nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2023‒05‒08
twenty papers chosen by

  1. Military Spending and Innovation: Learning from 19th Century World Fair Exhibition Data By Danzer, Alexander M.; Danzer, Natalia; Feuerbaum, Carsten
  2. Should History Change The Way We Think About Populism? By Alan de Bromhead; Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke
  3. Trends in the Female Longevity Advantage of 19th-Century Birth Cohorts: Exploring the Role of Place and Fertility By Fletcher, Jason M.; Topping, Michael; Joo, Won-tak
  4. The Intergenerational Transmission of World War I on Female Labour By Victor Gay
  5. TSE M2 ETE Development: Theory, Public Policy, and Historical Perspectives (2022-2023) Topics in Economic History By Victor Gay
  6. State of forgiveness: cooperation, conciliation and state formation in Mughal South Asia (1556-1707) By Morshed, Safya
  7. Religious Barriers to Birth Control Access By Marie, Olivier; Zwiers, Esmée
  8. Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB) 1975-2021 By Schmucker, Alexandra; Seth, Stefan; Vom Berge, Philipp
  9. Exposure to War and Its Labor Market Consequences over the Life Cycle By Sebastian T. Braun; Jan Stuhler
  10. Stichprobe der Integrierten Arbeitsmarktbiografien (SIAB) 1975-2021 By Schmucker, Alexandra; Seth, Stefan; Vom Berge, Philipp
  11. Cooperation, Fairness, and Rational Altruism in the Making of the Modern Living Standards. The Case of Maresme (1853-2022) By Jose Luis Martinez-Gonzalez
  12. A Progressive Critique of the Law and Political Economy Movement By Woodcock, Ramsi
  13. Creating cross-sectional data and biographical variables with the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies 1975-2021 - Programming examples for Stata By Vom Berge, Philipp; Schmucker, Alexandra
  14. Household structure, labour participation, and economic inequality in Britain, 1937–61 By Gazeley, Ian; Newell, Andrew; Reynolds, Kevin; Rufrancos, Hector
  15. (De)regulating automation: the rise of credit scoring and market-led banking in the UK and Germany By Van Overbeke, Toon
  16. The Story about One Island and Four Cities. The Socio-Economic Soft Matter Model - Based Report By Agata Angelika Rzoska; Aleksandra Drozd-Rzoska
  17. A trend-cycle decomposition with hysteresis By Javier G. Gómez-Pineda; Julián Roa-Rozo
  18. What Can Historically Black Colleges and Universities Teach about Improving Higher Education Outcomes for Black Students? By Gregory Price; Angelino Viceisza
  19. "La urbanización del ocio": interés privado y planificación estatal en Mar del Plata (1930-1979) By Pegoraro, Víctor Nahuel
  20. Beyond Racial Attitudes: The Role of Outside Options in the Dynamics of White Flight By Peter Q. Blair

  1. By: Danzer, Alexander M. (Catholic University of Eichstätt-Ingolstadt); Danzer, Natalia (Free University of Berlin); Feuerbaum, Carsten (Catholic University of Eichstätt-Ingolstadt)
    Abstract: We provide quantitative evidence on the relationship between military spending and innovation in the 19th century. Combining innovation data from world fairs and historical military data across Europe, we show that national military spending is associated with national innovation towards war logistics such as food processing, but less towards war technology such as guns. This pattern reflects differences in the historical markets for war supplies. European patent data of 1990-2015 suggest a long-term correlation between historical and con- temporaneous innovation patterns.
    Keywords: military spending, innovation, war logistics, food processing, military supply, 19th century
    JEL: H56 O31 O14 N43
    Date: 2023–03
  2. By: Alan de Bromhead; Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke
    Abstract: This paper asks whether history should change the way in which economists and economic historians think about populism. We use Müller’s definition, according to which populism is ‘an exclusionary form of identity politics, which is why it poses a threat to democracy’. We make three historical arguments. First, late 19th century US Populists were not populist. Second, there is no necessary relationship between populism and anti-globalization sentiment. Third, economists have sometimes been on the wrong side of important policy debates involving opponents rightly or wrongly described as populist. History encourages us to avoid an overly simplistic view of populism and its correlates.
    JEL: D72 N40 N70
    Date: 2023–04
  3. By: Fletcher, Jason M. (University of Wisconsin-Madison); Topping, Michael (University of Wisconsin-Madison); Joo, Won-tak (University of Wisconsin-Madison)
    Abstract: This paper uses massive online genealogy data from the United States over the 19th century to estimate period and cohort-based sex differences in longevity. Following previous work, we find a longevity reversal in the mid-19th century that expanded rapidly for at least a half century. For measures of conditional survival past childbearing age, females enjoyed a longevity advantage for the whole century. Unlike most mortality databases of this period, genealogical data allows analysis of spatial patterns and of the impacts of fertility on longevity. Our results suggest very limited evidence of spatial (state) variation in these patterns. We do, however, find evidence that the associations between fertility and longevity partially explain the trends.
    Keywords: longevity, sex differences, US, genealogy
    JEL: J11
    Date: 2023–03
  4. By: Victor Gay (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, IAST - Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse)
    Abstract: Demographic shocks tied to World War I's high death toll induced many women to enter the labour force in the immediate postwar period. I document a positive impact of these newly employed women on the labour force participation of subsequent generations of women until today. I also find that the war permanently altered attitudes toward the role of women in the labour force. I decompose this impact into three channels of intergenerational transmission: transmission from mothers to daughters, transmission from mothers-in-law to daughters-in-law via their sons, and transmission through local social interactions.
    Keywords: World War I, Gender norms, Economic History, Culture, Social norm, Military fatalities, Female labor force participation, Female labor supply, Intergenerational transmission
    Date: 2023–04–04
  5. By: Victor Gay (IAST - Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse , TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Date: 2023–02–22
  6. By: Morshed, Safya
    Abstract: The paper contributes to a growing literature on state capacity with reference to the early-modern Asian empires. The historiography of these states, and especially the Mughal empire of South Asia, has moved away from an image of unrestrained despotism towards that of a constrained state, but is yet to explore fully what these constraints were and what the state did to overcome them. Using a new dataset on conflicts in Mughal South Asia, and an analytical model, the paper shows how forgiving rebel leaders was used as a strategic tool to secure stability, in a setting where high information costs made intermediaries indispensable to the state. The paper also offers some comparison between Asian empires on the role of intermediaries in shaping state constraint and fiscal policies. 1 Acknowledgements:
    Keywords: Asian Empires; early modern; elite-state relationships; Islamic empires; precolonial; South Asia; state capacity; tax revenue
    JEL: N00
    Date: 2023–04–04
  7. By: Marie, Olivier (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Zwiers, Esmée (University of Amsterdam)
    Abstract: This paper presents new causal evidence on the "power" of oral contraceptives in shaping women's lives, leveraging the 1970 liberalization of the Pill for minors in the Netherlands and demand- and supply-side religious preferences that affected Pill take-up. We analyze administrative data to demonstrate that, after Pill liberalization, minors from less conservative areas were more likely to delay fertility/marriage and to accumulate human capital in the long run. We then show how these large effects were eliminated for women facing a higher share of gatekeepers – general practitioners and pharmacists – who were opposed to providing the Pill on religious grounds.
    Keywords: birth control, religion, fertility, marriage, human capital, the Netherlands
    JEL: I18 J12 J13 Z12
    Date: 2023–03
  8. By: Schmucker, Alexandra (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Seth, Stefan (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Vom Berge, Philipp (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)
    Abstract: "This data report describes the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB) 1975 - 2021." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Stichprobe der Integrierten Arbeitsmarktbiografien (SIAB) ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Datenaufbereitung ; Datendokumentation ; Datengewinnung ; Datenqualität ; Datenzugang ; IAB-Beschäftigtenhistorik ; IAB-Leistungsempfängerhistorik ; Stichprobenverfahren ; 1975-2021
    Date: 2023–03–31
  9. By: Sebastian T. Braun; Jan Stuhler
    Abstract: With 70 million dead, World War II remains the most devastating conflict in history. Of the survivors, millions were displaced, returned maimed from the battlefield, or spent years in captivity. We examine the impact of such wartime experiences on labor market careers and show that they often become apparent only at certain life stages. While war injuries reduced employment in old age, former prisoners of war postponed their retirement. Many displaced workers, particularly women, never returned to employment. These responses are in line with standard life-cycle theory and thus likely extend to other conflicts.
    Date: 2023–03
  10. By: Schmucker, Alexandra (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Seth, Stefan (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Vom Berge, Philipp (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)
    Abstract: "This data report describes the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB) 1975 - 2021." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Stichprobe der Integrierten Arbeitsmarktbiografien (SIAB) ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Datenaufbereitung ; Datendokumentation ; Datengewinnung ; Datenqualität ; Datenzugang ; IAB-Beschäftigtenhistorik ; IAB-Leistungsempfängerhistorik ; Stichprobenverfahren ; 1975-2019
    Date: 2023–03–31
  11. By: Jose Luis Martinez-Gonzalez (Universitat de Barcelona – Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain)
    Abstract: Can attitudes and beliefs within each community, as well as their social capital, explain some of the differences in their development? Conducting a macro study in the Maresme region using data from the Contribution Territorial, which includes 5, 412 agricultural farms, 2, 537 owners, and 13 municipalities (1853-1864), we find levels of rational altruism approaching 50%, confirming recent evidence from experimental economics studies. A particularly interesting finding is the correlation between the most altruistic municipalities 160 years ago and those today with higher levels of human capital and per capita family income, as well as the influence of certain study variables on the prosocial behavior of local oligarchies. This result suggests that the attitudes, beliefs, values, and informal rural rules of the past are factors that complement the quality of national institutions today. Economic history not only helps to explain the origins and different trajectories of local economic development, but, more importantly, informs us that investing in regional policies that promote community spirit is a worthwhile endeavor for the future.
    Keywords: Altruism, peasant communities, human capital, informal institutions, development, social change, collective action
    JEL: B52 D03 D64 N33 O43
    Date: 2023–04
  12. By: Woodcock, Ramsi
    Abstract: The emerging law and political economy movement (LPE) in the United States is characterized by an anti-economism that has prevented it from drawing upon a rich tradition of left-wing law and economic scholarship to achieve progressive goals. That tradition began with the first law and economics movement a century ago. It rejected the division of wealth implied by competitive markets. And it showed that neoclassical economics supports the redistribution of wealth in either of two basic ways. One is to reallocate endowments, broadly defined to include all aspects of value that are influenced by legal rules. The other is to manipulate the prices at which inframarginal buyers and sellers transact. The first law and economics movement focused on price manipulation and its alter ego, taxation. The critical legal studies movement that eventually succeeded the first law and economics movement focused on endowments. It sought to redistribute them by changing background rules of private law. In rejecting neoclassical economics as enemy propaganda, LPE has been unable to make progress along either of these two policy dimensions. The movement has treated as new the now century-old proposition that endowments influence market outcomes—in other words, that law determines the market. The movement seems unaware that conservative law and economics long ago accepted this proposition and parried by arguing that the market also determines the law. LPE has also constituted itself around the vague concept of “concentrations of economic power” and placed antitrust at the center of its policy agenda. That is a poor choice because antitrust generates the distribution of wealth that prevails in competitive markets, which is precisely the outcome that progressives have been trying for a century to avoid.
    Date: 2023–03–31
  13. By: Vom Berge, Philipp (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Schmucker, Alexandra (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)
    Abstract: "This FDZ-Methodenreport (including Stata code examples) outlines an approach to construct cross-sectional data at freely selectable reference dates using the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (version 1975-2021). In addition, the generation of biographical variables and the procedure to add one-time payments to related daily wages are described." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Stichprobe der Integrierten Arbeitsmarktbiografien (SIAB) ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Berufsverlauf ; STATA ; Datenaufbereitung ; Datengewinnung ; Datenorganisation ; Lebenslauf ; Lohnhöhe ; Querschnittuntersuchung ; Sonderzuwendung ; 1975-2021
    Date: 2023–03–31
  14. By: Gazeley, Ian; Newell, Andrew; Reynolds, Kevin; Rufrancos, Hector
    Abstract: We investigate household income/expenditure inequality using survey data for the United Kingdom from 1937 to 1961. Previous studies employed tax unit or wage rate data. Between 1937/8 and 1953/4, we find little change in inequality for incomes below the top 5 per cent or 10 per cent. This is consistent with the tax unit data. By 1961, inequality was notably higher than in 1953/4. Three trends might account for this: growth in the shares of non-working and multiple-worker households, and in the proportion of non-manual jobs. Non-manual jobs are diverse in skills and earnings. We find the upward impact on inequality of the rise of non-working households is mostly offset by their being both smaller and poorer. Data limitations disallow evaluating the impacts of the other two trends, but they are consistent with steady postwar wage differentials observed by other studies.
    Keywords: demography; inequality; twentieth century; United Kingdom; wage differentials; ES/L002523/1
    JEL: J1 N0
    Date: 2023–03–27
  15. By: Van Overbeke, Toon
    Abstract: AI and other forms of automation are causing a shift into a more capital-intensive form of capitalism. Many scholars have suggested that we can best understand this process as the cost-efficient substitution of labour by capital in routine tasks based on relative factor costs. However, this model, which has cast firms as endlessly chasing the productivity frontier, has not paid sufficient attention to cross-national divergences in technological changes. This paper builds a comparative historical case study tracing the divergent introduction of credit scoring in British and German bank branches to argue that the introduction of credit scoring was a result of a policy-led process in both countries. Increased liberalisation of financial market institutions benefitted the rise of market-led banking which fundamentally changed the business model of banks resulting in a devaluation of the services provided by branch managers. This case suggests we need to think about the role of politics and policy within our, often deterministic, models of labour-saving technological change.
    Keywords: automation; comparative political economy; credit-scoring; market-led banking
    JEL: F3 G3
    Date: 2022–04–20
  16. By: Agata Angelika Rzoska; Aleksandra Drozd-Rzoska
    Abstract: The report discusses the emergence of the Socio-Economic Soft Matter (SE-SM) as the result of interactions between physics and economy. First, demographic changes since the Industrial Revolution onset are tested using Soft Matter science tools. Notable in the support of innovative derivative-based and distortions-sensitive analytic tools. It revealed the Weibull type powered exponential increase, with a notably lesser rising rate since the crossover detected near the year 1970. Subsequently, demographic (SE-SM) patterns are tested for Rapa Nui (Easter) Island model case and for four large 'hallmark cities' where the rise and decay phases have occurred. They are Detroit and Cleveland in the USA and Lodz (former textile industry center) and Bytom (former coal mining center) in Poland. The analysis explicitly revealed scaling patterns for demographic changes, influenced by the historical and socio-economic backgrounds and the long-lasting determinism in population changes. Universalistic features of demographic changes are discussed within the Socio-Economic Soft Matter concept.
    Date: 2023–04
  17. By: Javier G. Gómez-Pineda; Julián Roa-Rozo
    Abstract: The business cycle is the cycle in the output gap and also in a stationary measure of trend output. Both the output gap and trend output are driven by joint trend-cycle shocks. The model is a univariate trend-cycle decomposition with hysteresis in trend output that enables the estimation of the output gap and trend output in 81 economies in quarterly frequency, since 1995Q1; and 184 economies in yearly frequency, in several cases since 1950, and in a few cases since 1820. Volatility and dispersion, as well as the frequency of large joint trend-cycle shocks, were low during the Gilded Age period; high during the interwar period, even more so in advanced (AD) economies compared to emerging market and developing economies (EMDE); and low in AD economies and high in EMDE economies in the post WWII period. In contrast with other existing estimates of trend output, those from the trend-cycle decomposition with hysteresis do not evolve smoothly, do not result in an artificial boom before recessions and are less sensitive to new data. **** RESUMEN: El ciclo económico es el ciclo en la brecha del producto y también en una medida estacionaria del producto tendencial. Tanto la brecha del producto como el producto tendencial son impulsados por choques conjuntos al ciclo y la tendencia. El modelo es una descomposición ciclo tendencia univariada con histéresis en el producto tendencia que permite la estimación de la brecha del producto y el producto tendencial en 81 economías en frecuencia trimestral desde 1995Q1 y en 184 economías en frecuencia anual desde 1975. La volatilidad, dispersión y frecuencia de choques conjuntos grandes fueron bajos durante el período de la Época Dorada; altos durante el período entre guerras, aún más en economías avanzadas (AD) en comparación con las emergentes y en desarrollo (EMDE); y bajo en las economías AD y alto en las economías EMDE en la segunda postguerra. En contraste con otros estimativos existentes del producto tendencial, los de la descomposición tendencia-ciclo con histéresis no evolucionan de forma suave, no resultan en un boom artificial antes de las recesiones y son menos sensibles a los datos nuevos.
    Keywords: Hysteresis, Business cycles, Business Fluctuations, Univariate model, Trend-cycle decomposition, Trend output, Output gap, Potential output, Histéresis, Ciclo de los negocios, Fluctuaciones económicas, Modelo univariado, Descomposición tendencia ciclo, Producto tendencial, Brecha del producto, Producto potencial
    JEL: E32 E50 O47 E58 E37
    Date: 2023–04
  18. By: Gregory Price; Angelino Viceisza
    Abstract: Historically Black colleges and universities are institutions that were established prior to 1964 with the principal mission of educating Black Americans. In this essay, we focus on two main issues. We start by examining how Black College students perform across HBCUs and non-HBCUs by looking at a relatively broad range of outcomes, including college and graduate school completion, job satisfaction, social mobility, civic engagement, and health. HBCUs punch significantly above their weight, especially considering their significant lack of resources. We then turn to the potential causes of these differences and provide a glimpse into the “secret sauce” of HBCUs. We conclude with potential implications for HBCU and non-HBCU policy.
    JEL: I21 J01 J15 Z13
    Date: 2023–04
  19. By: Pegoraro, Víctor Nahuel
    Abstract: El trabajo analiza el impacto de la normativa urbana en la conformación de Mar del Plata como una ciudad moderna entre 1930 y 1979. Se pregunta acerca de la relación entre el interés privado y el rol del Estado como hacedor de estrategias de planificación del territorio en una localidad turística. En esta línea, nos detenemos en la legislación sancionada y su implementación; en la opinión de expertos y la mirada profesional en las principales revistas del rubro; por último, en las consecuencias de la debilidad oficial para encauzar un desarrollo edilicio armónico. Arribamos a la conclusión de que la "urbanización del ocio" sobre el litoral marítimo fue obra del interés especulativo en las zonas de mayor rentabilidad inmobiliaria. Y ello fue guiado por el capital privado junto con la anuencia del Estado local y provincial.
    Keywords: Planificación Urbana; Planificación Territorial; Mar del Plata; 1930-1979;
    Date: 2022
  20. By: Peter Q. Blair
    Abstract: When the fraction of minorities in a neighborhood exceeds the tipping point white flight accelerates. I develop a revealed-preference method to estimate the tipping points of 38, 000 census tracts and the preferences of households for minority neighbors in the 123 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) covered by these census tracts over 40 years (1970-2010). I find that the average tipping point in an MSA initially covaries more with the racial attitudes of households than the outside options that they face but that this relationship reverses overtime. Ignoring outside options would obscure the declining role that racial attitudes play in understanding segregation.
    JEL: J60 R21 R23
    Date: 2023–04

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