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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2022‒09‒12
43 papers chosen by |
| By: | Felix Roesel |
| Abstract: | I present the first database of historical local population figures for all Germany. The German Local Population Database (GPOP) includes total population in 1871, 1910, 1939, 1946, 1961, 1987, 1996, 2011, and 2019 for the universe of all German municipalities, counties, and states at consistent contemporary boundaries (31 December 2019). The database was hand-collected and assembled from more than 50 sources. The data reflect 150 years of regional development and disparities in Germany. For example, East and West Germany are heavily diverging in population since 1945; and the divide was not reversed but even doubled after reunification. |
| Keywords: | population, data, history, Germany, GPOP |
| JEL: | J11 R11 N33 N34 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9856&r= |
| By: | Lee J. Alston; Marie Christine Duggan; Julio Alberto Ramos Pastrana |
| Abstract: | We explore the long run impact of the Spanish missions on Native American outcomes in the early 20th century. Native communities who interacted with Spanish missionaries developed into enclaves which blended Catholicism with native culture. Some survived assaults on their property rights by Mexico and the US to persist as reservations into the 20th century. We found that having extensive contact with missions increased the percentage of Native Americans Catholic, decreased crime rates, and increased income from agriculture and overall earnings from wages. Surprisingly, we found no impact on education. |
| JEL: | N11 N12 O15 |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30251&r= |
| By: | Sascha O. Becker; Sharun Mukand; Ivan Yotzov |
| Abstract: | Persecution, pogroms, and genocide have plagued humanity for centuries, costing millions of lives and haunting survivors. Economists and economic historians have recently made new contributions to the understanding of these phenomena. We provide a novel conceptual framework which highlights the inter-relationship between the intensity of persecution and migration patterns across dozens of historical episodes. Using this framework as a lens, we survey the growing literature on the causes and consequences of persecution, pogroms, and genocide. Finally, we discuss gaps in the literature and take several tentative steps towards explaining the differences in survival rates of European Jews in the 20th century. |
| Keywords: | genocide, persecution, migration, immigration restrictions, exit or voice |
| JEL: | D74 F22 F51 N40 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9884&r= |
| By: | Cinnirella, Francesco (University of Bergamo); Hornung, Eric (University of Cologne); Koschnick, Julius (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Economic societies emerged during the late eighteenth-century. We argue that these institutions reduced the costs of accessing useful knowledge by adopting, producing, and diffusing new ideas. Combining location information for the universe of 3,300 members across active economic societies in Germany with those of patent holders and World’s Fair exhibitors, we show that regions with more members were more innovative in the late nineteenth-century. This long-lasting effect of societies arguably arose through agglomeration economies and localized knowledge spillovers. To support this claim, we provide evidence suggesting an immediate increase in manufacturing, an earlier establishment of vocational schools, and a higher density of highly skilled mechanical workers by mid-nineteenth century in regions with more members. We also show that regions with members from the same society had higher similarity in patenting, suggesting that social networks facilitated spatial knowledge diffusion and, to some extent, shaped the geography of innovation |
| Keywords: | Economic Societies ; Useful Knowledge ; Knowledge Diffusion ; Innovation ; Social Networks JEL Classification: N33 ; O33 ; O31 ; O43 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:632&r= |
| By: | Becker, Sascha O (Monash University and University of Warwick, CAGE, CEH@ANU, CEPR, CESifo, CReAM, ifo, IZA, ROA, and SoDaLabs); Mukand, Sharun (University of Warwick and CAGE.); Yotzov, Ivan (University of Warwick and CAGE) |
| Abstract: | Persecution, pogroms, and genocide have plagued humanity for centuries, costing millions of lives and haunting survivors. Economists and economic historians have recently made new contributions to the understanding of these phenomena. We provide a novel conceptual framework which highlights the inter-relationship between the intensity of persecution and migration patterns across dozens of historical episodes. Using this framework as a lens, we survey the growing literature on the causes and consequences of persecution, pogroms, and genocide. Finally, we discuss gaps in the literature and take several tentative steps towards explaining the differences in survival rates of European Jews in the 20th century JEL Codes: D74 ; F22 ; F51 ; N4 ; O15 ; R23 |
| Keywords: | Genocide ; Persecution ; Migration ; Immigration restrictions ; Exit or Voice |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1421&r= |
| By: | Jha, Saumitra (Stanford U) |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:4034&r= |
| By: | Gael M. Martin; David T. Frazier; Christian P. Robert |
| Abstract: | This paper takes the reader on a journey through the history of Bayesian computation, from the 18th century to the present day. Beginning with the one-dimensional integral first confronted by Bayes in 1763, we highlight the key contributions of: Laplace, Metropolis (and, importantly, his coauthors!), Hammersley and Handscomb, and Hastings, all of which set the foundations for the computational revolution in the late 20th century -- led, primarily, by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. A very short outline of 21st century computational methods -- including pseudo-marginal MCMC, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, sequential Monte Carlo, and the various `approximate' methods -- completes the paper. |
| Keywords: | History of Bayesian computation, Laplace approximation, Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, importance sampling, Markov chain Monte Carlo, pseudo-marginal methods, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, sequential Monte Carlo, approximate Bayesian methods |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msh:ebswps:2022-14&r= |
| By: | Thomas Palley |
| Abstract: | This paper explores dollar hegemony, emphasizing it is a fundamentally political economic phenomenon. Dollar hegemony rests on the economic, military, and international political power of the US and is manifested through market forces. The paper argues there have been two eras of dollar hegemony which were marked by different models. Dollar hegemony 1.0 corresponded to the Bretton Woods era (1946-1971). Dollar hegemony 2.0 corresponds to the Neoliberal era (1980-Today). The 1970s were an in-between decade of dollar distress during which dollar hegemony was reseeded. The deep foundation of both models is US power, but the two models have completely different economic operating systems. Dollar hegemony 1.0 rested on the trade and manufacturing dominance of the US after World War II. Dollar hegemony 2.0 rests on the Neoliberal reconstruction of the US and global economies which have made the US the center of global capitalism and the most attractive place to hold capital. It is a financial model and intrinsically connected to Neoliberalism. Consideration of dollar hegemony leads to two further questions. One is whether there is a better way of organizing the world monetary order, which is associated with debate about the possibility of a new Bretton Woods. The other is what is the future of dollar hegemony? |
| Keywords: | Dollar hegemony, Neoliberalism, power, currency competition, capital mobility, Bretton Woods |
| JEL: | F00 F02 F30 F33 |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2220&r= |
| By: | Alain Marciano (MRE - Montpellier Recherche en Economie - UM - Université de Montpellier, UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | Written by James Buchanan in the early 1970s, "The Samaritan's Dilemma" is a pessimistic essay, marked by his author's negative views about the situation in Western societies at that time. Yet, the situation described in this essay also fits into Buchanan's approach of cooperation and free-riding. Put differently, it is perfectly with Buchanan's views in public economics. This is what we aim at showing in this short article. Our demonstration develops in two parts. First, we show that Buchanan's main argument about cooperation in the provision of public goods or removal of externalities necessarily leads to situations such as the one described in the Samaritan's dilemma. Second, we show that Buchanan did not take the situation seriously until the end of the 1960s, a few years before he wrote his essay on the dilemma. |
| Keywords: | Buchanan,samaritan's dilemma,cooperation,exploitation,numbers,public goods,externalities |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03683855&r= |
| By: | Becker, Sascha O (Monash U and U Warwick); Pfaff, Steven (University of Washington) |
| Abstract: | Over many centuries, church and state have grown together, and apart. Sometimes linked like Siamese twins, sometimes in conflict with each other. This chapter discusses the major themes in the literature on church and state, some of the findings in the political economy of religion, and evaluates emerging directions in research on church-state relations. |
| Keywords: | Church ; State ; Secularization ; Political Economy ; Deregulation |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:617&r= |
| By: | Melo González, Jorge Orlando |
| Abstract: | Una mirada más detallada de la historia colombiana, del surgimiento de sus ciudades y del desarrollo de las zonas rurales, permite establecer que, a pesar de la noción generalizada de los colombianos, el país no ha tenido una historia lineal de urbanización constante. En cambio, ha tenido periodos de gradual ruralización y urbanización desde la época de la conquista; a su vez que los procesos de urbanización se disparan y evolucionan desde finales del siglo XIX. En este texto se presenta la evolución de las zonas urbanas y rurales desde el siglo XVI hasta el siglo XX, explorando los diferentes factores de urbanización y ruralización. |
| Keywords: | DESARROLLO RURAL, DESARROLLO URBANO, URBANIZACION, HISTORIA, ASENTAMIENTOS HUMANOS, RURAL DEVELOPMENT, URBAN DEVELOPMENT, URBANIZATION, HISTORY, HUMAN SETTLEMENTS |
| Date: | 2022–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col028:47966&r= |
| By: | Yves Cinotti (Ecole supérieure du professorat et de l'éducation) |
| Abstract: | Apprenticeship training in the hotel and catering industry has a long history. But hotel schools have only existed since 1910. In France, apprenticeship has had its ups and downs throughout history. It has always been valued by professionals, but much less so, at certain times, by the public authorities. This paper aims to retrace the history of apprenticeship for hotel and restaurant employees and to study the history of hotel and catering school in parallel. |
| Abstract: | La formation en hôtellerie-restauration par apprentissage est ancienne. Mais il n'existe des écoles hôtelières que depuis 1910. Or, l'apprentissage a connu, en France, des hauts et des bas au cours de l'histoire. Il a toujours a été valorisé par les professionnels, beaucoup moins, à certaines époques, par les pouvoirs publics. Cette communication vise à retracer l'histoire de l'apprentissage des employés des hôtels et restaurants et à étudier parallèlement l'histoire de l'enseignement en école hôtelière. |
| Keywords: | hospitality education,sandwich education,apprenticeship,enseignement hôtelier,alternance,apprentissage |
| Date: | 2022–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03736836&r= |
| By: | Bräuer, Richard (Halle Institute for Economic Research and VU Amsterdam); Hungerland, Wolf-Fabian (Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy, Berlin); Kersting, Felix (HU Berlin) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the economic and political effects of a large trade shock in agriculture – the grain invasion from the Americas – in Prussia during the first globalization (1871-1913). We show that this shock accelerated the structural change in the Prussian economy through migration of workers to booming cities. In contrast to studies using today’s data, we do not observe declining per capita income, health outcomes or political polarization in counties aected by foreign competition. Our results suggest that the negative and persistent eects of trade shocks we see today are not a universal feature of globalization, but depend on labor mobility. For our analysis, we digitize data from Prussian industrial and agricultural censuses on the county level and combine it with national trade data at the product level. We exploit the cross-regional variation in cultivated crops within Prussia and instrument with Italian trade data to isolate exogenous variation. |
| Keywords: | globalization; import competition; labor market; elections; agriculture; migration; trade shock; |
| JEL: | F14 F16 F66 F68 N13 R12 |
| Date: | 2021–10–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:285&r= |
| By: | Ivan Sternick (CEDEPLAR/UFMG) |
| Abstract: | This paper defends the hypothesis that Smith’s theory of sympathy and the impartial spectator was developed as a response to the problem of the moral status of sociability founded on self-love, as bequeathed by the selfish anthropology advocated by Mandeville and denounced by Rousseau. Differently from those who see complete opposition in the relationship between Smith and Rousseau, this means that the former agrees with the latter’s criticism of Mandeville’s anthropology. Nevertheless, it is argued that, in Smith’s view, Rousseau was wrong to incorporate a Mandevillian-inspired psychology into his description of the workings of modern society, since it does not correctly explain human behavior and interaction. In this sense, the often emphasized sympathies of Smith for Rousseau’s criticisms of commercial society should be mitigated, inasmuch as the latter are founded on a mostly mistaken view of the principle of sociability based on self-love. |
| Keywords: | Adam Smith; Sociability; Self-love; Commerce; Jean-Jacques Rousseau; Bernard Mandeville. |
| JEL: | B10 B11 B12 |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td643&r= |
| By: | Macve, Richard |
| JEL: | M40 |
| Date: | 2021–02–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:108631&r= |
| By: | John H. Cochrane |
| Abstract: | The fiscal theory states that inflation adjusts so that the real value of government debt equals the present value of real primary surpluses. Monetary policy remains important. The central bank can set an interest rate target, which determines the path of expected inflation, while news about the present value of surpluses drives unexpected inflation. I use fiscal theory to interpret historical episodes, including the rise and fall of inflation in the 1970s and 1980s, the long quiet zero bound of the 2010s, and the reemergence of inflation in 2021, as well as to analyze the gold standard, currency pegs, the ends of hyperinflations, currency crashes, and the success of inflation targets. Going forward, fiscal theory warns that inflation will have to be tamed by coordinated monetary and fiscal policy. I thank Erik Hurst, Ed Nelson, Nina Pavcnik, and Timothy Taylor for helpful comments. |
| JEL: | E42 E52 E58 E61 E62 E63 E65 |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30328&r= |
| By: | Broadberry, Stephen (University of Oxford); Campbell, Bruce M. S. (The Queen’s University of Belfast); Klein, Alexander (University of Kent); Overton, Mark (University of Exeter); Leeuwen, Bas van (University of Utrecht) |
| Abstract: | Annual estimates of GDP constructed from the output side are used to analyse British business cycles between 1270 and 1870. After c.1670 the scale of recessions tended to diminish as the economy grew, diversified and became more resilient. Until c.1730, business cycles were driven largely by agricultural fluctuations, but shocks to industry and commerce became more important over time as the structure of the economy changed. A number of severe recessions can be identified, associated with harvest failures, disease outbreaks, wars and disruptions to commerce. Monetary and financial factors also played a role in some of these severe recessions. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:627&r= |
| By: | Giuliano, Paola (University of California, Los Angeles); Reich, Bryony (Kellogg); Riboni, Alessandro (Ecole Polytechnique, Paris) |
| Abstract: | Why do some leaders invest in significant nation-building policies and others do not? Why does nation-building occur at certain junctures in time and not others? In our research, we investigate what motivates leaders to nation build. We argue that threats to their regime motivate rulers to invest in significant nation-building and that the type of threats that provoke nation-building have largely materialized since the 19th century. |
| Keywords: | nation-building, education, war |
| JEL: | N0 P16 |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15422&r= |
| By: | César Ducruet (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Hidekazu Itoh (Kwansei Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | Based on untapped shipping and urban data, this article compares the diffusion of steam and container shipping at the port city level and at the global scale between 1880 and 2008. A temporal and multi-layered network is constructed, including the pre-existing technologies of sailing and breakbulk. The goal is to check the differences a) between innovations and their predecessors and b) between innovations, from an urban network perspective. Main results show that despite certain differences, such as historical context, voyage length, speed of diffusion, and geographical spread, the two innovations share a large quantity of similarities. They both fostered port concentration, were boosted by city size and port connectivity, bypassed upstream port sites, and diverged gradually from older technologies. This research thus contributes to the literature on cities, networks, innovation, and maritime transport. |
| Keywords: | Containerization,Maritime transport,Port cities,Regional disparity,Spatial networks,Steam shipping,Technological change |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03719062&r= |
| By: | Paola Giuliano; Bryony Reich; Alessandro Riboni |
| Abstract: | Why do some leaders invest in significant nation-building policies and others do not? Why does nation-building occur at certain junctures in time and not others? In our research, we investigate what motivates leaders to nation build. We argue that threats to their regime motivate rulers to invest in significant nation-building and that the type of threats that provoke nation-building have largely materialized since the 19th century. |
| JEL: | N0 P16 |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30268&r= |
| By: | Fenske, James (University of Warwick); Gupta, Bishnupriya (University of Warwick); Neumann, Cora (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | We construct novel data on female population shares by age, district, and religion in South Asia from 1881 to 1931. Sex ratios skew male in Northern India and are more balanced in Southern and Eastern India, including Burma. Male-biased sex ratios emerge most visibly after age 10, and this is not specific to any one region, religion, or time period. Sikhs have the most male-biased sex ratios, followed by Hindus, Muslims, and Jains. The female share correlates across religious groups within districts. Evidence that sex ratios correlate with suitability for wheat and rice is weaker than suggested by the existing literature. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:613&r= |
| By: | Seitz, Franz; Rösl, Gerhard |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we focus on the stabilizing role of cash from a society-wide perspective. Starting with conceptual remarks on the importance of money for the economy in general, special attention is paid to the unique characteristics of cash. As these become apparent especially during crisis periods, a comparison of the Great Depression (1929 – 1933) and the Great Recession 2008/09 shows the devastating effects of a severe monetary contraction and how a fully elastic provision of cash can help to avoid such a situation. We find interesting similarities to both crises in two separate case studies, one on the demonetization in India 2016 and the other on cash supply during various crises in Greece since 2008. The paper concludes that supply-driven cash withdrawals from circulation (either by demonetization or by capital controls) destabilize the economy if electronic payment substitutes are not instantly available. However, as there is no perfect substitute for cash due to its unique properties, from the viewpoint of the society as a whole an efficient payment mix necessarily includes cash: It helps to stabilize the economy not only in times of crises in general, no matter which government is in place. Consequently, it should be the undisputed task of central banks to ensure that cash remains in circulation in normal times and is provided in a fully elastic way in times of crisis. |
| Keywords: | Cash, banknotes, money, crises, stabilization |
| JEL: | E41 E51 E58 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:113784&r= |
| By: | Goodhart, Charles |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2022–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:115779&r= |
| By: | Richard S.J. Tol (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, BN1 9SL Falmer, United Kingdom) |
| Abstract: | It is unclear whether the hierarchy in the economics profession is the result of the agglomeration of excellence or of nepotism. I construct the professor-student network for laureates of and candidates for the Nobel Prize in Economics. I study the effect of proximity to previous Nobelists on winning the Nobel Prize. Conditional on being Nobel-worthy, students and grandstudents of Nobel laureates are not significantly more or less likely to win. Professors of Nobel Prize winners, however, are significantly more likely to win. |
| Keywords: | network formation, research training, Nobel prize |
| JEL: | A14 D85 Z13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:0322&r= |
| By: | Aliu, Florin; Mulaj, Isa; Matoshi, Ruzhdi |
| Abstract: | Inflation and unemployment were two of the main issues that plagued the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY) from 1965 to her disintegration. Economic history has taught us that uncontrolled inflation is a characteristic of the countries with a lack of democracy but SFRY was more economically liberal and decentralized than any other communist country. Using the World Bank annual data from 1965 to 1990 for unemployment and inflation, the OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) findings demonstrate that unemployment is significant and positively affects the inflation rate, which stands against the theoretical paradigms known as the Phillips curve. The impulse response function (IRF) indicates that the positive shock of unemployment positively affects inflation in the short run. The Johansen test reports that unemployment and inflation were integrated into the short-run confirming the expectations-augmented Phillips curve. Moreover, contrary to theoretical expectations is the co-integration in the long run where the relationship between inflation and unemployment rate turned into an upward steeper slope. To this end, the results help the scholars to be informed on the historical relationship between inflation and unemployment in the context of SFRY, a formerly communist country with a differentiated economic model. The relevance of our findings goes beyond economic concepts by understanding them as one of the main factors contributing to the bloody disintegration of the SFRY. |
| Keywords: | SFRY, self-management socialism, inflation, unemployment, Phillips curve |
| JEL: | E24 J64 N14 P21 P24 |
| Date: | 2021–10–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:113920&r= |
| By: | Quentin Plantec (TSM - Toulouse School of Management Research - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - TSM - Toulouse School of Management - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées); Pascal Le Masson; Benoît Weil |
| Abstract: | Since the 1980s, many companies recognized for their major scientific breakthroughs (e.g., IBM, AT&T, etc.), cut their investments in fundamental research activities. In parallel, academics from public research organizations (PRO) and universities engaged more extensively with the industry through research collaborations. The conditions, determinants, and effects of academic engagement have been deeply analyzed. But, the extent to which major scientific breakthroughs of the last century have emerged either from (1) academics and researchers with no interaction with the industry or (2) from scientists interacting with the industry-either as engaged academics belonging to PRO or universities or as corporate scientistsare yet to be more systematically documented. To fill this gap, we explored the extent to which scientists from the quasi-complete cohort of Nobel laureates in Physics, Medicine, and Chemistry were interacting with the industry before their breakthrough discoveries. We designed a unique dataset of their ties with the industry based on affiliations review of 84,423 academic papers and applicant review of 5,207 patent families. First, we showed that one-fifth of the studied cohort of laureates was interacting with the industry before their breakthrough discovery. More importantly, this share is still increasing, mainly through academic engagement, while the share of awarded corporate scientists has remained stable since 1970. Second, we were able to analyze the effects of those interactions with the industry on the post-discovery period by comparing interacting and noninteracting with industry laureates' follow-on research works. While some scientific discoveries were partly made possible thanks to Nobel laureates' industrial partners, those laureates' follow-on knowledge works were not bound to their initial sets of partners. They experienced similar knowledge diffusion-to-industry rates than other laureates but higher academic production rates and diffusion-to-academia rates. Finally, we claim that the extent to which scientific new knowledge still emerges in relation to industrial contexts in modern science has been underevaluated and opens rooms for further research. |
| Keywords: | Scientific discovery,University-Industry collaborations,Nobel Prize,New Product Development,Knowledge absorption,Academic engagement |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03727378&r= |
| By: | Roberto Bonfatti; Kerem Coşar |
| Abstract: | The last two centuries witnessed the rise and fall of empires. We construct a model which rationalises this in terms of the changing trade gains from empires. In the model, empires are arrangements that reduce trade cost between an industrial metropole and the agricultural periphery. During early industrialisation, the value of such bilateral trade increases, and so does the value of empires. As industrialisation diffuses, and as manufactures become more differentiated, trade becomes more multilateral and intra-industry, reducing the value of empires. Our results are consistent with long-term changes in income distribution and trade patterns, and with previous historical arguments. |
| JEL: | F10 F50 N7 |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30295&r= |
| By: | Mr. Christoffer Koch; Andrew Fieldhouse; Sean Howard; David Munro |
| Abstract: | Using newly digitized unemployment insurance claims data we construct a historical monthly unemployment series for U.S. states going back to January 1947. The constructed series are highly correlated with the Bureau of Labor Statics' state-level unemployment data, which are only available from January 1976 onwards, and capture consistent patterns in the business cycle. We use our claims-based unemployment series to examine the evolving pace of post-war unemployment recoveries at the state level. We find that faster recoveries are associated with greater heterogeneity in the recovery rate of unemployment and slower recoveries tend to be more uniformly paced across states. In addition, we find that the pace of unemployment recoveries is strongly correlated with a states' manufacturing share of output. |
| Keywords: | State-Level Unemployment Rates; Unemployment Insurance; Economic Recoveries; Regional Business Cycles; unemployment recovery; unemployment series; unemployment dataset; recession date; unemployment rate series; Unemployment rate; Economic recession; Unemployment; Business cycles; Labor markets |
| Date: | 2022–06–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/117&r= |
| By: | Tetsuji Okazaki (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | Because the consequence of the Pacific War hinged on the marine shipping capacity of Japan, the Japanese government and the military gave top priority to merchant shipbuilding. Planned Shipbuilding, of which the Technical Department of the Navy from 1942 took charge, was a scheme designed to achieve mass-production of merchant ships. The Technical Department of the Navy planned the monthlyprogress of each merchant ship for each private shipyard using bar charts. Huge volume of materials and labor force was mobilized for Planned Shipbuilding, and merchant shipbuilding increased sharply until 1944 FY. It is notable that the increase in the output was substantially larger than that in the input. That is, a large part of the increase in merchant shipbuilding can be attributed to the productivity increase. This paper reveals that using the data on Nagasaki Shipyard of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Co. During the war, Nagasaki Shipyard was specialized in building wartime standard tankers besides naval ships, and achieved sharp increase in labor productivity, while the capital-labor ratio declined, and the quality of labor force deteriorated. In addition, the average days for building a merchant ship was reduced to less than half. This increase in productivity reflected various ingenuities in the design and the production process of ships, based on the two basic innovations, the block building and the electric welding. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:jseres:2022cj305&r= |
| By: | Carl Grekou (CEPII) |
| Abstract: | This presentation proposes a new de facto classification of exchange rate regimes, the synthesis classification. The proposed framework has several advantages over existing de facto classifications. First, it offers a unified framework based on the most divergent classifications, the RR and LYS classifications, leading not only to a broader coverage but also to a broader spectrum of exchange systems. Second, it fits better with the known history of exchange rate regimes developments in the post-Bretton Woods era. Among other things, it brings an interesting nuance to the so-called hollowing-out hypothesis by showing that the evolution of de facto regimes—especially in emerging economies since the late 1990s—has essentially involved movement toward more tightly “managed” intermediate regimes and not a shift away from such regimes. As an illustration of the insightfulness of our classification, I empirically revisit the nexus between currency crises and exchange rate regimes. In addition to associate a higher probability of currency crisis with both intermediate and floating regimes, my classification, also displays better statistical performances than other classifications in predicting currency crises. |
| Date: | 2022–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:fsug22:17&r= |
| By: | Ferreira, Francisco H. G. |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the evolution of thinking, analysis, and discourse about inequality in the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund since their inception in 1944, on the basis of bibliometric analysis, a reading of the literature, and personal experience. Whereas the Fund was largely unconcerned with economic inequality until the 2000s but has shown a rapidly growing interest since then, the Bank’s approach has been characterized by ebbs and flows, with five different phases being apparent. The degree of interest in inequality in the two institutions appears to be largely determined by the prevailing intellectual profile of the topic in academic research, particularly in economics, and by ideological shifts in major shareholder countries, propagated downward internally by senior management. Data availability, albeit partly endogenous, also plays a role. Looking ahead, Bank and Fund researchers continue to have an important role to play, despite a much more crowded field in inequality research. I suggest that this role involves holding firm to an emphasis on inequality “at the bottom” and highlight four themes that may deserve special attention. |
| Keywords: | inequality; World Bank; IMF; Bretton Woods institutions |
| JEL: | B29 D30 O19 |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:116018&r= |
| By: | Filippo Lancieri; Eric A. Posner; Luigi Zingales |
| Abstract: | Antitrust enforcement in the United States has declined since the 1960s. Building on several new datasets, we argue that this decline did not reflect a popular demand for weaker enforcement or any other kind of democratic sanction. The decline was engineered by unelected regulators and judges who, with a few exceptions, did not express skepticism about antitrust law in confirmation hearings. We find little evidence that academic ideas played an important role in the decline of antitrust enforcement except where they coincided with the interests of big business, which appears to have exercised influence behind the scenes. |
| JEL: | K21 L40 P16 |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30326&r= |
| By: | Miller, Marcus (University of Warwick, CAGE and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | Gerard Roland examines data going back to 3,000 BC for historical roots that might explain the current division of nations as between cultures of collectivism and individualism. In response to the appeal for theories bearing on the empirical evidence presented - and of recent moves by Russia and China to create a ‘New World Order’ based on similar cultural division - three contributions are discussed. First is the ‘competing powers’ perspective of Acemoglu and Robinson, who propose that individualism flourishes where power is evenly balanced between the state and the people : otherwise, either Despotism or Disorder will ultimately prevail. Then there is Ken Binmore’s study of cooperative social contracts: this offers support for stable societies of each cultural type, based on the folk theorem of repeated games. Finally the notion that dictatorship may be sustained by deception rather than repression - by leaders whom Guriev and Treisman call ‘spin dictators’. In the light of these perspectives, what to make of the current drive for a new global order that recognizes different ‘spheres of influence’ for each of Roland’s cultural types? We look specifically at the case of Russia. |
| Keywords: | Individualism ; Collectivism ; Culture ; Social Contracts ; Social preferences ; Neofeudalism ; Despotism ; New World Order. JEL Codes: C70 ; C73 ; N00 ; P00 ; P50 ; Z10 ; Z13 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:623&r= |
| By: | Michele Bee (CEDEPLAR/UFMG); Ivan Sternick (CEDEPLAR/UFMG) |
| Abstract: | The Scottish Enlighteners saw in Pufendorf the idea of a pre-government need-based sociability. This idea stemmed from a picture of the human condition as naturally destitute and powerless. Sociability therefore arose from the perception of the advantages given by cooperation and mutual assistance in overcoming this natural inability to provide for one’s own needs. Human beings became sociable through their self-love, understood as the interest in self-preservation. The idea of a principle of sociability independent of government was also crucial to Adam Smith’s conception of society. However, Smith sought to revise Pufendorf’s premises on human nature. Following Hutcheson, he considered them too close to Hobbes’ selfish system. As this article intends to show, for Smith sociability did not arise from need for the assistance of others, as it is often said, but from the desire for deserved esteem. |
| Keywords: | Sociability; Division of Labour; Needs; Adam Smith; Samuel Pufendorf |
| JEL: | B10 B11 B12 |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td644&r= |
| By: | Fernández, Manuel (Universidad de los Andes); Serrano, Gabriela (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | Latin American countries have some of the highest levels of income inequality in the world. However, earnings inequality significantly changed over the last three decades, increasing during the 1980s and 1990s, declining sharply in the 2000s, and stagnating or even increasing in some countries during the last decade. Macroeconomic instability in the region in the 1980s and early 1990s, and the introduction of structural reforms like trade, capital, and financial liberalization, affected the patterns of relative demand and relative earnings across skill-demographic groups in the 1990s, increasing inequality. Significant gains in educational attainment, the demographic transition, and rising female labor force participation changed the skill-demographic composition of labor supply, pushing education and experience premium downward, but this was not enough to counteract demand-side trends. At the turn of the century, improved external conditions, driven by China's massive increase in demand for commodities boosted economies across Latin America, which began to grow rapidly. Growth was accompanied by a positive shift in the relative demand for less-educated workers, stronger labor institutions, rising minimum wages, and declining labor informality, a confluence of factors that reduced earnings inequality. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, particularly after the end of the commodities price boom in 2014, economic growth decelerated, and the pace of inequality decline stagnated. There is extensive literature trying to explain the causes of earnings inequality dynamics during the last three decades in Latin America. We discuss this literature regarding themes, methodological approaches, and key findings, emphasizing the latest perspectives. The focus is on earnings inequality and how developments in labor markets have shaped it. |
| Keywords: | inequality, Latin America, education premium, experience premium, trade reforms, minimum wage, informality |
| JEL: | D31 D33 F16 J21 J23 J31 O54 |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15437&r= |
| By: | Jiarui Wu (Zhongke Tongfa Institute of Economic and Social Research) |
| Date: | 2022–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03727085&r= |
| By: | Broadberry, Stephen (Nuffield College, Oxford,); Guan, Hanhui (Peking University) |
| Abstract: | We examine regional variation in Chinese GDP per head for five benchmark years from the Song dynasty to the Qing. For the Ming and Qing dynasties, we provide a breakdown of regional GDP per head across seven macro regions, establishing that East Central China was the richest macro region. In addition, we provide data on the Yangzi Delta, the core of East Central China, widely seen as the richest part of China since 1400. Yangzi Delta GDP per head was 64 to 67 per cent higher than in China as a whole for three of the four Ming and Qing benchmarks, and 52 per cent higher during the late Ming. For the Northern Song dynasty, although it is not possible to derive a full regional breakdown, we provide data for Kaifeng Fu, the region containing the capital city. GDP per head in Kaifeng Fu was more than twice the level of China as a whole. Combined with aggregate data for GDP per head, these estimates suggest that China was the leading economy in the world during the Song dynasty and that the Great Divergence began around 1700 as the leading region of China fell decisively behind the leading region of Europe. JEL classification: N13 ; N33 ; O10 ; O47 Key words: Great Divergence ; China ; regional variation ; GDP per head |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:625&r= |
| By: | Natalia Khalina (Altai State University) |
| Abstract: | The article analyzes the linguistic processes that determine and accompany the events of the last century, in terms of linguistics marked by the consequences of linguistic turn in philosophy and historiography. Language management is considered as the main language process, significant events are the creation of the Republican Turkey and the Turkic Council. The stages of language management are differentiated on the basis of detailed terminological descriptions of language transformations in Turkey, presented in the article Shayan Salehi ‘The Significance of Turkish Language Reforms of Early Republican Turkey in the Creation of the Modern Turkish Nation-State", and allowing to reconstruct cognitive chains-sequences of work on the creation of a new Turkish semiotic unity. The creation of the Turkic (Turkish) language is considered as a media form, semiotic "transposition" and continuation of the Turkish language management of the 30s of the twentieth century. Council and Media Forum of the Turkish- speaking countries and communities. |
| Abstract: | В статье анализируются языковые процессы, определяющие и сопровождающие события последнего столетия, в языковедческом плане отмеченного последствиями лингвистического поворота в философии и историографии. В качестве основного языкового процесса рассматривается языковой менеджмент, значимых событийсоздание Республиканской Турции и Тюркского Совета. Этапы языкового менеджмента дифференцируются на основе детальных терминологических описаний языковых преобразований в Турции, представленных в статье Shayan Salehi "The Significance of Turkish Language Reforms of Early Republican Turkey in the Creation of the Modern Turkish Nation-State" и позволяющих реконструировать когнитивные цепочки-последовательности работы по созданию нового турецкого семиотического единства. В качестве медийной формы, семиотического «переложения» и продолжения турецкого языкового менеджмента 30-ых гг. ХХ века рассматривается создание Тюркского (Турецкого) Совета и Media forum of the Turkicspeaking countries and communities. |
| Keywords: | Turkish language,language management,language consciousness,Republic of Turkey,Turkic world,Turkic Council,cognitive flexibility,conceptual topology,Media forum of the Turkish-speaking countries and communities,media cooperation,турецкий язык,языковой менеджмент,языковое сознание,Республика Турция,Тюркский мир,Тюркский совет,когнитивная пластичность,концептуальная топология,Media forum of the Turkic-speaking countries and communities,медиа кооперация |
| Date: | 2022–03–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03747898&r= |
| By: | Timothy Wilson; Ilan Noy |
| Abstract: | We compare the realised impact of terrorism and disasters linked to natural hazards. Using fifty years of data from two databases covering 99 percent of the global population, we find that natural hazard disasters were more then 20 times more impactful than terrorism. The former had a larger realised impact in all regions in both gross and per-capita terms. The largest cross-peril difference was in Asia, where natural hazard disasters took 324 million Lifeyears, while terrorism took ten. Similar results were found across countries grouped by income status and development status. Low and lower-middle income countries bore the vast majority of the impact of both terrorism and natural hazard disasters. Given the multitude of prevalent global threats, our findings are relevant in the allocation of scarce public resources to mitigate and adapt. Our results suggest that significantly greater public spending should be applied to natural hazard disasters than terrorism. |
| Keywords: | terrorism, disaster, lifeyears, shock |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9885&r= |
| By: | Hari, Naveen |
| Abstract: | The interplay between caste and education has been always a topic of debate in India since a long time now. The inter-linkage is sometimes clearly visible and sometimes not due to the qualitative nature of caste. This paper summarizes various literature on caste and education. |
| Keywords: | caste; education; development; economics; divide; |
| JEL: | I00 I20 I24 I25 J71 Z10 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:113775&r= |
| By: | Naqvi, Natalya |
| JEL: | N0 F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:115781&r= |
| By: | Chatzarakis, Nikolaos; Tsaliki, Persefoni |
| Abstract: | The analysis of a sustained long-run equilibrium path of economic growth goes back to Marx’s discussion of the schemes of reproduction and capital accumulation. In this paper, we indicate that the Harrodian ‘knife edge’ instability is a feature of the inner nature of the capitalist mode of production that is explained by the evolution of the rate of surplus-value. A fundamental category in Marx’s analysis, which is not restricted to income distribution, but also has further repercussions, which we grapple with in our analysis. In particular, we argue that the unbalanced economic growth path is the macroeconomic manifestation of the consequent antithesis between productive forces and productive relations formed during the process of capital accumulation and confined by the evolution of the rate of surplus-value. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth; Capital Accumulation; Rate of Surplus-Value; Knife-Edge Instability |
| JEL: | E11 E12 E32 P16 |
| Date: | 2022–07–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:113852&r= |
| By: | Xhulia Likaj (Forum New Economy); Michael Jacobs (University of Sheffield (SPERI)); Thomas Fricke (Forum New Economy) |
| Abstract: | Arguments about the possibility and desirability of exponential economic growth have animated the environmental movement for half a century, since the publication of the Club of Rome report The Limits to Growth in 1972. The debate has been revived in recent years as the climate crisis has reached centre-stage. This paper seeks to unpick the different strands in the debate and the different kinds of arguments - philosophical, empirical, and policy-prescriptive - used by different writers and institutions. It suggests that the contemporary debate is best understood as a disagreement between political strategies, in which the character of public and academic discourse plays a key role. |
| Keywords: | economic growth, green growth, degrowth, post-growth, wellbeing, GDP |
| JEL: | O4 O44 Q56 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agz:bpaper:2202&r= |