nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2023‒02‒13
28 papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Northumbria University

  1. Historical roots of the dual-earner model: Women’s labour force participation in Sweden, 1870–1960 By Molinder, Jakob
  2. The research university, invention and industry: evidence from German history By Dittmar, Jeremiah; Meisenzahl, Ralf R.
  3. The impact of public transportation and commuting on urban labour markets: evidence from the new survey of London life and labour, 1929-32 By Seltzer, Andrew J.; Wadsworth, Jonathan
  4. By Mohammed B Salma
  5. Distortionary Agricultural Policies: Their Productivity, Location and Climate Variability Implications for South Africa During the 20th Century By Greyling, Jan; Pardey, Philip G.; Senay, Senait
  6. The Rise and Fall of Global Currencies over Two Centuries By Roger Vicquéry
  7. Accounting for Spanish economic development 1850-2019 By del Río, Fernando; Lores, Francisco-Xavier
  8. Bref retour cliométrique sur 50 ans de performances scolaires en lecture et en mathématique en France : 1970-2020 By Nadir Altinok; Claude Diebolt
  9. The Cost of Populism: Evidence from history By Manuel Funke; Moritz Schularick; Christoph Trebesch
  10. Trade persistence and trader identity - evidence from the demise of the Hanseatic League By Marczinek, Max; Maurer, Stephan; Rauch, Ferdinand
  11. Omnia Juncta in Uno*: foreign powers and trademark protection in Shanghai's concession era By Alfaro, Laura; Bao, Cathy; Chen, Maggie X.; Hong, Junjie; Steinwender, Claudia
  12. Nationalism as a Response to Worker Militancy By Jon D. Wisman; Nicholas Reksten
  13. The Bankruptcy Process of a Genoan Commerce Desk in the Early Modern Spain By Mercedes Gomez Oreña
  14. Central Bank Digital Currencies: An Old Tale with a New Chapter By Michael D. Bordo; William Roberds
  15. Cliometrics of Learning-Adjusted Years of Schooling: Evidence from a New Dataset By Nadir Altinok; Claude Diebolt
  16. Like an Ink Blot on Paper: Testing the Diffusion Hypothesis of Mass Migration, Italy 1876-1920 By Yannay Spitzer; Ariell Zimran
  17. Investment Planning and the Input-Output Model in Postwar Europe By Vincent Carret
  18. The unintended long-run impacts of agro-terrorism in Brazil By Yuri Barreto; Rodrigo Oliveira
  19. Cycles économiques : les leçons de l’histoire By Claude Diebolt
  20. Ο Σταυρός και η Γροθιά: Επιδράσεις του Χριστιανισμού στον εργατικό συνδικαλισμό By Koutroukis, Theodore
  21. Corporate indebtedness and macroeconomic stabilisation from a long-term perspective By Moritz Schularick
  22. Енергетичната и екологична икономическа теория на Славчо Загоров (1898 - 1970) By Nenovska, Nona; Magnin, Eric; Nenovsky, Nikolay
  23. On the Predictability of the DJIA and S&P500 Indices By John B. Guerard; Dimitrios D. Thomakos; Foteini Kyriazi; Konstantinos Mamais
  24. Intergenerational Transmission of Education in a Developing Country: Evidence from A Mass Education Program in Vietnam By Trung Hoang; Ha Nguyen
  25. The Long-Run Effects of South Africa’s Forced Resettlements on Employment Outcomes By Alexia Lochmann; Nidhi Rao; Martin A. Rossi
  26. History and development of the banking sector in Kosovo By Zogjani, Jeton; Kovaci-Uruci, Fife
  27. On the Theory of the Pragmatic Public By Whetsell, Travis A
  28. Measuring and Comparing Consumption Inequality between France and the United States By Aliocha Accardo; Sylvérie Herbert; Cristina Jude; Adrian Penalver

  1. By: Molinder, Jakob (Department of Economic History, Lund University)
    Abstract: Today, Sweden has one of the highest female labour force participation rates in the developed world, but how deep are the roots of women’s involvement in gainful employment? In this article, I present new estimates of women’s labour force participation rate between 1870 and 1960, the time when the country shifted from a predominantly agrarian economy to an industrial and services-based society. The revised data give a very different pattern from existing series; I find that female participation displays a clear U-shape: falling from the late nineteenth century, reaching a trough in the 1940s, and then starting to rise from the 1960s. Falling employment in agriculture was not balanced out by expanding opportunities in manufacturing, but women’s gainful employment started expanding as the white-collar services sector grew and women’s education increased - following the pattern set out by Goldin’s theory of the U-curve. The male breadwinner period was short and less pronounced in Sweden than in most other countrieshowever. Participation among adult women in the late nineteenth century was above 55 percent, and never fell below 40 percent at the lowest point. My findings lend support to the idea that the dual-earner model of present-day Sweden could be the outcome of a longer historical trajectory.
    Keywords: Female labor force participation; Sweden; Dual-earner; Breadwinner
    JEL: J21 N33 N34
    Date: 2022–12–13
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:luekhi:0244&r=his
  2. By: Dittmar, Jeremiah; Meisenzahl, Ralf R.
    Abstract: We examine the role of universities in knowledge production and industrial change using historical evidence. Political shocks led to a profound pro-science shift in German universities around 1800. To study the consequences, we construct novel microdata. We find that invention and manufacturing developed similarly in cities closer to and farther from universities in the 1700s and shifted towards universities and accelerated in the early 1800s. The shift in manufacturing was strongest in new and high knowledge industries. After 1800, the adoption of mechanized technology and the number and share of firms winning international awards for innovation were higher near universities.
    Keywords: industrialization; invention; universities; cities
    JEL: O14 O18 O30 N13 R10
    Date: 2022–06–30
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:117904&r=his
  3. By: Seltzer, Andrew J.; Wadsworth, Jonathan
    Abstract: This paper examines the consequences of the commuter transport revolution on working-class labour markets in London, circa 1930. Using GIS-based data constructed from the New Survey of London Life and Labour, we examine the extent of commuting and estimate the earnings returns to commuting. We show that commuting was an important feature for most working-class Londoners in the early-twentieth century. Using a variety of identifying procedures to address the endogeneity of distance commuted, we estimate a likely causal return of between 1.5 to 3.5 percent of earnings for each additional kilometre travelled. We also show that commuting was an important contributor to improvements in quality of life in the early-twentieth century.
    Keywords: commuting; public transport; earnings; London
    JEL: N34 N74 N94 J01 L91
    Date: 2022–09–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:117986&r=his
  4. By: Mohammed B Salma (KSU - King Saud University [Riyadh])
    Abstract: The Arabian Peninsula witnessed a prosperous economic activity during antiquity, considering that economic exchange was the backbone of human life. This research aims to present an analytical study on the economic relations between the regions of the Arabian Peninsula in the light of the Marxist theory that supports the decisive role of the economic factor in history, especially since the regions of the Arabian Peninsula are rich in multiple products, which led to the diversity of aspects of economic activity "agricultural, animal and industrial". In turn, it was reflected in the internal economic relations between the regions of the Arabian Peninsula through the routes and cities of the trade caravans. The external interventions (Ptolemaic and Roman) negatively affected the internal relations between the south and north of the Arabian Peninsula.The economic aspect was the basis on which the relations between the south and north of the Arabian Peninsula were built, and the economic theory of Karl Marx was applied to it, as economic cooperation contributed to its development and growth, and also caused its transformation or end.
    Keywords: Economic, Arabian Peninsula, relations, Marxist theory, roads. JEL Classification Codes: A11 B14 D51 F43, roads. JEL Classification Codes: A11, B14, D51, F43
    Date: 2022–12–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03904730&r=his
  5. By: Greyling, Jan; Pardey, Philip G.; Senay, Senait
    Abstract: During the first half of the 20th century, the policy stance towards South African agriculture swung from suppression to support. More recently, the agricultural support policies were eliminated. Using newly constructed, long-run (1918-2015) data concerning maize production, yield and average price, we show these switching agricultural policy regimes had significant production, productivity, and climate risk implications for the maize sector. At its peak, this policy-induced movement reduced maize productivity by between 7.9 and 15.3 percent. The removal of the distortions coincided with a contraction in the total area planted to maize, but some spatial productivity perturbations still persist.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries
    Date: 2023–01–31
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:umaesp:330158&r=his
  6. By: Roger Vicquéry
    Abstract: This paper quantifies the relative dominance of global currencies and the competitive structure of the international monetary system since 1825. I find the post-1945 experience of dollar hegemony to have no historical precedent. No currency has ever maintained such a large, long-lasting lead over global currency rivals. Close competitors frequently challenged the previous hegemon, the pound sterling. I confirm the dollar temporarily overtook the sterling for the first time in the mid-1920s. Among previously overlooked episodes of monetary competition, I highlight the rise of the French franc in the 1850s and 1930s as well as of the German mark in the 1870s. In light of the recent debate on the costs and benefits of a multipolar international monetary system, I document a positive correlation between higher global currency competition and the prevalence of financial crises, which is however highly dependent on specific sub-periods.
    Keywords: International Monetary System, Long Run, Dollar Hegemony, Multipolarity
    JEL: F3 F4 N2 E5
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:882&r=his
  7. By: del Río, Fernando; Lores, Francisco-Xavier
    Abstract: By conducting wedge-growth accounting, we assess the contribution of the economic forces (expressed as wedges in the equilibrium conditions of the neoclassical growth model) driving Spanish economic growth from 1850 to 2019. We find that declining investment and capital-efficiency wedges slowed down Spanish economic growth and downsized the labour share from 1850 to the First World War. The crisis of the 1930s (Great Depression and Civil War) was primarily driven by the decrease of the labour-efficiency wedge. The simultaneous increase of both efficiency wedges drove the Spanish economic miracle of the 1960s, which was preceded by a large increase in the investment wedge, resulting in a significant rise of the investment rate. From the mid-1970s, the declining capital-efficiency wedge was the primary force driving the fall of the labour share and the output growth slowdown. However, the labour wedge drove the medium-term fluctuations of output, labour, and investment.
    Keywords: Growth Accounting, Capital-Efficiency Wedge, Labour-Efficiency Wedge, Labour Wedge, Investment Wedge, Resource Constraint Wedge, Output, Labour Share, Hours Worked, Investment, Spanish economic growth, Wedge-growth accounting.
    JEL: E13 E17 E25 O41 O47
    Date: 2023–01–17
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116025&r=his
  8. By: Nadir Altinok (BETA/CNRS & University of Lorraine); Claude Diebolt (BETA/CNRS & University of Strasbourg)
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:afc:wpaper:04-23&r=his
  9. By: Manuel Funke (Kiel Institute for the World Economy); Moritz Schularick (University of Bonn); Christoph Trebesch (Kiel Institute for the World Economy)
    Abstract: The rise of populism in the past two decades has motivated much work on its drivers, but less is known about its economic and political consequences. This column uses a comprehensive cross-country database on populism dating back to 1900 to offer a historical, long-run perspective. It shows that (1) populism has a long history and is serial in nature – if countries have been governed by a populist once, they are much more likely to see another populist coming to office in the future; (2) populist leadership is economically costly, with a notable long-run decline in consumption and output; and (3) populism is politically disruptive, fostering instability and institutional decay. The analysis suggests that populism is here to stay.
    Date: 2021–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkpbs:015&r=his
  10. By: Marczinek, Max; Maurer, Stephan; Rauch, Ferdinand
    Abstract: How do trade networks persist following disruptions of political networks? We study different types of persistence following the decline of the Hanseatic League using a panel of 21, 590 city-level trade flows over 190 years, covering 1, 425 cities. We use the Sound Toll data, a dataset collected by the Danish crown until 1857 that registered every ship entering or leaving the Baltic Sea, forming one of the most granular and extensive trade data sets. We measure trade flows by counting the number of ships sailing on a particular route in a given year and estimate gravity equations using PPML and an appropriate set of fixed effects. Bilateral gravity estimation results show that trade among former Hansa cities only shows persistence after its dissolution in 1669 for about 30 years, but this persistence is not robust across different regression specifications. However, when we incorporate the flag under which a ship is sailing and consider trilateral trade (where an observation is a combination of origin, destination, and flag), we find that trade persistently exceeds the gravity benchmark: Hansa cities continued to trade more with each other, but only on ships that were owned in another former Hansa city and thus sailed under a Hansa flag. Similar effects are found for trade among former Hansa cities and their trading posts abroad, yet again only conditional on the ship sailing under a former Hanseatic flag. Trade flows among the same pair of origin and destination cities, but under a different flag, do not show this persistence. Our main result shows that the identity of traders persists longer and more strongly than other forms of trading relationships we can measure. Apart from these new quantitative and qualitative insights on the persistence of trade flows, our paper is also of historic interest, as it provides new and detailed information on the speed of decline of trade amongst members of the Hanseatic League.
    Keywords: Hanseatic League; Hansa; gravity
    JEL: F14 N73 N93
    Date: 2022–02–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:117760&r=his
  11. By: Alfaro, Laura; Bao, Cathy; Chen, Maggie X.; Hong, Junjie; Steinwender, Claudia
    Abstract: We investigate how firms and markets adapt to trademark protection, an extensively used but under-examined form of IP protection to address asymmetric information, by exploring a historical precedent: China's trademark law of 1923. Exploiting unique, newly digitized firm-employee and firm-agent datasets from Shanghai in 1872-1941, we show that the trademark law, established as an unanticipated and Western-disapproved response to end foreign privileges in China, shaped firm dynamics and relationships on all sides of trade-mark conflicts. Western firms with greater dependence on trademark protection grew and raised brand investment, while Japanese businesses, most frequently accused of counterfeiting, contracted despite attempts to build their own brands. The trademark law also fostered relationships with domestic intermediaries, both within and outside the boundaries of Western firms, and the growth of the Chinese intermediary sector. At the market level, the trademark law did not reduce competition or raise brand prices, leading to a coexistence of trademarks and competitive markets and ultimately gains in consumer welfare. A comparison with previous attempts by foreign powers-such as extraterritorial rights and bilateral treaties-shows that the alternative institutions were broadly unsuccessful. *Omnia Juncta in Uno ("All Joined in One") was the Latin motto on the municipal seal of the Shanghai International Settlement (1843-1941) and signified the joint governance of foreign powers in the settlement.
    Keywords: trademark; firm dynamics; intermediaries; competition; IP institutions
    JEL: K11 D20 O10 O30 N40 F20
    Date: 2022–02–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:117758&r=his
  12. By: Jon D. Wisman; Nicholas Reksten
    Abstract: Nationalism is widely understood as a product of the nineteenth century, the doctrinal seeds for which were planted by the American Declaration of Independence and the French Revolution. It is an extension of tribalism to the nation and is understandable in terms of human evolution. It could be serviceable to first tribes and then nations as a means for acquiring social cohesion and domestic peace by convincingly identifying a foreign menace. But what explains the varying intensity of this strategy? This article claims that strengthening of nationalism’s expression has been substantially due to the threat to elites posed by the rise of powerful worker movements which gained increasing militancy during nineteenth century industrialization. Nationalism served to deflect attention from a system that workers found unjust to foreign forces as the cause of their malaise. In this expression, nationalism served as an ideology enabling the more powerful to assuage worker discontent and continue gaining at the expense of the weaker.
    Keywords: Group loyalty, ideology, worker militancy, patriotism
    JEL: B52 J5 N4
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amu:wpaper:2023-02&r=his
  13. By: Mercedes Gomez Oreña (Community of Madrid)
    Abstract: The bankruptcy process of a seventeenth-century business company is the subject of this study that we present. Like any insolvency situation, it entailed a judicial procedure to settle the debts and reach an agreement with the creditors. The diplomatic function carried out by the owner of the company, ambassador of the Catholic Cantons, and his position as treasurer of the Apostolic Chamber reveal the repercussions of the bankruptcy, which is aggravated by the high number of people involved in it and their social category. We begin the investigation with a brief approach to the character, to later delve into the businesses he managed throughout his professional career, we will continue with the structure of the trading desk and the number of employees who worked in it. Issues that are the basis of the main issue that we expose: origin, development and conclusion of the bankruptcy of the house of Juan Bautista Cassani.
    Keywords: 17th century, bankruptcy, creditors, maravedíes, company, debtors, ambassador
    JEL: N23
    Date: 2023–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahe:dtaehe:2301&r=his
  14. By: Michael D. Bordo; William Roberds
    Abstract: We consider the debut of a new monetary instrument, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Drawing on examples from monetary history, we argue that a successful monetary transformation must combine microeconomic efficiency with macroeconomic credibility. A paradoxical feature of these transformations is that success in the micro dimension can encourage macro failure. Overcoming this paradox may require politically uncomfortable compromises. We propose that such compromises will be necessary for the success of CBDCs.
    Keywords: banknotes; central banks; digital currencies; monetary systems
    JEL: E42 E58 N10
    Date: 2022–12–18
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedawp:95574&r=his
  15. By: Nadir Altinok (BETA/CNRS & University of Lorraine); Claude Diebolt (BETA/CNRS & University of Strasbourg)
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:afc:wpaper:02-23&r=his
  16. By: Yannay Spitzer; Ariell Zimran
    Abstract: Why were the poorer countries of the European periphery latecomers to the Age of Mass Migration? We test the diffusion hypothesis, which argues that mass emigration was delayed because it was primarily governed by a gradual process of spatial diffusion of migration networks. We propose a model of migration within a spatial network to formalize this hypothesis and to derive its testable predictions. Focusing on post-unification Italy, we construct a comprehensive municipality- and district-level panel of emigration data over four decades, and use it to show that the testable predictions of the diffusion hypothesis are validated by the data. The emerging picture is that Italian mass migration began in a few separate epicenters from which it expanded over time in an orderly pattern of spatial expansion, and that the epidemiological characteristics of this expansion match those underlying our model. These findings strongly support the diffusion hypothesis, and call for a revision of our understanding of one of the most important features of the Age of Mass Migration--the delayed migration puzzle.
    JEL: F22 J61 N33 N34
    Date: 2023–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30847&r=his
  17. By: Vincent Carret (TRIANGLE - Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Duke University [Durham])
    Abstract: As economic planners sought to rebuild Europe in the unstable postwar period, economic expertise was called upon to help in the drawing of national budgets and to inform economic and planning policies. A tool that circulated from academia to economic administrations was the input-output framework that had been developed by Wassily Leontief since the 1930s. As Leontief came into contact with other economists and with the goals of economic administrations, his framework was repurposed to give answers to the questions of economic planners. Statisticians and economists in Western Europe worked to integrate the input-output framework with the developing national accounts. Looking at their work with a particular focus on investment and development policies, I bring new insights on the role of experts, by showing that the input-output model had little impact on the actual coordination of economic policies.
    Keywords: Leontief, input-output, planning, investment, Europe, instability
    Date: 2022–12–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03895580&r=his
  18. By: Yuri Barreto; Rodrigo Oliveira
    Abstract: This paper studies the unintended long-run effects of a permanent agricultural shock led by agro-terrorism in Brazil on the education and labour market. We explore the witches' broom outbreak in cocoa farms in the world's second most important cocoa production region until 1989, the southeast of Bahia state in the northeast of Brazil. Although the introduction of the disease had political motivations, it had unintended effects on poor people's lives.
    Keywords: Education, Wages, Agriculture, Terrorism, Child labour, Shocks, Brazil
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2022-175&r=his
  19. By: Claude Diebolt (BETA/CNRS & University of Strasbourg)
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:afc:wpaper:03-23&r=his
  20. By: Koutroukis, Theodore
    Abstract: That paper aims to assess the impact of Christianism on trade union movement. Using an historical framework, we study, initially, the roman-catholic teaching on labour. Then, we approach the various versions of Christian socialism and Christian democracy within trade unions and study their implications on employee relations in the western countries. In conclusion, we discuss the perspectives of Christian unionism in current socio-economic environments.
    Keywords: Christianity, Trade Unionism, Church, Social Doctrine
    JEL: J51 N30
    Date: 2023–01–15
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116011&r=his
  21. By: Moritz Schularick (University of Bonn, Sciences Po, and Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
    Abstract: Corporate debt levels have risen sharply in advanced and emerging economies before and during the Covid pandemic. Will corporate debt overhang slow down the recovery from the pandemic? This paper studies the aftermath of corporate debt surges in long-run cross country data. History shows that the macro-economic aftermath of corporate debt booms is typically benign. Three caveats apply, but none of them currently raises alarm bells: (i) the sectoral composition of corporate debt must not be tilted towards investments in the non-tradable sectors; (ii) legal institutions for debt reorganization must work efficiently; (iii) in bank-based financial systems, stringent banking supervision must prevent the emergence or survival of zombie companies.
    Date: 2021–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkpbs:024&r=his
  22. By: Nenovska, Nona; Magnin, Eric; Nenovsky, Nikolay
    Abstract: This article aims to rediscover an author relatively unknown to the general public, Slavcho Zagorov, and revive his ideas. Zagorov is a Bulgarian economist and statistician whose main works date from 1954 and are mainly devoted to the concept of energy flow in the economy and human metabolism, explained through the prism of thermodynamics. Criticizing the mainstream economic approach to national income in terms of "value", he developed a new approach of "national income movement". According to Zagorov, national income is "energy movement", which he calculates in terms of primary energy sources. He draws conclusions from direct observations on the economic development of the Danube countries.
    Keywords: B31, B30, N01 , Q43, Q5
    JEL: B30 B31 N01 Q40 Q43 Q50
    Date: 2022–09–15
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:115938&r=his
  23. By: John B. Guerard (McKinley Capital Management, LLC); Dimitrios D. Thomakos (Department of Business Administration, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, 10559 Greece; International Centre for Economic Analysis, Canada); Foteini Kyriazi (Department of Agribusiness and Supply Chain Management, Agricultural University of Athens); Konstantinos Mamais (Department of Business Administration, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, 10559 Greece)
    Abstract: We obtained from Standard and Poor's Corporation, the complete 126-year history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) daily closing prices. We are applying rolling window averaging and adaptive learning methodologies, coupled with robust estimation methods, to examine which are the best forecasting models over a broad range of economic and financial conditions during the life of the index, based on daily and monthly stock index prices and daily, monthly, and semi-annual stock returns. Why is an AR(1) model a reasonable benchmark of stock prices? Why do we have it? What should be our forecasting benchmarks? Let us briefly re-visit the history of stock price research and efficient markets. Do we find forecasting improvements from the Hendry-Castle-Doornik-Clements approach using robust forecasting methodologies and saturation variables in the prices of the index? Given that the DJIA fell over 15% during the first half of 2022, is this one of the worst six-month periods ever? What has happened to the Dow, historically, during such periods in the past with regards to six-month, one-year, and three-year-ahead stock returns? Is capitalism dead or doomed? We report statistically significant forecasting improvement from saturation and robust forecasting techniques during the 1896 -June 2022 period. We report forecasted stock returns for the next 6 months and three years that are bullish. In the King's English, June 30, 2022 was another excellent common stock buying opportunity and capitalism is not dead.
    Keywords: forecasting financial prices, forecasting financial returns, leading economic indicator, return volatility, rolling window averaging
    JEL: C53 C52 C58 G11 G14
    Date: 2023–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2023-001&r=his
  24. By: Trung Hoang; Ha Nguyen
    Abstract: We study the long-run and multi-generational effects of a mass education program in Vietnam during the First Indochina War (1946-1954). Difference-in-difference estimations indicate that the children of mothers exposed to the education program had an average of 0.9 more years of education. We argue that the impact is via mother’s education. An additional year of maternal education increases children’s education by up to 0.65 years, a stronger effect than those found in the existing literature. Better household lifestyles and a stronger focus on education are possible transmission pathways.
    Keywords: mass education; human capital transmission; mother education; Vietnam; education program; ha Nguyen; household lifestyle; intergenerational transmission; Labor markets; Income; Women; Insurance; Global
    Date: 2022–12–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/245&r=his
  25. By: Alexia Lochmann (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Nidhi Rao; Martin A. Rossi
    Abstract: Can South Africa’s segregation policies explain, at least partially, its current poor employment outcomes? To explore this question, we study the long-term impact of the forced resettlement of around 3.5 million black South Africans from their communities to the so-called “homelands” or “Bantustans”, between 1960 and 1991. Our empirical strategy exploits the variability in the magnitude of resettlements between communities. Two main findings. First, the magnitude of outgoing internal migrations was largest for districts close to former homelands. Second, districts close to former homelands have higher rates of non-employed population in 2011. Together the evidence suggests that districts that experienced racial segregation policies most intensely, as measured by outgoing forced resettlements, have worse current employment outcomes.
    Keywords: Homelands; Employment; Apartheid; Segregation policies
    JEL: J15 J21 J61 J71 N37
    Date: 2023–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cid:wpfacu:141a&r=his
  26. By: Zogjani, Jeton; Kovaci-Uruci, Fife
    Abstract: This paper aims to discuss the main challenges and difficulties that the banking system in Kosovo was faced under the former Yugoslavia and the Serbian state(s). Also, this paper includes a discussion over the process of consolidation and development of the banking sector during the post-war period in Kosovo and the process of modernization in the post-independence period. The paper is based on the main banking indicators of the banking system in Kosovo, including bank assets, loans and deposits, banking performance and profitability indicators as well as banking electronic services over the last two decades. The highest growth rates of loans and deposits in Kosovo have been during the period 2004 - 2013, where household demand for loans and deposits have been higher during this period. Then, net banking profit in Kosovo has had an average annual growth of 80 million Euros during the period 2014 - 2020 and it is considered with the highest average growth over the last two decades. Since 2000, banking profitability indicators have shown a continuous improvement and their largest average annual growth has been during the period 2015 - 2020 while non-performing loans have had an average annual decline from 8.7% in 2005 to 2.7% in 2020. Also, electronic banking services have had an enormous growth and development, and these services have enabled banking customers to use them directly and continuously throughout 7/24. In conclusion, Kosovo has had the long way from a planned economy to a market economy but it has resulted in a difficult and quite challenging transformation. Since 1999, economic growth and the banking environment in Kosovo have enabled banks to improve, increase and expand their activities.
    Keywords: banking and payments authority of Kosovo; banking industry; banking performance and profitability; electronic banking services; MEB; National Bank of Kosovo (Bank Kos); UNMIK
    JEL: E43 E44 E58 G18
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:115930&r=his
  27. By: Whetsell, Travis A
    Abstract: The discipline of public administration has grappled with concepts regarding the public for well over a century. Scholars from public choice, public value(s), and publicness have analyzed myriad elements of administration related to the public. However, detailed explorations of this fundamental term remain relatively sparse, disparate, and under-theorized. In this essay, an ontology and intellectual history of the public is developed, starting with John Dewey’s classic work The Public and its Problems. Dewey’s social-interaction-consequence view of the public, referred to here as the pragmatic public is evaluated through multiple theories in public administration. Finally, theories of social networks and complexity science are unified with the pragmatic public, recentering and reinvigorating the theory in the context of network governance.
    Date: 2023–01–14
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8ukmr&r=his
  28. By: Aliocha Accardo; Sylvérie Herbert; Cristina Jude; Adrian Penalver
    Abstract: This paper constructs an annual dataset of consumption by income quintiles for France since 1989 in order to make a granular comparison of consumption inequality with the United States. First, we match consumption data from a survey run every five years with the national accounts, and then use a Kalman filter to interpolate missing observations, leveraging the yearly national accounts data to improve the performance of the Kalman filter. We validate this technique by applying it to a US dataset with pseudo-missing data comparable with our French data. Second, we construct a US consumption dataset compatible with the French classification of consumption items and compare consumption inequality trends between the US and France. We find consumption inequality to be overall lower than income inequality, and not to follow the dynamics of income inequality. Consumption inequality is also higher in the US than in France. Finally, based on the weights of the different consumption items, we construct annual consumption deflators by quintiles. We find that dispersion in price pressures across income groups is less marked in France than in the United States, and overall quite small in both countries.
    Keywords: Inequality, Consumption, Income, Inflation
    JEL: D31 E21 E31
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:904&r=his

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