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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2023‒02‒27
33 papers chosen by |
| By: | Ivo Maes (Chaire Robert Triffin, Université catholique de Louvain & ICHEC Brussels Management School); Ilaria Pasotti (Consultant at Archivio Storico Intesa Sanpaolo) |
| Abstract: | Robert Triffin (1911-1993) was one of the main protagonists in the international monetary debates in the postwar period. He became famous with his book Gold and the Dollar Crisis, published in 1960, in which he predicted the end of the Bretton Woods system. In his analysis there, Triffin was very much marked by the breakdown of the gold exchange standard in the early 1930s. In his view, the growth of foreign exchange reserves after World War Two repeated, but on a much larger scale, their similar expansion after the First World War. Triffin argued that the gold exchange standard had been a highly fragile construction as funds could move in and out due to changes in relative interest rates and/or changes in exchange rate expectations. The focus of this paper is on Triffin’s analysis of the sterling devaluation of 1931 throughout his writings, from his early articles on the 1935 devaluation of the Belgian franc to his writings after the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system. The aim is twofold: to provide an assessment of Triffin’s view of the interwar period and assess the significance of his analysis of the interwar period for his view on the Bretton Woods system. |
| Keywords: | : Robert Triffin, Bretton Woods system, gold exchange standard, pound sterling, Triffin dilemma |
| JEL: | A11 B22 B31 E30 E50 F02 F32 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:202301-431&r=his |
| By: | Mr. Luis Ignacio Jácome; Samuel Pienknagura |
| Abstract: | We study the link between central bank independence and inflation by providing narrative and empiricial evidence based on Latin America’s experience over the past 100 years. We present a novel historical dataset of central bank independence for 17 Latin American countries and recount the rocky journey traveled by Latin America to achieve central bank independence and price stability. After their creation as independent institutions, central bank independence was eroded in the 1930s at the time of the Great Depression and following the abandonement of the gold exchange standard. Then, by the 1940s, central banks turned into de facto development banks under the aegis of governments, sawing the seeds for high inflation. It took the high inflation episodes of the 1970s and 1980s and the associated major decline in real income, and growing social discontent, to grant central banks political and operational independence to focus on fighting inflation starting in the 1990s. The empirical evidence confirms the strong negative association between central bank independence and inflation and finds that improvements in independence result in a steady decline in inflation. It also shows that high levels of central bank independence are associated with reductions in the likelihood of high inflation episodes, especially when accompanied by reductions in central bank financing to the central government. |
| Keywords: | Central Bank Independence; Inflation; Latin America; inflation episode; independence result; CBI index; gold exchange; finance government expenditure; inflation distribution; executive branch; fiscal dominance; country level; inflation expectation; term of office; credit to the government; inflation inertia; Latin American country; Central bank autonomy; Central bank legislation; Bank credit; Central bank organization; Central America; South America |
| Date: | 2022–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/186&r=his |
| By: | Štěpán Mikula (Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic); Tommaso Reggiani (Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Cardiff, United Kingdom, Sapienza University of Rome, Italy); Fabio Sabatini (Sapienza University of Rome, Italy, IZA, Bonn, Germany) |
| Abstract: | We exploit a historical experiment that occurred in Czechoslovakia after World War Two to study the drivers of social capital accumulation in an extremely unfa- vorable environment. Between 1945 and 1948, the Sudetenland became the scene of ethnic cleansing, with the expulsion of nearly three million German speakers and the simultaneous influx of nearly two million resettlers. Focusing on the areas where at least 90% of the population was forced to leave, we show that the municipalities hosting a church built before 1945 developed significantly higher social capital under the communist rule, which persisted after the dissolution of Czechoslovakia and the current days. |
| Keywords: | Institutions, migration, conflict, social capital, religion, transition countries |
| JEL: | D74 L31 N24 N44 N94 O15 Z12 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mub:wpaper:2023-03&r=his |
| By: | Anson, Michael (Bank of England); Bennett, Michael D. (University of Sheffield) |
| Abstract: | On 28 August 1833 Parliament passed legislation that abolished slavery within the British Empire, emancipating more than 800, 000 enslaved Africans. As part of the compromise that helped to secure abolition, the British government agreed a generous compensation package of £20 million to slave-owners for the loss of their ‘property’. The Bank of England administered the payment of slavery compensation on behalf of the British government. Using records held in the Bank’s Archive, a data set of 13, 500 unique transactions has been produced which details the collection of £3.4 million of compensation awarded in the form of government stock (3.5% Reduced Annuities). We shed new light on the compensation process by deploying this data set to analyse who actually held the Reduced Annuities in the books of the Bank of England, and for how long the stock was kept. While slave-owners were the main beneficiaries of the compensation process, our analysis shows that there were also other groups who gained through their roles as intermediaries. These agents sought to profit from the business opportunity presented by the moment of compensation in the mid-1830s by facilitating the collection of compensation awards on behalf of slave-owners and charging commission fees for their services. The results show that just 10 individual account names had over 8, 000 transactions totalling £2.2 million. The largest agents were partners in London banks and merchant firms that had pre-existing commercial ties to the colonies that received compensation in Reduced Annuities (Cape of Good Hope, Mauritius, and the Virgin Islands). Our analysis also shows that this stock was quickly sold, meaning that compensation awards made in Reduced Annuities were converted into cash. By 1844, almost none of the £3.4 million in compensation was still held as Reduced Annuities by those to whom it had been awarded, or by those who had collected it. All of this provides further evidence for the strong links between financial institutions in the City of London, the capital generated through the transatlantic slavery economy, and the compensation process during the 1830s. |
| Keywords: | Business history; financial history; colonialism; slavery |
| JEL: | F54 N23 N83 |
| Date: | 2022–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:1006&r=his |
| By: | Laurent Loty (CELLF - Centre d’étude de la langue et des littératures françaises - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The idea of the optimum plays a major role in many scientific and political domains, while fiction tends to confront it. I examine it here in light of its historical origins in theological optimism (God created "the best of all possible worlds"), the subject of my 1995 dissertation in the history of optimism from its emergence in the early eighteenth century to its seeming disappearance during the French Revolution. If the theme of the omnipresent optimum is difficult to perceive now, it is because the history of optimism, one of the most consequential ideologies ever to have existed, is also the history of its occultation. This ideology, all the more powerful in being embedded in a blind spot, is disseminated through apparently secular discourses and fields of knowledge. Optimism is a fatalism. It also takes the form of an economic fatalism : society or nature function providentially or naturally at their optimum, or reach their optimum in historical time. Yet the idea of the optimum can also inspire powerful heuristic hypotheses in sciences emancipated from theology, or progressive political actions seeking an optimum. As for fictions they either corroborate optimism (or pessimism, the inverted double of optimisme), or they invent instead, as in Diderot's Jacques le Fataliste, forms of writing and thought that escape this ideology. Investigation into the optimum will permit discovery of a vast continent of our culture along with its major investments. It could constitute a multi-disciplinary research program covering the modern period from the eighteenth century to today. |
| Abstract: | L'idée d'optimum joue un rôle majeur dans de nombreux domaines scientifiques et politiques, tandis que les fictions s'en saisissent pour s'y confronter. Je l'examine ici à partir de l'optimisme théologique qui est à son origine (Dieu a créé le monde à l'optimum), grâce à l'enquête que j'ai menée, dans une thèse de 1995, depuis l'émergence de cette doctrine au début du XVIIIe siècle, jusqu'à son apparente disparition pendant la Révolution française. Si le thème de l'optimum, omniprésent depuis, est si difficile à déceler aujourd'hui, c'est que l'histoire de l'optimisme, une des plus importantes idéologies qui ait existé, est aussi l'histoire de son occultation. Cette idéologie, d'autant plus puissante qu'elle est une idéologie en angle mort, s'est transférée dans des discours et savoirs apparemment sécularisés. L'optimisme est un fatalisme, une incitation à se soumettre au meilleur des mondes. Il prend aussi la forme d'un fatalisme économique : la nature ou la société fonctionnent providentiellement ou naturellement à l'optimum, ou s'optimisent historiquement. Or, l'idée d'optimum peut aussi inspirer de puissantes hypothèses heuristiques à des sciences émancipées de la théologie, ou à des actions politiques en vue d'une optimisation. Quant aux fictions, elles confirment l'optimisme (ou son double, le pessimisme), ou inventent au contraire, comme Jacques le Fataliste de Diderot, des formes d'écriture et de pensée qui échappent à cette idéologie. Enquêter sur l'optimum permet ainsi de découvrir un continent immense de notre culture ainsi que des enjeux majeurs, et pourrait constituer un vaste programme de recherche pluridisciplinaire du XVIIIe siècle à aujourd'hui. |
| Date: | 2023–01–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03928757&r=his |
| By: | Horrell, Sara |
| Abstract: | Existing long-run consumer price indices for England rely on a fixed consumption basket. Here we construct a methodologically improved, chained-Laspeyres price index for ordinary households based on their changing expenditure patterns between 1260 and 1869. Rather than offering a revisionist perspective on long-run costs, it confirms the broad accuracy of existing indices for the pre-industrial period. The dominant dependence of the key items of expenditure on agricultural, particularly arable, prices explains this finding. The industrial period introduced a new dynamic. The shift in household expenditure towards imported groceries and manufactured goods allowed more substitution in response to relative price and income changes. Adding the current series to those chained-Laspeyres indices available for later periods provides a CPI for ordinary households in England over nearly eight centuries, 1260 to the present day. |
| Keywords: | consumer price index; consumption; household expenditure; living standards; England; long-run |
| JEL: | D10 D12 |
| Date: | 2023–01–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:117518&r=his |
| By: | Avner Greif (Stanford University); Jared Rubin (Chapman University) |
| Abstract: | This paper highlights the importance of endogenous changes in the foundations of legitimacy for political regimes. Specifically, it highlights the central role of legitimacy changes in the rise of constitutional monarchy in England. It first highlights the limitations of the consensus view regarding this transition, which claims that Parliament’s military power enabled it to force constitutional monarchy on the Crown after 1688. It then turns to define legitimacy and briefly elaborates a theoretical framework enabling a historical study of this unobservable variable. The third and primary section substantiates that the low-legitimacy, post-Reformation Tudor monarchs of the 16th century promoted Parliament to enhance their legitimacy, thereby changing the legislative process from the Crown-and-Parliament to the Crown-in-Parliament that still prevails in England. |
| Keywords: | political legitimacy, England, Reformation, Parliament, constitutional governance |
| JEL: | N44 N33 D02 D73 P48 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chu:wpaper:23-01&r=his |
| By: | Mitchener, Kris James (Santa Clara University CASBS, CAGE, CEPR, CESifo and NBER); Monnet, Eric (Paris School of Economics EHESS and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | Because of secrecy, little is known about the political economy of central bank lending. Utilizing a novel, hand-collected historical daily dataset on loans to commercial banks, we analyze how personal connections matter for lending of last resort, highlighting the importance of governance for this core function of central banks. We show that, when faced with a banking panic in November 1930, the Banque de France (BdF) lent selectively rather than broadly, providing substantially more liquidity to connected banks – those whose board members were BdF shareholders. The BdF’s selective lending policy failed to internalize a negative externality – that lending would be insufficient to arrest the panic and that distress via contagion would spillover to connected banks. Connected lending of last resort fueled the worst banking crisis in French history, caused an unprecedented government bailout of the central bank, and resulted in loss of shareholder control over the central bank. |
| Keywords: | Lender of last resort, fiscal backing, central-bank solvency, central-bank design, banking crises, central bank independence, Banque de France, Great Depression JEL Classification: E44, E58, G01, G32, G33, G38, N14, N24 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:651&r=his |
| By: | Sascha O. Becker (Monash University and University of Warwick); Volker Lindenthal (LMU Munich); Sharun Mukand (University of Warwick); Fabian Waldinger (LMU Munich) |
| Abstract: | We study the role of professional networks in facilitating emigration of Jewish academics dismissed from their positions by the Nazi government. We use individual-level exogenous variation in the timing of dismissals to estimate causal effects. Academics with more ties to early émigrés (emigrated 1933-1934) were more likely to emigrate. Early émigrés functioned as "bridging nodes" that facilitated emigration to their own destination. We also provide evidence of decay in social ties over time and show that professional networks transmit information that is not publicly observable. Finally, we study the relative importance of three types (family, community, professional) of social networks. |
| Keywords: | professional networks; high-skilled emigration; Nazi Germany; Jewish academics; universities; |
| JEL: | I20 I23 I28 J15 J24 N30 N34 N40 N44 |
| Date: | 2023–01–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:370&r=his |
| By: | Adelaide Baronchelli (Department of Economics (University of Verona)); Roberto Ricciuti (Department of Economics (University of Verona)); Mattia Viale (Department of Economics (University of Verona)) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect that the plague in 1348 had on the structure of power in Venice. Using data from “The Rulers of Venice, 1332-1524” dataset, we conceptualize the Venetian structure of power as a two-mode network where relevant political houses are associated with the offices their members were elected. We find that, after the shock of the Black Death, the major houses were able to cling to power and even increase their importance. |
| Keywords: | Political elite; Economic elite; Black Death; Venice. |
| JEL: | N43 C45 D71 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ver:wpaper:01/2023&r=his |
| By: | Cardullo, Gabriele; Conti, Maurizio; Ricci, Andrea; Scicchitano, Sergio; Sulis, Giovanni |
| Abstract: | We explore the long run determinants of current differences in the degree of cooperative labor relations at local level. We do this by estimating the causal effect of the medieval communes -that were established in certain cities in Centre-Northern Italy towards the end of the 11th century- and that contributed to the emergence of a cooperative attitude in the population on various proxies for current cooperative labor relations. Conditional on a large set of firm and municipality level controls, as well as a full set of province fixed effects, we find that firms located in municipalities that had been a free medieval commune in the past, have higher current probabilities to adopt two-tier bargaining structures and to be unionized. We also report IV and propensity score estimates that confirm our main results. |
| Keywords: | Industrial relations, Two-Tier Bargaining, Unions, Cooperation, Persistence |
| JEL: | J50 J53 J59 N00 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1232&r=his |
| By: | Gutiérrez, José Manuel; Quiroga Valle, Gloria |
| Abstract: | This article considers the dynamics of Spanish literacy in the period 1860-1910, characterized by local councils’ responsibility of public elementary education. To this end, it is built a harmonized series of the literacy of the population aged ten or over, disaggregated by sex and province. Marked spatial differences and a very large gender gap can be observed. Five clusters are determined according to the male literacy rates of the provinces in 1860; these clusters prove to have explanatory power all along the period and for both sexes. A parsimonious statistical model of the evolution of male literacy during the period, introducing linguistics variables, shows a considerable temporal stability of the spatial distribution of male literacy. The model of the evolution of female literacy presents similarities with that of male literacy, although now the initial state (in 1860) is not described by female literacy, but yet by male literacy. All in all, the evolution of literacy in Spain between 1860 and 1910 did not follow the spatial pattern of the economic modernization process. Besides, there was no correlation between birth rates and literacy rates of children, for both sexes, and the same can be said of the correlation between urbanization and literacy. Considering the West European context, the Spanish literacy process during the period 1860-1910 was a failure, except for the geographical area of the first cluster. |
| Keywords: | Literacy, Spain, nineteenth century, gender gap, spatial distribution |
| JEL: | N3 |
| Date: | 2023–02–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116235&r=his |
| By: | Kenny, Sean; Ögren, Anders; Zhao, Liang |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the Swedish banking crisis (1919-26) that materialized as post war deflation replaced wartime inflation (1914-18). Inspired by Fisher's 'debt deflation theory', we employ survival analysis to 'predict' which banks would fail, given certain ex-ante bank characteristics. Our tests support the theory; maturity structures mattered most in a regime of falling prices, with vulnerable shorter-term customer loans and bank liabilities representing the most consistent cause of bank distress in the crisis. Similarly, stronger growth in i) leverage, ii) weaker collateral loans and iii) foreign borrowing during the boom were all associated with bank failure in post-war Sweden (1919-26). |
| Keywords: | banking crisis, survival analysis, early warning indicators, debt deflation, maturity mismatch, Sweden |
| JEL: | E58 G01 G21 G28 N24 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:202303&r=his |
| By: | Cardullo, Gabriele (University of Genova); Conti, Maurizio (University of Genova); Ricci, Andrea (INAPP – Institute for Public Policy Analysis); Scicchitano, Sergio (INAPP – Institute for Public Policy Analysis); Sulis, Giovanni (University of Cagliari) |
| Abstract: | We explore the long run determinants of current differences in the degree of cooperative labor relations at local level. We do this by estimating the causal effect of the medieval communes - that were established in certain cities in Centre-Northern Italy towards the end of the 11th century - and that contributed to the emergence of a cooperative attitude in the population on various proxies for current cooperative labor relations. Conditional on a large set of firm and municipality level controls, as well as a full set of province fixed effects, we find that firms located in municipalities that had been a free medieval commune in the past, have higher current probabilities to adopt two-tier bargaining structures and to be unionized. We also report IV and propensity score estimates that confirm our main results. |
| Keywords: | industrial relations, two-tier bargaining, unions, cooperation, persistence |
| JEL: | J50 J53 J59 N00 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15898&r=his |
| By: | Charlotte Bartels (DIW); Felix Kersting (Humboldt University Berlin) |
| Abstract: | We study the dynamics of capital accumulation, income inequality, capital concentration, and voting up to 1914. Based on new panel data for Prussian regions, we re-evaluate the famous Revisionism Debate between orthodox Marxists and their critics. We show that changes in capital accumulation led to a rise in the capital share and income inequality, as predicted by orthodox Marxists. But against their predictions, this did neither lead to further capital concentration nor to more votes for the socialists. Instead, trade unions and strike activity limited income inequality and fostered political support for socialism, as argued by the Revisionists. |
| Keywords: | Income Inequality, Concentration, Top Incomes, Capital Share, Capital Accumulation; |
| JEL: | D31 D63 J31 N30 |
| Date: | 2023–01–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:380&r=his |
| By: | Jordan, David |
| Abstract: | Northern Ireland's productivity performance has persistently been the worst of any UK region. This is despite having the apparent benefit of subnational industrial policy since the 1920s. Can institutions - through the interaction between business and local policymakers - explain this longstanding productivity gap? Existing literature focuses on post-war policy in Northern Ireland, but neglects its interwar origins. Using new comparisons of regional and sectoral industrial productivity, and new archival evidence for Stormont's interwar industrial policy, demonstrates regional institutions created barriers to productivity growth, restricting the development of new industries in Northern Ireland. Further UK devolution will not automatically promote regional convergence: its success will depend upon the institutional incentives faced by subnational policymakers. |
| Keywords: | productivity, industrial policy, institutions, devolution, interwar manufacturing |
| JEL: | H20 N64 O43 R50 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:202304&r=his |
| By: | Winfree, Paul |
| Abstract: | New hand-collected school administrative data from 1870s Virginia, alongside linked individual US Censusrecords, reveals that temporary school closures had lasting effects on literacy and income in adulthood. Those affected by the closures had lower intergenerational economic mobility, particularly those from low-income backgrounds. The age at which the closures occurred also played a role with younger cohorts more affected by early developmental disruptions and older cohorts more affected by prolonged closures. |
| Keywords: | returns to education, school closures, literacy, economic mobility, wage inequality |
| JEL: | H75 I21 I24 J62 N31 N91 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:202302&r=his |
| By: | Elizalde, Aldo; Hidalgo, Eduardo; Salgado, Nayeli |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that the underprovision of public goods can be partly explained by lower demand from Indigenous groups with high preferences for Indigenous identity and a high capacity for coordination. Examining the post-Mexican Revolution period (1920s-1950s), when the state used the first road network for nation-building, our diff-in-diff analysis shows that pre-colonial political centralisation is associated with less road infrastructure. This is attributed to stronger capacity for collective action and stronger Indigenous identity preferences. Finally, we show that poor road infrastructure today is linked to lower economic performance. |
| Keywords: | Indigenous institutions, public good provision, collective action, Indigenous identity |
| JEL: | H41 H79 N7 O18 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:202301&r=his |
| By: | Ann Hipp; Björn Jindra; Kehinde Medase |
| Abstract: | Former socialist systems were considered inferior to Western market economies in terms of innovation and productivity. We provide new evidence on the productivity effects of inventorship in the Soviet-type economy of the German Democratic Republic (GDR). We investigate three types of inventorship: knowledge generation, accumulation and diffusion. By applying a Cobb-Douglas production function using original primary and harmonized productivity data and manually cleaned patent data of the GDR between 1970 and 1989, we show that inventorship contributed to productivity in the industry sectors. This holds for knowledge generation, accumulation and diffusion in general, while in the presence of sufficient local interactive capabilities, international knowledge diffusion did not result in productivity gains. We contribute to empirical evidence on the productivity effects from an alternative system of patenting and innovation. |
| Keywords: | Soviet-type economy, productivity, inventorship, knowledge |
| JEL: | P23 L60 O14 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:atv:wpaper:2301&r=his |
| By: | Rémy Herrera (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03907951&r=his |
| By: | Jon D. Wisman |
| Abstract: | Thorstein Veblen gave special attention to work. He claimed that an instinct of workmanship "...is present in all men, and asserts itself even under very adverse circumstances... [It] is the court of final appeal in any question of economic truth or adequacy." Although many scholars have examined Veblen's claim, this article differs by examining his conception of work in light of findings from anthropology, evolutionary psychology, and happiness research. The questions explored are: Why and how did Veblen understand work as instinctual and did his understanding conform to Charles Darwin's concept of instincts? Is it an instinct that evolved to be pleasurable or to gain respect and status to motivate provisioning? If evidence supports the claim that work did indeed evolve to be pleasurable, and today much of it is not, then its restructuring should be a top social priority. Although Veblen's understanding of work provides inadequate guidance as to how it should be restructured, he was pathbreaking in insisting that our understanding of this question, and of human behavior and society more generally, must be grounded in the evolutionary biology launched by Darwin. Accordingly, a second aim of this article is to offer support for Veblen's attempt to do so. |
| Keywords: | instinct of workmanship; Darwinism; institutions; anthropology of work; happiness; research |
| JEL: | A13 B15 Z10 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amu:wpaper:2023-03&r=his |
| By: | Marine Gassier |
| Abstract: | What distinguishes post-war governments that succeed in establishing a stable political order and prevent recurring conflict from those that do not? This comparative study considers the specific threats that typically lead to the collapse of the post-conflict political order to offer new hypotheses on the conditions that affect post-war governments' ability to sustainably restore stability. The threats considered include (i) fragmentation of the main actors in the conflict, (ii) inadequate demobilization, and (iii) enduring dependence of the post-war government on local brokers. |
| Keywords: | Post-conflict, Political regimes, Armed conflict, Political stability, Ethiopia, Somalia |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2023-17&r=his |
| By: | Jelnov, Pavel (Leibniz University of Hannover) |
| Abstract: | This paper takes advantage of a natural experiment, in which Soviet Jewish immigrants were quasi-randomly allocated of to the U.S. and Israel. I find that young women who immigrated as children follow similar fertility profiles in the two host countries. In Israel, they are also similar to native-born women by exercising almost no selection into motherhood and postnatal labor force participation. By contrast, and away from native-born American women, immigrants to the U.S. either combine family and career or become low-educated non-working mothers. This non-trivial segregation arises from a combination of the American Dream with origin-determined fertility norms. |
| Keywords: | immigration, Soviet Jews, female labor force participation, immigrant fertility |
| JEL: | J13 J61 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15847&r=his |
| By: | Takeda, Kohei |
| Abstract: | The interplay between structural transformation in the aggregate and local economies is key to understanding spatial inequality and worker mobility. This paper develops a dynamic overlapping generations model of economic geography where historical exposure to different industries creates persistence in occupational structure, and non-homothetic preferences and differential productivity growth lead to different rates of structural transformation. Despite the heterogeneity across locations, sectors, and time, the model remains tractable and is calibrated with the U.S. economy from 1980 to 2010. The calibration allows us to back out measures of upward mobility and inequality, thereby providing theoretical underpinnings to the Gatsby Curve. The counterfactual analysis shows that structural transformation has substantial effects on mobility: if there were no productivity growth in the manufacturing sector, income mobility would be about 6 percent higher, and if amenities were equalized across locations, it would rise by around 10 percent. In these effects, we find that different degrees of historical exposure to industries in local economies play an important role. |
| Keywords: | structural transformation; upward mobility; labor mobility; economic geography |
| JEL: | O14 J62 R11 R13 |
| Date: | 2022–12–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:118050&r=his |
| By: | Laia Balcells; Francisco Villamil |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine the legacies on civil society of routine repressive activities carried out by authoritarian regimes, such as the targeting of opposition organizations. We focus on participation in voluntary associations in post-authoritarian Spain. We hypothesize that while repression initially depresses civic life, such effects do not persist after the demise of authoritarianism and the consolidation of a democratic regime. |
| Keywords: | Authoritarianism, Repression, Democracy, Civic participation |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2023-1&r=his |
| By: | Gerard J. van den Berg; Stephanie von Hinke; Nicolai Vitt |
| Abstract: | Until the mid 1960s, the UK experienced regular measles epidemics, with the vast majority of children being infected in early childhood. The introduction of a measles vaccine substantially reduced its incidence. The first part of this paper examines the long-term human capital and health effects of this change in the early childhood disease environment. The second part investigates interactions between the vaccination campaign and individuals' endowments as captured using molecular genetic data, shedding light on complementarities between public health investments and individual endowments. We use two identification approaches, based on the nationwide introduction of the vaccine in 1968 and local vaccination trials in 1966. Our results show that exposure to the vaccination in early childhood positively affects adult height, but only among those with high genetic endowments for height. We find no effects on years of education; neither a direct effect, nor evidence of complementarities. |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2301.10558&r=his |
| By: | Cheshire, Paul; Hilber, Christian A. L.; Montebruno Bondi, Piero; Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa |
| Abstract: | England´s Town Centre First Policy, introduced in 1996, restricted the opening of new retail and other ‘traditional town centre activities’ to ‘Town Centre’ (TC) locations. The aim was to halt the decay of high streets. We explore the impact of the policy on the supply and location of grocery shops and patterns of shopping by comparing English with Scottish TCs before and after the policy change in England. Using store level census data, we show first that supply trends for grocery stores in TCs were similar in both countries prior to the implementation of the policy. After the policy took effect, however, stores in TCs increased relatively more strongly in England, but with no change in grocery employment. Second, using survey data, we show that the policy changed the composition of shops in TCs in favour of convenience-type shops supplied by the “big four” grocery chains. However, although it increased the number of TC shops, the policy had no effect on the number of shoppers choosing TC locations. |
| Keywords: | land use planning; retail location; shopping destinations; town centre; decay of high street |
| JEL: | L81 R14 R33 R38 |
| Date: | 2022–12–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:118055&r=his |
| By: | Gerard J. van den Berg; Stephanie von Hinke; Nicolai Vitt |
| Date: | 2023–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:uobdis:23/776&r=his |
| By: | Cédric Quertier (LAMOP - Laboratoire de Médiévistique Occidentale de Paris - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Date: | 2022–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03089047&r=his |
| By: | Lea Steininger (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business; Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies); Mathis L. Richtmann (Reuters & LSE) |
| Abstract: | The permanent international lender of last resort consists of a swap line network between six major central banks, centering around the US Federal Reserve. Arguably, this network is a solution to a long debated problem as it provides public emergency liquidity provision to the world's largest financial market, the Eurodollar market. Drawing on exclusive interviews with monetary technocrats as well as a textual analysis of Federal Open Market Committee meeting transcripts over the course of 14 years, we reconstruct how this facility came into being. Building on Kalyanpur (2017) and Braun (2015), we develop an interpretative framework of bricolage to set the formation into context: In times of crises, central bankers rely on retrospection, experimentation, and creative re-deployment to develop their tools. However, in non-crises times, those tools prevail which offer what we coin 'bureaucratic familiarity'. |
| Keywords: | Standing Swap Facilities, lender of last resort, International Monetary Policy, Central Bank Cooperation, Monetary Technocrats |
| JEL: | E52 E58 F5 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp334&r=his |
| By: | Morgane Laouenan (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LIEPP - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire d'évaluation des politiques publiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Palaash Bhargava (Department of Economics Columbia University - Columbia University [New York]); Jean-Benoît Eyméoud (LIEPP - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire d'évaluation des politiques publiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Olivier Gergaud (LIEPP - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire d'évaluation des politiques publiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Guillaume Plique (médialab - médialab (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, Kedge BS - Kedge Business School); Etienne Wasmer (New York University [Abu Dhabi] - NYU - NYU System, LIEPP - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire d'évaluation des politiques publiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | A new strand of literature aims at building the most comprehensive and accurate database of notable individuals. We collect a massive amount of data from various editions of and . Using deduplication techniques over these partially overlapping sources, we cross-verify each retrieved information. For some variables, adds 15% more information when missing in . We find very few errors in the part of the database that contains the most documented individuals but nontrivial error rates in the bottom of the notability distribution, due to sparse information and classification errors or ambiguity. Our strategy results in a cross-verified database of 2.29 million individuals (an elite of 1/43, 000 of human being having ever lived), including a third who are not present in the English edition of . Data collection is driven by specific social science questions on gender, economic growth, urban and cultural development. We document an Anglo-Saxon bias present in the English edition of , and document when it matters and when not. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-03930666&r=his |
| By: | Bansak, Cynthia; Dziadula, Eva; Zavodny, Madeline |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of having a clear path to lawful permanent resident status, or a "green card, " and naturalized citizenship on marital status and spousal characteristics among Chinese immigrants in the United States. A series of U.S. policy changes in the early 1990s made all mainland Chinese immigrants already present in the country eligible for a green card. We examine the effect of those policy changes on Chinese immigrants' marriage market outcomes relative to other East Asian immigrants. Using 1990 and 2000 U.S. Census data, we find that the share of Chinese immigrants who are married increased after they became automatically eligible for a green card. In particular, highly educated Chinese immigrants became relatively more likely to be married with a spouse living with them and relatively less likely to be married with a spouse living elsewhere. This pattern suggests that some Chinese spouses immigrated after their husband or wife received legal status, or spousal chain migration occurred. We also find that highly educated Chinese immigrants benefited in the marriage market in terms of spousal education and earnings, but less-educated Chinese immigrants did not. Meanwhile, less-educated Chinese-born women became relatively more likely to marry a U.S. native. |
| Keywords: | immigration, marriage markets, assortative matching, legal status, China |
| JEL: | J12 J15 K37 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1233&r=his |
| By: | Marco Bertoni; Giorgio Brunello; Lorenzo Cappellari (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Maria De Paola |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of winning a mayoral election on long-run licit earnings, which plays a key role in the selection of local political leaders. We use Italian administrative social security data from 1995 to 2017 and a sharp regression discontinuity design based on close elections. Over a 15-year horizon, the average present discounted value of winning an election is equal to 35, 000€, or 85 percent of the annual labor and social security earnings for the average candidate in our sample, a modest effect driven by the compensations for political service and concentrated during the first five years after the election. Net of compensations for service, this effect is negative during the first ten years after the election, and almost fades away afterwards. Differences in the political careers of winners and runners-up and a two-term limit rule on mayors’ office contribute to explain our results. |
| Keywords: | returns to office; political selection; revolving door; rent-seeking; close elections. |
| JEL: | D72 J44 J45 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie1:def123&r=his |