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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2023‒01‒02
34 papers chosen by |
| By: | Stephen Broadberry |
| Abstract: | British per capita GDP grew at an average annual rate of 0.13 per cent between 1086 and 1700. Although the annual growth rate increased to 0.48 per cent between 1700 and 1870, the period covering the Industrial Revolution, this was still not particularly fast. What mattered for Britain’s catching-up and forging ahead of other economies was its resilience, with few episodes of negative growth. By the late nineteenth century, other countries had begun to emulate Britain’s Industrial Revolution and by the beginning of the twentieth century, the United States had emerged as the new per capita income leader. However, the process by which the United States and Germany overtook Britain owed more to a later structural shift out of agriculture and developments within services than to any change in the comparative productivity position within manufacturing. After 1870, other countries were bound to grow faster than Britain while catching-up, and once Britain had fallen behind, it too could benefit from borrowing technology and institutions from abroad. TFP growth has been an important proximate source of Britain’s rise to GDP per capita leadership and also of Britain’s relative economic decline since 1870. However, the ultimate source of these developments in technology lies in the institutional framework. Britain’s rise to GDP per capita leadership occurred as innovators responded to the factor price combination that they faced within an environment shaped by the Enlightenment. After 1870, British relative decline occurred as barriers to competition arose and slowed the response to technological change. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_203&r=his |
| By: | Sheilagh Ogilvie |
| Abstract: | Economics and history are often regarded as antithetical. This paper argues the opposite. It builds its case by showing how economics and history provide complementary approaches to analyzing a fundamental historical institution: serfdom. The paper scrutinizes three questions: how serfdom shaped peasant choices, how it constrained those choices, and how it affected entire societies. By working together, economics and history have generated better answers to these questions than either discipline could have achieved in isolation. Economic and historical approaches, the paper concludes, are not substitutes but complements. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_200&r=his |
| By: | Nikolai Fedor (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Oleinokov Andrey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Despite the fact that historians almost always recognized that time is important for historiography or simply identified time with history (like Jules Michelet, who said that history is time, or Marc Bloch, who called history the science of people in time), only recently the necessary prerequisites were formed for historical time (its nature, structure, models of periodization and ways of experiencing) to become the direct subject of modern theory of history. This new state of affairs in the field of theory is today more and more often referred to as the temporal turn. |
| Keywords: | temporal turn |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:s21035&r=his |
| By: | Benjamin Schneider |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that the quality of employment—whether workers are employed in ‘good jobs’—is an important aspect of wellbeing, and constructs an index to measure historical occupational quality. The paper begins by explaining why work quality should be included as a measure of living standards. It describes the literature on present-day job quality, the ‘work gap’ in our knowledge of historical wellbeing, and uses historical workers’ perspectives about the aspects of jobs they valued to derive components of job quality in the past. It then suggests sources that provide information about the components, outlines how to measure the components and combine them in a Historical Occupational Quality Index (HOQI), and sets out the analytical narrative approach to describe work-related wellbeing that underpins quantification. The HOQI enables comparisons of job quality across time and space using many types of historical evidence. The second half of the paper applies the index to the mechanization of spinning in Britain during the late 18th and early 19th century. The paper combines data on hand spinning wages from Humphries & Schneider (2020) with a new dataset of more than 5000 observations of wages and working time in the early factory system and extensive qualitative evidence. Most spinning jobs changed from low-pay, high-control, low-risk work to higher-paid but low-control and more dangerous occupations. The best factory jobs, with high pay, control, and lower occupational risks, were claimed by men, which produced male-biased technological change. The case study illustrates how job quality measurement enables systematic analysis of non-wage dimensions of wellbeing. It also shows that these components of good work became more unequal during the First Industrial Revolution. The paper concludes by suggesting further possible applications of the HOQI. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_202&r=his |
| By: | Agadzhanyan Alexadr (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Razdyakonov Vladislav (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The subject of the research is religious social projection in pre-revolutionary Russia. |
| Keywords: | HISTORY OF RELIGION, SOCIAL HISTORY, SOCIAL DESIGN, Utopia, Spiritualism, Tolstoyism, COMMUNES, SOCIAL PROJECT, SOCIAL THEORY, IMAGINATION |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:s21033&r=his |
| By: | Adam, Ammaarah; Ades, Raphael; Banks, William; Benning, Canbeck; Grant, Gwyneth; Forster-Brass, Harry; McGiveron, Owen; Miller, Joe; Phelan, Daniel; Randazzo, Sebastian; Reilly, Matthew; Scott, Michael; Serban, Sebastian; Stockton, Carys; Wallis, Patrick |
| Abstract: | How was trust created and reinforced between the inhabitants of medieval and early modern cities? And how did the social foundations of trusting relationships change over time? Current research highlights the role of kinship, neighbourhood and associations, particularly guilds, in creating ‘relationships of trust’ and social capital in the face of high levels of migration, mortality and economic volatility, but tells us little about their relative importance or how they developed. We uncover a profound shift in the contribution of family and guilds to trust networks among the middling and elite of one of Europe’s major cities, London, over three centuries, from the 1330s to the 1680s. We examine the networks of sureties created to secure the inheritances of children whose fathers died while they were minors, surviving in the records of London’s Orphans Court. Our analysis of almost fifteen thousand networks evaluates the presence of trusting relationships connected with guild membership, family and place over several centuries. We show a profound increase in the role of kinship – a re-embedding of trust within the family - and a decline of the importance of shared guild membership in connecting Londoner’s who secured orphans’ inheritances together. We suggest these developments are best explained as a result of the impact of the Reformation on the form and intensity of sociability fostered by guilds and the enormous growth of the metropolis. |
| Keywords: | orphans; networks; trust; credit; London; guilds; kinship; reformation; early-modern |
| JEL: | N20 N13 N33 N93 Z13 |
| Date: | 2022–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:117445&r=his |
| By: | Carnevali, Emilio; Pedersen Ystehede, André |
| Abstract: | Alberto Chilosi belongs to the last generation of scholars who studied the socialist system and have been able to gain first-hand experience of its operation under “real socialism”. His extraordinary testimony features a series of analyses, thoughts, and anecdotes on the workings of this system that have often been overlooked in the literature of comparative economics and in the history of economic thought, but which will undoubtedly represent an indispensable source for historians of the future. This text also offers thought-provoking materials for those who set out to think about a model of society that goes beyond the capitalist economy. |
| Keywords: | Economic Planning, Comparative Economic Systems, Social Values |
| JEL: | A13 P21 P51 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:115461&r=his |
| By: | Popov, Vladimir |
| Abstract: | After the Second World War British industry was oriented towards the markets of former colonies, where the standards of efficiency and quality were not that high, so it was gradually loosing competitiveness as compared to its European counterparts. Britain was falling behind continental Europe in productivity and personal income until it entered the EU in 1973: the UK did not start growing faster than continental Europe, but at least stopped falling behind. EU membership definitely benefited Britain mostly because it gained free access to the burgeoning markets of continental Europe. However, only a minority of the population benefited from the acceleration of economic growth: since the early 1980s income and wealth inequalities increased greatly. A large group of less well-off UK voters did not really have a chance to benefit from gains of British EU membership because these gains accrued mostly to the richest. The British elite, however, blamed the relative deterioration of the disadvantaged part of the population not on its own policies (failing to curb the rise of inequalities), but on globalization, foreign competition and the EU. The goal was to get the better deal from Brussels (even better than the special conditions granted to the country when it entered the EU in 1973). But the side effect was the rise of nationalism and anti EU mood among the disadvantaged groups, especially in less competitive and depression prone parts of the country. At the end of the day, it turned out that the British elite outsmarted itself: it was trying to play the “brexit card” for getting minor concessions from the EU, but instead lost the free access to the European market altogether. |
| Keywords: | BREXIT, EU, Inequalities, Competitiveness, Productivity growth, Political elite |
| JEL: | D31 D63 F50 F63 O15 O52 |
| Date: | 2022–11–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:115465&r=his |
| By: | Kung, James Kai-sing; Özak, Ömer (Southern Methodist University); Putterman, Louis; Shi, Shuang |
| Abstract: | We propose and test empirically a theory describing the endogenous formation and persistence of mega-states, using China as an example. We suggest that the relative timing of the emergence of agricultural societies, and their distance from each other, set off a race between their autochthonous state-building projects, which determines their extent and persistence. Using a novel dataset describing the historical presence of Chinese states, prehistoric development, the diffusion of agriculture, and migratory distance across 1-degree x 1-degree grid cells in eastern Asia, we find that cells that adopted agriculture earlier and were close to Erlitou -- the earliest political center in eastern Asia -- remained under Chinese control for longer and continue to be a part of China today. By contrast, cells that adopted agriculture early and were located further from Erlitou developed into independent states, as agriculture provided the fertile ground for state-formation, while isolation provided time for them to develop and confront the expanding Chinese empire. Our study sheds important light on why eastern Asia kept reproducing a mega-state in the area that became China and on the determinants of its borders with other states. |
| Date: | 2022–06–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:dbkfh&r=his |
| By: | Popov, Vladimir |
| Abstract: | Even before the war in Ukraine of 2022 and even before the ‘Russian-hackers-undermine-US-democracy’ campaign of 2016, Russian-American relations had degraded to a level not seen since the 1950s. Why? Today the US has fewer ideological disagreements with Russia than it had with the USSR during the Cold War. Nowadays Russia is a capitalist market economy and a more democratic country than the USSR. Also, Russia is much weaker than the USSR – the size of its population and territory, and economic and military potential are about 60 to 80 percent of that of the Soviet Union. Its influence simply cannot be compared to the global impact of the USSR. But today the rhetoric and the actions of the US towards Russia are much harsher than they were in the 1970s, in the era of détente. The case in point is 1968 Czechoslovakia crisis, when the USSR together with its Warsaw pact allies moved the troops into the heart of Europe, de facto replacing the old leadership of the country with a new pro-Soviet regime. Not only the West refrained from imposing sanction, it started the détente only 3 years later. But sanctions were imposed in 1980, right after the Soviet Union moved the troops into Afghanistan in 1979, and in 2014 after Crimea became part of Russia. Why the difference? It is argued that the US and Western policy towards USSR/Russia is driven by perceptions of the political class about the prospects of the strengthening/weakening of the regime. In the 1960s it was perceived that the role of the USSR will continue to rise in the world economy and international politics, so there was a need to find modus vivendi and rules of co-existence, which eventually resulted in détente. In the 1980s, however, and especially in the 2010s it was perceived that the USSR/Russia is not catching up with the West economically and is likely to be on the decline, not on the rise. |
| Keywords: | Russia, US, geopolitics, détente, Cold War, sanctions, catch up growth, economic competition |
| JEL: | F50 F51 F52 N4 |
| Date: | 2022–11–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:115447&r=his |
| By: | Edward Kerby; Alexander Moradi; Hanjo Odendaal |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study 500 years of African economic history using traveller accounts. We systematically collected 2,464 unique documents, of which 855 pass language and rigorous data quality requirements. Our final corpus of texts contains more than 230,000 pages. Analysing such a corpus is an insurmountable task for traditional historians and would probably take a lifetime’s work. Applying modern day computational linguistic techniques such as a structural topic model approach (STM) in combination with domain knowledge of African economic history, we analyse how first hand accounts (topics) evolve across space, time and traveller occupations. Apart from obvious accounts of climate, geography and zoology, we find topics around imperialism, diplomacy, conflict, trade/commerce, health/medicine, evangelization and many more topics of interest to scholarship. We find that some topics follow notable epochs defined by underlying relevance and that travellers’ occupational backgrounds influence the narratives in their writing. Many topics exhibit good temporal and spatial coverage, and a large variation in occupational backgrounds adding different perspectives to a topic. This makes the large body of written accounts a promising source to systemically shed new light on some of Africa’s precolonial past. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_201&r=his |
| By: | Vincent Geloso; Chandler S. Reilly |
| Abstract: | The year 1960 is often presented as a break year in the economic history of Quebec and Canada. It is used to mark the beginning of the “Quiet Revolution” during which Canada’s French-speaking province of Quebec under rapid socio-economic change in the form of rapid economic convergence with the rest of Canada and the emergence of a more expansive state. Using synthetic control methods, we analyze whether 1960 is associated with a departure from previous developments. With regards to GDP per capita, GDP per worker, household-size adjusted income, life expectancy at birth, and enrollment rates in primary and secondary schools, we find that 1960 was not an important date. For most of these measures, the counterfactual scenario is slightly better than the actual data but not by significant margins. Only with respect to the size of government do we find sign of a break. L'année 1960 est présentée comme une année charnière dans l'histoire économique du Québec. Cette année marque le début de la révolution tranquille et du rattrapage économique du Québec suite à la création d'un État plus interventionniste. En faisant usage de la méthode des contrôles synthétiques, nous évaluons si cette année marque véritablement un point de départ. Nous trouvons que le rattrapage économique et scolaire du Québec n'a pas accéléré en 1960. Nous trouvons un effet positif mais modeste au titre de l'espérance de vie à la naissance. Nous trouvons aussi un effet positif important au titre de la taille de l'État. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth,human capital,health outcomes,economic history,Quebec,Quiet Revolution, Croissance économique,capital humain,santé,histoire économique,Québec,Révolution tranquille |
| JEL: | N31 H41 D72 L51 |
| Date: | 2022–12–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2022s-30&r=his |
| By: | Carlos Eduardo Suprinyak (AUP - The American University of Paris - The American University of Paris); André Roncaglia de Carvalho (Unifesp - Federal University of Sao Paulo) |
| Abstract: | In January 1963, distinguished economists from all over the world descended on Rio de Janeiro to discuss the phenomenon of chronic inflation and how it interfered with the developmental prospects of Latin America. A non-exhaustive list of participants included such notable figures as Hollis Chenery, Gottfried Haberler, Arnold Harberger, Roy Harrod, Albert Hirschman, Nicholas Kaldor, W. Arthur Lewis, and Dudley Seers, who shared conference halls for an entire week with high-profile Latin American economists like Roberto Campos, Celso Furtado, Eugenio Gudin, Felipe Pazos, Aníbal Pinto, Mario Henrique Simonsen, Osvaldo Sunkel, and Victor Urquidi. The conference has since been regarded as an early peak in the decades-long controversy between monetarists and structuralists about the causes of inflation in Latin America. While local economists had been grappling with the problem of monetary stabilization for some time, the topic entered the agenda of the economics mainstream as the Cuban Revolution turned Latin America once again into a strategic security concern. The paper shows how the sense of urgency generated by Cold War geopolitical considerations attracted the interest of the economics profession at large to the phenomenon of chronic inflation in Latin America. At the same time, it imposed the standards embraced by the mainstream onto a debate that had so far developed according to regional concerns and priorities. The resulting tension would shape the evolution of monetary and macroeconomic analysis in Latin America for decades to come. |
| Keywords: | inflation,economic growth,structuralism,monetarism,Cold War |
| Date: | 2022–11–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03865703&r=his |
| By: | Natchov, Timur V.; Pyle, William |
| Abstract: | Decades of investment decisions by central planners left communist societies with structures of production ill-prepared for competitive markets. Their vulnerability to liberalization, however, varied across space. Similar to the effects identified in the "China shock" literature, we hypothesize that post-market-shock outcomes will reflect pre-marketshock structures of production. Tracking voting outcomes at the district level in Russia's presidential elections, we document asymmetric reactions to the liberalization of markets in 1992. Electoral support for the pro-market incumbent declined most in areas with structural inheritances that made them most vulnerable to reforms. This finding sheds new light on an old debate about the importance of "initial conditions" (as opposed to policies) to the trajectories of post-communist societies. |
| Keywords: | industrial structure,transition economy,voting,Russia |
| JEL: | N14 N44 P00 P23 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2022_012&r=his |
| By: | Aikman, David; Drehmann, Mathias; Juselius, Mikael; Xing, Xiaochuan |
| Abstract: | We find that deep contractions have highly persistent scarring effects, depressing the level of GDP at least a decade hence. Drawing on a panel of 24 advanced and emerging economies from 1970 to the present, we show that these effects are nonlinear and asymmetric: there is no such persistence following less severe contractions or large expansions. While scarring after financial crises is well known, it also occurred after the deep contractions of the 1970s and 1980s that followed energy price shocks and restrictive monetary policy to combat high inflation. These results are very robust and have important implications for policy making and macro modelling. |
| Keywords: | Hysteresis,nonlinearity,financial crises,monetary policy,oil shocks |
| JEL: | E32 E37 G01 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:122022&r=his |
| By: | Bengtsson, Erik (Department of Economic History, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | This Swedish-language investigation concerns the usefulness of the Swedish property tax, introduced in 1862, as a source for studying wealth inequality in the agrarian sector. A one percent sample of all taxpayers in rural areas, following the original taxation lists archived at the National Archives in Stockholm, has been made for four counties in three years: 1870, 1900, 1920. The counties are Malmöhus, a wealthy but polarized area in the south, Älvsborg, a farmer-dominated area in the west, Jönköping, a farmer-dominated area in the centre-south, and Västmanland, an industrialized area in central-northern Sweden. The data encompass 1,477 taxpayers in 1870, 2 499 taxpayers in 1900, and 3 219 taxpayers in 1920. In total, 7 195 taxpayers. The investigation shows that inequality was quite high in the agrarian sector in Sweden in this time. In 1870, the ten percent of taxpayers with the most real estate owned 82.2 percent of taxed real estate in Malmöhus, 53.2 percent in Älvsborg, and 49.7 percent in Västmanland. Inequality declined in Malmöhus and Älvsborg to 1900, when the top decile shares were 62.7 and 43.7 respectively, but rose in Västmanland. In Jönköping, where the sample is too small in 1870, the top decile share in 1900 was 44.0 percent. Inequality was relatively stable from 1900 to 1920: it grew in Älvsborg, but decreased in Västmanland, and was stable in Malmöhus and Jönköping. When all four counties are taken together, it reinforces the picture of especially high inequality in 1870: the top decile’s share measured on the level of all four counties fell from 74.4 percent in 1870 to 59-60 percent in 1900 and 1920. The Gini coefficient for rural wealth in the four counties is estimated as 81.1 in 1870, 70.7 in 1900 and 70.4 in 1920. A decomposition shows that within-county and between-county inequality are both important parts of inequality as a whole. In an appendix, six further counties are added for the year 1900, taking the sample size for this year to 8,053. The results, in terms of inequality, with ten counties are quite similar to those with four. The text discusses the source value of the tax data and how the findings should be interpreted – for example, only those who owned real estate were included, which means that those completely without real estate are not included in the present investigation. |
| Keywords: | inequality; rural history; wealth inequality; farmers; Sweden |
| JEL: | D63 N33 |
| Date: | 2022–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:luekhi:0242&r=his |
| By: | Galina A. Orlova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Kristina A. Tanis (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Marina N. Balakhonskaya (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Anastasiia A. Balykova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Alexander A. Berlov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Alina A. Zaripova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Maxim Yu. Lukin (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Responding to the reproaches addressed by Michel de Certeau a quarter of a century ago to historians, who use time as a taxonomic tool without reflecting on its social structure, we seek to make time visible through the analytical tools developed currently by sociologists and anthropologists of time. Setting the analytical optics, we are turning in a performative way towards temporality in the history of the Soviet 20th century, transferring the temporal turn from the declaration into presence. Continuing to experiment with looking at the Soviet reality through a temporality lens, we are gathering the subjects of our two-year research in the text. The number of co-authors, unusual for the humanities; the composition of paper; and the wide range of topics express and embody the letter and spirit of our project, where the Soviet social time is jointly studied from different perspectives. Compositionally, the article consists of six analytical short stories. In each of them, the results of one of our research cases, united under the umbrella of the Soviet temporality project, are interpreted with one of the core concepts or approaches introduced by the temporal turn. |
| Keywords: | (Soviet) temporality, theoretical framework, timeframe, (socialist) timescape, heterochrony, temporalization, phronesis of time, pedagogy of time, time-patterns, materialization of time, clock-timing, temporal turn. |
| JEL: | Z11 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:211/hum/2022&r=his |
| By: | Bertrand Garbinti (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jonathan Goupille-Lebret (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Thomas Piketty (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Abstract Measuring and understanding the evolution of wealth inequality is a key challenge for researchers, policy makers, and the general public. This paper breaks new ground on this topic by presenting a new method to estimate and study wealth inequality. This method combines fiscal data with household surveys and national accounts in order to provide annual wealth distribution series, with detailed breakdowns by percentiles, age, and assets. Using the case of France as an illustration, we show that the resulting series can be used to better analyze the evolution and the determinants of wealth-inequality dynamics over the 1970–2014 period. We show that the decline in wealth inequality ends in the early 1980s, marking the beginning of a rise in the top 1% wealth share, though with significant fluctuations due largely to asset price movements. Rising inequality in savings rates coupled with highly stratified rates of returns has led to rising wealth concentration in spite of the opposing effect of house price increases. We develop a simple simulation model highlighting how changes in the combination of unequal savings rates, rates of return, and labor earnings that occurred in the early 1980s generated large multiplicative effects that led to radically different steady-state levels of wealth inequality. Taking advantage of the joint distribution of income and wealth, we show that top wealth holders are almost exclusively top capital earners, and increasingly fewer are made up of top labor earners; it has become increasingly difficult in recent decades to access top wealth groups with one's labor income only. |
| Date: | 2021–02–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-03474044&r=his |
| By: | Hidekatsu Kamio (Hidekatsu Kamio: Deputy Director, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: hidekatsu.kamio@boj.or.jp)); Yasuko Morita (Yasuko Morita: Formerly Director and Senior Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | In the latter half of the 1960s, Japan's trade balance broke away from its traditional pattern of worsening during economic upturns. The decision to tighten monetary policy, implemented in September 1969, was made in the midst of a continuing balance of payments surplus, unlike previous tightenings aimed at improving the positions in the balance of payments. Previous studies have assessed that this tightening further increased the balance of payments surplus and led to the Nixon Shock. They have pointed out the delay in policy makers' recognition of the fundamental changes in balance of payments trends and the need to change the exchange rate. Focusing on the perspective of the Bank of Japan ( hereafter BOJ) before and after this monetary tightening, this paper examines how the BOJ came to recognize trends in the balance of payments and the policy challenges of being a "surplus country," based on contemporaneous sources. In mid-1969, Japan was "for the first time in her history, experiencing the problems of surplus countries." During this period, the policy of restraining the growth of foreign exchange reserves had begun. However, foreign countries demanded more aggressive removal of import restrictions and the liberalization of capital exports on the premise that surpluses would be established. Domestically, this was perceived as the pursuit of responsibility of a surplus country. The BOJ tightened monetary policy with this responsibility in mind. At that time, the core of the responsibility of surplus countries for Japan was " getting out of the restrictive system," especially import liberalization and capital export liberalization. In this sense, the BOJ's awareness of the policy response at this point was not necessarily out of step with international standards. |
| Keywords: | Balance of payment, Monetary policy, Responsibility of a surplus country |
| JEL: | F68 N45 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:22-e-16&r=his |
| By: | Reutin Mikhail (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | German-Austrian cultural studies at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries are characterized by a "new interest" in medieval preaching. If earlier it was studied by theology, literary criticism, linguistics and history as a document fixing the status quo, the existing state of affairs in a particular area - ethical norms, genre features, functioning features (pragmatics), grammatical forms and evidence of events - now preaching explored in its orientation to the future, as a genre within which promising models of behavior are developed. |
| Keywords: | medieval sermon |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:s21036&r=his |
| By: | Imas, J. Miguel; Garcia-Lorenzo, Lucia |
| Abstract: | This paper challenges the Eurocentric entrepreneurship narrative from postcolonial and pan-African feminist perspectives. Based on interview research conducted with 24 Zimbabwean women entrepreneurs, we narrate their microstorias in order to expose the legacy of entrepreneurial colonialism and patriarchy in Africa. The microstorias reveal the colonial past as well as the patriarchal norms that disenfranchise women entrepreneurs in Zimbabwe. Yet, they also reveal their struggle, resilience, resistance and their ongoing fight to construct their own identities as entrepreneurs. The paper contributes to enhance and advance further postcolonial, decolonial and critical voices in entrepreneurship and organization studies by challenging the prevailing western discourse of entrepreneurship from the introduction of necroentrepreneurism; giving support to intersectional postcolonial and Pan-African feminist perspectives that voice global South women entrepreneurship and, by decolonizing and decentring the theoretical debates on entrepreneurship and organization. |
| Keywords: | Africa; colonialism; decolonialism; entrepreneurship; hustler; microstorias; necroentrepreneurship; pan-African feminism; postcolonialism; Zimbabwe |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2022–11–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:117418&r=his |
| By: | Thomas Blanchet (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | I introduce a new way of decomposing the evolution of the wealth distribution using a simple continuous time stochastic model, which separates the effects of mobility, savings, labor income, rates of return, demography, inheritance, and assortative mating. Based on two results from stochastic calculus, I show that this decomposition is nonparametrically identified and can be estimated based solely on repeated cross-sections of the data. I estimate it in the United States since 1962 using historical data on income, wealth, and demography. I find that the main drivers of the rise of the top 1% wealth share since the 1980s have been, in decreasing level of importance, higher savings at the top, higher rates of return on wealth (essentially in the form of capital gains), and higher labor income inequality. I then use the model to study the effects of wealth taxation. I derive simple formulas for how the tax base reacts to the net-of-tax rate in the long run, which nest insights from several existing models, and can be calibrated using estimable elasticities. In the benchmark calibration, the revenue-maximizing wealth tax rate at the top is high (around 12%), but the revenue collected from the tax is much lower than in the static case. |
| Date: | 2022–11–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03865295&r=his |
| By: | Mukherjee, Anirban (University of Calcutta) |
| Abstract: | In the recent past, India has seen a rise of a strong state which made its presence felt through a series of difficult measures such as demonetization, abolition of Triple-Talaq practice and article 370 even though none of these are particularly welfare enhancing for the majority population of India. I reckon that these measures merely act as signalling devices; signalling the emergence of a new kind of statism, different from the old, Nehruvian statism. I further argue that the promise of such statism was instrumental in the recent political success of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) who won the consecutive parliamentary elections held in 2014 and 2019. In this paper, I show that historically, the state and the communities in India keep contesting over the legal framework critical for resource allocation. But the nature of their conflict got disrupted with a rise in economic inequality induced by liberalisation and that, in turn led to an increased demand for a strong state and BJP’s subsequent electoral success. |
| Date: | 2022–11–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9hdys&r=his |
| By: | de Oliveira Dias, Murillo; Pan, Juliana; Vieira, Patrícia; Pereira, Leonardo José Dias |
| Abstract: | In this work, we addressed the epistemology of Leadership styles and supporting theories, providing a new perspective on the emerging themes after careful analysis and revision. From examining 37 leadership supporting theories, and 120 leadership styles, themes relating to the nature of Leadership emerged from the analysis, such as "cognitive" or "behavioral;" "situational" or "transformational;" "eye-to-eye" or "remote," and from the literature review, such as "informal or formal," "small groups" or "organizations," and leaders. As a result, we believe it is possible to reduce somehow the confusion that has contaminated leadership research for more than a century, paving the way for future research by understanding complex concepts affecting Leadership over the centuries. |
| Date: | 2022–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:rvmg7&r=his |
| By: | Gabriel, Ricardo Duque (Bonn Graduate School of Economics and Department of Economics, University of Bonn); Klein, Mathias (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Pessoa, Sofia (Bonn Graduate School of Economics and Department of Economics, University of Bonn) |
| Abstract: | Using a novel regional database covering over 200 elections in several European countries, this paper provides new empirical evidence on the political consequences of fiscal consolidations.To identify exogenous reductions in regional public spending, we use a Bartik-type instrument that combines regional sensitivities to changes in national government expenditures with narrative national consolidation episodes. Fiscal consolidations lead to a significant increase in extreme parties’ vote share, lower voter turnout, and a rise in political fragmentation. We highlight the close relationship between detrimental economic developments and voters’ support for extreme parties by showing that austerity induces severe economic costs through lowering GDP, employment, private investment, and wages. Austerity-driven recessions amplify the political costs of economic downturns considerably by increasing distrust in the political environment. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal policy; Austerity; Voting behavior; Political economy |
| JEL: | D72 E62 H53 |
| Date: | 2022–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0418&r=his |
| By: | Shuo Chen; Debin Ma |
| Abstract: | We examine the long-term pattern of state formation and the mythical historical Chinese unity under one single political regime based on the compilation of a large geocoded annual data series of political regimes and incidences of warfare between 221 BC and 1911 AD. By classifying our data sets into two types of regimes - agrarian and nomadic – and three types of warfare– agrarian/nomadic, agrarian/agrarian and internal rebellions – and applying an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, we find that nomadic-agrarian warfare and internal rebellion strengthens unification but agrarian/agrarian warfare entrenches fragmentation. We complement our econometrics exercise with an in-depth historical narrative by demonstrating that while warfare is a proximate cause for Chinese state formation and unity, the ultimate cause lies in a tripartite synthesis of Chinese ideology, institution and environment. We further discuss the long-run implications of Chinese unity on economic performance in a global context. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_199&r=his |
| By: | Lucke, Bernd |
| Abstract: | After more than 20 years of European Monetary Union (EMU), surprisingly few scientific studies exist which study the growth effects of introducing a common currency in large parts of the European Union. I do so using a large panel (NUTS3 data) of regional data for the EU-15. Some 800 (treated) regions were subject to a policy intervention when their country joined the Euro, while some 200 control regions were not. In a synthetic control approach as explored e. g. by Abadie, Diamond and Hainmueller (ADH, 2010), I estimate the causal effects of EMU both with the standard ADH-methodology and with a novel approach which estimates counterfactuals from the control group in post-treatment time. The results from both approaches are very similar: EMU has benefited regions with export-oriented and highly competitive companies e. g. in Germany, while it has had sizable detrimental growth effects on most French and Mediterranean Eurozone regions. Over eighteen years, these losses in growth cumulate to losses in per-capita income of between 15% and 30% vis-à-vis the non-EMU counterfactual. |
| Keywords: | European Monetary Union, synthetic control methods |
| JEL: | C12 C13 C21 C23 E65 F33 N14 |
| Date: | 2022–11–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:115373&r=his |
| By: | Giuseppe Travaglini (Department of Economics, Society & Politics, Università di Urbino Carlo Bo) |
| Abstract: | Political Economy, as an autonomous discipline, has a relatively recent history. From its origins, it appears to be divided into two fields, the “classical†one based on the labor- value theory, and the “neoclassical†one at the center of which is the utility-value theory. Our aim in this paper is to identify some relevant philosopher strands in economic thought that can help to disentangle the reciprocal relationships between the different economic theories, and to understand their relations with philosophy, and particularly with Moral philosophy. This can make it easier to study political economy, its social and political implications, and the not always simple relationship of the economic theory with social disciplines. |
| Keywords: | political economy; moral philosophy; welfare economics; social justice |
| JEL: | B00 B10 B40 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:urb:wpaper:22_04&r=his |
| By: | Zimmermann, Florian (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Umkehrer, Matthias (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Ruf, Kevin (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Müller, Dana (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Seth, Stefan (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "This data report describes the Data from the Data Fund of Societal Work Power from the Federal Archive of Germany on employment in the GDR in 1989 linked with administrative data of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) (GAV-ADIAB) 1975 - 2019." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Date: | 2022–12–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfda:202213(de)&r=his |
| By: | Yves Livian (Laboratoire de Recherche Magellan - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Lyon) |
| Abstract: | La communication traite des liens ayant existé entre la sociologie des organisations et les débuts d'un champ intitulé, après des débats, "gestion des ressources humaines" à travers la parution de plusieurs ouvrages et communications dans des congrès dans la période 77-94. Une contribution à l'histoire de la pensée managériale et ses liens avec les sciences sociales. |
| Date: | 2022–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03835518&r=his |
| By: | Juan Carlos de Pablo |
| Abstract: | Las siguientes son las monografías más importantes, escritas por argentinos. En el caso de los lectores jóvenes, la lista busca mostrarles que la pólvora se descubrió mucho antes de lo que sus profesores les hicieron creer. En el caso de los lectores no tan jóvenes, refrescarles la existencia de material que fue y en muchos casos sigue siendo importante. Confeccioné la lista de memoria, de modo que ningún ausente, algunos de cuyos trabajos cree que merecen ser incluidos, debería ofenderse sino enviarme la correspondiente referencia bibliográfica. |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cem:doctra:841&r=his |
| By: | Radrigán Rubio, Mario |
| Keywords: | MINISTERIOS, INSTITUCIONES PUBLICAS, COOPERACION ENTRE ORGANISMOS, COOPERATIVAS, POLITICA DE DESARROLLO, GOVERNMENT DEPARTMENTS, PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS, INTER-AGENCY COOPERATION, COOPERATIVES, DEVELOPMENT POLICY |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:48217&r=his |
| By: | Joana Sousa-Leite; Diana Correia; Cristina Coutinho; Carmen Camacho |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the evolution dynamics of the Banco de Portugal balance sheet since the beginning of the Stage III of the EMU. Following the global financial crisis, the evolution of the Banco de Portugal balance sheet was initially driven by an increase in liabilities, namely in intra-Eurosystem liabilities related to TARGET and current accounts, reflecting the liquidity provided through monetary policy refinancing operations, which was either deposited in the central bank or transferred to euro area banks outside of Portugal. Since 2015, broader monetary policy decisions regarding the asset side of the balance sheet were designed to support economic growth and bring inflation back to the 2% target. Between 1999 and 2021, the Banco de Portugal balance sheet expansion was mostly driven by the asset purchase programmes and significant increases in central bank funding to banks and in intra-Eurosystem claims, the latter aggregate being explained by the inflow of banknotes related to the tourism activity in Portugal. |
| JEL: | E41 E44 E51 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:o202205&r=his |
| By: | Kalaitzi, Athanasia; Chamberlain, Trevor W. |
| Abstract: | This study investigates whether manufactured exports contribute to economic growth and whether imports can augment the role of exports in fostering export diversification. In the case of the latter, the study also examines which categories of imports are most likely to facilitate economic growth in the long run. In particular, the study focuses on the case of Kuwait over the period 1970–2019 and utilizes a Cobb–Douglas production function augmented with manufactured exports and primary and manufactured imports. The long-run relationships between the model variables are explored using two cointegration tests, namely the Johansen test and the dynamic ordinary least squares. The short-run causality is investigated utilizing the multivariate Granger approach in a vector autoregressive model, the parameters of which are assessed for stability using the CUSUM of squares test and recursive residuals plots. To examine the causal relationships in the long run, the Toda and Yamamoto test is applied. The cointegration tests show that the variables are cointegrated, while the Granger causality test shows that manufactured exports and disaggregated imports, together with the inputs of production, cause economic growth in the short run, which, in turn, leads to import growth. In the long run, the expansion of both primary and manufactured imports drives export diversification, whereas manufactured exports do not contribute to economic growth. These findings are very important for Kuwait’s policymakers to consider in their plans to implement Kuwait Vision 2035 as overseas demand for oil wanes. |
| Keywords: | causality; economic growth; export diversification; imports; Kuwait; Springer deal |
| JEL: | L81 N0 |
| Date: | 2022–11–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:116877&r=his |