nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2023‒02‒06
34 papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Northumbria University

  1. A new dataset to study a century of innovation in Europe and in the US By Bergeaud, Antonin; Verluise, Cyril
  3. Capitalism and extreme poverty: a global analysis of real wages, human height, and mortality since the long 16th century By Sullivan, Dylan; Hickel, Jason
  5. [ review of ] Conservative Liberalism, Ordo-liberalism, and the State", by Kenneth Dyson, Oxford University Press, New York, 2021, xx + 592 pp. £ 120 (hardback), ISBN 9780198854289. By Marie Daou; Alain Marciano
  6. Class Di¤erences and the Commercial Revolution: An Equilibrium Selection Story By Maurizio Iacopetta
  7. Dating business cycles in France: a reference chronology By Antonin Aviat; Frédérique Bec; Claude Diebolt; Catherine Doz; Denis Ferrand; Laurent Ferrara; Eric Heyer; Valérie Mignon; Pierre-Alain Pionnier
  8. Wealth and Ideology in Italy: The 1923 ''Quasi Abolition'' of Inheritance Tax and Fascists' ''Middle Class Politics'' By Giacomo Gabbuti
  9. Losing height: measuring the regional loss of human capital from the Republican exile to Mexico By Sanchez Alonso, Blanca; Santiago Caballero, Carlos
  10. The Long Run Impacts of Court-Ordered Desegregation By Garrett Anstreicher; Jason Fletcher; Owen Thompson
  11. Ideas Have Consequences : The Impact of Law and Economics on American Justice By Elliott Ash; Daniel L. Chen; Suresh Naidu
  12. The country that they built: The dynamic and complex indigenous economies in North America before 1492 By Carlos, Ann M.
  13. The importance of access to knowledge for technological progress in the Industrial Revolution By Erik Hornung; Julius Koschnick; Francesco Cinnirella
  14. Why Did Gender Wage Convergence in the United States Stall? By Peter Q. Blair; Benjamin Posmanick
  15. Macroeconomic Disasters and Consumption Smoothing: International Evidence from Historical Data By Lorenzo Pozzi; Barbara Sadaba
  16. Cliometrics of Learning-Adjusted Years of Schooling: Evidence from a New Dataset. By Nadir ALTINOK; Claude DIEBOLT
  17. Fundamentos macroeconómicos de la economía peruana y los modelos matemáticos de estimación By Pallares, Oscar Novoa; Guillermo, Juan Carlos Lázaro; Romero, Adolfo Angulo; Zumaeta, Lila Ramírez; Espinoza, Jorge Luis Vargas; Zarate, Carlos Luis Lapa
  18. Economic Aspects of Australian Federation: Trade Restrictiveness and Welfare Effects in the Colonies and the Commonwealth, 1901-3 By Luke H. Grayson; Brian D. Varian
  19. Do Bishops Matter for Politics? Evidence From Italy By Gianandrea Lanzara; Sara Lazzaroni; Paolo Masella; Mara P. Squicciarini
  20. Regard cliométrique sur les conditions d'une paix réussie By Antoine Parent; Vincent Touzé
  21. Cycles économiques : les leçons de l’histoire. By Claude Diebolt
  22. Financial Crisis and Long-Run Labor Demand: Evidence from the Swedish Banking Crisis in the Early 90s By Julien Grenet; Hans Grönqvist; Daniel Jahnson
  23. The Economic Legacy of the French Mandate in Lebanon By Joelle M. Abi-Rached; Ishac Diwan
  24. Political Economy of Industrialization and Industrial Parks in Ethiopia By Kebede, Selamawit G.; Heshmati, Almas
  25. The impact of risk cycles on business cycles: a historical view By Danielsson, Jon; Valenzuela, Marcela; Zer, Ilknur
  26. De los ciclos de no especialización a la era del azúcar: Elementos de historia de Cuba en un largo período (1895–1959) (PARTE II) By Rémy Herrera
  27. Savings transition in Asia: Unity in diversity By Prema-chandra Athukorala; Wanissa Suanin
  28. The Bank of Amsterdam and the limits of fiat money By Wilko Bolt; Jon Frost; Hyun Song Shin; Peter Wierts
  29. Continuing Patent Applications at the USPTO By Cesare Righi; Davide Cannito; Theodor Vladasel
  30. Un ensayo sobre los derechos especiales de giro (DEG) y su papel en la arquitectura financiera internacional By Cerón Moscoso, Nicolás; Martín Ianni, Juan; Pérez Caldentey, Esteban
  31. De los ciclos de no especialización a la era del azúcar: Elementos de historia de cuba en un largo período (1492–1898) – Parte 1 By Rémy Herrera
  32. The CEPII Trade and Production Database By Thierry Mayer; Gianluca Santoni; Vincent Vicard
  33. Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks Through External Variable Constraints By Francesco Fusari
  34. Licit and illicit risks in Thomas Aquinas's De emptione et venditione ad tempus By Pierre Januard

  1. By: Bergeaud, Antonin; Verluise, Cyril
    Abstract: Innovation is an important driver of potential growth but quantitative evidence on the dynamics of innovative activities in the long-run are hardly documented due to the lack of data, especially in Europe. In this paper, we introduce PatentCity, a novel dataset on the location and nature of patentees from the 19th century using information derived from an automated extraction of relevant information from patent documents published by the German, French, British and US Intellectual Property offices. This dataset has been constructed with the view of facilitating the exploration of the geography of innovation and includes additional information on citizenship and occupation of inventors.
    Keywords: history of innovation; patent; text as data
    JEL: R14 J01 J1
    Date: 2022–04–28
  2. By: Weber, Cameron
    Abstract: In this research I compare and contrast the class-struggle social theory of industrielisme in the writings of the French liberals around the Le Censeur Européen (1817-1819) with that of Karl Marx’s historical materialism. There are many similarities. Both use concepts of historical development and path-dependency, productive and unproductive labor, of exploitation, and of the necessary primacy of the market under capitalism to bring human freedom. Using Theories of Surplus Value (1860) and available correspondence I show that Marx knew about and respected the French liberal historians and political economists, especially Turgot and Augustin Thierry. It would be conjecture to say that Marx “turned” the original French liberal class struggle, that of free and productive man as exploited by the unproductive state, into his own labor as exploited by capital but we do find and present evidence to this effect.
    Keywords: Political Economy, Karl Marx, Turgot, French Liberals, Class Struggle, Capitalism, Path Dependency, Exploitation
    JEL: B12 B14 D31 P16 P32 Z13
    Date: 2023–01
  3. By: Sullivan, Dylan; Hickel, Jason
    Abstract: This paper assesses claims that, prior to the 19th century, around 90% of the human population lived in extreme poverty (defined as the inability to access essential goods), and that global human welfare only began to improve with the rise of capitalism. These claims rely on national accounts and PPP exchange rates that do not adequately capture changes in people's access to essential goods. We assess this narrative against extant data on three empirical indicators of human welfare: real wages (with respect to a subsistence basket), human height, and mortality. We ask whether these indicators improved or deteriorated with the rise of capitalism in five world regions - Europe, Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and China – using the chronology put forward by world-systems theorists. The evidence we review here points to three conclusions. (1) It is unlikely that 90% of the human population lived in extreme poverty prior to the 19th century. Historically, unskilled urban labourers in all regions tended to have wages high enough to support a family of four above the poverty line by working 250 days or 12 months a year, except during periods of severe social dislocation, such as famines, wars, and institutionalized dispossession – particularly under colonialism. (2) The rise of capitalism caused a dramatic deterioration of human welfare. In all regions studied here, incorporation into the capitalist world-system was associated with a decline in wages to below subsistence, a deterioration in human stature, and an upturn in premature mortality. In parts of South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, key welfare metrics have still not recovered. (3) Where progress has occurred, significant improvements in human welfare began several centuries after the rise of capitalism. In the core regions of Northwest Europe, progress began in the 1880s, while in the periphery and semi-periphery it began in the mid-20th century, a period characterized by the rise of anti-colonial and socialist political movements that redistributed incomes and established public provisioning systems.
    Keywords: capitalism; extreme poverty; progress; world-systems theory
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2023–01–01
  4. By: Guillaume Morel; Magali Jaoul-Grammare
    Abstract: The objective of this article is to study the impact of major pandemics on GDP/capita, wages and prices. The originality of our work lies in a cliometric approach relying on a database spanning multiple centuries (1280-2018), using various series from De Granges et al. (1855), D’Avenel (1894), Baulant (1971), INSEE (1988) and Maddison (2020). In order to analyse the impact of major pandemics on the economy, we use the outlier methodology (Darné and Diebolt, 2004). This method consists in detecting atypical points affecting the evolution of a time series. It relies on real shocks and not on simulated ones; it is therefore more suitable for historical analysis. We detect events which significantly affected the evolution of the economy during a determined period. The following question is tackled: over the period 1280-2018, did pandemics significantly influence the evolution of GDP/capita, wages and prices (wheat) and if so, what has been the nature of this impact? Having outlined the history of pandemics and reviewed the literature linking our variables to health shocks, we present our results and observe a differentiated impact of pandemics between variables. First, only GDP/capita is significantly affected by health shocks. Second, wages and prices seem to be unaffected by pandemics; variations appear to be directly linked to institutional events like the introduction of taxes, the presence of guilds, and changes in worker statuses (Jedwab et al. (2020)), and to structural events as food shortages and crop failures (Boyer et al. (2019)).
    Keywords: Cliometrics, GDP, Infectious diseases, Outliers, Prices, Wages.
    JEL: C32 E32 N33
    Date: 2023
  5. By: Marie Daou (MRE - Montpellier Recherche en Economie - UM - Université de Montpellier); Alain Marciano (MRE - Montpellier Recherche en Economie - UM - Université de Montpellier)
    Date: 2022
  6. By: Maurizio Iacopetta (SKEMA Business School - SKEMA Business School, GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: The reopening of the Mediterranean routes in the tenth century sparked, in some regions of Europe, a long period of economic boom. It also triggered a social change whereby some members of the nobility, despite their social status, turned to commerce. I explain these events through the lens a Kiyotaki and Wright (1989) model, extended to a two-country world. The response of the elite to a communication shock causes the economy to transit from a low-to a high-production equilibrium, if pre-existing class di¤erences are not too large. Quantitative experiments illustrate the view of economic historians that medieval expansion ensued in regions where the elite enjoyed relatively modest privileges and was slow in places, most notably France, where the elite's preoccupation for preserving the social-status was strong.
    Keywords: Equilibrium Selection, Trade, Search
    Date: 2021
  7. By: Antonin Aviat; Frédérique Bec; Claude Diebolt; Catherine Doz; Denis Ferrand; Laurent Ferrara; Eric Heyer (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Valérie Mignon; Pierre-Alain Pionnier
    Abstract: This paper proposes a reference quarterly dating for periods of expansion and recession in France since 1970, carried out by the Dating Committee of the French Economic Association (AFSE). The methodology used is based on two pillars: (i) econometric estimations from various key data to identify candidate periods, and (ii) a narrative approach that describes the economic background that prevailed at that time to finalize the dating chronology. Starting from 1970, the committee has identified four economic recession periods: the two oil shocks 1974-75 and 1980, the investment cycle of 1992-93, and the Great Recession 2008-09 spawned by the Global Financial Crisis. The peak before the Covid-19 recession has been dated to the last quarter of 2019.
    Keywords: business cycles, French economy, dating, narrative approach, econometric modeling
    Date: 2021–01–01
  8. By: Giacomo Gabbuti
    Abstract: In summer 1923, pursuant to the 'full powers' granted him by the Parliament to balance the budget, Alberto De Stefani - appointed in October 1922 as Mussolini's Treasury Minister - announced the abolition of inheritance tax. The most iconic act of Fascist 'financial restauration' of 1922-25, the abolition was never proposed before its sudden implementation. Admittedly against ‘the universal tendencies of the times, ' it provoked surprise and interest, in the country and abroad, but was overlooked by historians. By combining surviving archival evidence, international and Italian media, and a wide survey of other printed sources, the paper offers the first historical reconstruction of this episode - one that clarifies better than other the 'laissez-faire' nature of early Fascism. This new evidence reveals the lobbying activity carried on by pressure groups such as the bankers' association, and a young, proactive association of notaries. The debate surrounding the abolition, and the relevance attributed to it by Fascists before the 1924 election, qualify the episode as an early case of 'middle-class politics'. Indeed, within the recent historiographical revaluation of the early phase of Mussolini's power, the paper argues for the importance of 1920s fiscal policies in coalizing economic elites with the middle classes.
    Keywords: inheritance tax; Fascist Italy; interwar Europe; fiscal policy.
    Date: 2023–01–13
  9. By: Sanchez Alonso, Blanca; Santiago Caballero, Carlos
    Abstract: Recent studies showed that Spanish republican exiles who travelled to Mexico to escape the effects and aftermath of the Spanish civil war were positively selected. However, the potential existence of regional differences in this positive selection needs to be addressed appropriately. Using a new dataset directly extracted from primary sources, we compare the heights of the republican exiles in Mexico with the estimations of those who stayed behind in their provinces of origin. We also study the existence of potential determinants to explain these differences. In addition to estimating how intense the loss of human capital was at the regional level, we also compare the heights of the republican exiles in Mexico with the heights of the Mexican population. Our results show significant regional differences in the positive selection of republican exiles. This was probably the consequence of the opportunities the local populations had to escape after the war started. We also show that Mexico was a place where Spanish migrants were able to obtain better occupations than their counterparts in Spain, meaning that although Mexico benefited from the arrival of a highly skilled labour force, it also provided republican exiles new opportunities.
    Keywords: Heights; Exile; Gender; War
    JEL: D6 J24 N0 N33 O15
    Date: 2023–01–20
  10. By: Garrett Anstreicher; Jason Fletcher; Owen Thompson
    Abstract: Court ordered desegregation plans were implemented in hundreds of US school districts nationwide from the 1960s through the 1980s, and were arguably the most substantive national attempt to improve educational access for African American children in modern American history. Using large Census samples that are linked to Social Security records containing county of birth, we implement event studies that estimate the long run effects of exposure to desegregation orders on human capital and labor market outcomes. We find that African Americans who were relatively young when a desegregation order was implemented in their county of birth, and therefore had more exposure to integrated schools, experienced large improvements in adult human capital and labor market outcomes relative to Blacks who were older when a court order was locally implemented. There are no comparable changes in outcomes among whites in counties undergoing an order, or among Blacks who were beyond school ages when a local order was implemented. These effects are strongly concentrated in the South, with largely null findings in other regions. Our data and methodology provide the most comprehensive national assessment to date on the impacts of court ordered desegregation, and strongly indicate that these policies were in fact highly effective at improving the long run socioeconomic outcomes of many Black students.
    Keywords: School Desegregation, Student Outcomes, Racial Inequality
    Date: 2022–04
  11. By: Elliott Ash (Unknown); Daniel L. Chen (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Suresh Naidu (Unknown)
    Abstract: This paper provides a quantitative analysis of the eects of the early law and economics movement on the U.S. judiciary. Using the universe of published opinions in U.S. Circuit Courts and 1 million District Court criminal sentencing decisions linked to judge identity, we estimate the eect of attendance in the controversial Manne economics training program, an intensive course attended by almost half of federal judges between 1976 and 1999. After attending economics training, participating judges use more economics language, render more conservative verdicts in economics cases, rule against regulatory/taxation agencies more often, and impose longer criminal sentences. These results are robust to adjusting for a wide variety of covariates that predict the timing of attendance. Non-Manne judges randomly exposed to Manne peers on previous cases increase their use of economics language in subsequent opinions, suggesting economics ideas diused throughout the judiciary.
    Keywords: Judicial Decision-Making, Ideology, Intellectual History
    Date: 2022–12–15
  12. By: Carlos, Ann M.
    Abstract: The economic history of the United States is that of Europeans and their institutions. Indigenous nations are absent. This absence is due partly to lack of data but in large measure to a perception that Indigenous communities have contributed little to US growth. This paper argues that this erasure of Indigenous activity overestimates the contributions of European colonists and immigrants. Three case studies explore the economic complexity and social stratification across different nations/regions. Migrants to the Unites States did not come to an empty land but one with settled agriculture, complex production processes and extensive trade relations.
    Keywords: Indigenous economic history, North America
    JEL: J15 N31 N51 N91
    Date: 2022
  13. By: Erik Hornung (University of Cologne); Julius Koschnick (London School of Economics); Francesco Cinnirella (University of Bergamo)
    Abstract: Sustained technological progress was at the heart of the Industrial Revolution. This column argues that access to knowledge was crucial for innovation and technological diffusion during this period. Inventors and entrepreneurs needed access to useful knowledge to generate new ideas and continue innovating. Such access was provided by the ‘economic societies’ – associations of individuals interested in improving the local economy. These societies became drivers of knowledge diffusion and innovation.
    Date: 2022–12
  14. By: Peter Q. Blair; Benjamin Posmanick
    Abstract: During the 1980s, the wage gap between white women and white men in the US declined by approximately 1 percentage point per year. In the decades since, the rate of gender wage convergence has stalled to less than one-third of its previous value. An outstanding puzzle in economics is "why did gender wage convergence in the US stall?" Using an event study design that exploits the timing of state and federal family-leave policies, we show that the introduction of the policies can explain 94% of the reduction in the rate of gender wage convergence that is unaccounted for after controlling for changes in observable characteristics of workers. If gender wage convergence had continued at the pre-family leave rate, wage parity between white women and white men would have been achieved as early as 2017.
    JEL: J16 J31 J32
    Date: 2023–01
  15. By: Lorenzo Pozzi; Barbara Sadaba
    Abstract: This paper uses a large historical dataset (1870–2016) for 16 industrial economies to show that during macroeconomic disasters (e.g., wars, pandemics, depressions) aggregate consumption and income are significantly less decoupled than during normal times. That is, during these times of turmoil, the consumer intertemporal budget constraint holds more strictly, implying a structural reduction in consumption smoothing. While we also observe this for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, this is not the case for more conventional post-war recessions. Our results are obtained using a predictive regression approach that follows directly from the forward-looking nature of consumption theory. Using a savers-spenders type of model, we show that our findings can be interpreted as stemming from an increase in rule-of-thumb consumer behavior during disasters as well as from a stronger precautionary savings motive of optimizing consumers.
    Keywords: Business fluctuations and cycles; Coronavirus disease (COVID-19); Econometric and statistical methods
    JEL: E21 C23
    Date: 2023–01
  16. By: Nadir ALTINOK; Claude DIEBOLT
    Abstract: Analyzing education does not only involve years of schooling, quality matters! This paper aims at providing better data on schooling with a focus on learning outcomes. It provides the largest dataset on learning outcomes, years of schooling and learning-adjusted year of schooling (LAYS) with comparable data between 1970 and 2020. The quantity dimension is measured by years of schooling and uses the latest data from Barro and Lee (2013), while the quality dimension is taken from linking standardized, psychometrically-robust international achievement tests and hybrid tests. The data are available for more than 120 countries between 1970 and 2020. Several findings can be highlighted. A global convergence on both learning outcomes and enrollment has occurred since 1970, but a breakdown can be found after 1990. A very low number of countries perform better over time regarding the quality of schooling, while most countries have a stable level of learning outcomes.
    Keywords: Quality, Human Capital, Education, International, Achievement, Database, Cliometrics, PISA, TIMSS, SACMEQ, PASEC, LLECE, EGRA.
    JEL: C8 I2 J24 N3 O15
    Date: 2023
  17. By: Pallares, Oscar Novoa; Guillermo, Juan Carlos Lázaro; Romero, Adolfo Angulo; Zumaeta, Lila Ramírez; Espinoza, Jorge Luis Vargas; Zarate, Carlos Luis Lapa
    Abstract: Históricamente, al menos en el mundo desarrollado, la política económica se ha implementado sobre la base de un amplio consenso. En las décadas posteriores a la Segunda Guerra Mundial, los llamados «Gloriosos Treinta Años» del capitalismo, los gobiernos aplicaron ampliamente políticas keynesianas que favorecían la intervención activa del gobierno en la economía para lograr tasas de crecimiento lo suficientemente altas como para garantizar el pleno empleo. Con el paso de los años se fue consolidando el sistema caracterizado por el llamado “estado de bienestar”, apoyado por gobiernos de diversas posiciones ideológicas y estimulado por el espectro del desempleo masivo sufrido durante la Gran Depresión de los años 30, la segunda Gran Depresión. Los traumas de la guerra mundial y los desafíos del campo socialista. En América Latina, esta adopción de un papel más activo por parte del país significó la introducción de un sistema de industrialización por sustitución de importaciones, que es el primer precedente para la mayoría de las industrias de transición que existen actualmente en los países de la región. Bajo este sistema, el Estado jugó un papel importante en la protección y promoción de ciertas actividades productivas a través de una activa política comercial e industrial inspirada en doctrinas nacientes industriales de Lister y Hamilton, incluyendo, en muchos casos, a la propia industria. Una parte fundamental de las instituciones de seguridad social que existen actualmente en los países de la región también se remontan a este período histórico. Los acontecimientos de 1971-1973 que llevaron al final del sistema de Bretton Woods que se creó al final de la Segunda Guerra Mundial, los picos del precio del petróleo de 1973 y 1979 (que pusieron la inflación en el centro del escenario) y la recesión en la actividad económica. El estancamiento pone en duda la efectividad del esquema keynesiano, al menos en su versión estándar, que trata de explicar un fenómeno relativamente nuevo: la estanflación. Este telón de fondo macroeconómico es una gran justificación para el renacimiento de la ideología del libre mercado, que estuvo inactiva durante casi 40 años después de la Gran Depresión. La experiencia neoconservadora de EE.UU. y el Reino Unido en la década de 1980, la crisis de la deuda en nuestra región y más tarde el colapso de la Unión Soviética originó el espacio político para promover reformas de mercado en todo el mundo. En la década de 1970, bajo el yugo de varios regímenes militares, fue “probado” en el cono sur de nuestra región.
    Date: 2022–09–20
  18. By: Luke H. Grayson; Brian D. Varian
    Abstract: The federation of Australia in 1901 entailed the formation of a customs union among its six formerly tariff-autonomous colonies. Although the elimination of tariff barriers to intercolonial/interstate trade would have been welfare-enhancing, Australia’s common external tariff was set considerably higher than the tariffs on external goods imported by the pre-federation colonies, implying a welfare reduction. Relying on a newly compiled dataset of 3, 584 commodity- and colonydisaggregated imports, this paper estimates trade restrictiveness indices (TRIs) and static welfare losses for the six Australian colonies in 1900 and for the Commonwealth of Australia in 1903. This paper finds that the TRIs substantially exceeded average weighted tariffs in the colonies and in the Commonwealth. Moreover, this paper finds that, despite the high external tariff legislated by the newly formed Australian Commonwealth, the customs union produced an enormous net static welfare gain, estimated to have been 1.16 per cent of Australian GDP.
    Keywords: Australia, customs union, federation, tariffs, trade restrictiveness index
    JEL: F13 F15 N77
    Date: 2023–01
  19. By: Gianandrea Lanzara; Sara Lazzaroni; Paolo Masella; Mara P. Squicciarini
    Abstract: This paper studies whether and how religious leaders affect politics. Focusing on Italian dioceses in the period from 1948 to 1992, we find that the identity of the bishop in office explains a significant amount of the variation in the vote share for the Christian Democracy party (DC). This result is robust to several exercises that use different samples and time windows. Zooming into the mechanism, we find that two characteristics of bishops matter: (i) his political culture, and (ii) his interaction with the population—the latter being measured using state-of-the-art text-analysis techniques.
    JEL: D72 Z12 D02
    Date: 2023–01
  20. By: Antoine Parent (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Vincent Touzé (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: En croisant regards d'historiens et d'économistes, ce numéro de la Revue de l'OFCE a souligné la richesse et la pluralité des lectures qui peuvent être tirées 100 ans après la promulgation du Traité de Versailles. Faire un bilan sous forme de leçon définitive tirée de l'histoire est un exercice ardu : l'un des écueils majeurs provient du point dans le temps à partir duquel on choisit d'analyser le passé. Par exemple si, comme il est de coutume sur le sujet, on choisit de se situer en 1933 pour juger des conséquences du Traité de paix de 1920, on sera tenté de voir dans l'un la conséquence de l'autre, tombant ainsi sous le coup de l'ineffable biais cognitif post hoc, ergo propter hoc (« à la suite de cela, donc à cause de cela »), ce qui constitue le sophisme bien connu et dénoncé par les cliomètres, consistant à prendre pour la cause ce qui n'est qu'un antécédent.
    Keywords: cliométrie, paix, raisonnement historique
    Date: 2021–01–01
  21. By: Claude Diebolt
    Abstract: Il y a mille et une façons d’aimer l’histoire ; souvent, pour le simple plaisir que procure une compréhension du passé. Pourtant, les économistes en exigent davantage encore : ils aspirent à expliquer, à lui extorquer un enseignement applicable au présent, de surcroît doté d’un pouvoir presque divin, celui d’être en mesure de guider la politique économique et sociale à venir. Lorsque j’ai commencé à étudier l’économie il y a près de quarante ans de cela, l’histoire de la pensée économique était en plein essor. Aujourd’hui, elle est, au mieux, en sommeil, au pire, elle disparaît des cours d’économie. La principale raison de la méfiance à l’égard de ce domaine de spécialité réside certainement dans le fait que la discipline issue de la rencontre entre l’histoire, la philosophie et l’économie est aujourd’hui peu visible et attire peu d’étudiants. Dans une large mesure, j’ai le sentiment que le défi de l’histoire de la pensée économique est désormais de revenir de manière plus systématique sur les grandes questions contemporaines et, ce faisant, de montrer comment l’approche historique peut être utilisée avec avantage pour mieux éclairer, par analogie et sans paralogismes, nombre de questionnements actuels. Bref, il semble important de relancer l’histoire de la pensée économique, aussi afin de participer à l’élaboration de réponses collectives aux enjeux du 21ème siècle. Ce chapitre introductif est un plaidoyer en faveur de ces principes et une très modeste partie du processus lui-même. Il présente une entrée en matière, forcément sélective, à l’histoire des cycles économiques.
    Keywords: Cliométrie, cycles économiques, histoire de la pensée économique.
    JEL: A2 B N
    Date: 2023
  22. By: Julien Grenet (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Hans Grönqvist (Uppsala University, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Daniel Jahnson (Uppsala University)
    Abstract: The Swedish banking crisis in the early 90s counts as one of the five most severe financial crises in history. We examine how firms more exposed to this event adjusted employment in the longrun and the mechanisms involved. Our analysis draws on matched employer-employee data containing the financial statements for a large sample of firms. Our difference-indifferences estimates show that firms with a greater pre-crisis debt burden experienced more difficulties in accessing external capital during the crisis compared to firms with lower baseline debts. This is consistent with the most exposed firms becoming financially constrained. More exposed firms exhibit stronger downward employment adjustments than less exposed firms, and the reductions are mainly concentrated among low-skilled workers. Employment in more exposed firms started to recover four years after the crisis and had fully recuperated about a decade later. These firms also temporarily saw a larger drop in both productivity and investment. We do not find a significant effect on the wage bill, and the estimates are precise enough to rule out even moderate effect sizes.
    Keywords: Financial Crisis, Matched Employer-Employee Data, Macroeconomic Shocks, Labor Demand
    Date: 2023–01
  23. By: Joelle M. Abi-Rached (Harvard University); Ishac Diwan (Finance for Development Lab, Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: The paper examines public budgets (tax revenues and expenditure patterns) in Lebanon and the four Syrian states that were created during the French Mandate (1920-1943). To do so, we reconstruct fiscal accounts through the annual reports to the Permanent Mandates Commission that the French authorities were required to publish. We then focus on the educational policies and achievement of the French Mandate in Lebanon. Our empirical work reveals clearly (i) how the French authorities used funds raised through local taxes to finance the French military and its security apparatus rather than infrastructure and social services; (ii) that education and health were made the prerogatives of private and missionary endeavors; and (iii) that a consequence of this laissez-faire policy was a private educational system tilted towards the education of Christians with a startlingly underserved Muslim population. We also compare these budgets with other French colonies in Africa and Asia. This sheds additional light on the rudimentary developmental effort that characterized French rule. What transpires is that compared to the North African colonies, the Mandate's economy in Lebanon was over-taxed, but that a smaller part of these revenues was spent on development. It is precisely this lack of strong public foundations of the state that put Lebanon on a path of privatization of essential social services.
    Date: 2022–12–20
  24. By: Kebede, Selamawit G. (University of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia); Heshmati, Almas (Jönköping University, Sogang University)
    Abstract: This study investigates the political economy of industrialization in Ethiopia. It discusses the economic and political institutions during three political regimes and assesses the industrial sector's performance across these different regimes. Further, it evaluates the different industrial strategies and organizational structures for implementing the industrial policies together with the current industrial park strategy and its contemporary impact on employment creation, export promotion, foreign exchange revenues, the value chain, and spillover effects. Both qualitative and quantitative approaches are used for exploring the role of political economy in Ethiopian industrialization. Different political strategies were followed by the political regimes to support the industrial sector. The paper distinguishes between two extreme political strategies of protectionist import substitution industrialization and the outward strategy of export-oriented industrialization. The study confirms that political institutions negatively impacted industry for several decades. The results support focusing on institutions to successfully implement industry policies for inducing the industrialization process in the country. Policies must be implemented considering existing opportunities and resources in the country along with their respective economic outcomes instead of excessive priority being given to the political interests of the regime in power.
    Keywords: industrialization, industrial parks, political economy, industrial strategy, industry growth, Ethiopia
    JEL: J24 O14 O25 O47 P48
    Date: 2023–01
  25. By: Danielsson, Jon; Valenzuela, Marcela; Zer, Ilknur
    Abstract: We investigate the effects of financial risk cycles on business cycles, using a panel spanning 73 countries since 1900. Agents use a Bayesian learning model to form their beliefs on risk. We construct a proxy of these beliefs and show that perceived low risk encourages risk-taking, augmenting growth at the cost of accumulating financial vulnerabilities, and therefore, a reversal in growth follows. The reversal is particularly pronounced when the low-risk environment persists and credit growth is excessive. Global-risk cycles have a stronger effect on growth than local-risk cycles via their impact on capital flows, investment, and debt-issuer quality.
    Keywords: stock market volatility; uncertainty; monetary policy independance; financial instability; risk-taking; global financial cycles; ES/K002309/1; OUP deal
    JEL: F30 G15 G18 N10 N20
    Date: 2022–12–13
  26. By: Rémy Herrera (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Date: 2022
  27. By: Prema-chandra Athukorala; Wanissa Suanin
    Abstract: This paper examines the national savings behaviour in the process of economic growth through a comparative analysis of countries in developing Asia from a historical perspective. Developing Asia provides an ideal laboratory for the study with considerable differences in the savings behaviour among countries and over time within individual countries, notwithstanding the 'model saver' image based on the average savings rate. The empirical analysis distinguishes between private and government savings rates, with specific emphasis on the former.
    Keywords: Saving, Life cycle, Export-led growth, Structural transformation, Asia
    Date: 2022
  28. By: Wilko Bolt; Jon Frost; Hyun Song Shin; Peter Wierts
    Abstract: Central banks can operate with negative equity, and many have done so in history without undermining trust in fiat money. However, there are limits. How negative can central bank equity be before fiat money loses credibility? We address this question using a global games approach motivated by the fall of the Bank of Amsterdam (1609–1820). We solve for the unique break point where negative equity and asset illiquidity renders fiat money worthless. We draw lessons on the role of fiscal support and central bank capital in sustaining trust in fiat money.
    Keywords: central banks, negative equity, fiat money, trust
    JEL: E42 E58 N13
    Date: 2023–01
  29. By: Cesare Righi; Davide Cannito; Theodor Vladasel
    Abstract: Despite their growing importance for rm innovation strategy and frequent appearance in U.S. patent policy debates, how continuing patent applications are used remains unclear. Turn-of-the-century reforms strongly limited opportunities to extend patent term and surprise competitors, but continuing applications have steadily risen since. We argue that they retain a subtle use, as applicants can file continuations to keep prosecution open and change patent scope after locking in gains with the initial patent. We document a sharp drop in parent abandonment and rise in continuations per original patent after the reforms. Continuing applications are more privately valuable than original patents, are led in more uncertain contexts, for higher value technologies, by more strategic applicants, and react strongly to the notice of allowance. The evidence supports a current strategic use of continuing applications to craft claims over time.
    Keywords: intellectual property, patent scope, continuation, divisional, innovation
    JEL: O31 O34 O38
    Date: 2023–01
  30. By: Cerón Moscoso, Nicolás; Martín Ianni, Juan; Pérez Caldentey, Esteban
    Abstract: Este ensayo analiza el rol que cumplen los derechos especiales de giro (DEG) en la arquitectura financiera internacional, resaltando sus limitantes. El DEG fue la respuesta al principal problema que aquejó la economía internacional entre 1920 y 1971: la insuficiencia de liquidez en la economía mundial. Más de medio siglo después de su creación, no ha cumplido con sus dos fines principales: ser el principal activo de reserva en la economía global y ser un instrumento central para manejar el ciclo económico global.
    Date: 2022–12–07
  31. By: Rémy Herrera (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Date: 2021–12
  32. By: Thierry Mayer; Gianluca Santoni; Vincent Vicard
    Abstract: This paper documents the CEPII Trade and Production Database (TradeProd), which provides data on international and domestic trade flows and trade protection. The database covers 162 countries and 9 industrial sectors over the period 1966-2018. TradeProd is intended for econometric estimation of the gravity equation and also includes a yearly balanced dataset necessary for counterfactual exercises using new quantitative trade models.
    Keywords: International Trade;Gravity Equation;Tariffs
    JEL: F14 F13
    Date: 2023–01
  33. By: Francesco Fusari (University of Surrey)
    Abstract: This paper proposes a new strategy for the identification of monetary policy shocks in structural vector autoregressions (SVARs). It combines traditional sign restrictions with external variable constraints on high-frequency monetary surprises and central bank’s macroeconomic projections. I use it to characterize the transmission of US monetary policy over the period 1965-2007. First, I find that contractionary monetary policy shocks unequivocally decrease output, sharpening the ambiguous implications of standard sign-restricted SVARs. Second, I show that the identified structural models are consistent with narrative sign restrictions and restrictions on the monetary policy equation. On the contrary, the shocks identified through these alternative methodologies turn out to be correlated with the information set of the central bank and to weakly comove with monetary surprises. Finally, I implement an algorithm for robust Bayesian inference in set-identified SVARs, providing further evidence in support of my identification strategy.
    JEL: E52 C51
    Date: 2023–01
  34. By: Pierre Januard (PHARE - Philosophie, Histoire et Analyse des Représentations Économiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)
    Abstract: In De emptione et venditione ad tempus, a brief early letter on forward selling, Thomas Aquinas presents a risk of usury inherent in the intertemporal dimension of exchange, but inherent also in licit expenses such as transport, and illicit ones such as borrowing costs or expenses incurred without attention or unwisely, which the merchant may or may not pass on via the price. These expenses appear as risks which are described here for the case of forward sale, but are properly inherent to any commercial activity. While transport is a part of the merchant's activity and represents the paradigm of licit risk, imprudence characterises two stages of failure in his management, namely negligence and mismanagement, and hence leads to illicit risk.
    Keywords: Thomas Aquinas, risks, expenses, transport, Prudence
    Date: 2022

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