nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2022‒12‒05
forty-nine papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Northumbria University

  1. Wealth and Its Distribution in Germany, 1895–2018 By Albers, Thilo N. H.; Bartels, Charlotte; Schularick, Moritz
  2. The Role of Immigrants, Emigrants, and Locals in the Historical Formation of Knowledge Agglomerations By Viktor Stojkoski; Philipp Koch; Cesar A. Hidalgo;
  3. Structural Change, Elite Capitalism, and the Emergence of Labor Emancipation By Boris Gershman; Quamrul H. Ashraf; Francesco Cinnirella; Oded Galor; Erik Hornung
  4. Guatemala By Fuentes, Alberto José
  5. The Fiscal Origins of Comparative Inequality levels: An Empirical and Historical Investigation By Andres Irarrazaval
  6. Measuring inflation expectations in interwar Britain By Solomou, Solomos; Lennard, Jason; Meinecke, Finn
  7. Inequality in social mobility in Southern Europe. Evidence of Class Ceiling in the area of Barcelona, 16th-19th centuries By Brea-Martinez, Gabriel; Pujadas-Mora, Joana-Maria
  8. Social fragmentation and productivity in colonial India By Mukherjee, Anirban; Sen, Shankhajit
  9. Women’s Wages and Empowerment: Pre-industrial Japan, 1600-1890 By Kumon, Yuzuru; Sakai, Kazuho
  10. The Intergenerational Transmission of College: Evidence from the 1973 Coup in Chile By Bautista, María Angélica; Gonzalez, Felipe; Martinez, Luis R.; Muñoz, Pablo; Prem, Mounu
  11. The Economics of Women's Rights By Michèle Tertilt; Matthias Doepke; Anne Hannusch; Laura Montenbruck
  12. Millet, Rice, and Isolation: Origins and Persistence of the World's Most Enduring Mega-State By Kung, James Kai-sing; Özak, Ömer; Putterman, Louis; Shi, Shuang
  13. The Gift of a Lifetime: The Hospital, Modern Medicine, and Mortality By Hollingsworth, Alex; Karbownik, Chris; Thomasson, Melissa; Wray, Anthony
  14. Japanese street dance culture in manga and anime: Hip hop transcription in Samurai Champloo and Tokyo Tribe-2 By Huang, Po-Lung
  15. Economic development patterns in the six nations of Central America (1950–2018): Executive summary By -
  16. El patrón de cambio estructural y de desarrollo de Costa Rica, 1950-2021 y retos futuros By Salazar-Xirinachs, José Manuel
  17. Tres fases en el modelo transitista de desarrollo económico de Panamá en los años 1950-2017 By Castro, Guillermo; Rosado, Julio
  18. Patrones de crecimiento y transformación estructural en la economía hondureña, 1950–2018 By Noé Pino, Hugo; Díaz, Wilfredo
  19. La integración centroamericana: apuntes sobre su historia y sobre sus retos actuales By Dada Hirezi, Héctor
  20. Legal Activism, State Policy, and Racial Inequality in Teacher Salaries and Educational Attainment in the Mid-Century American South By Elizabeth U. Cascio; Ethan G. Lewis
  21. Un balance aproximado de las semejanzas y diferencias en la evolución económica de los seis países de Centroamérica By Fuentes, Alberto José; Beteta, Hugo E.; Bielschowsky, Ricardo; Castro, María C.; Yanes, Pablo E.
  22. Factores condicionantes del crecimiento del PIB, la inversión, la productividad laboral y sus impactos en la estructura socioeconómica salvadoreña desde una perspectiva histórico-estructuralista By Cabrera, Óscar O.
  23. Writing girls through girls’ magazines: (En)gendering childhood, 1895–1912 By Suzuki, Wakako
  24. Debates, plans and interventions to overcome the 1931 banking crisis in Romania and Bulgaria By Nikolay Nenovsky; Dominique Torre
  25. The Refugee's Dilemma: Evidence from Jewish Migration out of Nazi Germany By Johannes Buggle; Thierry Mayer; Seyhun Orcan Sakalli; Mathias Thoenig
  26. Economic Sanctions: Evolution, Consequences, and Challenges By Morgan, T. Clifton; Syropoulos, Constantinos; Yotov, Yoto
  27. Nicaragua By Grigsby, Arturo
  28. Work in America: 1950 to 2019 By Ruggeri, Giuseppe
  29. The Anatomy of Intergenerational Income Mobility in France and its Spatial Variations By Gustave Kenedi; Louis Sirugue
  30. The changing shape of spatial inequality in the United States By Kemeny, Tom; Storper, Michael
  31. Keynes, Ramsey and Pragmatism By Gerrard, Bill
  32. The spectre of terrorism and the stock market By Hanna, Alan J.; Turner, John D.; Walker, Clive B.
  33. Essays on Firm Ownership, Political Preferences and Welfare By Moritz Hennicke
  34. Land Consolidation Reforms: A Natural Experiment on the Economic and Political Effects of Agricultural Mechanization By Gabriel Loumeau
  35. The Long-Term Impact of In-Utero Cigarette Taxes on Adult Prenatal Smoking By Hoehn-Velasco, Lauren; Pesko, Michael; Phillips, Serena
  36. Marriage Matching over Five Centuries in China By Carol H. Shiue; Wolfgang Keller
  37. More Unequal or Not as Rich? Revisiting the Latin American Exception By De Rosa, Mauricio; Flores, Ignacio; Morgan, Marc
  38. A Comment on Maria Paganelli's Mistaken Treatment of Adam Smith's "Four Stages" Theory of Economic Development By Ahiakpor, James C.W.
  39. Uncertainty from dictatorship to democracy: Evidence from business communications By Gonzalez, Felipe; Coy, Felipe; Prem, Mounu; von Dessauer, Cristine
  40. The United States of Europe: A Gravity Model Evaluation of the Four Freedoms By Keith Head; Thierry Mayer
  41. Animist influence and immutable corporeality: Repositioning the significance of Japanese cinematic zombies By Vétu, Guillaume
  42. How can Research on Past Urban Adaptations be Made Useful for Sustainability Science? By Smith, Michael E.
  43. An Assessment of CenSoc Match Quality By Breen, Casey; Osborne, Maria
  44. The Taylor Rule and its Aftermath: Elements for an Interpretation along Classical-Keynesian lines By Levrero, Enrico Sergio
  45. Collective defined contribution plans: Backtesting based on German capital market data 1950-2022 By Goecke, Oskar
  46. Thirty years on: A review of the Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality By Basellini, Ugofilippo; Camarda, Carlo Giovanni; Booth, Heather
  47. Nominal and Real Wages in the UK, 1750 - 2015: Mean Reversion, Persistence and Structural Breaks By Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Luis A. Gil-Alana
  48. Selection, Patience, and the Interest Rate By Radoslaw Stefanski; Alex Trew
  49. Deglobalisation and Protectionism By Uri Dadush

  1. By: Albers, Thilo N. H.; Bartels, Charlotte; Schularick, Moritz
    Abstract: German history over the past 125 years has been turbulent. Marked by two world wars, revolutions and major regime changes, as well as a hyperinflation and three currency reforms, expropriations and territorial divisions, it provides unique insights into the role of country-specific shocks in shaping long-run wealth dynamics. This paper presents the first comprehensive study of wealth and its distribution in Germany since the 19th century. We combine tax and archival data, household surveys, historical national accounts, and rich lists to analyze the evolution of the German wealth distribution over the long run. We show that the top 1% wealth share has fallen by half, from close to 50% in 1895 to 27% today. Nearly all of this decline was the result of changes that occurred between 1914 and 1952. The interwar period and the wealth taxation in the aftermath of World War II stand out as the great equalizers in 20th century German history. After unification in 1990, two trends have left their mark on the German wealth distribution. Households at the top made substantial capital gains from rising business wealth while the middle-class had large capital gains in the housing market. The wealth share of the bottom 50% halved since 1990. Our findings speak to the importance of historical shocks to the distribution and valuations of existing wealth in explaining the evolution of the wealth distribution over the long run. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper)
    Date: 2022–08–29
  2. By: Viktor Stojkoski; Philipp Koch; Cesar A. Hidalgo;
    Abstract: Did migrants help make Paris a center for the arts and Vienna a beacon of classical music? Or was the rise of these knowledge agglomerations a sole consequence of local actors? Here, we use data on the biographies of more than 22,000 famous historical individuals born between the years 1000 and 2000 to estimate the contribution of famous immigrants, emigrants, and locals to the knowledge specializations of European regions. We find that the probability that a region develops a specialization in a new activity (physics, philosophy, painting, music, etc.) grows with the presence of immigrants with knowledge on that activity and of immigrants specialized in related activities. We also find that the probability that a region loses one of its existing areas of specialization decreases with the presence of immigrants specialized in that activity and in related activities. In contrast, we do not find robust evidence that locals with related knowledge play a statistically significant role in a region entering or exiting a new specialization. These findings advance our understanding of the role of migration in the historical formation of knowledge agglomerations. nations.
    Keywords: migration, knowledge spillovers, relatedness, economic history
    JEL: N13 N93 O15 O33
    Date: 2022–11
  3. By: Boris Gershman; Quamrul H. Ashraf; Francesco Cinnirella; Oded Galor; Erik Hornung
    Abstract: This study argues that the decline of coercive labor institutions over the course of industrialization was partly driven by complementarity between physical capital and effective labor in manufacturing. Given that it is difficult to extract labor effort in care-intensive industrial tasks through monitoring and punishment, capital-owning elites ultimately chose to emancipate workers to induce their supply of effective labor and, thus, boost the return to physical capital. This mechanism is empirically examined in the context of serf emancipation in nineteenth-century Prussia. Exploiting a plausibly exogenous source of variation in proto-industrialization across Prussian regions, the analysis finds that, consistent with the proposed hypothesis, the initial abundance of elite-owned capital contributed to a higher intensity of subsequent serf emancipation and the elites’ willingness to accept emancipation in exchange for lower redemption payments.
    Keywords: Labor coercion, serfdom, emancipation, industrialization, capital accumulation, effective labor, nineteenth-century Prussia
    JEL: J24 J47 N13 N33 O14 O15 O43
    Date: 2022
  4. By: Fuentes, Alberto José
    Date: 2022–10–06
  5. By: Andres Irarrazaval
    Abstract: The literature studying the determinants of inequality and development in the Americas and across former colonies has largely overemphasized colonial legacies and an allegedly “institutionalized†unequal distribution of assets and opportunities to explain record-high inequality levels in Latin America, India, or Africa. This research exploits novel evidence on current and historical inequality dynamics, as well as an instrumental variable (IV) strategy (founded on historical settler mortality à la Acemoglu et al.), to document the fundamental role of income redistribution through taxes and transfers in accounting for differences in inequality across regions and historical periods. The findings challenge the conventional wisdom about the origins of world-leading inequality levels in Latin America, India or Africa, showing that inequality is not rooted in the colonial period nor are current inequality levels explained by supposedly persistent “extractive†economic institutions maintaining an unequal playing field. De facto, Latin America, Africa and India have had, in most cases, lower inequality levels than Western countries (i.e. Western Europe and its Offshoots) until the early 20th century. Before this period, no different than in colonized nations, Western countries had a regressive fiscal system that required the poorest taxpayers to fund public services that benefited richer households. The IV strategy, and the evidence on inequality dynamics, both indicate that contemporary inequality differences are a product of the 20th century. The emergence of redistributive policies due to democratization, which have taken place in the past century, have led to an exceptional inequality reduction in Western countries. Despite that Latin America and India have converged towards “inclusive†economic institutions, high inequality has persisted through a regressive fiscal equilibrium which still is largely in place due to a slower democratization process. In these regions, low checks and balances on the executive and limited political voice undermined the formation of the credible commitments necessary to raise substantial progressive taxation (notably direct taxes) and the political participation required to mobilize such resources towards redistribution. It seems that there is “no redistribution without representation†.
    Date: 2021–11
  6. By: Solomou, Solomos; Lennard, Jason; Meinecke, Finn
    Abstract: What caused the recovery from the British Great Depression? A leading explanation – the ‘expectations channel’– suggests that a shift in expected inflation lowered realinterest rates and stimulated consumption and invest-ment. However, few studies have measured, or tested theeconomic consequences of, inflation expectations. In thispaper,wecollecthigh-frequencyinformationfromprimaryand secondary sources to measure expected inflation inthe United Kingdom between the wars. A high-frequencyvector autoregression suggests that inflation expectationswere an important source of the early stages of economicrecovery in interwar Britain.
    Keywords: Great depression; inflation; expectations; interwar Britain; regime change; Wiley deal
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2022–09–16
  7. By: Brea-Martinez, Gabriel; Pujadas-Mora, Joana-Maria
    Abstract: Preindustrial social mobility is still primarily understudied in present times, and most early-industrial social mobility research has focused strictly on occupational mobility, not fully capturing the substantial socioeconomic disparities within occupational groups that presumably always existed. In this study, we contribute to the literature by estimating long-term trends in intergenerational social mobility in Barcelona and its hinterland. Using the Barcelona Historical Marriage Database, we assess disparities between socially and non-socially mobile individuals within occupational groups through unique data covering occupational prestige and economic information. We use data from genealogic reconstitutions done with probabilistic record linkage. We find that using a combined SES approach (occupational prestige and economic capacity) can capture both class differences and within-occupation disparities. Accordingly, socioeconomic mobility increased since the beginning of the 18th, during the Catalan protoindustrialization, but with significant class disparities. SES persistence would have increased for Non-Manuals' children, stagnated for Artisans' children, and declined for Farmers'. Moreover, within-occupational groups, we find that upward-mobile individuals would have always been disadvantaged in socioeconomic terms compared to immobile, a constant characteristic from the preindustrial periods until the end of the 19th century. These results suggest that socially immobile (intergenerationally) would perform better than mobile, independent of the period, which seems to recall the sociological concept of class ceiling.
    Date: 2022–11–03
  8. By: Mukherjee, Anirban (University of Calcutta); Sen, Shankhajit
    Abstract: In this paper, we examine the role of social environment on firm productivity using the case of textile mills in twentieth century India. During the twentieth century, Indian textile mills were known for lower productivity than the contemporary British, American, or Japanese mills. While most of the existing studies offered explanations by directly making cross-country comparisons, we seek to explain productivity differences across Indian firms. We argue that low productivity of textile mills in colonial India was a result of a failure to generate tacit knowledge which was critical for technology adoption. The process of tacit knowledge creation depended on exchange of knowledge and ideas at the social level and therefore, is a function of demographic factors and ethnic composition of the society. In our paper, we combine input-output data from colonial textile firms with city level demographic characteristics in colonial India and estimate the effect of age structure, religious composition, and caste fragmentation on productivity. We find that the city level Muslim-Hindu ratio and inter-religion conflict negatively affected textile productivity in colonial India. The textile mills in the twentieth century India used a combination of American (ring frame) and British (mule frame) technology. We also find that cities with higher caste fragmentation were more likely to adopt American technology which required less coordination.
    Date: 2022–08–25
  9. By: Kumon, Yuzuru (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Sakai, Kazuho (Tohoku University, Graduate School of Economics and Management)
    Abstract: Using new evidence from servant contracts, 1600-1890, we estimate women’s wages in Japan. Women’s wages could only sustain 1.5-2 people up to 1900, the lowest recorded in the pre-industrial world. We then show the gender wage ratio was 0.7, higher than in Western Europe. Despite this, Japan had lower female empowerment for two reasons. First, absolute wages were low, so women were not economically autonomous. Second, landownership incomes were mostly earned by men, raising their bargaining positions. The low female empowerment in Japan could explain the early and universal marriage of its women unlike their empowered Western European counterparts.
    Keywords: Womens Wages; Empowerment
    JEL: N00
    Date: 2022–11–16
  10. By: Bautista, María Angélica; Gonzalez, Felipe (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile); Martinez, Luis R.; Muñoz, Pablo; Prem, Mounu
    Abstract: We study the transmission of higher education across generations using the arrival of the Pinochet dictatorship to Chile in 1973 as natural experiment. Pinochet promoted a large contraction in the number of seats opened for new students across all universities. Using census data, we find that parents who reached college age shortly after 1973 experienced a sharp decline in college enrollment. Decades after democratization, we observe that their children are also less likely to enroll in higher education. The results imply large and persistent downstream effects of educational policies implemented half a century ago.
    Date: 2022–06–15
  11. By: Michèle Tertilt; Matthias Doepke; Anne Hannusch; Laura Montenbruck
    Abstract: Two centuries ago, in most countries around the world, women were unable to vote, had no say over their own children or property, and could not obtain a divorce. Women have gradually gained rights in many areas of life, and this legal expansion has been closely intertwined with economic development. We aim to understand the drivers behind these reforms. To this end, we distinguish between four types of women’s rights—economic, political, labor, and body—and document their evolution over the past 50 years across countries. We summarize the political-economy mechanisms that link economic development to changes in women's rights and show empirically that these mechanisms account for a large share of the variation in women's rights across countries and over time.
    JEL: D13 D72 J12 J16 N3 N40 O10 P0
    Date: 2022–11
  12. By: Kung, James Kai-sing; Özak, Ömer (Southern Methodist University); Putterman, Louis; Shi, Shuang
    Abstract: We propose and test empirically a theory describing the endogenous formation and persistence of mega-states, using China as an example. We suggest that the relative timing of the emergence of agricultural societies, and their distance from each other, set off a race between their autochthonous state-building projects, which determines their extent and persistence. Using a novel dataset describing the historical presence of Chinese states, prehistoric development, the diffusion of agriculture, and migratory distance across 1-degree x 1-degree grid cells in eastern Asia, we find that cells that adopted agriculture earlier and were close to Erlitou -- the earliest political center in eastern Asia -- remained under Chinese control for longer and continue to be a part of China today. By contrast, cells that adopted agriculture early and were located further from Erlitou developed into independent states, as agriculture provided the fertile ground for state-formation, while isolation provided time for them to develop and confront the expanding Chinese empire. Our study sheds important light on why eastern Asia kept reproducing a mega-state in the area that became China and on the determinants of its borders with other states.
    Date: 2022–06–04
  13. By: Hollingsworth, Alex; Karbownik, Chris; Thomasson, Melissa; Wray, Anthony
    Abstract: The past century witnessed a dramatic improvement in public health, the rise of modern medicine, and the transformation of the hospital from a fringe institution to one essential to the practice of medicine. Despite the central role of medicine in contemporary society, little is known about how hospitals and modern medicine contributed to this health transition. In this paper, we explore how access to the hospital and modern medicine affects mortality. We do so by leveraging a combination of novel data and a unique quasi-experiment: a large-scale hospital modernization program introduced by The Duke Endowment in the early twentieth century. The Endowment helped communities build and expand hospitals, obtain state-of-the-art medical technology, attract qualified medical personnel, and refine management practices. We find that access to a Duke-supported hospital reduced infant mortality by 10%, saving one life for every $20,000 (2017 dollars) spent. Effects were larger for Black infants (16%) than for White infants (7%), implying a reduction in the Black-White infant mortality gap by one-third. We show that the effect of Duke support persisted into later life with a 9% reduction in mortality between the ages of 56 and 65. We further provide evidence on the mechanisms that enabled these effects, finding that Endowment-supported hospitals attracted higher-quality physicians and were better able to take advantage of new medical innovations.
    Date: 2022–11–10
  14. By: Huang, Po-Lung (Kobe University)
    Abstract: Street dance, one of the four most important elements of hip hop culture, was developed mainly by African American youths in the 1970s and imported to Japan in the 1980s. Since then, street dance has been diversified by local media such as manga/anime in Japan. This article therefore analyses how Japanese storytelling, exemplified by Shin’ichirō Watanabe’s anime Samurai Champloo (2004–05), Santa Inoue’s manga Tokyo Tribe-2 (1997–2005) and Tatsuo Satō’s anime adaptation Tokyo Tribes 2 (2006–07), has transcribed the hip hop elements into the Tokugawa-Edo period’s art scenes and fictitious ‘Tōkyō’, and provides a basis for understanding hip hop culture in Japan by drawing on Charles Taylor’s ‘language of perspicuous contrast’ (1985). Although manga and anime quickly reflected popular cultural trends in Japan, hip hop elements did not manifest as main material until Tokyo Tribe-2 was released. Thus, there was apparently a prolonged interval between the arrival of hip hop culture in Japan and its representation by manga/anime after Japanese youths’ first fancied street dance. Therefore, street dance culture could have been transformed within the Japanese cultural context. This article also analyses the representation/transcription of street dance and hip hop in manga/amine by contextualizing the Japanesesocialpolitical background to explain this prolonged interval.
    Date: 2021–03–31
  15. By: -
    Abstract: This publication presents an overview of the history of growth and structural transformations in the six Central American countries between the mid-20th century and the end of the 2010s. The authors identify lights and shadows in the historical experience of countries to illuminate reflection on future development strategies and policies. The analysis is based in the historical-structural approach of Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), whose purpose is to examine the movement in the national productive and social structures over time, considering the endowment of resources, the effects of national policies and institutional changes, as well as the international economic environment in which economies are inserted. The authors review the history of Central American integration as well, and it is reinforced the importance of carrying out comparative studies, establishing the similarities and differences in the socioeconomic evolution of the six countries. To conclude, a vision of the future that implies a change in the development models of each country and the region is proposed.
    Date: 2022–10–06
  16. By: Salazar-Xirinachs, José Manuel
    Date: 2022–10–06
  17. By: Castro, Guillermo; Rosado, Julio
    Date: 2022–10–06
  18. By: Noé Pino, Hugo; Díaz, Wilfredo
    Date: 2022–10–06
  19. By: Dada Hirezi, Héctor
    Date: 2022–10–06
  20. By: Elizabeth U. Cascio; Ethan G. Lewis
    Abstract: In the late 1930s, the NAACP launched a campaign to equalize Black and white teacher salaries in the de jure segregated schools of the American South. Using newly collected county panel data spanning three decades, this paper first documents heterogeneous within-state impacts of the campaign on teacher salaries. In states that reinforced successful NAACP litigation by introducing universal minimum salary schedules based on objective criteria, the relatively large wage penalty historically suffered by Black teachers in districts with higher Black enrollment shares disappeared by the mid-1950s. In states that resisted by adopting salary schedules using the National Teacher Examination as a measure of teaching efficacy, that penalty remained. In the second part of the paper, we estimate the effect of teacher pay on educational attainment exploiting variation in Black salary gains over time across counties with different Black enrollment shares, and across states by whether subsequent state policy reinforced or resisted court rulings favorable to the NAACP. We find that Black teacher salary gains contributed to the large reductions in racial inequality in school enrollment and grade progression in the South at mid-century.
    JEL: H7 I2 J15 N32
    Date: 2022–11
  21. By: Fuentes, Alberto José; Beteta, Hugo E.; Bielschowsky, Ricardo; Castro, María C.; Yanes, Pablo E.
    Date: 2022–10–06
  22. By: Cabrera, Óscar O.
    Date: 2022–10–06
  23. By: Suzuki, Wakako
    Abstract: Throughout Japanese literary history, though the shōjo genre (a genre for girls) was often marginalized, it evolved and was renewed at every stage in the development of print media, blending with another or several different genres. This article examines how the circulation of girls’ magazines such as Shōjokai (Girls’ Sphere) shaped girls’ reading communities to accompany the sense of national belonging that arose in tandem with the reinforcement of gender ideologies. An analysis of Shōjokai will show how, why and by whom images of desirable female ‘little citizens’ were constructed, fractured and expressed through print media. As the first girls’ magazine, Shōjokai delineated how the reading and writing of girls opened up a new arena in which subscribers expressed their ideas and opinions without constrains while understanding the value of being good ‘little citizens’. Thus, the development of girls’ communities created tensions between universal principles of love and national consciousness, illuminating the ways in which the discourse of modern girlhood alternately negated and affirmed their association with fluid communities for ‘little citizens’.
    Date: 2021–03–31
  24. By: Nikolay Nenovsky (LEFMI - Laboratoire d’Économie, Finance, Management et Innovation - UR UPJV 4286 - UPJV - Université de Picardie Jules Verne); Dominique Torre (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur)
    Abstract: In summer 1931, the Austro-German banking crisis propagated in Romania and Bulgaria. In the Romanian case, the management of the crisis confronted three types of protagonists-politics, bankers and central bankers-and positions about the relevant attitude to adopt, in to avoid or not the Marmorosch Blank Bank bankruptcy. In Bulgaria, the management of the crisis was more consensual. The intervention of the Bulgarian National Bank allowed to refund the more important banks, while other 34 were declared bankrupt and smaller ones silently disappear. One of the largest banks in Bulgaria, Credit Bank, has been rescued. Archive documents, reports of participants and comments from contemporaries, emphasize the different conceptions of the function of lender of last resort by the different 1 The authors would like to acknowledge Hans-Michael Trautwein whose comments and remarks have helped to improve the quality of this text. They are also indebted to Valentin Fuscan and to the participants of the Conference
    Keywords: G33,lender of last resort,Balkan economic history,banking crisis,twin crises
    Date: 2022–04
  25. By: Johannes Buggle (University of Vienna [Vienna]); Thierry Mayer (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Seyhun Orcan Sakalli (King‘s College London); Mathias Thoenig (UNIL - Université de Lausanne = University of Lausanne, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR)
    Abstract: We estimate the push and pull factors involved in the outmigration of Jews facing persecution in Nazi Germany from 1933 to 1941. Our empirical investigation makes use of a unique individual-level dataset that records the migration history of the Jewish community in Germany over the period. Our analysis highlights new channels, specific to violent contexts, through which social networks affect the decision to flee. We first estimate a structural model of migration where individuals base their own migration decision on the observation of persecution and migration among their peers. Identification rests on exogenous variations in local push and pull factors across peers who live in different cities of residence. Then we perform various experiments of counterfactual history to quantify how migration restrictions in destination countries affected the fate of Jews. For example, removing work restrictions for refugees in the recipient countries after the Nuremberg Laws (of 1935) would have led to an increase in Jewish migration out of Germany in the range of 12 to 20%, and a reduction in mortality due to prevented deportations in the range of 6 to 10%.
    Keywords: Refugees,Migration Policy,Counterfactual History,Nazi Germany
    Date: 2022–04–14
  26. By: Morgan, T. Clifton (Rice University); Syropoulos, Constantinos (Drexel University); Yotov, Yoto (Drexel University)
    Abstract: Taking an interdisciplinary perspective, we examine the evolution of economic sanctions in the post-World War II era and reflect on the lessons that could be drawn from their patterns of use. We observe that, during this time, there has been a remarkable increase in the use of sanctions as an instrument of foreign policy. We classify this period into four `eras' and discuss, in this context, how the evolution of sanctions may be linked to salient features of the contemporaneous international political and economic orders. Our review of the literatures on sanctions in economics and political science suggests, among other things, that our understanding of sanction processes could be significantly advanced by marrying these perspectives. We conclude by identifying several questions and challenges, and by discussing how interdisciplinary research could address them.
    Keywords: Sanctions; Evolution of Sanctions; Sanction Success and Effectiveness
    JEL: F13 F14 F51
    Date: 2022–11–12
  27. By: Grigsby, Arturo
    Date: 2022–10–06
  28. By: Ruggeri, Giuseppe
    Abstract: This paper uses a consistent methodology to estimate average weekly hours of work in the United States in 1950 and 2019. It also reviews a number of studies that cover parts of the same period. Making adjustments where possible to reduce methodological differences, this review identifies three sub-periods: 1950 to 1980, when working hours declined; 1980 to 1990, when working hours rose; and 1990 to 2019, when working hours remained constant. It also briefly discusses the importance of a variety of factors affecting the different response by working hours to the growth of real GDP and labor productivity during the first and last sub-periods.
    Keywords: work in america
    JEL: J01
    Date: 2022
  29. By: Gustave Kenedi (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Louis Sirugue (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: We provide new estimates of intergenerational income mobility in France for children born in the 1970s using rich administrative data. Since parents' incomes are not observed, we employ a two-sample two-stage least squares estimation procedure. At the national level, every measure of intergenerational income persistence (intergenerational elasticities, rank-rank correlations, and transition matrices) suggests that France is characterized by relatively strong persistence relative to other developed countries. Children born to parents in the bottom 20% of their income distribution have a 10.1% probability of reaching the top 20% as adults. This probability is of 39.1% for children born to parents in the top 20%. At the local level, we find substantial spatial variations in intergenerational mobility. It is higher in the West of France and particularly low in the North and in the South. We uncover significant relationships between absolute upward mobility and characteristics of the environment an individual grew up in, such as the unemployment rate, population density, and income inequality.
    Keywords: Intergenerational mobility,Measurement,Spatial variations,France
    Date: 2021–11
  30. By: Kemeny, Tom; Storper, Michael
    Abstract: Spatial income disparities have increased in the United States since 1980. Growth in this form of inequality is linked to major social, economic and political challenges. Yet, contemporary patterns, and how they relate to those of the past, remain insufficiently well understood. Building on population survey microdata spanning 1940-2019, this paper uses group-based trajectory modelling techniques to identify distinct sets of local labor markets based on the evolution of their income levels. We find that the increase in spatial inequality since 1980 is almost entirely driven by a small number of populous, economically-important, and resiliently high-performing `superstar' city-regions. Meanwhile, since 1940, much of the rest of the urban system has continued to converge toward the mean. We examine the demographic, economic and social characteristics of these different trajectories, identifying catch-up regions, declining regions, long-term winners, and possible future superstars. There is considerable turbulence within the convergence process, consisting of regions that are moving both upward and downward in the system. We conclude by exploring implications for the American urban-regional system in the mid-21st century, considering the challenges in overcoming the growing split between superstar locations and the rest of the country.
    Date: 2022–06–27
  31. By: Gerrard, Bill
    Abstract: In his recent paper in this journal, Bateman (2021) breaks with the “Standard View” of Ramsey’s influence on Keynes and argues that Ramsey’s pragmatist philosophical thought underpinned both Keynes’s acceptance of Ramsey’s subjective theory of probability, and Keynes’s adoption of a narrative theory of the role of confidence in economic fluctuations in the General Theory. In this paper it is argued that Bateman is right both in emphasizing the influence of Ramsey’s pragmatist philosophy on Keynes’s thought during the development of the General Theory and afterwards, and in arguing that the influence of Ramsey’s pragmatist philosophy partly explains Keynes’s emphasis on the importance of the state of confidence in Chapter 12 of the General Theory. However, it is argued that Ramsey’s pragmatist philosophy had a much greater influence on Keynes than acknowledged by Bateman. Furthermore, contra Bateman, Keynes’s move to a more pragmatist philosophical position does not imply that Keynes’s accepted Ramsey’s subjective theory of (measurable) probability.
    Date: 2022–07–26
  32. By: Hanna, Alan J.; Turner, John D.; Walker, Clive B.
    Abstract: Terrorism is a major issue in the 21st century. In this paper we examine the effect of terrorism on the stock market. We go beyond previous studies to explore the spectre of terrorism on the market rather than terrorist activities. Using a narrative-based approach à la Shiller (2019), we find that the spectre of terrorism during the Northern Ireland Troubles reduced returns and increased volatility on the UK stock market.
    Keywords: terrorism,stock market,returns,volatility,narratives
    JEL: C00 E44 G12 G40 N24
    Date: 2022
  33. By: Moritz Hennicke
    Abstract: Does firm ownership matter for people's political preferences and their welfare? This thesis sheds light on this question by revisiting one of the largest reorganizations of ultimate company ownership in recent history – East Germany’s mass privatization program following the fall of the wall and the German reunification. The program sold, communalized, restituted or liquidated almost the entirety of East Germany's former communist firms in 5 years. In the first chapter of this thesis, in a joint work with Moritz Lubczyk and Lukas Mergele, we build a comprehensive dataset from digitized and electronic firm records with the aim of examining the privatization program’s objective to privatize economically viable communist firms. We document that firms with higher baseline productivity are more likely to be privatized, yield higher sales prices, are more often acquired by West Germans, and are more likely to survive 20 years later. These stylized facts can be interpreted such that the privatization agency did not grossly violate its mandate. We do not answer the question whether the mandate was the right one. The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 brought the end of socialism, yet pro-socialist sentiment regained momentum surprisingly quickly across Eastern Europe. The second chapter written with Anselm Hager, Werner Krause and Lukas Mergele, poses the question why voters moved back to an ideology that was associated with rigged elections and lackluster economic performance? This paper points to the rushed privatization of East European economies as one plausible driver of the revival of socialist voting. Using micro-level data from East Germany, we show that firm privatizations led to a marked resurgence of the former Socialist Unity Party. We argue that this effect is likely due to perceived injustice: Socialist voting thrived whenever firms were sold to Western elites, which East Germans took as a sign that capitalism was not meritocratic. In the third chapter, I study the effects of restructuring of communist firms on the welfare of workers. Event studies of privatization at the level of firms demonstrate that privatized firms reduce employment and experience a decline in revenue compared to firms that remain state-owned. I use a bargaining model of workers and firms to explain these findings, assuming that state-owned firms facing uncertain shocks to profits are less risk averse than private owners. Linking privatizations to labor markets at the district-industry level, I find that privatizations had adverse effects on employment, income and life satisfaction.
    Abstract: La propriété des entreprises a-t-elle une incidence sur les préférences politiques des individus et sur leur bien-être ?Cette thèse met en lumière cette question en revisitant l'une des plus grandes réorganisations de la propriété ultime des entreprises dans l'histoire récente - le programme de privatisation massive de l'Allemagne de l'Est communiste après la chute du mur et la réunification de l'Allemagne. Ce programme a vendu, municipalisé, restitué ou liquidé la quasi-totalité du stock d'entreprises de l'Allemagne de l'Est en cinq ans. Dans le premier chapitre de cette thèse, en collaboration avec Moritz Lubczyk et Lukas Mergele, nous combinons un mélange de dossiers d'entreprise numérisés et électroniques avec des données d'enquête pour assembler un riche ensemble de données afin d'examiner l'objectif du programme de privatisation de privatiser les entreprises communistes économiquement viables. Nous montrons que les entreprises dont la productivité de base est plus élevée ont plus de chances d'être privatisées, que leurs prix de vente sont plus élevés, qu'elles sont plus souvent acquises par les Allemands de l'Ouest et qu'elles ont plus de chances de survivre 20 ans plus tard. Ces faits stylisés peuvent être interprétés de telle sorte que l'agence de privatisation n'a pas violé de manière flagrante son mandat. Nous ne répondons pas à la question de savoir si le mandat était le bon.La chute du mur de Berlin en 1989 a sonné le glas du socialisme, mais le sentiment prosocialiste a retrouvé un élan étonnamment rapide dans toute l'Europe de l'Est. Dans le deuxième chapitre, rédigé avec Anselm Hager, Werner Krause et Lukas Mergele, nous interrogeons la raison pour laquelle les électeurs sont revenus à une idéologie associée à des élections truquées et à des performances économiques médiocres. Cet article indique que la privatisation précipitée des économies de l'Europe de l'Est est l'un des moteurs plausibles de la renaissance du vote socialiste. En utilisant des données microéconomiques de l'Allemagne de l'Est, nous montrons que les privatisations d'entreprises ont conduit à une résurgence marquée de l'ancien Parti de l'unité socialiste. Nous soutenons que cet effet est probablement dû à l'injustice perçue :Le vote socialiste a prospéré lorsque les entreprises ont été vendues aux élites occidentales, ce que les Allemands de l'Est ont pris comme un signe que le capitalisme n'était pas méritocratique. Dans le troisième chapitre, j'étudie les effets de la restructuration des entreprises communistes sur le bien-être des travailleurs. Les études événementielles de la privatisation au niveau des entreprises montrent que les entreprises privatisées réduisent l'emploi et subissent une baisse de leurs revenus par rapport aux entreprises qui restent publiques. J'utilise un modèle de négociation entre les travailleurs et les entreprises pour expliquer ces résultats, en supposant que les entreprises d'État confrontées à des chocs incertains sur leurs bénéfices ont moins d'aversion au risque que les propriétaires privés. En reliant les privatisations aux marchés du travail au niveau district-industrie, je constate que les privatisations ont eu des effets négatifs sur l'emploi, le revenu et la satisfaction de vie.
    Abstract: Spielt Firmeneigentum eine Rolle für die politischen Präferenzen von Menschen und ihr Wohlergehen? Die vorliegende Arbeit beleuchtet diese Frage, indem sie eine der größten Umstrukturierungen von Unternehmenseigentum in der jüngeren Geschichte untersucht - das ostdeutsche Massenprivatisierungsprogramm nach dem Fall der Mauer und der deutschen Wiedervereinigung. Im Rahmen dieses Programms wurde innerhalb von fünf Jahren fast die Gesamtheit der ehemals kommunistischen Unternehmen Ostdeutschlands verkauft, kommunalisiert, restituiert oder liquidiert. Im ersten Kapitel dieser Arbeit in Zusammenarbeit mit Moritz Lubczyk und Lukas Mergele, erstellen wir einen umfassenden Datensatz aus digitalisierten und elektronischen Unternehmensregistern von ehemaligen Kombinatsbetrieben im ostdeutschen Privatisierungsprogramm. Wir untersuchen das Ziel der Privatisierungsbehörde wirtschaftlich tragfähige Firmen zu privatisieren. Wir dokumentieren, dass Firmen mit höherer Ausgangsproduktivität eher privatisiert werden, höhere Verkaufspreise erzielen, häufiger von Westdeutschen übernommen werden und 20 Jahre später eher überleben. Diese stilisierten Fakten können dahingehend interpretiert werden, dass die Privatisierungsagentur ihren Auftrag nicht grob verletzt hat. Ob das Mandat das richtige war, können wir nicht beurteilen. Der Fall der Berliner Mauer im Jahr 1989 brachte das Ende des Sozialismus, doch die pro-sozialistische Stimmung gewann in Osteuropa überraschend schnell wieder an Fahrt. Im zweiten Kapitel, das gemeinsam mit Anselm Hager, Werner Krause und Lukas Mergele verfasst wurde, wird die Frage gestellt, warum die Wähler zu einer Ideologie zurückkehrten, die mit Wahlfälschungen und mangelnder wirtschaftlicher Leistung in Verbindung gebracht wurde. Wir argumentieren, dass die überstürzte Privatisierung der osteuropäischen Volkswirtschaften ein plausibler Grund für das Wiederaufleben der sozialistischen Wählerschaft sein kann. Anhand von Mikrodaten aus Ostdeutschland zeigen wir, dass Firmenprivatisierungen zu einem deutlichen Wiedererstarken der ehemaligen Sozialistischen Einheitspartei führten. Wir argumentieren, dass dieser Effekt wahrscheinlich auf eine wahrgenommene Ungerechtigkeit zurückzuführen ist: Die sozialistische Partei wurde vor Allem dort gewählt, wo Unternehmen an westliche Eliten verkauft wurden. Dies wurde von vielen Ostdeutschen als Zeichen dafür gesehen, dass der Kapitalismus nicht meritokratisch ist. Im dritten Kapitel untersuche ich die Auswirkungen der Umstrukturierung kommunistischer Unternehmen auf Arbeitnehmerinnen und Arbeitnehmer. Ich zeige auf, dass privatisierte Unternehmen im Vergleich zu Unternehmen die in staatlichem Besitz bleiben, Arbeitsplätze abbauen und einen Rückgang der Einnahmen verzeichnen. Ein mathematisches Verhandlungsmodell von Arbeitnehmern und Unternehmen kann diese Ergebnisse erklären unter der Annahme, dass staatliche Unternehmen eher bereit sind Risiken einzugehen in dem unsicheren Investitionsumfeld. Durch die Verknüpfung von Privatisierungen mit Arbeitnehmerinnen und Arbeitnehmern in Arbeitsmärkten auf Bezirks- und Industrieebene stelle ich fest, dass Privatisierungen negative Auswirkungen auf Beschäftigung, Einkommen und Lebenszufriedenheit hatten.
    Keywords: firm ownership; state-owned enterprise; privatization; employment; political preferences; communism; socialism; life satisfaction; welfare; Treuhand; German reunification; East Germany; restructuring; worker
    Date: 2022–10–24
  34. By: Gabriel Loumeau (ETH Zurich, Department of Management, Technology, and Economics, Leonhardstrasse 21, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland)
    Abstract: This paper studies the causal economic and political effects of agricultural mechanization. For identification, it exploits a spatial discontinuity in the intensity of mechanization induced by land consolidation reforms in France between 1945 and 2008. The results suggest that an increase in mechanization leads to long-term growth in population (+9.5%), employment (+15%), and income (+0.5%), but also to an increase in the far-right vote share (+6.1%). To explain the rise in populism despite significant economic growth, the paper shows that mechanization also induces significant immigration flows and changes in social organization (via the decline of the family farm model).
    Keywords: Mechanization, Natural experiment, Land consolidation, Local activity, Populism
    JEL: D72 O33 Q12 Q15 N54
    Date: 2022–11
  35. By: Hoehn-Velasco, Lauren (Georgia State University); Pesko, Michael (Georgia State University); Phillips, Serena (Georgia State University)
    Abstract: This study examines the long-term link between in-utero cigarette taxes and adult prenatal smoking. We use U.S. birth certificate records to demonstrate that exposure to higher in-utero cigarette taxes (over 1965-2001) reduces later-life adult pre-pregnancy and prenatal smoking. We also show that higher in-utero cigarette taxes have long-lasting effects on adult health, and intergenerational consequences for infant health. Finally, we demonstrate that larger in-utero tax responsiveness correlates with smaller contemporary cigarette tax responsiveness, suggesting that higher in-utero taxes may alter the composition of remaining smokers and contribute to reductions in contemporary cigarette tax responsiveness.
    Keywords: prenatal smoking, cigarette taxes, long-term, early-life influences human capital
    JEL: I12 I18 H71 H75
    Date: 2022–10
  36. By: Carol H. Shiue; Wolfgang Keller
    Abstract: In the marriage market, families make investments on behalf of their young so that they are able to form a household with their preferred partner. We analyze marriage markets in a central region of China between about 1300 and 1850 through the lens of a model of marriage matching and intergenerational transmission of inequality. For both female and male children, marriage patterns are far from being random, instead, there is positive assortative matching. This is present for the entire income distribution, though at the highest levels matching on income is thirty times of what it is at low income levels. Over the sample period the degree of matching falls, and more so for young females, although from a lower level than young males. Lower marriage matching in the 18th and 19th centuries is accompanied by lower inequality across households, yielding a positive time series correlation between sorting and inequality. There are also intergenerational matching returns. Children of parents who are strongly matched tend to be able to marry into relatively high-income in-law families, conditional on the incomes in both the father's and the mother's families. Matching in the parent generation pays off more strongly for male than for female children. Second, marriage matching by the parents raises child income. Thus, parental marriage investments affect the income distribution from one generation to the next. Finally, we show that intergenerational matching returns have declined over the sample period, further strengthening evidence that incentives for parental marriage investments in China became weaker over time.
    JEL: J12 J16 N30 N45
    Date: 2022–11
  37. By: De Rosa, Mauricio; Flores, Ignacio; Morgan, Marc
    Abstract: Latin America is often portrayed as a global exception to the rising or consolidating inequality trends of the early twenty-first century. However, the use of administrative data and macroeconomic aggregates casts doubts on this survey-based narrative. In this paper we ask whether the region was exceptional after all. We address this question by building the most comprehensive database thus far, which accounts for 80% of the region's population and combines harmonized surveys, social security and tax data, and national accounts. We produce a set of inequality indicators—pre- and post-tax, based on alternative units and income definitions—which allows us to track the distributional effects of each methodological decision and reconcile divergent trends. The reconciliation of micro and macro data present us with a dilemma: either the region is more unequal than previously thought or it is not as rich. While the downward inequality trend did exist for some countries, it is not present for the entire region. The falling inequality narrative does hold for the bottom 99% post-tax incomes—more so when social spending is considered—but flattens or reverses in the largest economies once capital incomes and the top 1% are better accounted for. These results confirm the strengths and highlight the limits of Latin America's redistributive policies during the period. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper)
    Date: 2022–08–24
  38. By: Ahiakpor, James C.W.
    Abstract: Paganelli (2022) casts doubt on whether Adam Smith argues a “Four Stages” theory or a “stadial model” of socio-economic development; she dismisses the usefulness of cross-section data to evaluate Smith’s theory of the evolution of economies; and she misinterprets several texts in the Wealth of Nations. Disregarding more accurate interpreters of Smith, she invites us to inquire again into the causes of the wealth of nations since Smith, in her judgment, has failed in that effort. But Smith’s Wealth of Nations, carefully read, is an essential guide to policy formulation to promote the efficient development of economies. My comment clarifies.
    Date: 2022–07–24
  39. By: Gonzalez, Felipe (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile); Coy, Felipe; Prem, Mounu; von Dessauer, Cristine
    Abstract: On the eve of a democratization by election, one of the most common forms of transition, dictators can use uncertainty about the future to win political support. We study the evolution of uncertainty from dictatorship to democracy in Chile using text analysis of business communications. We construct new measures of firm-level uncertainty and compare them to perceptions of international experts. We find that uncertainty changes little around the election triggering the transition and decreases markedly after the return to democracy. The exploitation of a misperceived high uncertainty epitomizes the type of errors dictators make before elections that threaten their power.
    Date: 2022–07–07
  40. By: Keith Head (UBC - University of British Columbia); Thierry Mayer (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: One of the pillars of the 1957 Treaty of Rome that ultimately led to the European Union is the commitment to the four freedoms of movement (goods, services, persons, and capital). Over the following decades, as the members expanded in numbers, they also sought to deepen the integration amongst themselves in all four dimensions. This paper estimates the success of these policies based primarily on a gravity framework. Distinct from past evaluations, we augment the traditional equation for international flows with the corresponding intra-national flows, permitting us to distinguish welfare-improving reductions in frictions from Fortress-Europe effects. We complement the gravity approach by measuring the extent of price convergence. We compare both quantity and price assessments of free movement with corresponding estimates for the 50 American states.
    Date: 2021–05–01
  41. By: Vétu, Guillaume
    Abstract: In terms of zombie film output, Japan is perhaps the second largest in the world after the United States and above the United Kingdom. Yet only a relatively small number of these films have received academic attention. Having sourced and verified an exhaustive catalogue of over 160 feature-length Japanese zombie films produced between 1959 and 2018, and through recent field work in Japan, including personal interviews with local film, media and folklore scholars and professionals, this article constructs a clearer overview of this uncharted corpus. It presents some of the most predominant cultural specificities of Japanese zombie films and their compelling narrative and stylistic heterogeneity. Previous assertions confined these films to a ‘cult’ sub-genre, restricting the Japanese monsters they feature to mere western imports; however, this article demonstrates that Japanese cinematic zombies defy simple categorization and repeatedly challenge some of the key posits at the centre of zombie studies, especially regarding their defining characteristics. The Japanese folklore and literary tradition in particular provides a new lens through which these popular fictional ‘Others’ can be (re)examined, uncovering new significance and offering new insights into both Japanese and western cultures.
    Date: 2021–03–31
  42. By: Smith, Michael E. (Arizona State Universityh)
    Abstract: I explore the different ways historical and archaeological data can be deployed to contribute to research on urban sustainability science, emphasizing issues of argumentation and epistemology. I organize the discussion around three types of argument. The urban trajectory argument exploits the long time series of early cities and urban regions to examine change at a long time scale. The sample size argument views the role of early cities as adding to the known sample of settlements to increase understanding of urban similarities and differences. The laboratory argument uses data from past cities to explicitly test models derived from contemporary cities. Each argument is examined for three contrasting epistemological approaches: heuristic analogs, focused case studies, and quantitative studies. These approaches form a continuum leading from lesser to greater scientific rigor and from qualitative to quantitative frameworks. Much past-present argumentation requires inductive logic, also called reasoning by analogy. Sustainability scientists have confused this general form of argument with its weakest version, known as heuristic analogs. I stress ways to improve methods of argumentation, particularly by moving research along the continuum from weaker to stronger arguments.
    Date: 2022–08–05
  43. By: Breen, Casey; Osborne, Maria
    Abstract: The CenSoc datasets link individual-level 1940 Census records to Social Security death records using deterministic record linkage algorithms. In this technical report, we describe our record linkage methodology and assess the accuracy and representativeness of the CenSoc Version 2.1 matches.
    Date: 2022–06–11
  44. By: Levrero, Enrico Sergio (Roma Tre University)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to assess to what extent the Taylor rule can be considered an appropriate representation of the tendency of central banks to react to price inflation. After an overview of the origin and use of the Taylor rule, the paper stresses some difficulties in its implementation according to the modern theory of central banking and the limits of its interpretation by the New Consensus models. Finally, an alternative interpretation of this rule along Classical-Keynesian lines is advanced. In this context, it has to be interpreted, as it is in actual fact, as a flexible and non-mechanical benchmark for monetary policies which are seen to affect income distribution between wages and profits.
    Keywords: Monetary policy; Taylor rule; Cost-push inflation
    JEL: E11 E12 E52 E58
    Date: 2022–10–31
  45. By: Goecke, Oskar
    Abstract: Using historical capital market data for Germany (1950-2022) we analyze and compare (individual) defined contribution (IDC-) and collective defined contribution (CDC) pension plans. To this end we define simple asset liability management rules that govern a CDC pension plan and compare these to IDC-plans with the same asset allovation. Our main result is, that the CDC pension plans allow for a significant improvement of the risk return profile compared to individual pension plans. Hereby we consider different risk measures. This empirical study affirms the theoretical results based on stochastic CDC-models.
    JEL: G G2 G20
    Date: 2022
  46. By: Basellini, Ugofilippo; Camarda, Carlo Giovanni; Booth, Heather
    Abstract: The introduction of the Lee-Carter (LC) method marked a breakthrough in mortality forecasting, providing a simple yet powerful data-driven stochastic approach. The method has the merit of capturing the dynamics of mortality change by a single time index that is invariably linear. This 30th anniversary review of its 1992 publication examines the LC method and the large body of research that it has since spawned. We first describe the method and present a 30-year ex-post evaluation of the original LC forecast for U.S.~mortality. We then review the most prominent extensions of the LC method in relation to the limitations that they sought to address. With a focus on the efficacy of the various extensions, we review existing evaluations and comparisons. To conclude, we juxtapose the two main statistical approaches used, discuss further issues, and identify several potential avenues for future research.
    Date: 2022–08–21
  47. By: Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Luis A. Gil-Alana
    Abstract: This paper analyses the stochastic properties of UK nominal and real wages over the period 1750-2015 using fractional integration techniques. Both the original series and logged ones are analysed. The results generally suggest that nominal wages exhibit a higher degree of persistence, which reflects relatively long lags between inflation and wage adjustments. Endogenous break tests are also carried out and various structural breaks are identified in both series. On the whole the corresponding subsample estimates imply an increase over time in the degree of persistence of both series.
    Keywords: nominal and real wages, mean reversion, persistence, fractional integration, structural breaks
    JEL: C12 C13 C22 J30
    Date: 2022
  48. By: Radoslaw Stefanski; Alex Trew
    Abstract: The interest rate has been falling for centuries. A process of natural selection that leads to increasing societal patience is key to explaining this decline. Three observations support this mechanism: patience varies across individuals, is inter-generationally persistent, and is positively related to fertility. A calibrated dynamic, heterogenous-agent model of fertility permits us to isolate the quantitative contribution of this mechanism. Selection can explain most of the decline in the interest rate, a fact that is robust to a number of model extensions. Quantitative implications are consistent with other facts, such as the steady increase in the investment rate since 1300.
    Keywords: Interest rates; selection; fertility; patience; heterogenous agents
    JEL: E21 E43 J11 N30 O11
    Date: 2022–07
  49. By: Uri Dadush
    Abstract: This paper presents a data-driven examination of whether deglobalisation has happened and whether protectionism was the cause.
    Date: 2022–11

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