nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2022‒10‒03
twenty papers chosen by

  1. Antonio de Miguel: Informal Journalist of the Francoist Economy By Manuel Martin Rodriguez
  2. Historical Political Economy: What Is It? By Jeffrey Jenkins; Jared Rubin
  3. The Rise and Fall of Paper Money in Yuan China, 1260-1368 By Hanhui Guan; Nuno Palma; Meng Wu
  4. Internal Migration in the United States: Rates, Selection, and Destination Choice, 1850-1940 By Ariell Zimran
  5. Poor but tall. The height premium in the Canary Islands at the beginning of nutritional transition By José-Miguel Martínez Carrión; Begoña Candela-Martínez; Cándido Román-Cervantes; Ginés Díaz-Carmona
  6. Politically connected cities: Italy 1951-1991 By Guglielmo Barone; Guido de Blasio; Elena Gentili
  7. Influenza Mortality in French Regions after the Hong Kong Flu Pandemic By Florian Bonnet; Hippolyte d'Albis; Josselin Thuilliez
  8. The Department of Economics at the University of Chicago, 1947–1982 By Harberger, Arnold C.; Edwards, Sebastian
  9. Analisi storica delle rese agricole e la variabilità del clima: Analisi dei dati italiani sui cereali By Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano; Maccarone, Irene
  10. From Plantations to Prisons: The Race Gap in Incarceration After the Abolition of Slavery in the U.S. By Melissa Rubio-Ramos
  11. 800,000 Years of Climate Risk By Tobias Adrian; Nina Boyarchenko; Domenico Giannone; Ananthakrishnan Prasad; Dulani Seneviratne; Yanzhe Xiao
  12. Why Are Tobacco and Alcohol Control Policies So Different?–A Political-Economy Explanation By Zhihao Yu
  13. Four Waves of Feminism: A Blessing for Global Humanity By Mohajan, Haradhan
  14. Split Personalities: The Changing Nature of Technology Shocks* By Christoph Görtz; Christopher Gunn; Thomas Lubik
  16. Returns to Education in Greece: Evidence from the 1977 Labor Market Survey using the Greek Civil War as an Instrument By Patrinos, Harry Anthony
  17. Singular Secular Kuznets-like Period Realized Amid Industrial Transformation in US FDA Medical Devices: A Perspective on Growth from 1976 to 2020 By Iraj Daizadeh
  18. Do Rival Political Parties Enforce Government Efficiency? Canada, 1867-2021* By J. Stephen Ferris; Marcel-Cristian Voia
  19. The Shifting Attention of Political Leaders: Evidence from Two Centuries of Presidential Speeches By Oscar Calvo-Gonz\'alez; Axel Eizmendi; Germ\'an Reyes
  20. Ideas, idea processing, and TFP growth in the US: 1899 to 2019 By James, Kevin R.; Kotak, Akshay; Tsomocos, Dimitrios P.

  1. By: Manuel Martin Rodriguez (Universidad de Granada)
    Abstract: Antonio de Miguel appears in the foot notes of the Spanish economic history books as the author of one of the national income estimations prior to those made from 1944 by the Consejo de Economía Nacional. However, his work as a statistician and economist went much further. In particular, his work as an informal economic journalist during Franco’s dictatorship is of special interest. This study focuses on it, although it also considers the rest of his economic work.
    Keywords: De Miguel, Economy, Francoism
    JEL: B31
    Date: 2022–09
  2. By: Jeffrey Jenkins; Jared Rubin (Chapman University)
    Abstract: In this chapter, we define what historical political economy (HPE) is and is not, classify the major themes in the literature, assess the relative strengths and weaknesses of the literature, and point to future directions. We view HPE as social scientific inquiry which highlights political causes or consequences of historical issues. HPE is different from conventional political economy in the emphasis placed on historical processes and context. While we view HPE in the most inclusive manner reasonable, we define it to exclude works that are either solely of contemporary importance or use historical data without any historical context (e.g., long-run macroeconomic time series data). The future of HPE is bright, especially as more historical data from around the world become available via digitization. Consequently, the future frontier of the field likely falls outside of the US, which is the concern of a disproportionate amount of the current literature.
    Keywords: historical political economy, economics, political science, economic history, political history
    JEL: N00 P00
    Date: 2022
  3. By: Hanhui Guan; Nuno Palma; Meng Wu
    Abstract: Following the Mongol invasion of China, the Yuan (1260–1368) dynasty was the first political regime in history able to deploy paper money as the sole legal tender. Drawing on a new dataset on money issues, imperial grants, and prices, we show that a silver standard initially consolidated the Chinese currency market. However, persistent fiscal pressures eventually compelled rulers to ease the monetary standard, and a fiat standard was adopted, leading to inflation levels which doubled the price level in less than a decade. We show that military pressure generated fiscal demands which led to over-issuance, and we reject the role of excessive imperial grants in triggering the over-issue of money.
    Keywords: Paper money; silver standard; fiat money; Yuan China
    JEL: E42 N15 N45
    Date: 2022–09
  4. By: Ariell Zimran
    Abstract: I study the internal migration of native-born white men in the United States using linked census data covering all possible 10- and 20-year periods 1850--1940. Inter-county migration rates were stable over time. Selection into migration on the basis of occupational status was also largely stable and was neutral or slightly negative. But the orientation of internal migration changed, declining in distance, becoming more directed towards the west, and increasingly driving urbanization. These patterns changed in the 1930s as migration became less common and less urban oriented. These results provide a clearer understanding of historic US internal migration than previously possible.
    JEL: J61 N31 N32 O15
    Date: 2022–08
  5. By: José-Miguel Martínez Carrión; Begoña Candela-Martínez; Cándido Román-Cervantes; Ginés Díaz-Carmona
    Abstract: This article explores the beginnings of the nutritional transition in relation to height in male populations of the Canary Islands. With military recruitment data for the cohorts of 1860 and 1915, it shows the insular advantage (height premium) compared to the average height of the Spanish populations of the Iberian Peninsula. The secular trend for height was positive. The increase in height of 2.4 cm during the expansive cycle of the island economy was comparable to that of the Spanish average. It also highlights the biological variability of the heights, probably due to the genetic composition of the island populations, and that the average urban height was greater than the average rural height. Finally, we find that height inequality increased in years when average height decreased, especially between 1866-80 and 1900-1905. The Canarian height premium is analyzed based on the insular environment, climate, economic cycles, and diet.
    Keywords: Biological welfare, nutritional transition, Canary Islands, height premium, rural-urban height gap, inequality
    JEL: N33 N34 I15 I31
    Date: 2022–09
  6. By: Guglielmo Barone; Guido de Blasio; Elena Gentili
    Abstract: The paper estimates the political connection premium for Italian cities tracked during the second half of the 1900s, when the role of the state in the economy was very widespread. It leverages the peculiar features of the gridlocked political landscape in place between the end of World War II and the fall of the Berlin wall, during which most influential politicians remained in charge for a very long time. We focus on population, a well-celebrated proxy of local development in the long run, and compare connected cities - small areas surrounding birthplaces of both prime ministers and leaders of the parties in power - with unconnected municipalities that show, thanks to a propensity score matching procedure, very similar baseline characteristics, including lagged outcome. Our results indicate that politically connected cities gained a population premium of 7.4% between 1951 and 1991. When the connection ends, the difference in growth rate fades away. We also document that birthplaces of powerful politicians benefit from infrastructure investments, other ordinary and special-purpose public expenditures, and the location of plants by state-owned enterprises. The political connection favors industrialization, and raises employment and wages, but crowds out private entrepreneurship. The paper also illustrates that local communities repay the benefits gained through voting. Finally, it turns out that agglomeration economies in treated municipalities were not higher, thus suggesting that, if anything, place-based interventions linked to political connections have not been output-enhancing from a nationwide point of view.
    JEL: H50 R11 R12
    Date: 2022–09
  7. By: Florian Bonnet (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques); Hippolyte d'Albis (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Josselin Thuilliez (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Influenza mortality has dramatically decreased in France since the 1950s. Annual death rates peaked during two pandemics: the Asian flu (1956-57) and the Hong-Kong flu (1969-1970). This study's objective is to evaluate whether the second pandemic created a structural change in the dynamics of influenza mortality in France. We employ a new database on influenza mortality since 1950 at the subnational level (90 geographic areas) to estimate statistical models to find whether a structural change happened and to explain the differences in mortality rates across geographic areas. Influenza mortality increased between 1950 and 1969, and decreased from 1970 onward. The Hong-Kong flu is identified as the event of a structural break. After the break, geographical differences are less explained by regional characteristics such as income, density or aging ratio. Hong Kong flu was found to be associated with a major change in influenza mortality in France. Change in health practices and policies induced a decline in mortality that started in 1970, just after the pandemics. The health benefits are notably important for senior citizens and for the poorest regions.
    Date: 2022–08
  8. By: Harberger, Arnold C.; Edwards, Sebastian
    Abstract: This paper is about the Department of Economics at the University of Chicago, between 1947 and 1982. The paper has the form of a conversation between the two authors and covers issues such as the existence of a "Chicago School," the Department's governance, the personalities of some well-known members such as Frank Knight, Milton Friedman, and Robert Mundell, teaching, and the "Chicago boys." It also deals with the relation between members of the Department and those of other leading Schools.
    Keywords: Chicago School,Milton Friedman,monetarism,Frederik Hayek
    Date: 2021
  9. By: Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano; Maccarone, Irene
    Abstract: Climate change is impacting on the agricultural sector in several ways, and the effects on yields are generally among the most observable ones. Open fields crops, such as cereals, are very vulnerable to climate change. We study the historical data on yields of main cereals, namely barley, maize, oats, rice, rye, wheat, to conclude on the long run impacts of temperature and precipitation, over the period 1920-2015. Yields are found to be inversely correlated with temperatures and positively with precipitation, in both cases the relationships are non-linear, as expected.
    Keywords: Cambiamento climatico, cereali, detrendizzazione
    JEL: Q11 Q18 Q54
    Date: 2022–05–02
  10. By: Melissa Rubio-Ramos (University of Cologne)
    Abstract: This paper documents the emergence of a race gap in incarceration after the abolition of slavery in the U.S. Counties that relied more on slave labor incarcerated more African Americans, with no comparable effects for whites. An increase of slave reliance by 10% increases black incarceration rates by 1.8-per-1,000. This effect is associated with an increased use of prison labor. Consistent with this, I show that arrests increase before cotton harvesting and incarceration declines after exogenous shocks that decrease the demand for labor. I find no evidence for supply-side mechanisms, according to which former slaves commit more crimes.
    Keywords: Slavery, US, Incarceration
    JEL: J15 J47 K31 N31 N91 N92
    Date: 2022–08
  11. By: Tobias Adrian; Nina Boyarchenko; Domenico Giannone; Ananthakrishnan Prasad; Dulani Seneviratne; Yanzhe Xiao
    Abstract: We use a long history of global temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to estimate the conditional joint evolution of temperature and CO2 at a millennial frequency. We document three basic facts. First, the temperature–CO2 dynamics are non-linear, so that large deviations in either temperature or CO2 concentrations take a long time to correct–on the scale of multiple millennia. Second, the joint dynamics of temperature and CO2 concentrations exhibit multimodality around historical turning points in temperature and concentration cycles, so that prior to the start of cooling periods, there is a noticeable probability that temperature and CO2 concentrations may continue to increase. Finally, evaluating the future evolution of temperature and CO2 concentration conditional on alternative scenarios realizing, we document that, even conditional on the net-zero 2050 scenario, there remains a significant risk of elevated temperatures for at least a further five millennia.
    Keywords: climate change; multimodality; Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) scenarios
    JEL: Q54 C14 C53
    Date: 2022–09–01
  12. By: Zhihao Yu (Department of Economics, Carleton University)
    Abstract: This paper shows that the emergence (and the maintenance) of the striking different policy regimes applied to tobacco and alcohol in the U.S. and some other countries like the UK- that has increasingly puzzled many health policy experts- could be explained by their very different levels of industry concentration. The maintenance of the policy differences was further enhanced by the persistent government mass media anti-smoking campaigns, which ultimately contributed to the exclusion of the tobacco industry from direct nd formal involvement in the policy-making processes. The model can also explain the very different levels of tobacco industry' political contributions before and after 2002, as well as the lack of government effort of anti-smoking campaigns in Canada. Classification-D72; 118
    Keywords: tobacco and alcohol control policies, anti-smoking campaigns, government mass media campaigns, political contribution, lobbying
    Date: 2022–05–15
  13. By: Mohajan, Haradhan
    Abstract: This paper tries to analyze the development of waves of feminism. In the human civilization, “Feminism” is considered as a mass movement, which has commenced by women of all groups to remove all forms of feminist oppressions by men that are prevailing in a patriarchal society. The world has already experienced four waves of feminism that act against women’s abuse and oppression. The first wave of feminism arises in the United States and Europe during the 19th and early 20th centuries, and concerns with the achieving voting right, equal opportunities, and other legal rights of women. Second wave of feminism has initiated by both white and non-white women of Western countries as well as in developing countries, starts in the 1960s and ends in the 1990s. It works for equal education and employment opportunities, maternity leave, birth control and abortion rights, etc.; and fights against domestic violence issues, marital rape issues, sexual harassment and rape, etc. Third wave of feminism presents a dynamic critique to the previous feminist political trends, and extents from the 1990s to 2000s. In this movement, women find themselves as strong and rebellious, and working women in various occupations are not subjected to a sexist patriarchy. Fourth wave feminism starts around 2012, which offers a new feminism that depends on online social media, such as Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, etc. After the development of waves of feminism, various laws have been established in many countries of the world to support the participation of women in all activities of the society. This study takes attempts to discuss aspects of four waves of feminism elaborately.
    Keywords: Feminism, waves of movement, Black women, feminist oppressions, suffrage, social media
    JEL: B54 H0 I31 Z13
    Date: 2022–06–18
  14. By: Christoph Görtz (Department of Economics, University of Birmingham); Christopher Gunn (Department of Economics, Carleton University); Thomas Lubik (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the nature of technology shocks and documents important changes in their propagation over time. We employ a vector-autoregression and identify a shock that explains the maximum variation in total factor productivity (TFP) at a long finite horizon. This agnostic identification suggests that the dominant shock driving TFP is not necessarily a surprise shock, but exhibits features consistent with a shock that is anticipated or diffuses over time: GDP and consumption rise prior to any significant increase in TFP. We further find that shock transmission has changed over time. In a sample that ends in the mid 1980s, the shock triggers a decline in hours-worked and inventories, and a rise in credit spreads. In a post-Great Inflation sample the response of these variables is reversed and the shock generates an outright expansion in hours, inventories, GDP and consumption that is accompanied by a decline in credit spreads. We find that the importance of technology shocks as a major drive of aggregate fluctuations has increased over time — they play a dominant role in the second subsample, but much less so in the first. Classification-JEL, E2, E3
    Keywords: technology shocks, total factor productivity, business cycles, shock transmission.
    Date: 2022–06–12
  15. By: Pratik Kute (Phd candidate)
    Abstract: The relationship between India and Qatar has reached its jubilee celebrations. The year 2022 marks the completion of glorious 50 years of ties between the two countries. The relation is stronger than ever before and has deepened and strengthened over the years. Although the ties begun in the form of diplomatic and political engagements it slowly expanded in the realm of socio-economic aspects of its relations. India has one of the largest diaspora in Qatar and it plays an important role in the countries development and growth. Qatar has invested heavily in India looking at a promising future in the years to come. The gas trade between the two is pivotal to its energy ties. There are some points of contestations between two but both the countries are trying to overcome such issues of disagreement and move forward. As both the countries have reached about half a century of relationship, it is the right time to reflect on their past accomplishments, upcoming opportunities and some of the challenges they face to their ties. Key words: Counter-terrorism, Diaspora, Diplomacy, Energy, Tourism
    Date: 2022–03
  16. By: Patrinos, Harry Anthony
    Abstract: Greece experienced a devastating civil war in 1946-1949. This led to many deaths, economic losses, and severe reductions in schooling expenditures and attendance. Using an instrumental variables approach, we estimate the 1977 returns to schooling, showing that for those affected by the civil war, the returns to schooling are higher than the corresponding least squares estimate.
    Keywords: Returns to education,instrumental variables,civil war,Greece
    JEL: I21 J31
    Date: 2022
  17. By: Iraj Daizadeh
    Abstract: Introduction: Since inception, the US FDA has kept a robust record of regulated medical devices (MDs). Based on these data, can we gain insight into the innovation dynamics of the industry, including the potential for industrial transformation? Areas Covered: Using post-marketing notifications (PMNs) and approvals (PMAs) data, it is shown that from 1976 to 2020 the total composite (PMN+PMA) follows a single secular period: 20.5 years (applications peak-to-peak: 1992-2012; trough: 2002) and 26.5 years (registrations peak-to-peak: 1992-2019; trough: 2003), with a peak-to-trough relative percentage difference of 24% and 28%, respectively. Importantly, PMNs and PMAs independently present as an inverse structure. Expert Opinion: The evidence suggests: MD innovation is driven by a singular secular Kutnets-like cyclic phenomenon (independent of economic crises) derived from a fundamental shift from simple (PMNs) to complex (PMAs) MDs. Portentously, while the COVID-19 crisis may not affect the overriding dynamic, the anticipated yet significant (~25%) MD innovation drop (including PMN stagnation-to-decay) may be attenuated with attentive measures. Limitations of this approach and further thoughts complete this perspective.
    Date: 2022–07
  18. By: J. Stephen Ferris (Department of Economics, Carleton University); Marcel-Cristian Voia (Department of Economics, University of Orleans, France)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the role of inter-party rivalry in enhancing federal government efficiency in post-Confederation Canada. It tests and finds confirmation in the data for two hypotheses.The first is that the ex post size of the first versus second seat share marginis a useful metric of the effectiveness of political partiesinpolicingthe incumbent’sspendingbehaviouroverits period of tenure.The second is the hypothesis thatincumbent party shirking is decreased by greaterel ectoral contestability and contestability is related to the expected number of competing parties nonmonotonically. Classification
    Date: 2022–05–05
  19. By: Oscar Calvo-Gonz\'alez; Axel Eizmendi; Germ\'an Reyes
    Abstract: This paper proposes a novel methodology to measure political leaders' attention that combines text data with machine learning algorithms. We use this method on a hand-collected database of presidential ``state-of-the-union''-type speeches spanning ten countries and two centuries to study the determinants of political attention, its shifts over time, and its impacts on countries' outcomes. We find that presidential attention can be characterized by a compact set of topics whose relative importance remains stable over long periods. Contrary to presidential rhetoric, using a differences-in-differences design, we show that presidents' attention has precisely-estimated null effects on growth and other policy outcomes.
    Date: 2022–09
  20. By: James, Kevin R.; Kotak, Akshay; Tsomocos, Dimitrios P.
    Abstract: Innovativity – an economy's ability to produce the innovations that drive total factor productivity (TFP) growth – requires both ideas and the ability to process those ideas into new products and/or techniques. We model innovativity as a function of endogenous idea processing capability subject to an exogenous idea supply constraint and derive an empirical measure of innovativity that is independent of the TFP data itself. Using exogenous shocks and theoretical restrictions, we establish that: i) innovativity predicts the evolution of average TFP growth; ii) idea processing capability is the binding constraint on innovativity; and iii) average TFP growth declined after 1970 due to a constraints on idea processing capability, not idea supply.
    Keywords: Innovation; Financial Market Effectiveness; Endogenous Growth; Total Factor Productivity
    JEL: F3 G3
    Date: 2022–07–13

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