nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2023‒01‒30
28 papers chosen by

  1. RAIL STATIONS TO DEVELOPMENT: EVIDENCE FROM COLONIAL MALAYA By Yit Wey Liew; Muhammad Habibur Rahman; Audrey Kim Lan Siah
  2. Nineteenth and Early 20th Century Physical Activity and Calories by Gender and Race By Scott Alan Carson; Scott A. Carson
  3. The meaning of class struggle: Marx and the 1848 june days By Leipold, Bruno
  4. Portfolio advice before modern portfolio theory : the Belle Époque for french analyst Alfred Neymarck By Maxime Merli; Antoine Parent; Cécile Edlinger
  5. How Law and Economics Was Marketed in a Hostile World : l’institutionnalisation du champ aux États-Unis de l’immédiat après-guerre aux années Reagan By Thierry Kirat; Frédéric Marty
  6. The Black Death and the origin of the European marriage pattern By Jeremy Edwards; Sheilagh Ogilvie
  7. « L’Allemagne paiera » (1918-1932) By Vincent Touzé
  8. Dissecting the Sinews of Power: International Trade and the Rise of Britain’s Fiscal-Military State, 1689-1823 By Ernesto Dal Bó; Karolina Hutková; Lukas Leucht; Noam Yuchtman
  9. A Historical Note on the Assimilation Rates of Foreign-Born Women in the U.S. By Duleep, Harriet; Dowhan, Dan; Liu, Xingfei
  10. “She was a sort of Apostle” By Cyrille Ferraton; Ludovic Frobert
  11. Three essays on spatial frictions By Pierre Cotterlaz
  12. Who Divorces Whom: Unilateral Divorce Legislation and the Educational Structure of Marriage By Geghetsik Afunts; Stepan Jurajda
  13. Early warnings and emerging accountability: Total’s responses to global warming, 1968-2021 By Christophe Bonneuil; Pierre-Louis Choquet; Benjamin Franta
  14. La refondation de l'industrie chimique française de l'azote au lendemain du traité de Versailles à travers le parcours de l'un de ses protagonistes : Georges Patart (X 1889) By Frédéric Gannon
  15. The United States of Europe: A Gravity Model Evaluation of the Four Freedoms By Keith Head; Thierry Mayer
  16. Centenaire de la promulgation du Traité de Versailles (1920-2020). Regards croisés entre historiens et économistes sur les conséquences de la paix By Antoine Parent; Vincent Touzé
  17. Response to Guinnane and Hoffman: Medieval Anti-Semitism, Weimar Social Capital, and the Rise of the Nazi Party: A Reconsideration By Nico Voigtländer; Hans-Joachim Voth
  18. Dividend Signaling and Bank Payouts in the Great Financial Crisis By Ragnar E. Juelsrud; Plamen T. Nenov
  19. Why Did Gender Wage Convergence in the United States Stall? By Peter Blair; Benjamin Posmanick
  20. Estadística de los indicadores de equidad y pobreza en la población peruana 2019-2022 By Guillermo, Juan Carlos Lázaro; Carlos, Mariano Magdaleno Mendoza; Díaz, Ayda Guisella Ávalos; Espinoza, Jorge Luis Vargas; Vásquez, Humberto Escudero
  21. De la Grande Guerre à la National Recovery Administration (1917-1935) : Les arguments en faveur d'une concurrence régulée dans les États-Unis de l'entre-deux-guerres By Thierry Kirat; Frédéric Marty
  22. Russia’s Reaction Against Greece's Hostile Behaviors And Violations Of The Demilitarization Provisions Of The 1947 Paris Treaty By Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul
  23. Financial Crisis and Long-Run Labor Demand: Evidence from the Swedish Banking Crisis in the Early 90s By Julien Grenet; Hans Grönqvist; Daniel Jahnson
  24. A New Emerging U.S. Trade and Technology Policy? By Atkinson, Robert D.
  25. Pour une théorie historique de la financiarisation : droit des sociétés et transformation de l'espace public aux origines du capitalisme financier de masse en France By Christian Pradié
  26. Cultural Roots of Entrepreneurship By Kleinhempel, Johannes; Klasing, Mariko; Beugelsdijk, Sjoerd
  27. Demographic Correlates of Humanizing Language in Media Coverage of Crime: Evidence from the Boston Globe, 1976-84 By Ocasio, Emily; Potter, Tristan
  28. On the relative contributions of national and regional institutions to economic development By Daniel Aparicio-Pérez; Maria Teresa Balaguer-Coll; Emili Tortosa-Ausina

  1. By: Yit Wey Liew (Monash University); Muhammad Habibur Rahman (Durham University); Audrey Kim Lan Siah (Monash University)
    Abstract: This study examines how the historical rail stations condition long-run development, using Colonial Malaya as a laboratory. Constructing a novel historical data on rail stations, agglomeration centers, tin mines and rubber plantations dated back to a century and matching with contemporary data on economic activity at one-kilometer cell level, we find that the earlier a region obtains rail stations, the higher level of economic activity it performs today due to agglomeration economies. These results hold even in regions that have already abandoned colonial stations. This study signifies the role of investment on transport infrastructure to accelerate local economic activity.
    Date: 2023–01
  2. By: Scott Alan Carson; Scott A. Carson
    Abstract: When traditional measures for income and wealth are scarce or unreliable, alternative values are effective in measuring nutritional conditions during economic development. This study uses net nutrition and calories to illustrate that during the 19th and early 20th centuries that men required about 20 percent more calories per day than women. Individuals with darker complexions had greater BMRs and required more calories per day compared to fairer complexioned individuals; however, the difference was not large. Individuals born in the Great Lakes, Plains, and South required more calories per day than individuals from the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. Residence in the developing Northeast and Middle Atlantic was associated with the fewest regional calories per capita. Nineteenth and early 20th century calorie consumption was inversely related to inequality.
    Keywords: net nutrition, 19th and 20th century gender relations, 19th and 20th century race relations
    JEL: Q10 Q19 N11 N51
    Date: 2022
  3. By: Leipold, Bruno
    Abstract: Karl Marx characterized the 1848 June Days uprising as a class struggle between proletarians and the bourgeoisie. But modern investigations have shown that the insurgents actually consisted primarily of artisans and not proletarians. They have also undermined Marx’s claim that one of the primary forces used to defeat the insur-gency, the Mobile Guard, was recruited from the lumpenproletariat, when in fact they shared the same social background as the insurgents. As a result of these findings, crit-ics have questioned the adequacy of Marx’s class analysis and concluded that he was wrong to describe the June Days as a class struggle. I argue that the empirical findings represent serious shortcomings in Marx’s account and need to be properly incorpo-rated into our understanding of the uprising. However, I challenge the characterisation of Marx’s class analysis and show that though the June Days were not the class struggle that Marx presented, they were still a class struggle in his understanding of what class struggle means.
    Keywords: 1848 french revolution; artisans; class; class struggle; Journées de juin; June days; Karl Marx; lumpenproletariat; mobile guard; petty bourgeoisie; proletarians
    JEL: B14 B24 P2 P3
    Date: 2021–07–01
  4. By: Maxime Merli (UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg); Antoine Parent (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Cécile Edlinger (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: In this article, we propose an original analysis of advice given by financial analysts prior to WW1. Our article focuses on the writings of A. Neymarck, one of the most popular French analysts in the early 20th Century. The creation of portfolios from a new database composed of the monthly returns of all the security types listed on the official Paris Stock Exchange from 1903 to 1912 has provided results demonstrating that Neymarck correctly identified the risk in a number of sectors. The performances of these portfolios, which were built according to Neymarck's guidelines, confirm Neymarck's ranking in terms of both risk and return: the richer the investor, the riskier and the more profitable his portfolio was seen to be. Finally, the Modern Portfolio Theory enables us to pinpoint the few imperfections in Neymarck's advice, which globally appears to be driven by reliable financial analysis.
    Keywords: Portfolio advice, Diversification before WW1, Financial markets prior WW1
    Date: 2021
  5. By: Thierry Kirat (IRISSO - Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire en Sciences Sociales - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Frédéric Marty (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, CIRANO - Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations - UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal)
    Abstract: This article discusses the institutionalization of the field of Law and Economics in the United States from the post-war period to the Reagan administration. It emphasizes the role of pro-market corporate foundations in the development of Law and Economics. It analyses individual and collective trajectories, including research projects, judges training programs, and leading academics contributions and judicial and administrative careers. It ultimately focuses on the impact of this institutionalization on judging methods.
    Abstract: Cet article traite de l'institutionnalisation du champ de la Law and Economics aux Etats-Unis de l'après-guerre aux années Reagan. Il met l'accent sur le rôle de fondations d'entreprises pro-marché dans l'essor de la Law and Economics et s'appuie sur l'analyse de trajectoires individuelles ou collectives, qu'il s'agisse de projets de recherche, de programmes de formation des juges ou encore de travaux académiques et de carrières judiciaires et administratives de théoriciens de premier plan. Il s'attache in fine à l'impact de cette institutionnalisation sur les manières de juger
    Keywords: conservatism, antitrust, foundations, law and economics, fondations, économie du droit, conservatisme
    Date: 2021–03–08
  6. By: Jeremy Edwards; Sheilagh Ogilvie
    Abstract: This paper evaluates criticisms of our view that there is no evidence of the Black Death having caused the European Marriage Pattern. The attempt by Nico Voigtländer and Hans-Joachim Voth to rebut our argument fails completely. Their claim that we distort the historical evidence is entirely without foundation. They do not engage with the fact that historical demographers are widely divided on when this marriage pattern emerged and that the data are too fragile for any definitive conclusions about the period before c. 1540. They sidestep the logic of their own model, refusing to acknowledge that the factual inaccuracy of one key assumption makes the model completely inapplicable to demographic behaviour in England after the Black Death. They repeatedly refer to evidence on demographic behaviour centuries later than the Black Death with no attempt to explain how it could be relevant to the aftermath of that pandemic. This weakness also applies to the econometric evidence they adduce, but that evidence is further vitiated by the invalidity of the instrumental variables they use.
  7. By: Vincent Touzé (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: Les réparations allemandes destinées aux pays vainqueurs de la Première Guerre mondiale constituent une brève histoire qui s'étend de 1918 à 1932. Bien que courte, cette période est intense en événements politiques et économiques qui vont faire du Traité de Versailles un échec, ou tout du moins, un armistice prolongé jusqu'au retour des premières hostilités de 1939. Cet article essaie de comprendre comment la résolution du choc de réallocation d'actifs/passifs provoqué par la Première Guerre mondiale – les Alliés se sont fortement endettés auprès des Américains ; l'Allemagne doit s'acquitter d'une lourde obligation de réparations – a animé la période de l'entre-deux-guerres. L'article revient sur les attentes politiques et économiques au moment de la rédaction du traité de paix. Il montre également comment la question du paiement des réparations a été liée à celle du règlement des dettes interalliées conduisant à des stratégies non coordonnées et finalement à l'abandon des créances. Enfin, est développée dans cet article, de façon inédite, une analyse cliométrique contrefactuelle à l'aide d'un modèle simple de finances publiques intertemporelles qui donne une mesure du besoin budgétaire et de l'impact intergénérationnel qu'aurait pu avoir le paiement des réparations s'il avait été intégralement honoré.
    Keywords: réparations, dettes interalliées, plan Dawes, plan Young, défaut de paiement, analyse cliométrique contrefactuelle
    Date: 2021–01–01
  8. By: Ernesto Dal Bó; Karolina Hutková; Lukas Leucht; Noam Yuchtman
    Abstract: We evaluate the role of taxes on trade in the development of imperial Britain’s fiscal-military state. Influential work, e.g., Brewer’s (1989) "Sinews of Power, " attributed increased fiscal capacity to the taxation of domestic, rather than traded, goods: excise revenues, coarsely associated with domestic goods, grew faster than customs revenues. We construct new historical revenue series disaggregating excise revenues from traded and domestic goods. We find substantial growth in taxes on traded goods, accounting for over half of indirect taxation around 1800. This challenges the conventional wisdom attributing the development of the British state to domestic factors: international factors mattered, too.
    JEL: H2 N43 P1
    Date: 2022–12
  9. By: Duleep, Harriet; Dowhan, Dan; Liu, Xingfei
    Abstract: Using historical, longitudinal data on individuals, we track the earnings of immigrant and U.S.-born women. Following individuals, instead of synthetic cohorts, avoids biases in earnings-growth estimates caused by compositional changes in the cohorts that are followed. The historical data contradict key predictions of the Family Investment Hypothesis, shed light on its genesis, and inform its further testing. Challenging the perception that the quality of U.S. immigrants fell after the 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act, immigrant women, as previously found for immigrant men, have high earnings growth.
    Keywords: Immigrant earning growth, human capital investment, skill transferability, immigrant quality, sample restrictions, family investment model
    JEL: J15 J16 J24 J31 C1
    Date: 2023
  10. By: Cyrille Ferraton (UMR ART-Dev - Acteurs, Ressources et Territoires dans le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UM - Université de Montpellier); Ludovic Frobert (TRIANGLE - Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: A former Saint-Simonian, but critical of the elitist direction taken by the school with Prosper Enfantin, Pauline Roland (1805-1852) became close to Pierre Leroux and his doctrine of Humanity. She explored possible alternatives to inegalitarian capitalism and reflected on the links between socialism and the Republic. This text details the characteristics of the democratic and social republic that Pauline Roland envisages within workers' associative practices.
    Abstract: Ancienne saint-simonienne mais critique de l'orientation élitiste prise par l'école avec Prosper Enfantin, Pauline Roland (1805-1852) se rapproche de Pierre Leroux et de sa doctrine de l'Humanité. Elle explore les alternatives possibles au capitalisme inégalitaire et réfléchit aux liens entre socialisme et République. Ce texte détaille les caractéristiques de la République démocratique et sociale qu'entrevoit Pauline Roland au sein des pratiques associatives ouvrières.
    Keywords: association, labour surveys, Republic, socialism, religion, enquêtes ouvrières, République, socialisme
    Date: 2022–06–01
  11. By: Pierre Cotterlaz (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Spatial frictions are key to explain many economic phenomena. This thesis provides three pieces of evidence on the origins, prevalence and consequences of such frictions.In the first chapter, we focus on spatial frictions in the diffusion of knowledge. We explain the puzzling persistence and stability of the spatial decay in patent citation flows by innovator networks. We establish that knowledge percolates: firms disproportionately cite new patents from prior contacts, and form links with contacts of their contacts. Embedding this percolation into a network formation model is sufficient to rationalize the negative link between aggregate knowledge flows and distance.In the second chapter, we shed some light on the role of spatial information frictions in shaping international trade flows. We use the specific context of the XIXth Century, during which the creation of international news agencies facilitated the transmission of information across countries. We show that trade between a pair of countries increases when both are covered by a news agency. The reduction in information friction was therefore one of the many factors behind the First Globalization.The last chapter investigates whether transport costs are the main component of within-country trade costs. While it is well-established that international trade costs are not limited to transport costs, evidence is much scarcer for intra-national trade flows. We use hurricane Sandy as a natural experiment shifting upwards transport costs in some areas of the US to establish that if transport costs were the sole driver of the distance elasticity of trade flows within the US, this distance elasticity would be much lower.
    Abstract: Les frictions spatiales jouent un rôle crucial dans l'explication de nombreux phénomènes économiques. Dans cette thèse, nous étudions les origines, la prévalence et les conséquences de telles frictions à travers trois exemples. Dans le premier chapitre, nous nous intéressons aux frictions spatiales pesant sur la diffusion de la connaissance. Nous expliquons l'effet négatif de la distance sur les flux de citations entre brevets par la structure des réseaux d'innovation. Nous montrons que la connaissance percole: les entreprises tendent à citer davantage les nouveaux brevets de leurs contacts existants, et à former de nouveaux liens avec des contacts de leurs contacts. Dans le second chapitre, nous explorons les liens entre frictions informationnelles et commerce international. Nous utilisons le contexte spécifique du XIXe siècle, au cours duquel émergent des agences de presse mondiales, facilitant le partage d'informations sur les marchés étrangers. Nous montrons que deux pays commercent davantage une fois qu'ils bénéficient de ce choc positif sur la capacité à obtenir de l'information. Les agences de presse s'insèrent donc parmi les nombreux facteurs explicatifs de la Première Mondialisation. Le dernier chapitre cherche à déterminer si les coûts de transport constituent l'essentiel des obstacles au commerce à l'intérieur d'un pays. Nous utilisons l'ouragan Sandy comme une expérience naturelle à l'origine d'une hausse des coûts de transport pour les flux transitant par certaines zones, et montrons que l'élasticité intra-USA des flux commerciaux à la distance serait bien plus faible si les coûts de transport étaient les seuls responsables de cette élasticité.
    Keywords: Trade costs, Innovation, Networks, News agencies, Coûts du commerce, Réseaux, Agences de presse
    Date: 2021–06–03
  12. By: Geghetsik Afunts; Stepan Jurajda
    Abstract: There is evidence that the introduction of unilateral divorce legislation (UDL) starting in the late 1960s increased US divorce rates. We ask whether making divorce easier affected the educational structure of marriage. Based on marriage and divorce certificate data covering 1970-1988, we provide new evidence on the evolution of the educational structure of marriage inflows (newlyweds) and outflows (divorces), and estimate UDL difference-in-differences effects on both flows. While UDL did not contribute to rising homogamy (the tendency towards married partners having the same level of education), it did affect the educational structure of marriage: it made generally unstable hypogamous couples (women marrying less educated partners) less likely to divorce, and it made homogamous couples more stable than hypergamous ones (women marrying more educated partners).
    Date: 2022–11
  13. By: Christophe Bonneuil (CRH (UMR 8558 CNRS / EHESS) - Centre de Recherches Historiques (CRH) _ Unité Mixte de Recherches (UMR 8558 CNRS / EHESS) - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Pierre-Louis Choquet (CSO - Centre de sociologie des organisations (Sciences Po, CNRS) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Benjamin Franta (Stanford University)
    Abstract: Building upon recent work on other major fossil fuel companies, we report new archival research and primary source interviews describing how Total responded to evolving climate science and policy in the last 50 years. We show that Total personnel received warnings of the potential for catastrophic global warming from its products by 1971, became more fully informed of the issue in the 1980s, began promoting doubt regarding the scientific basis for global warming by the late 1980s, and ultimately settled on a position in the late 1990s of publicly accepting climate science while promoting policy delay or policies peripheral to fossil fuel control. Additionally, we find that Exxon, through the International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association (IPIECA), coordinated an international campaign to dispute climate science and weaken international climate policy, beginning in the 1980s. This represents one of the first longitudinal studies of a major fossil fuel company's responses to global warming to the present, describing historical stages of awareness, preparation, denial, and delay.
    Keywords: Oil industry, Climate change, Global warming, Agnotology, Denial, Public relations
    Date: 2021
  14. By: Frédéric Gannon (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: Cet article retrace de manière succincte la phase de refondation de l'industrie française de l'ammoniac de synthèse depuis le Traité de Versailles jusqu'au vote de la loi du 11 avril 1924 instituant l'Office National Industriel de l'Azote (ONIA), ouvrant la voie à la construction de l'usine de Toulouse sur une période de quatre années. La première production d'ammoniaque sortit exactement trois ans plus tard. Si l'article 297 du Traité stipulait que l'Allemagne devait concéder ses brevets aux Alliés, il apparut très vite que cette condition nécessaire n'était pas suffisante et qu'il fallait négocier avec les dirigeants de la société BASF, détentrice du brevet Haber-Bosch de fabrication synthétique de l'ammoniaque, pour le transfert effectif des procédés, pratiques complexes de cette fabrication. En outre, les débats qui opposèrent à la fois les chimistes, les dirigeants des principales entreprises chimiques privées et l'État français retardèrent la refondation initialement espérée à la fin du conflit d'une industrie qui accusait un retard important relativement à son homologue allemande qui de son côté se cartellisait, s'unissait et se développait. Dans cette description s'appuyant sur une littérature abondante, une place particulière est accordée à l'un des protagonistes de cet épisode de la reconstruction de l'appareil de production national, Georges Patart (X 1889), inspecteur général du Service des poudres et explosifs et chimiste, inventeur de la synthèse du méthanol, qui défendit très tôt le procédé Haber-Bosch et parvint à l'imposer comme choix national.
    Keywords: industrie chimique de l’azote, brevets, entre-deux-guerres
    Date: 2021–01–01
  15. By: Keith Head (UBC - University of British Columbia); Thierry Mayer (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: One of the pillars of the 1957 Treaty of Rome that ultimately led to the European Union is the commitment to the four freedoms of movement (goods, services, persons, and capital). Over the following decades, as the members expanded in numbers, they also sought to deepen the integration amongst themselves in all four dimensions. This paper estimates the success of these policies based primarily on a gravity framework. Distinct from past evaluations, we augment the traditional equation for international flows with the corresponding intra-national flows, permitting us to distinguish welfare-improving reductions in frictions from Fortress-Europe effects. We complement the gravity approach by measuring the extent of price convergence. We compare both quantity and price assessments of free movement with corresponding estimates for the 50 American states.
    Date: 2021–05–01
  16. By: Antoine Parent (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Vincent Touzé (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: L'OFCE a organisé le 10 janvier 2020 un colloque qui réunissait historiens et économistes pour commémorer le centenaire de la promulgation du Traité de paix de Versailles. Le 10 janvier 1920 fut en effet un moment historique où la guerre prit officiellement fin à 16h15 après l'échange des ratifications dans le salon de l'Horloge du quai d'Orsay à Paris. Cette promulgation permettait enfin la reprise de relations normalisées entre les Alliés et l'Allemagne. Le sujet central de la conférence portait sur les conséquences de la paix. L'approche retenue dans cette conférence était didactique et couvrait, par conséquent, de nombreux thèmes. À l'issue de cette conférence fut lancé un appel à contributions dont ce numéro rassemble les articles sélectionnés. [Premier paragraphe]
    Keywords: centenaire, Traité de Versailles, promulgation, conséquences de la paix
    Date: 2021–02–01
  17. By: Nico Voigtländer; Hans-Joachim Voth
    Abstract: Guinnane and Hoffman (subsequently GH) comment on two of our papers: Voigtländer and Voth: “Persecution Perpetuated” (2012, subsequently PP) and Satyanath, Voigtländer and Voth: Bowling for Fascism (2017, subsequently BF). They allege that our econometric results are fragile and depend on outliers in the state of Bavaria; that our results do not account for the role of institutional actors, and that we ‘misinterpret’ history. This brief response addresses these allegations and shows that i) GH’s empirical criticisms are targeted at small subsets of our results; ii) use ad hoc, restrictive specifications – standard procedures to address GH’s concerns about outliers actually confirm our results; iii) GH’s conceptual critique is misguided and based on a misrepresentation of Weimar history, especially when it comes to the case of Bavaria. In sum, the empirical findings in PP and BF stand as in our original publications.
    Date: 2022
  18. By: Ragnar E. Juelsrud; Plamen T. Nenov
    Abstract: We study the dividend payouts of U.S. banks during the 2008 financial crisis. Using a difference-in-differences methodology, we shows that banks with higher share of short-term liabilities to total liabilities, which were thus more exposed to the rollover crisis that took place in 2008, increased their dividend payouts relative to less exposed banks. This relative increase in dividend payouts is concentrated in relatively cash-rich banks. The dividend payout increase was associated with a short-run increase in stock valuations. We argue that this front-loading of dividends of more exposed banks is consistent with a theory of dividend payouts, in which the payout policy has a (short-run) stabilizing role on the bank’s liquidity position by signaling information to short-term lenders about the bank’s available liquidity.
    Keywords: payout policies, dividend signaling, rollover crises, bank runs, liquidity crises
    JEL: G01 G21 G35
    Date: 2022–11–09
  19. By: Peter Blair (Harvard Graduate School of Education); Benjamin Posmanick (St. Bonaventure University)
    Abstract: During the 1980s, the wage gap between white women and white men in the US declined by approximately 1 percentage point per year. In the decades since, the rate of gender wage convergence has stalled to less than one-third of its previous value. An outstanding puzzle in economics is ``why did gender wage convergence in the US stall?'' Using an event study design that exploits the timing of state and federal family-leave policies, we show that the introduction of the policies can explain 94% of the reduction in the rate of gender wage convergence that is unaccounted for after controlling for changes in observable characteristics of workers. If gender wage convergence had continued at the pre-family leave rate, wage parity between white women and white men would have been achieved as early as 2017.
    Keywords: gender wage gap, Family and Medical Leave Act, family leave
    JEL: J16 J31 J32
    Date: 2023–01
  20. By: Guillermo, Juan Carlos Lázaro; Carlos, Mariano Magdaleno Mendoza; Díaz, Ayda Guisella Ávalos; Espinoza, Jorge Luis Vargas; Vásquez, Humberto Escudero
    Abstract: Desde el siglo XI hasta mediados del siglo XVII, la mayor parte del territorio del Perú estuvo bajo el control del Imperio Inca. Allí se asentó un grupo muy unido de comunas agrícolas fijas, relativamente autónomas en su organización económica pero altamente integradas comercial, cultural y militarmente a través de una extensa serie de caminos y canales. Alrededor de 1530, por orden de Francisco Pizarro, los españoles conquistaron estos territorios, dando como resultado el Virreinato del Perú. Esta nueva organización política significó un cambio en la base económica de la sociedad a una feudal, dominada por el liderazgo militar y eclesiástico, basada principalmente en la extracción de oro y plata, y que mantuvo el monopolio del comercio colonial. Durante este período se sentaron las bases de la estructura económica peruana hasta principios del siglo XX (Mariátegui, 1928). Alrededor de 1770 ocurrieron tres hechos relacionados que afectaron la organización de la economía colonial. El primero de ellos fue una serie de reformas políticas que llevaron al nombramiento del gobernador del Río de la Plata y de los capitanes de Chile y Quito, otorgándoles autonomía administrativa y financiera, lo que supuso la pérdida de rentas y privilegios de las minas de Potosí en Lima, en el sur de America. El comercio ha existido durante más de dos siglos. El segundo fue el crecimiento de la población debido a la llegada de inmigrantes españoles y africanos, y el tercero fue una serie de reformas del gobierno borbónico que aumentaron los mercados y la producción local. Si bien las dos últimas tuvieron efectos positivos, la primera transición tuvo resultados negativos, lo que indica que la economía peruana entró en un ciclo de cambio en ese momento, incluso antes de la lucha por la independencia (Contreras C., 2010).La minería fue el centro de la economía del virreinato. Los principales centros mineros fueron Potosí (actual Bolivia, en ese momento: "Alto Perú"), Cerro de Pasco y Huancavelica (actual República del Perú, en ese momento: "Bajo Perú"). La riqueza minera de Potosí es significativa, ya que aproximadamente el 70% de la plata total extraída en el virreinato proviene de este yacimiento. La minería de metales se realizaba mediante un sistema de explotación llamada "mita" o mano de obra esclava local (principalmente en Potosí). En cuanto a la técnica utilizada, consiste en mezclar la plata extraída con mercurio para purificarla. Sin embargo, la industria minera mostró signos de estancamiento al final del período colonial después de 1795.
    Date: 2022–09–27
  21. By: Thierry Kirat (IRISSO - Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire en Sciences Sociales - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Frédéric Marty (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: L'expérience de l'économie de guerre a renforcé aux États-Unis l'influence d'arguments en faveur d'une concurrence organisée. Étendant les prescriptions du management scientifique des firmes à l'ensemble de l'économie, cette approche visait leur coordination par des échanges d'informations. Cette dernière était vue à la fois comme une nécessité en termes d'efficacité économique et de réponse aux fluctuations cycliques. Une telle perspective conduisait à réduire drastiquement la portée des règles de concurrence.Cependant, des propositions faites lors de la crise de 1929 conduisirent à reproduire en temps de paix l'expérience de l'économie de guerre au risque de mener l'économie américaine à une cartellisation sous l'égide de l'État fédéral.Elles furent rejetées par le Président Hoover pourtant défenseur dans les années1920 d'un modèle de concurrence régulée. Ces projets furent paradoxalement repris par le Président Roosevelt dans le cadre du premier New Deal. Cet article traite des arguments qui furent avancés pour s'abstraire des règles de concurrence et explique pourquoi l'administration démocrate décida finalement de revenir à une activation résolue du Sherman Act
    Keywords: économie de guerre, cartellisation, règles de concurrence, management scientifique, échanges d'information
    Date: 2021–03–04
  22. By: Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul (Center For Eurasian Studies (AVİM))
    Abstract: Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova made a statement on 19 December 2022 regarding Greece's intentions to start supplying Ukraine with S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems. Ambassador Andrey Maslov, Ambassador of the Russian Federation to Athens, stated on July 26, 2022, "Since the end of February, our bilateral relations have been destroyed, they no longer exist". Greece increasingly pursues a revisionist policy in the Eastern Mediterranean region and Aegean. The Dodecanese were ceded to Greece with Article 14 of the 1947 Paris Treaty of Peace between the Allied Powers and Italy. It is a known fact that Greece continues to militarize these islands, openly violates an important Treaty that ended the Second World War.
    Date: 2022–12–28
  23. By: Julien Grenet (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Hans Grönqvist (Uppsala University, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Daniel Jahnson (Uppsala University)
    Abstract: The Swedish banking crisis in the early 90s counts as one of the five most severe financial crises in history. We examine how firms more exposed to this event adjusted employment in the longrun and the mechanisms involved. Our analysis draws on matched employer-employee data containing the financial statements for a large sample of firms. Our difference-indifferences estimates show that firms with a greater pre-crisis debt burden experienced more difficulties in accessing external capital during the crisis compared to firms with lower baseline debts. This is consistent with the most exposed firms becoming financially constrained. More exposed firms exhibit stronger downward employment adjustments than less exposed firms, and the reductions are mainly concentrated among low-skilled workers. Employment in more exposed firms started to recover four years after the crisis and had fully recuperated about a decade later. These firms also temporarily saw a larger drop in both productivity and investment. We do not find a significant effect on the wage bill, and the estimates are precise enough to rule out even moderate effect sizes.
    Keywords: Financial Crisis, Matched Employer-Employee Data, Macroeconomic Shocks, Labor Demand
    Date: 2023–01
  24. By: Atkinson, Robert D. (Information Technology and Innovation Foundation)
    Abstract: Since the end of WWII, the United States was the leading force globally for free trade. Since the early 1980s, it was also the leading force for laissezfaire economics, promoting the “Washington Consensus” of limited government and free markets, both at home and abroad. That era has ended. The United States now sees itself as in intense competition for high valueadded production with other nations, especially China. And many in both parties now see some kind of national competitiveness strategy, including policies to support advanced industries, as a critical component of U.S. economic policy. This change is not temporary—the result of a particular president in the White House—rather, it is long-term and structural. As such, other nations will need to recalibrate their thinking about U.S. trade and economic policy.
    Keywords: U.S. Economic Policy; Washington Consensus; Free markets; Free trade
    JEL: F13 O24 O25
    Date: 2022–06–27
  25. By: Christian Pradié (UPHF - Université Polytechnique Hauts-de-France, IRMÉCCEN - Institut de Recherche Médias, Cultures, Communication et Numérique - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - LABEX ICCA - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord)
    Date: 2022–10–06
  26. By: Kleinhempel, Johannes; Klasing, Mariko; Beugelsdijk, Sjoerd
    Abstract: Does national culture influence entrepreneurship? Given that entrepreneurship and the economic, formal institutional, and cultural characteristics of nations are deeply intertwined and co-vary, it is difficult to isolate the effect of culture on entrepreneurship. In this study, we examine the self-employment choices of second-generation immigrants who were born, educated, and currently live in one country, but were raised by parents stemming from another country. We argue that entrepreneurship is influenced by durable, portable, and intergenerationally transmitted cultural imprints such that second-generation immigrants are more likely to become entrepreneurs if their parents originate from countries characterized by a strong entrepreneurial culture. Our multilevel analysis of two independent samples –65, 323 second-generation immigrants of 52 different ancestries who were born, raised, and live in the United States and 4, 165 second-generation immigrants of 31 ancestries in Europe– shows that entrepreneurial culture is positively associated with the likelihood that individuals are entrepreneurs. Our results are robust to alternative non-cultural explanations, such as differences in resource holdings, labor market discrimination, and direct parent-child linkages. Overall, our study highlights the durability, portability, and intergenerational transmission of entrepreneurial culture as well as the profound impact of national culture on entrepreneurship.
    Keywords: Entrepreneurship, National culture, Cross-Cultural Studies
    JEL: A13 J24 J61 L26 M13 M16 O57 Z10 Z13
    Date: 2022–12
  27. By: Ocasio, Emily (The New School of Northern Virginia); Potter, Tristan (Drexel University)
    Abstract: Media coverage of violent crime both reflects and shapes how society perceives members of different demographic groups. For this reason, determining whether media coverage systematically differs across demographic groups can provide insight into societal assessments of the newsworthiness—and thus the humanity—of different groups, as well as the influence of the media in perpetuating such assessments. We merge FBI data on homicides in Massachusetts between 1976 and 1984 with the corresponding Boston Globe articles covering those homicides to study how the race, age, and sex of homicide victims and offenders interact to shape the quantity of media coverage (number of articles) and quality of media coverage (use of humanizing language as determined by NLP-assisted content analysis). Our analysis reveals rich patterns of differential media coverage across groups and subgroups, even after controlling for a battery of homicide specific confounding factors. Specifically, we document that:(i)among male homicide victims, the probability of humanizing coverage is significantly higher for white victims than for black victims, with a difference of 30 percentage points for juveniles(
    Keywords: Media distortion analysis; Natural language processing; Intersectional analysis; Ideal victim theory
    JEL: C55 L82 Z13
    Date: 2022–12–30
  28. By: Daniel Aparicio-Pérez (Department of Finance and Accounting, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Maria Teresa Balaguer-Coll (Department of Finance and Accounting, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Emili Tortosa-Ausina (IVIE, Valencia and IIDL and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)
    Abstract: Institutions have been proved as a fundamental driver of long-run growth (Acemoglu et al., 2005) and, therefore, their functioning, i.e., their quality of governance, is a well-known theoretical fact in the literature on economic growth, which has been widely studied at both country and regional levels. Nevertheless, there is a lack of literature on how this relationship behaves when considering the hierarchical structure that regions and countries present. To solve this problem, we propose a novel approximation to the question, relying on multilevel econometric techniques, highly applied in other fields such as education or psychology, but much less employed in economics. We empirically analyze how much of the effect shown by the quality of government on the economic development of a given region can be attributed to the quality of government of its belonging cluster i.e the country. We argue that ignoring the multilevel logic may lead to overweighting the real influence of regional governance quality and, conversely, under-weighting (or directly overlooking) the effect of the country’s governance quality on the economic development of a given region. We show empirically that the aggregate framework (and its quality) given by the national level of institutions outweighs the effect that lower government ties may present on the economic development of a region.
    Keywords: economic development; Europe; quality of government; multilevel; regions
    JEL: D04 E02 H7 H11 O43
    Date: 2023

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.