nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2022‒10‒31
thirty papers chosen by

  1. The Politics of Funding: the Rockefeller Foundation and French Economics, 1945–1955 By Serge Benest
  2. Material conditions and ideas in global history By Motadel, David; Drayton, Richard
  3. Not an ordinary bank but a great engine of state: the Bank of England and the British economy, 1694–1844 By O'Brien, Patrick K.; Palma, Nuno
  4. The Role of Cliometrics in History and Economics By Claude Diebolt; Michael Haupert
  5. Women's Wages and Empowerment : Pre-industrial Japan, 1600-1890 By Kumon, Yuzuru; Sakai, Kazuho
  6. War, Influenza, and U.S. Carbon Intensity. By Nicholas Z. Muller
  7. Mapping banking centres globally since 1970 By Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol; Aliénor Cameron
  8. Influenza Mortality in French Regions after the Hong Kong Flu Pandemic By Florian Bonnet; Hippolyte d'Albis; Josselin Thuilliez
  9. Gender Gaps at the Academies By David Card; Stefano DellaVigna; Patricia Funk; Nagore Iriberri
  10. Who Can Tell Which Banks Will Fail? By Kristian Blickle; Markus Brunnermeier; Stephan Luck
  11. Union, border effects, and market integration in Britain By Daniel Cassidy; Nick Hanley
  12. Culture in Historical Political Economy By Sara Lowes
  13. Welfare Reform and Repression in an Autocracy: Bismarck and the Socialists By Felix Kersting
  14. Market access, the skill premium and human capital in Spain (1860-1930) By Rafael González-Val; Pau Insa-Sánchez; Julio Martinez-Galarraga; Daniel A. Tirado-Fabregat
  15. Is Real Interest Rate a Monetary Phenomenon in Advanced Economies? Time-Varying Evidence from Over 700 Years of Data By Vasilios Plakandaras; Rangan Gupta; Mark E. Wohar
  16. A dissonant violin in the international orchestra? Discount rate policy in Italy (1894-1913) By Di Martino Paolo; Bagliano Fabio
  17. Gender or class – What determines voting? Lessons from expanding the suffrage in early 1900s Norway By Edda Torsdatter Solbakken
  18. Rise and fall of empires in the industrial era: A story of shifting comparative advantages By Roberto Bonfatti; Kerem Cosar
  19. The Analysis of Inequality in the Bretton Woods Institutions By Ferreira,Francisco H. G.
  20. Comecon Monetary Mechanisms. A history of socialist monetary integration (1949 – 1991) By Faudot, Adrien; Marinova, Tsvetelina; Nenovsky, Nikolay
  21. Determinants of FDI in the Chilean Case: A FMOLS Analysis. 1970-2016. By Miguel D. Ramirez
  22. Regard rétrospectif et cliométrique sur une étape de la construction européenne. Les activités innovantes : 1981-2001 By Claude Diebolt
  23. An analysis of central bank decision-making By Maria Demertzis; Catarina Martins; Nicola Viegi
  24. The Big Expansion of Rural Secondary Schooling during the Cultural Revolution and The Returns to Education in Rural China By Terry Sicular; Mengbing Zhu
  25. Dynamics of first-time patenting firms By Øyvind A. Nilsen; Arvid Raknerud
  26. The Social Costs of Sovereign Default By Farah-Yacoub,Juan P.; Graf Von Luckner,Clemens Mathis Henrik; Ramalho,Rita; Reinhart,Carmen M.
  27. Contemporary radical reflections on the principles of economics - Special issue in memory of Mario Nuti • Introduction By Estrin, Saul; Witztum, Amos
  28. Young people’s university plans: evidence from German reunification By Ghazala Azmat; Katja Kaufmann
  29. Today’s economics: One, No One and One Hundred Thousand. By Ambrosino, Angela; Cedrini, Mario; B. Davis, John
  30. Pierre Pénet et Juan Flores Zendejas (eds). Sovereign Debt Diplomacies : Rethinking Sovereign Debt from Colonial Empires to Hegemony. Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2021, 384 pages. By Nathalie Ferrière

  1. By: Serge Benest (CSO - Centre de sociologie des organisations (Sciences Po, CNRS) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Universitat de Barcelona, Department of Economic History, Institutions, Politics and World Economy)
    Abstract: Following World War II, the director of the social sciences division at the Rockefeller Foundation, the industrial economist Joseph H. Willits, thought it important to extend its activities to Europe, especially France. His agenda was to strengthen institutional economics and to create modern research centers with a view to stabilizing the political situation. In the postwar decade, almost all economic research centers in France were funded by the Foundation, which helped provide greater autonomy to French economists within academia but failed to reshape French economic training and research.
    Date: 2022–06–27
  2. By: Motadel, David; Drayton, Richard
    Abstract: Since the rise of a “scientific” historiography in the nineteenth century, the role of ideas in history versus that of material forces has been a key philosophical problem. Thomas Piketty's Capital and Ideology (2019), read as a work of global history, offers a provocative rehearsal of this question. On the one hand, the book is an attempt to provide a narrative historical frame for the hard data of the World Inequality Database. On the other, paradoxically, it offers a defiant conclusion that ideology is, or at least could be, the key driver in social and institutional change towards universal progress. St Simon, Comte and Spencer have found their twenty‐first century heir. How can we historicize Piketty's impetus, both understanding its provenance and making sense of its limitations? One key issue is its roots in the traditions of National Accounts, which leads to an approach to the global which is stresses comparison over connection, and to an uncritical reproduction of the portrait of an egalitarian non‐capitalist Twentieth century painted by Kuznets during the Cold War. Another is its presentism, with the historical argument driven by an attempt to understand the c.1980–2020 conjuncture and its alternatives, and a connected overdependence on the support of a few historians. A third, a consequence in part of the inequalities between the quality of data we have for different parts of the world, and of Piketty's provenance and imagined audience, is a Eurocentric, even Gallocentric approach. A fourth is a very French republican refusal to address how class is complicated by identities of race and nation so that neither egalitarian policies nor ideologies provide remedies for the populist politics of right. None of these criticisms are in contradiction with our view that Capital and Ideology is a work of social theory of world historical importance.
    Keywords: economic history; global history; inequality; intellectual history; social history
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2021
  3. By: O'Brien, Patrick K.; Palma, Nuno
    Abstract: From its foundation as a private corporation in 1694, the Bank of England extended large amounts of credit to support the British private economy and to support an increasingly centralised British state. The Bank helped the British state reach a position of geopolitical and economic hegemony in the international economic order. In this paper, we deploy recalibrated financial data to analyse an evolving trajectory of connections between the British economy, the state, and the Bank of England. We show how these connections contributed to form an effective and efficient fiscal–naval state and promote the development of a system of financial intermediation for the economy. This symbiotic relationship became stronger after 1793. The evidence that we consider here shows that although the Bank was nominally a private institution and profits were paid to its shareholders, it was playing a public role well before Bagehot's doctrine.
    Keywords: Bank of England; national defence; state-building institutions
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2022–09–02
  4. By: Claude Diebolt (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Michael Haupert
    Abstract: How did cliometrics in particular, and economic history in general, arrive at this crossroads, where it is at once considered to be a dying discipline and one that is spreading through the economics discipline as a whole? To understand the current status and future prospects of economic history, it is necessary to understand its past.
    Keywords: Cliometrics,Economic history,Robert Fogel,Douglass North,Economic growth,Econometrics,Interdisciplinary economic history,New economic history,Multidisciplinary,Methodology,Quantitative
    Date: 2022
  5. By: Kumon, Yuzuru; Sakai, Kazuho
    Abstract: Using new evidence from servant contracts, 1600-1890, we estimate women's wages in Japan. Women's wages could only sustain 1.5-2 people up to 1900, the lowest recorded in the pre-industrial world. We then show the gender wage ratio was 0.7, higher than in Western Europe. Despite this, Japan had lower female empowerment for two reasons. First, absolute wages were low, so women were not economically autonomous. Second, landownership incomes were mostly earned by men, raising their bargaining positions. Low female empowerment in Japan could also explain the early and universal marriage of its women unlike their empowered Western European counterparts.
    Date: 2022–09
  6. By: Nicholas Z. Muller
    Abstract: Carbon intensity from fossil fuel use in the United States economy peaked in 1917. World War I ended, and the Spanish Flu pandemic broke out one year later in 1918. This paper contends that these events, coupled with associated turmoil in the domestic coal industry, were largely responsible for the turning point in carbon intensity. It is instructive to consider that geopolitics, labor markets, and public health at the time of peak carbon intensity bear relevance to the global economy from 2019 to the present. Interventions in markets intended to mitigate detrimental consequences of pandemic and war may induce ancillary impacts for long-run climate change and environmental quality.
    JEL: N41 N42 N51 N52 N71 N72 Q43 Q54
    Date: 2022–09
  7. By: Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol; Aliénor Cameron
    Abstract: This paper analyses the geographical evolution of banking centres since 1970, based on The Banker’s ranking of the world’s top commercial lending banks.
    Date: 2022–07
  8. By: Florian Bonnet (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques); Hippolyte d'Albis (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Josselin Thuilliez (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Influenza mortality has dramatically decreased in France since the 1950s. Annual death rates peaked during two pandemics: the Asian flu (1956-57) and the Hong-Kong flu (1969-1970). This study's objective is to evaluate whether the second pandemic created a structural change in the dynamics of influenza mortality in France. We employ a new database on influenza mortality since 1950 at the subnational level (90 geographic areas) to estimate statistical models to find whether a structural change happened and to explain the differences in mortality rates across geographic areas. Influenza mortality increased between 1950 and 1969, and decreased from 1970 onward. The Hong-Kong flu is identified as the event of a structural break. After the break, geographical differences are less explained by regional characteristics such as income, density or aging ratio. Hong Kong flu was found to be associated with a major change in influenza mortality in France. Change in health practices and policies induced a decline in mortality that started in 1970, just after the pandemics. The health benefits are notably important for senior citizens and for the poorest regions.
    Date: 2022–08
  9. By: David Card; Stefano DellaVigna; Patricia Funk; Nagore Iriberri
    Abstract: Historically, a large majority of the newly elected members of the National Academy of Science (NAS) and the American Academy of Arts and Science (AAAS) were men. Within the past two decades, however, that situation has changed, and in the last 3 years women made up about 40 percent of the new members in both academies. We build lists of active scholars from publications in the top journals in three fields – Psychology, Mathematics and Economics – and develop a series of models to compare changes in the probability of selection of women as members of the NAS and AAAS from the 1960s to today, controlling for publications and citations. In the early years of our sample, women were less likely to be selected as members than men with similar records. By the 1990s, the selection process at both academies was approximately gender-neutral, conditional on publications and citations. In the past 20 years, however, a positive preference for female members has emerged and strengthened in all three fields. Currently, women are 3-15 times more likely to be selected as members of the AAAS and NAS than men with similar publication and citation records.
    JEL: J15 J16 O30
    Date: 2022–09
  10. By: Kristian Blickle (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Markus Brunnermeier (Princeton University); Stephan Luck (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
    Abstract: We use the German Crisis of 1931, a key event of the Great Depression, to study how depositors behave during a bank run in the absence of deposit insurance. We find that deposits decline by around 20% during the run and that there is an equal outflow of retail and non-financial wholesale deposits from both ex-post failing and surviving banks. This implies that regular depositors are unable to identify failing banks. In contrast, the interbank market precisely identifies which banks will fail: the interbank market collapses for failing banks entirely but continues to function for surviving banks, which can borrow from other banks in response to deposit outflows. Since regular depositors appear uninformed, it is unlikely that deposit insurance would exacerbate moral hazard. Instead, interbank depositors are best positioned for providing “discipline†via short-term funding.
    Keywords: financial crises, banks, Germany
    JEL: G01 G21 N20 N24
    Date: 2022–02
  11. By: Daniel Cassidy (University of Galway); Nick Hanley (University of Glasgow)
    Abstract: The Act of Union (1707) unified England and Scotland politically and economically, formally establishing the United Kingdom of Great Britain, and a customs union throughout the island of Britain. In this paper, we examine the impact of union on British market integration using wheat prices from a sample of English and Scottish markets. We estimate a coefficient of variation and a dynamic factor model to examine the evolution of price convergence and market efficiency across English and Scottish markets from the 1640s to the mid-eighteenth century. Our results suggest that union strongly influenced price convergence but had little impact on market efficiency. There was an immediate sharp increase in the level of price convergence across British markets following the union, suggesting that the elimination of tariffs and other trade frictions was a strong driver of price convergence. To formally test the impact of union on price convergence, we estimate border effects which show the impact of the pre-union border on price gaps between English and Scottish markets. The results suggest that the customs union strongly influenced price convergence, lowering the average price gap by 16%, and implying a pre-union border width of 160-162km.
    Keywords: Customs Union, Market Integration, Prices
    JEL: F15 N13 P45
    Date: 2022–10
  12. By: Sara Lowes
    Abstract: Culture – the set of socially transmitted values and beliefs held by individuals – has important implications for a wide variety of economic outcomes. Both the causes and consequences of culture have been the subject of work in Historical Political Economy. I first outline several theories on the origins, evolution, and transmission of culture. I then discuss various strategies for measuring culture. Finally, I review recent research in HPE that explores the origins of variation in culture and the economic consequences of culture.
    JEL: N01 P0 P50 Z1
    Date: 2022–09
  13. By: Felix Kersting (HU Berlin)
    Abstract: Can autocratic governments gain support by implementing a welfare reform and a repressive law? This paper studies a famous case – Bismarck’s policies of social insurance and the antisocialist law in late 19th century Germany. The socialist party, I find, increases its vote share in constituencies more affected by Bismarck’s policies. For identification, I exploit local and industry-specific variation in treatment intensity due to ex-ante existing local healthcare and detailed lists on forbidden socialist organizations. This variation allows me to use a flexible difference-in-differences as well as a shift-share approach. As mechanisms, I highlight that the socialist party evaded the repression by reallocating their activity and gained from the social insurance by claiming the credits for the welfare reform and providing a local cooperative alternative.
    Keywords: welfare reform, repression, social democracy, opposition, voting, autocracy
    JEL: D74 N44 P16
    Date: 2022–09
  14. By: Rafael González-Val (Universidad de Zaragoza and Institut d’Economia de Barcelona (IEB)); Pau Insa-Sánchez (Universitat de València); Julio Martinez-Galarraga (Universitat de Barcelona); Daniel A. Tirado-Fabregat (Universitat de València)
    Abstract: This paper explores the relationship between market access and education levels in the context of an industrializing economy, in this case Spain between the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Specifically, we examine whether differences in regional accumulations of human capital could be related to market access, which would explain the divergent trajectories of regional economic growth in Spain. To do this, we empirically test the relationship between education variables and market potential for Spanish provinces between 1860 and 1930. We then focus on the mechanism that may be mediating this relationship, i.e. the skill premium. The results suggest that there were sizeable provincial differences in the return on investment in education, the explanation for which would be that those provinces with the highest market potential specialized more in skill-intensive sectors in which higher wages were paid.
    Keywords: Economic history, market access, human capital
    JEL: I25 N90 O15 R12
    Date: 2022–10
  15. By: Vasilios Plakandaras (Department of Economics, Democritus University of Thrace, Komotini, 69100, Greece); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Mark E. Wohar (College of Business Administration, University of Nebraska at Omaha, 6708 Pine Street, Omaha, NE 68182, USA)
    Abstract: In this paper we examine the effect of permanent inflation shocks on real interest rates, based on a structural Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model that account for parameter instability. This is important since we use over 700 years of annual data that covers the entire economic history for France, Germany, Holland (the Netherlands), Italy, Japan, Spain, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US), going as far back as 1310. Based on the responses of real interest rates to an inflation shock, the Fisherian hypothesis of a one-to-one movement of inflation to nominal interest rates can only be rejected episodically, in favour of a Mundell-Tobin effect of less than proportional increase in the nominal interest rate to an inflation shock. In other words, generally speaking, real interest rate in the long-run tends to be unaffected by inflation shocks, as derived from longest possible data samples of real interest rates and inflation for the advanced economies considered. Hence, the results in the existing literature based on post World War II samples, should be treated with caution due to the possibility of sample selection bias. Our findings, that real interest rates might not necessarily be a monetary phenomenon, have important policy implications in the current context of rising global inflation rates.
    Keywords: Inflation, Real interest rate, TVP-VAR
    JEL: C32 E31 E43
    Date: 2022–09
  16. By: Di Martino Paolo (Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics (ESOMAS), University of Torino, Italy;); Bagliano Fabio (Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics (ESOMAS) and Collegio Carlo Alberto, University of Torino, Italy;)
    Abstract: Based on a new series and applying econometric techniques, this paper investigates the discount rate policy implemented by the main Italian bank of issue of the time, the Banca d'Italia. We focus on two interrelated aspects of the problem. Firstly, anchoring our analysis to the Bank's annual reports, we enquiry into the general determinants of its discount rate variations. Secondly, we study the reaction of the Italian rate to exogenous changes in leading international official rates. We show that discount rate variations responded to short-term fluctuations of official rates in the UK and France but, simultaneously, to deviations from long-term equilibrium relations involving two pairs of variables. On the one hand, a relationship between the Italian discount rate and the French open market rate; on the other hand, a link between the Bank's reserve ratio and its exposure to the national credit market. We also show that reactions to variations in foreign official rates were of a very limited magnitude. This ``sterilisation" policy came with little repercussions in terms of exchange rate fluctuations or loss of international reserves, somehow in contrast with the results of the recent literature.
    Keywords: Bank of Italy, Discount Rate Policy, International Gold Standard, Sterilization
    JEL: N13 N23 E58 F33
    Date: 2022–10
  17. By: Edda Torsdatter Solbakken (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: Previous literature has found that extending the suffrage to both females and poorer voters increases the supply of public goods. This paper investigates whether the difference in voting between men and women can be explained by differences in income alone, or if there exist gender specific differences in preferences. I exploit two key features of the expansion of suffrage in municipality elections in early 20th century Norway. First, the time at which people gained the right to vote depended on both their gender and their household income. Second, the income threshold for suffrage was set nationally, creating variation across municipalities in the share of new voters following each extension of the suffrage. This variation allows me to estimate separate effects for the change in supply of health personnel following the extension of suffrage to poor men, rich women, and poor women, respectively. I find that the enfranchisement of both poor men and rich women increases the supply of doctors relative to when only rich men had the right to vote. These results are consistent with gender specific preferences for health services to the community.
    Keywords: Enfranchisement; women’s suffrage; public goods; welfare state
    JEL: P16 H42 D72 J16 N24 N44
    Date: 2022–09
  18. By: Roberto Bonfatti; Kerem Cosar
    Abstract: The last two centuries witnessed the rise and fall of empires. We construct a model which rationalises this in terms of the changing trade gains from empires. In the model, empires are arrangements that reduce trade cost between an industrial metropole and the agricultural periphery. During early industrialisation, the value of such bilateral trade increases, and so does the value of empires. As industrialisation diffuses, and as manufactures become more differentiated, trade becomes more multilateral and intra-industry, reducing the value of empires. Our results are consistent with long-term changes in income distribution and trade patterns, and with previous historical arguments.
    Keywords: International trade, empires, comparative advantage, optimal country size.File-URL:
    Date: 2022
  19. By: Ferreira,Francisco H. G.
    Abstract: This paper assesses the evolution of thinking, analysis, and discourse about inequality in theWorld Bank and the International Monetary Fund since their inception in 1944, on the basis of bibliometric analysis, areading of the literature, and personal experience. Whereas the Fund was largely unconcerned with economic inequalityuntil the 2000s but has shown a rapidly growing interest since then, the Bank’s approach has been characterized byebbs and flows, with five phases being apparent. The degree of interest in inequality in the two institutions appears tobe largely determined by the prevailing intellectual profile of the topic in academic research, particularly ineconomics, and by ideological shifts in major shareholder countries, propagated downward internally by seniormanagement. Data availability, albeit partly endogenous, also plays a role. Looking ahead, World Bank andInternational Monetary Fund researchers continue to have an important role to play, despite a much more crowded field ininequality research. The paper suggests that this role involves holding firm to an emphasis on inequality “at thebottom” and highlighting four themes that may deserve special attention.
    Date: 2022–08–22
  20. By: Faudot, Adrien; Marinova, Tsvetelina; Nenovsky, Nikolay
    Abstract: Today's fragmentation of the world economy, the emergence in the near future of large economic blocs operating in different ideological and conceptual models of economy and society, and the fierce struggle for resources and influence, logically lead us turn to history, including the recent one. The issue of the functioning and collapse of the socialist monetary community has another, more specific but also topical meaning. It has to do with understanding the mechanisms of disintegration of the European Union and the euro area, its management and eventual overcoming. In this paper, we focus on the study of monetary mechanisms within the socialist system, and more specifically on its model of integration, the Comecon, which lasted from 1949 to 1991. In the first part we present the basic principles of socialist integration and the role of international socialist money. In the second part we present the main stages in the evolution of the monetary mechanisms of Comecon. The third part is devoted to some technical problems of multilateral payments and the peculiarities of the transfer ruble. Finally, we try to compare with European Payment Union. We present some competing hypotheses, answering the question why the monetary system of Comecon failed.
    Keywords: socialist integration, Comecon, transferable ruble, European Payment Union, Soviet Union, commodity-money relations, multilateral clearing
    JEL: E42 F15 F45 N14 N24 P30
    Date: 2022–07–20
  21. By: Miguel D. Ramirez (Department of Economics, Trinity College)
    Keywords: Chilean Economy; Gross Capital Formation; FDI flows; FMOLS estimator; Gregory Hansen single-break cointegration test;Johansen cointegration test; remittacnes of profits and dividends; Unit root tests.
    JEL: C22 O40 O57
    Date: 2022–10
  22. By: Claude Diebolt (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: L'objet de cet article est d'étudier les débordements géographiques de connaissance sur l'activité innovante et le processus de convergence des régions européennes de 1981 à 2001. Notre recherche révèle la présence d'effets spatiaux que nous intégrons successivement dans notre analyse de la β convergence. L'estimation d'un modèle avec autocorrélation spatiale des erreurs montre que les effets de débordement géographique contribuent favorablement au processus de rattrapage des régions les moins performantes. Nous modélisons l'hétérogénéité spatiale par une spécification à deux régimes spatiaux, de type « centre-périphérie ». L'ensemble de ces résultats montrent que le processus de convergence globale masque des disparités au sein des régions européennes où, sur la période considérée, seules convergent les régions appartenant au centre de l'Europe.
    Keywords: Brevets,Cliométrie,Convergence,Effets spatiaux,Persistance,Régions européennes
    Date: 2022
  23. By: Maria Demertzis; Catarina Martins; Nicola Viegi
    Abstract: Bank of England MPC celebrates 25 years and we use this occasion to compare its decision-making process to that of the ECB
    Date: 2022–07
  24. By: Terry Sicular (University of Western Ontario); Mengbing Zhu (Beijing Normal University, China)
    Abstract: During the Cultural Revolution China embarked on a dramatic, albeit temporary, expansion of secondary education in rural areas that affected tens of millions of children who reached secondary school age in the late 1960s and 1970s. The conventional wisdom is that this expansion was politicized and low quality. Using instrumental variables estimation, we exploit variation in the expansion across localities and birth cohorts to estimate the impact of Cultural Revolution education on individual outcomes. Creative use of historical county-level information matched with rich household survey data from the mid-1990s allows analysis of multiple outcomes. We find a significant, positive effect of Cultural Revolution years of education on off-farm employment and wage earnings. The effect on household income is mixed and likely reflects the substitution of market purchases for own production.
    Keywords: Education expansion, secondary education, returns to schooling, rural China, Cultural Revolution
    JEL: I21 I28 J24 J31 O15
    Date: 2022
  25. By: Øyvind A. Nilsen; Arvid Raknerud (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: This paper investigates firm dynamics in the period before, during, and after an event consisting of a first published patent application. The analysis is based on patent data from the Norwegian Industrial Property Office merged with data from several business registers covering a period of almost 20 years. We apply an event study design and use matching to control for confounding factors. The first patent application by a young firm is associated with significant growth in employment, output, assets and public research funding. Moreover, our results indicate that economic activity starts to increase at least three years ahead of the first patent application. However, we find no evidence of additional firm growth after patent approval for successful applicants. Our findings indicate that the existence of a properly functioning patenting system supports innovation activities, especially early in the life cycle of firms.
    Keywords: Patenting; Firm performance; Panel data; Event study design
    JEL: C33 D22 O34
    Date: 2022–08
  26. By: Farah-Yacoub,Juan P.; Graf Von Luckner,Clemens Mathis Henrik; Ramalho,Rita; Reinhart,Carmen M.
    Abstract: This paper estimates the costs of sovereign defaults to a broader extent than has been done inthe literature. Applying the synthetic control method to a sample of 131 defaults since 1900, it finds that, onaverage, growth in the first two years falls 3.6 and 2.4 percentage points short of the counterfactual. Still, aftera decade, defaulters’ economic output per capita is nearly 17 percent below that of the counterfactual. Povertyheadcounts—available since the 1980s—exceed their pre-crisis levels by roughly 30 percent shortly after default andremain elevated a decade later. Variables proxying access to nutrition, energy, and health outcomes—available since the1960s—suggest that standards of living decline sharply after sovereign defaults. For instance, on average, by year 10after default, defaulters have 13 percent more infant deaths every year than the synthetic control. And surviving infantsare expected to have shorter lives: life expectancy drops to 1.5 percent below the counterfactual.
    Date: 2022–08–31
  27. By: Estrin, Saul; Witztum, Amos
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2022–07–15
  28. By: Ghazala Azmat; Katja Kaufmann
    Abstract: Around a decade after Germany's reunification, a long-standing educational gap between the east and west of the country - completion of the certificate needed to enter university - had closed. Ghazala Azmat and Katja Kaufmann reveal how the political and economic upheaval of the times influenced young people's choices.
    Keywords: college plans, perceived returns, economic, social and political preferences, Schools
    Date: 2022–06–21
  29. By: Ambrosino, Angela; Cedrini, Mario; B. Davis, John (University of Turin)
    Abstract: The paper employs the sense and structure of a famous novel by the Italian writer Luigi Pirandello, One, No One and One Hundred Thousand (Uno, nessuno e centomila), of 1926, to reflect upon the recent past, current status, and possible future appearance of economics. From an open/closed system perspective, the paper explores economics in relation to other social science disciplines in the epoch of economics imperialism (“One”), and then the potential identity crisis (similar to the one experienced by the novel’s protagonist) occurring to economics during a prolonged phase of reverse imperialisms by other social sciences (“No one”). Finally, the article provides elements to imagine a possible future of pluralism (“One Hundred Thousand”) for the discipline.
    Date: 2022–09
  30. By: Nathalie Ferrière (IEP Aix-en-Provence - Sciences Po Aix - Institut d'études politiques d'Aix-en-Provence)
    Date: 2022–07

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