nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2022‒04‒11
43 papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Northumbria University

  1. Persistently egalitarian? Swedish income inequality in 1613 and the four-estate parliament By Andersson, Martin; Molinder, Jakob
  2. The formation of agricultural governance: the interplay between state and civil society in European agriculture, 1870-1940 By Jordi Planas; Anton Schuurman; Yves Segers
  3. Unions and Inequality Over the Twentieth Century: New Evidence from Survey Data By Henry S. Farber; Daniel Herbst; Ilyana Kuziemko; Suresh Naidu
  4. ‘What do the New Liberals want?’ The forgotten republicanism in Swedish politics, 1867–1872 By Olofsson, Magnus
  5. Did it pay to be a pioneer? Wealth accumulation in a newly settled frontier society By Cilliers, Jeanne; Green, Erik; Ross, Robert
  6. Social classes in economics analysis. A brief historical account. By Rafael Muñoz de Bustillo Llorente; Fernando Esteve Mora
  7. Suburbanization in the United States 1970-2010 By Redding, Stephen
  8. Pro-birth policies, missions and fertility : historical evidence from Congo By Catherine Guirkinger; Paola Villar
  9. Assortative mating and the Industrial Revolution: England, 1754-2021 By Clark, Gregory; Cummins, Neil
  10. Forced Displacement in History : Some Recent Research By Becker, Sascha O
  11. Sovereign bonds since Waterloo By Meyer, Josefin; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph
  12. Taxless fiscal states: Lessons from 19th-century America and 21st-century China By Yuen Yuen Ang
  13. Series largas de algunos agregados económicos y demográficos regionales: Actualización de RegData hasta 2020. (RegData y RegData Dem versión 6.1-2020) By Angel de la Fuente
  14. Why Aren’t People Leaving Janesville? Industry Persistence, Trade Shocks, and Mobility By Sebastian Ottinger; Michael Poyker
  15. Failure of Gold, Bitcoin and Ethereum as safe havens during the Ukraine-Russia war By Alhonita YATIE
  16. The Long-Term Effects of Early-Life Pollution Exposure: Evidence from the London Smog By Stephanie von Hinke; Emil Sorensen
  17. Who Can Tell Which Banks Will Fail? By Kristian S. Blickle; Markus K. Brunnermeier; Stephan Luck
  18. Screening and Recruiting Talent at Teacher Colleges Using Pre-College Academic Achievement By Christopher Neilson; Sebastian Gallegos; Franco Calle; Mohit Karnani
  19. Federal Reserve Structure and Economic Ideas By Michael D. Bordo; Edward Simpson Prescott
  20. Forced Displacement in History: Some Recent Research By Sascha O. Becker
  21. Had Keynes Read More Veblen: The Imperative of a Scientific Theory of Human Behavior By Jon D. Wisman
  22. The dynamic consequences of state-building: evidence from the French Revolution By Cédric Chambru; Emeric Henry; Benjamin Marx
  23. Justifying inherited wealth: between ‘the bank of mum and dad’ and the meritocratic ideal By Moor, Liz; Friedman, Sam
  24. Why has economic shrinking receded in Latin America? A social capability approach By Andersson, Martin; Palacio, Andrés; von Borries, Alvaro
  25. How the Bourgeoisie’s Quest for Status Placed Blame for Poverty on the Poor By John Wisman
  26. Evolución de salarios por calificación y desigualdad económica en Uruguay, 1918-2009 By María Camou; Silvana Maubrigades
  27. A New Claims-Based Unemployment Dataset: Application to Postwar Recoveries Across U.S. States By Fieldhouse, Andrew; Howard, Sean; Koch, Christoffer; Munro, David
  28. New historical estimates of the human development index By Luis Bertola; Laura Gatti
  29. The global inequality boomerang By Ravi Kanbur; Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez; Andy Sumner
  30. Transferencias de ingresos entre actividades productivas en Uruguay (1955-2019). Estabilidad, cambio y creciente dispersión. By Carolina Román; Henry Willebald
  31. España 1970-2070: Tendencias y proyecciones demográficas con un ojo puesto en las finanzas del sistema de pensiones By Angel de la Fuente
  32. Locating Industrial Policy in Developmental Transformation: Lessons from the Past, Prospects for the Future By Ben Fine; Seeraj Mohamed
  33. ¿Crisis como oportunidad? La participación laboral de las mujeres en la economía uruguaya durante las crisis económicas de 1930, 1980 y 2000 By María Camou; Silvana Maubrigades
  34. The Occupations of Free Women and Substitution with Enslaved Workers in the Antebellum United States By Chiswick, Barry R.; Robinson, RaeAnn H.
  35. Arbeitsmigration und Gewerkschaft: Die Recklinghäuser Tagung als migrationspolitisches Forum der Industriegewerkschaft Bergbau, Chemie, Energie By Jäger, Wolfgang
  36. Boomtowns: Health, Income, and the Preston Curve: A Long View By Leandro Prados de la Escosura
  37. Crecimiento de la productividad agraria en Nueva Zelanda y Uruguay, 1930-1966 By Jorge Álvarez
  38. The Relevance of Financialization for African Economies: Lessons from South Africa By Sam Ashman; Ben Fine; Ewa Karwowski
  39. House prices in Spain: Is it always sunny and warm? By Juan Carlos Cuestas; Mercedes Monfort; Javier Ordóñez
  40. The Economics of Global Warming 1959-2020. By Weshah Razzak
  41. History of disinvestment in India: 1991-2020. By Banerjee, Sudipto; Sane, Renuka; Sharma, Srishti; Suresh, Karthik
  42. Agency and Economic Change in Regions: Using Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to identify Routes to New Path Development By Grillitsch, Markus; Sotarauta, Markku; Asheim, Björn; Fitjar, Rune Dahl; Haus-Reve, Silje; Kolehmainen, Jari; Kurikka, Heli; Lundquist, Karl-Johan; Martynovich, Mikhail; Monteilhet, Skirmante; Nielsen, Hjalti; Nilsson, Magnus; Rekers, Josefine; Sopanen, Sami; Stihl, Linda
  43. Productive and regional development policies in Latin America since 1890 By Luis Bertola

  1. By: Andersson, Martin (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences); Molinder, Jakob (Department of Economic History, Uppsala University)
    Abstract: There is a widespread perception that present-day Nordic egalitarianism is the outcome of a long historical continuity, where the strong political position of peasant farmers and weak feudalism were marking characteristics of pre-industrial society. However, little empirical evidence so far exists on the distribution of income for the early modern period. In this paper, we draw on the schedule and individual assessments devised by the authorities to distribute the tax-burden associated with the Älvsborg ransom to estimate income inequality and the share of income accruing to top income earners and to different social groups in the Swedish realm (present-day Sweden and Finland) in 1613. Using this information, we are able to speak to several debates on pre-industrial distribution of income and historical inequality in the Nordic countries. We find that the income share of the richest one percent was 13 percent while the share of the top 0.01 percent stood at 2 percent. Sweden was characterized by a two- pronged social structure where a large share of income was held by the absolute top as well as by the peasants who made up the majority of the population, while the nobility, clergy, burghers and other middle-rank groups held relatively small income shares not least due to their small population numbers. This finding helps explain the relatively strong position of peasants as a fourth estate within the early modern Swedish parliament. While Sweden in the early seventeenth century was relatively equal compared to other contemporary societies, the egalitarian social structure was upended over the subsequent centuries resulting in vast economic and political inequality by the late nineteenth century. Thus, there is no apparent continuity between early modern equality and post-WW2 egalitarianism.
    Keywords: inequality; income distribution; top incomes; Sweden; early modern period
    JEL: D31 N13 N33
    Date: 2022–02–07
  2. By: Jordi Planas; Anton Schuurman; Yves Segers
    Abstract: In this paper, we focus on the relationship between state and agriculture in Europe in the period roughly from 1870 to 1940. Since the crisis of the late nineteenth-century, state intervention had increased into many areas of agricultural markets, and a growing social mobilization within the countryside had also made its mark, with the diffusion of agricultural associations (landowners associations, farmers unions, specialized crop producers’ associations, co-operatives, ...) that led to a much more organized rural society. Already prior to the 1930s, the state had become involved, one way or another, with the development of agriculture, such as the promotion of technical advancement, in the regulation of agricultural markets, and in the development of farm supportive policies. Throughout this period, agricultural associations played a growing role as intermediary institutions, and it is this period that we consider to be the formative period of this interplay between the state and agricultural civil society. The result was a metamorphosis from the mobilization of the peasantry and the representation of agrarian interests to a form of selfgovernment or co-government of the agricultural sector at the national level, which reached its highest point only after the Second World War.
    Keywords: agricultural governance, state intervention, agricultural organizations, agricultural modernization, European agriculture, early twentieth century
    JEL: N43 N44 N53 N54
    Date: 2022–04
  3. By: Henry S. Farber (Princeton University); Daniel Herbst (Eller College of Management); Ilyana Kuziemko (Princeton University); Suresh Naidu (Columbia University)
    Abstract: It is well-documented that, since at least the early twentieth century, U.S. income inequality has varied inversely with union density. But moving beyond this aggregate relationship has proven difficult, in part because of the absence of micro-level data on union membership prior to 1973. We develop a new source of micro-data on union membership, opinion polls primarily from Gallup (N ≈ 980, 000), to look at the effects of unions on inequality from 1936 to the present. First, we present a new time series of household union membership from this period. Second, we use these data to show that, throughout this period, union density is inversely correlated with the relative skill of union members. When density was at its peak in the 1950s and 1960s, union members were relatively less-skilled, whereas today and in the pre-World War II period, union members are equally skilled as non-members. Third, we estimate union household income premiums over this same period, finding that despite large changes in union density and selection, the premium holds steady, at roughly 15–20 log points, over the past eighty years. Finally, we present a number of direct results that, across a variety of identifying assumptions, suggest unions have had a significant, equalizing effect on the income distribution over our long sample period.
    Keywords: Economic policy, Labor force, Employment, Social conditions and trends
    JEL: J51 N32
    Date: 2021–04
  4. By: Olofsson, Magnus (Department of History, Lund University)
    Abstract: This paper argues that the leading radical political movement in Sweden around the year 1870, whose demands included expanding the franchise, female emancipation, religious freedom, universal conscription, and abolishment of land taxes, has been partly misconstrued and misunderstood in earlier scholarship, which has characterized the New Liberals rather vaguely as ‘liberal’, ‘radical’ or ‘democratic’. Through an analysis of the New Liberals’ internal and external communication, this paper instead argues that the New Liberal movement was influenced by the larger European republican tradition. Their democratic project was not liberal, but republican, and this can be seen in their views on political freedom and popular sovereignty, suffrage extension, and on the importance of politically active, virtuous, citizens. In short, the New Liberals wanted to remake the state from the ground up and reform the mores of the Swedish people along republican lines. This strong presence of republican ideas, which in earlier scholarship has been misconstrued as liberalism, it is argued, poses important questions for our understanding of Swedish nineteenth-century political life, not only during their active years but also in the decades that preceded and followed.
    Keywords: Republicanism; Democratization; Sweden; Liberalism
    JEL: N43
    Date: 2022–01–31
  5. By: Cilliers, Jeanne (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Green, Erik (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Ross, Robert (Institute for History, Leiden University)
    Abstract: While wealth-holding patterns in rural areas have been well studied, the link between initial conditions, prospects for wealth accumulation, and the persistence of inequality at an agricultural frontier is less clear. On the one hand, the frontier is thought to have had a levelling effect, with the availability of cheap land acting as an equalizer. On the other hand, land rents, accumulated during the settlement process, are thought to have the opposite effect. In this paper, we contribute to the debate on inequality in pre-industrial societies using a unique dataset that allows us to identify different wealth-accumulation strategies in an agrarian frontier society: the Graaff-Reinet district in South Africa’s Cape Colony between 1786-1850.
    Keywords: South Africa; pre-industrial; frontier; wealth accumulation; life-cycle
    JEL: N00 N37
    Date: 2022–02–18
  6. By: Rafael Muñoz de Bustillo Llorente (Universidad de Salamanca); Fernando Esteve Mora
    Abstract: The purpose of this working paper, the first of a series of three aiming at studying social classes from an economic perspective, is to review the role played by social classes in economic analysis. With that aim, we will first discuss the use of the concept of social classes in the analysis of classical economists. Then we will present the reasons behind the abandonment of the concept of social classes as an analytical tool by the marginalist school who triumphed in the final quarter of the 19th century, changing the economic paradigm, and by mainstream economists in the 20th Century. Nevertheless, it can be argued that the classical idea of social class (based on the source of income: wages versus profits) has somehow remained alive in modern macroeconomic analysis, if in disguise, behind the concept of functional (or factorial) distribution of income. The last part of the paper reviews the role played by the functional distribution of income in current macroeconomic analysis, and studies how the evolution of the economy and labour relations in the last few decades has made the interpretation of the functional distribution of income in terms of social classes less relevant than in the past.
    Keywords: Social Class, Functional Distribution of Income, Labour segmentation
    Date: 2022–03
  7. By: Redding, Stephen
    Abstract: The second half of the twentieth century saw large-scale suburbanization in the United States, with the median share of residents who work in the same county where they live falling from 87 to 71 percent between 1970 and 2000. We introduce a new methodology for discriminating between the three leading explanations for this suburbanization (workplace attractiveness, residence attractiveness and bilateral com-muting frictions). This methodology holds in the class of spatial models that are characterized by a structural gravity equation for commuting. We show that the increased openness of counties to commuting is mainly explained by reductions in bilateral commuting frictions, consistent with the expansion of the interstate highway network and the falling real cost of car ownership. We find that changes in workplace attractiveness and residence attractiveness are more important in explaining the observed shift in employment by workplace and employment by residence towards lower densities over time.
    Keywords: economic geography; suburbanization; transportation
    JEL: R12 R30 R40
    Date: 2021–05–19
  8. By: Catherine Guirkinger (Center for Research in the Economics of Development, University of Namur); Paola Villar
    Abstract: Did colonial powers shape fertility patterns in their colonies? We investigate this question in the context of the Belgian Congo. Starting in the late 1920s, several colonial powers in Africa feared depopulation of their colonies and designed pro-birth policies. The Belgian state heavily relied on Catholic nuns to implement these policies in the Congo. Using a demographic survey conducted in the 1970s in seven major cities, we recovered the individual birth calendars of 30,000 women born between 1900 and 1948, under colonial rule. In addition we digitized high-quality territory level information on fertility by cohort in the 1950s. We rely on unique historical and archival material to reconstruct temporal and geographic heterogeneity in exposure to missionary presence and the type of activities performed at the station level. We find a positive effect of Catholic nuns on fertility. In contrast, Catholic male missionaries have no detectable impact on fertility and Protestant missionaries have a clear negative impact. In terms of mechanisms, we argue that progress in general health are unlikely to explain, alone, the rise in fertility. Another likely channel was the promotion of an ideal of domesticity where women are confined to their role of mother and wife. Finally, using Demographic and Health Survey data, we find some trace of colonial mission’s influence on fertility patterns today.
    Date: 2022–03
  9. By: Clark, Gregory; Cummins, Neil
    Abstract: Using a new database of 1.7 million marriage records for England 1837-2021 we estimate assortment by occupational status in marriage, and the intergenerational correlation of occupational status. We find the underlying correlations of status groom-bride, and father-son, are remarkably high: 0.8 and 0.9 respectively. These correlations are unchanged 1837-2021. There is evidence this strong matching extends back to at least 1754. Even before formal education and occupations for women, grooms and brides matched tightly on educational and occupational abilities. We show further that women contributed as much as men to important child outcomes. This implies strong marital sorting substantially increased the variance of social abilities in England. Pre-industrial marital systems typically involved much less marital sorting. Thus the development of assortative marriage may play a role in the location and timing of the Industrial Revolution, through its effect on the supply of those with upper-tail abilities.
    Keywords: human capital development; occupational mobility; technology transfer; post-war reconstruction
    JEL: N33 N34
    Date: 2022–04
  10. By: Becker, Sascha O (Monash University and University of Warwick)
    Abstract: Forced displacement as a consequence of wars, civil conflicts, or natural disasters does not only have contemporaneous consequences but also long-run repercussions. This eclectic overview summarizes some recent research on forced displacement in economic history. While many of the episodes covered refer to Europe, this survey points to literature across all continents. It highlights new developments, and points to gaps in the literature.
    Keywords: Forced Displacement ; Wars ; Disasters ; Networks JEL Classification: F22 ; R23 ; D74 ; Q54 ; N30
    Date: 2022
  11. By: Meyer, Josefin; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph
    Abstract: This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. We compile a new database of 266,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) and 2016, covering up to 91 countries. Our main insight is that, as in equity markets, the returns on external sovereign bonds have been sufficiently high to compensate for risk. Real ex-post returns average more than 6 percent annually across two centuries, including default episodes, major wars, and global crises. This represents an excess return of 3-4 percent above US or UK government bonds, which is comparable to stocks and outperforms corporate bonds. Central to this finding are the high average coupons offered on external sovereign bonds. The observed returns are hard to reconcile with canonical theoretical models and the degree of credit risk in this market, as measured by historical default and recovery rates. Based on our archive of more than 300 sovereign debt restructurings since 1815, we show that full repudiation is rare; the median creditor loss (haircut) is below 50 percent.
    JEL: E4 F3 F4 G1 N0
    Date: 2021
  12. By: Yuen Yuen Ang
    Abstract: How do modern fiscal states arise? Perhaps the most dominant explanation, based on the European experience, is that democratic institutions that limited the extractive power of states—exemplified by the 1688 Glorious Revolution in England—paved the way for the rise of fiscal capacity and subsequent prosperity. Revisionist accounts, however, reveal that this dominant narrative is flawed. In fact, numerous factors converged to enable the rise of European fiscal states, and in England, debt and land were particularly salient factors.
    Keywords: Public finance, Fiscal capacity, Land, United States, China
    Date: 2022
  13. By: Angel de la Fuente
    Abstract: En esta nota se describe brevemente la última actualización de RegData, una base de datos que recoge los principales agregados económicos y demográficos de las regiones españolas durante las últimas seis décadas. En su mayoría, las series comienzan en 1950 o 1955 y se extienden hasta 2020.
    Date: 2022–03
  14. By: Sebastian Ottinger (Northwestern University); Michael Poyker (University of Nottingham)
    Abstract: Particular industries have dominated many locations in the United States for more than a century. We show that individuals residing in such locations were systematically less likely to move away from there during the past few decades. By identifying locations with sizable employment shares in the same manufacturing industries in 1870 and 1980, we documented less out-migration in the decades following 1980 than earlier. In response to the largest shock affecting manufacturing employment since then, these locations adjusted differently: the “China shock” led to higher unemployment in their communities, but fewer people moved away. Drawing on rich data of social links across counties and surveys of individuals residing there, we document that these individuals have stronger local friendship networks than residents of more thriving communities and exhibit systematic differences in their job-market search behavior. We hypothesize that when local opportunities narrow, residents of these locations both lack information about job opportunities elsewhere and benefit from the amenity value of extended social networks in their location of origin. Instrumental variable results based on a historical shock to local industries’ chances of survival suggest that the effect of dominant manufacturing industries on migration is causal. Mediation analysis reveals that the emergence of strong local ties primarily drives such migration.
    Keywords: Employment persistence, labor mobility, local ties
    JEL: J23 N31 N32 N71 N72 R12 Z1
    Date: 2022–02
  15. By: Alhonita YATIE
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of fear, uncertainty and market volatility caused by the Ukraine-Russia war on crypto-assets returns (Bitcoin and Ethereum) and Gold returns. We use the searches on Wikipedia trends as proxies of uncertainty and fear and two volatility indices: S&P500 VIX and the Russian VIX (RVIX). The results show that Bitcoin, Ethereum and Gold failed as safe havens during this war.
    Keywords: War, Russia, Ukraine, crypto-assets, Gold, Safe haven
    JEL: H56 G32 G12 G15
    Date: 2022
  16. By: Stephanie von Hinke; Emil Sorensen
    Abstract: This paper uses a large UK cohort to investigate the impact of early-life pollution exposure on individuals' human capital and health outcomes in older age. We compare individuals who were exposed to the London smog in December 1952 whilst in utero or in infancy to those born after the smog and those born at the same time but in unaffected areas. We found that those exposed to the smog have substantially lower fluid intelligence and worse respiratory health, with some evidence of a reduction in years of schooling.
    Date: 2022–02–18
  17. By: Kristian S. Blickle; Markus K. Brunnermeier; Stephan Luck
    Abstract: We use the German Crisis of 1931, a key event of the Great Depression, to study how depositors behave during a bank run in the absence of deposit insurance. We find that deposits decline by around 20 percent during the run and that there is an equal outflow of retail and nonfinancial wholesale deposits from both ex-post failing and surviving banks. This implies that regular depositors are unable to identify failing banks. In contrast, the interbank market precisely identifies which banks will fail: the interbank market collapses for failing banks entirely but continues to function for surviving banks, which can borrow from other banks in response to deposit outflows. Since regular depositors appear uninformed, it is unlikely that deposit insurance would exacerbate moral hazard. Instead, interbank depositors are best positioned for providing “discipline” via short-term funding.
    Keywords: bank run; deposit insurance; financial crises
    JEL: G01 G21 N20 N24
    Date: 2022–02–01
  18. By: Christopher Neilson (Princeton University); Sebastian Gallegos (Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez); Franco Calle (University of Chicago); Mohit Karnani (MIT)
    Abstract: This paper studies screening and recruiting policies that restrict or incentivize entry to teacher-colleges. Using historical records of college entrance exam scores since 1967 and linking them to administrative data on the population of teachers in Chile, we first document a robust positive and concave relationship between precollege academic achievement and several short and long run measures of teacher productivity. We use an RD design to evaluate two recent policies that increased the share of high-scoring students studying to become teachers. We then show how data-driven algorithms and administrative data can enhance similar teacher screening and recruiting policies.
    Keywords: incentives, college entrance exams, administrative data
    JEL: I23 J24 C21
    Date: 2022–02
  19. By: Michael D. Bordo; Edward Simpson Prescott
    Abstract: This essay was written in memory of Marvin Goodfriend for a Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond book called Essays in Honor of Marvin Goodfriend: Economist and Central Banker. We discuss his Carnegie-Rochester conference paper titled "The Role of a Regional Bank in a System of Central Banks." In that paper, Marvin argued that the Federal Reserve's decentralized structure allowed for competing ideas about monetary and banking policy to develop with the central bank. In our essay, we describe how Marvin demonstrated this argument during his long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. We also describe the institutional developments that led to this competition, including reforms that Chairman William McChesney Martin made to the operation of the Federal Open Market Committee in the 1950s and the introduction of monetary policy ideas such as monetarism and rational expectations by the Reserve Banks.
    Keywords: Federal Reserve structure; monetary policy; governance; Marvin Goodfriend
    JEL: B0 E58 G28 H1
    Date: 2022–01–21
  20. By: Sascha O. Becker (Sascher Becker)
    Abstract: Forced displacement as a consequence of wars, civil conflicts, or natural disasters does not only have contemporaneous consequences but also long-run repercussions. This eclectic overview summarizes some recent research on forced displacement in economic history. While many of the episodes covered refer to Europe, this survey points to literature across all continents. It highlights new developments, and points to gaps in the literature.
    Keywords: Forced Displacement, Wars, Disasters, Networks
    JEL: F22 R23 D74 Q54 N30
    Date: 2022–02
  21. By: Jon D. Wisman
    Abstract: John Maynard Keynes rejected the strict assumption of rational behavior embraced by neoclassical economists, providing causal importance to instincts, habits, and intuition. However, he mostly failed, as did they, to incorporate in his analysis that human decisions are frequently, if not most often, dependent upon the decisions of others. Further, and more particularly, he failed to grant importance to the fact that humans struggle for the recognition and social status necessary for social and self-respect. Thorstein Veblen also rejected the neoclassical expression of rational behavior, and 37 years before Keynes's The General Theory, focused upon interdependence in decision making and status competition by drawing upon Charles Darwin's theory of evolutionary biology to ground in science his theory of human behavior. Had Keynes read Veblen's The Theory of the Leisure Class (1899), he may have recognized the need in his own theory to account for interpersonal decision making and especially of incorporating the struggle for social recognition and status. This article examines how drawing upon aspects of Veblen's work would have enriched the explanatory power of Keynes's economics as well as that of those engaged in furthering Keynes's project. It concludes with reflections on the necessity that economic analysis, and social science generally, be constructed upon a scientifically-grounded conception of human behavior.
    Keywords: Marginal propensity to consume, Conspicuous consumption, Darwinism, Instinct, Status, Emulation
    JEL: B22 B41 E12 E71
    Date: 2022
  22. By: Cédric Chambru; Emeric Henry; Benjamin Marx
    Abstract: How do radical reforms of the state shape economic development over time? In 1790, France’s first Constituent Assembly overhauled the kingdom’s organization to set up new administrative entities and local capitals. In a subset of departments, new capitals were chosen quasi-randomly as the Assembly abandoned its initial plan to rotate administrative functions across multiple cities. We study how exogenous changes in local administrative presence affect the state’s coercive and productive capacity, as well as economic development in the ensuing decades. In the short run, proximity to the state increases taxation, conscription, and investments in law enforcement capacity. In the long run, the new capitals and their periphery obtain more public goods and experience faster economic development. One hundred years after the reform, capitals are 40% more populated than comparable cities in 1790. Our results shed new light on the intertemporal and redistributive impacts of state-building in the context of one of the most ambitious administrative reforms ever implemented.
    Keywords: State capacity, state-building, administrative reform, economic development
    JEL: D70 H41 H71 O18 O43
    Date: 2022–02
  23. By: Moor, Liz; Friedman, Sam
    Abstract: How do people reconcile belief in meritocracy with the receipt of unearned economic gifts? Drawing on interviews with first time homeowners who had bought property with familial gifts or inheritances, we find that many downplay the intergenerational privilege associated with gifting by reporting extended family histories of working-class struggle, upward social mobility and meritocratic striving. Interviewees also draw boundaries between their own wealth and the less legitimate wealth of others, or dispute the significance of gifting compared to other inequalities. We further argue that gifting is a site where two competing logics, the ‘domestic’ and family-orientated and the ‘civic’ and meritocratic, collide. While these competing principles appear to be in conflict, we detail how many labour discursively to bring them into alignment. Here interviewees deploy a humble ‘intergenerational self’ to recast familial gifts as evidence of multigenerational meritocratic success. Yet, while some successfully reconcile these conflicting ‘orders of worth’, for others the tension remains unresolved.
    Keywords: assets; housing; inequality; inheritance tax; meritocracy; social mobility
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2021–09–06
  24. By: Andersson, Martin (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Palacio, Andrés (Department of Economic History, Lund University); von Borries, Alvaro (Department of Human Geography, Lund University)
    Abstract: Episodes of economic shrinking have declined since the 1980s in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). This paper asks why. We propose that the reduction in the frequency and rate of shrinking reveals the dynamic transition from being natural states towards becoming open access societies. To provide empirical support to the argument, we rest on the notion of social capabilities. Hence, societies that invest in their social capabilities are more likely to reduce the frequency of shrinking and become better off in the long run. Using survival models, we test three capabilities (transformative, distributive and regulative) that, we argue, reflect an increase in the resilience to economic shrinking. The results suggest that the transformative capability has not lowered the risk of shrinking in the region. Neither has the distributive capability despite the increases in productive employment during the 2000s. In contrast, regulative capability seems to reduce the risk of shrinking. We conclude that the institutional transformations in LAC are part of the explanation of why economic shrinking has receded. Compared to previous decades, this is an essential step towards open access societies. However, the persistent dependence on a few natural resources seems to hinder progressive transformation and remains a menace to sustainable catching up of the countries in the region.
    Keywords: economic shrinking; income convergence; natural states; social capabilities
    JEL: O47 O57
    Date: 2022–02–11
  25. By: John Wisman
    Abstract: From the rise of the state to the emergence of capitalism, the poor were seldom blamed for their poverty. Because everyone was born into essentially unchangeable status roles, legitimated by religions and a static understanding of the social world, they could take neither credit for their good economic fortune, nor blame for their privation. Most traditional religions insisted that the well-off must be charitable to the poor. This changed with the rise of capitalism and the ideology that legitimated its institutions and practices. Following upon the works of Max Weber and Richard Tawney, the role of Protestantism in generating an ideology that blames the poor for their abject condition has been widely acknowledged. What has been less appreciated is that this ideology has its roots in a new bourgeois class’s struggle for respectability and social status, and that this struggle was a principal force fueling Protestantism’s doctrinal character and success. This ideology depicted the success of the bourgeoisie as the result of virtuous behavior and the misery of the poor as consequent to their moral failings. Secular political economic that arose alongside Protestantism also expressed the attitudes and practices of the emerging bourgeoisie, equally blaming the poor for their poverty. Social respect is essential for self-respect both of which the bourgeoisie realized. Doing so set in motion forces delegitimating ascriptive status. However, it did so at the cruel cost of further debasing the social condition of the poor, depriving them of social and self-respect.
    Keywords: Ideology, Protestantism, Meritocracy, Social Status
    JEL: B15 B11 N3
    Date: 2022
  26. By: María Camou (Programa de Historia Económica y Social, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República); Silvana Maubrigades (Programa de Historia Económica y Social, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República)
    Abstract: Esta investigación proporciona nueva evidencia sobre la evolución de los salarios por calificación en Uruguay entre 1918 y 2009 y su vínculo con los cambios en la demanda y oferta derivados de las etapas de desarrollo económico, así como del impacto de los cambios institucionales ocurridos en el período. Este trabajo mejora los datos existentes sobre la evolución de los salarios en Uruguay, proporcionando cuatro nuevas series de trabajadores calificados, semicalificados, no calificados y rurales no calificados. En el análisis se revela que los cambios en la demanda y los aspectos institucionales son determinantes en la evolución de los salarios por calificación. La brecha salarial por calificación no fue constante y, si bien se redujo hacia mediados del siglo XX, esta tendencia se revierte a partir de los años 60.
    Keywords: calificación, brecha salarial, instituciones, Uruguay
    JEL: N36 J31 J24 J50
    Date: 2020–06
  27. By: Fieldhouse, Andrew; Howard, Sean; Koch, Christoffer; Munro, David
    Abstract: Using newly digitized unemployment insurance claims data we construct a historical monthly unemployment series for U.S. states going back to January 1947. The constructed series are highly correlated with the Bureau of Labor Statics' state-level unemployment data, which are only available from January 1976 onwards, and capture consistent patterns in the business cycle. We use our claims-based unemployment series to examine the evolving pace of post-war unemployment recoveries at the state level. We find that faster recoveries are associated with greater heterogeneity in the recovery rate of unemployment and slower recoveries tend to be more uniformly paced across states. In addition, we find that the pace of unemployment recoveries is strongly correlated with a states' manufacturing share of output.
    Keywords: State-Level Unemployment Rates,Unemployment Insurance,Economic Recoveries,Regional Business Cycles
    JEL: C82 E24 E32 J64 J65 R11
    Date: 2022
  28. By: Luis Bertola (Programa de Historia Económica y Social, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República); Laura Gatti (Programa de Historia Económica y Social, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República)
    Abstract: This paper discusses different alternatives to construct the conventional Historical Human Development Index that considers three dimensions: income, health,and education. We discuss the outcome of different models in terms of aggregated improvements in human development, the rankings of performance, relative growth, the contributions to performance of the different dimensions, and the tradeoffs between the three dimensions. The purpose of the paper is to propose an index that we consider better fits historical development and that provides the less possible gaps in the tradeoffs between the different components of the index. Such an index can be considered the best proxy on which to base policy recommendations. The paper works with a sample of 18 countries of seven regions for 1900-2010.
    Keywords: human development, tradeoffs, convergence, income, education, health
    JEL: E01 I15 I25 I31 N10
    Date: 2021–07
  29. By: Ravi Kanbur; Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez; Andy Sumner
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the past and potential future evolution of income (or consumption) inequality in the world over the period 1981-2040. Inequality in the world has fallen by most common definitions since the late 1980s, and this is largely due to a decline in the between-country component of inequality. We argue that the decline in global inequality over the last decades has spurred a 'sunshine' narrative of falling global inequality that has been rather oversold, in the sense, we argue, it is likely to be temporary .
    Keywords: Global inequality, COVID-19, Pandemic
    Date: 2022
  30. By: Carolina Román (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Henry Willebald (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)
    Abstract: We propose estimates of income intersectoral transfer to approximate the idea of how the inflation process –expressed in terms of different relative price evolutions– has consequences in terms of income inequality and structural change, during the period 1955-2019. Based on the large sectoral aggregates –primary, secondary and tertiary– and, until the 1990s, the transfers of resources between sectors showed a quite stable evolution, without major changes, which meant a smooth reduction of the sectoral dispersion. The tertiary sector turned to be one of the "losers" and the secondary one of the "winners" of the price ́s evolution (especially since the beginning of the 21st century). However, the discrepancies within the aggregates increased and the trajectory of the aggregates little represents their components. In the secondary sector, until the 1990s, the sector performance represented, to a high degree, the movements of the manufacturing industry. However, this pattern changed in the 21st century and construction achieved the predominant role to explain the evolution of the aggregate. In the tertiary sector, communications showed an exceptional trajectory, losing resources after the 1990s. Leaving aside communications, services appear to be the “winning” sector of the 21st century. Continuous, consistent, and homogeneous series of GVA of 13 sectors of activity, at constant and current prices, is an additional result of this research.
    Keywords: intersectoral income transfers, sectorial value-added, inflation, Uruguay
    JEL: E01 E23 E31
    Date: 2021–12
  31. By: Angel de la Fuente
    Abstract: En esta nota se repasa la evolución observada y prevista de la natalidad, la mortalidad y las migraciones en España, así como su impacto sobre la población del país y su estructura por edades durante el último medio siglo y el medio siglo que viene. En la primera parte se analizan las causas inmediatas del proceso de envejecimiento que registra nuestro país y se describe su evolución desde 1970 hasta el presente. La segunda se centra en las perspectivas demográficas para las próximas décadas de acuerdo con las proyecciones de población elaboradas por el INE, Eurostat y la AIReF. La discusión se centrará en las similitudes y diferencias entre las distintas proyecciones y entre las hipótesis básicas y modelos que las sustentan, así como en las implicaciones del análisis para la política migratoria y la sostenibilidad de nuestras cuentas públicas.
    Date: 2022–03
  32. By: Ben Fine (Department of Economics, SOAS University of London); Seeraj Mohamed (Parliamentary Budget Office, South Africa)
    Abstract: What can we learn from structural change of countries that successfully industrialised in the 20th and 21st century? This paper explains that current attempts at economic transformation of the structure of countries’ economies, including industrial development, have to be analysed and understood within the shift to the new, financialised phase of capitalism and the imposition of neoliberal practices, interests and ideologies within countries and on their international economic and financial relations. Rather than reflecting an ideology of the reduction of the role of the state, neoliberalism has entailed the redirection and transformation of the control and role of the state in the provision of welfare, social security, industrial development and deregulation of trade, labour and finance as well as reorientation of both domestic macroeconomic policies and the global financial architecture. The lessons that can be learned from studying late industrialising countries, such as the Asian Tigers, that had achieved relatively high levels of industrial transformation, have to take into account this context, including the analytical reduction, even implosion, of concepts such as development and industrial policy. Further, one has to understand the limitation of current mainstream economics approaches in the context of the redefined and degraded notions of development and the roles of the state that neoliberalism deployed defensively in response to ideas that developmental states played key roles in economic transformations of the late industrialisers. First, we revisit the nature and role of industrial policy. Second, we situate these in relation to one another and what lessons we have learned from the developmental state paradigm and how we might take these lessons forward. And, third, we turn to the relationship between economic and social development. We are mindful, as already suggested, that neoliberalism, as the current stage of capitalism – now longer lasting than its “Keynesian†predecessor – is underpinned by financialisation, something that is increasingly acknowledged across the literature but which needs to be taken into account other than treating finance as one amongst many other factors.
    Keywords: Development; Developmental State; Economic Transformation; Financialisation; Industrial Policy; Neoliberalism
    JEL: G00 H11 O1 P10
    Date: 2022–01
  33. By: María Camou (Programa de Historia Económica y Social, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República); Silvana Maubrigades (Programa de Historia Económica y Social, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República)
    Abstract: Este trabajo realiza un análisis comparado de la incorporación de las mujeres al mercado de trabajo en el Uruguay, en el contexto de las crisis económicas más importantes señaladas por la historiografía económica nacional: la crisis de la década de 1930, la crisis principios de la década de 1980 y, finalmente, la última crisis económica de comienzos del siglo XXI. En cada una de estas crisis se analiza en qué condiciones se da la incorporación de las mujeres al mercado de trabajo. En particular analizando los espacios de inserción, los niveles salariales a los que acceden, la segmentación del mercado de trabajo y las implicancias en materia de continuidad en sus puestos de trabajo.
    Keywords: mercado de trabajo, brecha de género, crisis económica
    JEL: J16 J21 J32 J82
    Date: 2021–06
  34. By: Chiswick, Barry R.; Robinson, RaeAnn H.
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the occupational status and distribution of free women in the antebellum United States. It considers both their reported and unreported (imputed) occupations, using the 1/100 IPUMS files from the 1860 Census of Population. After developing and testing the model based on economic and demographic variables used to explain whether a free woman has an occupation, analyses are conducted comparing their occupational distribution to free men, along with analyses among women by nativity, urbanization, and region of the country. While foreign-born and illiterate women were more likely to report having an occupation compared to their native-born and literate counterparts, they were equally likely to be working when unreported family workers are included. In the analysis limited to the slave-holding states, it is shown that the greater the slave-intensity of the county, the less likely were free women to report having an occupation, particularly as private household workers, suggesting substitution in the labor market between free women and enslaved labor.
    Keywords: Women,Labor Force Participation,Occupational Distribution,Unreported Family Workers,Enslaved Workers,Immigrants,1860 Census of Population
    JEL: N31 J16 J21 J82
    Date: 2022
  35. By: Jäger, Wolfgang
    Abstract: Der gewerkschaftlichen Migrationspolitik ist bislang nur eine geringe Aufmerksamkeit zu Teil geworden, wenngleich Arbeitsmigration die Gewerkschaften als Arbeitsmarktpartei in ihrem ureigenen Tätigkeitsfeld herausfordert. Dabei geht es nicht nur um die politische Positionierung der Gewerkschaften zum Thema Migration im öffentlichen Diskurs, sondern auch um den Umgang der Gewerkschaften mit ihren migrantischen Mitgliedern. Die hier präsentierte Studie über die 'Ausländerarbeit' der Industriegewerkschaft Bergbau, Chemie, Energie und ihrer beiden großen Vorläuferorganisationen, der IG Bergbau und Energie und der IG Chemie, Papier, Keramik, beginnt mit der 'Gastarbeiter'-Anwerbung Mitte der 1950er Jahre und reicht bis ins Jahr 2020. Von 1972 an kreist die Studie um die zentrale migrationspolitische Konferenz der IG Bergbau und Energie, die ab 1982 als 'Recklinghäuser Tagung' überregionale Bedeutung gefunden hat. Als jährlich stattfindende Konferenz war sie der Ort hochkarätiger Beiträge und Debatten zur deutschen Migrationspolitik der letzten 50 Jahre. Und sie war ein wichtiger Ort der Aushandlung gewerkschaftlicher Ausländer*innenpolitik, die über die Zeit grundlegende Veränderungen erfahren hat. Der Bogen spannt sich von einer paternalistisch geprägten Integrationsarbeit bis zum Diversity-Management als Instrument zur Gestaltung von Vielfalt.
    Keywords: Migranten,Ausländer,IG BCE,IG BE,Industriegewerkschaft Bergbau und Energie
    Date: 2022
  36. By: Leandro Prados de la Escosura (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)
    Abstract: Well-being is increasingly viewed as a multidimensional phenomenon, of which income is only one facet. In this paper I focus on another one, health, and look at its synthetic measure, life expectancy at birth, and its relationship with per capita income. International trends of life expectancy and per capita GDP differed during the past 150 years. Life expectancy gains depended on economic growth but also on the advancement in medical knowledge. The pace and breadth of the health transitions drove life expectancy aggregate tendencies and distribution. The new results confirm the relationship between life expectancy and per capita income and its outward shift over time as put forward by Samuel Preston. However, the association between non-linearly transformed life expectancy and the log of per capita income does not flatten out over time, but becomes convex suggesting more than proportional increases in life expectancy at higher per capita income levels.
    Keywords: Well-being, Life Expectancy, Per Capita Income, Inequality, Health Transition, Preston Curve
    JEL: F60 I15 N30 O50
    Date: 2022–03
  37. By: Jorge Álvarez (Programa de Historia Económica y Social, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República)
    Abstract: Nueva Zelanda y Uruguay son pequeños países agroexportadores que alcanzaron altos niveles de ingresos por habitante a comienzos del siglo XX, pero que trazaron trayectorias divergentes a largo plazo en variables económicas clave como el PBI per cápita y la productividad del sector agrario. Entre 1930 y 1970, aumentó la brecha entre ambas economías en el marco de un modelo de crecimiento introvertido, caracterizado por la expansión del mercado interno y la industrialización con base en la sustitución de importaciones. El desempeño productivo del sector agrario y de las exportaciones agrarias fue clave para el crecimiento de ambas economías en el período. El principal objetivo de este documento es comparar la productividad del sector agrario de ambos países entre 1930 y 1966, con base en un conjunto de indicadores de producción, productividad y distribución factorial del ingreso en el sector agrario. Los principales resultados indican que el PBI agrario, el capital invertido y los insumos no factoriales crecieron a mayor ritmo en Nueva Zelanda que en Uruguay. También que los beneficios representaron una proporción del PBI agrario mayor en Nueva Zelanda que en Uruguay. En este país la propiedad de la tierra capturó una proporción de los ingresos más alta que en Nueva Zelanda.
    Keywords: Nueva Zelanda, Uruguay, productividad agraria, distribución factorial del ingreso
    JEL: N56 N57 O13 O47
    Date: 2020–12
  38. By: Sam Ashman (School of Economics, University of Johannesburg); Ben Fine (Department of Economics, SOAS University of London); Ewa Karwowski (Department of International Development, King's College London)
    Abstract: While research has highlighted that financialization critically affects African economies and societies through its effect upon commodity prices, international value chain participation, and land, there are few accounts of the systemic and macroeconomic importance of financialization for African societies; the big exception being work on South Africa. The South African case, despite its historical peculiarities, has a broader relevance for African economies since the country combines many characteristics typical especially for the sub-Saharan region – including resource richness, a persistent trade deficit, and a volatile exchange rate – while its financialization trajectory is ahead of other African economies because financial liberalization was pioneered as early as the late 1970s. This article summarizes the effects of financialization on South Africa, holding a warning for other African countries which have increasingly engaged in financial liberalization since the 1990s. Furthermore, we detail how financialization has facilitated and furthered corruption in South Africa, in turn undermining democratic processes. Thus, we contribute to research on financialization on democracy, a field hardly considered in the context of developing countries.
    Keywords: financialization; neoliberalism; South Africa; State Capture
    JEL: G00 H11 O1 P10
    Date: 2021–11
  39. By: Juan Carlos Cuestas (IEI and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Mercedes Monfort (IEI and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Javier Ordóñez (IEI and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)
    Abstract: In this paper we analyse the evolution of real estate prices in Spain in the last 50 years, focusing on the existence of rational bubbles, and to assess how to covid pandemic has affected the evolution of those prices. In order to do that, we estimate autoregressive models with structural breaks, and run a forecasting exercise to compare those values with the observed ones from 2020. We find that the real estate market in Spain has been hit by a continuum of bubbles since the 1970s and that the pandemic has negatively affected the real estate prices in Spain.
    Keywords: Spain, house prices, real estate, COVID19, structural breaks
    JEL: C22 F15
    Date: 2022
  40. By: Weshah Razzak (School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, Palmerston North)
    Abstract: Evidence-based policy re global warming is best relying on a relevant sample of data. Showing close correlation between CO2 and temperature over hundreds of thousands of years is irrelevant today. We choose a sample of annual data from 1959 to-date to provide some statistically robust stylized facts about the relationships between actual CO2 and temperature. Visually, there is a clear upward trend in both data. Time series analyses suggest that CO2 is difference-stationary and temperature is trend-stationary. Thus, the moments (mean, variance, etc.) of the data in levels are functions of time, which means that the correlation between the two variables may be spurious. However, we find no statistically robust evidence of correlation, long run co-variation, long run common trend, or common cycles between CO2 and temperature over a period of 60 years. Nonetheless, at most 40 percent of the variance of the Northern Hemisphere temperature is due to , 20 percent of the Southern Hemisphere, and much less of global temperature.
    Keywords: Econometrics of unit root, trend, cycle, VAR, temperature and global warming, CO2, greenhouse gasses, and fossil fuel consumption
    JEL: C01 C22 C3 Q54
    Date: 2021
  41. By: Banerjee, Sudipto (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Sane, Renuka (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Sharma, Srishti (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Suresh, Karthik (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)
    Abstract: This paper presents the history of disinvestment in India between March 1991 to December 2020. The history can be divided into four broad phases: 1991-1999 (Phase I), 1999-2004 (Phase II), 2004-2014 (Phase III), and 2014-2020 (Phase IV). There have been relatively few strategic sales, and governments have largely preferred the minority sale route.
    Date: 2022–03
  42. By: Grillitsch, Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University); Sotarauta, Markku (Tampere University); Asheim, Björn (CIRCLE, Lund University); Fitjar, Rune Dahl (University of Stavanger); Haus-Reve, Silje (University of Stavanger); Kolehmainen, Jari (Tampere University); Kurikka, Heli (Tampere University); Lundquist, Karl-Johan (CIRCLE, Lund University); Martynovich, Mikhail (Lund University); Monteilhet, Skirmante (University of Stavanger); Nielsen, Hjalti (Lund University); Nilsson, Magnus (CIRCLE, Lund University); Rekers, Josefine (Lund University); Sopanen, Sami (Tampere University); Stihl, Linda (CIRCLE, Lund University)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the role of human agency in 40 phases of regional economic development in 12 Nordic regions over 30 years. The paper contributes with a theoretical framework to study agency over time and a fuzzyset qualitative comparative analysis based on a unique dataset combining over 200 interviews, with printed and online sources, and quantitative data. The paper identifies which combinations of agency types and context conditions make industrial upgrading or diversification possible, and investigates how such combinations come into being. The causal claims from this analysis are illustrated with empirical examples and discussed in relation to previous literature.
    Keywords: regional development; industrial diversification; innovation; entrepreneurship; place-based leadership; institutions
    JEL: O10 O30 R11
    Date: 2022–04–04
  43. By: Luis Bertola (Programa de Historia Económica y Social, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to identify the main stages of Latin American economic development with respect to the kind of productive policy implemented by the States to promote growth and their implications for regional development. Productive or industrial policy is considered here not only as a sectoral policy, but also as a horizontal one. The relation between industrial and development policy and regional development is not obvious. Regional and local development has become a particular approach to development, departing from the fact that development always takes place in particular territorial environments. There has been always a tension in development studies, between theories that emphasize the existence of some universal development trends, and those who emphasize the specific features of different regions. Development studies, and local development theories, have always emphasized the limits of very general theories to understand the situation of les developed regions, which not only have different positions in the international or national arena, but also different social structures in general. Thus, policy must be specially designed according to the particular circumstances, why there is an important difference between development policies inspired by general theories and applied to a territory, and policies that depart from the particular features of a territory
    Keywords: Development; Latin America; Productive and industrial policy
    JEL: O20 O40 O43 O54
    Date: 2020–06

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