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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2023‒03‒27
35 papers chosen by |
| By: | Kabeer Bora |
| Abstract: | The global hegemony of Britain in the 19th century is hardly a disputed fact. As a global hegemon, it oversaw the transfer of surplus from the underdeveloped world to its shores. The transfer of surplus was important in maintaining its status as a hegemon. In this essay, I underline the need for Britain to colonize India, its biggest possession. India’s colonial history has been the subject of a lot of scholarly attention but rarely has the focus shifted from the drain of surplus as a cause of underdevelopment of India to a transfer of surplus from India to Britain as a cause of development of Britain. I shed light on this aspect of global surplus extraction and show empirically that this transfer of surplus was invaluable for the success of the British economy. Marx’s macroeconomics and his well-known law of the falling rate of profit are my main sources of support. Accounting for spurious correlation using Hamilton(1994), I find that an increase in colonial drain by 1% increases the rate of profit of Britain by around 9 percentage points. My findings are corroborated by the several robustness checks I perform, including using different measures of domestic exploitation and a different method in Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). About the whole of the 19th century up until the First World War is included in my period of analysis. |
| Keywords: | Colonial Drain, Rate of Profit, Time Series Analysis, India JEL Classification: N75, B14, N14 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uta:papers:2023_01&r=his |
| By: | Miriam Fritzsche; Nikolaus Wolf |
| Abstract: | Fossil fuels have shaped the European economy since the industrial revolution. In this paper, we analyse the effect of coal and oil on long-run economic growth, exploiting variation at the level of European NUTS-2 and NUTS-3 regions over the last century. We show that an “oil invasion†in the early 1960s turned regional coal abundance from a blessing into a curse, using new detailed data on carboniferous strata as an instrument. Moreover, we show that human capital accumulation was the key mechanism behind this reversal of fortune. Not only did former coal regions fail to accumulate sufficient levels of human capital, but pre-industrial human capital helped declining regions to reinvent themselves. Without sufficient human capital, fossil fuels did never generate sustainable growth. |
| Keywords: | Coal, Oil Invasion, Education, Reinvention, Economic Growth |
| JEL: | O13 Q32 N13 R10 I25 |
| Date: | 2022–11–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0003&r=his |
| By: | Omer Siddique (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics); Abida Naurin (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) |
| Abstract: | In the 13th and 14th centuries, Alauddin Khilji began keeping land records, which is when the history of land records in the Subcontinent began (Ali, 2013). Successive rulers kept on amending land revenue records. For instance, Sher Shah Suri implemented fixed crop rates in the 16th century, greatly enhancing the measuring of land records (Thakur, et al., 2005). The Mughal Empire’s most powerful 17th-century ruler, Akbar, made significant changes to how the land was administered. He registered holdings according to several land classifications and income estates (Ali, 2013). |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:kbrief:2022:91&r=his |
| By: | Ajmal Kakar (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics); Qaisar Iqbal (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) |
| Abstract: | The trend of Quetta Cafes (QCs) strongly relates to the drought in Balochistan; historical and climatological records prove drought is an indefinite natural issue for Balochistan. Moreover, the precipitation data reveals that 18 drought events with an interval of 3.3 years were recorded between 1950-2010, with the most significant and catastrophic drought, lasting 10 years, recorded between 1945-1955. |
| Keywords: | Quetta Cafes, Tea Cafes Chain, |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2022:13&r=his |
| By: | Andreas Link |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how the prehistoric geographic distribution of domesticable transport animal species has contributed to shaping di erences in development. I identify the historic ranges of the ten animal species that are (1) suitable for domestication and (2) suitable for carrying loads. Based on these ranges, I create a measure of the prehistoric presence of domesticable transport animals around the world. The empirical analysis reveals a strong relationship between the historic presence of domesticable transport animals and the emergence of ancient long-distance trade routes and early forms of hierarchy. Historical access to domesticable transport animals also continued to matter in the long run: Pre-industrial ethnic groups living in regions historically home to domesticable transport animals were more involved in trade and had built more complex hierarchical structures. Moreover, these groups developed greater numerical skills, larger levels of labor specialization, and higher levels of class stratification, thus underscoring the broad cultural and developmental impacts exerted by historical access to domesticable transport animals. |
| Keywords: | Domestication, hierarchy, long-distance trade, persistence |
| JEL: | F10 N30 N70 O10 Z10 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bav:wpaper:224_link&r=his |
| By: | Stefano Costalli; Daniele Guariso; Patricia Justino; Andrea Ruggeri |
| Abstract: | We still have limited knowledge about the long-term effects of fascism on European democracies. European countries experienced cycles of violence between the 1960s and 1980s. Can such violence be explained by legacies of mobilization during fascism? We study whether and how the Italian fascist experience of the 1920s affected political violence during the 1970s and 1980s. We created an original dataset of conflictual events at a subnational level in Italy. |
| Keywords: | Conflict, Fascism, Italy, Political violence, Terrorism, Violence |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2023-34&r=his |
| By: | Baran, Cavit (Northwestern University); Chyn, Eric (University of Texas at Austin); Stuart, Bryan (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of the First Great Migration on children. We use the complete count 1940 Census to estimate selection-corrected place effects on education for children of Black migrants. On average, Black children gained 0.8 years of schooling (12 percent) by moving from the South to North. Many counties that had the strongest positive impacts on children during the 1940s offer relatively poor opportunities for Black youth today. Opportunities for Black children were greater in places with more schooling investment, stronger labor market opportunities for Black adults, more social capital, and less crime. |
| Keywords: | Great Migration, human capital, education, place effect |
| JEL: | N32 J15 J24 H75 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15979&r=his |
| By: | Ying Bai; Ruixue Jia; Runnan Wang |
| Abstract: | Can ideas mobilize people into collective action? We provide a positive answer to this question by studying how exposure to the Communist ideology shaped an individual’s choice to join the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) during the party’s formative stage. The individuals we focus on are cadets at the Whampoa Military Academy, who subsequently fought in 20th-century China’s most important wars. Our identification strategy exploits the locality-time-content variation in the circulation of the New Youth magazine—the major platform to promote Communism after the Treaty of Versailles in 1919—as well as the variation in an individual’s location over time. By comparing the Whampoa cadets living in a locality with post-1919 New Youth available against those who had lived in the same locality but missed this channel, we demonstrate that the former were significantly more likely to join the CCP. In future political struggles, those whose party choice was more influenced by this ideology channel were less likely to quit the CCP and more likely to sacrifice their lives. Additionally, we document that family background cannot predict the party choice of these political pioneers but social networks can complement ideology exposure. |
| JEL: | D70 D71 D83 N45 O12 P30 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30947&r=his |
| By: | Eric C. Alston; Lee J. Alston; Bernardo Mueller |
| Abstract: | The New Institutional Economics (NIE) has its early roots in Cliometrics. Cliometrics began with a focus on using neoclassical theory to develop and test hypotheses in economic history. But empirical consideration of economic and political development within and across countries is limited, absent consideration of the institutional context. The NIE as applied in economic history first focused on the roles of transaction costs and property rights. From this micro-institutional perspective, the NIE expanded its focus to the role of institutions and norms on economic development as well as how economic forces along with political institutional variance influences outcomes both within and across countries. This involves considering both forces that impede and promote economic and political convergence across countries as well the forces that determine a transition to a new economic or political trajectory altogether. Testing for the determinants of economic and political development is plagued with omitted variables and endogeneity concerns, a constraint which has recently prompted scholars to draw on complexity theory to further supplement the NIE and Cliometrics. |
| JEL: | B52 F63 N01 P0 P50 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30924&r=his |
| By: | Metin M. Cosgel (University of Connecticut); Thomas J. Miceli (University of Connecticut); Emre Özer (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | The decisive oath is an interesting but little-known element in some legal proceedings, mostly in civil law traditions. It is different from ordinary (testimonial) oaths that are routinely administered to witnesses at trial with the aim of eliciting only truthful testimony, but which are of dubious value in achieving that end. By contrast, a decisive oath can end a lawsuit in cases where the plaintiff has no evidence. We use a simple economic model of litigation to examine the impact of the decisive oath in resolving lawsuits. To test the implications of the model, we focus on the relationship between the stakes of the case and litigation outcomes by using data from the early nineteenth century Ottoman courts. The results show that (1) resolution by trial rather than settlement was more likely as the stakes increased; (2) among cases that did not settle, trial by evidence rather than oath was more likely as the stakes increased; (3) among cases that were not resolved by evidence, plaintiffs were less likely to request an oath as the stakes increased; and (4) among cases where the plaintiff requested an oath, the impact of the stakes on the defendant’s decision to take an oath was ambiguous. Our analysis contributes both to the theoretical literature on the economics of dispute resolution, and to the historical literature on the role of decisive oaths in resolving legal disputes, especially in Islamic societies. |
| Keywords: | Decisive oath, law, dispute resolution, legal procedure, litigation, settlement, trial, evidence, lying, Ottoman law |
| JEL: | D91 K10 K20 K40 N45 P48 Z12 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2023-03&r=his |
| By: | Maximilian Grimm; Òscar Jordà; Moritz Schularick; Alan M. Taylor |
| Abstract: | Do periods of persistently loose monetary policy increase financial fragility and the likelihood of a financial crisis? This is a central question for policymakers, yet the literature does not provide systematic empirical evidence about this link at the aggregate level. In this paper we fill this gap by analyzing long-run historical data. We find that when the stance of monetary policy is accommodative over an extended period, the likelihood of financial turmoil down the road increases considerably. We investigate the causal pathways that lead to this result and argue that credit creation and asset price overheating are important intermediating channels. |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E52 E58 G01 G21 N10 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30958&r=his |
| By: | Richard Sobel (CLERSÉ - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Roswitha Scholz's theory of value-dissociation articulates a feminist perspective with the Marxist current of value criticism. The article proposes a reconstruction of this articulation. It is a question of uncovering the philosophical roots that make it possible to integrate feminism and Marxism without hierarchy between the two, and this, through a strain common to the commodity fetishism and the gender fetishism. The article first proposes to find, in Marx, the deep meaning of the commodity fetishism. The article then proposes to identify the necessary additions beyond Marx to fully integrate gender fetishism into the theory of value-dissociation: through partial but complementary readings of Horkheimer-Adorno and Beauvoir. |
| Abstract: | La théorie de la valeur-dissociation de Roswitha Scholz articule une perspective féministe au courant marxiste de la critique de la valeur. L'article propose une reconstruction de cette articulation. Il s'agit de mettre au jour les racines philosophiques qui permettent d'intégrer féminisme et marxisme sans hiérarchie entre les deux, et ce, à travers une souche commune au fétichisme de la marchandise et au fétichisme du genre. L'article se propose d'abord de retrouver, chez Marx, le sens profond du fétichisme de la marchandise. L'article se propose ensuite de dégager les ajouts nécessaires au-delà de Marx pour intégrer pleinement le fétichisme dans la théorie de la valeur-dissociation : à travers des lectures partielles mais complémentaires de Horkheimer-Adorno et de Beauvoir. |
| Keywords: | Marxism, feminism, value criticism, Frankfurt school, Simone de Beauvoir, critique de la valeur, École de Francfort, Simone De Beauvoir, marxisme, féminisme |
| Date: | 2022–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03919684&r=his |
| By: | Alain Paquet (Université du Québec à Montréal) |
| Abstract: | L’attention portée à l’apport de la pensée macroéconomique dans la conception et la pratique des politiques économiques au Québec a généralement été relativement limitée, surtout à partir des années 1970. Après avoir contextualisé l’évolution de la pensée en macroéconomie et l’émergence du keynésianisme jusque dans les années 1960 au Canada et au Québec, nous traitons des approches et des influences concevables de la pensée économique sur la politique publique québécoise à travers les rôles et périodes marquées par Robert Bourassa, Raymond Garneau, Jacques Parizeau et Bernard Landry entre 1970 et 2003. Pour ce faire, nous mettons en exergue la place qu’ont pu occuper la formation universitaire, les contextes et défis économiques du moment, ainsi que d’autres personnes clés (politiques, fonctionnaires et conseillers) dans la décision publique en matière économique. Des exemples représentatifs associés sont discutés et servent à illustrer la contribution des idées économiques sur la conception et la mise en Å“uvre des politiques. |
| Keywords: | finances publiques, gouvernement du Québec, influences keynésiennes et nonkeynésiennes, macroéconomie, politiques économiques. |
| JEL: | B22 E12 E65 H54 N12 N42 |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bbh:wpaper:22-05&r=his |
| By: | Nelo Magalhães (LADYSS - Laboratoire Dynamiques Sociales et Recomposition des Espaces - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This text aims to explain a paradox: the modest contribution of Regulation Theory to the debates on the Capitalocene. After explaining the changing role of the "environment" in regulationist analyses for nearly 50 years, we argue that they mostly adopt an apolitical definition / perspective of the environment and lack a critical and reflexive approach. In brief, the regulationist framework needs a truly political ecology. |
| Keywords: | Capitalocene, epistemology, environment, political ecology |
| Date: | 2022–09–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03935441&r=his |
| By: | Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Juan Infante; Marta del Rio; Luis A. Gil-Alana |
| Abstract: | This paper uses fractional integration methods to measure the degree of persistence in historical annual data on the world population over the period 1800-2016. The analysis is carried out for the original series, and also for its log transformation and its growth rate. The results indicate that the series considered are highly persistent; in particular, the estimated values of the fractional diffencing parameter are above 1, which implies that shocks have permanent effects. Endogenous break tests detect one main break shortly after WWII. The evidence based on the corresponding sub-sample estimation indicates a sharp fall in the degree of dependence between the observations in the second sub-sample. Although the original data and their log transformation still exhibit explosive behaviour in that sub-sample, the growth rates are mean-reverting, and thus shocks to these series will only have transitory effects; moreover, there is a negative time trend. This has implications for the design of policies aimed at containing population growth. |
| Keywords: | population growth, long memory, fractional integration, time trends |
| JEL: | C22 C40 J11 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10286&r=his |
| By: | Cédric Durand (UNIGE - Université de Genève = University of Geneva, CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Reply to Morozov's 'Critique of Techno-Feudal Reason' E vgeny morozov has provided a salutary critique of recent proposals to conceptualize the social relations of the digital economy-with web users supposedly tied like serfs to tech barons' inescapable domains-by analogy with those of the feudal era. His 'Critique of Techno-Feudal Reason' offers a systematic review of contemporary feudal-speak as a discursive swamp in which, he charges, 'the left has a hard time differentiating itself from the right'-neoliberals like Glen Weyl and Eric Posner, as well as neoreactionaries like Curtis Yarvin and anti-wokite Joel Kotkin, articulating the same 'neo-' or 'techno-feudal' critique as Yanis Varoufakis, Mariana Mazzucato, Robert Kuttner or Jodi Dean. If radical thinkers have embraced feudal imagery as a rhetorical, meme-friendly ploy, Morozov argues that this is testament not to media savviness but to intellectual weakness-'as if the left's theoretical framework can no longer make sense of capitalism without mobilizing the moral language of corruption and perversion.' By shifting its attention from actual capitalist relations to reminiscences of feudalism, it risks letting go its prey to chase a shadow, abandoning its most original and effective angle of attack on exploitative socioeconomic relations-its sophisticated anti-capitalist political-theoretical apparatus. 1 In defining his terms-what makes 'capitalism' capitalism and 'feudalism' feudalism-Morozov reaches back to 1970s debates, in particular Robert Brenner's critique of Immanuel Wallerstein's The Origins of the Modern World System (1974). 2 In Morozov's view, Brenner's distinction |
| Keywords: | technofeudalism, digital, capitalism |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03991895&r=his |
| By: | Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Juan Infante; Marta del Rio; Luis A. Gil-Alana |
| Abstract: | This paper provides estimates of persistence in historical UK data on life expectancy applying fractional integration methods to both an annual series from 1842 to 2019 and a 5-year average from 1543 to 2019. The results indicate that the former exhibits an upward trend and is persistent but mean reverting; the same holds for the latter, though its degree of persistence is higher. Similar results are obtained for the logged values. On the whole, this evidence suggests that the effects of shocks to the series are transitory though persistent, which is useful information for policy makers whose task is to take appropriate measures to increase life expectancy. |
| Keywords: | life expectancy, long memory, fractional integration |
| JEL: | C22 C40 D60 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10287&r=his |
| By: | Edvinsson, Rodney (Stockholm University); Karlsson, Sune (Örebro University School of Business); Österholm, Pär (Örebro University School of Business) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we add new evidence to a long-debated macroeconomic question, namely whether money growth has predictive power for inflation or, put differently, whether money growth Granger causes inflation. We use a historical dataset – consisting of annual Swedish data on money growth and inflation ranging from 1620 to 2021 – and employ state-of-the-art Bayesian estimation methods. Specifically, we employ VAR models with drifting parameters and stochastic volatility which are used to conduct analysis both within- and out-of-sample. Our results indicate that the within-sample analysis – based on marginal likelihoods – provides strong evidence in favour of money growth Granger causing inflation. This strong evidence is, however, not reflected in our out-of-sample analysis, as it does not translate into a corresponding improvement in forecast accuracy. |
| Keywords: | Time-varying parameters; Stochastic volatility; Out-of-sample forecasts |
| JEL: | E31 E37 E47 E51 N13 |
| Date: | 2023–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2023_003&r=his |
| By: | Marius Klein; Ferdinand Rauch |
| Abstract: | We revisit the natural experiments of division and unification of Germany now that more time has passed and more data have become available. We show that local market access shocks are not symmetric in time. The negative shock to local market access following the division of Germany lead to a fast and strong downward adjustment of the size of West-German cities near the new border. In contrast, the positive shock of reunification did not lead to any change in their relative size, even three decades after the German reunification. |
| Keywords: | market access, iron curtain |
| JEL: | F15 J61 N94 R12 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10279&r=his |
| By: | Henri-Louis Vedie |
| Abstract: | En attribuant le prix Nobel d'économie 2022 à Ben S. Bernanke, Douglas W. Diamond et Philip H. Dybvig, le jury Nobel a voulu distinguer des travaux, remontant aux années 1980, qui permettent de mieux comprendre l'implication des banques dans les crises. Travaux pionniers, également, dans l'élaboration d'une théorie bancaire, où l'analyse historique est présente avec Ben S. Bernanke qui a longuement étudié le rôle des banques dans la crise de 1929, afin de ne pas renouveler les erreurs commises dans la gestion de la crise de 2008, où il sera en première ligne à la tête de la Réserve fédérale des États-Unis (FED).Travaux, enfin, comme ceux de Douglas Diamond et de Philip Dybvig qui, avec le modèle « Diamond-Dybvig », vont théoriser les paniques bancaires et les liens les conduisant au retrait massif des dépôts et aux crises économiques. Dans un mode en crise, où le système bancaire est particulièrement mis à l'épreuve, le choix des Nobel 2022 nous paraît très pertinent. |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb58-22&r=his |
| By: | Alexandre RAMBAUD |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that the mainstream usage of ‘natural capital’ (NC) is incompatible with an ecological approach. It argues that accounting is relevant for (re)structuring the debate around NC and implementing an alternative approach to NC that works with an ecological perspective.It first performs a ‘Latourian’ anthropological analysis of the mainstream notion of capital, resituated in the Modern cosmology, as well as the notion of ‘ecology’. It goes on to propose an ‘accounting’ study of capital with the objective of suggesting an alternative vision of NC and underlines its potential. The study shows that the mainstream use of NC is incompatible with an ecological approach, even in the case of strong sustainability. Mainstream NC is associated with ‘capital as a debit concept’, but a credit-based approach to NC would align it better with an ecological perspective. The paper renews the critical analysis of NC and of strong/weak sustainability. It opens a potential path of research in ecological accounting based on an alternative perspective on NC. It proposes an extension of the ‘classical’ accounting practices in historical costs to a more ecological vision of NC, linking accounting practices understood by current corporate stakeholders to ecological requirements. |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2023–03–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en15210&r=his |
| By: | Narayana R. Kocherlakota |
| Abstract: | This paper uses evidence from the Federal Open Market Committee’s Summary of Economic Projections to show that US monetary policymakers have objectives over unemployment and inflation outcomes that are not well-approximated through a conventional quadratic loss function. Rather, policymakers derive material costs (benefits) from overshooting (undershooting) their long-run inflation and unemployment goals. The trade-off between the resultant downward tilts in unemployment and inflation played a key role in shaping the evolution of monetary policy choices since the Great Recession. |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31003&r=his |
| By: | Katarzyna Sałach-Dróżdż (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Science) |
| Abstract: | There are conflicting theories about whether individuals like or dislike inequality, or in other words, whether living in an unequal country increases or decreases their subjective well-being. The empirical literature has also not yet reached a consensus. In this paper, we add a new perspective to the inequality-happiness puzzle. First, we study not only income inequality, but also wealth inequality, which has so far been overlooked in the happiness literature. Second, we reach beyond the usually studied Gini coefficient and top income shares, looking also at the other parts of income or wealth distribution. Using data from the integrated World Values Surveys and European Values Surveys for over 50 countries, matched with World Inequality Database data over the years 1981-2020, we find that individuals are happier with increases in the top 10% and top 1% shares of wealth and less happy with increases in the middle 40% share of either wealth or pre-tax income. Increasing the bottom 50% share of after-tax income also makes individuals happier, suggesting that they favor income redistribution. We offer possible explanations for these findings. |
| Keywords: | income inequality, wealth inequality, happiness, subjective well-being, life satisfaction |
| JEL: | D31 D63 I31 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2023-04&r=his |
| By: | Radoslaw Trojanek |
| Abstract: | Using a micro-level dataset of over 5 million listings, house price indexes for Poland over the period 1996 to 2021 was constructed. The offer data for the biggest cities comes from two different sources. The earlier data were obtained from archival advertisements in photocopies, photographs or periodicals, then digitally reproduced and arranged in a database. The data from 2009 were collected from advertising portals (gratka.pl / otodom.pl) several times a quarter. The hedonic indices were determined for each city and then aggregated. The constructed index has some limitations but provides information on the housing market in Poland for much longer than officially published. |
| Keywords: | Hedonic methods; House price index; housing market; Poland |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_111&r=his |
| By: | Hershbein, Brad J. (Upjohn Institute for Employment Research); Stuart, Bryan (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how U.S. local labor markets respond to employment losses that occur during recessions. Following recessions from 1973 through 2009, we find that areas that lose more jobs during the recession experience persistent relative declines in employment and population. Most importantly, these local labor markets also experience persistent decreases in the employment-population ratio, earnings per capita, and earnings per worker. Our results imply that limited population responses result in longer-lasting consequences for local labor markets than previously thought, and that recessions are followed by persistent reallocation of employment across space. |
| Keywords: | local labor markets, recessions, employment rates, migration |
| JEL: | J21 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15984&r=his |
| By: | Jonas Jessen; Sophia Schmitz; Felix Weinhardt |
| Abstract: | We study the local evolution of female labour supply and cultural norms in West Germany in reaction to the sudden presence of East Germans who migrated to the West after reunification. These migrants grew up with high rates of maternal employment, whereas West German families mostly followed the traditional breadwinner-housewife model. We find that West German women increase their labour supply and that this holds within households. We provide additional evidence on stated gender norms, West-East friendships, intermarriage, and child care infrastructure. The dynamic evolution of the local effects on labour supply is best explained by local cultural learning and endogenous child care infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | cultural norms, local learning, gender, immigration |
| JEL: | J16 J21 D1 |
| Date: | 2022–11–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0001&r=his |
| By: | Guillaume l'Oeillet (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Since the great financial crisis, the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) rouses interests in political, media and academic area. In the ensuing Keynesian moment, the MMT has emerged from the confidentiality to advocate a permanent fiscal dominance in opposition to the consensus built toward a politically independent monetary policy. MMT has however been widely criticised by mainstream economists but also by the post-keynesian school from which it comes. The most vehement attacks to deny the scientific nature of the theory and to confine it to a political movement belonging to the left wing of the US democrats. More sophisticated critics tackle theorical foundation and empirical evidences of the MMT to contest their recommendations. This paper provides an overview of those critical points of view and contributes to the chorus of criticism by raising a failing political economy. |
| Abstract: | Depuis la grande crise financière, la Théorie Moderne de la Monnaie (TMM) suscite l'intérêt des milieux politique, médiatique et académique. Le « moment » keynésien qui a suivi cette crise a sorti d'une relative confidentialité ce courant de pensée qui défend un retour permanent de la dominance budgétaire à rebours du consensus autour d'une politique monétaire indépendante du pouvoir politique. Toutefois, la TMM fait l'objet de vives attaques de la part d'économistes dits de l'offre, de la synthèse voire même post-keynésiens dont la TMM est pourtant réputée proche. Les points de vue les plus virulents contestent le caractère scientifique de la TMM et la réduisent à un mouvement politique assimilable à l'aile radicale du parti démocrate américain. D'autres critiques plus élaborées s'attellent à démontrer les limites théoriques et empiriques des préconisations de la TMM. Cet article propose une synthèse des critiques adressées à la TMM et apporte une contribution en questionnant l'économie politique de la théorie. |
| Keywords: | Modern Monetary Theory, Fiscal dominance, Monetary economics, Political Economy, Théorie Monétaire Moderne, Dominance budgétaire, Monnaie, Economie politique |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03854814&r=his |
| By: | Fabio Cerina (University of Cagliari, CRENOS - University of Cagliari); Elisa Dienesch (IEP Aix-en-Provence - Sciences Po Aix - Institut d'études politiques d'Aix-en-Provence, AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Alessio Moro (University of Cagliari); Michelle Rendall (Monash university, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR) |
| Abstract: | We document the emergence of spatial polarization in the U.S. during the 1980-2008 period. This phenomenon is characterised by stronger employment polarization in larger cities, both at the occupational and the worker level. We quantitatively evaluate the role of technology in generating these patterns by constructing and calibrating a spatial equilibrium model. We find that faster skill-biased technological change in larger cities can account for a substantial fraction of spatial polarization in the U.S. Counterfactual exercises suggest that the differential increase in the share of low-skilled workers across city size is due mainly to the large demand by high-skilled workers for low-skilled services and to a smaller extent to the higher complementarity between low- and high-skilled workers in production relative to middle-skilled workers. |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03788208&r=his |
| By: | Laurie Bréban (PHARE - Philosophie, Histoire et Analyse des Représentations Économiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | After having made it explicit that Smithian sympathy, strictly speaking, possesses an emotional content, I show, in the first section of the paper, that it relies on a complex cognitive process (the "imaginary change of situation") which enables one to conceive of others' sentiments. Of course, Smith's aim, with his system of sympathy, was not to explain how we manage to conceive of others' feelings but rather how we come to be affected by them. This cognitive process constitutes, therefore, just one step, the next step being to highlight how we move from the cognitive to the emotional realm. I argue that such a movement relies on the concept of "force of conception" which allows for our conception of others' feelings to give rise to an emotion being experienced that is related to others' situations. In the second section, I offer a characterization of the emotional result that arises from Smith's imaginary change of situation. I do so by highlighting the influence of the cognitive realm on the emotional realm, through the role of the force of conception. After having highlighted two properties of Smith's imaginary change of situation [(i) the conception bias and (ii) the weakness of conception], I show that it is not only possible but that it is also taken for granted that this imaginary change of situation leads the spectator to feel an emotion distinct from the one felt by the person with whom he identifies. To conclude, I highlight the conditions under which the emotional result of Smith's imaginary change of situation can properly be called "sympathy". I come to the conclusion that Smithian sympathy does consist in a correspondence of sentiments between the sympathizer and the person he is sympathizing with. It shall be argued that the question of the content of sympathy does not lie so much in knowing whether it is a correspondence of sentiments but rather in knowing what Smith means by correspondence? |
| Keywords: | Adam Smith, Sympathy, Cognition, Emotions, Croyances, Imagination, Identification |
| Date: | 2022–12–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03904227&r=his |
| By: | Philippe Boyer (Académie d'Agriculture de France); Amandine Hourt (CEP - Centre d'études et de prospective - Ministère de l'agriculture, de l'agroalimentaire et de la forêt); Philippe Pacquotte (FranceAgriMer) |
| Abstract: | The French "Observatory of formation or food prices an margins was created in 2010, by the Law of Modernization of Agriculture and Fisheries. This tool, which mobilizes statistical and economic data, aims to facilitate consultation and the search for a shared diagnosis between stakeholders in the sectors and to contribute to the development of public policies through the publication of monitoring and analysis. After the publication of its eleventh annual report in June 2022, this note reviews the conditions of its creation, and its activities and achievements. Since the 1950s, there have been many debates and studies in France about the differences between agricultural producer prices and consumer prices. More recently, the creation of the French "Observatory on formation or food prices an margins" (OFPM) has made it possible to analyse the transmission of prices and the distribution of value in agri-food chains. These topics proved to be central during the "Etats Généraux de l'Alimentation" (EGAlim) (a national government consultation on agriculture and food) in 2017 and the preparatory discussions of the Laws about food and agriculture named EGalim (2018) and EGalim 2 (2021). In other countries, the significance of these issues varies and devices similar to the OFPM are sometimes deployed: "Food dollar "in the United States, "Observatorio de la cadena alimentaria" in Spain, etc. Their work, which respond to public orders, are aimed at consumers, economic stakehorders, elected officials and the administration. Their methods are microeconomic (business expenses and results) or macroeconomic (creation and distribution of value added). The OFPM combines these two approaches. In the first part of this paper, the events and conditions of its creation are recalled. The following section presents some of its work and results, and the last section discusses the challenges facing the OFPM today. |
| Abstract: | L'Observatoire de la formation des prix et des marges des produits alimentaires (OFPM) : un outil au service des professionnels et de l'action publique L'OFPM a été créé en 2010, par la loi de modernisation de l'agriculture et de la pêche. Cet outil, qui mobilise données statistiques et économiques, vise à faciliter la concertation et la recherche d'un diagnostic partagé entre acteurs des filières et à contribuer à l'élaboration des politiques publiques par la publication de suivis et d'analyses. Après la publication de son onzième rapport annuel, en juin 2022, cette note revient sur les conditions de sa création, et sur ses activités et réalisations. Depuis les années 1950, de nombreux débats et travaux existent en France sur les écarts entre prix agricoles à la production et prix à la consommation. Plus récemment, la création de l'Observatoire de la formation des prix et des marges des produits alimentaires (OFPM) a permis d'analyser la transmission des prix 1 et la répartition de la valeur dans les chaînes agroalimentaires. Ces sujets se sont révélés centraux lors des États généraux de l'alimentation (2017) et des discussions préparatoires des lois EGalim (2018) et EGalim 2 (2021). Dans d'autres pays, la prégnance de ces questions varie et des dispositifs analogues à l'OFPM sont parfois déployés : Food dollar aux États-Unis, Observatorio de la cadena alimentaria en Espagne, etc. Leurs travaux, qui répondent à des commandes publiques, sont à destination des consommateurs, des acteurs économiques, des élus et de l'administration. Ils ont une dimension microéconomique (charges et résultats des entreprises) ou macroéconomique (création et répartition de la valeur ajoutée). L'OFPM combine ces deux approches. Dans la première partie de cette note sont rappelés les événements et conditions de sa création. La partie suivante présente quelques uns de ses travaux et résultats, puis la dernière évoque les défis auxquels est confronté l'OFPM aujourd'hui. |
| Keywords: | food chain, value added, agricultural prices, food prices, agricultural policy, chaine alimentaire, valeur ajoutée, prix agricoles, prix alimentaires, politique agricole |
| Date: | 2022–12–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03902538&r=his |
| By: | Hlongwane, Nyiko Worship; Daw, Olebogeng David; Sithole, Mixo Sweetness |
| Abstract: | The study analysed renewable electricity generation and government expenditure on economic growth of South Africa and Botswana. The study utilizes time series data from 1980 to 2021 collected from the World Bank and International Energy. The study performed the DF-GLS and PP unit root test, ARDL Bounds tests and related diagnostics tests. Empirical evidence revealed that renewable electricity generation has a favourable impact in South Africa and a detrimental effect in Botswana on economic growth. The study only found long run relationship between the variables in South Africa with the aid of the bounds test results. Related policies were given in the study based on statistical evidence. |
| Keywords: | Renewable Electricity Generation Government Expenditure Economic Growth South Africa Botswana |
| JEL: | O4 Q4 Q42 |
| Date: | 2023–01–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116497&r=his |
| By: | Estopace, Katha Ma-i M.; Abrigo, Michael R.M.; Tam, Zhandra C.; Alicante, Kean Norbie F. |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a new comprehensive and consistent set of public transfer accounts, disaggregated by age and major government programs from 1950 to 2020. Based on these public transfer accounts, we find that except for some programs, particularly social health insurance and old-age pensions, the Philippines’ public transfer system as a whole is fiscally sustainable, with cumulative lifetime net contributions due to government across cohorts. The implied rates of return from key social protection programs also approximate market interest rates, especially when these programs are taken together, suggesting that the country’s public transfer system closely mimics competitive market outcomes. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | public sector;demographic change;National Transfer Account;intergenerational transfers;intergenerational equity;fiscal sustainability |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2022-57&r=his |
| By: | Mduduzi Biyase (College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, University of Johannesburg); Yourishaa Naidoo (College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, University of Johannesburg) |
| Abstract: | Investigating the remittance-financial development relationship is an ongoing endeavor among economists and policy makers. Building and improving on the existing work, this study considers the possibility that the relation between remittances and financial development is potentially asymmetric. This study applies the linear ARDL and captures the possibility of an asymmetrical relationship by applying the non-linear Autoregressive Model (NARDL). Using NARDL, an attempt is made to estimate the short-run and long-run asymmetric responses of financial development through positive and negative partial sum decompositions of changes in remittances. To assess the robustness of the ARDL and NARDL estimates, a battery of long-run robustness tests were employed, including the linear and nonlinear versions of the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS). Annual data series from 1980 to 2017, derived from the World Development Indicators, Fred Economic data and Penn World Tables were used for this study. The ARDL results reveal a positive and significant impact of remittances on financial development, whereas NARDL estimations suggest a both positive and negative shock of remittances on financial development in the long run: a percentage (%) increase in the remittances brings about 0.121568 percent increase in financial development, whereas a one-percent decrease in remittances produces a 0.33363 percent decrease in financial development. |
| Keywords: | remittances; financial development; domestic credit |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ady:wpaper:edwrg-02-2023&r=his |
| By: | Manudeep Bhuller; Tarjei Havnes; Jeremy McCauley; Magne Mogstad |
| Abstract: | Combining comprehensive data from the Norwegian media market on newspaper circulation, readership, revenues, factor inputs, and product characteristics with plausibly exogenous variation in the availability and adoption of broadband internet, this paper provides causal evidence on how the internet affected the traditional print media market. Household adoption of broadband internet triggered large reductions in print readership and circulation and equally large increases in online news readership. Despite strong substitution from print to online news consumption, newspaper firms’ revenues fell by almost 30%. Newspaper firms responded by dramatically cutting costs, either by shedding labor inputs or by reducing the physical size of newspaper sheets, and in doing so avoided meaningful losses in profits. The printed newspaper product available to customers also changed, as newspapers shifted content away from tabloid to more serious news. This paper offers a case study on how an adverse technology shock transmits through firms with multiple margins of adjustment, and provides an explanation for the economic resilience of newspapers. |
| JEL: | L11 L82 L86 O33 R22 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30939&r=his |
| By: | Lucas Cain; Danae Hernandez-Cortes; Christopher Timmins; Paige Weber |
| Abstract: | This review synthesizes economics-oriented research in environmental justice with a focus on the last decade. We first categorize this literature into broad areas of inquiry and review main findings. Then, we review recent advances in data and methodologies that have allowed for new study designs and research questions. After identifying breakthroughs, we offer some guidance on how to continue to advance research in this area. |
| Keywords: | environmental justice, procedural justice, equity, distributional impacts |
| JEL: | Q56 Q53 Q54 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10283&r=his |