nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2022‒10‒24
thirty papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Northumbria University

  1. Gender and the financialization of Spanish retail banking, 1949-1970 By Batiz-Lazo, Bernardo; Martínez-Rodríguez, Susana
  2. Economic research at central banks: Are central banks interested in the history of economic thought? By Ivo Maes
  3. Pari Passu Lost and Found: The Origins of Sovereign Bankruptcy 1798-1873 By Marc Flandreau
  4. Intergenerational mobility in a mid-Atlantic economy: Canada,1871-1901 By Antonie, Luiza; Inwood, Kris; Minns, Chris; Summerfield, Fraser
  5. Pre-industrial inequality in Catalonia By Julio Martinez-Galarraga; Marc Prat
  6. Goldilocks: American precious metals and the Rise of the West By Yao Chen; Nuno Palma; Felix Ward
  7. Voting up? The effects of democracy and franchise extension on human stature By Batinti, Alberto; Costa-Font, Joan; J. Hatton, Timothy
  8. Evaluating early modern lockdowns: household quarantine in Bristol, 1565–1604 By Udale, Charles
  9. Rebel Governance and Development: The Persistent Effects of Guerrillas in El Salvador By Antonella Bandiera; Lelys I. Dinarte Diaz; Juan Miguel Jimenez; Sandra V. Rozo; Maria Micaela Sviatschi
  10. Une lecture cliométrique du développement de l’instruction primaire en France au XIXe siècle By Claude Diebolt; Magali Jaoul-Grammare; Faustine Perrin
  11. La globalisation financière et ses crises : une continuité de l'Antiquité à nos jours ? By Brahim Gaies
  12. A Model of the Gold Standard By Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Daniel Sanches
  13. The Political Effects of Trade with Japan in the 1980s By Shuichiro Nishioka; Eric Olson
  14. Dimensions of Illiteracy: A Quantitative and Comparative Approach from Italy, circa 1815 By Marco Martinez
  15. Anatomy of a Premodern State By Leonor Freire Costa; António Henriques; Nuno Palma
  16. Revealed in Transition: The Political Effect of Planning's Legacy By Timur Natkhov; William Pyle
  17. The rich, poor, and middle class: Banking crises and income distribution By Mehdi El Herradi; Aurélien Leroy
  18. "Railways and Roadways to Trust". By Despina Gavresi; Anastasia Litina; Georgios Tsiachtsiras
  19. Global Monetary and Financial Spillovers: Evidence from a New Measure of Bundesbank Policy Shocks By James Cloyne; Patrick Hürtgen; Alan M. Taylor
  20. Classifying Exchange Rate Regimes: 20 Years Later By Eduardo Levy-Yeyati; Federico Sturzenegger
  21. National Polls, Local Preferences and Voters’ Behaviour : Evidence from the UK General Elections By Alabrese, Eleanora
  22. Railways and Roadways to Trust By Despina Gavresi; Anastasia Litina; George Tsiachtsiras
  23. Returns to Education in Greece: Evidence from the 1977 Labor Market Survey Using the Greek Civil War as an Instrument By Patrinos, Harry A.
  24. Losing the inflation anchor By Reis, Ricardo
  25. Marriage, Divorce and Mutual Indebtedness. Perspectives from Tajikistan By Juliette Cleuziou; Caroline Dufy
  26. Dynamics of First-Time Patenting Firms By Øivind Anti Nilsen; Arvid Raknerud
  27. Advances in the Economic Theory of Cultural Transmission By Alberto Bisin; Thierry Verdier
  28. Gulf Economic Update, August 2021 By World Bank Group
  29. The impact of risk cycles on business cycles: a historical view By Jón Daníelsson; Marcela Valenzuela; Ilknur Zer
  30. L'adaptation entre la production et l'emploi de la main d'oeuvre dans l'industrie française (1949-1966) By Pierre Dussol

  1. By: Batiz-Lazo, Bernardo; Martínez-Rodríguez, Susana
    Abstract: This article analyzes a previously unexplored register of Spanish banks’ marketing material to document changes in the access of large numbers of women to the retail banking sector. In 1949 the Franco dictatorship deployed a Censorship Bureau to control and supervise all retail bank marketing. Initially, this office was part of the Finance Ministry but in 1962 it was relocated to the central bank. Examination of the surviving printed material allows us to map a shift in banks' strategies towards large-scale consumer banking and, indeed, the beginning of a new period that some have labelled ‘financialization’ and the extent to which it precedes or follows that of ‘bankarization’. We identify three ‘events’ or moments in this shift, in which women appear first as figureheads, second, the first steps to attract women as customers, and third, the direct recruitment of female customers. This work contributes to the history of marketing and the business history of banking, but also sheds light on the less explored beginnings of the financialization of everyday life.
    Keywords: banks, financialization, gender, retail finance, Spain, marital licence
    JEL: J12 J16 M3 N24 N84
    Date: 2022–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:114629&r=
  2. By: Ivo Maes (: Robert Triffin Chair, University of Louvain and ICHEC Brussels Management School)
    Abstract: With central banks becoming monetary authorities, research departments have become a core element of a modern central bank. Crucial elements of a central bank research department are contributing to monetary policymaking and sustaining a dialogue with the academic community. The importance of historical research (and central banks do not really make a difference between economic history and the history of economic thought) varies a lot. The historical curiosity of influential central bankers and the commemoration of anniversaries are important factors hereby. Historical research can allow central banks to take more distance and can help to avoid a “this time is different” view.
    Keywords: : central banking, economic research, economic history, history of thought.
    JEL: E42 E58 G28 N10
    Date: 2022–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:202209-413&r=
  3. By: Marc Flandreau (University of Pennsylvania)
    Abstract: Verdicts returned by modern courts of justice in the context of sovereign debt lawsuits have upheld a ratable (proportional) interpretation of so-called "pari passu" clauses in debt contracts which, literally, promise creditors they will be dealt with equitably. Such verdicts have given individual creditors the right to interfere with payments to others, in situation where the sovereign had failed to make proportional payments. Contract originalists argue that this interpretation of pari passu clauses has no historical foundation. Historically, they claim, pari passu clauses never granted individual creditors a unilateral right to block payments to other bondholders assenting to a government debt restructuring proposal. This article shows this claim is incorrect. Drawing on novel archival research, it argues that pari passu clauses find one potent historical origin in the operation of a now forgotten sovereign bankruptcy tribunal, the London stock exchange. Under the law of the stock exchange, departure from ratable payments did create a unilateral right for individual creditors to interfere with sovereign debt discharges. In fact, ratable distributions provided the touchstone for the stock exchange sanctioned sovereign debt discharge system. What is more, sophisticated contract drafters availed themselves of the logic. The result was a weaponization of pari passu clauses, and their inscription into sovereign debt covenants in the 19th century. The article concludes that the modern debate on the role of clauses in sovereign debt contracts cannot be held without thorough reconsideration of the history of sovereign bankruptcy.
    Keywords: Sovereign debt, pari passu clauses, London stock exchange laws, history of sovereign bankruptcy.
    JEL: N20 N23 N24 N43 N44
    Date: 2022–06–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp186&r=
  4. By: Antonie, Luiza; Inwood, Kris; Minns, Chris; Summerfield, Fraser
    Abstract: This article uses new linked full-count census data for Canada to document intergenerational occupational mobility from 1871 to1901. We find significant differences between Canadian regions and language groups, with linguistic minorities experiencing notably lower rates of intergenerational mobility. International comparisons place Canada midway between other economies in the Americas and the most mobile European societies. Decompositions of overall mobility show that the Canadian experience shared the New World feature of high mobility from manual occupations, but also the Old World feature of greater persistence in white collar jobs.
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2022–04–19
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:116602&r=
  5. By: Julio Martinez-Galarraga (Universitat de Barcelona); Marc Prat (Universitat de Barcelona)
    Abstract: This paper analyses economic inequality in Catalonia in the early 18th century using the information contained in cadastral tax records. The data set includes 2,617 male taxpayers distributed across 17 towns in inland Catalonia. Our findings show that income inequality in the 1720s was lower in Catalonia than in other Western European societies, but very close to other parts of Iberia. We take advantage of the wealth of information provided by the cadastre to study economic inequality in greater depth in a pre-industrial society by looking at the different sources of income, income groups and occupations. We find that the towns with a noteworthy presence of proto-industrial activities, measured by the number of textile artisans, were less unequal. Lastly, we explore the effect of proto-industrial wool specialization on levels of inequality and suggest channels that would explain the identified effect.
    Keywords: Income inequality, cadastre, Catalonia, proto-industrialization.
    JEL: N33 N63 N93 O15
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ewp:wpaper:430web&r=
  6. By: Yao Chen (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Nuno Palma (University of Manchester); Felix Ward (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
    Abstract: We estimate the contribution of the American precious metal windfall to West Europe’s growth performance in the early modern period. The exogenous nature of American money arrivals allows for identification of monetary effects. We find that more than half of West Europe’s growth can be attributed to American precious metals, whose arrival promoted trade intensification and capital formation. Our findings place West Europe’s second-stage receivers in a particularly fortunate goldilocks zone that enjoyed monetary injections, while being insulated against the transport-loss induced financial crises that caused persistent damage to first-stage receiver Spain.
    Keywords: Money non-neutrality, Great Divergence, Little Divergence, Smithian growth, market integration
    JEL: E51 F40 N10
    Date: 2022–09–16
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:220063&r=
  7. By: Batinti, Alberto; Costa-Font, Joan; J. Hatton, Timothy
    Abstract: We study the effect of the spread of democracy on population health in 15 European countries since the middle of the 19th century, and more specifically the average height of adult males by five-year birth cohort, and we estimate the effect of transitions to democracy using within-country variation. We find that the advent of democracy increased average height by about 0.7 cm. When we also account for the extension of the franchise to women, this increases to 1 cm or about 9% of the total increase in height of birth cohorts from the 1870s to the 1970s. Intervening mechanisms include reduced inequality and increased expenditure on social and health services. Our results are robust to a wide range of econometric tests.
    Keywords: height; democracy; transition; voting rights; franchise; inequality; political contestation; health services
    JEL: H10 J18
    Date: 2022–01–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111606&r=
  8. By: Udale, Charles
    Abstract: We know the policy of quarantining plague victims and their families together within their households entailed considerable costs and controversy in early modern Europe. Less clear is the extent to which the authorities implemented the policy in the face of this. This paper presents a novel approach to the measurement of enforcement which relies on linking deceased individuals listed in parish registers into household groups and then measuring changes in within-household mortality between parishes and epidemics. This provides a more complete assessment of the scale of implementation than would be possible using documentary sources alone. Measuring within-household mortality allows us to understand patterns of quarantine enforcement in settlements across early modern Europe. Here the focus is restricted to three epidemics that occurred in Bristol – one of England's most populous and prosperous cities. The analysis reveals household quarantine was enforced in 1603–4 with unprecedented vigour. The effects of quarantine are particularly pronounced in the affluent parishes where elite residence was highest. Greater evidence for enforcement is explained by greater elite oversight and control, as well as their desire to protect their own households. The scale of the impact is shocking. Household quarantine could double within household mortality.
    Keywords: early modern Bristol; early modern England; lockdown; plague; quarantine; Wiley deal
    JEL: N33
    Date: 2022–07–14
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:115746&r=
  9. By: Antonella Bandiera; Lelys I. Dinarte Diaz; Juan Miguel Jimenez; Sandra V. Rozo; Maria Micaela Sviatschi
    Abstract: How does territorial control by non-state actors affect long-term development? We investigate the economic, social, and political consequences of temporary territorial control by guerrillas during the Salvadoran Civil War. During this period, these guerrillas displaced state authorities and promoted the creation of self-governing institutions that were highly representative of local community values and showed open distrust of the state and elites. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design, we show that areas exposed to guerrilla control have experienced worse economic outcomes over the last 20 years relative to areas adjacent to these locations that were controlled by the formal state. Our results suggest that informal participatory institutions in guerrilla-controlled areas led to the persistence of land fragmentation and disengagement with the government. We argue that when non-state actors develop governance institutions as an alternative to the state, it can lead to negative effects on development through persistent norms of distrust towards out-groups, even after they relinquish control.
    JEL: N3 O10
    Date: 2022–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30488&r=
  10. By: Claude Diebolt (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Magali Jaoul-Grammare (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Faustine Perrin (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: L'objectif de cet article est d'étudier les liens entre le financement de l'instruction primaire, la scolarisation et la croissance économique en France au XIXe siècle. Pour ce faire, nous utilisons des informations sur les financements alloués par l'État, les départements, les communes, et les ménages sur la période 1820-1913. Pour mener notre analyse, nous procédons en deux étapes. Tout d'abord, nous analysons l'évolution des différents types de financement dans le temps et nous nous appuyons sur la méthodologie des points atypiques pour détecter l'existence d'éventuelles ruptures dans les séries. Ensuite, nous étudions les relations de causalité entre les différents types de financement, le nombre d'enfants scolarisés dans l'instruction primaire et le produit intérieur brut. Au cours de la période étudiée, nos résultats confirment que la scolarisation de masse est d'abord portée par la volonté politique avant de s'expliquer par l'accroissement des richesses disponibles dans l'économie.
    Keywords: instruction primaire,financement,XIXe siècle,France
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03778302&r=
  11. By: Brahim Gaies (IPAG Business School)
    Abstract: After the global financial crisis of 2008, the rise of nationalism, the Sino-American trade war and the Covid-19 pandemic, questioning the merits of financial globalization and liberalization policies has been put on the agenda. But is financial globalization a modern political construct following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s, meaning that it can be reformed and even reversed? Or is it the result of a process that began in antiquity and is therefore difficult, if not impossible, to reverse? This paper aims to answer these questions using the historical method in the social sciences.
    Abstract: Après la crise financière de 2008, la montée des nationalismes dans le monde, la guerre commerciale sino-américaine et la pandémie de Covid-19, la remise en question des bien-fondés de la globalisation financière et des politiques de libéralisation qui en découlent a été mise à l'ordre du jour. Mais la globalisation financière n'est-elle que le produit de l'effondrement du système de Bretton Woods à partir des années 1970, et à ce titre constitue-t-elle une construction politique moderne réformable et même réversible, ou bien est-elle issue d'une marche amorcée dès l'antiquité et, pour ainsi dire, coextensive aux sociétés humaines, si bien qu'il serait difficile, voire impossible de l'endiguer ? Cet article vise à apporter quelques éléments de réponse à cette question, en adoptant la méthode historique appliquée aux sciences sociales.
    Keywords: financial capitalism,financial crisis,multinational companies,deglobalization,capitalisme financier,crises financières,multinationales,déglobalisation, Covid-19
    Date: 2021–12–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03767392&r=
  12. By: Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Daniel Sanches
    Abstract: The gold standard emerged as the international monetary system by the end of the 19th century. We formally study its properties in a micro-founded model and find that the scarcity of the world gold stock not only results in a suboptimal output of goods that are purchased with money but also subjects the domestic economy of a country to external shocks. The creation of inside money in the form of private credit instruments adds to the money supply, usually resulting in a Pareto improvement, but opens the door to the international transmission of banking crises. These properties of the gold standard can explain the limited adherence by peripheral countries because of the potential risks to their economies. We argue that the gold standard can be sustainable at the core but not at the periphery.
    JEL: E42 E58 G21
    Date: 2022–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30457&r=
  13. By: Shuichiro Nishioka (West Virginia University, Department of Economics); Eric Olson (The University of Tulsa)
    Abstract: The 1974 trade act substantially increased the executive branch's authority in trade negotiations through the granting of fast-track and Section 301 authority. This paper evaluates the effect on U.S. voting behavior resulting from trade with Japan over 1976-1992 time period after the act was passed. To capture U.S. trade exposures to Japan, we develop the Bartik index from Autor et al (2013) for import competition with Japan and show that local exposure to import competition had statistically significant negative impacts on Republican presidential candidates over the 1976-1984 period. Although the second Reagan administration used Section 301 to open Japan's markets and Japanese firms shifted production to the United States, job-creation effects of exports and foreign direct investment did not have any influence on voting outcomes.
    Keywords: Trade exposure, U.S. trade with Japan in the 1980s, U.S. presidential elections
    JEL: F13 P26 P33 R13
    Date: 2022–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wvu:wpaper:22-04&r=
  14. By: Marco Martinez
    Abstract: This paper quantitatively assesses to what extent signatures in marriage certificates can inform about literacy rates in pre-industrial states. The direct estimates are based on a novel and balanced random sample of marriage certificates for pre-unification Italy in 1815. Such figures are compared to all alternative sources available for close years, including direct and indirect approaches who focused on selected areas of Italy. The new empirical methodology is as important as the results found with it. Two main findings emerge. First, marriage certificates can accurately measure literacy rates in preindustrial Italy, but only when accompanied by rigorous sampling procedures. Indeed, the proposed empirical approach allows to go from local to aggregate estimates that generally are in line with other estimates for the period, and can be scaled up or applied in other contexts. Second, North vs Centre-South divides in 1815 are lower than previously suggested. This supports the hypothesis that French reforms and later restoration governments triggered a process of widening North-South literacy divides.
    Keywords: Literacy rates; random sampling; marriage certificates; human capital.
    Date: 2022–10–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2022/28&r=
  15. By: Leonor Freire Costa; António Henriques; Nuno Palma
    Abstract: We provide a blueprint for the construction of historical state capacity measures for premodern states, which has several advantages over the state of the art. First, we argue that nominal GDP is the best deflator for state revenues. Second, expenditure patterns have to be considered in order to assess the changing state capacity. Third, we argue that local-level revenues matter when establishing state capacity, even if their overall contribution appears small. As an application, we tackle the controversial case of Portugal (1367–1844) and show that the country had a relatively high fiscal capacity and its state capacity increased over time as military expenses rose, whereas redistribution favoring the elites and the royal household decreased. This means that state capacity was not an issue in Portugal’s dismal economic performance.
    Keywords: state capacity; fiscal capacity; premodern economic growth; Portugal
    JEL: H20 N43 O23
    Date: 2022–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:man:sespap:2208&r=
  16. By: Timur Natkhov; William Pyle
    Abstract: Decades of investment decisions by central planners left communist societies with structures of production ill-prepared for competitive markets. Their vulnerability to liberalization, however, varied across space. Similar to the effects identified in the “China shock” literature, we hypothesize that post-market-shock outcomes will reflect pre-market-shock structures of production. Tracking voting outcomes at the district level in Russia’s presidential elections, we document asymmetric reactions to the liberalization of markets in 1992. Electoral support for the pro-market incumbent declined most in areas with structural inheritances that made them most vulnerable to reforms. This finding sheds new light on an old debate about the importance of “initial conditions” (as opposed to policies) to the trajectories of post-communist societies.
    Keywords: industrial structure, transition economy, voting, Russia
    JEL: N33 N53 I15 O15
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9929&r=
  17. By: Mehdi El Herradi (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Aurélien Leroy (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: How do banking crises affect rich, middle-class and poor households? This paper quantifies the distributional implications of banking crises for a panel of 132 economies over the 1970–2017 period. We rely on different empirical settings, including an instrumental variable approach, that exploit the geographical diffusion of banking crises across borders. Our results show that banking crises systematically reduce the income share of rich households and positively affect middle-class households. We also find that income inequality increases during periods preceding the occurrence of a banking crisis.
    Keywords: Banking crises,income distribution,inequality
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03770620&r=
  18. By: Despina Gavresi (University of Ioannina, Department of Economics, Ioannina, Greece.); Anastasia Litina (University of Macedonia, Department of Economics, Thessaloniki, Greece.); Georgios Tsiachtsiras (University of Bath, School of Management, United Kingdom.)
    Abstract: This paper explores the interplay between the extent of transportation infrastructure and various aspects of trust (interpersonal and political trust). We test our hypothesis by exploiting cross regional variation during the period 2002-2019. We focus on two measures of infrastructure, i.e., the length of railroads and railways in European regions. Interpersonal and political trust variables are derived from individual level data available in nine consecutive rounds of the European Social Survey. We document that individuals who live in regions with extended infrastructure network manifest higher trust both in people and political institutions. To mitigate endogeneity concerns, we extend our analysis to a sample of international and inter-regional immigrants. We further adopt an IV approach, where we use as an instrument the pre-existing Roman roads networks. The results from all three speciï¬ cations are aligned to those of the benchmark analysis. We explore access to differential levels of trust as one of the underlying mechanisms behind our results. Relying on an expanding literature we hypothesize that the effect of infrastructure on trust operates directly via the degree of exposure to new people and ideas, as well as indirectly, via the effect of infrastructure on the structure of the economy.
    Keywords: Motorways, Railroads, Political trust, Interpersonal trust. JEL classification: Z10, P48, R10, R40.
    Date: 2022–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202214&r=
  19. By: James Cloyne; Patrick Hürtgen; Alan M. Taylor
    Abstract: Identifying exogenous variation in monetary policy is crucial for investigating central bank policy transmission. Using newly-collected archival real-time data utilized by the Central Bank Council of the German Bundesbank, we identify unexpected changes in German monetary policy from 580 policy meetings between 1974 and 1998. German monetary policy shocks produce conventional effects on the German domestic economy: activity, prices, and credit decline significantly following a monetary contraction. But given Germany’s central role in the European Monetary System (EMS), we can also shed light on debates about the international transmission of monetary policy and the relative importance of the U.S. Federal Reserve for the global cycle during these years. We find that Bundesbank policy spillovers were much stronger in major EMS economies with Deutschmark pegs than in non-EMS economies with floating exchange rates. Furthermore, compared to monetary spillovers from the U.S., German spillovers were comparable or even larger in magnitude for both pegs and floats.
    JEL: E32 E52 F42 F44
    Date: 2022–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30485&r=
  20. By: Eduardo Levy-Yeyati (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella); Federico Sturzenegger (Universidad de San Andrés/ Harvard Kennedy School)
    Abstract: Twenty years ago, in Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger (2001) we proposed a de facto classification of exchange rate regimes which contrasted with the –at the time, standard– de jure classifications based on self-reporting by monetary authorities. This paper extends our original classification through 2021 more than doubling the number of country-year observations (from 3335 to 8491). It also introduces an updating methodology to keep the classification updated in real time. Also, based on this extension, the paperdocuments the main stylized facts about exchange rate regime choices in the past two decades, which shows a jump in the prevalence of flexible regimes in the early 2000s and a gradual convergence between de jure and de facto groupings over time.
    Keywords: Exchange rate regimes; fear of floating; fear of appreciation
    JEL: F30 F33
    Date: 2022–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:182&r=
  21. By: Alabrese, Eleanora (University of Warwick)
    Abstract: A central challenge for social scientists consists in explaining why people vote and what are the consequences of their behaviour. Exploiting variation in national opinion polls across UK general elections, and in the degree of safeness of British constituencies over time, I provide evidence of a significant impact of pre-election polls on electoral outcomes and shed light on a novel mechanism. I find that opinion polls affect voters’ behaviour via their interaction with the recent electoral history of a constituency : first, turnout decreases when the polls predict non-competitive elections, and this effect is stronger in safe seats. Second, the composition of local vote shares and parties’ performance is also impacted by anticipated election closeness and the effects vary heterogeneously depending on whether polls predictions are aligned with the past electoral outcomes of a constituency. Finally, the causal impact on voters’ participation is confirmed with consistent individual-level evidence.
    Keywords: Opinion Polls ; Closeness ; Voters Behaviour ; First-past-the-post ; UK general elections JEL Codes: D72 ; P16
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1426&r=
  22. By: Despina Gavresi (University of Ioannina); Anastasia Litina (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia); George Tsiachtsiras (University of Bath, School of Management)
    Abstract: This paper explores the interplay between the extent of transportation infrastructure and various aspects of trust (interpersonal and political trust). We test our hypothesis by exploiting cross regional variation during the period 2002-2019. We focus on two measures of infrastructure, i.e., the length of railroads and railways in European regions. Interpersonal and political trust variables are derived from individual level data available in nine consecutive rounds of the European Social Survey. We document that individuals who live in regions with extended infrastructure network manifest higher trust both in people and political institutions. To mitigate endogeneity concerns, we extend our analysis to a sample of international and inter-regional immigrants. We further adopt an IV approach, where we use as an instrument the pre-existing Roman roads networks. The results from all three specifications are aligned to those of the benchmark analysis. We explore access to differential levels of trust as one of the underlying mechanisms behind our results. Relying on an expanding literature we hypothesize that the effect of infrastructure on trust operates directly via the degree of exposure to new people and ideas, as well as indirectly, via the effect of infrastructure on the structure of the economy.
    Keywords: motorways, railroads, political trust, interpersonal trust
    JEL: Z10 P48 R10 R40
    Date: 2022–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2022_08&r=
  23. By: Patrinos, Harry A. (World Bank)
    Abstract: Greece experienced a devastating civil war in 1946-1949. This led to many deaths, economic losses, and severe reductions in schooling expenditures and attendance. Using an instrumental variables approach, we estimate the 1977 returns to schooling, showing that for those affected by the civil war, the returns to schooling are higher than the corresponding least squares estimate.
    Keywords: returns to education, instrumental variables, civil war, Greece
    JEL: I21 J31
    Date: 2022–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15541&r=
  24. By: Reis, Ricardo
    Abstract: Inflation has an anchor in people’s expectations of what its long-run value will be. If expectations persistently change, then the anchor is adrift; if they differ from the central bank’s target, the anchor is lost. This paper uses data on expectations from market prices, from professional surveys, and from the cross-sectional distribution of household surveys to measure shifts in this anchor. Its main application is to the US Great Inflation. The data suggests that the anchor started drifting as early as 1967 and that this could have been spotted well before policymakers did. Using this approach on expectations data from Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, the US in the 1970s, and the US in 2021, confirms their usefulness to measure the inflation anchor in real time.
    JEL: J1 N0
    Date: 2022–06–24
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:112462&r=
  25. By: Juliette Cleuziou (LADEC - Laboratoire d’Anthropologie Des Enjeux Contemporains - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Caroline Dufy (CED - Centre Émile Durkheim - IEP Bordeaux - Sciences Po Bordeaux - Institut d'études politiques de Bordeaux - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This article offers an original insight on the gift economy in Tajikistan. As long shown by the literature, ceremonial expenditures sustain social status and convey moral obligations and social order. In this context, we find that marriage breakdown sheds a new light on social cohesion and the sense of indebtedness in Tajik society. In the case studies provided, the material and symbolic meaning of marital breakdown is analysed from the perspective of divorced women. In the context of high ritual expenditure, we ask what are the effects of divorce (and more broadly, demarriage) on women's perceptions of gender and marital roles in a context of economic crisis and mass male migration to Russia. Specifically, we are interested in the language of debt that shapes women's discourses about their former marital bond, and how it disrupts the principles of the gift economy that derive from traditional gender and generational roles. In particular, the notion of debt allows divorced women to condemn their ex-in-laws' failings towards them. The end of the marriage opens the way for the denunciation of broken promises, the expression of unfulfilled expectations and the breaking of marital, gender and collective obligations towards the spouse. While it brings with it a demand for recognition and social justice, it also expresses the contradictory tensions that run through society, its norms and the traditional social roles associated with conjugality.
    Keywords: Tajikistan,Central Asia,Marriage,Divorce,Debt,Gender relations
    Date: 2022–07–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03774872&r=
  26. By: Øivind Anti Nilsen; Arvid Raknerud
    Abstract: This paper investigates firm dynamics in the period before, during, and after an event consisting of a first published patent application. The analysis is based on patent data from the Norwegian Industrial Property Office merged with data from several business registers covering a period of almost 20 years. We apply an event study design and use matching to control for confounding factors. The first patent application by a young firm is associated with significant growth in employment, output, assets and public research funding. Moreover, our results indicate that economic activity starts to increase at least three years ahead of the first patent application. However, we find no evidence of additional firm growth after patent approval for successful applicants. Our findings indicate that the existence of a properly functioning patenting system supports innovation activities, especially early in the life cycle of firms.
    Keywords: patenting, firm performance, panel data, event study design
    JEL: C33 D22 O34
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9927&r=
  27. By: Alberto Bisin; Thierry Verdier
    Abstract: In this paper we survey recent advances in the economic theory of cultural transmission. We highlight three main themes on which the literature has made great progress in the last ten years: the domain of traits subject to cultural transmission, the micro-foundations for the technology of transmission, and feedback effects between culture, institutions, and various socio-economic environments. We conclude suggesting interesting areas for future research.
    JEL: O10 P16 P48
    Date: 2022–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30466&r=
  28. By: World Bank Group
    Keywords: Health, Nutrition and Population - Disease Control & Prevention Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Commodities Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Growth
    Date: 2021–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:36041&r=
  29. By: Jón Daníelsson; Marcela Valenzuela; Ilknur Zer
    Abstract: We investigate the effects of financial risk cycles on business cycles, using a panel spanning 73 countries since 1900. Agents use a Bayesian learning model to form their beliefs on risk. We construct a proxy of these beliefs and show that perceived low risk encourages risk-taking, augmenting growth at the cost of accumulating financial vulnerabilities, and therefore, a reversal in growth follows. The reversal is particularly pronounced when the low-risk environment persists and credit growth is excessive. Global-risk cycles have a stronger effect on growth than local-risk cycles via their impact on capital flows, investment, and debt-issuer quality.
    Keywords: Stock market volatility; Uncertainty; Monetary policy independence; Financial instability; Risk-taking; Global financial cycles
    JEL: F30 F44 G15 G18 N10 N20
    Date: 2022–09–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1358&r=
  30. By: Pierre Dussol (LEST - Laboratoire d'économie et de sociologie du travail - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille 3)
    Keywords: Emploi,Durée du travail,Croissance économique,Productivité,Besoin de main d'oeuvre,Marché du travail,Industrie,France
    Date: 2022–09–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03770663&r=

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