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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2022‒11‒28
forty-five papers chosen by |
| By: | Thilo N H Albers (Humboldt University of Berlin, Lund University [Lund]); Charlotte Bartels (DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, IZA - Institute for the Study of Labor, UCFS); Moritz Schularick (University of Bonn, Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR) |
| Abstract: | German history over the past 125 years has been turbulent. Marked by two world wars, revolutions and major regime changes, as well as a hyperinflation and three currency reforms, expropriations and territorial divisions, it provides unique insights into the role of country-specific shocks in shaping long-run wealth dynamics. This paper presents the first comprehensive study of wealth and its distribution in Germany since the 19th century. We combine tax and archival data, household surveys, historical national accounts, and rich lists to analyze the evolution of the German wealth distribution over the long run. We show that the top 1% wealth share has fallen by half, from close to 50% in 1895 to 27% today. Nearly all of this decline was the result of changes that occurred between 1914 and 1952. The interwar period and the wealth taxation in the aftermath of World War II stand out as the great equalizers in 20th century German history. After unification in 1990, two trends have left their mark on the German wealth distribution. Households at the top made substantial capital gains from rising business wealth while the middle-class had large capital gains in the housing market. The wealth share of the bottom 50% halved since 1990. Our findings speak to the importance of historical shocks to the distribution and valuations of existing wealth in explaining the evolution of the wealth distribution over the long run. |
| Keywords: | Wealth inequality,portfolio heterogeneity,saving,wealth taxation |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wilwps:halshs-03828863&r=his |
| By: | YAMAGUCHI Shotaro; INOUE Hiroyasu; NAKAJIMA Kentaro; OKAZAKI Tetsuji; SAITO Yukiko U.; Serguey BRAGUINSKY |
| Abstract: | During Japan's industrialization from the late 19th to the first half of the 20th century, the adoption of foreign technologies was increasingly complemented by domestic inventions, while the role played by college-educated scientists and engineers in inventions has not been examined. We match demographic, domicile and job information of Imperial University and Technical College science & engineering (S&E) graduates from the onset of Japanese higher S&E education with patent application records in the Japanese Patent Office during the period 1885-1940 to identify who were granted patents, when and where they invented, and how such patterns changed over time. We find that the presence of S&E graduates among inventors increased over time. The likelihood of becoming inventors significantly varied across schools and divisions. Also, Imperial University graduates tended to produce inventions of higher quality, and their inventions were more concentrated in regions where economic activities were intense. |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:22104&r=his |
| By: | Sebastián Fleitas; Matthew S. Jaremski; Steven Sprick Schuster |
| Abstract: | Building and Loan Associations (B&Ls) financed over half of new houses constructed in the U.S. during the 1920s but they lost their predominance within the following decades as they were pushed to convert into Savings and Loans (S&Ls). This study examines whether the U.S. government-insured Postal Savings System attracted funds away from B&Ls precisely when they needed them the most in the Great Depression. Annual town- and county-level data from 1920 through 1935 for 3 states show that the sudden rise in local postal savings was associated with local downturns in B&Ls. Using a panel vector autoregression, we find that postal savings significantly reduced the amount of money in B&Ls, yet B&Ls had no significant effect on postal savings banks. Alternatively, postal savings had no significant effect on commercial banks. The results suggest that this competitive dynamic prevented B&Ls from rebounding in the mid-1930s and helped contribute to Great Depression’s local real estate lending decline. |
| JEL: | G21 H42 N22 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30609&r=his |
| By: | Jutta Bolt; Leigh Gardner; Jennifer Kohler; Jack Paine; James A. Robinson |
| Abstract: | Conventional wisdom proposes deep historical roots for authoritarianism in Africa: either colonial “decentralized despotism” or enduring structural features. We present a new theoretical perspective. Africans sought autonomous local communities, which constrained precolonial rulers. Colonizers largely left constrained institutions in place given budget limitations. Innovation, where it occurred, typically scaled up councils rather than invented despotic chiefs. To test these implications, we compiled two original datasets that measure precolonial institutions and British colonial administrations around 1950 in 463 local government units. Although colonial institutions were authoritarian at the national level, most Native Authorities were constrained by some type of council and many local institutions lacked a singular ruler entirely. The form of Native Authority institutions and the composition of councils are strongly correlated with precolonial institutional forms. The persistence of institutional constraints at the local level suggests alternative channels through which colonial rule fostered postcolonial authoritarian regimes. |
| JEL: | D7 H1 P51 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30582&r=his |
| By: | Matthew S. Jaremski |
| Abstract: | The massive rise in U.S. stockholding during the early twentieth century resulted in the deepening of securities markets, the spread of investment banks, and the expansion of publicly held corporations. This paper makes use of a unique panel database of South Dakota bank stockholders from 1910-1934 to study bank stockholder growth as well as its effect on bank composition and risk. Overall, the average number of stockholders in a bank rose from 8 to 21 over the period with much of the rise occurring after 1924, but many banks remained highly concentrated. The new stockholders are associated with a subsequent increase in a bank’s proportion of loans-to-assets, but no direct effect on bank closure outside of this balance sheet effect. The data thus illustrate the start of a movement towards more diffuse bank stockholding and its potential consequences for the industry. |
| JEL: | G21 G3 N22 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30641&r=his |
| By: | Milanovic, Branko |
| Abstract: | The paper reestimates global inequality between 1820 and 1980, reappraises the results up to 2013, and presents new inequality estimates for 2018. It shows that historically, global inequality has followed three eras: the first, from 1820 until 1950, characterized by rising between country income differences and increasing within-country inequalities; the second, from 1950 to the last decade of the 20th century, with very high global and between-country inequality; and the current one of decreasing inequality thanks to the rise of Asian incomes, and especially so Chinese. The present era has seen the emergence of the global “median” class, reduced population-weighted gaps between nations, and the greatest reshuffling in income positions between the West and China since the Industrial Revolution. Whether global inequality will continue on its downward trend depends now much more on changes in India and large African countries than on China. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper) |
| Date: | 2022–11–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:yg2h9&r=his |
| By: | Kung, James Kai-sing; Özak, Ömer (Southern Methodist University); Putterman, Louis; Shi, Shuang |
| Abstract: | We propose and test empirically a theory describing the endogenous formation and persistence of mega-states, using China as an example. We suggest that the relative timing of the emergence of agricultural societies, and their distance from each other, set off a race between their autochthonous state-building projects, which determines their extent and persistence. Using a novel dataset describing the historical presence of Chinese states, prehistoric development, the diffusion of agriculture, and migratory distance across 1-degree x 1-degree grid cells in eastern Asia, we find that cells that adopted agriculture earlier and were close to Erlitou -- the earliest political center in eastern Asia -- remained under Chinese control for longer and continue to be a part of China today. By contrast, cells that adopted agriculture early and were located further from Erlitou developed into independent states, as agriculture provided the fertile ground for state-formation, while isolation provided time for them to develop and confront the expanding Chinese empire. Our study sheds important light on why eastern Asia kept reproducing a mega-state in the area that became China and on the determinants of its borders with other states. |
| Date: | 2022–06–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:ecoevo:z4krh&r=his |
| By: | Dora Costa |
| Abstract: | Much of the increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity has been in developing countries with a history of famines and malnutrition. Prior research has pointed to the association between overweight and famine exposure during developmental ages as one of several explanations and has hypothesized that ancestral famine exposure may play a role. Data limitations have prevented researchers from investigating the multigenerational effects of famine shocks on descendant overweight. This paper examines overweight among adult grandsons of grandfathers exposed to starvation during developmental ages. I study grandsons born to grandfathers who served in the Union Army during the US Civil War (1861-5) where some grandfathers experienced severe net malnutrition because they were POWs during times of extreme hardship. I find that male-line but not female-line grandsons of grandfathers who experienced a severe captivity during their growing years faced a 21% increase in mean overweight and a 2% increase in mean BMI compared to grandsons of non-POWs. This increase was mediated by fathers’ and to a lesser extent own in-utero conditions, as proxied by season of birth, suggesting a dynamic process of inheritance. Male-line grandsons descended from grandfathers who experienced a harsh captivity faced a 22-28% greater risk of dying every year after age 45 relative to grandsons descended from non-POWs, with overweight accounting for 9-14% of the excess risk. |
| JEL: | I10 I15 N30 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30599&r=his |
| By: | Rui Esteves; Kris James Mitchener; Peter Nencka; Melissa A. Thomasson |
| Abstract: | Using newly digitized U.S. city-level data on hospitals, we explore how pandemics alter preferences for healthcare. We find that cities with higher levels of mortality during the Great Influenza of 1918-1919 subsequently expanded hospital capacity by more than cities experiencing less influenza mortality: cities in the top half of the mortality distribution increased their count of hospitals by 8-10 percent in the years after the pandemic. This effect persisted to 1960 and was driven by increases in non-governmental hospitals. Growth responded most in richer cities, exacerbating existing inequalities in access to healthcare. We do not find evidence that government-run hospitals or other types of city-level spending related to healthcare responded to pandemic intensity, suggesting that large health shocks do not necessarily lead to increased public provision of health services. |
| JEL: | I11 I14 J10 N32 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30643&r=his |
| By: | Lambert, Thomas |
| Abstract: | When it comes to the British Industrial Revolution of the 18th Century, much of the mainstream economics literature has tended to focus on how property rights, limitations on the crown or government, and changes in agricultural and manufacturing techniques have caused a great transformation in the nation’s economic formation. Marxian and other heterodox economics views acknowledge these developments but also emphasize the enclosure movement and the development of a class of people that becomes an exploited proletariat. Both sets of views acknowledge the role of the British government in facilitating the Industrial Revolution, but in doing a review for this paper, there is only a small amount of literature on how government investment and spending and the housing of workers may have helped to spur on or exist simultaneously with the revolution. This is especially true within heterodox schools of thought, and this paper aims to add to the heterodox economics literature by discussing how government investment and spending, and investment in housing, dramatically assist with surplus absorption during the Industrial Revolution, which in turn helps the British economy to achieve greater heights. Datasets that have been developed over the last 15 years or so can be used to illustrate this. Finally, by using the concept of the Baran Ratio, it can be shown that a significant portion of the nation’s economic surplus is absorbed by government spending and investment and housing investment, and much of this in turn would have helped private business investment and spending in absorbing as much of the surplus as possible. |
| Keywords: | Baran Ratio, government investment and spending, housing, Industrial Revolution, heterodox economics |
| JEL: | B50 B52 N13 N43 |
| Date: | 2022–10–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:115196&r=his |
| By: | Escamilla Guerrero, David; Lepistö, Miko; Minns, Chris |
| Abstract: | This paper uses newly digitized border crossing records from the early 20th century to study the destination choice of female and male French Canadian migrants to the United States. Immigrant sorting across destinations was strikingly different between women and men. Absolute returns to skill dominate in explaining sorting among men, while job search costs and access to ethnic networks were more important for single women. Married women were typically tied to a spouse whose labour market opportunities determined the joint destination, and were much less responsive to destination characteristics as a result. |
| Keywords: | migration; sorting; gender; Canada; United States |
| JEL: | J61 N31 N32 |
| Date: | 2022–11–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:117260&r=his |
| By: | Philipp Koch; Viktor Stojkoski; C\'esar A. Hidalgo |
| Abstract: | Did migrants help make Paris a center for the arts and Vienna a beacon of classical music? Or was the rise of these knowledge agglomerations a sole consequence of local actors? Here, we use data on the biographies of more than 22,000 famous historical individuals born between the years 1000 and 2000 to estimate the contribution of famous immigrants, emigrants, and locals to the knowledge specializations of European regions. We find that the probability that a region develops a specialization in a new activity (physics, philosophy, painting, music, etc.) grows with the presence of immigrants with knowledge on that activity and of immigrants specialized in related activities. We also find that the probability that a region loses one of its existing areas of specialization decreases with the presence of immigrants specialized in that activity and in related activities. In contrast, we do not find robust evidence that locals with related knowledge play a statistically significant role in a region entering or exiting a new specialization. These findings advance our understanding of the role of migration in the historical formation of knowledge agglomerations. |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2210.15914&r=his |
| By: | Thomas Piketty (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Li Yang (DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we aim to better understand the evolution and institutional roots of Hong Kong's growing economic inequality and political cleavages. The main findings of this paper are twofold. First, by combining multiple sources of data (household surveys, fiscal data, wealth rankings, national accounts) and innovative methodologies, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of the evolution of wage inequality, the capital share, as well as the concentration of top wealth in Hong Kong. Our evidence suggests a very large rise in income and wealth inequality in Hong Kong over the last four decades. Second, based on the latest opinion poll data, we provide evidence suggesting that business elites, who carry disproportionate weight in Hong Kong's Legislative Council, are more likely to vote for pro-establishment camp to ensure that policies are passed that protect their political and economic interests. We argue that the unique alliance of government and business elites in a partial democratic political system is the institutional root of Hong Kong's rising inequality and political cleavages. |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03828873&r=his |
| By: | Pablo Delgado (Department of Applied Economics, University of Zaragoza (Spain) and Agri-Food Institute of Aragon (IA2)); Adrían Espinosa-Gracia (Department of Economic Analysis, University of Zaragoza) |
| Abstract: | Since the second half of the twentieth Century, two phenomena have characterized western societies from a nutritional perspective. On the one hand, the culmination of the modern nutritional transition. On the other hand, high-income countries have presented two kinds of food consumption models. The first model is featured by an increasing mass agro-industrial food intake, while the second one consisted of a decrease in caloric intakes jointly with rising consumption of transformed and differentiated products. Focusing on Spain as our case study, the objective of this paper is to unveil to what extent the diffusion of these two consumption patterns have affected inequalities by levels of income and by regions. |
| Keywords: | nutritional transition, inequality, meat consumption, food consumption models. |
| JEL: | N34 N54 O13 E21 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zar:wpaper:dt2022-05&r=his |
| By: | Jean-Luc Gaffard (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | L'inflation qui avait quasiment disparue depuis quarante ans resurgit. La première réaction est de considérer ce phénomène comme transitoire comme si elle était le signe d'une rupture momentanée d'un équilibre de long terme. Cependant, elle se produit en un moment où des crises successives, financière, sanitaire, écologique deviennent le moteur de changements structurels importants et pourrait, de ce fait, être durable si les déséquilibres observés ne sont pas contenus. La comparaison avec les événements des années 1970, tant sur le plan des faits que sur celui de leur interprétation analytique, peut éclairer sur le sens de la question relative au caractère durable ou transitoire de l'inflation. |
| Keywords: | Anticipations,changement structurel,inflation,politique économique |
| Date: | 2022–02–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03588350&r=his |
| By: | Antoine Bozio (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales, IPP - Institut des politiques publiques); Bertrand Garbinti (CREST-THEMA - CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CY - CY Cergy Paris Université, ENSAE - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse Economique - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse Economique); Jonathan Goupille-Lebret (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS LSH - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ENS Lyon, Université de Lyon, Université de Lyon (Université de Lyon)); Malka Guillot (HEC Liège); Thomas Piketty (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales) |
| Abstract: | We construct series of post-tax income for France over the 1900-2018 period and compare them with U.S. series. We quantify the extent of redistribution and estimate the impact of redistribution vs pretax inequality on post-tax inequality. We obtain three major findings. First, redistribution has increased in both countries to reach similar levels today. Second, the long-run decline in post-tax inequality in France is due mostly to the fall in pretax inequality. Third, the relative lower post-tax inequality in France is entirely explained by differences in pretax inequality. This suggests that more attention should be paid to policies affecting pretax inequality. |
| Keywords: | inequality,redistribution,predistribution,taxes,transfers |
| Date: | 2022–10–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03832233&r=his |
| By: | Bezabih, Adane.K |
| Abstract: | As a result of internal and external factors, the imperial regime issued a labour relations decree, Decree No.49/1962 and recognized labour unions and employers' associations for the first time in the history of Ethiopian labour movement on 5 September 1962. This in turn resulted in the birth of the Confederation of Ethiopian Labour Union (CELU) on 9 April 1963 and the Ethiopian Employers' Federation (EEF) on 11 April 1964. In a nut shell, the years from 1962 to1974 can be taken as the formative years in the history of the Ethiopian labour movement. Therefore, this study tries to investigate the formative period of the Ethiopian labour movement in which workers sought to establish an independent labour union and undertaken stiff struggle to that end. As a qualitative research, the study used document analysis and in-depth interview to collect data. It also used thematic analysis to analyze the collected data. The findings of the study showed that the strong subordination of CELU to the state and the enduring internal power struggle among its leaders contributed a lot to the failure of the Ethiopian labour movement to establish an independent national confederation and to be an agent for the 1974 Ethiopian revolution. |
| Keywords: | Formative, Tripartite, Confederation, Labour movement, Strike |
| JEL: | J51 J52 |
| Date: | 2022–11–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:115251&r=his |
| By: | Stefania Albanesi (University of Pittsburgh); Maria Jose Prados (University of Southern California) |
| Abstract: | The entry of married women into the labor force and the rise in women's relative wages are amongst the most notable economic developments of the twentieth century. The growth in these indicators was particularly pronounced in the 1970s and 1980s, but it stalled since the early 1990s, especially for college graduates. In this paper, we argue that the discontinued growth in female labor supply and wages since the 1990s is a consequence of growing inequality. Our hypothesis is that the growth in top incomes for men generated a negative income effect on the labor supply of their spouses, which reduced their participation and wages. We show that the slowdown in participation and wage growth was concentrated among women married to highly educated and high income husbands, whose earnings grew dramatically over this period. We then develop a model of household labor supply with returns to experience that qualitatively reproduces this effect. A calibrated version of the model can account for a large fraction of the decline relative to trend in married women’s participation in 1995-2005 particularly for college women. The model can also account for the rise in the gender wage gap for college graduates relative to trend in the same period. |
| Keywords: | married women, skill premium |
| JEL: | E24 J20 J30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2022-037&r=his |
| By: | Jason Fletcher; Hans G. Schwarz; Michal Engelman; Norman Johnson; Jahn Hakes; Alberto Palloni |
| Abstract: | A rich literature shows that early life conditions shape later life outcomes, including health and migration events. However, analyses of geographic disparities in mortality outcomes focus almost exclusively on contemporaneously measured geographic place (e.g., state of residence at death), thereby potentially conflating the role of early life conditions, migration patterns, and effects of destinations. We use the newly available Mortality Disparities in American Communities (MDAC) dataset, which links respondents in the 2008 ACS to official death records and estimate consequential differences by method of aggregation; the mean absolute deviation of the difference in life expectancy at age 50 measured by state of birth versus state of residence is 0.58 (0.50) years for men and 0.40 (0.29) years for women. These differences are also spatially clustered, and we show that regional inequality in life expectancy is higher based on life expectancies by state of birth, implying that interstate migration mitigates baseline geographical inequality in mortality outcomes. Finally, we assess how state-specific features of in-migration, out-migration, and non-migration together shape measures of mortality disparities by state (of residence), further demonstrating the difficulty of clearly interpreting these widely used measures. |
| JEL: | I14 J0 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30572&r=his |
| By: | Naef, Alain |
| Abstract: | Most countries in the world use foreign exchange intervention, but measuring the success of the policy is difficult. By using a narrative approach, I identify interventions when the central bank manages to reverse the exchange rate based on pure luck. I separate them from interventions when the central bank actually impacted the exchange rate. Because intervention records are daily aggregates, an intervention might appear to have changed the direction of the exchange rate, when it is more likely to have been caused by market news. This analysis allows to have a better understanding of how successful central bank operations really are. I use new daily data on Bank of England interventions in the 1980s and 1990s. Some studies find that interventions work in up to 80% of cases. Yet, by accounting for intraday market moving news, I find in adverse conditions, the Bank of England managed to influence the exchange rate only in 8% of cases. I use natural language processing to confirm the validity of the narrative approach. Using lasso and a VAR analysis, I investigate what makes the Bank of England intervene. I find that only movement on the Deutschmark and not US dollar exchange rate made the Bank intervene. Also, I find that interest rate hikes were mostly a tool for currency management and accompanied by large reserve sales. |
| Date: | 2022–10–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:u59gc&r=his |
| By: | Juan David Torres |
| Abstract: | How does the enforcement of property rights affects land accumulation by landed elites? Using a unique classification of the local agricultural workforce and a differencein- difference framework I show how landed elites, relative to landless peasants, benefited from Colombian land reform during the late 1930s through the appropriation of large land allocations. This is explained by a feature of the reform: lower enforcement of property rights, which reduced the costs of further accumulation. I provide evidence on the elite investments in de facto political power that drive this empowerment: competition for resources in local elections and collective action embodied in landowner associations. This, in a context of tension between good-intended progressive policies and a general process of collective action pushed forward by landowners toward the defense of property, in which commitments for targeted democratization of land were hardly accomplished. My findings shed light on a possible equilibrium between democracy and high inequality in which economic elites exploit institutional features empowering themselves to preserve certainty regarding their own property rights. |
| Keywords: | Land reform, property rights, public land allocations, landed elites, collective action |
| JEL: | P48 N56 D72 |
| Date: | 2022–10–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:020514&r=his |
| By: | POP, NAPOLEON (National Institute for Economic Research - Romanian Academy); IOAN-FRANC, VALERIU (National Institute for Economic Research - Romanian Academy) |
| Abstract: | The academic world says that the divorce between economists and politicians became visible during the financial crisis that began in 2008, when the economists were criticised for failing to preview the crisis, on the one hand, and, on the other hand, for the slowness in accompanying the solutions to remedy the crisis which should have been suggested by the politicians in an emergency situation, of financial collapse. The divorce itself has been lasting for a long time with the relationship deteriorating for many other reasons. In the background there is (1) an elite of Nobel prize winning economists with permanent training and inclination towards research and results worthy of consideration, and (2) a political class in a quasi-constant professional decline. It is a worrying fact, also publicly acknowledged. The 21st century, which marks the greatest technological advance of the fourth industrial revolution, started with avatars coming seemingly from nowhere. Yet, this century which began with so much hope, brings us in the face of yet another break between science and practice. The phenomenon we refer to in the current study is just a small part of what it should have been the collaboration between politicians and science in general, but the specifics of the divorce we approach in this essay is the fact that it deepens. |
| Keywords: | general economics, information and uncertainty, economic policies, politics and sociological system, national government policies, public policy |
| JEL: | A1 A11 B20 B52 H5 J18 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ror:wpince:221116&r=his |
| By: | Pascal Lièvre (CleRMa - Clermont Recherche Management - ESC Clermont-Ferrand - École Supérieure de Commerce (ESC) - Clermont-Ferrand - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Eléonore Mérour (CleRMa - Clermont Recherche Management - ESC Clermont-Ferrand - École Supérieure de Commerce (ESC) - Clermont-Ferrand - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Julie Morin (Department of Geography, University of Cambridge - CAM - University of Cambridge [UK]); Luisa Macedo Franco (IGP - Instituto Geofísico del Perú); Domingo Ramos Palomino (Observatorio Vulcanológico del INGEMMET (Dirección de Geología Ambiental y Riesgo Geológico) [Arequipa] - Observatorio Vulcanológico del INGEMMET (Dirección de Geología Ambiental y Riesgo Geológico)); Marco Rivera Porras (IGP - Instituto Geofísico del Perú); Pablo Masías Alvarez (Observatorio Vulcanológico del INGEMMET (Dirección de Geología Ambiental y Riesgo Geológico) [Arequipa] - Observatorio Vulcanológico del INGEMMET (Dirección de Geología Ambiental y Riesgo Geológico)); Benjamin van Wyk de Vries (LMV - Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement et la société - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne - OPGC - Observatoire de Physique du Globe de Clermont-Ferrand - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new way of understanding the debate between vulnerability and resilience. We mobilize on the theoretical level the notion of "paradigm" in the sense of Kuhn and, on the methodological level, Foucault's notion of "apparatus" to understand volcanic risk management practices. Through an interdisciplinary approach, combining management, geography and Earth sciences, we study the evolution of volcanic risk management practice in Arequipa (Peru) from the 1990s to the present. To do this, we look at the history of volcanic risk management in Arequipa, using a qualitative interview methodology based on six in-depth centered interviews from the main actors of this history, supported by a 2-month ethnography which allowed access to large institutional documentation (reports, studies, archives, maps, pictures...). Management practices in Arequipa appear to be centered on the paradigm of vulnerability since the 1990s. Some operations since 2015 named as resilient emerge but they are still inscribed in the vulnerability paradigm. The results show the relevance of the theoretical and methodological framework chosen for Arequipa but also the possibility of using it in a more general way. |
| Abstract: | Cet article propose une nouvelle manière de comprendre le débat entre vulnérabilité et résilience. Nous mobilisons sur le plan théorique la notion de paradigme au sens de Kuhn et, sur le plan méthodologique, la notion de dispositif de Foucault pour comprendre les pratiques de gestion des risques volcaniques. À travers une approche interdisciplinaire, combinant la gestion, la géographie et les sciences de la Terre, nous étudions l'évolution des pratiques de gestion du risque volcanique à Arequipa (Pérou) des années 1990 à aujourd'hui. Pour ce faire, nous nous intéressons à l'histoire de la gestion du risque volcanique à Arequipa, en utilisant une méthodologie d'entretiens qualitatifs basée sur six entretiens approfondis centrés sur les principaux acteurs de cette histoire, soutenus par une ethnographie de 2 mois qui a permis d'accéder à une importante documentation institutionnelle (rapports, études, archives, cartes, photos...). Les pratiques de gestion à Arequipa semblent centrées sur le paradigme de la vulnérabilité depuis les années 1990. Certaines opérations depuis 2015 nommées comme résilientes émergent mais elles sont toujours inscrites dans le paradigme de la vulnérabilité. Les résultats montrent la pertinence du cadre théorique et méthodologique choisi pour Arequipa mais aussi la possibilité de l'utiliser de manière plus générale. |
| Date: | 2022–09–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03816624&r=his |
| By: | Smith, Michael E. (Arizona State Universityh) |
| Abstract: | Archaeology’s principal contribution to knowledge is its ability to track human actions and social conditions over long periods of time. I describe an approach to operationalizing this insight for the rise and fall of cities and other settlement over time. Cities that survive and thrive are considered successful, and urban success can be measured along three dimensions: persistence, population, and prosperity. Successful cities were those whose leaders, residents, and institutions found ways to adapt to a range of shocks and conditions, including the environment, local institutions, and regional political and economic forces. Urban success is therefore due to processes of urban adaptation that operated over long periods of time. I outline a conceptual and methodological approach to urban success, and position the concept with respect to notions of adaptation and time scales in sustainability science and the social and historical sciences more broadly. |
| Date: | 2022–10–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:y2vg7&r=his |
| By: | Lamla, Michael; Vinogradov, Dmitri |
| JEL: | E52 E70 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc22:264097&r=his |
| By: | Postel, Hannah M. (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a novel pre-processing technique to improve record linkage for historical Chinese populations. Current matching approaches are relatively ineffective due to Chinese-specific naming conventions and enumeration errors. This paper develops a three-step process that both triples the match rate over baseline and improves match accuracy. The procedures developed in this paper can be applied in part or in full to other sources of historical data, and/or modified for use with other character-based languages such as Japanese. More broadly, this approach suggests the promise of language-specific linkage procedures to boost match rates for ethnic minority groups. |
| Date: | 2022–11–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:rckjp&r=his |
| By: | Quentin Lippmann; Khushboo Surana |
| Abstract: | We assemble a unique data set of more than a million matrimonial ads to study the evolution of partner preferences. Using ads published in major news outlets from Canada, France and India from 1950 to 1995, we show that stated preferences for economic aspects of an ideal partner have fallen sharply in favour of personality traits in the two Western countries. This shift is particularly apparent after the late 1960s and more marked for women than for men. By contrast, in India, economic criteria have remained the most prevalent over time. We complement these results using data from 41 regional newspapers operating in various parts of the US and Canada in 1995. Across all the regions, we find that personality traits are consistently ranked among the most prevalent criteria, while economic aspects are the least mentioned. We provide evidence that these results are unlikely to be driven by the composition effects over time, choice of newspaper outlets, role of parents or changing social norms. We argue that these evolution reflect a hierarchy of partner preferences, whereby the demand for non-material needs rests on the satisfaction of material needs such as economic ones. |
| Keywords: | family, marriage, preferences |
| JEL: | D72 J16 J71 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:yorken:22/08&r=his |
| By: | Ogawa, Shogo |
| Abstract: | In this study, we present a survey of (non-Walrasian) disequilibrium economics in which the gap between expressed demand and supply and between desired and realized transaction are allowed. We see a brief history of the disequilibrium theory and characteristics of it such as temoprary equilibria with quantity adjustment and the discontinuity of dynamics due to regime switching. We redefine the disequilibrium economics by comparing with equilibrium economics, and find that the core of it is inconsistency of transaction that is emphasized as ``dual-decision'' by Robert Clower. |
| Keywords: | Non-Walrasian; Disequilibrium economics; Survey; Macroeconomics; Economic Theory |
| JEL: | B00 C0 D5 E12 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:115011&r=his |
| By: | Delia Sih Chien Macaluso; Michael McMahon |
| Abstract: | The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) celebrated 25 years of existence in June 2022. This period is marked by a global trend toward greater transparency and more communication in central banks. While some of these changes took place before the Bank of England was given independent operational control of monetary policy, the Bank has played a leading role in many of these trends. This short paper takes a look back the communication of the Bank of Eng¬land, and considers the impact of current trends going forward. |
| Date: | 2022–10–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:987&r=his |
| By: | Hernán Rincón-Castro; María Angélica Moreno-Barrera |
| Abstract: | Los objetivos del estudio son, primero, construir series homogéneas y consistentes del ahorro y la inversión macroeconómicos y sus balances para la economía y por sectores institucionales de Colombia para el período 1975-2021. Segundo, describir el contexto económico en que se observaron, narrar y plantear posibles razones de su comportamiento y reportar y explicar quienes ahorraron y quienes desahorraron y el por qué. Las estadísticas indican que entre 1975 y 1998 la economía colombiana experimentó déficit de ahorro seguidos de superávit, lo que le permitió mantener una dinámica macroeconómica sostenible, en el sentido de que los años con excesos de inversión fueron compensados seguidamente por años con excesos de ahorro. Entre 1999 y 2003 la economía experimentó un relativo equilibrio. Por el contrario, desde 2004 soporta un desbalance continuo y creciente que se agravó en 2021. Durante el periodo de estudio los hogares y las sociedades financieras fueron generalmente los ahorradores, mientras que el gobierno fue ahorrador hasta 1994 y a partir de ese año desahorrador permanente. Las sociedades no financierasfueron desahorradoras, excepto en 1999 y 2021. Los resultados generales esconden dinámicassectoriales que han sido poco analizadas y este estudio da un paso adelante para revelarlas. **** ABSTRACT: The objectives of the study are, first, to build homogeneous and consistent series of macroeconomic savings and investment and their balances for the economy and institutional sectors of Colombia for the period 1975-2021. Second, describe the economic context in which they were observed, narrate, and present possible reasons for their behavior, and report and explain who saved and who dissaved and why. Statistics indicate that between 1975 and 1998 the Colombian economy experienced savings deficits followed by surpluses, which allowed it to maintain a sustainable macroeconomic dynamic, in the sense that years with excess investment were subsequently offset by years with excess savings. Between 1999 and 2003, the economy experienced a relative macroeconomic balance. However, since 2004 it has supported a continuous and growing imbalance, which worsened in 2021. During the study period, households and financial corporations were generally the savers, while the government was the saver until 1994 and from that year on, permanently dissaving. Non-financial corporations were dissaving, except in 1999 and 2021. The general results hide sectoral dynamics that have been little analyzed, and this study goes a step further to reveal them. |
| Keywords: | Ahorro, inversión, desbalances macroeconómicos, hogares, gobierno y sociedades, Savings, investment, macroeconomic imbalances, households, government, financial corporations, and non-financial corporations |
| JEL: | C82 E21 E22 E62 E66 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1215&r=his |
| By: | Fabian Eckert; Ka-leung Lam; Atif R. Mian; Karsten Müller; Rafael Schwalb; Amir Sufi |
| Abstract: | The County Business Pattern (“CBP”) files contain employment and establishment counts for detailed industry codes covering all counties in the United States. The contribution of this project is to digitize, clean, and prepare the CBP files from 1946-1974. We also apply the methods developed in Eckert, Fort, Schott, and Yang (2020a) to impute missing employment observations in the raw data. We provide three digital data products for public use: (1) the cleaned CBP files for each year, (2) a consolidated panel data set of employment and establishment counts for about 20 industries and all US counties, (3) estimates for suppressed employment counts for each year. |
| JEL: | E0 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30578&r=his |
| By: | Micael Castanheira (Université Libre de Bruxelles); Benoit S Y Crutzen (Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | e develop a model of elections in which parties choose their ideological position and the ideology of their candidates. Tighter candidate selection reduces policy uncertainty for voters. We show that weak institutional constraints, as in a Presidential regime, induce parties to allow their candidates to be ideologically heterogeneous. Tighter constraints or reduced voter polarization induces them to choose an ideologically homogeneous set of candidates. This highlights a multiplier effect of intraparty candidate selection: the parties’ best responses amplify institutional and socio-economic changes. These effects rationalize why mainstream parties look so different across the two sides of the Atlantic. Around the middle of the nineteenth century, when facing similar organizational challenges, parties made opposite choices that still apply to this day: the introduction of direct primaries in the US, which decentralized candidate selection, versus the tightening and centralization of selection in Victorian England. |
| Keywords: | parties as brands, political regime, intraparty candidate selection, ideology, polarization |
| Date: | 2022–11–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20220074&r=his |
| By: | Bergeron-Boucher, Marie-Pier; Vázquez-Castillo, Paola; Missov, Trifon |
| Abstract: | Recent studies have shown that there are some advantages in forecasting mortality with other indicators than death rates. In particular, the age-at-death distribution provides readily available information on central longevity measures: mean, median and mode, as well as information on lifespan variation. The modal age at death has been increasing linearly since the second half of the 20th century, providing a strong basis to extrapolate past trends. We develop a model to forecast the age-at-death distribution that directly forecasts the modal age at death and lifespan variation while accounting for dependence between ages. We forecast mortality at age 40 and above in six Western European countries. The introduced model increases forecast accuracy compared with other forecasting models and provides consistent trends in life expectancy and lifespan variation at age 40 over time. |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5zr2k&r=his |
| By: | David K Levine |
| Date: | 2022–11–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cla:levarc:11694000000000141&r=his |
| By: | Vincent Carret (Duke University [Durham], TRIANGLE - Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The argument of this paper is that Jacques Rueff and F.A. Hayek can be made to have a constructive dialogue that informs our understanding of how both authors approached such issues as the role of government in society and the meaning of spontaneous order. Through an analysis of their uses of the price mechanism as an ordering principle, and an examination of how they both moved towards a legal-institutional approach to understand the world, the common elements in their systems are brought out and fitted in a longer liberal tradition concerned not only with the meaning of competition, but with the conditions fostering the emergence of social order in the midst of individual chaos. Rueff's involvement in the construction of the European Coal and Steel Community gives an interesting application of their systems to a concrete experiment in creating a rational economic order in postwar Europe. The examination of the case law of the Court of Justice of the Community demonstrates how much the principle of competition was subordinate to a political ideal of peace relying on limiting governments to prevent wars, a mechanism at the center of both Hayek's and Rueff's systems. |
| Keywords: | Hayek,Rueff,European Coal and Steel Community,competition law,limited government |
| Date: | 2022–10–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03824688&r=his |
| By: | Hedefalk, Finn; van Dijk, Ingrid K; Dribe, Martin |
| Abstract: | The socioeconomic health gradient has widened since the mid-21st century, but the role of childhood neighborhoods remains underexplored. Most neighborhood studies on health are cross-sectional, and longitudinal research is lacking. We analyze how socioeconomic neighborhood conditions in childhood influence cause-specific deaths in adulthood. We use uniquely detailed geocoded longitudinal microdata for the Swedish town of Landskrona, 1939-1967, linked to Swedish national registers, 1968-2015. We measure neighborhood SES by social class and use dynamic sizes of individual neighborhoods. Cox proportional hazards models are employed to estimate the impact of neighbor’s social class in childhood (ages 1-17) on mortality in ages 40-69. We control for class origin, class in adulthood, schools, and physical neighborhood characteristics. The class of the nearby, same-age, childhood neighbors had a lasting effect on male all-cause and preventable, but not non-preventable, mortality. Men who grew up with having 10% more children from white-collar families as close-proximity neighbors had an 8% lower mortality risk due to preventable causes of death in adulthood. The mortality for women was not affected by their childhood neighbors, although both a lower adult class and class origin increased their mortality. Because preventable causes of death are linked to lifestyle factors, this study suggests that childhood neighborhood peers had a strong and lasting influence on the health behavior of men growing up before the health gradient was fully established. Hence, our applied life-course perspective on childhood neighborhoods is crucial to better understand the mortality differentials by SES. |
| Date: | 2022–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ynpb3&r=his |
| By: | Adil Ahmad Mughal (University of Management & Technology (UMT), Lahore) |
| Date: | 2022–09–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03787520&r=his |
| By: | Jennifer L. Castle; David F. Hendry; Andrew B. Martinez |
| Abstract: | We model UK price and wage inflation, productivity and unemployment over a century and a half of data, selecting dynamics, relevant variables, non-linearities and location and trend shifts us¬ing indicator saturation estimation. The four congruent econometric equations highlight complex interacting empirical relations. The production function reveals a major role for energy inputs ad-ditional to capital and labour, and although the price inflation equation shows a small direct impact of energy prices, the substantial rise in oil and gas prices seen by mid-2022 contribute half of the increase in price inflation. We find empirical evidence for non-linear adjustments of real wages to inflation: a wage-price spiral kicks in when inflation exceeds about 6–8% p.a. We also find an addi-tional non-linear reaction to unemployment, consistent with involuntary unemployment. A reduction in energy availability simultaneously reduces output and exacerbates inflation. |
| Date: | 2022–09–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:983&r=his |
| By: | Bichler, Shimshon; Nitzan, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | Marxists love to hate the theory of capital as power, or CasP for short. And they have two good reasons. First, CasP criticizes the logical and empirical validity of the labour theory of value on which Marxism rests. And second, it offers the young at heart a radical, non-Marxist alternative with which to research, understand and contest capitalism. With these reasons in mind, it is only understandable that most Marxists prefer to keep Pandora's box closed, and few challenge CasP directly. Sometimes, though, the wall of silence breaks, typically by a lone Marxist who lashes at the 'idealist' renegades of forward-looking capitalized power and reiterates the good old 'material reality' of backward-looking labour time. Since these occasional critics are often confident in their dogma and rarely bother to understand the CasP research they criticize (let alone the broader body of CasP literature), their critiques scarcely merit a response. But occasionally, they accuse us of empirical wrongdoing - and these charges do call for a reply. Such accusations are levelled in a recent paper by Nicolas D. Villarreal (2022), titled 'Capital, Capitalization, and Capitalists: A Critique of Capital as Power Theory'. In his article, Villarreal claims that our empirical analysis of the relation between business power and industrial sabotage in the United States is unpersuasive, to put it politely. He argues that we cherry-pick specific data definitions and smoothing windows to 'achieve the desired results'; that these 'results are driven by statistical aberrations'; and that his own choice of variables pretty much invalidates our conclusions. Unfortunately, Mr. Villarreal's empirical counter-analysis leaves much to be desired. His 'reproduction/refutation' of our work is not only poorly documented, but also uses incorrect variables, including ones that differ from those labelled in his own figures (gross instead of net income, domestic instead of national variables, national categories mixed with domestic ones, etc.). So instead of trying to reverse-engineer his results, here is our own easy-to-follow, step-by-step reply to his complaints. Hopefully, this reply will make future critics a bit more careful with their dismissive arguments. |
| Keywords: | business,capital as power,capital income,industry,sabotage,unemployment,Thorstein Veblen |
| JEL: | P16 E13 E11 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:capwps:202202&r=his |
| By: | Michael Rubens |
| Abstract: | I show that buyer power of firms could either increase or decrease their technology adoption, depending on the direction of technical change and on which input markets are imperfectly competitive. I examine this relationship empirically in a setting that features both concentrated labor markets and a large technology shock: the introduction of mechanical cutters in the 19th century Illinois coal mining industry. Using a model of production and labor supply which is estimated with mine-level data, I find that oligopsony power over skilled miners reduced the usage of cutting machines, an unskill-biased technology. However, it would have increased the usage of counterfactual skill-biased and Hicks-neutral technologies. |
| JEL: | J42 L11 L13 N52 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30586&r=his |
| By: | David Cuberes (Clark University); Florencia Saravia (Universitat de Barcelona); Marc Teignier (Universitat de Barcelona and BEAT) |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the existence of significant gender gaps in STEM occupations in Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Mexico and estimates the aggregate costs associated with these gaps in Mexico. For Mexico we calibrate and simulate a version of the general equilibrium occupational choice model of Hsieh et al. (2019) to estimate the output losses associated with these differences since 1992. We find that if barriers in STEM occupations were eliminated aggregate output would have been between 1% and 10% larger, depending on the year. If female-specific social norms were also eliminated, the rise in aggregate output would be between 1.4% and 14%. For comparison purposes, we also compute the gains of eliminating all the distortions in high-skilled occupations as well as in all occupations. We find that aggregate output would rise between 16.5% and 3.6% in the former group of occupations and between 36.7% and 12% in the latter. |
| Keywords: | Talent misallocation, STEM occupations, aggregate productivity. |
| JEL: | E2 J21 J24 O40 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ewp:wpaper:432web&r=his |
| By: | Ludvig Wier; Gabriel Zucman |
| Abstract: | This paper constructs time series of global profit shifting covering the 2015-19 period, during which major international efforts were implemented to curb profit shifting. We find that (i) multinational profits grew faster than global profits, (ii) the share of multinational profits booked in tax havens remained constant at around 37 per cent, and (iii) the fraction of global corporate tax revenue lost due to profit shifting rose from 9 to 10 per cent. |
| Keywords: | Profit shifting, Multinational firms, Taxation, Corporate tax |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2022-121&r=his |
| By: | Passos, Nikolas (Scuola Normale Superiore); Morlin, Guilherme Spinato |
| Abstract: | The paper analyses the growth models of Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico since 1996. We depart from the typology proposed by Bizberg (2019) and apply a growth decomposition based on the Sraffian supermultiplier (Freitas and Dweck, 2013). We argue that the growth models perspective, introduced by Baccaro and Pontusson (2016), contributes to understanding the diversities of capitalism in Latin America. We find that the commodities boom oriented the countries towards export-led growth models, especially in Bolivia, Chile, and Mexico. Brazil and Argentina presented a hybrid growth model, with higher household consumption, and government expenditure along with exports growth. After the commodities boom, the export-led model was no longer feasible for commodity exporters. Mexico sustained the existing model, based on low-value-added manufacturing exports. Brazil and Argentina reduced public expenditures generating economic stagnation. Chile and Bolivia increased public expenditure, sustaining growth at a slower pace. This work extends the growth models perspective to emerging countries, considering former contributions of the Latin American political economy. It also highlights how the growth models evolved in tandem with changing international conditions. Finally, the paper opens a research agenda for the political economy of stagnation in Latin American economies. |
| Date: | 2022–10–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:dfyq4&r=his |
| By: | Matthew Fisher-Post (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab , PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Nicolas Hérault (Bordeaux School of Economics, University of Melbourne); Roger Wilkins (University of Melbourne, Global Labor Organization) |
| Abstract: | We produce estimates of the full distribution of all national income in Australia for the period 1991 to 2018, by combining household survey with administrative tax microdata and adjusting to match National Accounts aggregates. From these estimates, we are able to rigorously document the shifts in income shares over the period, contrasting changes in the distribution of pre-tax and post-tax national income. Comparing Australia to the US and to France, we also compare our new results to traditional household survey-based estimates of inequality. Moreover, we exploit the richness of our unique microdata to shed light on the distribution of national income across and within various population groups not usually identifiable in the tax datasets that underpin reliable top-income estimates. Among our most surprising findings, inequality of post-tax national income is less than inequality of survey-based (post-transfer, disposable) income for Australia. The gender gap in income has stubbornly remained over the past three decades. Finally, we find that Australian inequality of national income is much lower than that of the United States, while it is similar to that of France, although those at the bottom of the income distribution fare better in France than in Australia. |
| Keywords: | Income inequality,National accounts |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03828059&r=his |
| By: | Isil Erel; Yeejin Jang; Michael S. Weisbach |
| Abstract: | One of the most consequential events in any firm’s lifetime is a major acquisition. Because of their importance, mergers and acquisitions (M&As) have been an enormous area of research. However, the vast majority of this research and survey papers summarizing this research have focused on domestic deals. Cross-border ones, however, constitute about 30% of the total number and 37% of the total volume of M&As around the world since the early 1990s. We survey the literature on cross-border M&As, focusing on international factors that can lead firms to acquire a firm in another country. Such factors include differences in economic development, laws, institutions, culture, labor rights, protection of intellectual property, taxes, and corporate governance. |
| JEL: | F0 G15 G34 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30597&r=his |