nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2023‒07‒17
33 papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Northumbria University

  1. How Rich Were the Rich? An Empirically-Based Taxonomy of Pre-Industrial Bases of Wealth By Milanovic, Branko
  2. Black Empowerment and White Mobilization: The Effects of the Voting Rights Act By Bernini, Andrea; Facchini, Giovanni; Tabellini, Marco; Testa, Cecilia
  3. Blowing against the Wind? A Narrative Approach to Central Bank Foreign Exchange Intervention By Alain Naef
  4. Intergenerational mobility in 19th-century Italy: A case study approach By Giuliana Freschi; Marco Martinez
  5. Book review "Making Commercial Law Through Practice" By Jérôme Sgard
  6. The South African Census Project By Wehner, Joachim; de Kadt, Daniel
  7. The limits of hegemony: U.S. banks and Chilean firms in the Cold War By Felipe Aldunate; Felipe Gonzalez; Mounu Prem
  8. Second World War and the direction of medical innovation By Bhaven Sampat
  9. The Consequences of Hometown Regiment : What Happened in Hometown When the Soldiers Never Returned? By ASAI, Kentaro; KAMBAYASHI, Ryo
  10. Piero Sraffa – Doing ‘History in Reverse' By Eric Rahim
  11. Mobilité géographique et transmission intergénérationnelle du revenu au Québec By Yacine Boujija; Marie Connolly; Xavier St-Denis
  12. War Discourse and the Cross Section of Expected Stock Returns By David Hirshleifer; Dat Mai; Kuntara Pukthuanthong
  13. Estimating Historical Inequality from Social Tables: Towards Methodological Consistency By von Fintel, Dieter; Links, Calumet; Green, Erik
  14. De-skilling: Evidence from Late Nineteenth Century American Manufacturing By Jeremy Atack; Robert A. Margo; Paul Rhode
  15. The Permanent Settlement and the emergence of a British state in late-eighteenth-century India By Roy, Tirthankar
  16. A Comment on Dincecco et al. (2022): Pre-Colonial Warfare and Long-Run Development in India By Forshaw, Rachel; Ölkers, Tim; Sethi, Ritika; Sovani, Manali
  17. Paying them to hate US: The effect of U.S. military aid on anti-American terrorism, 1968-2018 By Dimant, Eugen; Krieger, Tim; Meierrieks, Daniel
  18. Prebisch and Singer in the Egyptian cotton fields By Diab, Osama
  19. Eight Decades of Changes in Occupational Tasks, Computerization and the Gender Pay Gap By Ljubica Nedelkoska; Shreyas Gadgin Matha; James McNerney; Andre Assumpcao; Dario Diodato; Frank Neffke
  20. Educational Mobility Across Three Generations in Latin American Countries By Pablo Celhay; Sebastian Gallegos
  21. Peter Howitt - A Keynesian Still in Recovery By David Laidler
  22. “Value in exchange”: Pufendorf’s moral quantities in Smith’s quantities of labour By Michele Bee; Ivan Sternick
  23. Forced Migration and Local Economic Development: Evidence from Postwar Hungary By Daniel Borbely; Ross Mckenzie
  24. The Debt-Inflation Channel of the German Hyperinflation By Markus K. Brunnermeier; Sergio A. Correia; Stephan Luck; Emil Verner; Tom Zimmermann
  25. L'impact de la guerre du Soudan de 2023 sur l'Afrique et au-delà By Kohnert, Dirk
  26. The Confederate Diaspora By Samuel Bazzi; Andreas Ferrara; Martin Fiszbein; Thomas P. Pearson; Patrick A. Testa
  27. Japan’s Corporate Governance Transformation: Convergence or Reconfiguration? », Administrative sciences By Theo Renou; René Carrraz; Thierry Burger-Helmchen
  28. Political Conflict and Economic Growth in Post-Independence Venezuela By Dorothy Kronick; Francisco Rodr\'iguez
  29. The Impact of Peacekeeping on Post-Deployment Earnings for Swedish Veterans By Bäckström, Peter; Hanes, Niklas
  30. The Dynamics of the “Great Gatsby Curve”, and a look at the curve during the Great Gatsby Era By Diego Battiston; Stephan Maurer; Andrei Potlogea; Jose V. Rodriguez Mora
  31. How the 1963 Equal Pay Act and 1964 Civil Rights Act Shaped the Gender Gap in Pay By Martha J. Bailey; Thomas E. Helgerman; Bryan A. Stuart
  32. The far-reaching effects of bombing on fertility in mid-20th century Japan By Tatsuki Inoue amd Erika Igarashi
  33. Comment on "Historical Lynchings and the Contemporary Voting Behavior of Blacks" By Haddad, Joanne; Kattan, Lamis; Wochner, Timo

  1. By: Milanovic, Branko
    Abstract: The paper uses fifty social tables, ranging from Greece in 330 BC to Mexico in 1940 to estimate the share and level of income of the top 1 percent in pre-industrial societies. The share of the top 1 percent covers a vast range from around 10 percent to more than 40 percent of society’s income and does not always move together with the estimated Gini coefficient and the Inequality Extraction Ratio. I provide a taxonomy of pre-industrial societies based on the social class and type of assets (land, control of government, merchant capital, citizenship) that are associated with the top classes as well as lack of assets associated with poverty. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper)
    Date: 2023–06–12
  2. By: Bernini, Andrea (University of Oxford); Facchini, Giovanni (University of Nottingham); Tabellini, Marco (Harvard Business School); Testa, Cecilia (University of Nottingham)
    Abstract: The 1965 Voting Rights Act (VRA) paved the road to Black empowerment. How did southern whites respond? Leveraging newly digitized data on county-level voter registration rates by race between 1956 and 1980, and exploiting pre-determined variation in exposure to the federal intervention, we document that the VRA increases both Black and white political participation. Consistent with the VRA triggering countermobilization, the surge in white registrations is concentrated where Black political empowerment is more tangible and salient due to the election of African Americans in county commissions. Additional analysis suggests that the VRA has long-lasting negative effects on whites' racial attitudes.
    Keywords: civil rights, race, voting behavior, enfranchisement
    JEL: D72 J15 H70 N92
    Date: 2023–06
  3. By: Alain Naef
    Abstract: Most countries in the world use foreign exchange interventions, but measuring the success of the policy is difficult. By using a narrative approach, I identify interventions when the central bank manages to reverse the exchange rate based on pure luck. I separate them from interventions when the central bank actually impacted the exchange rate. Because intervention records are daily aggregates, an intervention might appear to have changed the direction of the exchange rate, when it is more likely to have been caused by market news. This analysis allows to have a better understanding of how successful central bank operations really are. I use new daily data on Bank of England interventions in the 1980s and 1990s. Some studies find that interventions work in up to 80% of cases. Yet, by accounting for intraday market moving news, I find in adverse conditions, the Bank of England managed to influence the exchange rate only in 8% of cases. I use natural language processing to confirm the validity of the narrative approach. Using Lasso and a VAR analysis, I investigate what makes the Bank of England intervene during that period. I find that only movement on the Deutschmark and not US dollar exchange rate made the Bank intervene. Also, I find that interest rate hikes were mostly a tool for currency management and accompanied by large reserve sales.
    Keywords: Intervention, Foreign Exchange, Natural Language Processing, Central Bank, Bank of England
    JEL: F31 E5 N14 N24
    Date: 2023
  4. By: Giuliana Freschi; Marco Martinez
    Abstract: This paper aims at exploring the dynamics of intergenerational mobility of occupations in 19th-century Italy, by investigating the relationship between social mobility and industrialization at its very early stages. In this endeavor, we draw upon individual-level occupational data from marriage certificates collected from four different State archives for two benchmark years, 1815 and 1866. We follow a case-study approach, focusing on two medium-size cities and surrounding municipalities that would have played a role in the country's industrial development and two rural areas (Brescia, Salerno, the province of Udine, and Pisticci). Unlike most studies on intergenerational mobility, this paper provides estimates both on male and female mobility. Both men and women exhibited an increase in mobility throughout the 19th century, but the increase was more pronounced for women. This work makes a first attempt to investigate the drivers of mobility of occupations in pre-industrial Italy. In particular, we draw the attention on the association between literacy and social mobility. We explain the limited role of literacy in increasing social mobility rates by pointing out that, at the time, limited educational provision, particularly for girls, meant that being educated was a result of high social status rather than an active channel through which individuals could improve their occupational status through higher education.
    Keywords: Social mobility; Literacy; Italy; Risorgimento; Gender.
    Date: 2023–06–26
  5. By: Jérôme Sgard (CERI - Centre de recherches internationales (Sciences Po, CNRS) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Book review - Making Commercial Law Through Practice, 1830–1970. By Ross Cranston. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2021. Pp. 483.
    Keywords: economic history, commercial law
    Date: 2022–12
  6. By: Wehner, Joachim (London School of Economics and Political Science); de Kadt, Daniel
    Abstract: Commencing in 2016 this project set out to digitize the entire historical census stock of South Africa, covering a century of data from the first census undertaken in the Cape of Good Hope in 1865 and until the 1960s. This note covers background, archive contents and digitisation, and our research agenda and initial outputs. Please cite this note if you use the images in research and publications.
    Date: 2023–06–13
  7. By: Felipe Aldunate (Universidad de Los Andes, ESE Business School); Felipe Gonzalez (Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance); Mounu Prem (Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance)
    Abstract: Governments in hegemonic states use economic sanctions to induce changes in other countries. What happens to international business networks when these sanctions are in place? We use new historical firm-level data to document the destruction of financial relations between U.S. banks and Chilean firms after socialist Salvador Allende took office in 1970. Business reports and stock prices suggest that firms were mostly unaffected by having fewer links with U.S. banks. Substitution of financial relations towards domestic banks appears to be the key mechanism explaining these findings.
    Keywords: firms, banks, Cold War, United States, Salvador Allende.
    Date: 2023–06–21
  8. By: Bhaven Sampat
    Abstract: This paper provides an overview of the role of the United States of America (U.S.) Second World War research effort on the direction of innovation, with a particular focus on medical research. It provides an overview of the U.S. wartime research program, reviews quantitative evidence on the effects of the overall wartime research shock on postwar patenting, describes the wartime medical research effort, and summarizes case studies of five major wartime medical research programs (penicillin, antimalarials, vaccines, blood substitutes, and hormones) and their effects on postwar R&D. It concludes by drawing out implications for crisis innovation and the direction of innovation in general, discussing mechanisms through which crises may have long-run effects, and highlighting hypotheses warranting further investigation.
    Keywords: Second World War, direction of innovation, crisis innovation
    JEL: O30 O38 N42
    Date: 2022–04
  9. By: ASAI, Kentaro; KAMBAYASHI, Ryo
    Abstract: Sometimes, war results in a large gender imbalance in certain cohorts and areas that changes the path of economic development. However, there is ambiguity around this notion because the market economy has a strong restoring force. This study contributes to the existing literature by presenting the Japanese experience during the Second World War. Japan lost approximately 2 million soldiers during 1938-1945. Furthermore, the loss of young males concentrated in certain cohorts of certain geographical areas owing to hometown regiment system. By exploiting the variation of changes in gender balance cohort-by-prefecture, we examined the effect of the loss of young males on the post-war industrial structure. We observed that the reduction in the gender ratio may have led to slower industrialization, although to a limited extent quantitatively.
    Date: 2023–06
  10. By: Eric Rahim (University of Strathclyde)
    Abstract: This paper follows a suggestion made by Piero Sraffa in the late 1920s about the writing of his book that was finally published in 1960 – a suggestion he did not follow. The suggestion consisted in the writing of a history of political economy, starting with the ideas of the French Physiocrats, and its further development by Adam Smith and David Ricardo. This history was intended as an introduction to the 1960 book. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the ‘central propositions’ of the 1960 book, seen as a rigorous theoretical statement of the political economy of these ‘old’ economists.
    Keywords: Sraffa, Physiocrats, Adam Smith, David Ricardo, Karl Marx
    JEL: J12
  11. By: Yacine Boujija; Marie Connolly; Xavier St-Denis
    Abstract: Young people who grow up in a less privileged socioeconomic environment are more likely to remain at the bottom of the income distribution once they reach adulthood. This phenomenon is one of the manifestations of the reproduction of inequalities from one generation to the next, or what is known as the intergenerational transmission of income. Despite the implementation in Quebec of initiatives to promote equality of opportunity, the situation has deteriorated over the course of the late 20th century. We know that access to education is a key factor in social mobility. In this study, the authors look at the question from a different angle, examining the contribution of geographic mobility to the intergenerational transmission of income in Quebec. The study uses data from Statistics Canada's Intergenerational Income Database (IID) to estimate the link between geographic mobility and socioeconomic mobility. Four cohorts of young people are tracked over time: those born between 1967 and 1970, between 1972 and 1975, between 1977 and 1980, and between 1982 and 1985. This represents a sample of almost 1.4 million observations. The authors show that the deterioration of social mobility in Quebec is mainly the result of two phenomena: (1) a deterioration in the socioeconomic status of young people living outside major urban centres at age 16 and having grown up in a family at the bottom of the income distribution, combined with (2) an improvement in the situation of young people from the same regions, but having grown up in a family at the top of the parental income distribution. This study contributes to the knowledge base and suggests that policies supporting geographic mobility could help increase social mobility in Quebec. Les jeunes qui grandissent dans un milieu socioéconomique moins favorisé ont une probabilité plus élevée de rester dans le bas de la distribution des revenus une fois à l’âge adulte. Ce phénomène est une des manifestations de la reproduction des inégalités d’une génération à l’autre, ou ce qu’on appelle la transmission intergénérationnelle du revenu. Malgré la mise en œuvre au Québec d’initiatives pour promouvoir l’égalité des chances, la situation s’est détériorée au cours de la fin du 20e siècle. On sait que l’accès à l’éducation est un facteur clé de mobilité sociale. Dans cette étude, les auteurs abordent la question sous un autre angle et examinent l’apport de la mobilité géographique dans la transmission intergénérationnelle du revenu au Québec. L’étude exploite les données de la Base de données sur la mobilité intergénérationnelle du revenu (BDMIR) de Statistique Canada afin d'estimer le lien entre mobilité géographique et mobilité socioéconomique. Quatre cohortes de jeunes sont suivies à travers le temps : ceux nés entre 1967 et 1970, entre 1972 et 1975, entre 1977 et 1980 et entre 1982 et 1985. Ceci représente un échantillon de près de 1, 4 million d’observations. Les auteurs montrent que la détérioration de la mobilité sociale au Québec découle principalement de deux phénomènes : (1) une détérioration du statut socioéconomique des jeunes résidant hors des grands centres urbains à 16 ans et ayant grandi dans une famille au bas de la distribution de revenu, combinée à (2) une amélioration de la situation des jeunes de ces mêmes régions, mais ayant grandi dans une famille au sommet de la distribution de revenu parental. Cette étude contribue à enrichir les connaissances et suggère que des politiques supportant la mobilité géographique pourraient contribuer à augmenter la mobilité sociale au Québec.
    Keywords: Intergenerational transmission of income, internal migration, rural regions, urban regions, Quebec, inequalities, Transmission intergénérationnelle du revenu, migration interne, régions rurales, régions urbaines, Québec, inégalités
    Date: 2023–06–20
  12. By: David Hirshleifer; Dat Mai; Kuntara Pukthuanthong
    Abstract: A war-related factor model derived from textual analysis of media news reports explains the cross section of expected asset returns. Using a semi-supervised topic model to extract discourse topics from 7, 000, 000 New York Times stories spanning 160 years, the war factor predicts the cross section of returns across test assets derived from both traditional and machine learning construction techniques, and spanning 138 anomalies. Our findings are consistent with assets that are good hedges for war risk receiving lower risk premia, or with assets that are more positively sensitive to war prospects being more overvalued. The return premium on the war factor is incremental to standard effects.
    JEL: G0 G02 G1 G10 G11 G4 G41
    Date: 2023–06
  13. By: von Fintel, Dieter (Stellenbosch University); Links, Calumet (Stellenbosch University); Green, Erik (Department of Economic History, Lund University)
    Abstract: Research on long-term historical inequality has expanded to include previously neglected periods and societies, particularly in the global South. This is partly due to the resurgence of the social tables method in economic history, an approach which uses archival records to reconstruct income and wealth distributions in contexts where micro data is unavailable. This method can cause a downward bias in estimating inequality, but there is limited evidence of this bias in economic history. We collected a new data set of 108 historical social tables spanning over a 1000 years. We found that the compilers consistently made careful methodological choices that took data limitations into account. We found that the inequality estimates are not systematically related to the number of classes chosen or the size of the top class, but that choosing bottom classes that bundle together even small variations in income or wealth can introduce a downward bias to the inequality estimates. This drawback can be overcome by using methodological cohesion to mitigate the problem of limited information about the poorest classes in colonial archives.
    Keywords: Social tables; Gini; inequality; pre-industrial; grouped data
    JEL: D63 N30
    Date: 2023–03–10
  14. By: Jeremy Atack; Robert A. Margo; Paul Rhode
    Abstract: The long-standing view in US economic history is the shift in manufacturing in the nineteenth century from the artisan shop to the mechanized factory led to “labor deskilling.” Craft workers were displaced by mix of semi-skilled operatives, unskilled workers, and a reduced force of mechanics to maintain the powered machines. Investigating the Department of Labor’s 1899 Hand and Machine Labor Study using causal inference statistical techniques, we show the adoption of inanimate power did indeed induce deskilling. While the effects were statistically significant, they accounted for only 7-15 percent of the deskilling observed in the sample. Broadening the scope of our inquiry, we find the increased division of labor as captured by the increase in scale of operations and the ratio of workers to tasks accounts for a larger fraction.
    JEL: J23 N61 O31
    Date: 2023–06
  15. By: Roy, Tirthankar
    Abstract: The Permanent Settlement (1793) was the first major institutional reform introduced by the East India Company state in late-eighteenth century India. Most studies exploring its origin suggest that the idea was a transplant from England or Europe. That hypothesis begs a question. The case for reform had been made in the 1770s. Why did the policy take so long to materialize if it was no more than a passive copy? It did, the paper claims, because an alternative model of state-making exercised appeal, which prioritized information gathering to serve the fiscal state.
    Keywords: property rights; colonialism; Permanent Settlement; zamindar; India
    JEL: N15 N45 N55
    Date: 2023–06
  16. By: Forshaw, Rachel; Ölkers, Tim; Sethi, Ritika; Sovani, Manali
    Abstract: We test the reproducibility and replicability of Dincecco et al. (2022), which reports a positive relationship between pre-colonial interstate warfare and long-run development patterns across India. Overall, we confirm that all of the study's estimates are computationally reproducible by using both the provided replication package in Stata and code written by the present authors in R. We test for and find no evidence of data manipulation in the final datasets. Concerning direct replicability, we consider different ways of measuring distance to conflicts and also alternative proxies for both the dependent variable and variables which capture channels by which the main effects operate. We are able to replicate the magnitude and significance of the estimated coefficient on conflict exposure in most of the tests, noting that while most estimates are substantively in line with the original study, some alternative measures of distance to conflict imply different magnitudes for estimates, and proxy estimates are sensitive to both the time period and type of conflict considered.
    Keywords: institutions, long-run development, path dependence, public goods
    JEL: H11 N45 O11 P48
    Date: 2023
  17. By: Dimant, Eugen; Krieger, Tim; Meierrieks, Daniel
    Abstract: Does U.S. military aid make the United States safer? Or does it have unintended consequences for U.S. security? To answer these questions, we estimate the effect of U.S. military aid on anti-American terrorism for a sample of 174 countries between 1968 and 2018. We find that higher levels of aid especially for military financing and education increase the likelihood of anti-American terrorism in recipient countries. Examining potential transmission channels, we show that more U.S. military aid undermines military capacity and increases corruption and exclusionary policies in recipient countries. Our findings are consistent with the argument that military aid aggravates local grievances, creating anti-American resentment and leading to anti-American terrorism. Indeed, we also provide tentative evidence that military aid lowers public opinion about the United States in recipient countries.
    Keywords: Anti-American Terrorism, Corruption, Instrumental Variable Estimation, State Capacity, U.S. Military Aid
    Date: 2023
  18. By: Diab, Osama
    Abstract: This article explores new approaches to the study of colonial trade relationships between Egypt and Britain in the long 19th century. More specifically, it employs the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis (PSH) to assess whether Egypt’s barter terms of trade (BTT) with Britain has deteriorated or improved during the long 19th century. The article argues that the BTT evolution is key to understanding two central phenomena of the modern capitalist era away from Weberian- and Sombartian-style culturalist interpretations. First is the growing uneven development–known as the Great Divergence–between the 'core' and the 'periphery' of the global economic system, and second is the rise of anti-colonial sentiments and policies in the Global South.
    Date: 2023–06–20
  19. By: Ljubica Nedelkoska (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Shreyas Gadgin Matha; James McNerney (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Andre Assumpcao (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Dario Diodato; Frank Neffke (Center for International Development at Harvard University)
    Abstract: We build a new longitudinal dataset of job tasks and technologies by transforming the U.S. Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT, 1939 -1991) and four books documenting occupational use of tools and technologies in the 1940s, into a database akin to, and comparable with its digital successor, the O*NET (1998 -today). After creating a single occupational classification stretching between 1939 and 2019, we connect all DOT waves and the decennial O*NET databases into a single dataset, and we connect these with the U.S. Decennial Census data at the level of 585 occupational groups. We use the new dataset to study how technology changed the gender pay gap in the United States since the 1940s. We find that computerization had two counteracting effects on the pay gap -it simultaneously reduced it by attracting more women into better-paying occupations, and increased it through higher returns to computer use among men. The first effect closed the pay gap by 3.3 pp, but the second increased it by 5.8 pp, leading to a net widening of the pay gap.
    Keywords: gender gap, occupational tasks, skills
    Date: 2021–12
  20. By: Pablo Celhay; Sebastian Gallegos (Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez)
    Abstract: This paper presents new evidence on educational mobility across three generations in six Latin American countries (LAC). Combining survey information with national census data we build a data set with 50, 000 triads of grandparents-parent-children born between 1890 and 1990. We estimate a five mobility measures, to show that (i) the empirical multi-generational persistence is high in LAC; (ii) it is much larger than what Becker & Tomes (1986) theoretical model predicts, with a bias that is twice as large for LAC compared to developed countries; (iii) Clark’s theory (2014) of high and sticky persistence provides a better approximation for describing mobility across multiple generations in developing countries. We also uncover that while relative measures suggest stagnant mobility across generations, there are significant improvements according to non-linear measures suggested by Asher, Novosad & Rafkin (2022). This result is especially relevant for developing countries such as LAC, where historical educational expansions have especially benefited the lower end of the schooling distribution.
    Keywords: developing countries, Latin America, intergenerational mobility, educational policy, multiple generations, compulsory schooling
    JEL: J62 J12 N36 P36 I24 I28
    Date: 2023–06
  21. By: David Laidler
    Abstract: Peter Howitt is best known for his contributions to growth theory, but his work in short-run economics, which began with his Ph.D thesis and still continues, is important and deserves attention. It lies firmly in the Keynesian macro-disequilibrium tradition of Robert Clower and Axel Leijonhufvud, and for a long time has been overshadowed by New-classical and New-Keynesian orthodoxy. However, the development of agent based modelling and behavioural economics is perhaps giving disequilibrium macroeconomics a new lease on life.
    Keywords: equilibrium, disequilibrium, money, New classical Economics, New Keynesian Economics, Keynes, Lucas, Howitt, Clower, Leijonhufvud, Phelps
    JEL: B22 B59 E12 E13 E31 E32
    Date: 2023–06
  22. By: Michele Bee (Cedeplar/UFMG); Ivan Sternick (Cedeplar/UFMG)
    Abstract: This paper aims to show that the “quantities of labor” on which Smith bases his theory of the real measure of exchange value are not objective quantities that can be established prior to the exchange, but that their value is determined by the proportion established in exchange. Contrary to what is often stated, this means that these quantities of labor are neither physical inputs “embodied” in commodities, nor given prices, nor an absolute “disutility”, but that they come close to what Samuel Pufendorf called “moral quantities”. This means they are prices established through common evaluation and agreement in exchange, taking into account different aspects associated with each labor and work. It is here claimed that the estimation of Smith’s wage-differentials should also be understood in this sense. The non-arbitrary character of this conception of value in exchange is explained through Smith’s understanding that, under conditions of equality and liberty, people are capable of and willing to evaluate each other’s labor impartially, since they usually desire to obtain the deserved esteem of others.
    Keywords: Adam Smith, Samuel Pufendorf, Quantities of Labor, Value, Exchange.
    JEL: B10 B11 B12
    Date: 2023–06
  23. By: Daniel Borbely (University of Dundee); Ross Mckenzie (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)
    Abstract: We investigate the persistent effects of forced migration on sending economies using the postWW2 expulsion of German minorities from Hungary as a natural experiment. We combine historical and contemporary data sources to show that, while towns heavily affected by the expulsions were quite similar to other areas in terms of economic activity and labour market composition before the war, the forced migrations led to lasting reductions in economic activity, and an increasing reliance on agricultural labour. We further show long-term negative correlations between forced migration and local trust levels, suggesting that the expulsion of Germans also affected the local social fabric. Our analysis reveals that forced migration can cause lasting regional inequalities in sending economies.
    Keywords: forced migration, economic development, minorities, trust, persistence, regional inequality
    JEL: N34 N94 R11 O12 O15
    Date: 2021–11
  24. By: Markus K. Brunnermeier; Sergio A. Correia; Stephan Luck; Emil Verner; Tom Zimmermann
    Abstract: This paper studies how a large increase in the price level is transmitted to the real economy through firm balance sheets. Using newly digitized macro- and micro-level data from the German inflation of 1919-1923, we show that inflation led to a large reduction in real debt burdens and bankruptcies. Firms with higher nominal liabilities at the onset of inflation experienced a larger decline in interest expenses, a relative increase in their equity values, and higher employment during the inflation. The results are consistent with real effects of a debt-inflation channel that operates even when prices and wages are flexible.
    JEL: E31 G0 G20 G30 N2
    Date: 2023–06
  25. By: Kohnert, Dirk
    Abstract: For decades, the history of Sudan, Africa's third largest country with around 46 million inhabitants, has been marked by violent clashes between the northern, Muslim and Arab military elites of the capital Khartoum at the expense of the civilian population. Since Sudan gained independence in 1956, there have been 16 attempted coups, six of which were successful. That was more than in any other country on a continent that has itself seen more coups than any other region in the world. Two civil wars between the government in Khartoum and the southern regions claimed around 1.5 million victims. In addition, the ongoing conflict in the western Darfur region has killed more than 200, 000 people and displaced two million people. In these conflicts, borders mean little. Control of resources and subjects is the primary objective, and forces arising in the borderlands seek revenge on the despised metropolitan elites. Sudan's geopolitical importance in a volatile region bordering the Red Sea, the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, as well as its agricultural prosperity, attracted regional and global actors and hampered the successful transition to civilian-led government and sustainable development. In addition to Great Britain, the former colonial power, Russia, the USA, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other neighbouring countries were fighting for influence in Sudan, including Ethiopia, Chad and South Sudan. They, too, were affected by political unrest and conflict and suffered under the burden of Sudanese refugees fleeing the fighting to neighbouring countries. The British colonial rulers had already used existing differences to divide the population according to ethnic and regional affiliations, a practice that survives to this day. Militia activism deepened divisions among rebel supporters. This divide-and-conquer policy corresponded to a well-established tactic used by African governments in ethnic civil wars, often exploiting the militias to encourage and facilitate ethnic migration by integrating the militias into the national army. Transnational, well-entrenched criminal networks involved in drug-, arms- and human trafficking also stood ready to take advantage of the chaos. This made Sudan one of the most fragile countries in the world. Sudan's collapse would not only shake its neighbours, but could also upset several other African countries, including fragile states in the Sahel, and East and North Africa. The side effects of such an incalculable conflict zone and the resulting chaos would also affect Western Europe, which is already suffering from the influx of refugees from Syria and other war zones in the Middle East and Africa.
    Keywords: Soudan; conflit soudanais de 2023; Soudan du Sud; Afrique subsaharienne; trafic d'armes; trafic de drogue; famine; réfugiés; migration; développement durable; démocratisation; post-colonialisme; secteur informel; commerce international; nationalisme; Russie; Grande-Bretagne; Pakistan; APD; ONG; études africaines;
    JEL: E26 F22 F24 F35 F51 F52 F54 F63 H12 H27 H56 H77 H84 I31 J46 J61 L31 N17 N37 N47 N97 O17 O55 Z13
    Date: 2023–06–09
  26. By: Samuel Bazzi; Andreas Ferrara; Martin Fiszbein; Thomas P. Pearson; Patrick A. Testa
    Abstract: This paper shows how white migration out of the postbellum South diffused and entrenched Confederate culture across the United States at a critical juncture of westward expansion and postwar reconciliation. These migrants laid the groundwork for Confederate symbols and racial norms to become pervasive nationally in the early 20th century. Occupying positions of authority, former slaveholders played an outsized role in this process. Beyond memorializing the Confederacy, migrants exacerbated racial violence, boosted novel forms of exclusion, and compounded Black disadvantage outside the South. Moving West, former Confederates had larger effects in frontier communities lacking established culture and institutions. Over time, they continued to transmit norms to their children and non-Southern neighbors. The diaspora legacy persists over the long run, shaping racial inequities in labor, housing, and policing. Together, our findings offer a new perspective on migration, elite influence, and the interplay between culture and institutions in the nation-building process.
    JEL: D72 J15 J18 N31 N32 P16
    Date: 2023–06
  27. By: Theo Renou (UNISTRA FSEG - Université de Strasbourg - Faculté des sciences économiques et de gestion - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg); René Carrraz (UTokyo - The University of Tokyo); Thierry Burger-Helmchen (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: Japanese firms have historically followed a country-specific model of corporate governance. Yet, Japan has had to adapt its corporate model over the last 30 years, along with the transformation of distinctive characteristics of Japanese capitalism in the same period. We review the historical evolution of Japanese corporate governance over the last three decades with a specific emphasis on the changes in the capital structure of major companies and the efforts to correct ineffective board of directors monitoring. By doing this, we investigate to what extent specific Japanese corporate governance features may explain the nation's economic situation over this period. Thereby, we try to clarify the influences that have presided over recent corporate governance reforms in Japan despite the existence of managerial failures and corporate scandals. This paper places itself into the debate over the diversity of capitalism as it portrays the specificities, differences, and converging trends of Japanese corporate governance practices.
    Keywords: Governance, Evolution, Japan, History, Corporate scandals
    Date: 2023–05–29
  28. By: Dorothy Kronick; Francisco Rodr\'iguez
    Abstract: Venezuela has suffered three economic catastrophes since independence: one each in the nineteenth, twentieth, and twenty-first centuries. Prominent explanations for this trilogy point to the interaction of class conflict and resource dependence. We turn attention to intra-class conflict, arguing that the most destructive policy choices stemmed not from the rich defending themselves against the masses but rather from pitched battles among elites. Others posit that Venezuelan political institutions failed to sustain growth because they were insufficiently inclusive; we suggest in addition that they inadequately mediated intra-elite conflict.
    Date: 2023–05
  29. By: Bäckström, Peter (Department of Economics, Umeå University); Hanes, Niklas (Department of Economics, Umeå University)
    Abstract: We study the effect of peacekeeping on post-deployment earnings for military veterans. Using Swedish administrative data, we follow a sample of more than 11, 000 veterans who were deployed for the first time during the period 1993-2010 for up to nine years after returning home. To deal with selection bias, we use difference-in-differences propensity score matching based on a rich set of covariates, including measures of individual ability, health and pre-deployment labour market attachment. We find that, overall, veterans’ post-deployment earnings are largely unaffected by their service. Even though Swedish veterans in the studied period tend to outperform their birthcohort peers who did not serve, we show that this advantage in earnings disappears once we adjust for non-random selection into service.
    Keywords: Military veterans; peacekeeping; earnings
    JEL: H56 J01 J20 J45
    Date: 2023–06–14
  30. By: Diego Battiston (University of Edinburgh and CEP); Stephan Maurer (University of Konstanz and CEP); Andrei Potlogea (University of Edinburgh); Jose V. Rodriguez Mora (University of Konstanz and CEP)
    Abstract: We use linked historical US censuses to study the empirical relationship between inequality and intergenerational mobility. We first confirm that the “Great Gatsby Curve” already existed in the early 20th century. We then study a “dynamic” version of the curve that relates changes in equality to changes in intergenerational mobility. Interestingly, we find that this relationship varies over two-decade periods for income, but remains consistent for education. Finally, we propose novel unitless measures of intergenerational mobility and inequality to show that the “Great Gatsby Curve” result re-emerges over the long run, for the period 1920 to 2011.
    Keywords: Intergenerational Mobility, Inequality, Great Gatsby Curve
    JEL: J62 N12 N52 R11
    Date: 2023–06–19
  31. By: Martha J. Bailey; Thomas E. Helgerman; Bryan A. Stuart
    Abstract: In the 1960s, two landmark statutes—the Equal Pay and Civil Rights Acts—targeted the long-standing practice of employment discrimination against U.S. women. For the next 15 years, the gender gap in median earnings among full-time, full-year workers changed little, leading many scholars and advocates to conclude the legislation was ineffectual. This paper uses two different research designs to show that women’s relative wages grew rapidly in the aftermath of this legislation. The data show little evidence of short-term changes in women’s employment, but some results suggest that firms reduced their hiring and promotion of women in the medium term.
    JEL: J16 J71 N32
    Date: 2023–06
  32. By: Tatsuki Inoue amd Erika Igarashi
    Abstract: Fertility changes after wars and conflicts have been observed worldwide. This study examines whether regional war damage affects postwar fertility even in areas that were not directly affected but were close to the damaged areas. In order to accomplish this, we exploit the air-raid experience in Japan during World War II. Using the municipality-level fertility data in the Kinki region in 1935 and 1947 and the data on damages from air raids in cities, we find the effects of bombing on postwar fertility in towns and villages within 15 kilometers, despite no direct damages. However, the direction of the indirect effects is mixed. The estimation results suggest that severe air raids in neighboring cities increased fertility, whereas minor air raids decreased it. Moreover, the results of the quasi-experimental approach indicate that intense fears of air raids increased the fertility rate in the postwar period. Our study contributes to the literature on fertility changes in the postwar period, providing new insights into the complex relationship between war damage and fertility.
    Date: 2023–06
  33. By: Haddad, Joanne; Kattan, Lamis; Wochner, Timo
    Abstract: Williams (2022) ties the political participation of Blacks to historical lynchings that occurred in the United States. Her findings document lower Black voter registration rates in southern counties with greater number of historical lynchings. We show that this effect is driven by four outlier counties with relatively high Black lynching rates. Excluding these counties and correcting the errors in voter registration rates rule out the effect size reported by Williams (2022), which now becomes close to zero and statistically insignificant. We also show that the main results are highly sensitive to the way lynching and voter registration rates are measured.
    JEL: D72 J15 N31 N32 N41 N42 Z13
    Date: 2023

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