nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2023‒07‒24
53 papers chosen by

  1. Adam Smith's Case Against the British Empire By William Coleman
  2. A Journey into Harold Hotelling's Economics By Marion Gaspard; Antoine Missemer; Thomas Michael Mueller
  3. "Lemons for machines" and "cabbages into the sea": international economic and commercial relations between Italy, Germany, and Great Britain at the dawn of the Second World War By Alice Martini
  4. One and a Half Millennium of Economic Change in Sweden By Krantz, Olle
  5. Hugo Grotius on Exchange and Price By André Lapidus
  6. Isolating a Culture of Son Preference Among Armenian, Georgian, and Azeri Parents in Soviet-Era Russia By Matthias Schief; Sonja Vogt; Elena Churilova; Charles Efferson
  7. Remembering And Reminding The Significance, Meaning, And Provisions Of The Lausanne Peace Treaty In Its Centenary By Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul
  8. What Went So Wrong in Economics By Jennings, Frederic
  9. It's a bird, it's a plane, it's Superman! Using mass media to fight intolerance By Alex Armand; Paul Atwell; Joseph F. Gomes; Yannik Schenk
  10. The intergenerational transmission of higher education: Evidence from the 1973 coup in Chile By Maria Angelica Bautista; Felipe Gonzalez; Luis R. Martinez; Pablo Munoz; Mounu Prem
  11. Persecution and Escape By Sascha Becker; Volker Lindenthal; Sharun Mukand; Fabian Waldinger
  12. Toward a “Prodigious Revival of French Economics”? Allais, Debreu, and the Dead Loss Controversy (1943–51) By Raphaël Fèvre; Thomas Michael Mueller
  13. Mafia Origins, Land Distribution, and Crop Diversification By Michele Battisti; Giovanni Bernardo; Andros Kourtellos; Andrea Mario Lavezzi
  14. A critique of Friedrich Hayek’s argumentation in favor of a productivity theory of interest By Renaud Fillieule
  15. Political Elites, Urban Institutions And Long-Run Persistence : The King Owned Towns By Elisa Borghi; Donato Masciandaro
  16. Are Anti-Federalism Republicanism the Way Forward for a United States of Europe? Lessons from American History By Dandan Hong; Lorenzo Pecchi; Gustavo Piga
  17. Museo de Arte Moderno de Cartagena (MAMC), una colección con 63 años de historia By Jhorland Ayala-García; Jaime Bonet-Morón; María Beatriz García-Dereix
  18. Resting on Their Laureates? Research Productivity Among Winners of the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine By Jay Bhattacharya; Paul Bollyky; Jeremy D. Goldhaber-Fiebert; Geir H. Holom; Mikko Packalen; David M. Studdert
  19. The monetary and macroprudential policy framework in Colombia in the last 30 years: the lessons learnt and the challenges for the future By Gomez-Pineda, Javier Guillermo; Murcia, Andrés; Cabrera-Rodríguez, Wilmar Alexander; Vargas-Herrera, Hernando; Villar-Gómez, Leonardo
  20. The Increasing Impact of Spain on the Equity Markets of Brazil, Chile and Mexico By Andres Rivas; Rahul Verma; Antonio Rodriguez; Pedro H. Albuquerque
  21. El proceso de reformas de Vietnam a partir de 1986 By Calveira, Martín
  22. Zur Geschichte des "arbeitnehmernahen" und "keynesianisch" geltenden Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) seit den 50er Jahren By Gert G. Wagner
  23. If You Do Not Change Your Behavior : Preventive Repression in Lithuania under Soviet Rule By Nazrullaeva, Eugenia; Harrison, Mark
  24. The Historical Impact of Coal on Cities By Karen Clay; Joshua A. Lewis; Edson R. Severnini
  25. Distressed Firms and the Large Effects of Monetary Policy Tightenings By Ander Pérez-Orive; Yannick Timmer
  26. Urban land markets and city development: Sub-Saharan Africa By Henderson, J. Vernon; Liu, Vivian
  28. The Quantitative Effect of the Thatcherism Taxation Programme: Computational Experiments based on a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model By Robbie Noel Wilson; Aleksandar Vasilev
  29. Structural transformation and sources of growth in Turkey By Ahmet Ihsan Kaya; Cumhur Çiçekçi
  30. Identifying money and inflation expectation shocks on real oil prices By Benk, Szilárd; Gillman, Max
  31. Fascist ideology and migrant labor exploitation By Mario Carillo; Gemma Dipoppa; Shanker Satyanath
  32. Introduction to symposium on the impact of employee influence By Estrin, Saul
  33. Headhunting and Warfare: Evidence from Austronesia By Boris Gershman; Tinatin Mumladze
  34. The Political Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Weimar Germany By Stefan Bauernschuster; Matthias Blum; Erik Hornung; Christoph Koenig
  35. China's 40 Years Demographic Dividend and Labor Supply: The Quantity Myth By Meng, Xin
  36. When you arrive in town... Overtourism: from Barcelona to Amsterdam, cities are arming themselves to deal with the scourge of mass tourism. Interview with Patrice Ballester By Patrice Ballester
  37. An illiberal economic order: commitment mechanisms become tools of authoritarian coercion By Kalyanpur, Nikhil
  38. War and Science in Ukraine By Ina Ganguli; Fabian Waldinger
  39. Janus's Money Demand and Time Inconsistency: A New Impossibility Theorem? By João Ricardo Faria; Peter McAdam
  40. Finance and Climate Resilience: Evidence from the long 1950s US Drought By Raghuram Rajan; Rodney Ramcharan
  41. Les politiques d’accès aux ressources numériques de l’administration au prisme de la microsimulation By Franck Bessis; Paul Cotton
  42. Colonial origins and quality of education evidence from Cameroon By Yasmine Bekkouche; Yannick Dupraz
  43. Development strategies in a context of world system disorder By Lundvall, Bengt-Åke
  44. Smoothness Monitoring of Selected Concrete Surfaces By Guada, Irwin; Harvey, John T
  45. Accounting for the Duality of the Italian Economy By Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Dario Laudati; Lee Ohanian; Vincenzo Quadrini
  46. Labour law and the informal economy in Vietnam subtitle By Barcucci, Valentina,; Bonnet, Florence,; Cooney, Sean,
  47. La tarea de salvar el desarrollo capitalista: una primera revisión del programa de "misiones" desde América Latina By Gudynas, Eduardo
  48. Unconditional Convergence in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector (1988-2018) By Rivadeneira Alex
  49. Macro’s Missing Link: The Unbridged Gap between Monetarism and the Wicksell Connection By David Laidler
  50. The Illusive Slump of Disruptive Patents By Macher, Jeffrey; Rutzer, Christian; Weder, Rolf
  51. Empirical analysis of a debt-augmented Goodwin model for the United States By Hugo Bailly; Frédéric Mortier; Gaël Giraud
  52. Tax Withholding and the Size of Government By Sutirtha Bagchi; Libor Dušek
  53. The Illusive Slump of Disruptive Patents By Jeffrey T. Macher; Christian Rutzer; Rolf Weder

  1. By: William Coleman
    Abstract: The paper articulates Adam Smith's case that the British Empire is inimical to Great Britain's interest. It is argued, contrary to Smith, that under the structure of global trade that prevailed prior to the Industrial Revolution, the mercantilist restrictions on trade and capital movement that characterised the British Empire increased Britain's national income. But it is also argued, in agreement with Smith, that the military costs of enforcing these restrictions outweighed any benefit. Smith's 'cost of enforcement case' against the Empire rightly resonated among liberal critiques of Empire in the century after Smith. His proposals for political union to succeed the Empire were distorted by Imperial Federationists in the early 20th c.
    Keywords: Adam Smith; British Empire; Mercantilism; Imperial Federation
    Date: 2023–07
  2. By: Marion Gaspard (TRIANGLE - Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2); Antoine Missemer (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Thomas Michael Mueller (UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis)
    Abstract: Harold Hotelling (1895-1973) was an important contributor to twentieth-century American economics, as evidenced by the many seminal results he left behind: the 'Hotelling law, ' the 'Hotelling rule, ' the 'Hotelling lemma' and so on. The overall thrust of his research and his way of conceiving mathematical economics, however, have so far received little attention. Based on a detailed examination of Hotelling's work and several collections of unpublished archival material, this article provides a thorough analysis of Hotelling's contribution to economics, including his academic career, his view of the role of mathematics in science, and his attachment to policymaking. The results are as follows. A self-taught economist in the 1920s, Hotelling built a research program that, despite apparently being highly technical, was primarily conceived as applied science to solve concrete social and economic issues. Mathematics was, for him, a toolbox to clarify the set of hypotheses behind any reasoning and to compare typical situations abstracted from observed facts. Hotelling's economics was oriented by a Georgist agenda, which explains some of his favorite topics and helps to place his theoretical results in historical context. In the end, although his research was not exempt from criticism, Hotelling appears as an outstanding figure in the history of twentieth-century economics. When we recall that he trained the greatest, from Kenneth J. Arrow to William Vickrey, we have an even better understanding of the importance of his legacy in contemporary economic analysis.
    Keywords: spatial competition, welfare, natural resources, mathematical economics, history of economic thought
    Date: 2023
  3. By: Alice Martini
    Abstract: The work offers a reassessment of some aspects of the economic and commercial relations between Italy, Germany, and Great Britain from the 1930s to 1940, using files from several archives of those states. Its purpose is to offer a reinterpretation that leads to a comprehensive understanding of the political and diplomatic dynamics that led to the creation of the Axis (1936), to that of the Pact of steel (1939), to the British decision not to "buy" Italian neutrality (1939-40) and to the entry of Italy into the Second World War (1940). The paper focuses also on the interactions between economic and commercial policies with international and foreign politics, allowing to shed new light on whether and to what extent the latter were influenced by the first ones and/or vice versa. The relation between economic and political elements was in fact tackled in two very different ways by Germany and Italy, on the one hand, and Great Britain, on the other. While London never 'downgraded' the economic aspects in the relations it built with Italy, the fascist regimes, even in the relations between themselves, could, in a specific moment, give full priority to politics, complying with their boasted-about beliefs.
    Keywords: Anglo-Italian-German relations, Economic war, Political-commercial relations, Maritime blockade
    JEL: N40 N44
    Date: 2023–06–01
  4. By: Krantz, Olle (Department of Economic History, Lund University)
    Abstract: Construction of historical national accounts has a long history in Sweden. It started in the interwar period and later a number of improvements and extensions backward and forward in time have been made. Thus, now there are series from 1300 onwards. Of course, due to limitations of the source material, the estimates are more and more uncertain the further back in time they refer to. In this paper GDP per capita for the entire period is analysed. Growth episodes and stagnation periods are identified and comparisons of income levels with other countries are made. It is found that Sweden was not distinctly backward at any time during the whole period. Economic changes before 1300 are also discussed on the basis of previous historical research. Hence, it is to a certain extent conjectures. There were long-term ups and downs in the economy also in this early period. Furthermore, it is questioned whether the old opinion of the area later called Sweden as very poor compared to the rest of northern Europe can be upheld. Scandinavia was for instance expansive internationally with trading and raiding in the Viking period. Could this have characterised a very poor region?
    Keywords: historical national accounts; Sweden; GDP
    JEL: N13 O44
    Date: 2023–06–26
  5. By: André Lapidus (PHARE - Philosophie, Histoire et Analyse des Représentations Économiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)
    Abstract: This paper explores the way Grotius, in the chapter on contracts of the book from De Jure Belli ac Pacis (1625) where the causes of the birth of war are discussed, elaborated an original understanding of exchange and price which occupies an interesting position between the scholastic analysis where price was compared to a norm of just price and the later articulation, in classical economic thought, betweentypicallynatural prices and market prices. With Grotius, the issue was no longer the morality or sinfulness of the transaction, and not yet its exclusive economic concern, but its lawfulness. Drawing on Roman law, his starting point was a critical construction of a typology of acts from which he derived a normative analysis of exchange, which combined three types of equality, relating to information, to the absence of coercion and, finally, to the thing exchanged itself. The realisation of this equality in exchange first makes it possible to identify the legally acceptable price associated with it, a common price understood in an equivalent way by a socially recognised need that measures it or by the labour and expenses of the merchants. This legal acceptance then extends to transaction prices that may deviate from the common price, either because of variations in the tastes of the parties and in the scarcity of the good, or because, in the absence of a common judge, under the law of nations, of the agreement of the seller and buyer through a bargaining process made it acceptable.
    Keywords: Grotius, Price, Exchange, Contract
    Date: 2023–06–01
  6. By: Matthias Schief; Sonja Vogt; Elena Churilova; Charles Efferson
    Abstract: This paper analyzes historical census data from the final Soviet census in 1989. We find that, even in the absence of sex-selective abortions, the fertility decisions of Armenian, Georgian, and Azeri parents living in Russia in the late 1970s and the 1980s were significantly more son-biased than those of other ethnic groups in Russia. This finding suggests that the observed increase in the sex ratio at birth in the Caucasus since the end of the Soviet Union at least partially reflects a deep-rooted cultural preference for sons. Moreover, this result supports one of the key hypotheses of gene-culture coevolution, namely the claim that cultural evolutionary processes can shape selection on the basic components of genetic fitness.
    Keywords: son preference, sex ratio, sex-selective abortions, historical census data, Caucasus, gene-culture coevolution
    JEL: J13 J16 Z10
    Date: 2023
  7. By: Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul (Center For Eurasian Studies (AVİM))
    Abstract: Celebrating the centennial of the Lausanne Peace Treaty, signed on July 24, 1923, this article highlights its significance in laying the groundwork for the Republic of Turkey. The Treaty, a turning point in Turkish history, showcased the power of the Nationalist Movement led by Mustafa Kemal to establish an independent and sovereign Turkish state from a fragmented empire. The concepts of sovereignty and independence, foundational principles of the Republic, emerged from this struggle, emphasizing their importance in the Turkish War of Independence. In contrast to other treaties ending World War I, the Lausanne Peace Treaty remains valid and durable, regarded as the "birth certificate" of the Republic of Turkey. Despite criticism from some groups, Turkish people overwhelmingly support the Treaty. Recent questioning of the Treaty's aspects by academic platforms outside of Turkey serves as an opportunity to bring this historical document to the world's attention. The centennial celebrations will underscore the importance of independence and sovereignty in Turkey's history, and any attempts to amend the Treaty are likely to be met with strong opposition from Turkish public opinion.
    Date: 2023–05–10
  8. By: Jennings, Frederic
    Abstract: Abstract What went so wrong in economics started in 1939 with ‘The Hicksian Getaway, ’ where – after over ten years of debate assuming increasing returns – Hicks asserted decreasing returns as the basis for his competitive frame, dismissing any “useful analysis” of increasing returns. After winning the 1972 Nobel Prize for his 1939 work, Hicks (1977, pp. v-vii) apologized for ‘The Hicksian Getaway, ’ calling it “nonsense” and “an indefensible trick that ruined the ‘dynamics’ of Value and Capital.” After a series of failed attempts to integrate time into production theory, in 1958 Armen Alchian proposed a method to do so with nine propositions showing the relation of time to cost, which Julius Margolis (1960) extended into a horizonal theory of price. Jack Hirshleifer (1962) saw Alchian’s (1958) frame as a threat to neoclassical theory, declaring his aim as “rescuing the orthodox cost function.” ‘The Hirshleifer Rescue’ of decreasing returns was seamlessly folded into economics as a ‘proof’ that decreasing returns was “a general and universally valid law” of economics, according to Alchian (1968). The present paper debunks ‘The Hirshleifer Rescue’ to show the case for decreasing returns and competition rests on unfounded assertion, especially for all long-run analyses. The paper explores the implications of an increasing returns economy of complementarity and abundance in networks, with a case for efficient cooperation. The claims in Nicholas Kaldor’s papers are thus extended into an integral theory of planning horizons, as a formalization of Herbert Simon’s notion of bounded rationality. An increasing returns economics is a horizonal economics.
    Keywords: Keywords: increasing and decreasing returns to scale, rising and falling costs, time, knowledge, planning horizons, John Hicks, Jack Hirshleifer, Armen Alchian, Herbert Simon, Nicholas Kaldor
    JEL: B2 B21 B3 B31 B4 B41 B5 B52 D4 D40 D46 D5 D6 D62 L0 P0 Z1
    Date: 2023–06–20
  9. By: Alex Armand; Paul Atwell; Joseph F. Gomes; Yannik Schenk
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of progressive radio programming on societal change during the early period of desegregation in post-World War II U.S. We investigate the in?uence of the popular radio show The Adventures of Superman on promoting tolerance and exposing the bigotry of the Ku Klux Klan (KKK) in 1946. Using state-of-the-art radio propagation models, we map the broadcast’s exposure and analyze its effect on various socioeconomic outcomes. We ?nd that counties with higher exposure to the broadcast experienced a signi?cant decrease in support for KKK-af?liated political candidates and opponents of civil rights. Individuals potentially exposed to the Superman program during their youth exhibited more progressive attitudes towards civil rights, racial desegregation and African Americans later in life. These individuals were also less likely to participate in the Vietnam War. Additionally, we explore the long-term impact of the radio coverage by examining outcomes at the county level, such as the presence of active KKK branches, civil rights organizations, and accessibility of non-discriminatory services for African Americans listed in the “Negro Motorist Green Books.” We ?nd signi?cant and progressive effects on all analyzed outcomes. These results underscore the potential of progressive radio programming as a catalyst for social change and contribute to our understanding of how media shapes societal attitudes and beliefs.
    Keywords: Mass Media, Radio, Segregation, Ku Klux Klan, Superman, Intolerance, Civil Rights, Racism
    JEL: D7 D83 J15 L82 N32 Z18
    Date: 2023
  10. By: Maria Angelica Bautista (University of Chicago, Harris School of Public Policy); Felipe Gonzalez (Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance); Luis R. Martinez (University of Chicago, Harris School of Public Policy); Pablo Munoz (Universidad de Chile, Facultad de Ciencias Fisicas y Matematicas, Departamento de Ingenieria Industrial); Mounu Prem (Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance)
    Abstract: We estimate the transmission of higher education across generations using the arrival of the Pinochet dictatorship to Chile in 1973 as natural experiment. Pinochet promoted a large contraction in the number of seats available for new students across all universities. Using census data, we find that parents who reached college age shortly after 1973 experienced a sharp decline in college enrollment. Decades after democratization, we observe that their children are also less likely to enroll in higher education. The results imply large and persistent downstream effects of educational policies over more than half a century.
  11. By: Sascha Becker (Monash University); Volker Lindenthal (LMU Munich); Sharun Mukand (University of Warwick); Fabian Waldinger (LMU Munich)
    Abstract: We study the role of professional networks in facilitating emigration of Jewish academics dismissed from their positions by the Nazi government. We use individual-level exogenous variation in the timing of dismissals to estimate causal eects. Academics with more ties to early émigrés (emigrated 1933-1934) were more likely to emigrate. Early émigrés functioned as “bridging nodes” that facilitated emigration to their own destination. We also provide evidence of decay in social ties over time and show that professional networks transmit information that is not publicly observable. Finally, we study the relative importance of three types (family, community, professional) of social networks.
    Keywords: professional networks; high-skilled emigration; Nazi Germany; Jewish academics; universities;
    JEL: I20 I23 I28 J15 J24 N30 N34 N40 N44
    Date: 2023–06–21
  12. By: Raphaël Fèvre (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Thomas Michael Mueller (LED - Laboratoire d'Economie Dionysien - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis)
    Abstract: This article aims to trace the hitherto little-known controversy involving Maurice Allais, François Divisia, Harold Hotelling, and Gérard Debreu in the immediate postwar years. The controversy turned on "dead loss, " a measure of the maximum value of available surplus serving as a gauge of economic efficiency and social welfare. The protagonists argued about how it should be expressed mathematically, the hypothesis underpinning it, and its general significance. The paper draws heavily on unpublished materials (letters and notes) to unfold the different stages of the dead loss controversy and shows that it was driven by an intricate interlacing of technical advances in welfare economics with Allais's personal ambition to spearhead the revival of French economics. Eventually, this controversy (and the tense exchange between Allais and Debreu that came with it) proved a remarkable—although tacit—driving force behind Debreu's contributions of the early 1950s.
    Keywords: Maurice Allais, Gérard Debreu, Deadweight loss, Theoretical practice, Welfare economics
    Date: 2023
  13. By: Michele Battisti; Giovanni Bernardo; Andros Kourtellos; Andrea Mario Lavezzi
    Abstract: This paper explores the historical roots of land inequality in Sicily and its relationship with the Mafia presence. Using earthquake intensity as an instrumental variable to address endogeneity concerns, we find that greater land inequality in the past leads to a higher incidence of Mafia activity. Moreover, we show that contemporaneous socio-economic conditions did not drive the effect but reflected persistent historical inequality patterns. Our results suggest that policies to reduce land inequality and promote land reform could have effectively curbed organized crime in Eastern Sicily and other areas with a similar history of inequality.
    Keywords: organized crime. mafia, land inequality
    JEL: K42 H11 H75
    Date: 2023–06–06
  14. By: Renaud Fillieule (CLERSÉ - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: First in his paper «Utility Analysis and Interest» (1936) and then in two chapters of 'The Pure Theory of Capital' (1941), Hayek develops a model of the interest rate that combines productivity and time-preference in a graphical framework inspired by Fisher (1930). Hayek claims that his model supports a productivity explanation of interest, in which time preference plays no role at all or only a minor role. We show in this paper that the arguments he puts forward in favor of a productivity explanation do not prove his point at all, and that his neglect of the role of time preference remains therefore unjustified. The consequences for his model of fully taking time preference into account are then investigated.
    Abstract: D'abord dans son article "Utility Analysis and Interest" (1936) puis dans deux chapitres de 'The Pure Theory of Capital' (1941), Hayek développe un modèle du taux d'intérêt qui combine productivité et préférence temporelle dans un cadre graphique inspiré de Fisher (1930). Hayek affirme que son modèle va dans le sens d'une explication de l'intérêt par la productivité, dans laquelle la préférence temporelle ne joue aucun rôle ou seulement un rôle mineur. Nous montrons dans cet article que les arguments qu'il avance en faveur d'une explication par la productivité ne prouvent pas du tout son point de vue et que son rejet du rôle de la préférence temporelle reste donc injustifié. Nous étudions ensuite les conséquences pour son modèle d'une prise en compte adéquate de la préférence temporelle.
    Date: 2022–01–01
  15. By: Elisa Borghi; Donato Masciandaro
    Abstract: We explore the long run socio-economic impact of a medieval urban governance setting , the king-owned towns (KOTs). For a town the KOT status implies special fiscal, commercial and administrative prerogatives between the community and the Crown, where such as status could be renovated, modified or suspended. Researchers have tested the persistence effect of urban governance by comparing free city-states (communes) and feudal towns in Italy, Germany, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. This paper explores the KOTs as a third and novel category. The KOTs case is analysed using the southern Italy case, where the Kingdom of Naples delegated jurisdictional and fiscal powers to towns’ ruling classes – nobles and commoners - thereby creating a self-governance setting in which community representatives took collective decisions, including the systematic implementation of rights negotiations with the Crown, that shaped the evolution of their towns’ municipal statutes. This peculiar collective action can strengthen the persistence effect. Empirically, we find that a town’s past king owned experience is correlated with five centuries later outcomes, in terms of both economic performance and civil capital. Our results suggest that KOT status is more similar to commune experience than to fief experience, being a device to develop collective decision skills; at the same time, the unstable nature of the KOT status inhibited the strengthening of these capacities in the local communities.
    Keywords: urban governance, political elites, long-run persistence, economic history, culture, economic geography, Italy
    JEL: D72 H10 N44 O43 O52 K00 R10
    Date: 2023
  16. By: Dandan Hong (Communication University of China); Lorenzo Pecchi (University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Gustavo Piga (CEIS & DEF, University of Rome "Tor Vergata")
    Abstract: Today, the European Union (EU) and in particular its common currency area created in 1998, the Eurozone, is going through an economic crisis that, given its duration, can be defined as structural and enduring and is such as to put the common political project at risk. This article retraces the history of the United States of America with the purpose of studying what lessons and insights for European Union evolution can be learned from the original debate between Federalists and Anti-Federalists and from its repercussions on United States federal development to date. We also deal critically with some conflicting ideas about the organization and future of Europe and present some policy proposals to relaunch the European project based on some of the lessons learned from the history of the United States. We argue that the intuitions of the Anti-Federalists and Republicans can guide us in defining a path for the future of Europe. Given the ultimately (partially) successful but gradual experience of the United States, we suggest that it is necessary to hand back to the EU member countries, after the repeated failures of the EU Stability and Growth Path and Fiscal Compact, full control of their fiscal policy to build a ‘light’ fiscal federalism
    Keywords: Anti-Federalism, Republicanism, Solidarity, Civil War, New Deal, Great Society, fiscal federalism, European Union
    Date: 2023–07–07
  17. By: Jhorland Ayala-García; Jaime Bonet-Morón; María Beatriz García-Dereix
    Abstract: Los museos son importantes generadores de cultura que contribuyen a la oferta turística local, lo cual puede tener implicaciones significativas en las economías locales. Estos espacios e instituciones tienen a sufrir problemas financieros en los países en desarrollo debido a la poca importancia que se les asigna desde los sectores público y privado. Se olvidan los beneficios que trae para la economía local y regional la inversión en museos, pues estos pueden atraer nuevas inversiones por parte de quienes buscan lugares con amenidades para sus ejecutivos en un mundo globalizado. También pueden contribuir a crear una oferta turística que atrae viajeros con mayor poder de compra, lo que facilita la preservación en las ciudades con patrimonio cultural. Cartagena no es ajena a esta tendencia de escases de apoyo institucional a los museos y no ha logrado consolidar una oferta cultural sólida, a pesar de contar con un patrimonio histórico y cultural importante. En la ciudad, uno de los museos con mayor tradición es el Museo de Arte Moderno de Cartagena (MAMC), que posee una valiosa colección de arte que podría contribuir a generar esa oferta turística cultural requerida. El presente documento describe la colección actual del MAMC para dar a conocer al público su evolución y la importancia de dichas obras desde un punto de vista cronológico. Se presentan los antecedentes y la evolución de la colección haciendo énfasis en los principales artistas cuyas obras se exhiben en el museo y el contexto cultural cartagenero en las décadas de 1970 y 1980, años en que se consolidó la mayor colección del MAMC. **** ABSTRACT: Museums are important generators of culture that contribute to the local tourism offer, which can have significant implications for local economies. These spaces and institutions tend to suffer financial problems in developing countries due to the little importance assigned to them by the public and private sectors. The benefits that investment in museums brings to the local and regional economy are forgotten, since they can attract new investments by those who seek places with amenities for their executives in a globalized world. They can also contribute to creating a tourist offer that attracts travelers with greater purchasing power, which facilitates preservation in cities with cultural heritage. Cartagena is no stranger to this trend of scarce institutional support for museums and has not managed to consolidate a solid cultural offer, despite having an important historical and cultural heritage. In the city, one of the museums with the longest tradition is the Museo de Arte Moderno de Cartagena (MAMC), which has a valuable art collection that could contribute to generating the required cultural tourism offer. This document describes the current collection of the MAMC to inform the public about its evolution and the importance of these works from a chronological point of view. The background and evolution of the collection are presented, emphasizing the main artists whose works are exhibited in the museum and the cultural context of Cartagena in the 1970s and 1980s, years in which the largest collection of the MAMC was consolidated.
    Keywords: Cartagena, museo de arte moderno, patrimonio cultural, museum of modern art, cultural heritage
    JEL: Z10 Z11 Z32
    Date: 2023–07
  18. By: Jay Bhattacharya; Paul Bollyky; Jeremy D. Goldhaber-Fiebert; Geir H. Holom; Mikko Packalen; David M. Studdert
    Abstract: The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine is the most prestigious and coveted award in medical research. Anecdotal evidence and related research suggest that receiving it may adversely affect research productivity. We compared the post-Nobel research output of laureates (prize years: 1950-2010) with their pre-Nobel output and with the output of a matched control group consisting of winners of the Lasker Award, another highly prestigious medical research prize. Pre-Nobel, laureates’ publications were more voluminous, highly cited, and novel than those of (future) Lasker winners. Post-Nobel, laureates’ productivity decreased sharply, eventually falling below that of Lasker winners on all three measures. These declines may reflect diversionary effects of the Prize, changed incentives, or intrinsically different career arcs for medical researchers who win the Nobel Prize.
    JEL: I1 I23 O3
    Date: 2023–06
  19. By: Gomez-Pineda, Javier Guillermo; Murcia, Andrés; Cabrera-Rodríguez, Wilmar Alexander; Vargas-Herrera, Hernando; Villar-Gómez, Leonardo
    Abstract: Over the past 30 years, monetary and macroprudential policy in Colombia evolved towards the pursuit of a low and credible inflation target and a stable financial system. The protracted inflation that began in the early seventies was defeated at the turn of the century with the help of the new framework for monetary policy formulation, inflation targeting. In the field of macroprudential policy, the financial crisis of the late nineties led to important institutional developments in the formulation and coordination of macroprudential policy, as well as in the assessment of systemic risk. Along with these developments, important lessons have been learnt. One is that, to preserve macroeconomic stability, the price stability objective must be complemented with the financial stability objective, as well as with macroprudential policy. Another lesson is that the new institutional framework for monetary policy formulation helped Banco de la República overcome 25 years of inflation, then called moderate inflation. The challenges for the future include to continue preserving price and financial stability, strengthening the role of the Banco de la República in macroprudential policy, and to continue strengthening the channels of international coordination and cooperation in macroprudential policy.
    Keywords: Monetary policy; Macroprudential policy; Inflation targeting; Foreign exchange market intervention; Financial stability
    JEL: E58 E5 E52 E44 E61 G01 G18 G21 G28
    Date: 2023–07
  20. By: Andres Rivas (Primerica); Rahul Verma (University of Houston); Antonio Rodriguez (Texas A&M International University [Laredo]); Pedro H. Albuquerque (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ACCELERATION & ADAPTATION)
    Abstract: The article examines stock index price responses in Brazil, Chile and Mexico to those in the US, Spain and four European countries during three sub-periods surrounding the neoliberal reforms of the 1990s: 1988 to 1994, 1995 to 1998, and 1999 to 2004, using VAR modeling. It finds that equity markets became more interconnected as countries opened to international trade and capital flows, and that there was an increasing impact of Spain on Latin American equity markets. Stronger economic linkages (more trade and foreign direct investment) between Spain and these countries, specially in Brazil, seem to explain increased equity markets interconnectedness.
    Keywords: Emerging markets, Latin America, Spain, Stock markets interdependence, VAR modeling
    Date: 2023–04
  21. By: Calveira, Martín
    Abstract: El presente trabajo analiza el proceso de transformación de la Republica Socialista de Vietnam iniciado en la década de 1980 a partir de reformas estructurales incluidas en el programa denominado Doi Moi (Renovación). Ese conjunto de medidas integrales tuvieron resultados notablemente favorables en términos de crecimiento económico y desarrollo productivo y social. En ese sentido la gestión de los cambios fue convergente con los objetivos de Productividad Inclusiva, principalmente al observar la inversión en capital humano derivado del énfasis en la educación.
    Date: 2023–05–31
  22. By: Gert G. Wagner
    Abstract: Für das im Jahr 2025 stattfindende 100-jährige Jubiläum des DIW Berlin und dessen Geschichte ist die hier vorgelegte Dokumentation eines 1999 geführten Gesprächs zwischen den ehemaligen DIW-Abteilungsleitern Fritz Franzmeyer und Reinhard Pohl einerseits und Gert G. Wagner andererseits von Interesse, das die Frage thematisiert, warum das Deutsche Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin) in der Öffentlichkeit seit Jahrzehnten als "arbeitnehmernah" und "keynesianisch" etikettiert wurde. Die Dokumentation wurde bislang nicht veröffentlicht; die vorliegende Fassung wurde auf Basis eines eingescannten Ausdrucks im Mai 2023 fertiggestellt; inhaltliche Änderungen wurden nicht vorgenommen.
    Keywords: German Institute for Economic Research, DIW Berlin, History, Keynesianism
    JEL: B22 B31 Z13
    Date: 2023
  23. By: Nazrullaeva, Eugenia (School of Public Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science; CAGE, University of Warwick); Harrison, Mark (Department of Economics and CAGE, University of Warwick ; CEPR)
    Abstract: Who is targeted by preventive repression and why? In the Soviet Union, the KGB applied a form of low-intensity preventive policing, called profilaktika. Citizens found to be engaging in politically and socially disruptive misdemeanors were invited to discuss their behavior and to receive a warning. Using novel data from Lithuania, a former Soviet republic, in the late 1950s and the 1970s, we study the profile and behaviors of the citizens who became subjects of interest to the KGB. We use topic modeling to investigate the operational focuses of profilaktika. We find that profilaktika began as a way of managing specific threats or “known risks” that arose from the experience of postwar Sovietization. The proportion of “unknown risks” – people without risk factors in their background or personal records – increased by the 1970s. These people were targeted because of their anti-Soviet behaviour, which the KGB attributed to “contagious” foreign influences and the spread of harmful values.
    Keywords: coercion ; communism ; preventive repression ; security ; social norms ; surveillance ; Soviet Union JEL codes: N44 ; P37
    Date: 2023
  24. By: Karen Clay; Joshua A. Lewis; Edson R. Severnini
    Abstract: Historically coal has offered both benefits and costs to urban areas. Benefits include coal’s role in fueling industry and thus employment. The primary costs are air pollution and its impact on human health. This paper starts by using a Rosen-Roback style model to examine how differences in local coal availability affect equilibrium city employment. Drawing on the model, the paper surveys papers that examine the net effects of coal on the growth in city population and air pollution on health. The paper then turns to papers that explicitly consider the trade-offs between production benefits and pollution disamenities across space and over time. The paper ends with a discussion of opportunities for future work on coal and cities in historical settings.
    JEL: N52 N72 O13 Q53 Q56
    Date: 2023–06
  25. By: Ander Pérez-Orive; Yannick Timmer
    Abstract: The stance of U.S. monetary policy has tightened significantly starting in March 2022. At the same time, the share of firms in financial distress has reached a level that is higher than during most previous tightening episodes since the 1970s.
    Date: 2023–06–23
  26. By: Henderson, J. Vernon; Liu, Vivian
    Abstract: Rapidly growing cities in sub-Saharan Africa face immense population pressures. Weak institutions and outdated regulations inherited from the colonial era threaten to stifle their progress. This paper examines the institutions underlying the operation of urban land markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, focusing on property rights, the evolution of cities and their spatial layout, planning, and property taxes. Countries typically have a dual system of property rights, with in theory formal rights in cities, communal tenure in rural areas, and a transition between the two systems at growing city boundaries. However, large portions of cities operate outside these systems under informal rights. Using case studies and within city variation, we review the historical evolution of these systems in a number of African cities. We argue that cities lacking formal property rights tend to build lower and less intensively, often with slums persisting near the city center, where there is much higher value alternative use. We further explore the relationship between lack of owner occupancy and wealth inequality, as partially affected by the transition to private property rights. Next, we discuss the critical role of planning. Francophone countries for instance historically imposed comprehensive planning on urban land markets compared to Anglophone counterparts. This resulted in greater contiguity and density of land use, gridded urban layouts, and less leapfrogging in new developments. Where planning is weak, special initiatives such as sites and services may impose planning on certain greenfield neighbourhoods, with benefits accruing in the future. The paper then examines problems in property tax enforcement and collection, discussing reforms to improve collections. The paper concludes with a discussion of policy considerations and a research agenda.
    Keywords: land markets; urban planning; sub-Saharan Africa; urban development; colonialism
    JEL: H00 H26 O17 O18 P48 R10 R30
    Date: 2023–06–01
  27. By: Kendall Oswald (Department of Chemistry [University of Warwick] - University of Warwick [Coventry])
    Abstract: This research article provides an overview of gender discrimination, including its historical roots and contemporary manifestations. Discrimination based on gender has been a pervasive issue throughout history, with women facing barriers to education, employment, and political participation. Although progress has been made towards gender equality, gender discrimination still persists in many forms today. Gender-based violence, workplace inequality, legal barriers, and poverty are among the contemporary issues that disproportionately affect women. This article highlights the importance of addressing the root causes of gender discrimination and working towards the creation of a society that values and respects individuals regardless of their gender identity or expression. Education, policy reform, and advocacy efforts aimed at promoting gender equality can help create a more just and equitable world for all.
    Keywords: Gender Discrimination, Contemporary Issues, Gender-Based Violence, Workplace Inequality, Legal Barriers, Human Rights, Gender Equality, Policy Reform, Advocacy Efforts
    Date: 2023
  28. By: Robbie Noel Wilson; Aleksandar Vasilev
    Abstract: This paper analyses the quantitative welfare effects of the Thatcherism taxation programme reforms. Modern macroeconomic techniques are put into application to the important historical fiscal reforms. The Paper provides details of the Thatcherism taxation reform, the changes in taxation rates and brackets. Through a dynamic general equilibrium model, the paper provides counter-factual growth rates. A comparison between the factual and counter-factual growth rates is given. The paper finds that through both welfare measures, that welfare increased due to the Thatcherism taxation program. These results will provide use and benefit for; policymakers, those studying the Laffer-Curve, those with supply-side economic ideas or beliefs, and those studying the economic, political, and historical period under the Thatcher government.
    Keywords: Thatcher government, tax reform, general equilibrium, endogenous growth model, compensatory variation
    JEL: E32
    Date: 2023–06–02
  29. By: Ahmet Ihsan Kaya; Cumhur Çiçekçi
    Abstract: This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the supply and demand side of structural transformation in Turkey. Using the GGDC/UNU-WIDER Economic Transformation Database, we find that labour productivity improvements explain more than half of economic growth in the period 1980-2021. This is mainly thanks to within-sector productivity improvements, while the contribution of structural change declines over time. Time-series regression analysis shows that structural change is driven by per capita income growth and financial openness but is halted by trade integration.
    Keywords: Labour productivity, Structural transformation, Economic growth, Input–output, Economic linkages
    Date: 2023
  30. By: Benk, Szilárd; Gillman, Max
    Abstract: The paper adds money supply and inflation expectations shocks to a well-known three-variable structural model that identifies oil price shocks through fundamentals affecting the oil market. Impulse responses show the significance of our two additional monetary shocks in impacting real oil prices. By subtracting from the money supply the temporary Federal Reserve swaps that were used to increase liquidity during the 2008 and 2020 bank crises, shocks upwards in both the adjusted M1 money supply and to inflation expectations significantly increase real oil prices; with the unadjusted M1 aggregate there is no signiÖcant effect of money supply shocks on real oil prices. Decomposition of historical oil price shocks shows a significant role played by inflation expectations and the money supply shocks during major oil shock episodes. These shocks partially replace roles previously attributed to the precautionary oil demand shock and the aggregate demand shock during the three major oil shock periods of the 1970s-1980s, post-2008 and during the 2020-2021 pandemic. The results show that both real oil price shocks and expected inflation shocks cause real GDP to fall.
    Keywords: Real Oil Price Shocks, SVAR, Money Supply, Inflation Expectations
    JEL: Q41 Q43 E31 E52
    Date: 2023
  31. By: Mario Carillo; Gemma Dipoppa; Shanker Satyanath
    Abstract: Official reports from the International Labor Organization have been increasingly highlighting the pervasive presence of forced labor, especially involving migrants, in the developed world. There is, however, little work explaining the demand-side determinants of modern forced labor. We address this gap by focusing on variations in modern forced labor within a single developed country (Italy). Regression discontinuity and triple differences designs show that modern forced labor is strongly associated with prior exposure to the ideology of the Italian Fascist regime (1922-43) which emphasized the subjugation of non-white ethnic groups (the primary subjects of forced labor).
    Keywords: political extremism, ideology, labor coercion, migration
    JEL: J7 J15 J81 O15 P00 Z00
    Date: 2023–06
  32. By: Estrin, Saul
    JEL: J50
    Date: 2021–12–01
  33. By: Boris Gershman; Tinatin Mumladze
    Abstract: Headhunting is the practice of acquiring human heads for ritual purposes that was historically widespread around the world. We hypothesize that headhunting emerged as a cultural response to frequent inter-tribal warfare and served as a mechanism to train warriors ready to defend their community. The practice was effective since, first, it allowed to verify warrior quality based on performance in headhunting raids and, second, it offered a system of rewards for men to develop and refine warfare skills. We use phylogenetic comparative methods and ethnographic data to empirically investigate this hypothesis in a sample of preindustrial Austronesian societies. Headhunting turns out to be substantially more prevalent in societies exposed to frequent warfare, accounting for shared cultural ancestry and a host of potentially confounding characteristics. Furthermore, Bayesian estimation of correlated evolution models suggests that, consistent with our hypothesis, the adoption of headhunting was driven by increased warfare frequency and the decline of this practice followed a reduction in intergroup conflict.
    Keywords: Austronesia, Conflict, Correlated evolution, Culture, Headhunting, Phylogenetic comparative methods, Supernatural beliefs, Warfare
    JEL: D74 Z12 Z13
    Date: 2023
  34. By: Stefan Bauernschuster (University of Passau); Matthias Blum (German Medical Association); Erik Hornung (University of Cologne); Christoph Koenig (University of Rome Tor Vergata)
    Abstract: How do health crises affect election results? We combine a panel of election results from 1893-1933 with spatial heterogeneity in excess mortality due to the 1918 Influenza to assess the pandemic's effect on voting behavior across German constituencies. Applying a dynamic differences-in-differences approach, we find that areas with higher influenza mortality saw a lasting shift towards left-wing parties. We argue that pandemic intensity increased the salience of public health policy, prompting voters to reward parties signaling competence in health issues. Alternative explanations such as pandemic-induced economic hardship, punishment of incumbents for inadequate policy responses, or polarization of the electorate towards more extremist parties are not supported by our findings.
    Keywords: Pandemics, Elections, Health, Voting behavior, Issue salience, Issue ownership, Weimar Republic
    JEL: D72 I18 N34 H51
    Date: 2023–06
  35. By: Meng, Xin (Australian National University)
    Abstract: In the past forty years the Chinese economy achieved miracle growth and many attributed a significant part of this to China's favourable labour supply flowing from the "demographic dividend": a larger share of working age population (WAPS). Currently, this dividend is slipping away and many in China are very concerned. Against this background I set out to examine the contributions of various dimensions of China's changing WAPS and its impact on economic growth. I show that between 1982-2015 the increase in the WAPS was offset by a decline in the labour force participation rate, resulting in a very limited increase in the quantity of labour supply. I then estimate the association between regional variations in economic growth and changes in factors such as population size, WAPS, migration, education. The results lend little support to the view that increasing WAPS played a major role in China's economic growth over this period.
    Keywords: labor supply, demographic dividends, China
    JEL: J10 J11 J21
    Date: 2023–06
  36. By: Patrice Ballester (Euridis - Euridis Business School, M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche)
    Abstract: Interview with Patrice Ballester for Le VIF about overtourism in Barcelona. Trampling the cobblestones of Europe by the thousands, the tourists ended up causing a fed up on their way. Congestion, incivility, noise, saturation of spaces, loss of living comfort for residents. From Barcelona to Venice, via Amsterdam, here is why the fight is necessary but delicate. It is necessary to have a geographical, historical and marketing analysis to understand the consequences of globalization - mass tourism.
    Abstract: Interview de Patrice Ballester pour Le VIF au sujet du surtourisme à Barcelone. Foulant les pavés d'Europe par milliers, les touristes ont fini par provoquer un ras-le-bol sur leur passage. Congestion, incivilité, bruit, saturation des espaces, perte du confort de vie des habitants. De Barcelone à Venise, en passant par Amsterdam, voici pourquoi le combat est nécessaire mais délicat. Il est nécessaire d'avoir une analyse géographique, historique et marketing pour comprendre les conséquences de la mondialisation - tourisme de masse.
    Keywords: overtourism, leisure, waterfront, globalization, city, migration, Barcelona, surtourisme, loisir, front de mer, mondialisation, ville, Barcelone
    Date: 2022–06–22
  37. By: Kalyanpur, Nikhil
    Abstract: Globalization did not negate state power. It changed the toolkit. We expected the norms and incentives of the liberal economic order to push regimes in places like China and Russia to democratize. Instead, authoritarianism appears to be thriving. This article argues that authoritarians have learned how to take advantage of the institutions underpinning globalization for their own illiberal ends. They use courts in major economic powers to negate the effects of international institutions and to target their political competition. They subvert our expectations by repurposing the basic premises of liberalism–predictability and openness. The article demonstrates these claims by examining how the institutions of multiple international economic regimes, which were designed as constraints, have been turned into offensive tools. The findings illustrate that International Political Economy (IPE) scholars need to begin analyzing how governments learned these tactics and whether we can reconcile the contradictions they exploit.
    Keywords: International order; economic coercion; global governance; illiberalism; statecraft; transnational law; Taylor & Francis deal
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2023–06–13
  38. By: Ina Ganguli (University of Massachusetts Amherst); Fabian Waldinger (LMU Munich)
    Abstract: We discuss the impacts of the Russian invasion on Ukrainian science. Using newly collected data, we show that the war has already had significant effects on science in Ukraine: research papers produced by Ukrainian scientists declined by about 10%, approximately 5% of the most prolific scientists are publishing with a foreign affiliation, 22% of top universities have faced destruction of physical capital, and international collaborations with Russian scientists have declined by more than 40%. Drawing upon the economics of science and innovation literature, we highlight three primary channels through which wars impact science: 1) the loss of human capital, 2) the destruction of physical capital, and 3) reductions in international scientific cooperation. The evidence from the literature on the long-run effects of losing human or physical capital indicates that shocks to physical capital can be remedied more easily than shocks to human capital. Our new data also suggests that human capital shocks are the main drivers of the reduction in Ukrainian research output that has occurred since the beginning of the war. Hence, reconstruction efforts should be focused on supporting scientists to continue in the research sector and to return to Ukraine after the war has ended.
    Keywords: war and science; scientific human capital; physical capital destruction; international migration; international scientific cooperation;
    JEL: H52 I23 I25 J44 J61 J62 O38 O52
    Date: 2023–06–21
  39. By: João Ricardo Faria; Peter McAdam
    Abstract: We derive a general “Janus” money demand function that reflects backward- and forward-looking habit formation. The scope of our model allows us to explain the breakdown of money-demand functions and reduced policy relevance of monetary aggregates. Integrating our Janus money demand into a Barro-Gordon framework reveals new insights for time inconsistency in monetary policy and a new impossibility theorem.
    Keywords: money demand; monetary policy; impossibility theorem
    JEL: E41 E5 E61 E71
    Date: 2023–05–11
  40. By: Raghuram Rajan; Rodney Ramcharan
    Abstract: We study how the availability of credit shapes adaptation to a climatic shock, specifically, the long 1950s US drought. We find that bank lending, net immigration, and population growth decline sharply in drought exposed areas with limited initial access to bank finance. In contrast, agricultural investment and long-run productivity increase more in drought-exposed areas when they have access to bank finance, even allowing some of these areas to leapfrog otherwise similar areas in the subsequent decades. We also find unequal access to finance can drive migration from drought-hit finance-poor communities to finance-rich communities. These results suggest that broadening access to finance can enable communities to adapt to large adverse climatic shocks and reduce emigration.
    JEL: G0 J0 Q0
    Date: 2023–06
  41. By: Franck Bessis (TRIANGLE - Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2); Paul Cotton (TRIANGLE - Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon)
    Keywords: Microsimulation, Open data, Open access
    Date: 2022
  42. By: Yasmine Bekkouche (ECARES - European Center for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics - ULB - Université libre de Bruxelles); Yannick Dupraz (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: We revisit the question of colonial legacies in education by focusing on quality rather than quantity. We study Cameroon, a country where a Francophone education system with French colonial origins coexists with an Anglophone system with British colonial origins. This allows us to investigate the impact of different teaching practices on students' test scores. We find that pupils schooled in the Francophone system perform better in mathematics in Grade 5, with test scores higher by two thirds of a standard deviation. Thanks to detailed school survey data, we are able to account for a wide array of inputs of the education production function, such as the economic and social conditions of students, the material conditions of the schools and classrooms, as well as some information on the teachers' practices and pedagogical culture. We find that Francophone schools have better classroom equipment and that Francophone teachers use more vertical teaching methods, but that these differences cannot explain why Francophone students perform better in mathematics. In the end, we cannot pin down the exact mechanism behind our result.
    Keywords: Education, School quality, Colonial legacies, Africa
    Date: 2023–06–21
  43. By: Lundvall, Bengt-Åke (Aalborg Business School, Aalborg University)
    Abstract: The world has been through several major crises since the beginning of the new millennium and the old-world order, with the US as hegemonic power, is challenged by the rise of China. There has been a reversal of, as well as directional change in, the globalization trend. A weakening of international collaboration is taking place against a backdrop of global challenges such as climate change, digital revolution and global inequality, challenges calling for coordinated action. Starting from a knowledge-based world system perspective, the paper reflects on, what this means for innovation and development strategies in the South. Which are the main threats and opportunities in the current era? Which lessons can be drawn from the rise of China? What are the implications for research agendas?
    Keywords: world system theory; development theory; Wallerstein; Freeman; knowledge; innovation systems
    JEL: B52 O19 O30
    Date: 2023–06–22
  44. By: Guada, Irwin; Harvey, John T
    Abstract: n late 2015, Caltrans requested that 26 recently constructed concrete projects be tested for smoothness in terms of the International Roughness Index (IRI). The stated purpose was to observe measured IRI on projects accepted after a standard special provision (SSP) change that Caltrans made in 2013 and that was incorporated into the 2015 Construction Contract Standards. The projects provided 52 test sections for evaluation, consisting of three types of paving work: (1) diamond grind on existing pavement, (2) new continuously reinforced concrete pavement, and (3) new jointed plain concrete pavement. The project plans had completion dates from May 2010 to December 2014, and contract acceptance dates from April 2014 to October 2015. Caltrans did not identify which projects had the new SSP or specification change in its contract documents. The IRI data were collected from October 2016 to December of 2016. The IRI data collected included the effects of paving, any corrective grinding required to meet contract acceptance, and the increased roughness caused by traffic over post-construction periods of one to more than two and a half years. At the time of testing in 2016, the UCPRC test vehicle was equipped with a point laser in the left wheel path and a wide spot laser in the right wheel path. The data presented in this technical memorandum are primarily from the wide spot laser because the current standards require the wide spot laser. In general, the IRI measured by a point laser can be unduly increased due to the surface texture of the pavement, which is part of the reason for moving toward a wide spot laser. The construction specification considers both wheel paths and not just the right wheel path tested in this project. The IRI data using the wide spot laser in the right wheel path alone showed that 22% of the 0.1 mi. long sections met the construction standard of 60 in./mi. when measured one to two and a half years after construction. Based on the results from the right wheel path and the wide spot laser, 67% of the right wheel path sections are in good condition with IRI values between 60 and 94 in./mi., 28% are in acceptable condition with IRI values between 95 and 170 in./mi., and 5% are in poor condition with IRI values of 170 in./mi. or greater. Although Caltrans did not identify which projects included the new specification, a trend was observed that projects completed later had lower IRI values than those completed several years earlier.
    Keywords: Engineering, smoothness, roughness, International Roughness Index (IRI), point laser, wide spot laser, wheel path
    Date: 2022–06–01
  45. By: Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Dario Laudati; Lee Ohanian; Vincenzo Quadrini
    Abstract: After 162 years of political unification, Italy still displays large regional economic differences. In 2019, the per capita GDP of Lombardia was 39, 700 euros, but Calabria’s per capita GDP was only 17, 300 euros. We build a two-region, two-sector model of the Italian economy to measure the wedges that could account for the differences in aggregate variables between the North and the South. We find that the largest driver of the regional disparity in per capita output is the difference in total factor productivity, followed by fiscal redistribution. These two factors, together, account for more than 70 percent of the output disparity between the North and the South.
    Keywords: Italian economy, macroeconomic wedges, regional fiscal redistribution, regional convergence
    JEL: E10 E60
    Date: 2023
  46. By: Barcucci, Valentina,; Bonnet, Florence,; Cooney, Sean,
    Abstract: Abstract.
    Keywords: informal economy, labour law
    Date: 2023
  47. By: Gudynas, Eduardo (Centro Latino Americano de Ecología Social - CLAES)
    Abstract: Se examinan aspectos destacados del programa de “misiones” propuesto por Mariana Mazzucato, cuya meta es reformar el desarrollo capitalista, atendiendo a su popularidad en gobiernos latinoamericanos. Se consideran sus bases con-ceptuales, sus implicancias para América Latina, en especial las referidas a los extractivismos. Se advierten sobre limitaciones, simplificaciones y contradicciones, en especial las que resultan de su apego al crecimiento. Su propuesta es parte del diverso conjunto de reformas del capitalismo. También está embebida en el colonialismo de transferir estrategias de desarrollo y en una colonialidad en los saberes, por los cuales actores políticos, académicos, empresariales e incluso ciudadanos del sur recurren a propuestas del norte, olvidando o minimizando los aportes propios de América Latina.
    Date: 2023–06–23
  48. By: Rivadeneira Alex
    Abstract: In this paper, I document the existence of unconditional convergence in labor productivity across Mexican states in three-digit manufacturing industries. The rate of convergence for the period 1988-2018 is 1.18% per year. However, this result does not hold at the aggregate level: I find no unconditional convergence in manufacturing-wide labor productivity across states. Shift-sharing analysis reveals that the primary reason for this is the lack of labor reallocation towards more productive industries, and the underperformance of some of the largest ones. Unconditional convergence at all levels only occurred during 1988-1998. Afterward, the convergence process broke down and was only observed at disaggregated levels. I provide evidence that one possible cause of this breakdown is the so-called "China shock". Additionally, I show that the convergence process, when it happened, has tended to exhibit a catching-down feature, where past-leaders have seen their labor productivity decline.
    Keywords: Growth;Convergence;Manufacturing;Mexico
    JEL: O40 O14 O54
    Date: 2023–07
  49. By: David Laidler (University of Western Ontario)
    Abstract: Modern mainstream macroeconomics treats the economy “as if†always in equilibrium. Two older traditions, Monetarism and the Wicksell Connections have always dissented, arguing that how agents gather information and apply it to the coordination of their activities are prior problems requiring attention before equilibrium can, or cannot, be assumed. They have developed the implications of this claim along different lines, however, with the former dealing with questions raised by the existence of monetary exchange in general and the latter concentrating in particular on inter-temporal issues. This gap has persisted since Wicksell opened it up, and has never been satisfactorily bridged: why?
    Keywords: Wicksell, monetarism, information, coordination, equilibrium
    JEL: B13 B22 D50 D80 E10
    Date: 2023
  50. By: Macher, Jeffrey (University of Basel); Rutzer, Christian (University of Basel); Weder, Rolf (University of Basel)
    Abstract: Despite tremendous growth in the volume of new scientific and technological knowledge, the popular press has recently raised concerns that disruptive innovative activity is slowing. These dire prognoses were mainly driven by Park et al. (2023), a Nature publication that uses decades of data and millions of observations coupled with a novel quantitative metric (the CD index) that characterizes innovation in science and technology as either consolidating or disruptive. We challenge the Park et al. (2023) methodology and findings, principally around concerns of truncation bias and exclusion bias. We show that 88 percent of the decrease in disruptive patents over 1980-2010 reported by the authors can be explained by their truncation of all backward citations before 1976. We also show that this truncation bias varies by technology class. We update the analysis to 2016 and account for a change in U.S. patent law that allows for citations to patent applications in addition to patent grants, which is ignored by the authors in their analysis. We show that the number of highly disruptive patents has increased since 1980---particularly in IT technologies. Our results suggest caution in using the Park et al. (2023) methodology as a basis for research and decision making in public policy, industry restructuring or firm reorganization aimed at altering the current innovation landscape.
    Keywords: Disruptive Innovation, Truncation Bias, Exclusion Bias, U.S. Patent Law Change
    JEL: O30 O32 O33
    Date: 2023–06–19
  51. By: Hugo Bailly (GEJP - Georgetown Environmental Justice Program [Washington] - GU - Georgetown University [Washington], CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Deloitte Economic Advisory); Frédéric Mortier (GEJP - Georgetown Environmental Justice Program [Washington] - GU - Georgetown University [Washington], UPR Forêts et Sociétés - Forêts et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Gaël Giraud (GEJP - Georgetown Environmental Justice Program [Washington] - GU - Georgetown University [Washington])
    Abstract: The Goodwin-Keen model was introduced to reflect the structural instability of debt-financed economies. The appeal of the model lies in its ability to reflect an economy that can either converge towards a Solow-like trajectory or towards a debt crisis. However, no empirical study has focused on the model up to now. Using u.s. data for non-financial firms over the period 1959-2019, this paper tests the empirical validity of an extended Goodwin-Keen model taking dividend payments into account. We propose an original two-step estimation procedure to simultaneously estimate parameters and quantify their uncertainty. We show that the model captures the historical cycles in the wage share and employment rate, while reflecting the trend growth in the debt-to-output ratio. This relatively good fit is achieved with sensible parameter estimates but a large uncertainty, indicating notably that the model fails to fully capture the debt dynamics. Finally, we show that, according to the estimated model projections, the probability of occurrence of a corporate debt crisis in the next century is less than 1%. Although the Goodwin-Keen model is too simplistic to reflect financial instability as a whole, our results show that it could be a useful framework for the development of larger macroeconomic models.
    Keywords: Goodwin-Keen model, Macroeconometrics, Dynamical systems in macroeconomics, Corporate debt, Financial instability
    Date: 2023–06–24
  52. By: Sutirtha Bagchi (Department of Economics, Villanova School of Business, Villanova University); Libor Dušek (Charles University, Faculty of Law)
    Abstract: This paper examines the hypothesis that an improvement in tax collections causally leads to bigger government. We exploit the staggered introduction of withholding of the state personal income tax by U.S. states between 1948 and 1987 and find that withholding led to an increase in tax revenues by about 28 percent. We derive a theoretical model through which we interpret the estimates distinguishing between a mechanical increase in tax collections driven by reduced noncompliance, subsequent adjustments in revenue choices in response to that reduced noncompliance, and an increase in the underlying demand for revenue that may have motivated the adoption of withholding. Governments responded to the improvement in personal income tax collections by shifting the composition of revenues towards a heavier reliance on this tax. States also increased tax rates as they implemented withholding, which suggests that a need to raise more revenue was an important motive for adopting withholding.
    Keywords: Political economy of taxation; Size of government; Third-party reporting; Withholding
    JEL: H11 H21 H26 H71 N42
    Date: 2023–07
  53. By: Jeffrey T. Macher; Christian Rutzer; Rolf Weder
    Abstract: Despite tremendous growth in the volume of new scientific and technological knowledge, the popular press has recently raised concerns that disruptive innovative activity is slowing. These dire prognoses were mainly driven by Park et al. (2023), a Nature publication that uses decades of data and millions of observations coupled with a novel quantitative metric (the CD index) that characterizes innovation in science and technology as either consolidating or disruptive. We challenge the Park et al. (2023) methodology and findings, principally around concerns of truncation bias and exclusion bias. We show that 88 percent of the decrease in disruptive patents over 1980-2010 reported by the authors can be explained by their truncation of all backward citations before 1976. We also show that this truncation bias varies by technology class. We update the analysis to 2016 and account for a change in U.S. patent law that allows for citations to patent applications in addition to patent grants, which is ignored by the authors in their analysis. We show that the number of highly disruptive patents has increased since 1980 -- particularly in IT technologies. Our results suggest caution in using the Park et al. (2023) methodology as a basis for research and decision making in public policy, industry restructuring or firm reorganization aimed at altering the current innovation landscape.
    Date: 2023–06

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NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.