nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2023‒04‒03
forty papers chosen by

  1. The cultural and aesthetic roots of The Joyless Economy By Di Giovinazzo, Viviana
  2. When Did Growth Begin? New Estimates of Productivity Growth in England from 1250 to 1870 By Bouscasse, P.; Nakamura, E.; Steinsson, J.
  3. The Highs and the Lows: Bank failures in Sweden through inflation and deflation, 1914-1926 By Kenny, Seán; Ögren, Anders; Zhao, Liang
  4. The origination and distribution of money market instruments: sterling bills of exchange during the first globalization By Accominotti, Olivier; Lucena-Piquero, Delio; Ugolini, Stefano
  5. Gender equality, growth, and how a technological trap destroyed female work By Humphries, Jane; Schneider, Benjamin
  6. The Changing Meaning of the Wage Bargaining Round in Sweden since the 1960s: A Contextual Approach to Shifts in Industrial Relations By Bengtsson, Erik
  7. Quelles leçons de l’histoire ? ou comment faire face aux fortes augmentations de dette publique ? By Vincent Bignon; Pierre Sicsic
  8. Milton Friedman and the road to monetarism: a review essay By George S. Tavlas
  9. Slavery and the British Industrial Revolution By Heblich, Stephan; Redding, Stephen J; Voth, Hans-Joachim
  10. Census 2023: All You Want To Know About By Soha Tehreem
  11. Did smallpox cause stillbirths? Maternal smallpox infection, vaccination and stillbirths in Sweden, 1780-1839 By Schneider, Eric B.; Edvinsson, Sören; Ogasawara, Kota
  12. Exposure to war and its labor market consequences over the life cycle By Braun, Sebastian T.; Stuhler, Jan
  13. Changing local customs: Long-run impacts of the earliest campaigns against female genital cutting By Congdon Fors, Heather; Isaksson, Ann-Sofie; Annika, Lindskog
  14. Wilhelm Lautenbach’s credit mechanics – a precursor to the current money supply debate By Decker, Frank; Goodhart, Charles A. E.
  15. The Football World Cup: the good deal? By Luc Arrondel; Richard Duhautois
  16. Life history and mutation rate joint evolution By Avila, Piret; Lehmann, Laurent
  17. High Rise, Town-Planning & Current Urban Paradigm of Pakistan By Aimen Shakeel Abbasi
  18. The geography of structural transformation: Effects on inequality and mobility By Kohei Takeda
  19. Una lectura epistemológica de la dicotomía positivo-normativo: De Hume a la teoría de la elección racional By Flavia Poinsot
  20. From Reality Keys to Oraclize. A Deep Dive into the History of Bitcoin Oracles By Giulio Caldarelli
  21. Parallel processes and divergent outcomes: the transformation of the economies of former Socialist countries By Alexander Chepurenko; Miklos Szanyi
  22. Review of “Jan Tinbergen (1903-1994) and the Rise of Economic Expertise” by Erwin Dekker By Carret, Vincent
  23. Religious leaders and rule of law By Sultan Mehmood; Avner Seror
  24. International migration and income inequality By Nicola Daniele Coniglio; Vitorocco Peragine; Davide Vurchio
  25. Review of “Thomas Aquinas and the Civil Economy Tradition: The Mediterranean Spirit of Capitalism” by Paolo Santori By Erasmo, Valentina
  26. Review of “Bettering Humanomics: a New, and Old Approach to Economic Science” by Deidre Nansen McCloskey By Paganelli, Maria Pia
  27. El proceso de reformas de Vietnam a partir de 1986. Lecciones desde la Productividad Inclusiva By Martín Calveira; Eduardo Fracchia
  28. Review of “Calculation and Morality: The Costs of Slavery and the Value of Emancipation in the French Antilles” by Caroline Oudin-Bastide and Philippe Steiner By Bíró, Gábor
  29. Economics For The 21st Century By Shaheera Bano
  30. Review of “Society on the Edge: Social Science and Public Policy in the Postwar United States” edited by Philippe Fontaine and Jefferson D. Pooley By Ross, Dorothy
  31. Ensayo analítico sobre los orígenes de la teoría de la competencia imperfecta By Martín Alejandro Basso; Isabel del Valle Gulli
  32. Review of “Albert O. Hirschman: An Intellectual Biography” by Michele Alacevich By BIANCHI, ANA MARIA AFONSO FERREIRA
  33. Geopolitical Risk and Inflation Spillovers across European and North American Economies By Elie Bouri; David Gabauer; Rangan Gupta; Harald Kinateder
  34. Review of “Léon Walras, économiste et socialiste libéral” by Jean-Pierre Potier By Numa, Guy
  35. Review of “Democracy, Race, & Justice: The Speeches and Writings of Sadie T.M. Alexander” edited by Nina Banks By Kuehn, Daniel
  36. A tale of two tails: 130 years of growth-at-risk By Martin G\"achter; Elias Hasler; Florian Huber
  37. Review of “Political Economy and International Order in Interwar Europe” edited by Alexandre M. Cunha and Carlos Eduardo Suprinyak. By Alacevich, Michele
  38. Review of “America by Numbers: Quantification, Democracy, and the Birth of National Statistics” by Emmanuel Didier By Lanata-Briones, Cecilia T.
  39. Adam Smith and Repugnance as a Constraint on Markets By Walter Castro; Julio Jorge Elías
  40. The Emergence of China’s Mergers and Acquisitions Market By Chen, Chien-Hsun

  1. By: Di Giovinazzo, Viviana
    Abstract: Tibor Scitovsky’s The Joyless Economy (1976) is now regarded as a landmark publication in the combined fields of economic and psychology, with standard accounts of Scitovsky’s ideas emphasizing the influence of 1960s motivational psychology literature. While this encounter is all-important, Scitovsky’s ideas need at the same time to be read in the context of the evolution of his critique of 20th century mass society. The present paper presents that critique and demonstrates its fundamental importance for Scitovsky’s diagnosis of an economy he termed joyless. Drawing upon his Memoirs, we show how Scitovsky’s ideas were initially shaped by the culture/aesthetics of his early years in Budapest, followed by his experiences of rising totalitarianism in inter-war Europe, and further affected by his move to the consumption society of post-war America. Important the way he engaged with the writings of influential contemporary cultural commentators, including André Gide, Erich Fromm, Bertrand de Jouvenel, Lewis Mumford and Bernard Rudofsky. Close scrutiny also reveals resonances between Scitovsky’s cultural concerns and those of some of the Bloomsbury Group.
    Date: 2023–02–23
  2. By: Bouscasse, P.; Nakamura, E.; Steinsson, J.
    Abstract: We provide new estimates of the evolution of productivity in England from 1250 to 1870. Real wages over this period were heavily influenced by plague-induced swings in the population. We develop and implement a new methodology for estimating productivity that accounts for these Malthusian dynamics. In the early part of our sample, we find that productivity growth was zero. Productivity growth began in 1600—almost a century before the Glorious Revolution. We estimate productivity growth of 3% per decade between 1600 and 1760, which increased to 6% per decade between 1770 and 1860. Our estimates attribute much of the increase in output growth during the Industrial Revolution to a falling land share of production, rather than to faster productivity growth. Our evidence helps distinguish between theories of why growth began. In particular, our findings support the idea that broad-based economic change preceded the bourgeois institutional reforms of 17th century England and may have contributed to causing them. We estimate relatively weak Malthusian population forces on real wages. This implies that our model can generate sustained deviations from the “iron law of wages†prior the Industrial Revolution.
    JEL: N13 O40 J10
    Date: 2023–03–07
  3. By: Kenny, Seán (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Ögren, Anders (Department of Economic History, Uppsala University); Zhao, Liang (Department of Economic History, Lund University)
    Abstract: This paper revisits the Swedish banking crisis (1919-26) that materialized as post war deflation replaced wartime inflation (1914-18). Inspired by Fisher’s ‘debt deflation theory’, we employ survival analysis to ‘predict’ which banks would fail, given certain ex-ante bank characteristics. Our tests support the theory; maturity structures mattered most in a regime of falling prices, with vulnerable shorter-term customer loans and bank liabilities representing the most consistent cause of bank distress in the crisis. Similarly, stronger growth in i) leverage, ii) weaker collateral loans and iii) foreign borrowing during the boom were all associated with bank failure in post- war Sweden (1919-26).
    Keywords: Banking crisis; survival analysis; early warning indicators; debt deflation; maturity mismatch; Sweden
    JEL: E58 G01 G21 G28 N24
    Date: 2023–01–17
  4. By: Accominotti, Olivier; Lucena-Piquero, Delio; Ugolini, Stefano
    Abstract: This article presents a detailed analysis of how liquid money market instruments—sterling bills of exchange—were produced during the first globalization. We rely on a unique dataset that reports systematic information on all 23, 493 bills re‐discounted by the Bank of England in the year 1906. Using descriptive statistics and network analysis, we reconstruct the complete network of linkages between agents involved in the origination and distribution of these bills. Our analysis reveals the truly global nature of the London bill market before the First World War and underscores the crucial role played by London intermediaries (acceptors and discounters) in overcoming information asymmetries between borrowers and lenders on this market. The complex industrial organization of the London money market ensured that risky private debts could be transformed into extremely liquid and safe monetary instruments traded throughout the global financial system.
    Keywords: money market; industrial organisation; information asymmetry; bill of exchange
    JEL: E42 G23 L14 N20
    Date: 2021–11–01
  5. By: Humphries, Jane; Schneider, Benjamin
    Abstract: Development economists have long studied the relationship between gender equality and economic growth. More recently, economic historians have taken an overdue interest. We sketch the pathways within the development literature that have been hypothesized as linking equality for women to rising incomes, and the reverse channels–from higher incomes to equality. We describe how the European Marriage Pattern literature applies these mechanisms, and we highlight problems with the claimed link between equality and growth. We then explain how a crucial example of technological unemployment for women–the destruction of hand spinning during the British Industrial Revolution–contributed to the emergence of the male breadwinner family. We show how this family structure created household relationships that play into the development pathways, and outline its persistent effects into the twenty-first century.
    Keywords: development economics; family structure; gender equality; technological unemployment
    JEL: J12 J63 N33 O14 O33
    Date: 2021–11–09
  6. By: Bengtsson, Erik (Department of Economic History, Lund University)
    Abstract: Sweden is renowned for its centralized wage bargaining system, which has been studied for decades from the point of view of inflation, wage differentials and unemployment. A coordinated system in place since 1997 has been compared to the centralized system of the postwar era, while other scholars have pointed to differences in how the institutions work in practice. This paper studies media coverage of wage bargaining rounds in the 1950s-1960s and in the 2000s-2010s to investigate the social understanding of what the wage bargaining institutions are supposed to do. The results indicate that the operation of the wage bargaining system in the 2000s and that in the post-war era are in fact understood very differently: while widely shared aims for wage bargaining rounds in the 1950s and 1960s were to a high degree formulated by the trade unions, trade union influence over the agenda was significantly weaker in the 2000s and 2010s, when external experts, not the least from the financial sector, were to a much higher degree used to define and formulate what good bargaining outcomes would be.
    Keywords: trade unions; collective bargaining; Sweden; Social Democracy
    JEL: J50 N34
    Date: 2023–01–11
  7. By: Vincent Bignon (CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR, AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France); Pierre Sicsic (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)
    Abstract: How have societies coped with large increases in public debt? in the European history of the last three centuries, these moments have occurred mainly during and after wars, with the notable exception of the end of the 19th century and the end of the 20th century. these increases have had contrasting consequences both in terms of macroeconomic consequences and in terms of the solutions implemented to reduce these debt bumps. a distinctive element between these 20th century episodes and those of the 18th and 19th centuries was the use of financial engineering to smooth out the debt jumps, making it possible to "buy the time" necessary, in any post-war period, to restore macroeconomic equilibrium.
    Abstract: De nouvelles interventions publiques sont en débat pour lutter contre le dérèglement climatique, gérer la crise énergétique et les difficultés sanitaires, entre autres. Ces débats ont lieu dans un environnement singulier pour les finances publiques des pays développés. En effet, le niveau de dettes publiques a augmenté depuis 2017 pour atteindre des niveaux inédits en temps de paix. La gestion de ces dettes publiques conditionne les évolutions budgétaires à venir et le financement des futurs investissements publics, par l'impôt, de nouvelles dettes ou par des baisses d'autres dépenses publiques.Les niveaux actuels des dettes publiques sont parfois jugés inquiétants, sans que la question de leur soutenabilité ou désirabilité soit clairement explicitée. Par ailleurs, les différentes politiques de réduction de dettes publiques à des niveaux souhaitables doivent être comparées quant à leur effet de court terme et long terme. Quel est l'horizon raisonnable de réduction de dettes publiques, 5 ans ou 20 ans ? Quel est ce niveau de dettes publiques à la fois souhaitables et soutenables ? Ces questions difficiles doivent éclairer le débat de politique économique et de manière concrète le cadre européen de coordination budgétaire.Ce numéro aborde ce débat en revenant sur l'histoire des dettes publiques du XVIIIe au XXIe siècle, qui est riche d'enseignements. Il présente le débat économique sur le niveau souhaitable et soutenable des dettes publiques, en discutant à la fois sa dimension économique et politique. Enfin, des propositions de gestion des dettes publiques sont exposées, comme leurs implications pour le débat européen.
    Date: 2022–10–20
  8. By: George S. Tavlas (Bank of Greece)
    Abstract: The objective of Ed Nelson’s two-volume book, Milton Friedman and Economic Debate in the United States, 1932-1972, is to provide an account of Friedman’s views in major monetary-policy debates during the period identified in the book’s title. Nelson tells the story of the development of Friedman’s monetary framework, from its Keynesian origins in the early-1940s, to its gradual absorption of monetary factors in the late-1940s, and, finally, to its monetarist character of the 1950s and after, through the windows of a selection debates that engaged Friedman. At the same time, Nelson places Friedman’s monetary contributions within the context of the modern macroeconomics literature. In this essay, I consider doctrinal issues related to Nelson’s account of the development of Friedman’s monetarist framework.
    Keywords: Milton Friedman; monetarism; Keynesian economics; New Keynesian model
    JEL: B31 E51 E52
    Date: 2022–11
  9. By: Heblich, Stephan (University of Toronto and NBER); Redding, Stephen J (Princeton University, NBER and CEPR); Voth, Hans-Joachim (University of Zurich, CEPR and CAGE)
    Abstract: Did overseas slave-holding by Britons accelerate the Industrial Revolution? We provide theory and evidence on the contribution of slave wealth to Britain’s growth prior to 1835. We compare areas of Britain with high and low exposure to the colonial plantation economy, using granular data on wealth from compensation records. Before the major expansion of slave holding from the 1640s onwards, both types of area exhibited similar levels of economic activity. However, by the 1830s, slavery wealth is strongly correlated with economic development – slave-holding areas are less agricultural, closer to cotton mills, and have higher property wealth. We rationalize these findings using a dynamic spatial model, where slavery investment raises the return to capital accumulation, expanding production in capital-intensive sectors. To establish causality, we use arguably exogenous variation in slave mortality on the passage from Africa to the Indies, driven by weather shocks. We show that weather shocks influenced the continued involvement of ancestors in the slave trade; weather-induced slave mortality of slave-trading ancestors in each area is strongly predictive of slaveholding in 1833. Quantifying our model using the observed data, we find that Britain would have been substantially poorer and more agricultural in the absence of overseas slave wealth. Overall, our findings are consistent with the view that slavery wealth accelerated Britain’s industrial revolution.
    Keywords: slavery, industrial revolution, trade, nance JEL Classification: J15, F60, N63
    Date: 2023
  10. By: Soha Tehreem (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics)
    Abstract: In Pakistan’s history, six censuses have been undertaken in 1951, 1961, 1972, 1981, and 1998, and the last in 2017. All these censuses were conducted through traditional paper-based methods. But the result of the 2017 census was not approved due to some reasons, and CCI directed that the process of the new census should start as early as possible according to international best practices by using the latest technology.
    Date: 2023
  11. By: Schneider, Eric B.; Edvinsson, Sören; Ogasawara, Kota
    Abstract: While there is strong evidence that maternal smallpox infection can cause fetal loss, it is not clear whether smallpox infections were a demographically important source of stillbirths historically. In this paper, we use parish-level data from the Swedish Tabellverket dataset from 1780 to 1839 to test the effect of smallpox on stillbirths quantitatively, analysing periods before and after the introduction of vaccination in 1802. Before 1820, we find that smallpox infection was not a major cause of stillbirths because most women contracted smallpox as children and were therefore not susceptible during pregnancy. We do find a small, statistically significant effect of smallpox on stillbirths from 1820-39 when waning immunity from vaccination put a greater share of pregnant women at risk of contracting smallpox. However, the reduced prevalence of smallpox in this period limited the demographic impact. Thus, smallpox was not an important driver in historical stillbirth trends.
    Keywords: stillbirth; fetal death; smallpox; vaccination; historical demography; T&F deal
    JEL: J13
    Date: 2023–02–22
  12. By: Braun, Sebastian T.; Stuhler, Jan
    Abstract: With 70 million dead, World War II remains the most devastating conflict in history. Of the survivors, millions were displaced, returned maimed from the battlefield, or spent years in captivity. We examine the impact of such wartime experiences on labor market careers and show that they often become apparent only at certain life stages. While war injuries reduced employment in old age, former prisoners of war postponed their retirement. Many displaced workers, particularly women, never returned to employment. These responses are in line with standard life-cycle theory and thus likely extend to other conflicts.
    Keywords: World War II, labor market careers, war injuries, prisoners of war, displacement, life‐, cycle models
    JEL: J24 J26 N34
    Date: 2023
  13. By: Congdon Fors, Heather (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Isaksson, Ann-Sofie (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Annika, Lindskog (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the long-run impacts of Christian missionary expansion on the practice of female genital cutting (FGC) in sub-Saharan Africa. The empirical analysis draws on historical data on the locations of early European missions geographically matched with Demographic and Health Survey data on FGC practices of around 410, 000 respondents from 42 surveys performed over a 30-year period (1990-2020) in 14 African countries. The results suggest that historical Christian missions have impacted FGC practices today. The benchmark estimates imply that a person living 10 km from a historical mission is 4-6 percentage points less likely to have undergone FGC than someone living 100 km from a mission site. Similarly, having one more mission per 1000 km2 in one’s ancestral ethnic homeland decreases the probability of having undergone FGC by around 8 percentage points. The effect is robust across a large number of specifications and control variables, both modern and historic. We use ethnographic data on pre-colonial FGC to show that the location of missions was not correlated with the practice of FGC in the local population.
    Keywords: Female genital cutting; missions; norms; Africa
    JEL: D71 D91 I15 O55
    Date: 2023–03
  14. By: Decker, Frank; Goodhart, Charles A. E.
    Abstract: This article assesses the theory of credit mechanics within the context of the current money supply debate. Credit mechanics and related approaches were developed by a group of German monetary economists during the 1920s-1960s. Credit mechanics overcomes a one-sided, bank-centric view of money creation, which is often encountered in monetary theory. We show that the money supply is influenced by the interplay of loan creation and repayment rates; the relative share of credit volume neutral debtor-to-debtor and creditor-to-creditor payments; the availability of loan security; and the behaviour of non-banks and non-borrowing bank creditors. With the standard textbook models of money creation now discredited, we argue that a more general approach to money supply theory involving credit mechanics needs to be re-established.
    Keywords: bank credit creation; money supply theory; credit and balances mechanics; borrowers' collateral
    JEL: E40 E41 E50 E51
    Date: 2022–03–04
  15. By: Luc Arrondel (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Richard Duhautois (LIRSA - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire de recherche en sciences de l'action - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - HESAM - HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université, CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - HESAM - HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé)
    Abstract: The "jewel" in FIFA's crown and its main "asset" remains the World Cup. Established in 1928, it has been held every four years since the 1930 tournament hosted and won by Uruguay among 13 teams. Qatar will host 32 teams, but more than 200 teams from all six continental confederations have participated in the qualifying rounds. After the Second World War, the World Cup experienced a very strong growth in terms of broadcasting (from 1966), sporting notoriety, social stakes and economic activity (especially from the 1970s). The competition has become a global event, benefiting from a planetary diffusion. Not only has the World Cup become FIFA's main source of funding, but many national federations and governments are interested in hosting the event to benefit from the potential social and economic benefits.
    Abstract: Le « joyau » de la couronne de la FIFA et son principal « actif » demeure la Coupe du monde. Créée en 1928, elle a lieu tous les quatre ans depuis le tournoi de 1930 organisé et remporté par l'Uruguay parmi treize prétendants. Le Qatar accueillera 32 équipes, mais plus de 200 formations appartenant aux six confédérations continentales ont participé aux phases éliminatoires. Après la Seconde Guerre mondiale, la Coupe du monde va connaitre une très forte croissance en termes de diffusion (à partir de 1966), de notoriété sportive, d'enjeu social et d'activité économique (surtout à partir des années 1970). La compétition est devenue un évènement global, bénéficiant d'une diffusion planétaire. La Coupe du monde est non seulement devenue la principale source de financement de la FIFA, mais un grand nombre de fédérations nationales et de gouvernements souhaitent organiser cet événement pour bénéficier d'éventuelles retombées en matière sociales et économiques.
    Keywords: Economy, Geopolitics, Television, World Cup, Coupe du monde, Economie, FIFA, Géoéconomie, Télévision
    Date: 2022
  16. By: Avila, Piret; Lehmann, Laurent
    Abstract: The cost of germline maintenance gives rise to a trade-off between lowering the deleterious muta-tion rate and investing in life history functions. Therefore, life history and the mutation rate evolve jointly, but this coevolution is not well understood. We develop a mathematical model to analyse the evolution of resource allocation traits affecting simultaneously life history and the deleterious mutation rate. First, we show that the invasion fitness of such resource allocation traits can be approximated by the basic reproductive number of the least-loaded class; the expected lifetime pro-duction of offspring without deleterious mutations born to individuals without deleterious mutations. Second, we apply the model to investigate (i) the joint evolution of reproductive effort and germline maintenance and (ii) the joint evolution of age-at-maturity and germline maintenance. This analysis provides two biological predictions. First, under higher exposure to environmental mutagens (e.g. oxygen), selection favours higher allocation to germline maintenance at the expense of life history. Second, when exposure to environmental mutagens is higher, life histories tend to be faster with individuals having shorter life spans and smaller body sizes at maturity. Our results suggest that mutation accumulation via the cost of germline maintenance is a major force shaping life-history traits.
    Keywords: life-history evolution; mutation accumulation; adaptive dynamics; cost of fidelity; mutation rate evolution
    Date: 2023–03–06
  17. By: Aimen Shakeel Abbasi (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics)
    Abstract: The situation of the Urban population: Looking back on history, globally, the rural component had a higher number than the urban population till 2008. Post-2009, the urban population started growing. The migrated population from rural to urban areas concentrated in a few specific urban centers resulting in unequal distribution and uncontrolled Urban centers. In last 50 years there have been a rapid increase in urbanization around the globe.
    Date: 2022
  18. By: Kohei Takeda
    Abstract: The interplay between structural transformation in the aggregate and local economies is key to understanding spatial inequality and worker mobility. This paper develops a dynamic overlapping generations model of economic geography where historical exposure to different industries creates persistence in occupational structure, and non-homothetic preferences and differential productivity growth lead to different rates of structural transformation. Despite the heterogeneity across locations, sectors, and time, the model remains tractable and is calibrated with the U.S. economy from 1980 to 2010. The calibration allows us to back out measures of upward mobility and inequality, thereby providing theoretical underpinnings to the Gatsby Curve. The counterfactual analysis shows that structural transformation has substantial effects on mobility: if there were no productivity growth in the manufacturing sector, income mobility would be about 6 percent higher, and if amenities were equalized across locations, it would rise by around 10 percent. In these effects, we find that different degrees of historical exposure to industries in local economies play an important role.
    Keywords: structural transformation, upward mobility, labor mobility, economic geography
    Date: 2022–12–12
  19. By: Flavia Poinsot
    Abstract: La eponimia en economía suele estar presente a lo largo de la historia del pensamiento. El “tenedor de Hume” no es la excepción. Atribuyéndose en libros de textos únicamente a John Neville Keynes, la dicotomía ser-debe ser halla sus raíces en el pensamiento del escocés David Hume quien coloca la piedra angular en una trayectoria representacional que atraviesa el pensamiento de los clásicos hasta ser recogida y explicitada por Keynes padre. Atribuible generalmente al pensamiento ortodoxo, la dicotomía difiere del pensamiento heterodoxo donde se levantan voces discordantes. Sin embargo, la dicotomía logra zanjar las dificultades y asoma su nariz con nueva vestimenta en la teoría de la elección racional. Este trabajo analiza desde el aspecto epistemológico el surgimiento y evolución del “tenedor de Hume” el cual, se esboza, se halla implícito a lo largo del pensamiento económico.
    JEL: H8 Z0
    Date: 2022–11
  20. By: Giulio Caldarelli
    Abstract: Before the advent of alternative blockchains such as Ethereum, the future of decentralization was all in the hands of Bitcoin. Together with Nakamoto itself, early developers were trying to leverage Bitcoin potential to decentralize traditionally centralized applications. However, being Bitcoin a decentralized machine, available non-trustless oracles were considered unsuitable. Therefore, strategies had to be elaborated to solve the so-called oracle problem in the newborn scenario. By interviewing early developers and crawling early forums and repositories, this paper aims to retrace and reconstruct the chain of events and contributions that gave birth to oracles on Bitcoin. The evolution of early trust models and approaches to solving the oracle problem is also outlined. Analyzing technical and social barriers to building oracles on Bitcoin, the transition to Ethereum will also be discussed.
    Date: 2023–02
  21. By: Alexander Chepurenko (National research university Higher School of Economics); Miklos Szanyi
    Abstract: The paper deals with the problems of diverging developmental trajectories of former Socialist economies of the Central and South-Eastern European countries as well as of the former USSR republics. The purpose is exploring the developmental trends of three groups of economies – ECE, Balkans and some of the CIS – which started from seemingly same initial base, but later showed some specifics both regarding the socio-economic orders and the dynamics of internal developments. The paper argues that over the 30 years of post-Socialist development, these countries moved over certain periods of adaptation and mimicry (mostly importing or imitating institutions of the established market economies and democracies), the later stage of evaluating of the experience and developing of some hybrid socio-economic models, and the contemporary stage of what is called ‘dependent’, or ‘periphery’ capitalisms in ECE and Balkan countries vs. ‘backslide transition’ in Russia and some other CIS countries. Thus, the outcomes of the systemic transition are shown as problematic, fragile and different. The paper refers these divergences to a set of differing preconditions as well as institutional traps which occurred during the systemic change itself, and shows both commonalities as well as specifics of post-Socialist socio-economic development also within each of the three sub-groups of countries. The paper bases on the desk research of the relevant literature and own investigations.
    Keywords: transition, post-Socialist economies, Central and Eastern Europe, systemic comparison
    JEL: P20 P21 P30 P51
    Date: 2021–10
  22. By: Carret, Vincent
    Abstract: Review of “Jan Tinbergen (1903-1994) and the Rise of Economic Expertise” by Erwin Dekker.
    Date: 2023–02–23
  23. By: Sultan Mehmood (NSE - New Economic School of Moscow, AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Avner Seror (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: In this paper, we provide systematic evidence of how historical religious institutions affect the rule of law. In a difference-in-differences framework, we show that districts in Pakistan where the historical presence of religious institutions is higher, rule of law is worse. This deterioration is economically significant, persistent, and likely explained by religious leaders gaining political office. We explain these findings with a model where religious leaders leverage their high legitimacy to run for office and subvert the Courts. We test for and find no evidence supporting several competing explanations: the rise of secular wealthy landowners, dynastic political leaders and changes in voter attitudes are unable to account for the patterns in the data. Our estimates indicate that religious leaders expropriate rents through the legal system amounting to about 0.06 percent of GDP every year.
    Date: 2023–01
  24. By: Nicola Daniele Coniglio; Vitorocco Peragine; Davide Vurchio
    Abstract: In this paper we explore the links between international migration and income inequality. After presenting a simple model which considers the role of income distribution in individual decisions to migrate, we estimate a set of models on the determinants of yearly bilateral migration from a very large pool of countries in the period 1960-2019. The empirical results confirm that inequality—in both origin and destination countries—significantly shapes individual choices about where, and whether, to migrate.
    Keywords: International migration, Income inequality, Income distribution, Inequality
    Date: 2023
  25. By: Erasmo, Valentina
    Abstract: Review of PAOLO SANTORI, Thomas Aquinas and the Civil Economy Tradition: The Mediterranean Spirit of Capitalism, Routledge, London, 2021.
    Date: 2023–02–23
  26. By: Paganelli, Maria Pia
    Abstract: Review of “Bettering Humanomics: a New, and Old Approach to Economic Science” by Deidre Nansen McCloskey. University of Chicago Press. 2021.
    Date: 2023–02–23
  27. By: Martín Calveira; Eduardo Fracchia
    Abstract: El presente trabajo analiza el proceso de transformación de la Republica Socialista de Vietnam iniciado en la década de 1980 a partir de reformas estructurales incluidas en el programa denominado Doi Moi (Renovación). Ese conjunto de medidas integrales tuvieron resultados notablemente favorables en términos de crecimiento económico y desarrollo productivo y social. En ese sentido la gestión de los cambios fue convergente con los objetivos de Productividad Inclusiva, principalmente al observar la inversión en capital humano derivado del énfasis en la educación.
    JEL: O1 O4
    Date: 2022–11
  28. By: Bíró, Gábor
    Abstract: Review of Caroline Oudin-Bastide and Philippe Steiner, Calculation and Morality: The Costs of Slavery and the Value of Emancipation in the French Antilles (New York: Oxford University Press, 2019), pp. xiii+254, $76.25 (hardcover). ISBN: 9780190856854.
    Date: 2023–02–23
  29. By: Shaheera Bano (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics)
    Abstract: The current position of economics in the world is considered the only general law in the whole social sciences. Social scientists believe that many phenomena are actually challenging to explain. However, in economics, agents react to changes in incentives which gives us an important insight into a given situation. Microeconomics has made substantial scientific progress in the past 50 years.
    Date: 2022
  30. By: Ross, Dorothy
    Abstract: Review of Philippe Fontaine and Jefferson D. Pooley (eds), Society on the Edge: Social Science and Public Policy in the Postwar United States (Cambridge University Press, 2021).
    Date: 2023–02–23
  31. By: Martín Alejandro Basso; Isabel del Valle Gulli
    Abstract: En el presente trabajo se analiza la crítica de Sraffa a la competencia perfecta, el alcance de su obra y cómo ésta contribuyó al desarrollo de la teoría de la competencia imperfecta. Se destacan las contribuciones más importantes de Robinson y la trascendencia de su aporte; en particular, se muestra cómo la conclusión que ella considera más relevante, a saber, que el trabajo es explotado en la mayoría de las situaciones, no fue un tema muy tenido en cuenta por economistas posteriores. Asimismo, se efectúan algunos comentarios de la obra de Chamberlin, la cual fue desarrollada sobre el mismo tema, presentando en forma independiente y simultánea resultados similares.
    JEL: B13 B21 D41 D43
    Date: 2022–11
  32. By: BIANCHI, ANA MARIA AFONSO FERREIRA (Universidade de São Paulo)
    Abstract: Review of Michele Alacevich, Albert O. Hirschman: an Intellectual Biography. Columbia University Press.
    Date: 2023–02–23
  33. By: Elie Bouri (School of Business, Lebanese American University, Beirut, Lebanon); David Gabauer (Software Competence Center Hagenberg, Hagenberg, Austria); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Harald Kinateder (School of Business, Economics and Information Systems, University of Passau, Germany)
    Abstract: In this paper, we examine the spillover across the monthly inflation rates (measured by the CPI) covering the USA, Canada, UK, Germany, France, Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Greece. Using data covering the period from May 1963 to November 2022 within a time-varying spillover approach, we show that the total spillover index across the inflation rates spiked during the war in Ukraine period, exceeding its previous peak shown during the 1970s energy crisis. Notably, we apply a quantile-on-quantile regression and reveal that the total spillover index is positively associated with the level of global geopolitical risk (GPR) index. Levels of GPR are positively influencing high levels of the inflation spillover index, whereas the GPR Acts index is positively associated with all levels of inflation spillover index. Given that rising levels of inflation are posing risks to the financial system and economic growth, these findings should matter to the central banks and policymakers in advanced economies. They suggest that the policy response should go beyond conventional monetary tools by considering the political actions necessary to solve the Russia-Ukraine war and ease the global geopolitical tensions.
    Keywords: Inflation spillovers; geopolitical risk; TVP-VAR; dynamic connectedness
    JEL: C32 C5 G15
    Date: 2023–03
  34. By: Numa, Guy
    Abstract: Review of Jean-Pierre Potier, Léon Walras, économiste et socialiste libéral (Paris: Classiques Garnier, 2019), pp. xx + 564, 58€ (paperback). ISBN: 9782406095934.
    Date: 2023–02–23
  35. By: Kuehn, Daniel
    Abstract: Review of Democracy, Race, & Justice: The Speeches and Writings of Sadie T.M. Alexander, Edited by Nina Banks, Yale University Press, 2021, ISBN: 9780300246704, 320 pages
    Date: 2023–02–23
  36. By: Martin G\"achter; Elias Hasler; Florian Huber
    Abstract: We extend the existing growth-at-risk (GaR) literature by examining a long time period of 130 years in a time-varying parameter regression model. We identify several important insights for policymakers. First, both the level as well as the determinants of GaR vary significantly over time. Second, the stability of upside risks to GDP growth reported in earlier research is specific to the period known as the Great Moderation, with the distribution of risks being more balanced before the 1970s. Third, the distribution of GDP growth has significantly narrowed since the end of the Bretton Woods system. Fourth, financial stress is always linked to higher downside risks, but it does not affect upside risks. Finally, other risk indicators, such as credit growth and house prices, not only drive downside risks, but also contribute to increased upside risks during boom periods. In this context, the paper also adds to the financial cycle literature by completing the picture of drivers (and risks) for both booms and recessions over time.
    Date: 2023–02
  37. By: Alacevich, Michele
    Abstract: Review of “Political Economy and International Order in Interwar Europe” edited by Alexandre M. Cunha and Carlos Eduardo Suprinyak.
    Date: 2023–02–23
  38. By: Lanata-Briones, Cecilia T.
    Abstract: Review of “America by Numbers: Quantification, Democracy, and the Birth of National Statistics” by Emmanuel Didier
    Date: 2023–02–23
  39. By: Walter Castro; Julio Jorge Elías
    Abstract: The economic concept of Repugnance, developed by Alvin Roth (2007), suggests that some transactions, such as the buy and sale of kidneys for transplantation, are illegal simply because a sufficient number of people find it repugnant. In a repugnant transaction the participants are willing to transact, but third parties disapprove and wish to prevent the transaction. As Roth argued, these could have big consequences in what markets we see and can generate important social costs. For example, banning payments to organ donors is the main cause of the severe organ shortages in virtually all countries (Becker and Elias 2007), and outlawing activities such as abortion or prostitution typically drives them underground, reducing their safety and fueling crime. Could Adam Smith ideas provide a basis for deciding what should, and what should not, be up for sale? In this paper we analyze the economic concept of repugnance and its implications using insights from The Theory of Moral Sentiments and the Wealth of Nations. In terms of Smith, repugnance at the individual level is a moral sentiment. Departing from the idea of the impartial spectator, we analyze whether repugnance should translate into prohibition and affects legislation when the spectator disapproves it and how his judgement could vary across communities and time.
    JEL: B12 D62
    Date: 2022–11
  40. By: Chen, Chien-Hsun
    Abstract: In China, mergers and acquisitions (M&As) have had a long-run impact on companies’ operational and financial rearrangements in the process of the country’s economic restructuring and rebalancing. The vibrancy of China’s M&A market is reflected in the gradual maturity of Chinese companies and the massive commercial opportunities that arose following the phenomenal growth of China’s economy. The initial motives behind Chinese domestic M&As were to save poorly governed state-owned enterprises in what may be termed the “rescue mission”. Most M&As involve state-owned enterprises that play a dominant role in China’s capital markets. The success of Japanese keiretsu and South Korean chaebols has prompted China to develop business groups in its economy to enhance the competitive advantage of Chinese companies through economies of scale and improved company performance. Foreign inbound M&As can monopolize positions in certain industries and destroy a fair competitive environment. This in turn has seriously threatened the existence and growth of Chinese companies.
    Keywords: China; mergers and acquisitions; business strategies; state-owned enterprises
    JEL: M10 M31 M38
    Date: 2023–03–09

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.