, and craft workers, and were less likely to be in farm occupations or in operative jobs. Using the Duncan Socioeconomic Index (SEI), the Jewish men have a higher SEI overall. In the multiple regression analysis, it is found that among Jewish and other free men occupational status increases with age (up to about age 44 for all men), literacy, being married, being native born, living in the South, and living in an urban area. Controlling for a set of these variables, Jews have a significantly higher SEI, which is the equivalent of about half the size of the effect of being literate. This higher occupational status is consistent with patterns found elsewhere for American Jews throughout the 20th century.
    Keywords: Jews, Occupational Status, Duncan Socioeconomic Index, 1850 Census of Population, Antebellum America, Labor Market Analysis, Human Capital
    JEL: N31 J62 J15
    Date: 2023–03
  3. By: Kyle Butts; Taylor Jaworski; Carl Kitchens
    Abstract: We estimate the urban wage premium in the United States from 1940 to 2010. Drawing on recent advances in the literature on selection on unobservables, we show how to control for heterogeneity in the characteristics of individuals that choose to live in cities to address endogenous sorting. Estimates from naive comparisons of individuals living in urban versus non-urban areas substantially overstate the urban wage premium. We find that the premium is highest in the middle of the twentieth century (about 12 percent in 1940 and 1950) relative to the early in twenty-first century (declining to a few percent by 2010). Overall, the urban wage premium is decreasing and sorting explains a larger fraction of the difference in urban versus non-urban earnings across our sample period.
    JEL: N92 R0
    Date: 2023–06
  4. By: Sabiou Inoua; Vernon Smith
    Abstract: The relevance of Adam Smith for understanding human morality and sociality is recognized in the growing interest in his work on moral sentiments among scholars of various academic backgrounds. But, paradoxically, Adam Smith's theory of economic value enjoys a less prominent stature today among economists, who, while they view him as the 'father of modern economics', considered him more as having had the right intuitions about a market economy than as having developed the right concepts and the technical tools for studying it. Yet the neoclassical tradition, which replaced the classical school around 1870, failed to provide a satisfactory theory of market price formation. Adam Smith's sketch of market price formation (Ch. VII, Book I, Wealth of Nations), and more generally the classical view of competition as a collective higgling and bargaining process, as this paper argues, offers a helpful foundation on which to build a modern theory of market price formation, despite any shortcomings of the original classical formulation (notably its insistence on long-run, natural value). Also, with hindsight, the experimental market findings established the remarkable stability, efficiency, and robustness of the old view of competition, suggesting a rehabilitation of classical price discovery. This paper reappraises classical price theory as Adam Smith articulated it; we explicate key propositions from his price theory and derive them from a simple model, which is an elementary sketch of the authors' more general theory of competitive market price formation.
    Date: 2023–07
  5. By: Schmucker, Alexandra (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Vom Berge, Philipp (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)
    Abstract: "This data report describes the“Regional File” of the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB-R) 1975 - 2021. This dataset represents the factual anonymous version of the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB) and may be transmitted to scientific research institutions after concluding a use agreement with the IAB." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Stichprobe der Integrierten Arbeitsmarktbiografien (SIAB) ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Datenaufbereitung ; Datenqualität ; Datenanonymisierung ; Datensatzbeschreibung ; 1975-2021
    Date: 2023–06–30
  6. By: Schmucker, Alexandra (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Vom Berge, Philipp (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)
    Abstract: "This data report describes the“Regional File” of the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB-R) 1975 - 2021. This dataset represents the factual anonymous version of the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB) and may be transmitted to scientific research institutions after concluding a use agreement with the IAB." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Stichprobe der Integrierten Arbeitsmarktbiografien (SIAB) ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Datenaufbereitung ; Datenqualität ; Datenanonymisierung ; Datensatzbeschreibung ; 1975-2021
    Date: 2023–06–30
  7. By: Emily Silcock; Melissa Dell
    Abstract: A diversity of tasks use language models trained on semantic similarity data. While there are a variety of datasets that capture semantic similarity, they are either constructed from modern web data or are relatively small datasets created in the past decade by human annotators. This study utilizes a novel source, newly digitized articles from off-copyright, local U.S. newspapers, to assemble a massive-scale semantic similarity dataset spanning 70 years from 1920 to 1989 and containing nearly 400M positive semantic similarity pairs. Historically, around half of articles in U.S. local newspapers came from newswires like the Associated Press. While local papers reproduced articles from the newswire, they wrote their own headlines, which form abstractive summaries of the associated articles. We associate articles and their headlines by exploiting document layouts and language understanding. We then use deep neural methods to detect which articles are from the same underlying source, in the presence of substantial noise and abridgement. The headlines of reproduced articles form positive semantic similarity pairs. The resulting publicly available HEADLINES dataset is significantly larger than most existing semantic similarity datasets and covers a much longer span of time. It will facilitate the application of contrastively trained semantic similarity models to a variety of tasks, including the study of semantic change across space and time.
    Date: 2023–06
  8. By: Fratini, Saverio Maria; Ravagnani, Fabio
    Abstract: The two ‘slogans’ written by Sraffa in an early draft of the preface to his book (Sraffa Papers D3/12/43:1(3)) can be seen as the synthesis of a wider reasoning that he outlines in some manuscripts composed in 1955 and 1956. We rationalise this reasoning by three statements: A. The rate of profits manifests itself in the Standard system as the ratio of two well-defined quantities of Standard commodity; B. The rate of profits can be identified in the Standard system before knowing the prices of commodities; and C. The rate of profits emerging from the Standard system cannot be altered by ‘manipulations of prices’ and, for this reason, can be regarded as a non-price phenomenon. By discussing these statements in depth, we aim at shedding new light on the precise meaning of Sraffa’s slogans.
    Keywords: Sraffa; rate of profits; Standard commodity
    JEL: B24 B51 D33 D46
    Date: 2023
  9. By: Hatton, Timothy J. (University of Essex)
    Abstract: From 1860 to 1913 the six colonies that became states of Australia strove to attract migrants from the UK with a variety of assisted passages. The colonies/states shared a common culture and sought migrants from a common source, the UK, but set policy independently of each other. This experience provides a unique opportunity to examine the formation of assisted immigration policies. Using a panel of colonies/states over the years 1862 to 1913 I investigate the association between measures of policy activism and a range of economic and political variables. Assisted migration policies were positively linked with government budget surpluses and local economic prosperity. They were also associated with political participation including the widening of the franchise and remuneration of members of parliament. While the reduction in travel time to Australia reduced the need for assisted migration, slumps in the UK increased the take-up of assisted passages.
    Keywords: transatlantic migration, steam ships, voyage times
    JEL: F22 O33 N73
    Date: 2023–06
  10. By: Olivier J Blanchard (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
    Abstract: Stanley Fischer has had two careers: one as an academic, first at the University of Chicago and then at MIT, and the other as a policymaker--as chief economist of the World Bank, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, governor of the Bank of Israel, and, finally, vice chair of the Federal Reserve Board. His influence on economic policy, through his writings, his various positions, and especially his extensive cohort of MIT students and advisees, is unparalleled in our profession, writes Olivier Blanchard.
    Date: 2023–06
  11. By: McDonald, Tia M.
    Keywords: Health Economics and Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Labor and Human Capital
    Date: 2023
  12. By: da Silva, Breno Nery
    Abstract: Este artigo oferece um panorama abrangente da história do pensamento econômico, explorando as diferentes escolas de pensamento desde os tempos antigos até as teorias contemporâneas. São analisadas as contribuições de figuras proeminentes, como Adam Smith, Karl Marx, John Maynard Keynes e Friedrich Hayek, examinando suas teorias e ideias fundamentais. Além disso, são explorados os debates, controvérsias e influências políticas, sociais e tecnológicas que moldaram o pensamento econômico ao longo do tempo. O artigo discute as abordagens teóricas para explicar fenômenos econômicos, incluindo o liberalismo clássico, o marxismo, a economia neoclássica, a economia comportamental e outras correntes contemporâneas. Também são examinadas as maneiras pelas quais as ideias econômicas influenciaram as políticas públicas e os desdobramentos econômicos ao longo da história. Em suma, este artigo oferece uma visão panorâmica da história do pensamento econômico, destacando os principais pensadores, teorias e debates que moldaram a disciplina ao longo dos séculos. Ao demonstrar como essas ideias continuam a influenciar a economia moderna, busca-se fornecer uma compreensão abrangente e atualizada do pensamento econômico.
    Date: 2023–06–22
  13. By: Mathias Bühler (LMU Munich); Leonhard Vollmer (LMU Munich); Johannes Wimmer (LMU Munich)
    Abstract: Does access to education facilitate the emergence of a human capital elite from which social activists, and thus, social change can emerge? Assembling a city-level panel of the political, intellectual, and economic elite throughout German history, we find that the opening of schools providing secondary education for women increased their representation among the human capital elite. These elites challenged the status quo and developed critical ideas that resonated in cities with higher human capital, connecting women to form a social movement. We find no evidence of other city-specific indicators of economic and gender-specific cultural change affecting our results. Differential returns to education are also unrelated to the increasing representation of women among the human capital elite, as the opening of gender-specific schools has no impact on the opposite gender.
    Keywords: female education; human capital; women's rights;
    Date: 2023–07–04
  14. By: Haeck, Catherine (University of Montreal); Laliberté, Jean-William (University of Calgary)
    Abstract: This paper uses Census microdata linked with tax records to quantify the contribution of career choices - occupations and fields of study - to intergenerational income mobility. We document substantial segregation into occupations by parental income. Yet, the occupations children pursue explain only a third of the intergenerational persistence of income. We further describe patterns of intergenerational occupational following and show they vary substantially across occupations, with low-paying occupations showing more persistence across generations on average. However, clustering into occupations based on parental income is mostly independent of parental occupations. Our results demonstrate that occupational persistence only weakly contributes to income immobility.
    Keywords: intergenerational mobility, occupational choice, income inequality
    JEL: J62 J24
    Date: 2023–06
  15. By: Tristan VELARDO (CLERSÉ - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: In order to deal with the relationship between science and ideology, Schumpeter distinguishes the Vision, an "effort of pre-analytical knowledge" which is, by definition, historically and socially located and which constitutes a necessary step of the scientific procedure on which is based what Schumpeter calls the "Analysis". The Analysis is strictly scientific work and responds, as such, to a number of rules whose objective is to provide satis- factory solutions to the problems encountered. The rules of analytical pro- cedure would be a solution to prevent the analysis from ideological contamination. Schumpeter thus develops a positive conception of science which is expressed by the elimination of ideology and philosophy by mov- ing them back to a pre-analytical moment. This paper intends to use economic philosophy, first as a tool to make a critical appraisal of the distinction between Vision and Analysis in Schumpeter's work. Indeed, rather than reconstructing a Vision, which would be prior and separate from the Analysis, economic philosophy proposes to grasp the fundamental philosophical questions of economic theories. In doing so, this paper proposes, secondly, to apply the methods of economic philosophy to Schumpeter's work in order to introduce a new entry to his work: the philosophical question running thought his work, i.e. the emergence of novelty.
    Abstract: Afin de traiter des rapports entre science et idéologie, Schumpeter distingue la Vision, cet « effort de connaissance pré-analytique » qui, par définition, est historiquement et socialement situé et qui constitue une étape nécessaire de la procédure scientifique sur laquelle se bâtit ce qu'il appelle « Analyse ». L'analyse est le travail proprement scientifique et répond, à ce titre à un certain nombre de règles dont l'objectif est de fournir des solutions satisfaisantes aux problèmes posés. Les règles de procédure analytique seraient une solution pour prémunir l'analyse contre une contamination idéologique. Schumpeter développe une conception positive de la science qui s'exprime par l'élimination de l'idéologie et de la philosophie en les reculant dans un moment pré-analytique. Cet article propose une critique de la conception de la science économique de Schumpeter. Dans un premier temps, nous utiliserons la philosophie économique comme outil pour une critique de la séparation entre Vision et Analyse chez Schumpeter. Dans un second temps, nous appliquons les méthodes de la philosophie économique à l'œuvre de Schumpeter afin d'entrevoir une nouvelle porte d'entrée dans son œuvre, celle de la question philosophique originaire qui lui sert de leitmotiv : l'émergence de la nouveauté.
    Keywords: Schumpeter (Joseph A.), Vision, Analysis, Economic philosophy, Novelty, Schumpeter, Analyse, Philosophie économique, Nouveauté
    Date: 2021–12–01
  16. By: Feld, Lars P.; Köhler, Ekkehard A.
    Abstract: James Buchanan would have celebrated his 100th birthday in 2019. This serves as an inspiration to look at the future of public choice and the question of how much normativity public choice can bear. In our analysis we draw parallels between public choice and German ordoliberalism (and its source in the Freiburg School of Economics). We argue that the reception of ordoliberalism exemplifies easy-to-grasp pitfalls that should be taken seriously. We anchor the future agenda of public choice in a solid individualist perspective. Similar to ordoliberalism, public choice will have to clarify its relation to normative economics. The effects of rules and institutions and their working properties should be thoroughly analyzed empirically. The role of ideas is important for the normative foundation of both public choice/ constitutional economics and ordoliberalism, and is rooted in normative individualism. It provides a benchmark by which rules and institutions can be judged as favorable.
    Keywords: Public Choice, Methodology, James Buchanan, Normativity, Individualism
    JEL: B13 B26 B31 D78 E61 E63
    Date: 2023
  17. By: Michael Wyrwich (University of Groningen, and Friedrich Schiller University Jena); Michael Fritsch (Friedrich Schiller University Jena)
    Abstract: Mounting empirical evidence shows that regional differences of entrepreneurship are persistent over long periods of time that may reflect the prevalence of an entrepreneurial culture. We explore three important mechanisms behind the transmission of such an entrepreneurial culture. First, we analyze the role model effects at the household level. We hypothesize that the larger the households of self-employed, the greater the opportunities for role model effects such as an intergenerational transfer of entrepreneurial values and attitudes, and hence the higher the regional start-up rate in later periods. Second, we investigate how the economic success of regional entrepreneurs fuels the role model effects. Third, we analyze if and to what extent the economic success in of regional entrepreneurship stimulates a collective memory of historical entrepreneurship that spurs self-employment in later periods. The analysis of entrepreneurship in German regions over a period of more than 90 years provides support for the significance of all three transfer channels.
    Keywords: Entrepreneurship, intertemporal transfer, regional trajectories
    JEL: L26 R11 O15 J1
    Date: 2023–07–03
  18. By: Steininger, Lea; Richtmann, Mathis L.
    Abstract: The permanent international lender of last resort consists of a swap line network between six major central banks (C6), centring around the US Federal Reserve. Arguably, this network is a solution to a long-debated problem as it provides public emergency liquidity provision to the world’s largest financial market, the Eurodollar market. Drawing on exclusive interviews with monetary technocrats as well as a textual analysis of Federal Open Market Committee meeting transcripts over the course of 14 years, we reconstruct how this facility came into being. Building on Kalyanpur and Newman (2017) and Braun (2015), we develop an interpretive framework of bricolage to contextualise its formation: in times of crisis, central bankers rely on retrospection, experimentation and creative re-deployment to develop their tools. In non-crisis times, however, the tools that prevail are those that offer what we call ‘bureaucratic familiarity’: the C6 swap line network became a permanent feature of international finance because technocrats had got used to it.
    Date: 2023–07–08
  19. By: Tânia Pinto; Aurora Teixeira (CEF.UP, Faculty of Economics, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal; CEF.UP, Faculty of Economics, University of Porto; INESC Tec)
    Abstract: The literature on the impact of research output on economic growth has been rapidly expanding. However, the single growth processes of technological laggard countries and the mediating roles of human capital and structural change have been overlooked. Resorting to cointegration analyses and Granger causality tests for Portugal over the last 40 years (1980-2019) four main results are worth highlighting: (1) in the long-run, global and hard sciences (life sciences, physical sciences, engineering and technology, social sciences) research outputs are positively and significantly associated to economic growth; (2) in the short-run, global, hard sciences and soft sciences (base clinical, pre-clinical and health, arts and humanities) foster economic growth; (3) important (long and short-run) mismatches between human capital and scientific production emerged, with the years of schooling mitigating the positive impact of research output on economic growth; (4) structural change processes favouring industry amplify the positive (long-run) association and (short-run) impact of research output on economic growth. Such results robustly suggest that even in technological laggard contexts, scientific production is critical for economic growth, especially when aligned with changes in sectoral production composition favouring industry.
    Keywords: Research output; human capital; structural change; economic growth; cointegration analysis; Portugal
    JEL: O30 O38 O47
    Date: 2023–07
  20. By: Philippe Aghion (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Collège de France - Chaire Economie des institutions, de l'innovation et de la croissance - CdF (institution) - Collège de France)
    Abstract: Cours – Histoire de la croissance (suite) Cours 1 – Pourquoi a-t-on besoin de l'État ? L'approche pigouvienne (8 octobre 2019) Cours 2 – Échecs et défaillances des gouvernements (22 octobre 2019) Cours 3 – Les contre-pouvoirs (1/2, 29 octobre 2019) Cours 4 – Les contre-pouvoirs (2/2, 5 novembre 2019) Cours 5 – Histoire de la formation de l'État et piliers de la prospérité (12 novembre 2019) Cours 6 – Rôle de la démocratie et transition démocratique (19 novembre 2019) Publications Aghion P., B...
    Date: 2023–02–13
  21. By: Krammer, Sorin
    Abstract: Why should we, as Management scholars and educators, care about a book on political diagnosis? The answer is twofold. First, the calibre of the author (Paul Starr), an awardee of both Bancroft and Pulitzer Prizes, a former policy advisor to the Clinton administration, and the author of The Transformation of American Medicine (1982), a book with a profound impact on American policy circles. Second, the core concept (entrenchment) of the book, and its potential to advance the process of institutional development, and the ways in which we can reform and change our institutions to better meet the current and pressing needs of the many, rather than preserve the unequal privileges of a few. In light of the geopolitical, social, and environmental pressures we see currently rising across the world (George, Howard-Grenville, Joshi & Tihanyi, 2016; Howard-Grenville, Buckle, Hoskins & George, 2014) there is no better time to examine whether and how we can address some of these grand challenges by reforming and improving our institutions.
    Keywords: entrenchment; institutions; crises; populism
    JEL: H00
    Date: 2023–01–23
  22. By: Gideon du Rand; Hylton Hollander; Dawie van Lill
    Abstract: In this study, we provide a comprehensive estimation of the contemporary Phillips curve relationship in the South African economy using a novel deep learning technique. Our approach incorporates multiple measures of economic slack/tightness and inflation expectations, contributing to the debate on the relevance of the Phillips curve in South Africa, where previous findings have been inconclusive. Our analysis reveals that long-run inflation expectations are the primary driver of inflation, with these expectations anchored around 5% historically but declining since the financial crisis.
    Keywords: Inflation, Output gap, Monetary policy
    Date: 2023
  23. By: Brainerd, Elizabeth (Brandeis University); Malkova, Olga (University of Kentucky)
    Abstract: Can a policy intervention in the stressful first year after a birth affect marital stability? We examine this question using a large expansion in maternity benefits in 1982 in the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The program provided partially paid leave until the child's first birthday and included a small cash payment at birth. We use individual-level panel data and compare the Baltics with similar East European countries using a difference-indifferences framework. Maternity benefits decrease divorce within the first year after birth. This decrease persists for at least a decade, indicating that couples avoided divorce altogether rather than simply delaying it. While mothers extended their leave by several months, they returned to full-time work afterwards, consistent with egalitarian gender norms in the labor market.
    Keywords: marriage, divorce, marital stability, maternity benefits, Baltics, Eastern Europe
    JEL: J12 J16 J18 P2 P3
    Date: 2023–06
  24. By: Sproule, Robert
    Abstract: Both the Wold-Juréen (1953) utility function and the Wold-Juréen (1953) production function have played a central role in the modelling and the analysis of the Giffen behavior. Using an amalgam of these two functions, this paper defines the Wold-Juréen (1953) functional form, and then compares its properties to the properties of the arbitrary functional form, in an effort to provide a global perspective on the unique nature of the Wold-Juréen (1953) functional form. This paper then reports: (a) that the domain of the Wold-Juréen (1953) functional form (or the first functional form) is a subset of the domain of the arbitrary functional form (or the second functional form), (b) that the signs of the second derivatives of the Wold-Juréen (1953) functional form (or the first functional form) are the opposite of the signs of the second derivatives of the arbitrary functional form (or the second functional form), and (c) that (within the context of the unconstrained-maximization problem) the Wold-Juréen (1953) functional form (or the first functional form) is not concave, whereas the arbitrary functional form (or the second functional form) is concave.
    Keywords: Wold-Juréen (1953) functional form, Arbitrary functional form, Giffen behavior, Consumer theory, Producer theory
    JEL: A22 A23 D11 D21
    Date: 2023–07–05

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