nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2022‒11‒07
twenty-two papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Northumbria University

  1. The research university, invention and industry: evidence from German history By Jeremiah Dittmar; Ralph R. Meisenzahl
  2. Politicians, bankers and the Great Depression: The Spanish banking crisis of 1931 By Jorge-Sotelo, Enrique
  3. The impact of public transportation and commuting on urban labour markets: evidence from the new survey of London life and labour, 1929-32 By Andrew Seltzer; Jonathan Wadsworth
  4. Trade Acceptances, Financial Reform, and the Culture of Commercial Credit, 1915-1920 By Myles, Jamieson
  5. Community, state and market: Understanding historical water governance evolution in Central Asia By Amirova, Iroda; Petrick, Martin; Djanibekov, Nodir
  6. Warlords, State Failures, and the Rise of Communism in China By Huang,Zhangkai; Miao,Meng; Shao,Yi; Xu,L. Colin
  7. One-Stop Source : A Global Database of Inflation By Ha,Jongrim; Kose,Ayhan; Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte
  8. Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo By Meyer,Josefin; Reinhart,Carmen M.; Trebesch,Christoph
  9. The formation of a nation’s leading industry: an examination of the impacts of mercantile policy on Swedish iron exports during the 18th century By Gabel, Lina
  10. Dust to Feed, Dust to Grey: The Effect of In-Utero Exposure to the Dust Bowl on Old-Age Longevity By Hamid Noghanibehambari; Jason Fletcher
  11. The scarring effects of deep contractions By David Aikman; Mathias Drehmann; Mikael Juselius; Xiaochuan Xing
  12. Long-Term Effects of the 1923 Mass Refugee Inflow on Social Cohesion in Greece By Murard,Elie
  13. National Polls, Local Preferences and Voters’ Behaviour : Evidence from the UK General Elections By Alabrese, Eleanora
  14. Demographic Transitions Across Time and Space By Matthew Delventhal; Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Nezih Guner
  15. Financing UK democracy : A stocktake of 20 years of political donations By Draca, Mirko; Green, Colin; Homroy, Swarnodeep
  16. INTRODUCTION A L'ANALYSE ECONOMIQUE DE LA GUERRE By Jacques Fontanel
  17. Louis Bachelier's Théorie de la spéculation : The missing piece in Walras' general equilibrium By Nicole El Karoui; Antoine Parent; Pierre-Charles Pradier
  18. Demographic Transitions across Time and Space By Delventhal, Matthew J.; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Guner, Nezih
  19. Trade-Policy Dynamics : Evidence from 60 Years of U.S.-China Trade By Alessandria,George; Khan,Shafaat Yar; Khederlarian,Armen; Ruhl,KimJ.; Steinberg,Joseph B.
  20. Crédito, producción y consumo en la teoría monetaria de Hawtrey (1919) By Villarreal Restrepo, Carlos Andrés
  21. The Times Have Changed: Tracking the Evolution of Gender Norms over Time By Kuhn, Andreas
  22. Rousseau, Smith, Marx: Reflexiones sobre la riqueza y la renuncia By Adolfo Rodríguez-Herrera; Juliana Mesén-Vargas

  1. By: Jeremiah Dittmar; Ralph R. Meisenzahl
    Abstract: We examine the role of universities in knowledge production and industrial change using historical evidence. Political shocks led to a profound pro-science shift in German universities around 1800. To study the consequences, we construct novel microdata. We find that invention and manufacturing developed similarly in cities closer to and farther from universities in the 1700s and shifted towards universities and accelerated in the early 1800s. The shift in manufacturing was strongest in new and high knowledge industries. After 1800, the adoption of mechanized technology and the number and share of firms winning international awards for innovation were higher near universities.
    Keywords: industrialization, invention, universities, cities
    Date: 2022–06–30
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1856&r=
  2. By: Jorge-Sotelo, Enrique
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the literature on moral hazard, lending of last resort and the political origins of banking crises. Drawing on newly accessed quantitative and qualitative archival sources the paper documents how a bank - Banco de Cataluña - formed a coalition with the Dictatorship of Primo de Rivera (1923-30) in order to depart from the framework of "constructive ambiguity" that characterized central bank lending of last resort in Spain. As a result, the bank developed a uniquely risky portfolio and incurred in insider lending to internationally exposed firms at the onset of the Great Depression. The fall of the Dictatorship and democratic transition, the collapse of international trade, and global deflation during 1929-31 made fragilities emerge causing the bank to fail.
    Keywords: moral hazard,lender of last resort,Great Depression
    JEL: N24 E58 G01
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:eabhps:2201&r=
  3. By: Andrew Seltzer; Jonathan Wadsworth
    Abstract: This paper examines the consequences of the commuter transport revolution on working-class labour markets in London, circa 1930. Using GIS-based data constructed from the New Survey of London Life and Labour, we examine the extent of commuting and estimate the earnings returns to commuting. We show that commuting was an important feature for most working-class Londoners in the early-twentieth century. Using a variety of identifying procedures to address the endogeneity of distance commuted, we estimate a likely causal return of between 1.5 to 3.5 percent of earnings for each additional kilometre travelled. We also show that commuting was an important contributor to improvements in quality of life in the early-twentieth century.
    Keywords: commuting, public transport, earnings, London
    Date: 2022–09–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1868&r=
  4. By: Myles, Jamieson
    Abstract: In her seminal work on insider lending, Naomi Lamoreaux describes the shift to impersonal lending in late nineteenth century New England. Although orthodox banking theory prescribed investing in “real bills”, they were in short supply, so reformers focused instead on establishing new objective lending criteria. This article examines the nationwide campaign by financial reformers in the 1910s to do what banking reformers in New England had not: convince businesses across the U.S. to abandon prevailing commercial credit practices and adopt “trade acceptances”—the quintessential real bill—in their stead. To financial reformers, the Federal Reserve System offered an institutional means of reducing distributors’ dependence on mercantile credit and incentivizing banks to invest in real bills. Once underway, campaigners argued that trade acceptances would foster good business practices and stabilize the financial system and relied on trade associations and the federal government to disseminate this message. Some businesses obliged, but many opposed trade acceptances, casting them as contrary to the American culture of credit. The campaign did not eradicate established credit practices or supplant the promissory note and failed to incentivize non-member state banks to become Fed members. Instead, its significance lay in industrial finance companies’ use of trade acceptances as collateral to secure financing for the distribution and mass consumption of consumer durables. <p>
    Keywords: Impersonal lending, Bills of exchange, Money market, Culture of credit, Federal Reserve System.
    JEL: N00 N22 N72
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gnv:wpaper:unige:164262&r=
  5. By: Amirova, Iroda; Petrick, Martin; Djanibekov, Nodir
    Abstract: In Central Asia, community water governance institutions emerged and prevailed for a long time. By employing an analytical modelling approach using variants of the evolutionary Hawk-Dove game, we scrutinise three epochs' (pre-Tsarist, Tsarist and Soviet) coordination mechanisms and qualitatively compare them in the efficiency spectrum. We find that the pre-Tsarist community water governance setting, due to its synergetic and pluralistic aspects, was associated with higher efficiency than the Tsarist and Soviet periods' settings. The pre-Tsarist community arrangement linked irrigation duties with benefits. Our analytical model reveals how the Tsarist Russian regulation that replaced the election-sanctioning element with a de-facto system appointing the irrigation staff and paying them fixed wages corrupted the well-established pre-Tsarist decentralised water governance. We term this move the "Kaufman drift". Resulting inadequacies in the water governance could have been averted either by restoring the community mechanism's election-sanctioning attribute or else with an alternative approach such as privatising water resources. With the use of the "Krivoshein game," we produce an alternative scenario for the region where we envisage the potential consequences of the water privatisation. Modelling history might not disentangle the complex nature of water governance evolution fully, however, the heuristics we use in the analysis assist in guiding the diagnosis of the matter and its solution. This makes our study well-timed for contemporary Central Asia. The analyses assess current water management's chances to return to ancient principles of election-sanctioning and perspectives of private irrigation water rights.
    Keywords: Community/Rural/Urban Development, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamodp:327298&r=
  6. By: Huang,Zhangkai; Miao,Meng; Shao,Yi; Xu,L. Colin
    Abstract: This paper documents that the spread of communism in China was partly caused by state failures in the early 20th century. It finds that famines became more frequent after China fell into warlord fragmentation, especially for prefectures with less rugged borders and those facing stronger military threat. The relation between topography and famines holds when using historical border changes to instrument border ruggedness. More people from famine-inflicted prefectures died in the subsequent decades for the communist movement, but not for the Nationalist Army. There is evidence that famines exacerbated rural inequality, which pushed more peasants to the side of the communists.
    Keywords: Conflict and Fragile States,Armed Conflict,Public Sector Administrative&Civil Service Reform,Democratic Government,De Facto Governments,Public Sector Administrative and CivilService Reform,Transport Services,Energy and Natural Resources,Coastal and Marine Resources
    Date: 2021–08–23
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9754&r=
  7. By: Ha,Jongrim; Kose,Ayhan; Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte
    Abstract: This paper introduces a global database that contains inflation series: (i) for a wide range of inflation measures (headline, food, energy, and core consumer price inflation; producer price inflation; and gross domestic product deflator changes); (ii) at multiple frequencies (monthly, quarterly and annual) for an extended period (1970–2021); and (iii) for a large number (up to 196) of countries. As it doubles the number of observations over the next-largest publicly available sources, the database constitutes a comprehensive, single source for inflation series. The paper illustrates the potential use of the database with three applications. First, it studies the evolution of inflation since 1970 and document the broad-based disinflation around the world over the past half-century, with global consumer price inflation down from a peak of roughly 17 percent in 1974 to 2.5 percent in 2020. Second, it examines the behavior of inflation during global recessions. Global inflation fell sharply (on average by 0.9 percentage points) in the year to the trough of global recessions and continued to decline even as recoveries got underway. In 2020, inflation declined less, and more briefly, than in any of the previous four global recessions over the past 50 years. Third, the paper analyzes the role of common factors in explaining movements in different measures of inflation. While, across all inflation measures, inflation synchronization has risen since the early 2000s, it has been much higher for inflation measures that involve a larger share of tradable goods.
    Keywords: Inflation,Energy and Environment,Energy Demand,Energy and Mining,Macroeconomic Management,Financial Structures
    Date: 2021–07–27
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9737&r=
  8. By: Meyer,Josefin; Reinhart,Carmen M.; Trebesch,Christoph
    Abstract: This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. It compiles a new database of266,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle ofWaterloo) and 2016, covering up to 91 countries. The main insight is that, as in equity markets, the returns onexternal sovereign bonds have been sufficiently high to compensate for risk. Real ex-post returns average more than6 percent annually across two centuries, including default episodes, major wars, and global crises. This represents anexcess return of 3–4 percent above US or UK government bonds, which is comparable to stocks and outperformscorporate bonds. Central to this finding are the high average coupons offered on external sovereign bonds. Theobserved returns are hard to reconcile with canonical theoretical models and the degree of credit risk in thismarket, as measured by historical default and recovery rates. Based on an archive of more than 300 sovereign debtrestructurings since 1815, the authors show that full repudiation is rare; the median creditor loss (haircut) isbelow 50 percent.
    Keywords: External Debt,Debt Markets,Debt Relief and HIPC,International Trade and Trade Rules,Armed Conflict,Financial Sector Policy
    Date: 2022–01–20
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9906&r=
  9. By: Gabel, Lina
    Abstract: There is a wide array of literature on the particular manifestation of mercantilism in Sweden during the “Age of Liberty” and there is an even wider selection of literature on the success of the Swedish iron industry. However, there is very little literature on the combination of the two, and it suffers from issues with lack of adequate data. Therefore, this paper aims to fill that gap by studying the impact of the Swedish Commodity Act of 1724, the largest piece of Swedish mercantile legislation and an adaptation of the British Navigation Acts, on Sweden’s leading industry - iron - and its exports to its largest foreign market in England. This investigation of the relationship between mercantilism and Swedish iron trade is based on the Sound Toll Registers, one of the most detailed sources on maritime trade history. The time series regression results indicate that the implementation of the commodity act successfully increased the total tonnage of iron shipped from Sweden to England.
    JEL: N73
    Date: 2022–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:116938&r=
  10. By: Hamid Noghanibehambari; Jason Fletcher
    Abstract: Intensive agriculture and deep plowing resulted in top-soil erosion and dust storms during the 1930s. These effects have been shown to affect agricultural income and land values that persisted for years. Given the growing literature on the relevance of in-utero and early-life exposures, it is surprising that studies focusing on links between the Dust Bowl and later-life health find inconclusive and mixed results. This paper re-evaluates this literature and studies the long-term effects of in-utero and early-life exposure to top-soil erosion caused by the Dust Bowl of the 1930s on old-age longevity. Specifically, we employ Social Security Administration death records linked with the full-count 1940 census and implement event studies and difference-in-difference designs to compare the longevity of individuals in high/medium versus low top-soil erosion counties post-1930 versus pre-1930. We find intent-to-treat reductions in longevity of about 0.9 months for those born in high erosion counties post-1930. We show that these effects are not an artifact of preexisting trends in longevity. Additional analyses suggest the effects are more pronounced among children raised in farm households, females, and those with lower maternal education. We also provide suggestive evidence that reductions in adulthood income are a likely mechanism channel.
    JEL: I12 I15 J0
    Date: 2022–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30531&r=
  11. By: David Aikman; Mathias Drehmann; Mikael Juselius; Xiaochuan Xing
    Abstract: We find that deep contractions have highly persistent scarring effects, depressing the level of GDP at least a decade hence. Drawing on a panel of 24 advanced and emerging economies from 1970 to the present, we show that these effects are nonlinear and asymmetric: there is no such persistence following less severe contractions or large expansions. While scarring after financial crises is well known, it also occurred after the deep contractions of the 1970s and 1980s that followed energy price shocks and restrictive monetary policy to combat high inflation. These results are very robust and have important implications for policy making and macro modelling.
    Keywords: Hysteresis, nonlinearity, financial crises, monetary policy, oil shocks.
    JEL: E32 E37 G01
    Date: 2022–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1043&r=
  12. By: Murard,Elie
    Abstract: After the 1919–1922 Greco-Turkish conflict, 1.2 million Greek Orthodox were forcibly displacedfrom Turkey to Greece, increasing the host population by 20 percent within a few months. Refugees were pro-vided withfarmland, new houses and schools, and were granted the Greek citizenship. This paper analyses the long-term socialintegration of refugees and the effect of their resettlement on social cohesion. Combining historical and modernpopulation censuses and surveys, this paper finds that, by the 2000s, refugees display a high rate of intermarriagewith Greek natives, report levels of trust in others and in institutions similar to natives, and exhibit higherpolitical and civic participation. At the community level, places with a higher share of refugees in 1928 are morelikely to have at least one sport association 80 years later. There is no impact on political fragmentation nor oncrime. The historical refugees’ integration starkly contrasts with the social marginalization of recent Albanianimmigrants who, unlike the former, neither spoke Greek nor had the same religion as locals upon arrival. These resultssuggest that early investments in inclusion policies can be effective at fostering refugees’ assimilation, at least whennewcomers and locals have similar cultural profiles.
    Keywords: Indigenous Peoples,Indigenous Communities,Indigenous Peoples Law,Educational Sciences,Armed Conflict,Social Cohesion
    Date: 2022–01–26
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9912&r=
  13. By: Alabrese, Eleanora (University of Warwick)
    Abstract: A central challenge for social scientists consists in explaining why people vote and what are the consequences of their behaviour. Exploiting variation in national opinion polls across UK general elections, and in the degree of safeness of British constituencies over time, I provide evidence of a significant impact of pre-election polls on electoral outcomes and shed light on a novel mechanism. I find that opinion polls affect voters’ behaviour via their interaction with the recent electoral history of a constituency : first, turnout decreases when the polls predict non-competitive elections, and this effect is stronger in safe seats. Second, the composition of local vote shares and parties’ performance is also impacted by anticipated election closeness and the effects vary heterogeneously depending on whether polls predictions are aligned with the past electoral outcomes of a constituency. Finally, the causal impact on voters’ participation is confirmed with consistent individual-level evidence.
    Keywords: Opinion Polls ; Closeness ; Voters Behaviour ; First-past-the-post ; UK general elections JEL Codes: D72 ; P16
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:wqapec:15&r=
  14. By: Matthew Delventhal (Claremont McKenna College); Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania); Nezih Guner (CEMFI)
    Abstract: The demographic transition—the move from a high fertility/high mortality regime into a low fertility/low mortality regime—is one of the most fundamental transformations that countries undertake. To study demographic transitions across time and space, we compile a data set of birth and death rates for 186 countries spanning more than 250 years. We document that (i) a demographic transition has been completed or is ongoing in nearly every country; (ii) the speed of transition has increased over time; and (iii) having more neighbors that have started the transition is associated with a higher probability of a country beginning its own transition. To account for these observations, we build a quantitative model in which parents choose child quantity and educational quality. Countries differ in geographic location, and improved production and medical technologies diffuse outward from Great Britain, the technological leader. Our framework replicates well the timing and increasing speed of transitions. It also produces a strong correlation between the speeds of fertility transition and increases in schooling similar to the one in the data.
    Keywords: skill-biased technological change, diffusion
    JEL: J13 N30 O11 O33 O40
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2022-031&r=
  15. By: Draca, Mirko (University of Warwick, Department of Economics & CAGE); Green, Colin (Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Department of Economics & IZA); Homroy, Swarnodeep (University of Groningen, Department of Economics, Econometrics and Finance)
    Abstract: Political donations in the UK have been subject to comprehensive disclosure since 2001. We study the data produced as part of this disclosure policy to evaluate the role of private and public political finance over time. Total political donations have grown by 250% since 2001, reaching over £100 million in real terms for the first time in 2019. This increase has been driven by donations from private individuals, who now account for approximately 60% of donations in election years compared to 40-50% up to the late 2010s. Furthermore, ‘superdonors’ (those contributing more than £100,000) have been a prominent driver of the rise, increasing their own share from approximately 36% in 2017 to 46% in 2019. We also show that private donations to Labour fell sharply in the final stages of Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. Overall, these trends have benefited the Conservative Party, leading to an historic resource gap between the two main parties emerging circa 2019. We calculate that the ‘resource gap’ between parties now stands at approximately £27 million compared to an historic average of £8-10 million (even when taking account of publicly-funded ‘Short’ money provided to the Opposition).
    Keywords: Political Connections ; Political Donations JEL Codes: D72
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1431&r=
  16. By: Jacques Fontanel (CESICE - Centre d'études sur la sécurité internationale et les coopérations européennes - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)
    Abstract: The economic analysis of war remains deeply dependent on expressed or underlying philosophical reflections. Political economy was based on philosophical reflections on life in society, from the mercantilists in search of the power of the Prince to the Marxists, resolute opponents of the class struggle inherent in capitalism, passing through humanist, anarchist, statist or socialist analyses often grouped together under the inaccurate Marxist name of "utopian socialists" and Keynesian reflections giving the State a role that is today rendered so difficult because of regionalization and globalization. The transition from political economy to economic science has progressively disconnected formalized analyses from all forms of conflict between states or within nations. It testifies to the importance still given today to the "invisible hand" and to liberal neo-classical analyses that still value self-interest and the police state as fundamental and optimal bases of economic life. However, the 20th century shows the permanence of conflicts and wars. It is essential today, in order to understand the economy of today, to integrate into economic reflections the functioning of political systems which, under declarations favorable to the functioning of the market economy, continue to exert influences that are similar to mercantilist type policies. Economic development goes hand in hand with the power of the state and vice versa.
    Abstract: L'analyse économique de la guerre reste profondément dépendante de réflexions philosophiques exprimées ou sous-jacentes. L'économie politique était fondée sur des réflexions philosophiques portant notamment sur la vie en société, des mercantilistes à la recherche de la puissance du Prince aux marxistes adversaires résolus de la lutte des classes inhérente au capitalisme, en passant par les analyses humanistes, anarchistes, étatiques ou socialistes souvent regroupées sous la dénomination marxiste inexacte de «socialistes utopiques » et les réflexions keynésiennes donnant à l'Etat un rôle qui lui est aujourd'hui rendu si difficile du fait de la régionalisation et de la globalisation. Le passage de l'économie politique à la science économique a progressivement déconnecté les analyses formalisées de toutes les formes de conflits entre les Etats ou à l'intérieur des Nations. Il témoigne de l'importance accordée encore aujourd'hui à la « main invisible » et aux analyses néo-classiques libérales qui valorisent toujours l'intérêt personnel et l'Etat gendarme comme bases fondamentales et optimales de la vie économique. Pourtant, le XXe siècle met en évidence la permanence des conflits et des guerres. Il est aujourd'hui essentiel, pour comprendre l'économie d'aujourd'hui, d'intégrer dans les réflexions économiques le fonctionnement de systèmes politiques lesquels, sous les déclarations favorables au fonctionnement de l'économie de marché, continuent à exercer des influences qui s'apparentent à des politiques de type mercantiliste. Le développement économique va de pair avec la puissance de l'Etat et vice versa.
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03780322&r=
  17. By: Nicole El Karoui (LPSM (UMR_8001) - Laboratoire de Probabilités, Statistique et Modélisation - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité); Antoine Parent (LED - Laboratoire d'Economie Dionysien - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, CAC-IXXI, Complex Systems Institute); Pierre-Charles Pradier (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: We propose a revisited view of Louis Bachelier's contribution to economic analysis. Conventional wisdom presents Bachelier as the founding father of modern financial theory. We show that Bachelier's work is constructed to respond to a gap in the Walrasian general equilibrium, where the options market is verbosely introduced but not modeled. By providing a price formation theory for the missing options market, Bachelier undoubtedly presents himself as the heir apparent of the mathematical economics tradition founded by Walras. Indeed, Bachelier's methodological stance is clearly formed on the "rational method" of Walras, proceeding by mathematical demonstration from postulates that we make explicit. We show additionally how Walras and Bachelier in pre-WW2 France reached to the same audience. We propose to name this augmented general equilibrium model the Walras-Bachelier model of intertemporal general equilibrium in the presence of risk. This theory prefigures the Arrow-Debreu model, with some differences which we make clear.
    Keywords: General equilibrium,Financial markets,Option pricing,Bachelier,Walras
    Date: 2022–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-03815600&r=
  18. By: Delventhal, Matthew J. (Claremont McKenna College); Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús (University of Pennsylvania); Guner, Nezih (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)
    Abstract: The demographic transition –the move from a high fertility/high mortality regime into a low fertility/low mortality regime– is one of the most fundamental transformations that countries undertake. To study demographic transitions across time and space, we compile a data set of birth and death rates for 186 countries spanning more than 250 years. We document that (i) a demographic transition has been completed or is ongoing in nearly every country; (ii) the speed of transition has increased over time; and (iii) having more neighbors that have started the transition is associated with a higher probability of a country beginning its own transition. To account for these observations, we build a quantitative model in which parents choose child quantity and educational quality. Countries differ in geographic location, and improved production and medical technologies diffuse outward from Great Britain, the technological leader. Our framework replicates well the timing and increasing speed of transitions. It also produces a strong correlation between the speeds of fertility transition and increases in schooling similar to the one in the data. Keywords: Demographic transition, skill-biased technological change, diffusion.
    Keywords: demographic transition, skill-biased technological change, diffusion
    JEL: J13 N3 O11 O33 O40
    Date: 2022–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15575&r=
  19. By: Alessandria,George; Khan,Shafaat Yar; Khederlarian,Armen; Ruhl,KimJ.; Steinberg,Joseph B.
    Abstract: This paper studies the growth of Chinese imports into the United States from autarky during 1950–1970 to about 15 percent of overall imports in 2008, taking advantage of the rich heterogeneity in trade policy and trade growth across products during this period. Central to the analysis is an accounting for the dynamics of trade, trade policy, and trade-policy expectations. The analysis isolates the lagged effects of past reforms and the current effects of uncertainty about future reforms. It builds a multi-industry, heterogeneous-firm model with a dynamic export participation decision to estimate a path of trade-policy expectations. The findings show that being granted Normal Trade Relations (NTR) status in 1980 was largely a surprise and that, in the early stages, this reform had a high probability of being reversed. The likelihood of reversal dropped considerably during the mid-1980s, and, despite China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, changed little throughout the late 1990s and early 2000s. Thus, although uncertainty depressed trade substantially following the 1980 liberalization, much of the trade growth that followed China’s WTO accession was a delayed response to previous reforms rather than a response to declining uncertainty.
    Keywords: International Trade and Trade Rules,Rules of Origin,Trade Policy,Trade and Multilateral Issues,World Trade Organization,Trade and Services
    Date: 2021–07–29
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9741&r=
  20. By: Villarreal Restrepo, Carlos Andrés
    Abstract: Resumen: El objetivo de este documento de trabajo es realizar una interpretación de la teoría monetaria de Hawtrey (1919). Este autor define la cantidad de dinero como el crédito bancario, cuya circulación entre comerciantes, productores y consumidores provoca cambios no proporcionales en los precios monetarios. Se trataría entonces de una teoría monetaria que defiende la hipótesis de una demanda de dinero endógena. De esta manera, la teoría monetaria de Hawtrey rechaza la neutralidad del dinero, por lo cual se tiene un sustento teórico para explicar el origen de las crisis financieras. Abstract: The aim of this working paper is to present the monetary theory of Hawtrey (1919). This author defines the quantity of money as credit, whose circulation among merchants, producers and consumers causes non-proportional changes in monetary prices. In this way, Hawtrey's monetary theory rejects the neutrality of money, which is why there is theoretical support to explain the origin of financial crises.
    Keywords: Hawtrey, crédito, teoría monetaria, teoría cuantitativa del dinero, neutralidad del dinero
    JEL: B13 E13 E42 E50
    Date: 2021–09–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000196:020476&r=
  21. By: Kuhn, Andreas (Swiss Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training)
    Abstract: Data on job advertisements from 1950 up to 2020 reveal that there was a significant change among Swiss employers' stated preferences regarding their prospective employees' gender. More specifically, the proportion of gender-neutral job posts increased from 5 to almost 95 percent within the observation period. To further corroborate and contextualize this finding, I complement it with time series on the relative frequency of several specific queries, such as equality between men and women, from Google's German language book corpus. These additional series are broadly consistent with the evolution of the share of gender-neutral job posts. However, it also appears that there are two distinct narratives, one concerned with the personal sphere, identity and intimate relationships, the other with the political and public realm. Interestingly, the narrative on personal relations set off considerably earlier than the change in the proportion of gender-neutral job ads. Overall, the evidence from the different data series shows that gender norms have changed substantively, yet in a complex manner, over the past decades.
    Keywords: social norms, gender norms, gender equality, job advertisements, narratives, cultural change, Google books
    JEL: D91 J16
    Date: 2022–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15621&r=
  22. By: Adolfo Rodríguez-Herrera (Universidad de Costa Rica); Juliana Mesén-Vargas
    Date: 2022–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fcr:wpaper:202206&r=

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