nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2022‒10‒17
thirty papers chosen by

  1. Wealth and Its Distribution in Germany, 1895-2018 By Thilo N. H. Albers; Charlotte Bartels; Moritz Schularick
  2. An annual index of Irish industrial production, 1800-1913 By O'Rouke, Kevin; Lennard, Jason; Kenny, Seán
  3. Documenting Inter-personal Conflicts in Senegal during the First Quarter the 20th Century using Dispute Registries from native courts By Marazyan, Karine
  4. World Population Growth Revisited. 1960-2030 Some Preliminary Remarks By Enriqueta Camps
  5. Wars, Depression, and Fascism: Income Inequality in Italy, 1900-1950 By Maria Gomez Leon; Giacomo Gabbuti
  6. Wealth of Two Nations: The U.S. Racial Wealth Gap, 1860-2020 By Ellora Derenoncourt; Chi Hyun Kim; Moritz Kuhn; Moritz Schularick
  7. Regional Employment Polarization in a Time of Crisis: The case of Interwar Britain By Ivan Luzardo-Luna
  8. Solving the Longitude Puzzle: A Story of Clocks, Ships and Cities By Martina Miotto; Luigi Pascali
  9. Débats autour de la désindustrialisation française By Hubert BONIN
  10. 100 years of rising corporate concentration By Kwon, Spencer Y.; Ma, Yueran; Zimmermann, Kaspar
  11. Comprehensive Patent Data of the German Democratic Republic 1949-1990 — technical report and dataset overview By Ann Hipp; Michael Fritsch; Maria Greve; Jutta Günther; Marcel Lange; Christian Liutik; Beate Pfeifer; Mariia Shkolnykova; Michael Wyrwich
  12. The Start of Yugoslavia’s Disintegration: Where Borders Cut Commuting Spheres By Hoffstadt, Martin
  13. Long-Run Trends in Long-Maturity Real Rates 1311-2021 By Kenneth S. Rogoff; Barbara Rossi; Paul Schmelzing
  14. New evidence on wine in French international trade (1848–1913): Import discrimination as export quality promotion By Stéphane Bécuwe; Bertrand Blancheton; Samuel Maveyraud
  15. Temporal Patterns in Economics Research By Andrei Dubovik; Clemens Fiedler; Alexei Parakhonyak
  16. The risks of nation-building through military aid and intervention By Dimant, Eugen; Krieger, Tim; Meierrieks, Daniel
  17. Russian foreign trade after four months of war in Ukraine By Simola, Heli
  18. Testing explosive bubbles with time-varying volatility: The case of the Spanish public debt, 1850–2021 By Vicente Esteve; María A. Prats
  19. Wealth Inequality and Democracy By Sutirtha Bagchi; Matthew J. Fagerstrom
  20. Fostering the Diffusion of General Purpose Technologies: Evidence from the Licensing of the Transistor Patents By Nagler, Markus; Schnitzer, Monika; Watzinger, Martin
  21. Exchange Rate Synchronization for a set of Currencies from Different Monetary Areas By António Manuel Portugal Duarte; Nuno José Henriques Baetas da Silva
  22. Prenatal Sugar Consumption and Late-Life Human Capital and Health: Analyses Based on Postwar Rationing and Polygenic Scores By van den Berg, Gerard J.; von Hinke Kessler Scholder, Stephanie; Wang, R. Adele H.
  23. Entrepreneurship in the long-run: Empirical evidence and historical mechanisms By Michael Fritsch; Michael Wyrwich
  24. Manfred Deistler and the General Dynamic Factor Model Approach to the Analysis of High-Dimensional Time Series By Marc Hallin
  25. Fair Social Contracts and the Foundations of Large-Scale Collaboration By Beinhocker, Eric
  26. Life-cycle labour supply with human capital: Evidence for Spain By Antonio Cutanda; Juan A. Sanchis Llopis
  27. Export Boom and Re-Primarisation in Latin America (1994-2019): Determining Factors of Agri-Food Product Exports By Maria-Isabel Ayuda; Ignacio Belloc; Vicente Pinilla
  28. Labour supply responses to income tax changes in Spain. By Antonio Cutanda; Juan A. Sanchis
  29. Positional Segregation and Career Length in Major League Baseball in the 1990s By Johnny Ducking; Peter Groothuis
  30. China's Development Path: Government, Business, and Globalization in an Innovating Economy By Yin Li; William Lazonick

  1. By: Thilo N. H. Albers; Charlotte Bartels; Moritz Schularick
    Abstract: German history over the past 125 years has been turbulent. Marked by two world wars, revolutions and major regime changes, as well as a hyperinflation and three currency reforms, expropriations and territorial divisions, it provides unique insights into the role of country-specific shocks in shaping long-run wealth dynamics. This paper presents the first comprehensive study of wealth and its distribution in Germany since the 19th century. We combine tax and archival data, household surveys, historical national accounts, and rich lists to analyze the evolution of the German wealth distribution over the long run. We show that the top 1% wealth share has fallen by half, from close to 50% in 1895 to 27% today. Nearly all of this decline was the result of changes that occurred between 1914 and 1952. The interwar period and the wealth taxation in the aftermath of World War II stand out as the great equalizers in 20th century German history. After unification in 1990, two trends have left their mark on the German wealth distribution. Households at the top made substantial capital gains from rising business wealth while the middle-class had large capital gains in the housing market. The wealth share of the bottom 50% halved since 1990. Our findings speak to the importance of historical shocks to the distribution and valuations of existing wealth in explaining the evolution of the wealth distribution over the long run.
    Keywords: Wealth inequality, portfolio heterogeneity, saving, wealth taxation
    JEL: D31 E01 E21 H2 N3
    Date: 2022
  2. By: O'Rouke, Kevin; Lennard, Jason; Kenny, Seán
    Keywords: Wiley deal
    JEL: E01 N13 N14
    Date: 2022–09–12
  3. By: Marazyan, Karine
    Abstract: In the early 20th century, new litigation bodies, the so-called 'native courts', were created and managed by the French colonial administration to regulate relations between native people. The monitoring of court activity has generated high-frequency litigation data. Such data provide a unique opportunity to document interpersonal conflict in a context of colonial rule that is undergoing rapid transformation. This paper has three objectives: (i) describe the institutional framework allowing for the emergence of the data on which this research is based --Les Etats Récapitulatifs--; (ii) detail our method to compile time series of disputes arbitrated by native courts; (iii) describe certain trends in the dynamics of disputes arbitrated by native courts. We conclude by discussing how this database could be used to better understand the economic and political roots of interpersonal conflict.
    Keywords: conflict, justice, history of colonial institutions
    Date: 2022–09
  4. By: Enriqueta Camps
    Abstract: This paper wants to enlarge evidence presented in the exploratory article by Camps and Engerman, “World Population Growth: The Force of Recent Historical Trends”, Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 44:4, 2014. Before the worldwide epidemic impact on mortality caused by Covid 19, world population was growing at a fast track. By 2005-2010 United Nations authorities and the World Bank were regarding population growth vis-à-vis resource availability as an important economic problem in the mid run. The origin of this sort of ideas dates back at least to Malthus on population pressure, diminishing marginal returns of land, scarcity of calories and therefore increase of prices. Before the first industrial revolution only epidemics could threat population growth as to loosen pressure on economic resources. The situation in the period we want to study is very different. By the second half of the 20th century the main reason behind population growth was the great improvement of life expectancies. In OECD countries life expectancies nearly doubled during the 20th century. The overall world situation was one of convergence. All continents with the exception of Africa were improving their mortality conditions. But Camps and Engerman (2014) prove that these facts were counterbalanced in years 1960-2010 by a similar in intensity but opposite in direction trend of fertility. In all continents with the exception of Africa fertility was diminishing, converging to low levels, though with some delay with respect to mortality, causing the population explosion (demographic transition). A very significant variable when explaining fertility evolution is female’s education. One year more of education of mothers led to 0,33 less children per couple. Pandemics, different marriage patterns (polygamy), poverty and a different role of children for the family economy draw a different picture in African countries. In this paper we present further quantitative evidence on the impact of population growth, using population growth as an approximate proxy of the aggregated demand evolution at the world level, on prices and output as well as the population growth projections of the twenty first century.
    Keywords: world population growth, sustainability
    JEL: A11 A12 I15 J11 N3
    Date: 2022–06
  5. By: Maria Gomez Leon; Giacomo Gabbuti
    Abstract: This paper shows yearly estimates of income inequality in Italy from 1900 to 1950. By constructing dynamic social tables, we comprehensively assess inequality across all components of Italian society. In a context of declining inequality across Europe, interwar Italy reveals a singular trajectory with a rise in inequality during WW1, markedly reversed during 1918-1922, resumed after the March on Rome and with a further increase during WW2. While consolidating the reinterpretation of inequality in interwar Europe, by showing so far overlooked short-term distributive shocks in Italy, our findings confirm the regressive nature of Italian Fascism.
    Keywords: Fascist Italy; income inequality; interwar Europe; dynamic social tables.
    Date: 2022–09–22
  6. By: Ellora Derenoncourt; Chi Hyun Kim; Moritz Kuhn; Moritz Schularick
    Abstract: The racial wealth gap is the largest of the economic disparities between Black and white Americans, with a white-to-Black per capita wealth ratio of 6 to 1. It is also among the most persistent. In this paper, we construct the first continuous series on white-to-Black per capita wealth ratios from 1860 to 2020, drawing on historical census data, early state tax records, and historical waves of the Survey of Consumer Finances, among other sources. Incorporating these data into a parsimonious model of wealth accumulation for each racial group, we document the role played by initial conditions, income growth, savings behavior, and capital returns in the evolution of the gap. Given vastly different starting conditions under slavery, racial wealth convergence would remain a distant scenario, even if wealth-accumulating conditions had been equal across the two groups since Emancipation. Relative to this equal-conditions benchmark, we find that observed convergence has followed an even slower path over the last 150 years, with convergence stalling after 1950. Since the 1980s, the wealth gap has widened again as capital gains have predominantly benefited white households, and income convergence has stopped.
    Date: 2022–09
  7. By: Ivan Luzardo-Luna (University of Pennsylvania)
    Abstract: This article aims to identify the impact of regional employment polarization on labor frictions in a time of crisis and structural change by examining the case of interwar Britain. Using an original dataset from the regional returns of unemployment insurance administration, this article estimates the aggregate and regional Beveridge curve shifts, which allows the breakdown of labor frictions into spatial mismatching (interregional frictions) and frictions within regions (intraregional frictions). The latter were the main source of labor frictions during the interwar period, but the former significantly contributed to the mass unemployment observed in the Great Depression.
    Keywords: Unemployment, Spatial Mismatching, Beveridge Curve, Great Depression
    JEL: N12 J60 R11
    Date: 2022–09–26
  8. By: Martina Miotto; Luigi Pascali
    Abstract: In the 19th century, the process of European expansion led to unprecedented changes in the urban landscape outside of Europe, with the urban population moving towards the coast and tripling in size. We argue that the majority of these changes can be explained by a single innovation, the chronometer, which allowed European explorers and merchants to measure longitude at sea. We use high-resolution global data on climate, ship routes, and demography from 1750 to 1900 to investigate empirically (i) the role of the adoption of the marine chronometer in re-routing trans-oceanic navigation, and (ii) the impact of these changes on the distribution of cities and population across the globe. Our identification relies on the differential impact of the chronometer across trans-oceanic sailing routes.
    Keywords: longitude, chronometer, gravity, globalization, trade, development
    JEL: F1 F15 F43 R12 R4
    Date: 2022–03
  9. By: Hubert BONIN
    Abstract: This essay mobilises the critical studies of two historians and a public company manager who have constructed systems for analysing the causes of France's deindustrialisation since the turn of the 1980s. A review of the ten or so themes around which issues concerning the responsibilities of the state's economic apparatus, company managers or experts are articulated allows for discussions about a recent history, admittedly, but which benefits from two dozen testimonies.
    Keywords: Third industrial revolution, delocalisation, competitiveness, industrial decline, economic lucidity
    JEL: B15 B21 D22 F23 F61
    Date: 2022
  10. By: Kwon, Spencer Y.; Ma, Yueran; Zimmermann, Kaspar
    Abstract: We collect data on the size distribution of all U.S. corporate businesses for 100 years. We document that corporate concentration (e.g., asset share or sales share of the top 1%) has increased persistently over the past century. Rising concentration was stronger in manufacturing and mining before the 1970s, and stronger in services, retail, and wholesale after the 1970s. Furthermore, rising concentration in an industry aligns closely with investment intensity in research and development and information technology. Industries with higher increases in concentration also exhibit higher output growth. The long-run trends of rising corporate concentration indicate increasingly stronger economies of scale.
    Keywords: Corporate concentration,economies of scale
    JEL: E23 E01 N12
    Date: 2022
  11. By: Ann Hipp (University of Bremen, Germany); Michael Fritsch (Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany); Maria Greve (Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, and University of Groningen, The Netherlands); Jutta Günther (University of Bremen, Germany); Marcel Lange (University of Bremen, Germany); Christian Liutik (Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany); Beate Pfeifer (Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany); Mariia Shkolnykova (University of Bremen, Germany); Michael Wyrwich (Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, and University of Groningen, The Netherlands)
    Abstract: This paper documents the generation and the content of the Comprehensive Patent Database (CPDB) of the German Democratic Republic (GDR) (1949-1990), Version 1.1, which is freely available at GESIS The database contains all patents granted in the GDR and published by the Office of Inventions and Patents (AfEP, later: German Patent and Trade Mark Office/DPMA) in the period between 1 January 1939 (application before but granted in the GDR) and 29 June 2006 (application in but granted after the GDR). The core database covers the years 1950 to 1990 and contains 24 variables with manually cleaned and processed information on a total of 261,822 unique patents of the GDR. The data was collected and prepared for the purpose of research on innovation activity in the GDR.
    Keywords: Patent data, German Democratic Republic (GDR), invention
    JEL: O31 O33 P29 P39 B24
    Date: 2022–09–17
  12. By: Hoffstadt, Martin
    Abstract: Borders are often associated with low economic activity. A popular explanation for this phenomenon argues that borders cut market access. But as a growing amount of literature demonstrates that border effects persist after the removal of formal barriers, the forces behind low economic activity near borders remain unclear. This paper develops a new methodology to measure the market access of 16,596 settlements in the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1965, right before the hardening of Yugoslavia’s federal borders. Based on elevation, rivers, roads and the Dijkstra algorithm, this methodology identifies 4,682 settlements whose commuting spheres crossed Yugoslavia’s federal borders. Using panel data for the 1948-1991 period, a difference-in-differences estimation identifies that the settlements that lost access to their nearest town due to hardened federal borders experienced strong decline in population growth following the reforms. Robustness checks demonstrate that depopulation occurred when settlements lost access to towns of significant size. This effect appears regardless of ethnicity and history. Instead, depopulation occurred in the absence of a nearby alternative town in the same federal unit.
    Keywords: federal borders, market access, population growth, Yugoslavia
    JEL: H77 N44
    Date: 2022–09–16
  13. By: Kenneth S. Rogoff; Barbara Rossi; Paul Schmelzing
    Abstract: Taking advantage of key recent advances in long-run financial and economic data, this paper analyzes the statistical properties of global long-maturity real interest rates over the past seven centuries. In contrast to existing consensus, which has overwhelmingly concentrated on short samples for short-maturity rates, we find that long-maturity real interest rates across advanced economies are in fact trend stationary, and exhibit a persistent downward trend since the Renaissance. We investigate structural breaks in real interest rates over time using multiple statistical approaches, and find that only the Black Death and the "Trinity default" of 1557 appear as consistent inflection points in capital markets on both global and country levels. While a 1914 break is also suggested in multiple series (though less robust than existing literature would lead one to expect), the evidence for an inflection point in 1981 appears much weaker. We further examine trends in persistence, as well as commonly-invoked drivers of global real rates: exploiting significant data advances, we argue that historically, demographic and productivity factors appear to show no promising causal role, and in fact diverge from real interest rates over the long run.
    JEL: E4 F3 N20
    Date: 2022–09
  14. By: Stéphane Bécuwe (GREThA - Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Bertrand Blancheton (GREThA - Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Samuel Maveyraud (GREThA - Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Using an original dataset and theoretical framework, this paper offers a reinterpretation of the French wine international trade after external shocks during wine globalization based on trade policy. To maintain external position, particularly after phylloxera, French authorities promoted the development of Algerian vineyards by complex discrimination in tariffs. We highlight a negative relationship between discrimination in tariff policy and market share for wine trade partners to the detriment of Spain, Italy and Portugal and in favor of Algeria. By combining a counterfactual analysis and two theoretical models, we consider Algeria as a new competitor in an imperfect competition. Moreover, using data of wine quality at a desegregated level, we reveal that the control of imports by France allowed the diversification of the range of exports and maximisation of profits.
    Keywords: Wine,International trade,Tariff discrimination,Quality,External shocks
    Date: 2022
  15. By: Andrei Dubovik (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Clemens Fiedler; Alexei Parakhonyak (University of Oxford)
    Abstract: We study the duration of topics in economics research by looking at how much time passes between publication of textually similar papers. Using the corpus of abstracts of economics papers, as available from the RePEc dataset, we find that most papers match to papers from the same year, indicating strong common trends in the economics literature. Nevertheless, matches as long as 14 years apart are statistically significant, suggesting there are topics that last as long. Finally, the average duration of a match has dropped from around 4 years during 1990–2005 to about 1 year starting in 2010.
    JEL: A14 B20 Z13
    Date: 2022–09
  16. By: Dimant, Eugen; Krieger, Tim; Meierrieks, Daniel
    Abstract: This chapter discusses the role of military interventionism and aid in nation-building. We argue that (1) intervention strategies of foreign actors like the United States often unfavorably interact with local institutional settings, which (2) produces undesired outcomes not only for the target country of foreign intervention but also the intervening power. In line with these main findings, we also provide insights from our own empirical work (Dimant et al., 2022) showing that U.S. military aid has not been successful in enhancing military capacity in the recipient countries of military aid, but has rather contributed to exclusion and corruption. These unfavorable effects are, in turn, likely to produce anti-American resentment.
    Keywords: U.S. military aid,nation-building,interventionism,anti-American terrorism
    JEL: D74 F35 P45
    Date: 2022
  17. By: Simola, Heli
    Abstract: This brief examines the development of Russia's trade flows in the March-June period following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia ceased publication of foreign trade statistics after the war broke out, so we utilize the trade statistics of Russia's major trading partners. We find that Russia's imports declined substantially in the period with the country struggling to find alternative import sources. On the other hand, Russian export revenues increased post-invasion due to high commodity prices, the lag in transition periods for EU import restrictions and higher export volumes going to other markets. Russian industrial output reflects a shift in foreign trade. High-tech industries reliant on imported inputs contracted, while output remained robust for some export-oriented industries. The first months of war show sanctions took an increasing toll on the Russian economy, seriously eroding the country's long-term growth potential.
    Keywords: Russia,trade,sanctions
    Date: 2022
  18. By: Vicente Esteve (Universidad de Valencia and Universidad de Alcalá, Spain); María A. Prats (Universidad de Murcia, Spain and European Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science, UK)
    Abstract: In this paper the dynamics of the Spanish public debt-GDP ratio is analysed during the period 1850-2021. We use recent procedures to test for explosive bubbles in the presence under time-varying volatility (Harvey, Leybourne, Sollis and Taylor (2016), Harvey, Leybourne and Zu (2019, 2020), Kurozumi, Skorobotov and Tsarev (2022)) in order to test the explosive behavior of Spanish public debt over this long period. We extend previous analysis of Esteve and Prats (2022) where assume constant unconditional volatility in the underlying error process.
    Keywords: Public debt; Rational bubble; Explosive autoregression; Time-varying volatility; Right-tailed unit root testing
    JEL: C12 C22 E62 H62 H63
    Date: 2022–09
  19. By: Sutirtha Bagchi (Department of Economics, Villanova School of Business, Villanova University); Matthew J. Fagerstrom (Zell/Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania)
    Abstract: Scholars have studied the relationship between land inequality, income inequality, and democracy extensively, but have reached contradictory conclusions that have resulted from competing theories and methodologies. However, despite its importance, the effects of wealth inequality on democracy have not been examined empirically. We use a panel dataset of billionaire wealth from 1987 to 2012 to determine the impact of wealth inequality on the level of democracy. To measure democracy, we rely on Polity scores and the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) index. We find no empirical support for the hypothesis that overall wealth inequality or inherited wealth inequality has an impact on democracy. However, we find evidence that politically connected wealth inequality lowers V-Dem scores. Following Boix (2003), we investigate the hypothesis that capital mobility moderates the relationship between wealth inequality and democracy and find evidence that increased capital mobility mitigates the negative impact of politically connected wealth inequality on democracy.
    Keywords: Wealth Inequality; Democratization; Capital Mobility
    JEL: D31 H11 P48
    Date: 2022–09
  20. By: Nagler, Markus (FAU Erlangen-Nuremberg, CESifo and LASER); Schnitzer, Monika (LMU Munich, CESifo and CEPR); Watzinger, Martin (University of Muenster, CESifo and CEPR)
    Abstract: How do licensing and technology transfer influence the spread of General Purpose Technologies? To answer this question, we analyze the diffusion of the transistor, one of the most important technologies of our time. We show that the transistor diffusion and cross-technology spillovers increased dramatically after AT&T began licensing its transistor patents along with symposia to educate follow-on inventors in 1952. Both these symposia and the licensing of the patents itself played important roles in the diffusion. A subsequent reduction in royalties did not lead to further increases, suggesting that licensing and technology transfer were more important than specific royalty rates.
    Date: 2021–11–15
  21. By: António Manuel Portugal Duarte (University of Coimbra, Centre for Business and Economics Research, CeBER and Faculty of Economics); Nuno José Henriques Baetas da Silva (Ph.D. Student at Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra)
    Abstract: The degree of co-movement between currencies remains an important subject for interna- tional trade and monetary integration across countries. However, the economic literature has given limited answers about the directional relationships among currencies, and whether they have a leader or a driver. Using the Hodrick-Prescott lter and the wavelet methodology, this paper analyzes exchange rate synchronization for a set of twelve currencies belonging to dierent monetary areas covering the period between January 1980 and July 2020. The empirical results reveal that: i) the U.S. dollar still plays an essential role as a foreign exchange anchor; ii) the euro shows an out-of-phase relationship with the vast majority of currencies, including with the other European currencies; iii) the British pound seems to have departed signicantly from the European single currency; iv) the Brazilian real leads the Chinese yuan for most of the sample, and both currencies record great dissimilarities with the other currencies; v) in the absence of short-term foreign exchange market frictions, average bilateral distances between currencies are smaller, and vi) during the international nancial crisis, exchange rates became more synchro- nized
    Keywords: Exchange rate, co-movements, Hodrick-Prescott lter, wavelets, synchronization.
    JEL: E31 F41 F42 C51
    Date: 2022–03
  22. By: van den Berg, Gerard J. (University of Groningen); von Hinke Kessler Scholder, Stephanie (University of Bristol); Wang, R. Adele H. (University of Bristol)
    Abstract: Maternal sugar consumption in utero may have a variety of effects on offspring. We exploit the abolishment of the rationing of sweet confectionery in the UK on April 24, 1949, and its subsequent reintroduction some months later, in an era of otherwise uninterrupted rationing of confectionery (1942-1953), sugar (1940-1953) and many other foods, and we consider effects on late-life cardiovascular disease, BMI, height, type-2 diabetes and the intake of sugar, fat and carbohydrates, as well as cognitive outcomes and birth weight. We use individual-level data from the UK Biobank for cohorts born between April 1947–May 1952. We also explore whether one's genetic predisposition to the outcome can moderate the effects of prenatal sugar exposure. We find that prenatal exposure to derationing increases education and reduces BMI and sugar consumption at higher ages, in line with the "developmental origins" explanatory framework, and that the sugar effects are stronger for those who are genetically predisposed to sugar consumption.
    Keywords: nutrition, food consumption, gene-environment interplay, education, developmental origins
    JEL: I12 I18 I15 D45
    Date: 2022–09
  23. By: Michael Fritsch (Friedrich Schiller University Jena and Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), Germany); Michael Wyrwich (University of Groningen, The Netherlands and Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany)
    Abstract: We review and discuss research on the development of regional entrepreneurship over time. A particular focus is on the long-term persistence of regional levels of entrepreneurship, its explanation, and its meaning for economic development. What is the state of empirical research in this field, and what can explain the empirical findings? How are long-term trends of entrepreneurial activity linked to regional performance in terms of employment, gross domestic product (GDP), and innovative activity? Based on our assessments we derive conclusions for theory, policy implications, and avenues for further research.
    Keywords: Entrepreneurship, self-employment, regional growth, entrepreneurial culture, historical analysis
    JEL: L26 M13 O1 O33 R11
    Date: 2022–09–16
  24. By: Marc Hallin
    Abstract: For more than half a century, Manfred Deistler has been contributing to the construction of the rigorous theoretical foundations of the statistical analysis of time series and more general stochastic processes. Half a century of unremitting activity is not easily summarized in a few pages. In thisshort note, we chose to concentrate on a relatively little-known aspect of Manfred’s contribution which nevertheless had quite an impact on the development of one of the most powerful tools of contemporary time series and econometrics: dynamic factor models.
    Keywords: High-dimensional time series, General Dynamic Factor Models, spiked covariance model, reduced-rank process.
    Date: 2022–09
  25. By: Beinhocker, Eric
    Abstract: Large-scale collaborations with non-kin are a unique feature of human societies and foundational to human civilization. Individual relationships with collectives can be thought of as "social contracts". This article argues that perceptions of social contract fairness are essential for effective large-scale collaboration and that factors likely to create perceptions of fairness are subject to empirical analysis. Drawing on empirical behavioral and social science literature, the article proposes nine dimensions of social contract fairness. It further proposes that each dimension is distinct, imperfectly substitutable, and universal, although with individual and cultural variations in interpretations and preference weightings. Finally, the article applies the nine dimensions to the breakdown in political collaboration in the U.S. and argues that for large segments of the population, all nine dimensions of social contract fairness were broken during the mid-1970s-2010s. The article concludes with thoughts on social contract repair and further research into perceptions of social contract fairness.
    Keywords: Collaboration; fairness; social contracts; moral psychology; political populism
    Date: 2022–09
  26. By: Antonio Cutanda (Universidad de Valencia, Valencia, Spain ORCID number: 0000-0003-2066-4632); Juan A. Sanchis Llopis (Universidad de Valencia and ERICES, Valencia, Spain ORCID number: 0000-0001-9664-4668)
    Abstract: In this paper we provide the first estimate of the intertemporal substitution for leisure in Spain, accounting for the impact of human capital accumulation. This would allow uncovering whether the intertemporal labour supply of Spanish workers is affected by human capital. Our empirical strategy consists of estimating the equation for the intertemporal substitution of leisure with and without accounting for human capital, what allows to detect hypothetical estimation biases associated to omitting the impact of human capital. To that end, we build a pseudo-panel data set combining the Spanish Family Expenditure Survey and the Labour Survey over the period 1987-1997. While the model that ignores human capital accumulation provides an estimate of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution for leisure about 0.25, comparable to previously available estimates for Spain and other economies, the model with human capital provides an estimate about 0.5, what confirms the existence of a bias in the former estimates. Finally, this bias is larger for the younger cohorts than for the older ones.
    Keywords: Euler equation, Instrumental variables, Intertemporal Substitution for leisure, Panel data
    JEL: C33 C36 E24 J22
    Date: 2022–09
  27. By: Maria-Isabel Ayuda (Universidad de Zaragoza); Ignacio Belloc (Universidad de Zaragoza); Vicente Pinilla (Universidad de Zaragoza)
    Abstract: Since the mid-1990s, Latin American countries have substantially increased their agri-food exports, recovering a considerable part of their weight of overall global exports. The objective of this article is to explain the characteristics of the exporting boom experienced between 1994 and 2019 and its determining factors. To do this, we analyse the evolution of exports, their composition by product, the principal origins and destinations, the importance of the regional trade agreements and the behaviour of their prices. Furthermore, a series of gravity models are estimated, using the agri-food exports of nineteen Latin American countries to their 186 principal trading partners between 1994 and 2019. These models are estimated for total agri-food exports and for their breakdown into three product groups. Among the main determinants identified, our results suggest that external demand and the proliferation of regional trade agreements were the principal reasons of this export boom.
    Keywords: latin american international trade, agri-food industry, re-primarisation, regional trade agreements, gravity model
    JEL: F14 N76 Q17
    Date: 2022–09
  28. By: Antonio Cutanda (Universidad de Valencia, Valencia, Spain. ORCID number: 0000-0003-2066-4632); Juan A. Sanchis (Universidad de Valencia and ERICES, Valencia, Spain. ORCID number: 0000-0001-9664-4668)
    Abstract: This paper simulates the response of the Spanish labour supply to income tax changes using estimates for the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of leisure. These elasticities are calculated using a pseudo-panel built combining information of the EPA and of the ECPF, from 1987 to 1997. Our findings suggest that income tax changes can have an impact on Spanish labour supply, though the effects would be minor. We also uncover that this labour response differs across men and women, as well as between permanent and fixed-term contract workers. And that the responses differ depending on the age of the worker.
    Keywords: Labour Supply; Labour Income Tax; Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution of Leisure; Simulations
    JEL: E62 H24 H31 J22
    Date: 2022–09
  29. By: Johnny Ducking; Peter Groothuis
    Abstract: The racial makeup of Major League Baseball (MLB) has changed over time with the percentage of Blacks in the league peaking at eighteen percent in the late 1980s and then declining to only seven percent today. While the percentage of Hispanics has grown steadily over time reaching fifteen percent in 1990 and continuing to grow to twenty-eight percent today. To provide insight into both the decline in Black players and rise in Hispanic players, we use panel data from 1990 to 2004 to explore both the racial and ethnic positional segregation and career length of players. When it comes to career length, we find that foreign born Hispanic players have a higher probability of exit while Hispanic players who were born in the United States or the territory of Puerto Rico have no difference in the probability of exit than nonHispanic White players. In addition, we find that non-Hispanic Black players have no difference in the likelihood of exit than non-Hispanic White players when there are no controls for the position played. However, we do find that Black non-Hispanic players have a lower probability of exiting the league when position controls are included. Focusing on position, we find that nonHispanic Black players are most likely to be in the outfield, least likely to be a catcher, and outfielders have shorter careers than catchers. Lastly, we find that Hispanic players are most likely to be a shortstop and least likely to be a catcher Key Words: Discrimination, Training, Sports, Major League Baseball (MLB)
    Date: 2022
  30. By: Yin Li (Fudan University); William Lazonick (The Academic-Industry Research Network)
    Abstract: We employ the "social conditions of innovative enterprise" framework to analyze the key determinants of China's development path from the economic reforms of 1978 to the present. First, we focus on how government investments in human capabilities and physical infrastructure provided foundational support for the emergence of Chinese enterprises capable of technological learning. Second, we delve into the main modes by which Chinese firms engaged in technological learning from abroad -joint ventures with foreign multinationals, global value chains, and experienced high-tech returnees - that have contributed to industrial development in China. Third, we provide evidence on achievements in indigenous innovation - by which we mean improvements in national productive capabilities that build on learning from abroad and enable the innovating firms to engage in global competition - in the computer, automobile, communication - technology, and semiconductor - fabrication industries. Finally, we sketch out the implications of our approach for current debates on the role of innovation in China's development path as it continues to unfold.
    Keywords: China, investment, infrastructure, knowledge, indigenous innovation, globalization, development.
    JEL: D2 F2 F6 H1 H4 H5 H7 L1 L2 L5 L6 O1 O2 O3 O5 P1
    Date: 2022–08–11

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.