nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2022‒04‒04
24 papers chosen by

  1. Health, income, and the Preston Curve: a long view By Prados de la Escosura, Leandro
  3. Lessons learned? South Korea's foreign policy toward North Korea under the Moon Jae-in administration By Mosler, Hannes B.
  4. France's Colonial Sins In Africa: Is France Really Not An Accomplice To The Rwandan Genocide? By Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul
  5. In Search of Lost Trams: Comparing 1925 and 2020 Transit Isochrones in Sydney. By Bahman Lahoorpoor; David Levinson
  6. Agricultural transformation and market innovation: Theory, concepts, and definitions By International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
  7. Military Factions and Coups: Pathways to Power in Thailand By Johansson, Anders C.; Engvall, Anders
  8. Solving the longitude puzzle: A story of cocks, ships and cities By Martina Miotto; Luigi Pascali
  9. The Significance of Russia for Finnish Companies By Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki; Hirvonen, Johannes; Kangasharju, Aki
  10. A journey in the history of sovereign defaults on domestic-law public debt By Aitor Erce; Enrico Mallucci; Mattia Picarelli
  11. Changing Stability in U.S. Employment Relationships: A Tale of Two Tails By Raven S. Molloy; Christopher L. Smith; Abigail Wozniak
  12. Stopgappers? The Occupational Trajectories of Men in Female-Dominated Occupations By Torre, Margarita
  13. Interpolation and Shock Persistence of Prewar U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series: A Reconsideration By Daniel Levy; Hashem Dezhbakhsh
  14. The Shadow of the Neolithic Revolution on Life Expectancy: A Double-Edged Sword By Franck, Raphael; Galor, Oded; Moav, Omer; Özak, Ömer
  15. Don't reduce Amartya Sen to a single identity! By Antoinette Baujard
  16. Immigration Quotas and Anti-Immigration Attitudes: An Evaluation of Swiss Migration Policy By Qingyang Lin
  17. Estudos de História Empresarial de Portugal - Seguros By Ana Tomás; Nuno Valério
  18. Inteligencia artificial: una reevaluación By Andrés Fernández Díaz; Benito Rodríguez Mallol
  19. The long-term effects of student absence: Evidence from Sweden By Cattan, Sarah; Kamhöfer, Daniel A.; Karlsson, Martin; Nilsson, Therese
  20. Hayekian economic policy By Feld, Lars P.; Nientiedt, Daniel
  21. Northeast Asia in focus: Life, work and industry between the Steppe and the Metropoles, 1900-2020. Essays in commemoration of Flemming Christiansen's retirement - Festschrift By Moll-Murata, Christine (Ed.)
  22. Equality Denied: Tech and African Americans By William Lazonick; Philip Moss; Joshua Weitz
  23. Does it Pay Off to Demonstrate Against the Far Right ? By Nicolas Lagios; Pierre-Guillaume Méon; Ilan Tojerow
  24. Economic Planning in India: The Occupations of Free Women and Substitution with Enslaved Workers in the Antebellum United States By Barry Chiswick; RaeAnn Robinson

  1. By: Prados de la Escosura, Leandro
    Abstract: Well-being is increasingly viewed as a multidimensional phenomenon, of which income is only one facet. In this paper I focus on another one, health, and look at its synthetic measure, life expectancy at birth, and its relationship with per capita income. International trends of life expectancy and per capita GDP differed during the past 150 years. Life expectancy gains depended on economic growth but also on the advancement in medical knowledge. The pace and breadth of the health transitions drove life expectancy aggregate tendencies and distribution. The new results confirm the relationship between life expectancy and per capita income and its outward shift over time as put forward by Samuel Preston. However, the association between nonlinearlytransformed life expectancy and the log of per capita income does not flattenout over time, but becomes convex suggesting more than proportional increases in life expectancy at higher per capita income levels.
    Keywords: Well-Being; Life Expectancy; Per Capita Income; Inequality; Health Transition; Preston Curve
    JEL: F60 I15 N30 O50
    Date: 2022–03–29
  2. By: Juif, Dacil Tania
    Abstract: The skill composition of European migrants to the New World and their contribution to the human capital and institutional formation in destination countries are popular topics in economic history. This study assesses the skill composition of 19th century transatlantic migrants to Cuba. It finds that nearly half of the European immigrants originate from the Spanish province of the Canary Islands, which displays the lowest literacy and numeracy rates of Spain. Even within this province, those who left belonged to the least skilled section of the population. By promoting the influx of a cheap and poorly educated white workforce that replaced African slaves on their sugar estates, large landowners in Cuba contributed to the perpetuation of high economic, political and social inequality
    Date: 2022–02–12
  3. By: Mosler, Hannes B.
    Abstract: What are the characteristics of President Moon Jae-in's policy toward North Korea, and what lessons can be drawn for the future? More than 70 years have passed since the establishment of the two republics in 1948, during which continuous attempts have been made to achieve reconciliation, peace, and prosperity on the Korean peninsula. Even though the Korean War (1950-53) as well as the last authoritarian government in South Korea (until 1987) belong to the ever more distant past, neither, obviously, have the conflicts between the two Koreas ceased, nor has South Korea found a reasonable and effective way of addressing the conundrum. Against this backdrop of more than half a century of contentious inter-Korean relations, the paper examines the foreign policy (efforts) by the Moon administration (2017-2022) toward North Korea in order to shed light on challenges and opportunities for the future regarding the region of East Asia as well as inter-regional policy implications.
    Keywords: Moon Jae-in,North Korea,South Korea,foreign policy,two-level game,USA,EU,Korean Peninsula Policy,Eurasia
    Date: 2022
  4. By: Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul
    Abstract: Roughly speaking, the "Scramble for Africa" refers to the infamous invasion by the West European colonists between 1884 and 1914 of Africa and the dividing of the continent into different zones under the so-called names of protectorates, colonies, and free-trade areas. Hence, it can be said that West European colonialism set the stage for most of the deep sufferings of today's Africa by sowing the seeds of future conflicts through unbridled greed and selfishness. During the Rwandan genocide of 1994, members of the Hutu ethnic majority murdered as many as 800,000 people, mostly of the Tutsi minority. France did not have a direct role as a colonial administration in Rwanda. However, since France has historically played a leading role in the colonization of Africa, she tried to be the dominant actor in the region in every sense in the 1990s.France's efforts to manipulate domestic politics in Rwanda; its close ties with the ruling Hutu government; her arms sales to the country; her use of military force under the guise of defending the la francophonie (French-speaking world) and while doing so pushing aside the UN force; taking a stand with the Hutu forces in "Opération Turquoise" instead of being impartial as stipulated in the UNSC resolution caused France to be confronted with serious allegations that she was complicit with the Hutu in the Tutsi genocide in Rwanda.Recently published comprehensive report prepared by an US law firm upon the request of Rwandan government about the role of the French government in connection with the 1994 Genocide Against the Tutsi in Rwanda ends up with the conclusion that "the French government bears significant responsibility for enabling a foreseeable genocide." French President Emanuel Macron on 5 April 2019, by sending a letter to Prof. Vincent Duclert, a historian and Inspector General of French National Education, asked the establishment of a commission under his presidency to examine all the French archives concerning Rwanda, covering the years 1990-1994. The report prepared by the Research Commission (the Duclert Report) was presented to President Macron on 26 March 2021. It is mentioned in the report that "The Commission doubtlessly missed certain documents, those that either disappeared or were never deposited in public archival centers." It is understood from the statements of Duclert in the interviews he gave after the publication of the report that the President of the French National Assembly did not grant access to the archives of the Parliament on this subject. The Duclert report stated that “the French authority demonstrated a continual blindness in their support for a racist, corrupt and violent regime... The Rwandan crisis ended in disaster for Rwanda and in defeat for France.”. However, the report also claimed that France is not an accomplice to the genocide of the Tutsi. The report explained this point in the following way: “Is France an accomplice to the genocide of the Tutsi? If by this we mean a willingness to join a genocidal operation, nothing in the archives that were examined demonstrates this.” The 1990s constitute a "critical juncture" in world history.In this context, it should be remembered that notable political events and developments were concentrated in the 1990s.In fact, the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsis in Rwanda is one of the most horrific chapters of this "critical juncture". Despite what was written about the actions of French governments in Rwanda in the 1990s before, during, and after the genocide, the truth about the responsibility of the then French authorities continues to be obscured.
    Date: 2021–07–27
  5. By: Bahman Lahoorpoor; David Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney)
    Abstract: Has Sydney lost access by removing its extensive tram network? We compare the 1925 tram network with today’s bus network, and conclude that the access provided today exceeds what would have been provided by just trams. The Sydney CBD would have had better access if 1925’s central tram lines were still in operation.
    Keywords: Access, Public transit, Trams, Isochrones
    JEL: R41 N17
    Date: 2022
  6. By: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
    Abstract: Historically, agriculture was seen as a contribution that helped induce industrial growth and structural transformation of the economy. The structural transformation where the share of agriculture in gross domestic product (GDP) and employment declines as per capita income rises is well documented. Classical theorists, led by Lewis (1954), viewed economic development as a growth process of relocating factors of production from an agricultural sector characterized by low productivity and the use of traditional technology to a modern industrial sector with higher productivity. Economic transformation is triggered when agriculture realizes enough surplus in the form of food and commodities and product and factor markets begin to integrate across space, and workers begin to move out of agriculture to meet the demands of a growing industrial sector.
    Keywords: VIET NAM; VIETNAM; MYANMAR; BURMA; SOUTHEAST ASIA; ASIA; agricultural trade; agricultural development; agricultural productivity; value chains; markets; innovation; farming systems; economic growth; agricultural transformation; market integration
    Date: 2022
  7. By: Johansson, Anders C. (Stockholm China Economic Research Institute); Engvall, Anders (Stockholm China Economic Research Institute)
    Abstract: We study the effect of military factionalization on the likelihood of military coups. Thailand’s military is characterized by the internal power struggle between factions for control of leadership positions an annual reshuffle. Utilizing a unique largescale dataset of all changes in Thai military leadership positions from 1968 to 2018, we identify key factions within the military and examine their potential role in military coups. Factional strength as measured by control of top military positions is positively associated with the likelihood of a military coup. Moreover, factional strength when measured by senior-level positions is also positively related to the likelihood of a military coup. By estimating a panel vector autoregression it is shown that the relationship between military factional strength and coups is unidirectional. We argue that these findings reflect the importance of understanding the dynamic mechanisms within the structure of the armed forces when examining the likelihood of a new coups d’état in countries characterized by recurring military power grabs.
    Keywords: military; military coup; coup d’état; factions; Thailand
    JEL: D72 H56 N40
    Date: 2022–03–28
  8. By: Martina Miotto; Luigi Pascali
    Abstract: In the 19th century, the process of European expansion led to unprecedented changes in the urban landscape outside of Europe, with the urban population moving towards the coast and tripling in size. We argue that the majority of these changes can be explained by a single innovation, the chronometer, which allowed European explorers and merchants to measure longitude at sea. We use high-resolution global data on climate, ship routes, and demography from 1750 to 1900 to investigate empirically (i) the role of the adoption of the marine chronometer in re-routing trans-oceanic navigation, and (ii) the impact of these changes on the distribution of cities and population across the globe. Our identification relies on the differential impact of the chronometer across trans-oceanic sailing routes.
    Keywords: longitude, chronometer, gravity, globalization, trade, development
    JEL: F1 F15 F43 R12 R4
    Date: 2022–02
  9. By: Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki; Hirvonen, Johannes; Kangasharju, Aki
    Abstract: Abstract This Policy Brief analyses the importance of Russia on the Finnish economy. We scrutinize both the trade relations and the presence of Finnish firms in Russia and that of Russian firms in Finland. We will show how Russia was seen as a large opportunity for the Finnish economy in the first two decades after the collapse of Soviet Union. During the 2010s, relations have, however, weakened, due to economic sanctions and the devaluation of ruble. The relations reached such low levels by the new war in Ukraine that new sanctions will most probably not cause economic crisis in Finland. A recession outcome would need an escalation in war and/or more severe deterioration in energy and raw material markets. Nonetheless, growth will decline and inflation will spike.
    Keywords: Russia, Significance, Economy, Companies, Exports, Imports, Investment
    JEL: F23 F14 F51 F1
    Date: 2022–03–10
  10. By: Aitor Erce (Navarra Public University); Enrico Mallucci (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System); Mattia Picarelli (ESM)
    Abstract: We introduce a novel database on sovereign defaults that involve public debt instruments governed by domestic law. By systematically reviewing a large number of sources, we identify 134 default and restructuring events of domestic debt instruments, in 52 countries from 1980 to 2018. Domestic-law defaults are a global phenomenon. Over time, they have become larger and more frequent than foreign-law defaults. Domestic-law debt restructurings proceed faster than foreign ones, often through extensions of maturities and amendments to the coupon structure. While face value reductions are rare, net-present-value losses for creditors are still large. Unilateral amendments and post-default restructuring are the norm but negotiated pre-default restructurings are becoming increasingly frequent. We also document that domestic-law defaults typically involve debt denominated in local currency and held by resident investors. We complement our analysis with a collection “sovereign histories", which provide the fine details about each episode.
    Keywords: Public debt, sovereign default, domestic law, database
    JEL: E62 E65 F34 G01 H12 H63 K00 K41
    Date: 2022–03–10
  11. By: Raven S. Molloy; Christopher L. Smith; Abigail Wozniak
    Abstract: We examine how the distribution of employment tenure has changed in aggregate and for various demographic groups, drawing links to trends in job stability and satisfaction. The fraction of workers with short tenure (less than a year) has been falling since at least the mid-1990s, consistent with the decline in job changing documented over this period. The decline in short-tenure was widespread across demographic groups, industry, and occupation. It appears to be associated with fewer workers cycling among briefly-held jobs and coincides with an increase in perceived job security among short tenure workers. Meanwhile, the fraction of workers with long tenure (20 years or more) has been rising modestly since the early 1980s owing to an increase in long tenure for women and the ageing of the population. The rise in long tenure for women was broad-based across industries and occupations but limited to married women. By contrast, long tenure has declined markedly among older men. This is only partly explained by changing demographics and employment patterns such as the decline in manufacturing and unionization. In addition, an increase in mid-career separations during the 1970s and 1980s appears to have reduced the likelihood of reaching long-tenure for men. Survey evidence indicates that – despite these substantive changes over time – longer-tenure workers report no greater concern about job insecurity or decreases in job satisfaction than four decades ago.
    Keywords: Tenure distribution; New hires; Turnover; Retention; Long tenure; Job tenure
    JEL: J63 J11 J62
    Date: 2022–01–28
  12. By: Torre, Margarita
    Abstract: This study examines the determinants of men's exit from female-dominated occupations. Using census data and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data set, the author analyzes the job history of men employed in the United States between 1979 and 2006. Supporting the theoretical model, evidence indicates a group of stopgappersmen entering female-dominated occupations and leaving soon after their entry, thereby contributing to the perpetuation of segregation in female settings. By identifying the stopgapper occupational trajectory, this article contributes to the development of a comprehensive theory accounting for the way structural inequality is reproduced.
    Date: 2022–02–11
  13. By: Daniel Levy (Bar-Ilan University); Hashem Dezhbakhsh
    Abstract: The U.S. prewar output series exhibit smaller shock-persistence than postwar-series. Some studies suggest this may be due to linear interpolation used to generate missing prewar data. Monte Carlo simulations that support this view generate large standard-errors, making such inference imprecise. We assess analytically the effect of linear interpolation on a nonstationary process. We find that interpolation indeed reduces shock-persistence, but the interpolated series can still exhibit greater shock-persistence than a pure random walk. Moreover, linear interpolation makes the series periodically nonstationary, with parameters of the data generating process and the length of the interpolation time-segments affecting shock-persistence in conflicting ways.
    Keywords: Linear Interpolation, Random Walk, Shock-Persistence, Nonstationary series, Periodic nonstationarity, Stationary series, Prewar US Time Series
    JEL: C01 C02 E01 E30 N10
    Date: 2022–03
  14. By: Franck, Raphael; Galor, Oded; Moav, Omer; Özak, Ömer (Southern Methodist University)
    Abstract: This research explores the persistent effect of the Neolithic Revolution on the evolution of life expectancy in the course of human history. It advances the hypothesis and establishes empirically that the onset of the Neolithic Revolution and the associated rise in infectious diseases triggered a process of adaptation reducing mortality from infectious diseases while increasing the propensity for autoimmune and inflammatory diseases. Exploiting an exogenous source of variation in the timing of the Neolithic Revolution across French regions, the analysis establishes the presence of these conflicting forces - the beneficial effects on life expectancy before the second epidemiological transition and their adverse effects thereafter.
    Date: 2022–03–01
  15. By: Antoinette Baujard (Univ Lyon, UJM Saint-Etienne, GATE UMR 5824, F-42023 Saint-Etienne, France)
    Abstract: This paper reviews Amartya's Sen autobiography, Home in the World. A Memoir (Penguin Press, published 08/07/2021, 480 pages.ISBN: 9781846144868), focused on his thirty first years of life. I show that the book emphasizes how Sen values discussions and reason, the voice of each human being in their plurality, and their capacity to act in and on the world. I also support that, in this memoir, Sen succeeds in circumventing the standard misunderstandings of his major contributions, by taking seriously the different potential interpretations of the thinkers who influenced his line of thinking, and defending the one he considers valid. I illustrate this claim with five cases which, by highlighting his multiple identities, avoid associating Sen to a misguided tag.
    Keywords: Amartya Sen, Welfare, Discussion, Reason, Identities, Memoir
    JEL: B31 D63 D71 I31 I32
    Date: 2022
  16. By: Qingyang Lin (IHEID, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva)
    Abstract: Switzerland implemented an immigration quota system to manage the inflow of immigration between 1970 and 2002. This paper adopts a difference-in-difference strategy taking advantage of subnational variations in the implementation of the quota system to evaluate this migration policy. An instrument variable of antiimmigration attitudes is used to address the potential endogeneity issue. The author finds that the immigration quota system slowed down the growth of foreign population in Switzerland, but had no impact on unemployment. Moreover, such immigration restriction lowered the average skill level of the Swiss population which in turn hurt the productivity of the Swiss economy.
    Keywords: Migration; Anti-Immigration Attitudes; Unemployment; Labor Skills
    JEL: F22 J21 J24 J61 K37
    Date: 2022–03–28
  17. By: Ana Tomás; Nuno Valério
    Abstract: This working paper summarizes the evolution of the insurance sector in Portugal, both from the perspective of the regime established by the government, and from the perspective of the main firms that acted in the sector. This is the fourth working paper of a set that already includes working paper no. 68 on the railroad sector, working paper no. 69 on the tobacco sector, and working paper no. 75 on the banking sector, with the final purpose of preparing a Business History of Portugal.
    Keywords: Portugal, insurance sector, insurance firms. JEL classification: G22 seguros — insurance
    Date: 2022
  18. By: Andrés Fernández Díaz (Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales. Universidad Complutense de Madrid.); Benito Rodríguez Mallol (Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales. Universidad Complutense de Madrid. Title: Artificial Intelligence: A Reapraisal)
    Abstract: This article begins with a brief reference to the history of the Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) highlighting the great figures of George Boole, Kurt Gödel and Alan Turing. The algebra of the first, the undecidability theorem of the second and the advanced machine of the third marked the fundamental milestones of this evolution. The use of the binary system and the introduction of quantum mechanics is explained, which is a great step forward by being able to count on the advantages of quantum computer and algorithms, along with quantum statistics and other new complementary technologies. Regarding the controversy over whether A.I. can outperform Human Intelligence (H.I.) we conclude at the end of the work that enormous effort made on the way to the present allows us to affirm that Artificial Intelligence constitutes, in a certain sense, an asymptote of the Human Intelligence. Abstract: El artículo comienza con una breve referencia a la historia de la Inteligencia Artificial, (I.A.) en la que destacamos en sus respectivos apartados las eminentes figuras de George Boole, Kurt Gödel y Alan Turing. El álgebra del primero, el teorema de la indecidibilidad del segundo y la avanzada y determinante máquina del tercero marcan los hitos fundamentales de dicha evolución. Se explica el empleo del sistema binario, así como la introducción de la mecánica cuántica, lo que supone un gran paso hacia adelante, al poder contar con las ventajas de las computadoras y los algoritmos cuánticos, junto a la estadística cuántica y otras nuevas tecnologías complementarias. Respecto a la controversia sobre si la I.A. puede superar a la Inteligencia humana, tras un último epígrafe dedicado a este tema, concluimos afirmando que el enorme esfuerzo realizado en el camino recorrido hasta la actualidad permite afirmar que la Inteligencia Artificial constituye una especie de “asíntota” de la Inteligencia Humana.
    Keywords: A.I., Turing, Computadoras, Algoritmos, Cuánticos, H.I. Length: 43 pages
    Date: 2022
  19. By: Cattan, Sarah; Kamhöfer, Daniel A.; Karlsson, Martin; Nilsson, Therese
    Abstract: Despite the relatively uncontested importance of promoting school attendance in the policy arena, little evidence exists on the causal effect of school absence on long-run socio-economic outcomes. We address this question by combining historical and administrative records for cohorts of Swedish individuals born in the 1930s. We find that primary school absence significantly reduces contemporaneous academic performance, final educational attainment and labor income throughout the life-cycle. The findings are consistent with a dynamic model of human capital formation, whereby absence causes small immediate learning losses, which cumulate to larger human capital losses over time and lead to worse labor market performance.
    Keywords: school absence,educational attainment,long-term effects,register data
    JEL: C23 I14 I21 I26
    Date: 2022
  20. By: Feld, Lars P.; Nientiedt, Daniel
    Abstract: What is the appropriate role of the state in economic policy-making? This paper shows that Friedrich Hayek, who is often considered a proponent of laissez-faire liberalism, offers three different answers to this problem. First, Hayek argues that the state should provide a legal framework for competitive markets. Second, he proposes to employ the rule of law criteria - generality, equality, and certainty - to distinguish permissible from non-permissible state interventions. Third, he rejects deliberate legislation and moves closer to the Misean idea of a minimal state. The paper considers these answers in light of Hayek's analysis of the knowledge problem. We suggest that a Hayekian approach to economic policy-making should focus on improving the framework of general rules that guide individual behavior, thereby enabling spontaneous ordering processes and reducing the epistemological burden placed on policy-makers.
    Keywords: Friedrich Hayek,Rule-based economic policy,Spontaneous order,Knowledge problem,Cultural evolution
    JEL: B31 D78 P16
    Date: 2022
  21. By: Moll-Murata, Christine (Ed.)
    Abstract: Flemming Christiansen retired in March 2020 from the position of Professor of Social Sciences of East Asia and Political Sociology of China at the University of Duisburg-Essen in Germany. To mark the occasion, his friends and colleagues from the study group on Northeast Asia present him with a volume of collected essays on the topics they have worked on together in recent years.
    Date: 2022
  22. By: William Lazonick (The Academic-Industry Research Network); Philip Moss (The Academic-Industry Research Network); Joshua Weitz (The Academic-Industry Research Network)
    Abstract: Thus far in reporting the findings of our project "Fifty Years After: Black Employment in the United States Under the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission," our analysis of what has happened to African American employment over the past half century has documented the importance of manufacturing employment to the upward socioeconomic mobility of Blacks in the 1960s and 1970s and the devastating impact of rationalization - the permanent elimination of blue-collar employment - on their socioeconomic mobility in the 1980s and beyond. The upward mobility of Blacks in the earlier decades was based on the Old Economy business model (OEBM) with its characteristic "career-with-one-company" (CWOC) employment relations. At its launching in 1965, the policy approach of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission assumed the existence of CWOC, providing corporate employees, Blacks included, with a potential path for upward socioeconomic mobility over the course of their working lives by gaining access to productive opportunities and higher pay through stable employment within companies. It was through these internal employment structures that Blacks could potentially overcome barriers to the long legacy of job and pay discrimination.
    Keywords: African American, Black. Asian, higher education, employment relations, equal employment opportunity, professionals, technology companies, Silicon Valley, Equal Employment Opportunity (EEO-1) data, social networks, employment discrimination.
    JEL: D2 D3 D8 D91 E23 F22 F23 F66 G35 H11 H52 I2 J15 J21 J24 J31 J44 J53 J71 J82 L2 L63 M14 M5 N82 O15 O32 O36 P12
    Date: 2022–02–18
  23. By: Nicolas Lagios; Pierre-Guillaume Méon; Ilan Tojerow
    Abstract: We study how demonstrating against a far-right candidate changes the behavior of voters and ultimately impacts election results. To do so, we focus on the 2002 French runoff presidential elections which pitted far-right candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen against the incumbent, Jacques Chirac. Between the two rounds of the election, demonstrators protested Le Pen’s quest for power at roughly 300 demonstrations. Using rainfall as an exogenous source of variation in demonstration attendance across municipalities, we find that larger protests reduced the number of votes for Le Pen and the number of abstentions and blank or invalid ballots, and increased the number of votes for Chirac. We show that this positive effect on voting for Chirac results from left-wing voters who did not cast a blank or invalid ballot and right-wing voters who switched from Le Pen to Chirac. Next, we focus on the mechanisms behind these results to find that the 2002 demonstrations both reduced support for the policies advocated by Le Pen and signaled that voting for him was socially undesirable. Finally, we provide evidence that demonstrations affected voting mainly through local media coverage and spread out beyond the municipalities that hosted the demonstrations.
    Keywords: Demonstration; Election; Protest; Far-right; Populism
    JEL: D72
    Date: 2022–03–29
  24. By: Barry Chiswick (George Washington University); RaeAnn Robinson (George Washington University)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the occupational status and distribution of free women in the antebellum United States. It considers both their reported and unreported (imputed) occupations, using the 1/100 IPUMS files from the 1860 Census of Population. After developing and testing the model based on economic and demographic variables used to explain whether a free woman has an occupation, analyses are conducted comparing their occupational distribution to free men, along with analyses among women by nativity, urbanization, and region of the country. While foreign-born and illiterate women were more likely to report having an occupation compared to their native-born and literate counterparts, they were equally likely to be working when unreported family workers are included. In the analysis limited to the slave-holding states, it is shown that the greater the slave-intensity of the county, the less likely were free women to report having an occupation, particularly as private household workers, suggesting substitution in the labor market between free women and enslaved labor.
    Keywords: Women, Labor Force Participation, Occupational Distribution, Unreported Family Workers, Enslaved Workers, Immigrants, 1860 Census of Population
    JEL: N31 J16 J21 J82
    Date: 2022–04

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