nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2023‒01‒16
thirty-one papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Northumbria University

  1. Medieval Anti-Semitism, Weimar Social Capital, and the Rise of the Nazi Party: A Reconsideration By Guinnane, T. W.; Hoffman, P.
  2. Wealth and its Distribution in Germany, 1895-2018 By Thilo N H Albers; Charlotte Bartels; Moritz Schularick
  3. The scalpel and the ledger: Finance, medicine and the making of a professional life in Ireland, India and Britain, 1888-1921 By Cassidy, Daniel; Fitzpatrick, Kieran
  4. The loser's long curse: electoral consequences of a class conflict By Jaakko Meriläinen; Matti Mitrunen
  5. Historical roots, cultural selection and the ‘New World Order’ By Miller, Marcus
  6. The best job in the world: breadwinning and the capture of household labour in nineteenth and early twentieth-century British coal mining By Humphries, Jane; Thomas, Ryah
  7. Job tenure and unskilled workers before the Industrial Revolution: St Paul’s Cathedral 1672-1748 By Wallis, Patrick
  8. The Anatomy of the Global Saving Glut By Luis Buluz; Filip Novokmet; Moritz Schularick
  9. Establishment History Panel 1975-2021 By Ganzer, Andreas; Schmucker, Alexandra; Stegmaier, Jens; Wolter, Stefanie
  10. On the modernity of Carl Menger: criss-cross views. Roundtable conversation By Gilles Campagnolo; Sandye Gloria; Heinz Kurz; Richard Sturn
  11. The Dynamic Consequences of State-Building: Evidence from the French Revolution By Cédric Chambru; Emeric Henry; Benjamin Marx
  12. The Political Economy of Populism By Sergei Guriev; Elias Papaioannou
  13. Building Trust in the International Monetary System The different cases of commodity money and fiat money. de Giovanni Battista Pittaluga et Elena Seghezza Frontiers in Economic History, Springer, 2021 (274 pages) By François Facchini
  14. How the Phillips Curve Shaped Full Employment Policy in the 1970s: The Debates on the Humphrey-Hawkins Act By Aurélien Goutsmedt
  15. Demografía y economía del departamento de Córdoba, 1951-2019 By Jaime Bonet-Morón; María Aguilera-Díaz
  16. Art and Markets in the Greco-Roman World By Federico Etro
  17. Carl Menger on time and entrepreneurship By Gilles Campagnolo
  18. We do not know the Population of Every Country in the World for the Past Two Thousand Years By Guinnane, T. W.
  19. Immigration, Innovation, and Growth By Stephen J Terry; Thomas Chaney; Konrad B Burchardi; Lisa Tarquinio; Tarek A Hassan
  20. A Review of the Biology, Ecology, and Management of the South American Locust, Schistocerca cancellata (Serville, 1838), and Future Prospects By Eduardo V Trumper; Arianne J Cease; María Marta Cigliano; Fernando Copa Bazán; Carlos E Lange; Héctor E Medina; Rick P Overson; Clara Therville; Martina E Pocco; Cyril Piou; Gustavo Zagaglia; David Hunter
  21. Stubborn Historical Legacies: Power Relations and Government Policy in Sudan By Nada Ali
  22. The Long-run Effects of the 1930s Redlining Maps on Children By Daniel Aaronson; Daniel Hartley; Bhashkar Mazumder; Martha Stinson
  23. Coups and Economic Crises By Bjørnskov, Christian
  24. Ideas Have Consequences: The Impact of Law and Economics on American Justice By Chen, Daniel L.; Ash, Elliott; Naidu, Suresh
  25. The making (and unmaking) of Uganda's ethnic-based decentralization programme By Adventino Banjwa
  26. Who Divorces Whom: Unilateral Divorce Legislation and the Educational Structure of Marriage By Afunts, Geghetsik; Jurajda, Štepán
  27. The legacy of church-state conflict: Evidence from Nazi repression of Catholic priests By Leonid Peisakhin; Didac Queralt
  28. Traumatic Experiences Adversely Affect Life Cycle Labor Market Outcomes of the Next Generation - Evidence from WWII Nazi Raids. By Vincenzo Atella; Edoardo Di Porto; Joanna Kopinska; Maarten Lindeboom
  29. Was Menger Aristotelian? A Rejoinder and Clarification By Gilles Campagnolo
  30. Superstar Returns By Francisco Amaral; Martin Dohmen; Sebastian Kohl; Moritz Schularick
  31. Compensation to Israeli Holocaust Survivors and the Human Capital of Their Children By Shay Tsur

  1. By: Guinnane, T. W.; Hoffman, P.
    Abstract: The persistence literature in economics and related disciplines connects recent outcomes to events long ago. This influential literature marks a promising development but has drawn criticism. We discuss two prominent examples that ground the rise of the Nazi Party in distant historical roots. Several econometric, analytical, and historical errors undermine the papers’ contention that deeply rooted culture and social capital fueled the Nazi rise. The broader lesson is that research of this type works best when it incorporates careful econometrics, serious consideration of underlying mechanisms (including formal theory), and, most important, scrupulous attention to history and to the limitations of historical data.
    Keywords: Historical persistence, medieval pogroms, social capital, culture, networks, Nazism, voting behavior, anti-Semitism, political parties, religion, empirical economics, data based estimates, econometrics
    JEL: C18 D71 D72 D85 D91 L14 N01 N13 N14 Z10 Z12
    Date: 2022–12–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2271&r=his
  2. By: Thilo N H Albers (Humboldt University Of Berlin, Lund University [Lund]); Charlotte Bartels (DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics); Moritz Schularick (University of Bonn, ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR)
    Abstract: German history over the past 125 years has been turbulent. Marked by two world wars, revolutions and major regime changes, as well as a hyperinflation and three currency reforms, expropriations and territorial divisions, it provides unique insights into the role of country-specific shocks in shaping long-run wealth dynamics. This paper presents the first comprehensive study of wealth and its distribution in Germany since the 19th century. We combine tax and archival data, household surveys, historical national accounts, and rich lists to analyze the evolution of the German wealth distribution over the long run. We show that the top 1% wealth share has fallen by half, from close to 50% in 1895 to 27% today. Nearly all of this decline was the result of changes that occurred between 1914 and 1952. The interwar period and the wealth taxation in the aftermath of World War II stand out as the great equalizers in 20 th century German history. After unification in 1990, two trends have left their mark on the German wealth distribution. Households at the top made substantial capital gains from rising business wealth while the middle-class had large capital gains in the housing market. The wealth share of the bottom 50% halved since 1990. Our findings speak to the importance of historical shocks to the distribution and valuations of existing wealth in explaining the evolution of the wealth distribution over the long run.
    Keywords: Wealth inequality, Portfolio heterogeneity, Saving, Wealth taxation
    Date: 2022–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03881506&r=his
  3. By: Cassidy, Daniel; Fitzpatrick, Kieran
    Abstract: By the time of his death in September 1921, Peter Johnstone Freyer was an extremely wealthy man. After an education at Queen's College Galway, his medical career had been defined by colonial service in India, and the establishment of a successful surgery and consultancy on London's Harley Street. In public, these hallmarks of his career led to him being described by his contemporaries as amongst medicine's most prominent figures, and as a 'great surgeon' by newspapers the length of and breadth of the United Kingdom on the occasion of his death. However, his private papers show that his medical practice was only responsible for a small part of his material success; two-thirds of his wealth was derived from his skill, exercised in private, as an investor in financial markets. By establishing his history as an investor, and comparing it to his public profile in medicine, this paper traces the social and cultural histories of professional identity in late-Victorian and Edwardian London. Over the course of its arc, it demonstrates how medicine's public significance in this period was part of a broader, middle-class, professional culture concerned with the accrual of 'virtual' wealth, the construction of advantageous social networks, and the tapping of capital in multiple forms. In sum, Freyer's career reflects the symbolic meaning of publicly wielding a scalpel, whilst privately managing a portfolio of financial ledgers.
    Keywords: Financial markets, investment, risk
    JEL: G41 N2 N3
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:eabhps:2202&r=his
  4. By: Jaakko Meriläinen; Matti Mitrunen
    Abstract: This paper presents evidence of political legacies of exposure to a violent class conflict over 100 years. We revisit the Finnish Civil War of 1918 and first trace out the impact of local conflict exposure on electoral outcomes over a quarter-century period between the World Wars. The electoral performance of left-wing parties that backed the insurgents was persistently and negatively affected by civil war casualties on both sides of the conflict.
    Keywords: Civil conflict, Class, Elections, Politics, Conflict, War
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2022-163&r=his
  5. By: Miller, Marcus (University of Warwick, CAGE and CEPR)
    Abstract: Francis Fukuyama’s bold prediction that Western liberal democracy is ‘the final form of human government’ was promptly challenged by Samuel Huntington, who foresaw the future as a continuing clash of civilisations. This latter view has found support in the recent Beijing declaration by China and Russia of a ‘New World Order’ with distinct spheres of influence for different cultures. After discussing the contrast between such historical perspectives (of ‘immaculate convergence’ versus cultural diversity), we outline two accounts of how forms of governance emerge from competitive struggle (either domestically or between nation states). However, to set the scene for applying these perspectives to current events, the paper begins with a summary of three eras of political economy post World War II - including the current ‘age of the strongman’, to use the terminology of Gideon Rachman. Subsequently, these various perspectives are employed to see what light they may throw on the disastrous turn of events following the Beijing declaration, with a focus on Russia, where the history of a powerful central state has played a crucial role. How enduring the Russian example may prove in the Darwinian struggle of cultural competition is, of course, a key issue for our time.
    Keywords: Individualism ; Collectivism ; Culture ; Social Contracts ; Social preferences ; Neofeudalism ; Despotism ; New World Order. JEL Codes: C70 ; C73 ; N00 ; P00 ; P50 ; Z10 ; Z13
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:647&r=his
  6. By: Humphries, Jane; Thomas, Ryah
    Abstract: This article explores the effects of gender inequality and women's disempowerment in the context of historical coalmining. Across the United States and Europe, ex-coalmining regions are characterized by significant deprivation. While there are many reasons for persistent problems, this study focuses on the restrictions imposed on women's involvement in economic life. Families in mining communities exemplified the male breadwinner structure, in which men's earnings supported wives and children who provided domestic services in return. Using evidence from Britain, this article exposes a different reality of household economics characterized by dominance and subordination: All family members were integrated into the coalmining production process and the creation of profit. Women's unpaid work did not simply provide domestic comfort; it transferred well-being from women and children to men and simultaneously contributed to the colliery companies’ profits. These findings revise accounts of mining families while explaining the intransigence of deprivation in ex-coalmining areas.
    Keywords: family wage; women's labor force participation; economics of the family
    JEL: A14 D10 J22
    Date: 2022–12–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:112186&r=his
  7. By: Wallis, Patrick
    Abstract: How were unskilled workers selected and hired in preindustrial labour markets? We exploit records from the rebuilding of St. Paul’s Cathedral, London (1672–1748) to analyze the hiring and employment history of over one thousand general building labourers, the benchmark category of ‘unskilled’ workers in long-run wage series. Despite volatile demand, St. Paul’s created a stable workforce by rewarding the tenure of long-standing workers. More senior workers received more days of work each month, preference when jobs were scarce, and the opportunity to earn additional income. We find the cathedral’s strategy consistent with reducing hiring frictions and turnover costs.
    JEL: N33 N63 J21 J22 J23
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:117264&r=his
  8. By: Luis Buluz (University of Bonn, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Filip Novokmet (University of Bonn); Moritz Schularick (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, University of Bonn, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR)
    Abstract: This paper provides a household-level perspective on the rise of global saving and wealth since the 1980s. We calculate asset-specific saving flows and capital gains across the wealth distribution for the G3 economies – the U.S., Europe, and China. In the past four decades, global saving inequality has risen sharply. The share of household saving flows coming from the richest 10% of household increased by 60% while saving of middle class households has fallen sharply. The most important source for the surge in top-10% saving was the secular rise of global corporate saving whose ultimate owners the rich households are. Housing capital gains have supported wealth growth for middle-class households despite falling saving and rising debt. Without meaningful capital gains in risky assets, the wealth share of the bottom half of the population declined substantially in most G3 economies.
    Keywords: Income and wealth inequality, Saving, Household portfolios, Historical micro data
    Date: 2022–04–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03881419&r=his
  9. By: Ganzer, Andreas (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Schmucker, Alexandra (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Stegmaier, Jens (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Wolter, Stefanie (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)
    Abstract: "The Establishment History Panel (BHP) is composed of cross sectional datasets since 1975 for West Germany and 1992 for East Germany. Every cross section contains all the establishments in Germany which are covered by the IAB Employment History (BeH) on June 30th. These are all establishments with at least one employee liable to social security on the reference date. Establishments with no employee liable to social security but with at least one marginal part-time employee are included since 1999. The cross sections can be combined to form a panel. This data report describes the Establishment-History-Panel (BHP) 1975–2021." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Datenaufbereitung ; Datenqualität ; Datenzugang ; IAB-Betriebs-Historik-Panel ; Datenanonymisierung ; Datensatzbeschreibung ; Imputationsverfahren ; Stichprobe ; 1975-2021
    Date: 2022–12–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfda:202212(en)&r=his
  10. By: Gilles Campagnolo (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Sandye Gloria (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Heinz Kurz (Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz); Richard Sturn (Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz)
    Abstract: From different perspectives regarding the History of Economic Thought, the contributions to this roundtable highlight different aspects and levels of the modernity of the founder of the Austrian School of Economics, and of his importance for the development of social theory and the discipline of scientific economics. This is complemented by discussions of ambiguities and multiple meanings of modernity.
    Keywords: Austrian economics, Carl Menger, modern economics, modernity, enlightenment, complexity economics, subjectivism, value theory
    Date: 2022–08–22
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03895951&r=his
  11. By: Cédric Chambru (UZH - Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich); Emeric Henry (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Benjamin Marx (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR)
    Abstract: How do radical reforms of the state shape economic development over time? In 1790, France's first Constituent Assembly overhauled the kingdom's organization to set up new administrative entities and local capitals. In a subset of departments, new capitals were chosen quasi-randomly as the Assembly abandoned its initial plan to rotate administrative functions across multiple cities. We study how exogenous changes in local administrative presence affect the state's coercive and productive capacity, as well as economic development in the ensuing decades. In the short run, proximity to the state increases taxation, conscription, and investments in law enforcement capacity. In the long run, the new local capitals and their periphery obtain more public goods and experience faster economic development. One hundred years after the reform, capitals are 40% more populated than comparable cities in 1790. Our results shed new light on the intertemporal and redistributive impacts of state-building in the context of one of the most ambitious administrative reforms ever implemented.
    Keywords: State Capacity, State-Building, Administrative Reform, Economic Development
    Date: 2022–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03812820&r=his
  12. By: Sergei Guriev (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Elias Papaioannou (London Business School)
    Abstract: We synthesize the literature on the recent rise of populism. First, we discuss definitions and present descriptive evidence on the recent increase in support for populists. Second, we cover the historical evolution of populist regimes since the late nineteenth century. Third, we discuss the role of secular economic factors related to cross-border trade and automation. Fourth, we review studies on the role of the 2008–09 global financial crisis and subsequent austerity, connect them to historical work covering the Great Depression, and discuss likely mechanisms. Fifth, we discuss studies on identity politics, trust, and cultural backlash. Sixth, we discuss economic and cultural consequences of growth in immigration and the recent refugee crisis. We also discuss the gap between perceptions and reality regarding immigration. Seventh, we review studies on the impact of the internet and social media. Eighth, we discuss the literature on the implications of populism's recent rise. We conclude outlining avenues for further research.
    Date: 2022–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03874305&r=his
  13. By: François Facchini (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Date: 2021–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-03848914&r=his
  14. By: Aurélien Goutsmedt (ISPOLE - Institut de Sciences Politiques Louvain Europe - Institut de Sciences Politiques Louvain Europe)
    Abstract: Abstract This article relates the history of economists' influence in shaping the content of the Humphrey-Hawkins Act (1978) and its immediate consequences. The act committed the federal government to reducing unemployment to 4 percent and inflation to 3 percent as soon as 1983. Initially, the Humphrey-Hawkins bill was conceived as a project to favor the economic integration of African Americans and economic planning and targeted only the unemployment rate. Republican senators successfully pushed for adding a numerical inflation target during the debates in Congress. The act eventually put on equal footing inflation and unemployment. This article argues that the economists in the Carter administration, and notably the Council of Economic Advisers, were instrumental, even if unintentionally, in favoring the integration of an inflation target and such an interpretation of the bill. In the negotiations that opposed them to the supporters of the bill, as well as in the analysis of the bill they produced, they insisted on the existence of a trade-off between inflation and unemployment and referred frequently to the famous Phillips curve. They endeavored to anchor their expertise on academic publications, which strengthened the role of the Phillips curve in shaping the debates. Business organizations and senators used references to the trade-off to undermine the bill and favor the integration of an inflation target.
    Date: 2022–08–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03878346&r=his
  15. By: Jaime Bonet-Morón; María Aguilera-Díaz
    Abstract: Este trabajo contribuye con la reconstrucción de las cifras demográficas y económicas del departamento de Córdoba para un periodo largo de tiempo, que permite en gran medida cubrir los setenta años de existencia de vida de este territorio. Se encuentra que la población tuvo un crecimiento superior al de Colombiay experimentóuna transición demográfica con una reducción de la tasa de natalidad y mortalidad, pero a un menor ritmo del observado en el agregado nacional. El crecimiento económico cordobés se caracteriza por una volatilidad mayor que la nacionaly el desempeño de los distintos sectores fuemenor al promedio nacional a lo largo del periodo analizadoy la brecha del PIB per cápita de Córdoba frente al promedio nacional se amplió, mostrando un estancamiento relativo de la economía de Córdoba sin cambios importantes que indiquen una mejora relativa. **** ABSTRACT: This work contributes to the reconstruction of the demographic and economic data of the department of Córdoba for a long period of time, which allows to a great extent to cover the seventy years of existence of this territory. We foundthat the population growth of Córdoba washigher than that of Colombia.The departmentalsoexperienced a demographic transition with a reduction in the birth and mortality rates, but at a lower rate than that observed in the national aggregate. Cordoba's economic growth is characterized by greater volatility than that of the national one and theperformance of the different sectors was lower than the national average throughout the period analyzed, and the gap betweenthe GDP per capita of Córdoba andthe national average widened showing a relative stagnation of the economy of Córdoba without important changes that indicate a relative improvement.
    Keywords: Departamento de Córdoba, Caribe colombiano, demografía y sectoreseconómicos, Department of Córdoba, Colombian Caribbean, demography, and economic sectors.
    JEL: N96 Q11 R11 R12
    Date: 2022–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:cheedt:57&r=his
  16. By: Federico Etro
    Abstract: We study art markets in the Greco-Roman world to explore the origins of artistic innovations in classical Greece and mass production of imitative works in the Roman Empire. Economic factors may have played a role, on one side fostering product innovations when few rival Greek city-states competed outbidding each other to obtain higher quality artworks, and on the other side fostering process innovations when a large integrated market promoted art trade across the Mediterranean Sea. The evidence on art prices is consistent with this. Literary evidence on classical Greek painting from V-III centuries BC (largely from Pliny the Elder) shows that the real price of masterpieces increased up to the peak of creativity reached with Apelles. Epigraphic evidence on Roman sculpture from I-III centuries AD (largely from inscriptions on the bases of statues) shows that the real price of statues was stable and largely equalized across the imperial provinces.
    Keywords: Art markets, Ancient economy, Greco-Roman world
    JEL: Z11
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2022_27.rdf&r=his
  17. By: Gilles Campagnolo (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Carl Menger is remembered less for his analysis of entrepreneurship (which in the following analysis refers to his fundamental notions related to the nature of business practice) than for his views on matters like money, individualism or the nature of institutions (there are exceptions to this subdued interest, such as Kirzner 1978). However, these issues are related and a long-debated notion among Austrians, namely time, relates investment, entrepreneurship, uncertainty and Menger's tentative quasi-anthropology (kept in his notes). This paper conscientiously investigates those issues through Menger's views on the notion of time.
    Keywords: Böhm-Bawerk (Eugen von), entrepreneurship, innovation, Menger (Carl), time
    Date: 2022–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03779379&r=his
  18. By: Guinnane, T. W.
    Abstract: Economists have reported results based on populations for every country in the world for the past two thousand years. The source, McEvedy and Jones’ Atlas of World Population History, includes many estimates that are little more than guesses and that do not reflect research since 1978. McEvedy and Jones often infer population sizes from their view of a particular economy, making their estimates poor proxies for economic growth. Their rounding means their measurement error is not “classical.†Some economists augment that error by disaggregating regions in unfounded ways. Econometric results that rest on McEvedy and Jones are unreliable.
    Date: 2022–12–15
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camjip:2233&r=his
  19. By: Stephen J Terry (BU - Boston University [Boston], NBER - National Bureau of Economic Research [New York] - NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research); Thomas Chaney (USC - University of Southern California, ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Konrad B Burchardi (Stockholm University); Lisa Tarquinio (UWO - University of Western Ontario); Tarek A Hassan (BU - Boston University [Boston], NBER - National Bureau of Economic Research [New York] - NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR)
    Abstract: We show a causal impact of immigration on innovation and growth in US counties. To identify the causal impact of immigration, we use 130 years of detailed data on migrations from foreign countries to US counties to isolate quasi-random variation in the ancestry composition of US counties; interacting this plausibly exogenous variation in ancestry composition with the recent inflows of migrants from different origins, we predict the total number of migrants flowing into each US county in recent decades. We show immigration has a positive causal impact on innovation, measured as patenting of local firms, and on economic growth, measured as real income growth for native workers. We interpret those results through the lens of a quantitative model of endogenous growth and migrations. A structural estimation of this model targeting the well identified causal impact of migration on innovation suggests the large inflow of foreign migrants into the US since 1965 may have contributed to an additional 8% growth in innovation and 5% growth in wages.
    Keywords: Migrations, Innovation, Patents, Endogenous growth, Dynamism
    Date: 2022–11–24
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03869993&r=his
  20. By: Eduardo V Trumper (Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Manfredi, Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA), Manfredi X5988, Argentina, INTA - Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria); Arianne J Cease (School of Sustainability - ASU - Arizona State University [Tempe], ASU - Arizona State University [Tempe]); María Marta Cigliano (División Entomología, Museo de La Plata, FCNyM-UNLP, La Plata 1900, Argentina;, Museo de La Plata - CONICET - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas [Buenos Aires]); Fernando Copa Bazán (Instituto de Investigaciones Agrícolas El Vallecito, Universidad Autónoma Gabriel René Moreno, Km 7 1/2 Carretera al Norte, Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Santa Cruz, Bolivia, Universidad Autonoma Gabriel René Moreno); Carlos E Lange (Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectores, UNLP-CONICET-CICPBA, La Plata 1900, Argentina, CONICET - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas [Buenos Aires]); Héctor E Medina (Servicio Nacional de Sanidad y Calidad Agroalimentaria (SENASA), Av. Paseo Colón 367, Buenos Aires C1063ACD, Argentina); Rick P Overson (School of Sustainability - ASU - Arizona State University [Tempe], ASU - Arizona State University [Tempe]); Clara Therville (School of Sustainability - ASU - Arizona State University [Tempe], ASU - Arizona State University [Tempe]); Martina E Pocco (División Entomología, Museo de La Plata, FCNyM-UNLP, La Plata 1900, Argentina, Museo de La Plata - CONICET - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas [Buenos Aires]); Cyril Piou (UMR CBGP - Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD [France-Sud] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier, Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Gustavo Zagaglia (SENASA - Servicio Nacional de Sanidad y Calidad Agroalimentaria); David Hunter (Locust and Grasshopper Control)
    Abstract: In the first half of the twentieth century, the South American Locust (SAL), Schistocerca cancellata (Serville, 1838), was a major pest of agriculture in Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Brazil. From 1954-2014, a preventive management program appeared to limit SAL populations, with only small-to moderate-scale treatments required, limited to outbreak areas in northwest Argentina. However, the lack of major locust outbreaks led to a gradual reduction in resources, and in 2015, the sudden appearance of swarms marked the beginning of a substantial upsurge, with many swarms reported initially in Argentina in 2015, followed by expansion into neighboring countries over the next few years. The upsurge required a rapid allocation of resources for management of SAL and a detailed examination of the improvements needed for the successful management of this species. This paper provides a review of SAL biology, management history, and perspectives on navigating a plague period after a 60-year recession.
    Keywords: South america, locust plagues, population dynamics, management
    Date: 2022–01–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03880605&r=his
  21. By: Nada Ali (School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London)
    Abstract: Despite Sudan’s legacy of abrupt but successful popular uprisings, the country has failed to date to chart a path towards sustainable democracy. This paper seeks, through a review of Sudan’s contemporary political history, to understand the failures of successive democratic governments to pursue an effective program of nation building, ensure peace and move the country out of this dysfunctional cycle of long autocratic military rule, interrupted by popular uprisings and failed democratic transitions. Theoretical literature in this area is neither uniform nor discipline-specific. This paper uses insights from political science, sociology and economics to reach conclusions. Apart from economist who tended to focus on structural factors hindering political transitions (e.g. conflict and the relevance of oil rents) enough commentators agree that the kernel of the problem is the political elite, their decision making and behavior vis-à-vis pivotal national questions (See Khalid, 1990, De Waal 2015). We understand the relevant questions as including the conceptualization of national identity post-independence, the development of a coherent and effective citizenship construct, defining the relationship of the center to the periphery – in terms both of rights and obligations, understanding the regional and international forces affecting the internal politics in Sudan, Sudan’s position in the modern World and issues of justice and accountability for past wrongs. This approach subordinates the “economic” to the “political” in the sense that it treats the issue as a political problem which then generates economic effects such as economic stagnation, development impasse and clientelism and cronyism. We are also aware of the particular challenges facing Sudan by way of inheritance from the previous regime (See Elbattahani (2017)). These include a disintegrated state, ongoing conflicts, fragile state institutions and an ongoing economic crisis. However, if we are to learn anything from the brief periods of failed democratic rule in the 60s and 80s it ought to be that short-term solutions to long-term problems seldom work
    Date: 2022–05–20
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1551&r=his
  22. By: Daniel Aaronson; Daniel Hartley; Bhashkar Mazumder; Martha Stinson
    Abstract: We estimate the long-run effects of the 1930s Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) redlining maps by linking children in the full count 1940 Census to 1) the universe of IRS tax data in 1974 and 1979 and 2) the long form 2000 Census. We use two identification strategies to estimate the potential long-run effects of differential access to credit along HOLC boundaries. The first strategy compares cross-boundary differences along HOLC boundaries to a comparison group of boundaries that had statistically similar pre-existing differences as the actual boundaries. A second approach only uses boundaries that were least likely to have been chosen by the HOLC based on our statistical model. We find that children living on the lower-graded side of HOLC boundaries had significantly lower levels of educational attainment, reduced income in adulthood, and lived in neighborhoods during adulthood characterized by lower educational attainment, higher poverty rates, and higher rates of single-headed households.
    Date: 2022–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:22-56&r=his
  23. By: Bjørnskov, Christian (Aarhus University)
    Abstract: This paper explores whether coups cause increased crisis risk, and if some types of coups are associated with stronger risk. I use a worldwide sample with data on more than 1200 onsets of economic crises between 1950 and 2019, treat separate effects of military and civilian coup attempts, and distinguish between failed and successful coups. The data reveal that economic crises are primarily induced by successful coups, and by coups that result in regime change towards civilian autocracy from both democracy and military dictatorship.
    Keywords: Democracy; Autocracy; Regime Types; Crisis
    JEL: O11 O43 P16
    Date: 2022–12–19
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1449&r=his
  24. By: Chen, Daniel L.; Ash, Elliott; Naidu, Suresh
    Abstract: This paper provides a quantitative analysis of the eects of the early law and economics movement on the U.S. judiciary. Using the universe of published opinions in U.S. Circuit Courts and 1 million District Court criminal sentencing decisions linked to judge identity, we estimate the eect of attendance in the con- troversial Manne economics training program, an intensive course attended by almost half of federal judges between 1976 and 1999. After attending economics training, participating judges use more economics language, render more conser- vative verdicts in economics cases, rule against regulatory/taxation agencies more often, and impose longer criminal sentences. These results are robust to adjusting for a wide variety of covariates that predict the timing of attendance. Non-Manne judges randomly exposed to Manne peers on previous cases increase their use of economics language in subsequent opinions, suggesting economics ideas diused throughout the judiciary.
    JEL: D7 K0 Z1
    Date: 2022–12–13
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:127594&r=his
  25. By: Adventino Banjwa
    Abstract: Uganda's post-colony continues to be haunted by the colonial logic of ethnicity. This logic has mapped the country's post-colonial political landscape as a terrain on which spirals of ethnic-based conflicts and violence are the norm. Because colonial ethnic spatial demarcations were also unequally governed, the question of ethnic inequality was necessarily implanted into the post-colonial political landscape. Many came to define Uganda's post-colonial politics as one of 'ethnic balancing'.
    Keywords: Ethnic inequality, Decentralization, Colonialism, Uganda
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2022-167&r=his
  26. By: Afunts, Geghetsik (CERGE-EI); Jurajda, Štepán (CERGE-EI)
    Abstract: There is evidence that the introduction of unilateral divorce legislation (UDL) starting in the late 1960s increased US divorce rates. We ask whether making divorce easier affected the educational structure of marriage. Based on marriage and divorce certificate data covering 1970-1988, we provide new evidence on the evolution of the educational structure of marriage inflows (newlyweds) and outflows (divorces), and estimate UDL difference-in-differences effects on both flows. While UDL did not contribute to rising homogamy (the tendency towards married partners having the same level of education), it did affect the educational structure of marriage: it made generally unstable hypogamous couples (women marrying less educated partners) less likely to divorce, and it made homogamous couples more stable than hypergamous ones (women marrying more educated partners).
    Keywords: homogamy, unilateral divorce, marriage
    JEL: J12
    Date: 2022–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15749&r=his
  27. By: Leonid Peisakhin; Didac Queralt
    Abstract: A burgeoning literature on repression against civilians argues that exposure to violence changes victims' identities by strengthening attachment to the in-group and creates downstream effects for political and social behaviour that persist across generations. In this paper, we ask whether selective repression against community elites, who are crucial in the processes of value formation and transmission, might create similar lasting effects.
    Keywords: Elites, Repression, Voting behaviour, Conflict, Germany
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2022-157&r=his
  28. By: Vincenzo Atella (CEIS & DEF, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Edoardo Di Porto (Federico II University of Napoli); Joanna Kopinska (Sapienza University of Rome); Maarten Lindeboom (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
    Abstract: This paper examines the causal effect of a traumatic event experienced by pregnant women on the life-long labor market outcomes of their offspring. We exploit a unique natural experiment that involved randomly placed Nazi raids in municipalities in Italy during WWII. We link administrative data on male private sector workers to information about Nazi raids and war casualties. Our results suggest that prenatal exposure to traumatic events affect offspring earnings throughout the working career and in retirement. The lower earnings are due to lower educational attainment, the type of jobs held and interruptions in working careers due to unemployment. We further find that prenatal exposure exacerbates the adverse effects of later life job loss on earnings. We use a medical database on health expenditures to interpret the effect estimates. The prenatally exposed have higher medical expenditures on diseases of the nervous system and mental disorders, indicating that stress is likely to be an important factor driving our findings.
    Keywords: WWII; Violent raids; Prenatal exposure; Offspring; Life-cycle earnings; Mass layoff
    JEL: J24 I15
    Date: 2022–12–19
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:549&r=his
  29. By: Gilles Campagnolo (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: How did Carl Menger read Aristotle? This debate is 'old hat' within Mengerian scholarship. Delving through the archives, new elements have been added by Emil Kauder and, more recently, by myself. Some issues raised by Ricardo Crespo are clarified in the following response. In an essay published in 2003, Crespo defended the idea that Menger is not an 'orthodox Aristotelian'. I retorted in a paper coauthored with Aurélien Lordon in 2011. Crespo resumed the exchange, summarized and modified his argument (Crespo 2022). This rejoinder aims at setting the record straight.
    Keywords: Aristotle Aristotelianism Austrian school of economics Menger (Carl) Methodenstreit (dispute over methods) methodology of economics, Aristotle, Aristotelianism, Austrian school of economics, Menger (Carl), Methodenstreit (dispute over methods), methodology of economics
    Date: 2022–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03896083&r=his
  30. By: Francisco Amaral (University of Bonn); Martin Dohmen (University of Bonn); Sebastian Kohl (Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies - Max-Planck-Gesellschaft); Moritz Schularick (University of Bonn, ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
    Abstract: We study long-term returns on residential real estate in twenty-seven "superstar" cities in fifteen countries over 150 years. We find that total returns in superstar cities are close to 100 basis points lower per year than in the rest of the country. House prices tend to grow faster in the superstars, but rent returns are substantially greater outside the big agglomerations, resulting in higher long-run total returns. The excess returns outside the superstars can be rationalized as a compensation for risk, especially for higher covariance with income growth and lower liquidity. Superstar real estate is comparatively safe.
    Keywords: Housing returns, Housing risk, Superstar cities, Regional housing markets
    Date: 2021–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03881493&r=his
  31. By: Shay Tsur (Bank of Israel)
    Abstract: Some Holocaust survivors in Israel began receiving compensation in the 1950s, while others became eligible only from the 1990s. I find that children born to parents who receive the compensation from the 1950s have more years of schooling compared to children that were already adults in the 1990s when their parents began receiving compensation. The findings are more prominent among girls, with an average effect of 0.07-0.42 year of schooling, depending on household compensation, which equals 10-60 percent of the average salary.
    Keywords: Household, Human Capital, Children, Holocaust
    Date: 2022–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boi:wpaper:2022.05&r=his

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