nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2023‒06‒12
29 papers chosen by

  1. Antitrust and (Foreign) Innovation: Evidence from the Xerox Case By Robin Mamrak
  2. Inflation! The Battle Between Creditors and Workers By Fix, Blair
  3. War Discourse and Disaster Premia: 160 Years of Evidence from Stock and Bond Markets By David Hirshleifer; Dat Y. Mai; Kuntara Pukthuanthong
  4. Inventing Conditionality, Exploring Its Politics (1946-1958) By Jérôme Sgard
  5. How Did New York City’s Economy Weather the Pandemic? By Jason Bram
  6. “Monopolistic” vs. “Cooperative” State in the Institutional and Economic Modelling of Antonio De Viti De Marco By Luca Tedesco; Roberto Ricciuti
  7. J’Accuse! Antisemitism and Financial Markets in the Time of the Dreyfus Affair By Quoc-Anh Do; Roberto Galbiati; Benjamin Marx; Miguel A. Ortiz Serrano
  8. The Creation and Diffusion of Knowledge: Evidence from the Jet Age By Stefan Pauly; Fernando Stipanicic
  9. A Review of Longevity Validations up to May 2023 By Gibbs, Philip; Zak, Nikolay
  10. Historical trend of homophily: U-shaped or not U-shaped? Or, how would you set a criterion to decide which criterion is better to choose a criterion? By Anna Naszodi
  11. Compte rendu de "The Economic Weapon. The Rise of Sanctions as a Tool of Modern War" By Jérôme Sgard
  12. Revisión sistemática de la literatura del desarrollo de América Latina en el periodo 2010-2021 By Pedro Alfonso de la Puente Sierra; Juan José Berdugo Cepeda; María José Pérez Pacheco
  13. Los primeros 100 años de Henry Kissinger By Juan Carlos de Pablo
  14. American utopias in the 19th century: Religious versus ideological farms in the west of the United States By Antonio Sánchez‐bayón; Estrella Trincado-Aznar; Francisco J Sastre
  15. Book Review of Meandering Sobriety: A Refreshing Journey By Jin, Ruining
  16. Financial Fragility without Banks By Stein Berre; Asani Sarkar
  17. Standing on the Shoulders of Giants or Science? – Lessons from Ordoliberalism By Lars P. Feld; Ekkehard A. Köhler
  18. Remarks to Delta Sigma Theta: At the “110 Years of Deltas Embracing the Past while Shaping the Future” event, Norfolk, Virginia January 21st 2023 By Lisa D. Cook
  19. Banks Runs and Information By Haelim Anderson; Adam Copeland
  20. Toward an economic theory of populism: Uncertainty, Information, and Public Interest in Downs’s Political Economy By Alexandre Chirat; Cyril Hédoin
  21. The Historical Importance of Growth and Inflation in Reducing High UK Public Debt Ratios By Brooks, D.; Needham, D.
  22. Global Commodity Markets and Sovereign Risk across 150 Years By Angélica Domínguez-Cardoza; Adelina Garamow; Josefin Meyer
  23. Theoretical Foundations of the Dependent Monetary Regimes By Nikolay Nenovsky
  24. Theodore Roosevelt, the Election of 1912, and the Founding of the Federal Reserve By Matthew Jaremski; David C. Wheelock
  25. British Colonialism and Women Empowerment in India By Nandwani, Bharti; Roychowdhury, Punarjit
  26. The relationship between inflation and unemployment in Sub-Saharan Africa By Mah Philippe Valdez Dimitri; Louis Henri Ngah Ntiga
  27. Long-Run Movements in Real Exchange Rates: 1264 to 2020 By Kellard, Neil; Madsen, Jakob B; Snaith, Stuart
  28. Wealth of Two Nations: The U.S. Racial Wealth Gap, 1860-2020 By Ellora Derenoncourt; Chi Hyun Kim; Moritz Kuhn; Moritz Schularick
  29. Insights from Newly Digitized Banking Data, 1867-1904 By Sergio A. Correia; Stephan Luck

  1. By: Robin Mamrak (LMU Munich)
    Abstract: How does antitrust enforcement against patent-based monopolies affect innovation? I address this question by empirically studying the US antitrust case against Xerox, the monopolist in the market for plain-paper copiers. In 1975, Xerox was ordered to license all its copier-technology patents in the US and abroad. I show that this promoted innovation by other firms in the copier industry, measured by a disproportionate increase in patenting in technologies where Xerox patents became available for licensing. This positive effect is driven by increased innovation by Japanese competitors. They started developing smaller desktop copiers and their innovation became more diverse.
    Keywords: antitrust; innovation; patents; compulsory licensing; Japan; Xerox;
    JEL: O30 O34 L41 K21
    Date: 2023–05–12
  2. By: Fix, Blair
    Abstract: I’ve been writing about inflation for the better part of three months. It’s been exhausting. Most of my time has been spent debunking misconceptions promoted by mainstream economists. Fortunately, I’m ready to move on. What’s interesting about inflation is not the fact that prices rise. What matters is that prices rise at different rates. In other words, inflation creates winners and losers — it redistributes income. In this post, I’ll dive into the redistribution dynamics between wage workers and creditors. When inflation rears its head, both groups try to bolster their income. But they rarely have equal success. Looking at over two centuries of US price history, I find (perhaps surprisingly) that inflation tended to benefit workers at the expense of creditors. Since the 1970s, however, the reverse has been true; inflation has systematically benefited creditors at the expense of workers. So what changed? Two things. First, the US labor movement was crushed. Second (and far less discussed), US policy makers adopted a new way to ‘fight’ rising prices. When inflation reared its head, central banks attempted to quell it by aggressively hiking interest rates. Today, it’s received wisdom that this policy ‘works’. Of course, the policy does work — but not for its stated goal. Never mind ‘fighting inflation’. When you raise interest rates, you give creditors a raise. Framed in this light, it’s unsurprising that inflation has recently become a boon for US creditors. Backed by monetarist ideology, the government is now dedicated to preserving the return on credit. When it comes to class struggle, there’s nothing like having the sledgehammer of the state to back you up. With credit returns in mind, here’s the road ahead. Before diving into the dynamics of class struggle, I’ll take a quick look at the language used to describe rising prices. Next, I’ll quantify the price struggle between creditors and workers. Finally, I’ll measure how this struggle has changed over time, and how it relates to the ideological currents of the period.
    Keywords: creditors, inflation, interest rates, inflation, wages
    JEL: P00 P1 E3 E31 D3 J3 D74 E5
    Date: 2023
  3. By: David Hirshleifer; Dat Y. Mai; Kuntara Pukthuanthong
    Abstract: Using a semi-supervised topic model on 7, 000, 000 New York Times articles spanning 160 years, we test whether topics of media discourse predict future stock and bond market returns to test rational and behavioral hypotheses about market valuation of disaster risk. Focusing on media discourse addresses the challenge of sample size even when major disasters are rare. Our methodology avoids look-ahead bias and addresses semantic shifts. War discourse positively predicts market returns, with an out-of-sample R2 of 1.35%, and negatively predicts returns on short-term government and investment-grade corporate bonds. The predictive power of war discourse increases in more recent time periods.
    JEL: G0 G00 G01 G02 G1 G10 G11 G13 G4 G41
    Date: 2023–05
  4. By: Jérôme Sgard (CERI - Centre de recherches internationales (Sciences Po, CNRS) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The conflict between Keynes and White, in the run-up to the 1944 Bretton Woods conference, left the IMF with a substantial capital, though without a rule-book on how to lend. The literature then insists on the introduction of the Stand-By Arrangement (1953), which remains till today the Fund's workhorse lending vehicle. Yet, the literature ignores the second step of the re-invention: policy conditionality, hence the capacity for the IMF to suspend lending when countries diverge from their pre-agreed economic objectives. This book chapter analyzes this brake-through, in the case of a policy loans to Paraguay and Bolivia, in 1956-1958. It then shows how this innovation triggered within a few years: 1/ a redefinition of the IMF as a crisis manager, in an entirely novel relation to borrowing countries; 2/ a full realignment of the relationship between the staff, the management and the key member-states, primarily the US; 3/ the adoption of a new economic framework, known as the monetary approach to the balance of payment; 4/ in parallel, the exploration of the legal and political consequences of defining the Stand-By as a non-contractual transaction, adequate to a relation to self-standing sovereign states.
    Keywords: IMF, conditionality, debt crisis
    Date: 2023
  5. By: Jason Bram
    Abstract: When COVID-19 first struck the U.S. in early 2020, New York City was the epicenter of the pandemic. By early April, there was an unthinkable scale of suffering, with massive hospitalizations and roughly 800 fatalities per day, accounting for nearly half of the nationwide total. The rapid spread was facilitated by the city’s extraordinarily high population density and widespread use of mass transit. What followed was a quick and massive shutdown of restaurants, retail stores, personal services, offices, and more. And the shutdowns, of course, led to widespread job losses. Between February and May, one out of five jobs in the city vanished; in the restaurant industry, 70 percent of jobs were lost. Although the pandemic didn’t go away, the city’s economy has recovered steadily, aside from a brief but sharp setback in late 2020. By early 2023, New York had finally reversed just about all of the total job loss. In this post, we look at the contours of the city’s recovery as a possible guide to where we go from here.
    Keywords: New York City; post-pandemic; pandemic
    JEL: R10
    Date: 2023–04–13
  6. By: Luca Tedesco (University Roma Tre); Roberto Ricciuti (Department of Economics (University of Verona))
    Abstract: Antonio de Viti de Marco was one of the most representative figures of the Italian school of public finance and is considered an intellectual father of the Public Choice school. In this paper we analyze the relationships between his theories and those of Herbert Spencer, explicitly cited by de Viti de Marco in his writings. We also explore to what extent the theory fueled the political and journalistic campaigns in which he was engaged, seeking to influence the economic and financial policy of the government. De Viti de Marco and his associates proposed a way out of the fin de siècle crisis based on a new fiscal pact and free trade, which in turn was grounded on a view of the British model that was already in crisis in its homeland. Unsurprisingly, this route was not chosen by the government, which opted for repression.
    Keywords: De Viti de Marco, liberal Italy, public finance, taxation, free trade, protectionism, Italian economic thought.
    JEL: B13 B31 D72 D78 H11
    Date: 2023–05
  7. By: Quoc-Anh Do (Monash University, Department of Economics and CEPR); Roberto Galbiati (CNRS-Sciences Po (Sciences Economiques Sciences Po) and CEPR); Benjamin Marx (Boston University and CEPR); Miguel A. Ortiz Serrano (CUNEF University in Madrid)
    Abstract: We study the stock market performance of firms with Jewish board members during the “Dreyfus Affair” in 19th century France. In a context of widespread latent antisemitism, initial accusations made against the Jewish officer Alfred Dreyfus led to short-lived abnormal negative returns for Jewish connected firms. However, investors betting on these firms earned higher raw and risk-adjusted returns during the period corresponding to Dreyfus’ rehabilitation, starting with the publication of the famous op-ed J’Accuse! in 1898. Our conceptual framework illustrates how diminishing antisemitic biases among investors might plausibly explain these differential returns. Our paper provides novel insights on how societal shifts in discriminatory attitudes affect financial markets.
    Keywords: Antisemitism, Financial Markets, Discrimination
    JEL: J15 J71 N23 G14 G41
    Date: 2023–05
  8. By: Stefan Pauly (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Fernando Stipanicic (UC Berkeley - University of California [Berkeley] - UC - University of California)
    Abstract: Click here for the latest version This paper provides new causal evidence of the impact of air travel time on the creation and diffusion of knowledge. We exploit the beginning of the Jet Age as a quasi-natural experiment. We digitize airlines' historical flight schedules and construct a novel data set of the flight network in the United States. Between 1951 and 1966, travel time between locations more than 2, 000 km apart decreased on average by 41%. The reduction in travel time explains 33% of the increase in knowledge diffusion as measured by patent citations. The increase in knowledge diffusion further caused an increase in the creation of new knowledge. The results provide evidence that jet airplanes led to innovation convergence across locations and contributed to the shift in innovation activity towards the South and the West of the United States.
    Date: 2022–10–21
  9. By: Gibbs, Philip; Zak, Nikolay
    Abstract: Background: The ages of the oldest humans are important data for scientific studies in gerontology, medicine and demographics. Scientists often reference specific cases such as Jeanne Calment, or resources such as the International Database on Longevity. However, numerous inherent dangers and pitfalls have dogged the history of human longevity record keeping. Many people who were believed to be the oldest person in their day turned out to be younger than claimed. This could affect scientific conclusions based on their assumed longevity. In this work we review longevity validations at the top of the official lists of the world’s oldest ever men and women. We aim to outline a stronger “cast-iron” standard for the purposes of future scientific studies of extreme longevity. Results: To inform the higher standard, we have examined individual cases of validation, including those that have been withdrawn or disputed. We highlight their weaknesses and show how deeper investigation could help validate similar claims in the future. We also consider the use of DNA testing to verify the identity of supercentenarians. A self-use questionnaire is offered to validators to help further improve consistency and completeness of their reporting. In a few cases, such as the lives of Sarah Knauss, Christian Mortensen and Israel Kristal we have found new evidence that improves confidence in their validation, but for others our search casts serious doubt on authenticity, or leaves questions over whether the standard of validation is good enough. Having previously disputed the longevity of Jeanne Calment, we now add Nabi Tajima from Japan and Johnson Parks from the U.S. to those who should be invalidated, and we question whether birth records for Japanese supercentenarians can be considered reliable. We also challenge the validation of several U.S cases which were based on unreliable census data in the SSA Kestenbaum study. Conclusions: Correct assessment of the chronological age is a necessary step for biologists studying the determinants of exceptional longevity. We hope that our findings could be used to improve the quality of age validations. They may also influence demographers' conclusions about the future of life expectancy
    Date: 2023–05–08
  10. By: Anna Naszodi
    Abstract: Measuring the extent to which educational marital homophily differs in two consecutive generations is challenging when the educational distributions of marriageable men and women are also generation-specific. We propose a set of criteria that indicators may have to satisfy to be considered as suitable measures of homophily. One of our analytical criteria is on the robustness to the number of educational categories. Another analytical criterion defined by us is on the association between intergenerational mobility and homophily. A third criterion is empirical and concerns the identified historical trend of homophily, a comprehensive aspect of inequality, in the US between 1960 and 2015. While the ordinal Liu--Lu-indicator and the cardinal indicator constructed with the Naszodi--Mendonca method satisfy all three criteria, most indices commonly applied in the literature do not. Our analysis sheds light on the link between the violation of certain criteria and the sensitivity of the historical trend of homophily obtained in the empirical assortative mating literature.
    Date: 2023–04
  11. By: Jérôme Sgard (CERI - Centre de recherches internationales (Sciences Po, CNRS) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Compte rendu de l'ouvrage de Nicholas Mulder, "The Economic Weapon. The Rise of Sanctions as a Tool of Modern War", New Heaven, Londres, Yale University Press, 2022. xiv-434 pages.
    Keywords: sanctions économiques, entre-deux-guerres, ordre international
    Date: 2023
  12. By: Pedro Alfonso de la Puente Sierra; Juan José Berdugo Cepeda; María José Pérez Pacheco
    Abstract: RESUMEN El propósito de esta revisión sistemática es identificar y describir el estado de la literatura del desarrollo en América Latina en espanol e inglés desde 2010. Para esto, realizamos una revisión topográfica de 44 artículos disponibles en los índices bibliográficos más importantes de América Latina, publicados en revistas de diversas disciplinas. Nuestro análisis se enfocó en analizar la naturaleza y la composición de la literatura, y encontró una gran proporción de artículos provenientes de revistas de México y Colombia, así como especializadas en la disciplina económica. Los artículos revisados más relevantes muestran diversidad metodológica y temática, con especial atención al problema del crecimiento en el desarrollo latinoamericano. Una limitación importante de esta revisión es la exclusión de artículos publicados en portugués y de literatura no indexada (como tesis y disertaciones). Esto conduce a diversas recomendaciones para revisiones futuras sobre la literatura del desarrollo producida en América Latina. Palabras clave: revisión de literatura, desarrollo económico, América Latina. ABSTRACT The purpose of this systematic review is to identify and describe the state of development literature published in Latin America, in Spanish and English, since 2010. For this, we carried out a topographic review of 44 articles available in the most important bibliographic indexes of Latin America, published in journals of diverse disciplines. Our analysis focused on analyzing the nature and composition of literature, finding a large proportion of articles coming from Mexico and Colombia, as well as specialized in the economic discipline. The most relevant articles reviewed show methodological and thematic diversity, with special attention to the problem of growth in Latin American development. An important limitation of this review is the exclusion of articles published in Portuguese, as well as non-indexed literature (such as theses and dissertations). This leads to various recommendations for future reviews of the development literature produced in Latin America. Keywords: literature review, economic development, Latin America
    Date: 2022–04–08
  13. By: Juan Carlos de Pablo
    Abstract: Presento un compacto de la vida y la trayectoria de Herny Kissinger antes de sintetizar y reflexionar sobre su obra.
    Date: 2023–05
  14. By: Antonio Sánchez‐bayón (URJC - Universidad Rey Juan Carlos [Madrid]); Estrella Trincado-Aznar (UCM - Universidad Complutense de Madrid = Complutense University of Madrid [Madrid]); Francisco J Sastre (ESIC Business & Marketing School)
    Abstract: Contribution: This review offers a descriptive and explanatory study on the colonisation of the US West, under the hermeneutical turn from heterodox economic approaches, to deal with some current contradictions and anachronism in the mainstream view. Also, there is a systematisation of the American utopias, divided into religious and ideological experiments, with a comparison.
    Keywords: the United States of America (USA) religion & economics anarcho-capitalism Austrian School of Economics (Austrian Economics) new institutional approach colonisation communitarian farms utopias, the United States of America (USA), religion & economics, anarcho-capitalism, Austrian School of Economics (Austrian Economics), new institutional approach, colonisation, communitarian farms, utopias
    Date: 2023–01–24
  15. By: Jin, Ruining
    Abstract: In our fast-paced world, it is common to feel overwhelmed by the chaos of the outside world and yearn for moments of sobriety. “Meandering Sobriety” by Quan-Hoang Vuong can provide readers with those moments through a collection of humorous and thought-provoking short stories. The book was ranked 1st in Amazon Best Sellers of Philosophy books during 21-24 April.
    Date: 2023–04–26
  16. By: Stein Berre; Asani Sarkar
    Abstract: Proponents of narrow banking have argued that lender of last resort policies by central banks, along with deposit insurance and other government interventions in the money markets, are the primary causes of financial instability. However, as we show in this post, non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) triggered a financial crisis in 1772 even though the financial system at that time had few banks and deposits were not insured. NBFIs profited from funding risky, longer-dated assets using cheap short-term wholesale funding and, when they eventually failed, authorities felt compelled to rescue the financial system.
    Keywords: nonbank financial institutions; nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs); crisis of 1772; financial intermediation; economic history
    JEL: G01 G2 N00
    Date: 2023–04–17
  17. By: Lars P. Feld; Ekkehard A. Köhler
    Abstract: James Buchanan would have celebrated his 100th birthday in 2019. This serves as an inspiration to look at the future of public choice and the question of how much normativity public choice can bear. In our analysis we draw parallels between public choice and German ordoliberalism (and its source in the Freiburg School of Economics). We argue that the reception of ordoliberalism exemplifies easy-to-grasp pitfalls that should be taken seriously. We anchor the future agenda of public choice in a solid individualist perspective. Similar to ordoliberalism, public choice will have to clarify its relation to normative economics. The effects of rules and institutions and their working properties should be thoroughly analyzed empirically. The role of ideas is important for the normative foundation of both public choice/ constitutional economics and ordoliberalism, and is rooted in normative individualism. It provides a benchmark by which rules and institutions can be judged as favorable.
    Keywords: public choice, methodology, James Buchanan, normativity, individualism
    JEL: B13 B26 B31 D78 E61 E63
    Date: 2023
  18. By: Lisa D. Cook
    Date: 2023–01–21
  19. By: Haelim Anderson; Adam Copeland
    Abstract: The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank (SB) has raised questions about the fragility of the banking system. One striking aspect of these bank failures is how the runs that preceded them reflect risks and trade-offs that bankers and regulators have grappled with for many years. In this post, we highlight how these banks, with their concentrated and uninsured deposit bases, look quite similar to the small rural banks of the 1930s, before the creation of deposit insurance. We argue that, as with those small banks in the early 1930s, managing the information around SVB and SB’s balance sheets is of first-order importance.
    Keywords: bank runs; information management; bank crises; banking crisis
    JEL: G21 G01
    Date: 2023–05–12
  20. By: Alexandre Chirat; Cyril Hédoin
    Abstract: In this paper, we claim that Downs’s theory of democracy provides a framework to build an economic and positive theory of populism. Our purpose in this paper is threefold. First, we highlight systematically overlooked aspects of Downs’s work. In particular, we demonstrate that Downs is a thinker of political polarization and that his focus on uncertainty is relevant to build an economic theory of populism. Second, we take the issue of populism as an opportunity to test the explanatory power of Downs’s political economy. Third, our reconstruction of Downs’s political economy enables a comparative analysis with the theoretical political science literature on populism to achieve a wide reflexive equilibrium on the understanding of both the nature and the causes of populism. In accordance with such a method, we conclude that populism is, in essence, a political force in a democracy, always present in a latent state, and rationally promoted by political platforms when the minimum consensus required for democratic stability is in crisis. That is why populism is likely to regenerate as much as to sound the death knell of a democratic political system.
    Keywords: Democracy - Populism - Rationality - Public interest - Information
    JEL: P00 B20 H00 D02
    Date: 2023
  21. By: Brooks, D.; Needham, D.
    Abstract: This paper employs an extended accounting framework to estimate the role of real GDP growth and inflation in reducing the UK public debt to GDP ratio following the Napoleonic Wars and the two World Wars. Traditional debt accounting methods do not quantify the impact of growth on the budget balance and therefore underestimate the importance of growth. The extended accounting framework captures the impact of growth on the budget balance. Applying the extended approach to the UK shows that growth matters more than previously acknowledged in reducing the historical public debt ratio, especially following the Second World War. Inflation following the Second World War had a sizable but lesser impact on the debt ratio compared to real growth.
    Date: 2023–05–23
  22. By: Angélica Domínguez-Cardoza; Adelina Garamow; Josefin Meyer
    Abstract: How do commodity price movements affect sovereign default risk over the long-run? Using a novel dataset covering 41 countries and 42 raw commodities, we take a comprehensive long-run view to shed light on this so far understudied relationship between commodity risk and sovereign risk across 150 years. We create a novel country-specific commodity price index that allows us to take advantage of countries’ variation in their commodity export compositions. Our results are twofold: first, commodity price fluctuations show a persistent association with sovereign borrowing costs for countries that are commodity export dependent across the last one and a half centuries. Second, historically this relationship was driven by agricultural price movements; today it is driven by mineral and energy price movements.
    Keywords: Sovereign Risk, commodity prices
    JEL: E44 F41 F34 H63 G12
    Date: 2022
  23. By: Nikolay Nenovsky (LEFMI - Laboratoire d’Économie, Finance, Management et Innovation - UR UPJV 4286 - UPJV - Université de Picardie Jules Verne)
    Abstract: The purpose of the present article is to present a comprehensive framework to analyse main characteristics and institutional forms of the dependent monetary regimes. A country's monetary regime is an extension of its geopolitical and geo-economic place in the international system. The dynamic monetary dependence/independence of a particular country is a direct continuation of, as well as ‘serving', the (geo)political and economic dependence/independence of that country. That dependence does not mean that small countries do not benefit from this type of monetary and political regimes; on the contrary – in most cases it is the most appropriate, so to speak, "optimal" form which, if skilfullymanaged, minimises losses under a given external structural constraint. As a rule, in dependent countries, external sources of money supply dominate domestic sources. Peripheral and dependent countries cannot borrow on international markets in their own national currencies. They borrow in major world currencies and become vulnerable to currency (exchange rate) risk. The inflow of external capital, in turn, requires a corresponding stable institutional and political environment. Therefore, the external equilibrium (external stability), i.e., the state of the balance of payments and especially its financial (capital) account, as well as the dynamics of the exchange rate, become central parameters for the development of the peripheral countries. It is interesting to add that the imposition of a dependent regime in small and peripheral countries is accompanied by the imposition and dissemination of economic views, theories and ideas ("economic narrative"), which legitimise this new monetary regime and prepare the imposition of a certain economic development model.
    Keywords: monetary system, monetary regime, dependent monetary regimes, monetary history
    Date: 2022–12–01
  24. By: Matthew Jaremski; David C. Wheelock
    Abstract: This paper examines how the election of 1912 changed the makeup of Congress and led to the Federal Reserve Act. The decision of Theodore Roosevelt and other Progressives to run as third-party candidates split the Republican Party and enabled Democrats to capture the White House and Congress. We show that the election produced a less polarized Congress and that new members were more likely to support the Act. Absent the Republican split, Republicans would likely have held the White House and Congress, and enactment of legislation to establish a central bank would have been unlikely or certainly quite different.
    Keywords: Federal Reserve Act; Progressive Party; central bank; Aldrich plan
    JEL: N42 G28 P43
    Date: 2023–04
  25. By: Nandwani, Bharti; Roychowdhury, Punarjit
    Abstract: This paper examines the long-term link between British colonialism and women empowerment in India. We compare women's contemporary economic outcomes across areas that were under direct British colonial rule with areas that were under indirect colonial rule. Controlling for selective annexation using a specific policy, we find that women who live in areas that were under direct British rule, compared to their counterparts, are better off in terms of almost all measures of women empowerment including employment, within-household decision-making, mobility, etc. We also document positive impacts of British colonialism on several drivers of women empowerment including education, fertility, marital age, gender norms, etc. While our study of the underlying transmission channels is challenged by data limitations, we argue that legal and institutional changes brought in by the British in favor of women and the West-inspired social reformation movement of the 19th century may be relevant to explaining this long-term link.
    Keywords: Colonialism, Gender Inequality, India, Intimate Partner Violence, Women Empowerment
    JEL: J12 J16 N35 O12
    Date: 2023
  26. By: Mah Philippe Valdez Dimitri (CIRCE - Centre Interdisciplinaire de Recherches Centre-Européennes - EUR'ORBEM - Cultures et sociétés d’Europe orientale, balkanique et médiane - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Louis Henri Ngah Ntiga (CIRCE - Centre Interdisciplinaire de Recherches Centre-Européennes - EUR'ORBEM - Cultures et sociétés d’Europe orientale, balkanique et médiane - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The notions of unemployment and inflation remain the main concerns of public and monetary authorities in the sense that they represent the main lever of economic policy in terms of arbitrage. The existing relationship between these variables is old, but the paternity of this study goes to Phillips (1958) who managed to explain an inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation in Great Britain (1861-1957). The present study aims to verify this theory for subSaharan African countries. The estimation of the model confirms this theory. Thus, it would be wise to pursue "controlled" contractionary policies to promote employment. Contractionist" policies to promote employment in the region would be appropriate. However, this economic policy needs to take into account the quality of institutions.
    Abstract: Les notions chômage et inflation demeurent les principales préoccupations des autorités publiques et monétaires en ce sens qu'elles représentent le principal levier de la politique économique en matière d'arbitrage. La relation existante entre ces variables est ancienne, mais la paternité de cette étude revient à Phillips (1958) qui est parvenu à expliciter une relation inverse entre le chômage et l'inflation de la Grande Bretagne (1861-1957). La présente étude vise alors à vérifier cette théorie pour les pays de l'Afrique subsaharienne. L'estimation du modèle confirme bel et bien cette théorie. Ainsi, il serait judicieux de mener des politiques contractionnistes « contrôlées » pour promouvoir l'emploi au sein de la Région. Toutefois, cette politique économique nécessite de prendre en compte la qualité des institutions.
    Keywords: Unemployment, inflation, Phillips curve (1958), courbe de Phillips (1958), Chômage inflation courbe de Phillips (1958) Classification JEL : E10 E24 E31 C33 Unemployment inflation Phillips curve (1958), courbe de Phillips (1958) Classification JEL : E10, E24, E31, C33 Unemployment, Chômage
    Date: 2023–05–09
  27. By: Kellard, Neil; Madsen, Jakob B; Snaith, Stuart
    Abstract: The real exchange rate is an important measure of the relative strength of an economy. Given long-term productivity differentials between countries, Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effects suggest that stronger economies will experience real exchange rate appreciations and vice versa. How long can these effects last? Using a novel dataset and trend tests robust to pre-testing for the order of integration, we examine the path of ten ultra-long real exchange rates relative to Sterling with data commencing in the 13th century.Whilst we show Sterling commonly presents a trend appreciation from the 16th century to the 19th century, a striking trend depreciation occurred throughout 20th century with some evidence of prior decline. Further analysis reveals that real exchange rates are cointegrated with productivity differential proxies over much of the last millennia, suggesting the UK’s current productivity decline is more entrenched and persistent than previously thought.
    Keywords: Real exchange rate; Sterling; Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effects; Robust trends; Cointegration
    Date: 2023–05–17
  28. By: Ellora Derenoncourt; Chi Hyun Kim; Moritz Kuhn; Moritz Schularick
    Abstract: The racial wealth gap is the largest of the economic disparities between Black and white Americans, with a white-to-Black per capita wealth ratio of 6 to 1. It is also among the most persistent. In this paper, we construct the first continuous series on white-to-Black per capita wealth ratios from 1860 to 2020, drawing on historical census data, early state tax records, and historical waves of the Survey of Consumer Finances, among other sources. Incorporating these data into a parsimonious model of wealth accumulation for each racial group, we document the role played by initial conditions, income growth, savings behavior, and capital returns in the evolution of the gap. Given vastly different starting conditions under slavery, racial wealth convergence would remain a distant scenario, even if wealth-accumulating conditions had been equal across the two groups since Emancipation. Relative to this equal-conditions benchmark, we find that observed convergence has followed an even slower path over the last 150 years, with convergence stalling after 1950. Since the 1980s, the wealth gap has widened again as capital gains have predominantly benefited white households, and income convergence has stopped.
    Keywords: Wealth accumulation; Wealth inequality; Savings and asset prices; Racial wealth gap
    JEL: J15 N11 N12
    Date: 2022–06–10
  29. By: Sergio A. Correia; Stephan Luck
    Abstract: Call reports—regulatory filings in which commercial banks report their assets, liabilities, income, and other information—are one of the most-used data sources in banking and finance. Though call reports were collected as far back as 1867, the underlying data are only easily accessible for the recent past: the mid-1980s onward in the case of the FDIC’s FFIEC call reports. To help researchers look farther back in time, we’ve begun creating a complete digital record of this “missing” call report data; this data release covers 1867 through 1904, the bulk of the National Banking Era. Here, we describe the digitization process and highlight some of the interesting features of that era from a research perspective.
    Keywords: banking; data; National banks; call reports
    JEL: N0 G2
    Date: 2023–03–06

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.